Todem
Footballguy
I will of course stick to my guns on biggest suprise at RB and give my top 5 suprises and top 5 busts based on ADP, general expectations etc.
1) Chris Johnson - although he is no secret at all and was a first round draft pick but most were thinking of him as a COP/3rd down type. But those of us on the CJ3 train know better. This kid is going to be a star player and a huge PPR beast over the next half a dozen years. I am looking for at least RB2 type numbers this season easy.
2) Chris Perry - If healthy all year will take over the feature back role in Cincy and be a very nice sleeper this season. I could easisly see him rushing for just over a 800 yards and catch 40 plus balls making him a valuable 3rd RB and great flex option. But his upside is higher than that IMO.
3) Ted Ginn Jr - big jump this year to 63+ receptions and half a dozen TD's
4) L. Coles - everyone is touting Cotchery but this guy will be the reception machine for the now Favre led Jets offense. I see him as a Welker type wr for Favre. 80+ receptions for 1100 yards and 6 TD's. A super solid week in wek out guy. Cotch will have those 25 point weeks but Coles will give you those 15-17 point weeks almost all year. He is the true value play this season and next (if Favre sticks around).
5) Willie Parker - everyone is starting to write this guy off. I like Mendy. He is a great prospect. However FWP is the starter this season and may actually end being a much better goaline back if Mendy does not learn to run lower inside the 5 yard line. He is having trouble in short yardage believe it or not. I think this is not a full blown RBBC as everyone seems to think. Parker gets 70-80% of the work. He rushes for 1300 yards and also finds paydirt 9 times this season. Great value based on his current ADP.
Top 5 dissapointments:
1) Ryan Grant - those of you who have read my posts on him know I feel he was a huge benefactor of the Favre effect. I think he is a flash in the pan. i am not going to state all the reasons again. I will just say this. He is highly over valued and will perform as a RB3 this season. His adp suggests he should be an RB2 at a minimum and people truloy believe he will be top 10. I say prove it over 16 games.
2) Calvin Johnson - G-dly talent. I have no questions about his game. He is a stud. I just think expectations are very high and what people are overlooking is the Lions will not be throwing the ball as much as last season and Roy Williams will be getting his as well. I think those expecting the big breakout year will be dissapointed this season. When Roy leaves next year then the Calvin love will be in full force. I project 65-70 for 1000 and 6 TDs. A great 2nd year but not the top 5-7 numbers that I think are expected now.
3) Marshawn Lynch - Loads of talent but a bad team. I just don't see him putting up to 5-7 numbers with that team and QB. This one to me may bite me big time if Edwards is a true check down charlie.
4) Earnest Graham - a former 3rd stringer who was a pleasent suprise last season. I don't see him being what he is being drafted to be in a RB2. Warrick Dunn may be old...but he can still ball and will mixed in often. Graham is no workhorse and does nothing special at all. I see him barely cracking 1000 total yards. Yeah really.
5) Greg Jennings - part II of my Favre effect. How many games did we see 3 for 89 and 1TD. Forget that. Jennnings, a great talent and route runner will take 2 steps back with the change at QB. he is being drafted ahead of Driver who I think will be the better fantasy option week in week out. If Rodgers proves me wrong and has little drop off from Favre's production and superb deep ball then I will eat crow on this one.
1) Chris Johnson - although he is no secret at all and was a first round draft pick but most were thinking of him as a COP/3rd down type. But those of us on the CJ3 train know better. This kid is going to be a star player and a huge PPR beast over the next half a dozen years. I am looking for at least RB2 type numbers this season easy.
2) Chris Perry - If healthy all year will take over the feature back role in Cincy and be a very nice sleeper this season. I could easisly see him rushing for just over a 800 yards and catch 40 plus balls making him a valuable 3rd RB and great flex option. But his upside is higher than that IMO.
3) Ted Ginn Jr - big jump this year to 63+ receptions and half a dozen TD's
4) L. Coles - everyone is touting Cotchery but this guy will be the reception machine for the now Favre led Jets offense. I see him as a Welker type wr for Favre. 80+ receptions for 1100 yards and 6 TD's. A super solid week in wek out guy. Cotch will have those 25 point weeks but Coles will give you those 15-17 point weeks almost all year. He is the true value play this season and next (if Favre sticks around).
5) Willie Parker - everyone is starting to write this guy off. I like Mendy. He is a great prospect. However FWP is the starter this season and may actually end being a much better goaline back if Mendy does not learn to run lower inside the 5 yard line. He is having trouble in short yardage believe it or not. I think this is not a full blown RBBC as everyone seems to think. Parker gets 70-80% of the work. He rushes for 1300 yards and also finds paydirt 9 times this season. Great value based on his current ADP.
Top 5 dissapointments:
1) Ryan Grant - those of you who have read my posts on him know I feel he was a huge benefactor of the Favre effect. I think he is a flash in the pan. i am not going to state all the reasons again. I will just say this. He is highly over valued and will perform as a RB3 this season. His adp suggests he should be an RB2 at a minimum and people truloy believe he will be top 10. I say prove it over 16 games.
2) Calvin Johnson - G-dly talent. I have no questions about his game. He is a stud. I just think expectations are very high and what people are overlooking is the Lions will not be throwing the ball as much as last season and Roy Williams will be getting his as well. I think those expecting the big breakout year will be dissapointed this season. When Roy leaves next year then the Calvin love will be in full force. I project 65-70 for 1000 and 6 TDs. A great 2nd year but not the top 5-7 numbers that I think are expected now.
3) Marshawn Lynch - Loads of talent but a bad team. I just don't see him putting up to 5-7 numbers with that team and QB. This one to me may bite me big time if Edwards is a true check down charlie.
4) Earnest Graham - a former 3rd stringer who was a pleasent suprise last season. I don't see him being what he is being drafted to be in a RB2. Warrick Dunn may be old...but he can still ball and will mixed in often. Graham is no workhorse and does nothing special at all. I see him barely cracking 1000 total yards. Yeah really.
5) Greg Jennings - part II of my Favre effect. How many games did we see 3 for 89 and 1TD. Forget that. Jennnings, a great talent and route runner will take 2 steps back with the change at QB. he is being drafted ahead of Driver who I think will be the better fantasy option week in week out. If Rodgers proves me wrong and has little drop off from Favre's production and superb deep ball then I will eat crow on this one.
