David Yudkin
Footballguy
I figured we might as well get this off the ground and debate it for 6 years like we've done in the Hines Ward thread. By that time we should know where things stand with Big Ben.
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Ben Roethlisberger - first ballot HOFer? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Yudkin
- Start date
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Roethlisberger has taken the third most sacks* of any QB through age 29. He's seemingly injured all the time, and I wonder how he holds up over the rest of his career.
Neil Lomax was done at age 29. David Carr was essentially done. Bledsoe's career trailed off after age 30. Ken O'Brien was basically done by age 31. And the list goes on and on.
He's not Brees or Manning. He takes a lot of hits, often painful ones. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he started looking like an average (or worse) QB in a couple of years and never recovers.
With that in mind, too early to say.
*Individual sack data only began being available starting in 1969.
Neil Lomax was done at age 29. David Carr was essentially done. Bledsoe's career trailed off after age 30. Ken O'Brien was basically done by age 31. And the list goes on and on.
He's not Brees or Manning. He takes a lot of hits, often painful ones. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he started looking like an average (or worse) QB in a couple of years and never recovers.
With that in mind, too early to say.
*Individual sack data only began being available starting in 1969.
Last edited by a moderator:
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
He's already a 1st ballot HOFer
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Outside of Aaron Rodgers Ben has as good a HOF resume as any player under 30.
ivnabru
Footballguy
4 more years with current stats.
2 years past that with average stats.
4-5 more probowls even if they're reputation based.
No superbowls, but 4 more playoff seasons.
Maybe 4 more total playoff game wins.
I think that would get him in.
And I'd project him to do better than that when it's all said and done. So yes, I'd say there's a better than 70% chance at this moment that he'll end his career as a 1st ballot guy.
2 years past that with average stats.
4-5 more probowls even if they're reputation based.
No superbowls, but 4 more playoff seasons.
Maybe 4 more total playoff game wins.
I think that would get him in.
And I'd project him to do better than that when it's all said and done. So yes, I'd say there's a better than 70% chance at this moment that he'll end his career as a 1st ballot guy.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Ben just made his 2nd Pro Bowl in this his 8th season.By comparison, through 8 seasons, Hines Ward ranked 37th in most receiving yards through 8 seasons played by a WR. Roethlisberger ranks 7th in passing yards for QBs through their first 8 seasons played.
ivnabru
Footballguy
True, but who's battling him in the AFC? Manning (if he's back next year AND in the AFC), Rivers, Schaub am I missing anyone? Brady stopped going to Probowls so he probably doesn't count.That means he just has to finish in the top 3 of 15. Not to mention reputation makes probowl almost a legacy if you're having an average season especially on a good team which the Steelers usually are.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Too early to say. If he holds up health-wise, then probably. If he retires with 3-4 rings, he's almost a mortal lock based solely on that. He'll probably make a few more Pro Bowls too, thus far he's had the misfortune of having to fight for one spot with the entire AFC behind Brady and Manning, who may be the 2 best QBs that have ever lived (at the very least, they're in the top 5.) His per attempt numbers have historically been more eye-catching than the raw #s since the Steelers were always at or near the top of the table in run to pass ratio, but now that's changing quite a bit, so the aggregate numbers may follow. The problem is that offenses like NO, NE, and GB these days just pass non-stop, and he's never going to have 600 attempt seasons.
Right now, it just boils down to health. He's still in his 20s and has a lot of football left to play if his body holds up.
Right now, it just boils down to health. He's still in his 20s and has a lot of football left to play if his body holds up.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Oh, and before you ask, yes. Troy Polamalu is also a Hall of Famer.
The_Man
Footballguy
It's impossible to say yet if he's first ballot or not. But as a strong opponent of Hines Ward in the HOF, I'm an equally strong supporter of Roethlisberger as a HOF QB, especially if he continues his current trajectory.
It's interesting to me that these two Steelers, regardless of their stats, fall on different sides of the eyeball test. Ward has been a great competitor and a winner, but he's never stood out from his peers as a truly extraordinary player. Roethlisberger, on the other hand, is a truly special player with a unique ability to manufacture plays that would pretty much be impossible for any other QB in the league.
It's interesting to me that these two Steelers, regardless of their stats, fall on different sides of the eyeball test. Ward has been a great competitor and a winner, but he's never stood out from his peers as a truly extraordinary player. Roethlisberger, on the other hand, is a truly special player with a unique ability to manufacture plays that would pretty much be impossible for any other QB in the league.
The_Man
Footballguy
His numbers this year project to 547 attempts if he had started 16 games. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he gets 600 next year.
GridironMenace
Footballguy
Big Ben was never a dominant QB in the NFL, nor the AFC for that matter. He won SB's largely on the back of an elite defense and a studly power running game. Once the defense stopped being elite, Big Ben stopped winning SuperBowls.
Probowls are a popularity contest and a ton of players sit out that allow for guys like Big Ben (and Tim Tebow) to say they "made it".
With that said, he will probably get in simply for the fact that he has a few rings. But he isn't getting in on the first ballot.
Probowls are a popularity contest and a ton of players sit out that allow for guys like Big Ben (and Tim Tebow) to say they "made it".
With that said, he will probably get in simply for the fact that he has a few rings. But he isn't getting in on the first ballot.
The_Man
Footballguy
Was this written from the future? If so, please let us know when the Steelers' defense stopped being elite and how many SBs they won before that happened.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Roethlisberger's never made the playoffs when the defense didn't rank in the top 3 in points allowed.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
It's possible, but it's equally likely that he'll max out around 525-550. The Steelers' identity is to run the ball and stop the run. Tomlin has echoed that it's the style he prefers. They're not dumb enough to glue themselves to a game plan that will inhibit their offensive capability, but they've abandoned the run for the air more this year than I've seen in the last decade or so. I think they'd prefer to "ground and pound" more, and if they obtain the personnel (mainly OL) to facilitate that, they'll gravitate back that way.Steelers threw the ball 539 times this season and still ranked 19th in pass attempts. You have guys these days throwing 650-660 times, so Ben's probably never going to have as gaudy numbers as some of his contemporaries, that's just the way it's going to be. I'd much rather he retire as Troy Aikman than Dan Marino, though.
dgreen
Footballguy
600 attempts in 16 games is 37.5 per game.His ATT/GM so far:
Code:
YEAR ATT/GM2004 21.12005 22.32006 31.32007 26.92008 29.32009 33.72010 32.42011 34.2Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Now give me the % of seasons they had a top 3 defense in points allowed and also won the Super Bowl from 2004-present and compare that to the # of seasons they had a top-3 scoring defense and the # of Super Bowls they won from 1980-2004.
The Hank
Footballguy
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
The_Man
Footballguy
Interesting. Kind of amazing that his ATT/GM are up by 50 percent in just a few short years.
They are not a running team, even more so now that Mendenhall will be limited, at least in the early part of next year. Would you rather go with a gimpy Mendy, or Ben chucking it to Wallace, Brown, and Sanders?
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
They are not a running team right now, no. But even with that, they still run the ball 45% of the time, compare that with NE, NO, or Detroit. What I'm saying is that they want to, and if possible will, gravitate closer to a 50/50 split going forward. That's where they WANT to be.Interesting. Kind of amazing that his ATT/GM are up by 50 percent in just a few short years.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
You do realize that the Steelers won their last Super Bowl when Roethlisberger led a 2-minute drive for a TD at the end of the game after the defense completely collapsed in the 4th quarter, blowing a double digit lead, right? He didn't have a great game other than that, but that drive was money. To answer the question, if he wins another Super Bowl, absolutely. No way does a QB who wins three rings as a starter not get in on the first try.
treat88
Footballguy
This is the correct answer.Without that 3rd ring, there will always be a debate.With it there is none.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not sure how it happened, but PIT, NO, and PIT essentially all had a similar number of rushing attemtpts this year. But both NE and NO had a lot more passing attempts. For some reason, the Saints and Pats ran way more total plays.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Lock...3 SB trips, 2 rings, another 5-6 years still to go in the NFL, maybe another Super Bowl run along the way...he gets in for sure and most folks around the NFL regard him as a top3-5 QB no matter what the stats might say.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I don't see how anyone could make an argument that Big Ben is remotely even close to Rodgers, Brees, PManning, or Brady. Best case, Ben would be playing for 5th . . . and that's best case scenario.
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
He could retire after this year and he's a lock.
FUBAR
Footballguy
What about James Harrison and Casey Hampton?
spider321
Footballguy
...or Charlie Batch and Curtis Brown?
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
No doubt. He has 2 rings already and prolly will get more. And he got them in an era of great QBs. 1st ballot HOF fo sure.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
But where were Brees and Brady at age 29? Brees was a career .500 QB and Brady was mostly a game manager with a good D. Both entered their peak years at 30. Reasonable to believe Roethlisberger will do the same with two young stud WRs and an improving, young O-line.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Can't stand him. And yes.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
His women issues don't impact him at all?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Oh he's a scumbag, but so is Lawrence Taylor.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
If we are talking about quarterbacking a team to wins... he's better. (though I understand the Manning and Brady counteragument) We are talking abut the Hall of Fame, yes? Not the Hall of Stats.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Do you really think that Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Manning couldn't win if they had the #1 defense to support them? Really?
apalmer
Footballguy
Do you really think Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Manning would throw the ball as much as they do and put up the stats they do if their defenses didn't let the other team score so many points? Really?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
The Pats, Packers, and Saints each have had games where they were up by 40 points and STILL were passing and trying to score. So yes. They would still air it out. ESPECIALLY in the current state of the NFL.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
That's a ridiculous statement, but typical for a Steelers homer. Has the Steeler fanbase ever met a good Steeler that they didn't overrate?
AmosMoses
Footballguy
What issues?
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Him being a former serial rapist and all.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Is Ben a 1st ballot hof'r if his career were over today? Not imho; however, would he likely get in at some point? He gets my vote and I think it is more likely than not that he would make it.
He may be a lock for 1st ballot if he continues to play well and be sucessful over the next few years, but right this minute I don't think he is there quite yet.
He may be a lock for 1st ballot if he continues to play well and be sucessful over the next few years, but right this minute I don't think he is there quite yet.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
And that's exactly why basing HOF arguments purely on regular season statistics is comical.'David Yudkin said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Roger Craig ranks Top 3 in both yards from scrimmage and total TD in Super Bowls. That hasn't helped him much in terms of HOF balloting. Jim Plunkett ranks second in SB passer rating and won two titles.Sometimes post season stats matter . . . sometimes they don't.
sihaokills
Footballguy
Everyone is hating on him and saying the defense and run game helped him blah blah. The point of the NFL is winning, he made clutch plays at the most crucial times. No one man could bring him down and is phenomenal.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let's plug Ben into the GB or NO offense and see what kind of stats he produces. Despite all the rings that Brady, Brees, Manning, and Rodgers have won, Big Ben has still carved out his piece of the pie. Meaning he has faced the best of the best from this era and has 2 rings to show for it.'Frenchy Fuqua said:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Convictions?He's a married man, now stop this nonsense.'dickey moe said:
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