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Bernie Sanders HQ! *A decent human being. (5 Viewers)

Just Win Baby said:
And I think when it comes to an election, not enough people will vote non-trivial taxes upon themselves for him to win the Presidential election.

There is some discussion of his plan to pay for healthcare on page 399 of this thread. Here is one of my posts that shows that his plan to pay for M4A covers only half the cost. It shows households paying only an additional 4% in individual/household income tax, which is certainly less than their average premiums today. But his plan does not show where the other half of the money comes from.

His own plan says the 4% tax would generate $3.5T over 10 years. But he needs another 16.2T. To cover that with additional income tax implies increasing that individual/household income tax to ~18.5%, not 4%. Does that sound like something that will win a popular vote? I don't think so. How many healthy individuals/households do you know who would be willing to pay an extra 18.5% in income tax to primarily benefit others who are sicker? I don't know any.

But maybe he would do it another way. Maybe instead of a 7.5% additional income tax paid by employers, which he says would generate $3.9T over 10 years, he would impose a 30% additional income tax on employers. Except he can't feasibly do that because it would crush the economy and unemployment.

And that doesn't begin to address other ripple effects (e.g., unemployment for people working in the private healthcare industry, the fact that the stocks of these companies are a non-trivial component of the stock market, etc.).

That also doesn't begin to address how to pay for Sanders' other policies, like elimination of all student debt and free college education for all. IMO his overall platform is far too radical in terms of the effects it would have on our taxes, economy, and unemployment.

Bottom line, IMO there is no way to pay for his policies that will survive a popular vote.
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Far too radical, you are joking right?  I find being the only developed nation where life span is decreasing radical.  I find the wealth gap radical.  I find putting teenagers in debt that they will never recover from radical.  I find losing everything you own because you get sick radical.  I find making kids loans that can never be written off radical.  I find Amazon, Netflix, IBM etc paying zero corporate taxes radical.

But to each their own.

 
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IC FBGCav said:
Far too radical, your joking right?  I find being the only developed nation where life span is decreasing radical.  I find the wealth gap radical.  I find putting teenagers in debt that they will never recover from radical.  I find losing everything you own because you get sick radical.  I find making kids loans that can never be written off radical.  I find Amazon, Netflix, IBM etc paying zero corporate taxes radical.

But to each their own.
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No, I'm not joking. No matter what your beliefs about our current way of life and Government, Sanders is proposing massive change with a massive price tag that will be paid in large part by the voters. I call that radical change, and I don't believe the voters will go for it. :shrug:  

 
This terrifies @timschochet who's been harping on this "black vote" thing for too long. His boy Biden is in the fight of his life.

Exclusive Poll

"56% of African-Americans said they’d “consider voting for” Sanders in 2020 — a statistical tie with the 54% who said the same about Biden."

Also noteworthy:

Sanders does even better relative to Biden and the rest of the field among Hispanics: 47% say they’d consider voting for Sanders, while 37% said they’d consider voting for Biden. More Hispanics say they wouldn’t consider voting for Biden (37%) than wouldn't vote for Sanders (31%).

 
Just Win Baby said:
And I think when it comes to an election, not enough people will vote non-trivial taxes upon themselves for him to win the Presidential election.

There is some discussion of his plan to pay for healthcare on page 399 of this thread. Here is one of my posts that shows that his plan to pay for M4A covers only half the cost. It shows households paying only an additional 4% in individual/household income tax, which is certainly less than their average premiums today. But his plan does not show where the other half of the money comes from.

His own plan says the 4% tax would generate $3.5T over 10 years. But he needs another 16.2T. To cover that with additional income tax implies increasing that individual/household income tax to ~18.5%, not 4%. Does that sound like something that will win a popular vote? I don't think so. How many healthy individuals/households do you know who would be willing to pay an extra 18.5% in income tax to primarily benefit others who are sicker? I don't know any.

But maybe he would do it another way. Maybe instead of a 7.5% additional income tax paid by employers, which he says would generate $3.9T over 10 years, he would impose a 30% additional income tax on employers. Except he can't feasibly do that because it would crush the economy and unemployment.

And that doesn't begin to address other ripple effects (e.g., unemployment for people working in the private healthcare industry, the fact that the stocks of these companies are a non-trivial component of the stock market, etc.).

That also doesn't begin to address how to pay for Sanders' other policies, like elimination of all student debt and free college education for all. IMO his overall platform is far too radical in terms of the effects it would have on our taxes, economy, and unemployment.

Bottom line, IMO there is no way to pay for his policies that will survive a popular vote.
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You just won it all.  :thumbup:

 
ShamrockPride said:
I'd rather not. I'm sure between the newsbreak of her lie and the coordinated hit job last night with CNN, its completely halted the momentum I mentioned a couple posts up.
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Yea I was just being a wise ###... I think a lot of people see right trough it but I wouldn't want it to happen regularly.  After a while the old LBJ "Its not true but make the SOB deny it" thing will come true

 
"It may not be what you want, but I think it's what's gonna happen."

Chris Matthews on Hardball picking Bernie for Iowa

Even the MSM is starting to cave. It's inevitable.

 
Sanders camp yesterday reported in the 48 hours following the Warren smear campaign starting Monday, they brought in "nearly" 4 MILLION dollars on 200,000 donations, 25,000 of which were new, first time donors. Thanks Liz 😏

 
If Bernie came out and said his sole focus was going to go after the mega corporations and forget about all the free stuff, and a more moderate health care plan, he would win in a landslide.  

 
Gr00vus said:
The Bernmentum is happening.
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I would have disagreed based on yesterday. But the New Hampshire poll is very impressive for him. Warren is fading, Buttigieg is done. This appears to be a contest between Biden and Sanders (although Warren is rising.) 

As I see it, if Biden wins Iowa then this race is effectively over even if Bernie wins New Hampshire. But if Bernie can win New Hampshire AND Iowa it’s a serious race. 

 
timschochet said:
I would have disagreed based on yesterday. But the New Hampshire poll is very impressive for him. Warren is fading, Buttigieg is done. This appears to be a contest between Biden and Sanders (although Warren is rising.) 

As I see it, if Biden wins Iowa then this race is effectively over even if Bernie wins New Hampshire. But if Bernie can win New Hampshire AND Iowa it’s a serious race. 
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I don't think we know much until the March 3 results come in. You're putting too much stock in relatively meaningless state primaries with Iowa, New Hampshire and particularly South Carolina.

 
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timschochet said:
I would have disagreed based on yesterday. But the New Hampshire poll is very impressive for him. Warren is fading, Buttigieg is done. This appears to be a contest between Biden and Sanders (although Warren is rising.) 

As I see it, if Biden wins Iowa then this race is effectively over even if Bernie wins New Hampshire. But if Bernie can win New Hampshire AND Iowa it’s a serious race. 
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I wouldn't write either of them off at this juncture.    :coffee:

 
I’m simply more concerned that a Bernie nom will significantly increase the likelihood of a Trump re-election 

 
Gr00vus said:
I don't think we know much until the March 3 results come in. You're putting too much stock in relatively meaningless state primaries with Iowa, New Hampshire and particularly South Carolina.
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I think South Carolina is the easiest state to put stock into in terms of polling because black support of Biden is strong, consistent, and I don’t expect it to be affected by the results of Iowa and New Hampshire. 

 
Gr00vus said:
I don't think we know much until the March 3 results come in. You're putting too much stock in relatively meaningless state primaries with Iowa, New Hampshire and particularly South Carolina.
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The winner of Iowa has gone on to win the democratic nomination since Clinton (2nd term, so a but misleading I guess). NH missed in 2016 with Bernie, and 2008 with Clinton. SC missed only with Edwards over Kerry.

Iowa
Clinton, Obama, Obama, Kerry, Gore, Clinton

NH
Bernie, Obama, Clinton, Kerry, Gore, Clinton

SC
Clinton, Obama, Obama, Edwards, Gore, Clinton
 

 
I'm really feeling this #hotgirlsforBernie trend.  Any idea what the offdee scale conversion is for Bernie girls?  I'm guessing -4.

 
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Getzlaf15 said:
Emerson College Polling

@EmersonPolling

· 16h

Iowa Emerson College/@7News Poll:
Democratic Caucus:
30% @BernieSanders
21% @JoeBiden
13% @amyklobuchar
11% @ewarren
10% @PeteButtigieg
5% @TomSteyer
5% @AndrewYang
5% @TulsiGabbard
Click to expand...
Id imagine he would get a good amount of caucusers from Tulsi, Yang and maybe Steyer when they don't meet threshold

 
Yougov has Bernie and Joe within 1 point of each other and Buttigieg much higher.

Heres what I think: the Warren and Buttigieg support is soft. If it becomes likely between now and Monday that those guys aren’t going to get it down I think they bail for one of the top two. 

 
KiddLattimer said:
Uptick in articles going after Sanders supporters, instead of Sanders himself.  Bold move for a party already concerned they wont support an establishment candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/27/bernie-sanderss-trump-like-campaign-is-disaster-democrats/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/bernie-sanders-internet-supporters-2020.html
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Isn't anything bold about it - par for the course. Steer the narrative so the minions fight with each other rather than the puppetmasters actually pulling the strings.If we all wouldn't be so dumb and bite at that bait every time they lowered the lure than they wouldn't do it. We as a society are not that bright though.

 
KiddLattimer said:
Id imagine he would get a good amount of caucusers from Tulsi, Yang and maybe Steyer when they don't meet threshold
Click to expand...
" For Yang supporters, 49% of his support would fall to Sanders, followed by 18% who indicate would leave the caucus if Yang is unsuccessful in gaining caucus support. A plurality of Gabbard supporters (35%) will leave the caucus if she does not reach viability, followed by 26% who would move to Warren, and 18% who would move to Sanders. "

 
Mystery Achiever said:
" For Yang supporters, 49% of his support would fall to Sanders, followed by 18% who indicate would leave the caucus if Yang is unsuccessful in gaining caucus support. A plurality of Gabbard supporters (35%) will leave the caucus if she does not reach viability, followed by 26% who would move to Warren, and 18% who would move to Sanders. "
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Appreciate the info

Gabbard supporters to Warren more than Sanders is very surprising, I would have bet Bernie would have pulled a huge majority

 
Bernie only polling at 6% for second choice in Iowa could be an issue with it being a caucus state. I guess the voters there either love him or don't. He is now the betting favorite though to get the nomination. Bernie 8/5, Biden 11/5, Bloomberg third at 5/1. Steyer a whopping 500/1. Obviously it's highly unlikely he gets the nomination but tempted to throw a coupla giblets on him at that juicy number.

 
KiddLattimer said:
Uptick in articles going after Sanders supporters, instead of Sanders himself.  Bold move for a party already concerned they wont support an establishment candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/27/bernie-sanderss-trump-like-campaign-is-disaster-democrats/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/bernie-sanders-internet-supporters-2020.html
Click to expand...
First off Jennifer Rubin isn’t even a Democrat. She’s a conservative, and a Never Trumper, and like many others in her group (Rick Tyler, Max Boot, Bill Kristol, etc.) she believes that a progressive candidate will lose to Trump so she is hoping for a moderate Democrat. I agree with her. 

You can disagree with her, of course, but you’re making a mistake by accusing her of being part of this bogus Democratic Party establishment conspiracy. There is no evidence that the other article is related at all to the party, either. 

Please leave the conspiracies to the Republican Party. 

 
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