Best Ball community - week 17 bring backs hit. Postseason contests are open (1 Viewer)

[Grid71]

Hello. Ol Joe has been talking about community and bringing us together for all sorts of new content. Inspired me to make what may be my second or third FBG thread ever. That and a few of us bogging down a player thread with Best Ball content. BB is a funky animal since it's all about off season entertainment. We get to obsess about players and projections while drafting teams all the way up to week 1 kickoff. Then the pressure is off, watch the games and enjoy. No worries about setting lineups. No concerns over waiver pickups. Just watch football and ignore all those teams till week 14. Well, maybe root a little harder for your flag plants.

Introduction. My name is Dave from Ohio (originally PA). Work remotely a good bit on firewalls, routing, switching and contact center stuff. Shoot pool when I can and obsess over football. Fairly new to BB. Dabbled a bit last few years to get a better read on ADP instead of mock drafts. Found it fun especially when the entry is $3-10 per draft. Last year messed up drafting boomer heavy RB teams and over exposed myself with Nick Chubb and Justin Jefferson... oof. It was fun, but didn't win a whole lot back. Still it was very entertaining and i'm back diving in head first. For me it's not about an investment, it's entertainment and fun to puzzle out how to construct a decent roster from any slot & draft room. Trying to get better.

Underdog is where I play under handle H8FULHUCK
122 teams before the NFL draft
200 additional teams so far after the draft - only 23 BBMV rosters for a shot at that sweet sweet $1.5 mill top prize, not maxing that one
Live drafts are great when I can block off the time. Do quite a few slows with an 8 hour clock. Slow drafts help me max out a contest, but live is more fun.

Content: FBG has good stuff mostly from James Brimacombe aka Eaglezzz who calls out risers and fallers, drops some player takes. We can sort ADP specific to BB. I find myself playing youtube live streams of Underdog drafts in the background while at work. Content creators share their takes during live BB drafts and freak out now and then when players get sniped or take jabs at bad drafters in the room paying the rake.

FBG is a great community and hope you would join me to discuss strategies, roster composition, player takes, exposures and anything you'd like to share. Would be cool to get to know some of you better and root for one of us to cash in. Maybe hop into some drafts together, post/critique rosters.

 

[TripItUp]

Best ball started a few months ago buddy. I'm mainly an FFPC guy.

 

[Shaunz33]

Hi I’m Shaun. In TX (originally MA) I started to play a lot of underdog BB the last couple years. Will probably get to 1/2 max on bbm5 after maxing it last year. I like the eliminator so have done some of those. And puppy’s.

For BB content I follow shipchasing, Pat Kerrane, Liam, etc on YouTube. not sure what content creators you follow? Yeah eaglezzz seems to max everything.

One article FBG used to have that I thought was insightful was quality starts but haven’t seen in recent years. Helps understand if you are likely getting a consistent guy or boom/bust type. Strategy is what mix is best? I do use FBG for depth charts, rankings/projections, articles, etc. and
(for redraft/ dynasty (ffpc) I like FBGs weekly content including injuries, def matchups, etc)


Good luck.

Shaunz

 

[Shaunz33]

Also for bbm4 I was just avg for advance rate to week 15 (24/150). I had 3 teams week 16 but none to finals. I did get 1 puppy, 1 eliminator and 1 superflex big board (pre draft) to week 17 but no big cashes.

I think I was too fragile at Rb in last years with 4-5 average particularly if last one is a guy like Tank Bigsby. Ha. Though I did have 10% kyren last year

 

[Grid71]

Also for bbm4 I was just avg for advance rate to week 15 (24/150). I had 3 teams week 16 but none to finals. I did get 1 puppy, 1 eliminator and 1 superflex big board (pre draft) to week 17 but no big cashes.

I think I was too fragile at Rb in last years with 4-5 average particularly if last one is a guy like Tank Bigsby. Ha. Though I did have 10% kyren last year

10% Kyren was gold last year. Didn't hear of anyone having him more than 8%. Impressive ratio making it to week 15 @Shaunz33 you had a good shot to get a team through to BBM finals.

I've casually watched the content creators you've mentioned. Chris Spags is my absolute favorite. He's been in the BBM finals every year so far and drafted most of his rosters on live streams this year. Noticed some of the others seem to laugh off some of Chris' takes which is pretty fun to observe. I feel much better about my teams this year compared to the trash I drafted last year following Mason on Flock.

It's super early, but how are you liking your exposures so far this year? Posting mine shortly.

 

[Grid71]

275 Underdog BB teams after the NFL Draft in April
Royalty
2x field
I have Regerts

QB Exposure - These are the guys I am above chalk plus Purdy as the next in line. Biggest bets are on Washington and Houston to put up points this year.

1. Justin Fields 35.3% Drafted Went overboard here, but figured of all players available in the 18th round, Fields had the most potential to become a league winner in the playoffs. Massive surprise he's been the starter since week 1.
2. Jayden Daniels 24.7% Drafted
3. Derek Carr 14.2% Drafted
4. CJ Stroud 13.1% Drafted
5. Baker Mayfield 10.9% Drafted
6. Anthony Richardson 10.5% Drafted
7. Bryce Young 10.2% Drafted
8. Will Levis 10.2% Drafted
9. Jalen Hurts 9.1% Drafted
10. Kyler Murray 8.7% Drafted
11. Dak Prescott 8.4% Drafted
12. Geno Smith 8.4% Drafted
13. Brock Purdy 7.6% Drafted

Running Back exposures. Very high on Kyren and Jonathan Taylor when taking RB early. Most drafts were hero or zero RB. Sprinkled in stud RB roosters to mix things up when value was there.
Spags sold me on the Bucky Irving story and felt great about that position. Faded White hard and 1/3 of my teams will get a huge boost when Bucky becomes RB1. Spags wasn't high on Jaylen Wright or JK Dobbins. I like both a ton and appears I am 50/50 on that one. Massively excited about Dobbins potential of being a FF league winner. Can't wait for MarShawn Lloyd to get healthy. He will produce big time on limited carries in GB.

1. Bucky Irving 32.0% Drafted
2. Jaylen Wright 26.2% Drafted - already had an opportunity with Mostert injury and looked like a scared rookie
3. Kyren Williams 24.0% Drafted
4. JK Dobbins 23.6% Drafted
5. MarShawn Lloyd 21.8% Drafted
6. Jonathan Taylor 17.1% Drafted
7. Jerome Ford 16.0% Drafted
8. Jaylen Warren 15.3% Drafted
9. James Conner 14.5% Drafted
10. Jonathon Brooks 14.5% Drafted
11. Alvin Kamara 14.2% Drafted
12. Khalil Herbert 14.2% Drafted secretly hoped CHI would trade him to Dallas. He's talented and stuck with terrible coaches.
13. David Montgomery 13.8% Drafted
14. Najee Harris 12.7% Drafted
15. Raheem Mostert 12.4% Drafted
16. Zack Moss 11.6% Drafted
17. Chase Brown 10.9% Drafted
18. Ray Davis 10.9% Drafted
19. Brian Robinson Jr. 10.9% Drafted
20. Christian McCaffrey 10.5% Drafted could still be massive winner but no way I take him 1st overall being injured before week 1 and missing a significant chunk of the season.
21. Saquon Barkley 9.5% Drafted
22. Bijan Robinson 9.1% Drafted
23. Nick Chubb 9.1% Drafted
24. Zach Charbonnet 8.4% Drafted
25. Blake Corum 8.4% Drafted
26. Jaleel McLaughlin 8.4% Drafted
27. Breece Hall 8.0% Drafted
28. Gus Edwards 8.0% Drafted
29. Jahmyr Gibbs 8.0% Drafted
30. Aaron Jones 7.6% Drafted

 

[Grid71]

275 Underdog BB teams after the NFL Draft in April
Royalty
2x field
I have Regerts

WR exposures. Rice might be my best personal take overall. Spags may be betting against KC offence boucing back, but I was in. Posted my galaxy brain thoughts on KC in the Rice thread here at FBG. I'm down on Kelce, extremely high on Rice and felt good about Hollywood and Worthy... big whoops on Hollywood. He could have been great in this offense. McLaurin love mostly comes from being high on rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Should go without saying, stacking players on the same offense is a winning strategy in these big tournaments. Doubs was a big mistake, took way too many shares unintentionally. He just kept falling lower than I though he should be and took too much.

1. Rashee Rice 33.1% Drafted
2. Terry McLaurin 18.2% Drafted
3. Hollywood Brown 17.5% Drafted
4. Romeo Doubs 17.1% Drafted
5. Tank Dell 16.4% Drafted
6. Stefon Diggs 15.6% Drafted
7. Cooper Kupp 14.9% Drafted
8. George Pickens 14.5% Drafted
9. Justin Jefferson 14.5% Drafted
10. Brandon Aiyuk 13.5% Drafted
11. Xavier Worthy 13.5% Drafted
12. Jermaine Burton 13.1% Drafted liked his odds of being a big factor this season. Still might come along but not as high on him today.
13. Odell Beckham Jr. 12.7% Drafted - This is mostly a last round upside pick with a revenge game against Cleveland if the team makes it to the finals. Dart throw I like.
14. Demarcus Robinson 12.4% Drafted
15. Calvin Ridley 12.4% Drafted
16. Tee Higgins 12.4% Drafted
17. DeVonta Smith 12.4% Drafted
18. Amari Cooper 12.4% Drafted
19. Nico Collins 12.0% Drafted
20. Dontayvion Wicks 10.9% Drafted
21. Luke McCaffrey 10.9% Drafted
22. Christian Kirk 10.5% Drafted
23. Jauan Jennings 10.5% Drafted - Took a decent amount of this guy with all the Aiyuk trade talk. Jumped on the train early but it never left the station. Fortunately for me, he is making solid noise with Aiyuk in town. Lucky bonus!
24. Mike Williams 9.8% Drafted
25. Diontae Johnson 9.8% Drafted
26. Jahan Dotson 9.5% Drafted
27. Jayden Reed 9.1% Drafted
28. Tyreek Hill 8.7% Drafted
29. Zay Jones 8.4% Drafted
30. Jakobi Meyers 8.4% Drafted
31. Christian Watson 8.0% Drafted
32. Rashid Shaheed 8.0% Drafted
33. Chris Olave 8.0% Drafted
34. Jordan Addison 8.0% Drafted
35. Marvin Harrison 8.0% Drafted
36. Adam Thielen 8.0% Drafted
37. Puka Nacua 7.6% Drafted

TE exposures. Knowing Arthur Smith offenses rely heavily on TE and Muth being the #1 and only Pickens being a true starting WR in town, thought the volume was a lock. Still waiting... Not thrilled with my takes here so far. Wish I went harder after Bowers just shy of 8% chalk. True stud WR posing as a TE is a good pick. Need to remember that lesson...

1. Pat Freiermuth 22.9% Drafted
2. Dalton Schultz 16.7% Drafted
3. TJ Hockenson 16.0% Drafted
4. Ben Sinnott 16.0% Drafted
5. Juwan Johnson 14.5% Drafted
6. Isaiah Likely 13.8% Drafted
7. Evan Engram 12.0% Drafted
8. Dallas Goedert 12.0% Drafted
9. David Njoku 10.9% Drafted
10. Trey McBride 10.2% Drafted
11. Sam LaPorta 9.1% Drafted
12. George Kittle 8.4% Drafted
13. Noah Fant 8.4% Drafted
14. Brock Bowers 7.3% Drafted
15. Cole Kmet 7.3% Drafted

 

[Shaunz33]

@Grid71
Thanks for sharing. I’ll have to read in detail later and do my version. Btw I see your Rice ownership which I was 2x field on him (16%) but today is concerning. Bucky looked good.

For BBMV you can find useful info here https://bbmdb.com

For some reason I seem to do well in superflex. Right now (which I know is very early) I have 11 of my 26 puppy SF in top 2.

Yeah I never thought much of Flock. Spags is ok. I think he, like Davis Mattek, can turn some folks off by seeming a bit arrogant or over confident at times. (I liked Mattek’s perspective on Kryen last summer so that helped me)

 

[ZWK]

I missed this thread during draft season.

I've posted my Underdog tournament exposures here (152 drafts), and here for superflex (17 drafts). Some graphs and opinions from earlier in draft season here.

I like the historical data & analysis from Michael Leone and Hayden Winks.

One place that I haven't followed the historical "what's worked?" data this year is that I invested more than average in RB and less in WR, since I think the year-to-year changes in positional ADP have been an overcorrection.

 

[Grid71]

Josh Downs paired with AR looks very good from yesterday's game. Could work out great for you ZWK. Like your QB distribution too. Will dive into Leone and Winks analysis. Thank you for the links.

I only joined 6 superflex this year. Way too early team status are at 2,3,4,5,7 and 10. Have Rashee Rice on 83% of these... ouch.


Has anyone else tried out the new best ball Overlay tool? It looks amazing to me. Helps you manage exposures and identify playoff correlation. I'm planning to use it next year.

 

[cheese]

How are you guys doing? @Grid71 @ZWK I'm right around expectation, currently advancing 14/72 BBM and a little lower than that in all the smaller stuff.

My biggest problem is just being light on Henry and Barkley. The guys I did focus on have been fine, but it's hard to be much better than average without those 2.

I have 1 team still surviving in the main eliminator which could get fun if it makes it all the way through the byes.

My highest scoring team is a Burrow/Chase/Higgins team with Cook/Mixon/Montgomery at RB.
My favorite team for the BBM playoffs is a Lamar Balt stack with CMC, Kamara, BRobinson, Conner as the RBs.

 

[Grid71]

How are you guys doing? @Grid71 @ZWK I'm right around expectation, currently advancing 14/72 BBM and a little lower than that in all the smaller stuff.

My biggest problem is just being light on Henry and Barkley. The guys I did focus on have been fine, but it's hard to be much better than average without those 2.

I have 1 team still surviving in the main eliminator which could get fun if it makes it all the way through the byes.

My highest scoring team is a Burrow/Chase/Higgins team with Cook/Mixon/Montgomery at RB.
My favorite team for the BBM playoffs is a Lamar Balt stack with CMC, Kamara, BRobinson, Conner as the RBs.

Looking great Cheese! 14/72 is well above average.

You are well ahead of me but I was over zealous on Rice and being the first year going hard with drafts expectations are low. Hoping to use this year as a learning experience and maybe find an acorn.

Big board pre-NFL draft have 16/82 advancing. Best team struck gold at RB sitting at 1447 points
Geno Drake Rodgers
Kyren Jacobs Henry ChaseBrown K Hunt
Wilson DK London and a merry band of meh
Kraft Conklin

BBMV only 2 of 23 entries advancing as of today. Best team at 1467 points
Lamar stacked with Likely
Kyren Monty Conner Dobbins
CeeDee DeVonta Cooper
Jonnu Njoku

Decided to take more shots with smaller contests to gain experience drafting teams and bullets to maybe get lucky. Plus I had fun drafting all those 3-5 $ teams.

Will definitely check in after round 1 is complete. Evaluate the fallout of this entertaining ride.

 

[ZWK]

I'm having a great year on Underdog so far. Currently on track to advance 54/152 of my tournament teams that use the BBM or Sprint player pool (36%, avg is 17%), including 15/39 BBM teams (39%). Also 6/17 of my superflex teams (35%).

Probably the thing that has mattered the most is that I prioritized RB over WR in the early rounds, relative to what the field was doing. On average I had just over 1 RB more than the field did through 8 rounds, and about 1 fewer WR. I thought the field was overrating WRs and the RBs were better bets for fantasy points at most points during the first 10 rounds, and that has gone even better than expected with this year's weird WR-heavy injury pattern. I also made some good calls on individual players. I am overweight on all of the top 6 players: Saquon Barkley (22%), Alvin Kamara (16%), Lamar Jackson (14%), Derrick Henry (13%), Ja'Marr Chase (10%), and Joe Mixon (9%).

My highest scoring BBM team is a funny looking one where I spent my first 8 picks on 1 WR, 5 RBs, and 2 unstacked QBs. It includes J Chase, D Henry, and A Kamara, but is down to only Mahomes at QB with Dak's injury.

 

[Grid71]

Spilled in stud RB but mostly drafted zero or hero RB strategy. The WR injuries have been brutal.

Rooting for you!

 

[Shaunz33]

So far I’m happy with 15/74 on BBM. I had a lot of Rice or Aiyuk but most of my advancing teams don’t have them. I was underweight in Saquon and Henry so won’t be rooting for them in playoffs.

Mixed bag in smaller tourneys. Great in puppy SF with 9/26 but terrible in fast puppy with 0/26. Shrug. Averages fine and prob good to have lots of bullets in one tourney.

And all of my 4 teams in the smaller, max 1 or 5 entry tourneys are currently in. (Greyhound, Pitbull, Hound), those will be interesting as playoff weeks are only about 1/5 or so to advance.

Good luck all

 

[Grid71]

Underdog round 1 is complete. Finally time to check our best ball teams and see how many advance to the playoff bloodbath.

summary 83 bullets
Pre-draft 25% advanced 32 of 127 teams

Post-draft 21% advanced 51 of 241 teams including 3 of 23 BBMV entries

I am right on par for pre-draft because 3 of 12 teams advance in most contests.

Slightly ahead of the field post draft entries 21% vs 17%. This is a surprise to me since it’s my first year making a serious effort and my most drafted receiver Rashee Rice (33% roostered) was lost for the season early on. If he stayed healthy, I’d be streaking across the gridiron with a belly full of bourbon.

How are your portfolios? Sounds like we have some real sharks here ready to feed on the guppies.

 

[Shaunz33]

Hey man, decent results for first year. good luck. I have 42 bullets.

For Underdog my summary is
Pre-draft 6 out of 27 including 5/21 big boards.So BB was avg

2/8 (avg) for Rookies & Sophmores drafts

Post draft
BBMV 16/74 (21.6% vs 16.7% avg). Happy with that. I had a lot of Rice as well as Aiyuk
Puppy 1/2/3: 6/73. Terrible. 1/2 of expected
Superflex puppy 8/26. good. ~2x expected
2/2 for hound dog
1/1 Greyhound ($35 one entry max)
Handful of other random one-off drafts that mostly missed 1/11

In FFPC my fantasypros team put up a lot of points during season though lost league final 197-195 which are very high scores. Though I was 47 / 20,000 in regular season points so have a good start in the ~3300 team playoff tourney.
I also did advance my 1 terminator team in FFPC, which I’ve really like playing that for 10+ years. Best ever was 2nd place ($5k)

Good luck !

 

[ZWK]

I'm having a great year on Underdog so far. Currently on track to advance 54/152 of my tournament teams that use the BBM or Sprint player pool (36%, avg is 17%), including 15/39 BBM teams (39%). Also 6/17 of my superflex teams (35%).

Probably the thing that has mattered the most is that I prioritized RB over WR in the early rounds, relative to what the field was doing. On average I had just over 1 RB more than the field did through 8 rounds, and about 1 fewer WR. I thought the field was overrating WRs and the RBs were better bets for fantasy points at most points during the first 10 rounds, and that has gone even better than expected with this year's weird WR-heavy injury pattern. I also made some good calls on individual players. I am overweight on all of the top 6 players: Saquon Barkley (22%), Alvin Kamara (16%), Lamar Jackson (14%), Derrick Henry (13%), Ja'Marr Chase (10%), and Joe Mixon (9%).

My highest scoring BBM team is a funny looking one where I spent my first 8 picks on 1 WR, 5 RBs, and 2 unstacked QBs. It includes J Chase, D Henry, and A Kamara, but is down to only Mahomes at QB with Dak's injury.

I wound up advancing 45/152 tournaments teams with the BBM or Sprint player pool (30%, avg is 17%), including 14/39 BBM teams (36%). Also 6/17 superflex (35%).

I've added my advance rate by player, and the overall BBM contest advance rate by player, to my exposures spreadsheet. I was overweight on 8 of the 10 most advancing players, and 8 of my 10 most-drafted players had an above average advance rate; Saquon Barkley is the one guy in both top 10 lists.

By draft slot: I had a 5% advance rate from the 1 slot, 53% from the 2-5 slots (and relatively flat in that range), 24% from the 6-11 slots (and relatively flat in that range), and 11% from the 12 slot. Here is how that breakdown looked for the field as a whole.

Here are my advance rate by build (QB-RB-WR-TE), with the fraction of rosters that used that build in parentheses. My 2 QB teams generally did better than my 3 QB teams, and my 6 RB teams generally did better than my 5 RB teams.
40% 2-6-8-2 (0.13)
36% 2-5-8-3 (0.22)
36% 2-6-7-3 (0.07)
27% 3-6-7-2 (0.07)
25% 3-5-8-2 (0.24)
19% 2-5-9-2 (0.14)
17% 3-5-7-3 (0.12)

 

[Grid71]

Good luck gentlemen!

impressive breakdown @ZWK and fantastic results.

Those are very interesting metrics you are tracking. Might take the time to do that myself next year.

 

[Shaunz33]

I am down to 2 BBM and 2 Puppy SF heading into week 16. It’s decent result. I had 2 other BBM teams that had very close loses / 2nd place (0.3 loss in one and the other one Doubs’ 2nd touchdown leapfrogged my team)

I like this BBM team I have left and it has some differentiation (not many Pacheco/Deebo teams got out of regular season, never-mind past week 15. Will they breakout?)

QB: Burrow, Cousins, Mayfield
RB: Pacheco, Swift, Spears, Ford, Bucky
WR: Chase, Deebo, Evans, McLaurin, Worthy, Diontae, Mooney
TE: Jonnu, Giesecki, Parkinson

 

[Grid71]

I am down to 2 BBM and 2 Puppy SF heading into week 16. It’s decent result. I had 2 other BBM teams that had very close loses / 2nd place (0.3 loss in one and the other one Doubs’ 2nd touchdown leapfrogged my team)

I like this BBM team I have left and it has some differentiation (not many Pacheco/Deebo teams got out of regular season, never-mind past week 15. Will they breakout?)

QB: Burrow, Cousins, Mayfield
RB: Pacheco, Swift, Spears, Ford, Bucky
WR: Chase, Deebo, Evans, McLaurin, Worthy, Diontae, Mooney
TE: Jonnu, Giesecki, Parkinson

Painful to miss the cut by such a small margin. Your favorite team has a nice mix of players. I like it too.

 

[Grid71]

Bakers Dozen from 83 teams advanced to the semifinals. No ROI expectations, but it's exciting to have bullets left in the chamber during the playoffs.
Pre-draft 3 of 32 (9%) oof
Post-draft 10 of 51 (19.6%)

1 of 3 BBMV advanced but lost Montgomery. On thin ice at RB with just Kyren and Connor on this injury riddled squad. Realistically this team doesn't have a shot to win.

Sadly lost some very good Big Board teams with only 1 of 21 advancing. Bright side, most players on that squad are healthy.

I had loads of fun drafting all offseason and looking forward to start drafting for 2025 as sick as that sounds. Didn't take enough advantage of loading up on players with unknown situations in the pre-draft portion. Learned uncertainty leads to buy low opportunities. Getting Saquon and Henry rounds 5 or later was a gift I didn't exploit enough. Stand by my call drafting 33% Rashee Rice despite the injury. Snapping him up in rounds 5 and 6 was a golden opportunity. Being over weight 4x the field is risky but should have paid off. I'm very fortunate to have done so well despite that loss.

 

[cheese]

That team posted above is going to be unique for sure. I’m down to 3 BBM teams and all 3 are ARSB/Goff teams so I am going to need secondary stuff to hit. The best thing for me would be a Stafford/Kupp throwback game.

Good luck guys. Sneak 1 through this week and it pays for the whole season.

 

[Grid71]

That team posted above is going to be unique for sure. I’m down to 3 BBM teams and all 3 are ARSB/Goff teams so I am going to need secondary stuff to hit. The best thing for me would be a Stafford/Kupp throwback game.

Good luck guys. Sneak 1 through this week and it pays for the whole season.

ARSB has been on two winning BBM rosters. BBM2 and 4. Good company

 

[Shaunz33]

I am down to 2 BBM and 2 Puppy SF heading into week 16. It’s decent result. I had 2 other BBM teams that had very close loses / 2nd place (0.3 loss in one and the other one Doubs’ 2nd touchdown leapfrogged my team)

I like this BBM team I have left and it has some differentiation (not many Pacheco/Deebo teams got out of regular season, never-mind past week 15. Will they breakout?)

QB: Burrow, Cousins, Mayfield
RB: Pacheco, Swift, Spears, Ford, Bucky
WR: Chase, Deebo, Evans, McLaurin, Worthy, Diontae, Mooney
TE: Jonnu, Giesecki, Parkinson

Didn’t make it. Needed 10 more from TB guys last night. Oh well. No Underdog teams left in any contest. Well except most of my playoff contest teams are still alive

 

[Grid71]

Jayden Daniels on 6 of 13 teams in the semi-finals, so several currently in 1st or striking distance. One team advancing for sure with Jayden, Jonathan Taylor and Justin Jefferson. Very likely getting 3 teams to the finals and reasonable shot for up to 3 others.

Gonna be PUMPED if my Big Board team makes it. Tonight have Love -12.8, Jacobs, Doubs, Wicks, Musgrave and Juwan. Have make up 20 points. Rooting for a big GB fantasy turnout tonight

Worst performing team was my lone BBM entry. Just too many injuries to survive.

 

[Shaunz33]

Jayden Daniels on 6 of 13 teams in the semi-finals, so several currently in 1st or striking distance. One team advancing for sure with Jayden, Jonathan Taylor and Justin Jefferson. Very likely getting 3 teams to the finals and reasonable shot for up to 3 others.

Gonna be PUMPED if my Big Board team makes it. Tonight have Love -12.8, Jacobs, Doubs, Wicks, Musgrave and Juwan. Have make up 20 points. Rooting for a big GB fantasy turnout tonight

Worst performing team was my lone BBM entry. Just too many injuries to survive.

Awesome. Good luck tonight and next week @Grid71.
I’m ready for 2025 contests

 

[ZWK]

I'm having a great year on Underdog so far. Currently on track to advance 54/152 of my tournament teams that use the BBM or Sprint player pool (36%, avg is 17%), including 15/39 BBM teams (39%). Also 6/17 of my superflex teams (35%).

Probably the thing that has mattered the most is that I prioritized RB over WR in the early rounds, relative to what the field was doing. On average I had just over 1 RB more than the field did through 8 rounds, and about 1 fewer WR. I thought the field was overrating WRs and the RBs were better bets for fantasy points at most points during the first 10 rounds, and that has gone even better than expected with this year's weird WR-heavy injury pattern. I also made some good calls on individual players. I am overweight on all of the top 6 players: Saquon Barkley (22%), Alvin Kamara (16%), Lamar Jackson (14%), Derrick Henry (13%), Ja'Marr Chase (10%), and Joe Mixon (9%).

My highest scoring BBM team is a funny looking one where I spent my first 8 picks on 1 WR, 5 RBs, and 2 unstacked QBs. It includes J Chase, D Henry, and A Kamara, but is down to only Mahomes at QB with Dak's injury.

I wound up advancing 45/152 tournaments teams with the BBM or Sprint player pool (30%, avg is 17%), including 14/39 BBM teams (36%). Also 6/17 superflex (35%).

I've added my advance rate by player, and the overall BBM contest advance rate by player, to my exposures spreadsheet. I was overweight on 8 of the 10 most advancing players, and 8 of my 10 most-drafted players had an above average advance rate; Saquon Barkley is the one guy in both top 10 lists.

By draft slot: I had a 5% advance rate from the 1 slot, 53% from the 2-5 slots (and relatively flat in that range), 24% from the 6-11 slots (and relatively flat in that range), and 11% from the 12 slot. Here is how that breakdown looked for the field as a whole.

Here are my advance rate by build (QB-RB-WR-TE), with the fraction of rosters that used that build in parentheses. My 2 QB teams generally did better than my 3 QB teams, and my 6 RB teams generally did better than my 5 RB teams.
40% 2-6-8-2 (0.13)
36% 2-5-8-3 (0.22)
36% 2-6-7-3 (0.07)
27% 3-6-7-2 (0.07)
25% 3-5-8-2 (0.24)
19% 2-5-9-2 (0.14)
17% 3-5-7-3 (0.12)

Looks like I'll have 4 teams in the finals, 2 Mini Schnauzer variants and 2 superflex (1 SF Pug, 1 SF Puppy). So none are BBM, all $3-$12 buyin with less aggressive cuts.

Josh Downs, Chuba Hubbard, and Jonnu Smith are each on 3 of my 4 finals teams. James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary, Justin Herbert, and Hunter Henry are each on 2, and my SF teams both have Aidan O'Connell, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and Tyrod Taylor.

Teams remaining by round
All 4-round tournaments (including SF): 149->47->7->4
BBM: 39->14->1->0

 

[Grid71]

I'm having a great year on Underdog so far. Currently on track to advance 54/152 of my tournament teams that use the BBM or Sprint player pool (36%, avg is 17%), including 15/39 BBM teams (39%). Also 6/17 of my superflex teams (35%).

Probably the thing that has mattered the most is that I prioritized RB over WR in the early rounds, relative to what the field was doing. On average I had just over 1 RB more than the field did through 8 rounds, and about 1 fewer WR. I thought the field was overrating WRs and the RBs were better bets for fantasy points at most points during the first 10 rounds, and that has gone even better than expected with this year's weird WR-heavy injury pattern. I also made some good calls on individual players. I am overweight on all of the top 6 players: Saquon Barkley (22%), Alvin Kamara (16%), Lamar Jackson (14%), Derrick Henry (13%), Ja'Marr Chase (10%), and Joe Mixon (9%).

My highest scoring BBM team is a funny looking one where I spent my first 8 picks on 1 WR, 5 RBs, and 2 unstacked QBs. It includes J Chase, D Henry, and A Kamara, but is down to only Mahomes at QB with Dak's injury.

I wound up advancing 45/152 tournaments teams with the BBM or Sprint player pool (30%, avg is 17%), including 14/39 BBM teams (36%). Also 6/17 superflex (35%).

I've added my advance rate by player, and the overall BBM contest advance rate by player, to my exposures spreadsheet. I was overweight on 8 of the 10 most advancing players, and 8 of my 10 most-drafted players had an above average advance rate; Saquon Barkley is the one guy in both top 10 lists.

By draft slot: I had a 5% advance rate from the 1 slot, 53% from the 2-5 slots (and relatively flat in that range), 24% from the 6-11 slots (and relatively flat in that range), and 11% from the 12 slot. Here is how that breakdown looked for the field as a whole.

Here are my advance rate by build (QB-RB-WR-TE), with the fraction of rosters that used that build in parentheses. My 2 QB teams generally did better than my 3 QB teams, and my 6 RB teams generally did better than my 5 RB teams.
40% 2-6-8-2 (0.13)
36% 2-5-8-3 (0.22)
36% 2-6-7-3 (0.07)
27% 3-6-7-2 (0.07)
25% 3-5-8-2 (0.24)
19% 2-5-9-2 (0.14)
17% 3-5-7-3 (0.12)

Looks like I'll have 4 teams in the finals, 2 Mini Schnauzer variants and 2 superflex (1 SF Pug, 1 SF Puppy). So none are BBM, all $3-$12 buyin with less aggressive cuts.

Josh Downs, Chuba Hubbard, and Jonnu Smith are each on 3 of my 4 finals teams. James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary, Justin Herbert, and Hunter Henry are each on 2, and my SF teams both have Aidan O'Connell, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and Tyrod Taylor.

Teams remaining by round
All 4-round tournaments (including SF): 149->47->7->4
BBM: 39->14->1->0

Congrats getting 4 teams through! Hopefully Kamara makes it back for the finals. Have him on one of my schnauzer teams too. Good luck!

 

[Grid71]

Four teams through to finals. All 3 buck chuck entries. 2 Pomeranian, Mini-Schnauzer 3 & Mini-Schnauzer 6
Sadly the big board entry didn't make it. Packers spread out the points too much. Needed a big game focused on a couple players. Despite that, feel very fortunate to have multiple teams in the finals.

3 Jayden Daniels paired with Ben Sinnott
2 Scary Terry
2 Justin Jefferson
2 Bucky Irving
2 Jaylen Warren
2 Pat Freiermuth

Schnauzer6 team sans Jayden is built for a Detroit SF shootout. Goff Purdy ARSB Jamo Kittle Jennings
Schnauzer3 has little owned Mahomes. Last time he played in Pittsburgh scored 6TD. Christmas miracle = Mahomes Hollywood monster game with Warren, Freiermuth and Pickens bring back. Ol George is expected to play

 

[jm192]

I only played the Scott Fish Bowl Underdog contest this year. I assume we're playing out the "Finals," but the goal was just to get there.

The top 500 make the Week 17 Final. All 500 get a spot in Scott Fish Bowl next year.

I had 32 entries. 1 made the top 500. So spot secured.

Top 10 Most Rostered players:

Javonte Williams: 50%.
Khalil Herbert: 50%.
Marvin Mims: 40%.
Jakobi Meyers: 34%
Darius Slayton: 31%
Carr: 31%
Hubbard: 31%
Gus Edwards: 28%
D Douglas: 28%
Kelce: 28%
Adding #11 because LOL: Jahan Dotson.

Obviously, I went insaenly heavy on all of these guys. Some of them were dirt cheap. Slayton was my last pick in a lot of drafts. I thought Carr was actually a really nice value going as late as he did. I think I Was getting him at like QB25 or something.

But overall, Javonte burnt me a lot Gus Burnt me a lot. Douglas didn't do a lot for me. I thought Kelce was a really nice value--that hurt.

Next year, I'm going to listen to best ball knowers and spread my net a little wider. 40-50% is obviously way too much.

Another problem: I think I almost shut players out during best ball drafts, and then warm up to them closer to the season. I had like ZERO Bucky Irving shares, and actually had a decent bit in re-draft leagues.

 

[jm192]

My team that placed in the top 500 to win a spot in SFB15 with a Philly/Wash stack/correlation

QB:
Hurts
Geno
McCarthy

RB:
Saquon
Aaron Jones
Javonte
Ford
Chuba

WR:
AJ Brown
Tee Higgins
McLAurin
Addison
Jakobi
D Douglas
Michael Wilson

TE:
Ferugson
Goedert
Jonnu

 

[Grid71]

Tee Higgins and Mims on a Pomeranian rooster could be huge. Hopefully others here share the luck.

Checked my notebook drafting teams when the NFL schedule was released. Finals week notes said Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor and Tampa Bay RB are high value targets. Have JT and Bucky Irving on the Tee Mims squad. Hopefully my crystal ball was on point.

 

[Grid71]

Pomeranian 20k to first - holding on to 1st place with SF-DET playing tonight. Will be sweating every point. My H8fulHuck team is in the barn with 187.48 double digit lead, but not safe. Since the game is meaningless to Detroit, hoping they just play to keep their starters healthy for Minnesota next week. Why put your stars at risk for no benefit?

Biggest threats in top 10
5th (-12.1 behind me) has Goff (-36.98), Gibbs and Jamo (-11.6, -12.6)
7th place has Kittle (-0.9)

Jayden Daniels
Jonathan Taylor
Bucky Irving
Jalen Warren - Flex (thought Chase Brown, Justin Jefferson, McLauren or JSN would pass him up)
Tee Higgins
Malik Nabers
Marvin Mims
TE is a zero Goedert/Sinnott

 

[ZWK]

I'm rooting for you!

I'm not in contention in any of my finals. My superflex teams are having a better week than my regular teams, with Drew Lock finally coming through big (he's on both my finals teams, and was by far my most drafted player at 82% exposure in superflex), but I don't have any teams with the right pieces around him this week.

 

[Grid71]

I'm rooting for you!

I'm not in contention in any of my finals. My superflex teams are having a better week than my regular teams, with Drew Lock finally coming through big (he's on both my finals teams, and was by far my most drafted player at 82% exposure in superflex), but I don't have any teams with the right pieces around him this week.

was laughing when i saw drew lock lighting it up. figured there have to be a few teams with him. shame your favorite flier didn't pair up with the right combo

and thanks! i'm in shock. beginners luck
took advice drafting bring backs caught lighting in a bottle. Tee Higgins - Mims, Jonathan Taylor - Nabers

 

[Desert_Power]

 

[Grid71]

Is anyone drafting 2024 bestball playoff roosters?
Mitten are 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, 1 Flex, 5 bench with eliminations each round of the playoffs.

Never done one myself, but figure the best strategy is load up on 2 teams. Might need to throw a couple picks at lower seeded teams to survive wild card round especially with KC, Detroit and Minnesota. Won't know which NFC team has a bye till next weekend.

Personally think I'll take a few shots on Washington spoiling Detroit/Minnesota/Philly. That team is deadly with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

 

[Shaunz33]

Is anyone drafting 2024 bestball playoff roosters?
Mitten are 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, 1 Flex, 5 bench with eliminations each round of the playoffs.

Never done one myself, but figure the best strategy is load up on 2 teams. Might need to throw a couple picks at lower seeded teams to survive wild card round especially with KC, Detroit and Minnesota. Won't know which NFC team has a bye till next weekend.

Personally think I'll take a few shots on Washington spoiling Detroit/Minnesota/Philly. That team is deadly with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

@Grid71, I’ve done a bunch of mittens so far and a few gauntlets. Probably not wise but had that drafting itch Some will be dead before it starts like where for a draft i assumed that DET does not get the bye. So I have like 4 KC 4 DET and a couple other guys. Will have both those last two for wild card and want at least one to make conference. Or I have done like 5DET/3KC/2 others. For the mitten1, which already closed, this could be advantaged if seeding goes particular way. Not sure many were taking this risk.

I’ve found in past the conference finals are tough to get by without some losing team players. I usually go 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1. Or 4-4-1-1. Etc. Some people try two teams only but hard with byes and getting past the div and conf rounds.

And people debate 1 vs 2 qb. If your qb doesn’t have bye I usually do 1. Getting one of the top 5 QBs who are most likely to go to superbowl is key. Otherwise guess you root for minn or LaC or ?

Then my favorite post season contest is FFPC. Check that out too. Interesting, unique format. I’ve been doing it for 15 years or so.

Good luck.

 

[Shaunz33]

Is anyone drafting 2024 bestball playoff roosters?
Mitten are 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, 1 Flex, 5 bench with eliminations each round of the playoffs.

Never done one myself, but figure the best strategy is load up on 2 teams. Might need to throw a couple picks at lower seeded teams to survive wild card round especially with KC, Detroit and Minnesota. Won't know which NFC team has a bye till next weekend.

Personally think I'll take a few shots on Washington spoiling Detroit/Minnesota/Philly. That team is deadly with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

Also

Pomeranian 20k to first - holding on to 1st place with SF-DET playing tonight. Will be sweating every point. My H8fulHuck team is in the barn with 187.48 double digit lead, but not safe. Since the game is meaningless to Detroit, hoping they just play to keep their starters healthy for Minnesota next week. Why put your stars at risk for no benefit?

Biggest threats in top 10
5th (-12.1 behind me) has Goff (-36.98), Gibbs and Jamo (-11.6, -12.6)
7th place has Kittle (-0.9)

Jayden Daniels
Jonathan Taylor
Bucky Irving
Jalen Warren - Flex (thought Chase Brown, Justin Jefferson, McLauren or JSN would pass him up)
Tee Higgins
Malik Nabers
Marvin Mims
TE is a zero Goedert/Sinnott

good luck @Grid71 !

 

[Grid71]

Is anyone drafting 2024 bestball playoff roosters?
Mitten are 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, 1 Flex, 5 bench with eliminations each round of the playoffs.

Never done one myself, but figure the best strategy is load up on 2 teams. Might need to throw a couple picks at lower seeded teams to survive wild card round especially with KC, Detroit and Minnesota. Won't know which NFC team has a bye till next weekend.

Personally think I'll take a few shots on Washington spoiling Detroit/Minnesota/Philly. That team is deadly with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

@Grid71, I’ve done a bunch of mittens so far and a few gauntlets. Probably not wise but had that drafting itch Some will be dead before it starts like where for a draft i assumed that DET does not get the bye. So I have like 4 KC 4 DET and a couple other guys. Will have both those last two for wild card and want at least one to make conference. Or I have done like 5DET/3KC/2 others. For the mitten1, which already closed, this could be advantaged if seeding goes particular way. Not sure many were taking this risk.

I’ve found in past the conference finals are tough to get by without some losing team players. I usually go 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1. Or 4-4-1-1. Etc. Some people try two teams only but hard with byes and getting past the div and conf rounds.

And people debate 1 vs 2 qb. If your qb doesn’t have bye I usually do 1. Getting one of the top 5 QBs who are most likely to go to superbowl is key. Otherwise guess you root for minn or LaC or ?

Then my favorite post season contest is FFPC. Check that out too. Interesting, unique format. I’ve been doing it for 15 years or so.

Good luck.

Great advice. Wouldn’t have gone 1 QB but makes sense. Have to draft aggressive.

4KC 4DET is brilliant if Detroit gets there via wild card

 

[Grid71]

Is anyone drafting 2024 bestball playoff roosters?
Mitten are 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, 1 Flex, 5 bench with eliminations each round of the playoffs.

Never done one myself, but figure the best strategy is load up on 2 teams. Might need to throw a couple picks at lower seeded teams to survive wild card round especially with KC, Detroit and Minnesota. Won't know which NFC team has a bye till next weekend.

Personally think I'll take a few shots on Washington spoiling Detroit/Minnesota/Philly. That team is deadly with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

Also

Pomeranian 20k to first - holding on to 1st place with SF-DET playing tonight. Will be sweating every point. My H8fulHuck team is in the barn with 187.48 double digit lead, but not safe. Since the game is meaningless to Detroit, hoping they just play to keep their starters healthy for Minnesota next week. Why put your stars at risk for no benefit?

Biggest threats in top 10
5th (-12.1 behind me) has Goff (-36.98), Gibbs and Jamo (-11.6, -12.6)
7th place has Kittle (-0.9)

Jayden Daniels
Jonathan Taylor
Bucky Irving
Jalen Warren - Flex (thought Chase Brown, Justin Jefferson, McLauren or JSN would pass him up)
Tee Higgins
Malik Nabers
Marvin Mims
TE is a zero Goedert/Sinnott

good luck @Grid71 !

Held on to 3rd in Pomeranian. Was in first until mid 4th quarter despite all the scoring. Fun sweat and very lucky. Still shocked.

 

[Grid71]

Is anyone drafting 2024 bestball playoff roosters?
Mitten are 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, 1 Flex, 5 bench with eliminations each round of the playoffs.

Never done one myself, but figure the best strategy is load up on 2 teams. Might need to throw a couple picks at lower seeded teams to survive wild card round especially with KC, Detroit and Minnesota. Won't know which NFC team has a bye till next weekend.

Personally think I'll take a few shots on Washington spoiling Detroit/Minnesota/Philly. That team is deadly with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

@Grid71, I’ve done a bunch of mittens so far and a few gauntlets. Probably not wise but had that drafting itch Some will be dead before it starts like where for a draft i assumed that DET does not get the bye. So I have like 4 KC 4 DET and a couple other guys. Will have both those last two for wild card and want at least one to make conference. Or I have done like 5DET/3KC/2 others. For the mitten1, which already closed, this could be advantaged if seeding goes particular way. Not sure many were taking this risk.

I’ve found in past the conference finals are tough to get by without some losing team players. I usually go 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1. Or 4-4-1-1. Etc. Some people try two teams only but hard with byes and getting past the div and conf rounds.

And people debate 1 vs 2 qb. If your qb doesn’t have bye I usually do 1. Getting one of the top 5 QBs who are most likely to go to superbowl is key. Otherwise guess you root for minn or LaC or ?

Then my favorite post season contest is FFPC. Check that out too. Interesting, unique format. I’ve been doing it for 15 years or so.

Good luck.

with only 1 RB required each week, saw an entry with just King Henry and Lamar with the rest WR and TE. Thought that was risky but interesting.

 

[Shaunz33]

Is anyone drafting 2024 bestball playoff roosters?
Mitten are 1QB, 1RB, 2WR/TE, 1 Flex, 5 bench with eliminations each round of the playoffs.

Never done one myself, but figure the best strategy is load up on 2 teams. Might need to throw a couple picks at lower seeded teams to survive wild card round especially with KC, Detroit and Minnesota. Won't know which NFC team has a bye till next weekend.

Personally think I'll take a few shots on Washington spoiling Detroit/Minnesota/Philly. That team is deadly with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

@Grid71, I’ve done a bunch of mittens so far and a few gauntlets. Probably not wise but had that drafting itch Some will be dead before it starts like where for a draft i assumed that DET does not get the bye. So I have like 4 KC 4 DET and a couple other guys. Will have both those last two for wild card and want at least one to make conference. Or I have done like 5DET/3KC/2 others. For the mitten1, which already closed, this could be advantaged if seeding goes particular way. Not sure many were taking this risk.

I’ve found in past the conference finals are tough to get by without some losing team players. I usually go 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1. Or 4-4-1-1. Etc. Some people try two teams only but hard with byes and getting past the div and conf rounds.

And people debate 1 vs 2 qb. If your qb doesn’t have bye I usually do 1. Getting one of the top 5 QBs who are most likely to go to superbowl is key. Otherwise guess you root for minn or LaC or ?

Then my favorite post season contest is FFPC. Check that out too. Interesting, unique format. I’ve been doing it for 15 years or so.

Good luck.

with only 1 RB required each week, saw an entry with just King Henry and Lamar with the rest WR and TE. Thought that was risky but interesting.

Yeah I guess it’s possible but hard to see how that 8th WR/TE has better potential use than a 2nd RB. Spags had team like that on a recent stream.

I was able to get this team in mitten2 so hoping for Viking win sunday, and Lions dominate in playoffs. Or I burned $5.

DET: Goff, Gibbs, Amon-Ra, Jmo, Laporta, Montgomery
KC: Hollywood, Gray
LAC: Dobbins, QJ (wish I got better WC WR but not much left in 10th)

Also I’ve made a couple LAC teams including an interesting gauntlet (Justin, JK, Ladd, QJ vs Gibbs/Amon with good divisional / conference pieces: Shakir/Kincaid, Hock, Worthy (prob shouldn’t have taken)

I think bengals win Saturday (even if they don’t make playoffs) and then LAC plays Houston in WC and can give Chiefs a game ( hopefully high scoring and not like the 2 they played this year).
Anyway, It’s possible, it’s fairly unique .

 

[ZWK]

I ended up coming out slightly ahead on Underdog this year, despite the lack of big wins. In the range of "technically profitable, but below minimum wage for the hours that I put into it."

Superflex was my best format, by far. Did 17 SF drafts for $106, had 2 make the finals, got $715 in payouts for a +$609 profit and 6.7x ROI. Probably most of that was noise, but I do think I have a bigger edge in superflex than in regular tournaments so I'm going to try to do more superflex drafts this offseason.

 

[Grid71]

I ended up coming out slightly ahead on Underdog this year, despite the lack of big wins. In the range of "technically profitable, but below minimum wage for the hours that I put into it."

Superflex was my best format, by far. Did 17 SF drafts for $106, had 2 make the finals, got $715 in payouts for a +$609 profit and 6.7x ROI. Probably most of that was noise, but I do think I have a bigger edge in superflex than in regular tournaments so I'm going to try to do more superflex drafts this offseason.

Congratulations on a winning year even if it’s not as profitable as you hoped. Very cool you come out so far ahead in Super Flex.

In case you didn’t notice, The first time SF contests come out on Underdog, the ADP uses the same as regular BB drafts. QB move up the charts quickly giving sharp drafters an edge.

I’m sure Underdog will start doing SF prior to the NFL draft. Will post here when I see the contest go live.