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I'm reading this, and I don't think I'm being clear (even to myself!).
What I hear you saying is that just any guy--a ham sandwich runningback, who never stands out in any one season (like in the hypothetical)--can be a Hall of Famer if he hangs on long enough to compile the requisite stats.
If they did, you are helping me make my point, as that would make Davis' numbers even more impressive in the three Elway-less '98 games.
That is true, but Roethlisberger wasn't your average NFL rookie QB and I think everyone will agree with that.
True, but I am not sure Pittsburgh could have mentally recovered from Indy taking the lead like that, plus the fact that the Steelers didn't throw the ball that much in the second half, so their passing game wasn't exactly hitting on all cylinders at that point. Still, it is a moot point because it didn't happen, but my point was that I wouldn't give Bettis too much credit for Sunday's win since his fumble almost cost them the game. The defense and Roethlisberger deserve the most credit for the win over the Colts.
Can you give us a practical example of a Murrell/Duckett type of player who did make it 20 years? Unless you can, I don't think you can really bring these guys up as an argument against what we're saying.I'm reading this, and I don't think I'm being clear (even to myself!).
I don't agree with that.
I don't think I'm helping you make your point at all. If that's the argument about Brister (and I think it is), you can't really differentiate those games from the three poor Griese games.
I don't think anyone is really giving Bettis a lot of credit for the win. At least not that I've seen. He had 15 carries for 38 yards and a TD in the 2nd half, and he ran effectively enough against a defense that knew the Steelers wanted to run the ball to kill a lot of clock in the 2nd half. Roethlisberger and the defense were clearly the stars of that game, and Bettis' biggest moment was carrying it 5 straight times from the 12 yard line for the TD that put them up 21-3.I agree that it wouldn't have been easy for the Steelers to score again, and they'd have had plenty of reasons to be mentally shot after losing a game like that after Polamalu's non-INT and Bettis' fumble.
If you consider a guy who's top 5 in rushing yardage (as in the hypothetical) a "ham sandwich", then you must have REALLY high standards.I'm reading this, and I don't think I'm being clear (even to myself!).
I don't agree with that.
You're missing the point of the word *hypothetical*. . .But since I brought him up, let's use Adrian Murrell as a concrete example.Can you give us a practical example of a Murrell/Duckett type of player who did make it 20 years? Unless you can, I don't think you can really bring these guys up as an argument against what we're saying.I'm reading this, and I don't think I'm being clear (even to myself!).
I don't agree with that.
I did get your point, but no running back CAN last that long compiling Murrel-like numbers. You don't last as long as Bettis without being in great physical shape and being a damn good football player. That's why he gets in. He's not a "ham sandwich" RB who just has longevity.You're missing the point of the word *hypothetical*. . .But since I brought him up, let's use Adrian Murrell as a concrete example.Can you give us a practical example of a Murrell/Duckett type of player who did make it 20 years? Unless you can, I don't think you can really bring these guys up as an argument against what we're saying.I'm reading this, and I don't think I'm being clear (even to myself!).
I don't agree with that.
122 career games played, 5199 yards rushing. That's an average of 42.6 yards/game. YOUR argument is that if a guy like Murrell could just hang on long enough to compile the career stats (even though he was *never* a top-5 back in any of his seasons), you would put him in the Hall of Fame.
Of course Adrian Murrell didn't last that long, but you're saying that *if he did*, he should be in the Hall. I just wouldn't vote for a guy based on longevity.
The larger point (that has been made earlier) is that while Bettis has been very good, he was a top-5 rusher only 3 times in a 13-year career. He was never an MVP. Double-digit rushing TDs *twice*?? Twice, in a 13-year career for "one of the best big backs ever"?? He was never outstanding--usually very good, but never OUTSTANDING. And the past 4 years have really hurt his legacy, IMO. He has been hanging on, compiling (mostly TD) stats, at a whopping 3.5 yards/carry pace. For FOUR years. He's compiling, friends, and that is when I start to discount the career statistics and start looking at the body of work on a year-by-year basis. Which, while very good, is not Hall of Fame worthy.
With that said, I think he'll probably get in. But he won't be in my personal Hall of Fame. And I know that that will eat at him when he tries to sleep at night.
Okay, when I think of great physical shape, I now think of JEROME BETTIS.
You're right--he is (was) a good football player for the first 9 years. But how does that square with his past 4? He is a role player, compiling stats. And his case for the Hall certainly doesn't look as strong without these past four years (and those 30-some TDs).
Actually, I was recognizing that the word "hypothetical" was giving you considerable trouble because you were bringing up the work of players who have had average to above average length careers and projecting them out over 20 years. It was time to serve a slice of the pie we know as reality to make a point.
Okay, let's take a slice of your argument and apply it to Bettis. What counts as substantial? Like having 5 years of a 13-year career where a RB doesn't crack 1000 yards? Being a mere role player for around a third of your career? Can't we fairly ascribe those characteristics to Bettis?
No, not even close.Through the year 2001, Jerome Bettis had a brilliant stretch for a RB like him. He spent his best years on a Steelers team that ran the football at everyone even know everyone knew they were going to, and he still had success. He played on teams without a passing threat every year, and his TD numbers suffered because of it. He WAS the Steelers offense.
Doesn't the part in bold contradict a key part of your argument? I would imagine that his first year of eligibility might be his best chance, particularly if the guys who retired ahead of him who are ahead of him all get in before that happens and the guys ahead of him otherwise don't retire for another year or two. If it is such a slim chance, it seems to me that the perfect storm of few great candidates his first year might be the best way he would have of getting in.
I think there is little question of that. However, should he be? Address that and why.
And he missed and fumbled on an important 4th and 1 against the Patriots in last years AFC Championship game. Is that really going to be your deciding factor for the HOF? That his big blubbery ### was good at converting 4th and inches?
Watters is a HOF'er too. 9 straight years as a top 10 back and a ring (3 TD's in the SB) seals it.it's interesting that MANY people here feel that bettis is a lock but look how he compares to someone like ricky waters, someone that most people don't give much consideration as a hall of famer:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1151
10,643 rushing yards
4,248 receiving yards
91 TD's
1 super bowl ring
so the question is: how does bettis get in the hall if ricky doesn't?
Wow, really getting technical with the .3 difference from being top 5. The point I was making was still valid. He had a top SIX three run stretch and won two superbowls during that time. This guy walks in way before Priest IMO. Thank you for pointing out my error Mr. Yudkin. Without looking it up I was pretty close but your right. :X
Watters is a much better candidate IMO.it's interesting that MANY people here feel that bettis is a lock but look how he compares to someone like ricky waters, someone that most people don't give much consideration as a hall of famer:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1151
10,643 rushing yards
4,248 receiving yards
91 TD's
1 super bowl ring
so the question is: how does bettis get in the hall if ricky doesn't?
I could care less about the 0.3 point or whether he was #5 or #6. What I do care about is whether a player that falls in this grouping should be a HOFer or not, as there are some guys in this group that some are saying should be HOFers based on the years they had here, while saying that others should not be inducted even though they are on the list.And other than myself, I have not seen anyone that thinks Ahman Green merits even a footnote as a future HOFer, and while I agree that for now he wouldn't stand a shot. But after a few more years he very well could be a viable candidate. He's averaged over 1,800 yards from scrimmage as a starter, is only 28, and with 3 more similar seasons he'd be in the all-time Top 10 for total yards. I know that's a lot of ifs giving that he's coming off an injury and does not have a team for next year, but he's one to keep an eye on.
For those that say this WITHOUT QUESTION, I ask what in specifity makes him a clear cut HOFer? I don't disagree that he'll get in, but if the argument is his CAREER TOTALS, then be prepared to say that players like Dillon, Barber, and even Warrick Dunn are HOFers if they play long enough and get similar total career numbers. Does anyone look at those guys and think that they are WITHOUT A DOUBT HOFers? Like I said, a few more seasons and they will pass up Bettis, so a vote for Bettis should be considered a vote for those other guys (provided they compile some additional totals to get to Bettis).Through their first 9 seasons:
Corey Dillon and Tiki Barber ALREADY have better stats than Bettis. Dillon's 4.3 YPC and Barbers 4.6 YPC for a career hold more weight with me than Bettis' 3.9 YPC over more carries.Corey Dillon is NOT a HOF. Barber is not a lock but has a shot. They are both better than Bettis.
You guys both members of the assinine comments club? WHY should he be a HOFer? What makes him GREAT rather than just being very good?
In football, longevity counts (IMO) more than any other sport. Bettis has compiled fantastic numbers and has helped his team win. He protects the ball, he's a team leader, and the people with Votes seem to love him b/c he's a nice guy.The 5th leading rusher of all time is not being kept out of the hall b/c he's got a 3.9ypc average.
Comments:1. It is extremely unlikely that these guys will end up with career totals like Bettis. All are 30 or older.
I don't consider Dunn a real HOF candidate either, which was my point. Dunn currently has 174 total yards and 3 total TD less than Bettis did at the same points in their careers. I doubt Dunn plays many more productive years, but it's not totally out of the question that he could.From Year 10 on, Bettis put up another 3,015 yards and 38 TD. Dunn is 30, and I don't think it is all that far fetched that he could have 1 more solid season (say 1300-1400 total yards) and two other seasons with a reduced role to make up the difference. So it's not inconceivable that Dunn catches Bettis in total yards. Given that Dunn has never had 10 TD in a season, there's pretty much no way he scores more TD than Bettis has. But career total yardage is not out of the question. Unless people feel that a yard rushing is greater than a yard receiving.
You can quote all the what-ifs you want. I stand by my statement that is is extremely unlikely any of these guys end up with numbers like Bettis. And, yes, that is all numbers, meaning both yardage and TDs.I like Dunn, but he isn't a HOF caliber player. That doesn't bear on whether or not Bettis is a HOF caliber player IMO. I think it is valid to compare a player to his contemporaries, but I really don't like the specific arguments along the lines of "player X is in, and player Y has equivalent or better stats, so player Y should be in." If you can't see that Bettis has been a stronger RB than Dunn, even only through the first 9 years, we will have to agree to disagree.
And the exception disproves the rule, right?
You put words in my mouth. I didn't say it is all about Pro Bowls. I simply used that as one relative measure that shows Bettis has been better than the others you listed.
Okay, by that rationale I could say that Vinny Testaverde (who is in the top 10 in passing yards, touchdowns and completions) is not going to be kept out of the hall because he has thrown 261 interceptions.How is this for a comparison:
My thoughts exactly.
That seems accurate. Bettis' style has defined the Steelers for years. He's an icon of the NFL. Some of the things that get you into the hall of fame trancend stats.I expect him to make the hall.
Not really true, David.In 2002, the Steelers tried to get Amos Zereoue more involved, but the offensive line suffered and the defense was terrible. He split carries pretty evenly with Zereoue that year because the Steelers NEEDED to have someone like him behind that putrid line. Considering that Jerome had about 100 yards rushing per game the previous season through week 11, I'd say he still had plenty left in the tank.
I've never heard NFL players talk about how difficult it is to deal with Dillon. He's been a great back, just like a lot of other players are great RB's. But I've seen interviews that Bettis is different. He's a massive back that can run you over or dance around you. If you try to tackle him high you are going for a ride on the bus. If you try to tackle him low he's running over or around you. These are quotes from players to the best of my recollection.I dont remember hearing these things about Dillon, or Terrell Davis, or Eddie George, or anyone else since Sanders or Smith. Only Bettis. My understanding is that this guy is at a different level than most other great backs of the last 5 years, in the eyes of other players. That stands for something.
Why are you basing your analysis of Bettis' HOF candidacy on fantasy points. There's much, MUCH more he brings to the table than fantasy players look at.I don't think you're alone in not giving Bettis enough credit for what he's done the last few years. 2002 and 2003 were struggles because of the OL, and he was already 32 by the time 2004 came around. I don't believe his skills deteriorated so much that he could go from having almost 1100 yards in 11 games during 2001 to being a below average role player in 2002. He was fantastic for the 2nd half last year, and NOW has settled into a role of a part-time guy. He still adds a lot to the Steelers though.
What are you talking about? 
Bettis is the only back you have ever seen get praised? Players never spoke in reverential tones about Terrell Davis? Really, not even when he gained 2,000 yards?
I'm a Pats fan too. That doesnt mean I look at Dillon through beer goggles now that he's a Patriot. Or judge Bettis explicitly against how he performed against the Pats. I think you are kidding yourself about how players make it into the hall. They are elected by sportscasters based partially on real numbers and partially on how well they are regarded. Bettis is very highly regarded and he has some HOF numbers. You can quantify WHY he has hall of fame numbers, due to longevity or whatever. But he still has them. You can't throw away someone accumulating more yardage than all by 4 other runningbacks in history. And he's a popular guy to boot.
I for one have NEVER heard players talk about how difficult it is to deal with Bettis. Then again, my team is the Patriots and Bettis has NEVER had a decent game against them. In fact, Bettis is EASY to deal with if you have a coach that knows what he is doing.
Bettis is very borderline and only Steeler love will get him in ahead of Corey Dillon. Dillon has had the more productive career.
Its tough to vote a player in with only 5 years (Sayers is the exception, Davis will probably miss out on the Hall). However, once you get past 7 years or so it is about the impact you had on the game and how you stack up against the All Time greats. Its not about the stats that you COMPILE.
Take Bettis at his best, compare that to a true Hall of Famer like Jim Brown, or Earl Campbell or Tony Dorsett. They were true Greats. Bettis has been GOOD for a long time and that is it.
