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I'm actually basing this on the coaching staff suspensions as I have a ton of faith in Sean Payton's offensive genius, and I think the "new guy" will be far more conservative. Last year they had 1,117 offensive plays and only 431 were rushing (less than 40%). But in that they rushed it less than 40% of the time, New Orleans was 4th in the league last year in yards per rushing attempt, and the new "coach" will rely on that I believe.Brees led the league in each of the following -completions, completion %, yards, TDs, and passes for 1st downs.And was 2nd in attempts, 20+ yard completions, and sack %.I can't see all of those repeating with all of the bad news coming out of NO.Also, Brees' best games last year were against the Packers, Giants, Vikings, and Panthers (last year #32, #29, #26, and #24 vs the pass in terms of yards given up - and #32, #27, #25 and #24 vs the pass in terms of TDs given up). This year his schedule is at least a bit harder with the AFC West, NFC East, and the 49ers. He only had 3 games last year against teams in the top 13 of pass defenses vs. the pass - the Jags, Rams and Texans - where he had 2 of his 3 worst games throwing only a single TD in both (he is mortal).Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he'll have a horrible year, but 4,500 yards for 34 TDs and 17 INTs (my projections) shouldn't make him the 1st round pick where he's being taken. The NFL is going to a more pass oriented scheme, so I think other QBs will put up numbers close to those, and you can get them much, much later.
He wasn't on the cover last year. But when he was he suffered a MCL tear that was kept secret all season and threw the most interceptions of his career.ETA: and failed to defend his team's title by losing in the first round to a team that had the worst regular season ever to make the playoffs.
I think you have to give a guy a pass on this one. AJ was the #1 WR in 2008 and 2009 and top 6 in 2010. He was hurt last year. He justifies being one of the top 3 WRs off the board, period. Every player would be subject to "bust" if you include (or assume injury). So, if you remove that (if an injury does not occur), AJ will not bust. No way. No how.Relative to the spots they will be drafted, I see DeMarco Murray as a huge bust risk and I think you can make a case that Calvin Johnson will be a bust....RELATIVE TO DRAFT SPOT. Impossible you say? Don't we see it every year at WR? Randy Moss. Roddy White. Reggie Wayne. If you look at Calvin's numbers, he has a tendency to be up and down. When he is up, his is beastly, like in 2008 (#3) and 2011 (#1). When he is down, he is still very good, (2009, #23), but not worth what the masses always expect from him and not what you pay.
Um, Hillis was on the cover last year, not Brees....what happened to Hillis?
I didnt look at his ADP and apologize for posting him if that data is correct. If he is going off the board @ rb 17 in non ppr than he is descent value (eventhough I wouldnt want him). I thought he would be higher than that. I apologize...........
He's been in the league for two years, as a late 1st round pick. He's had some injuries, and some issues maturing. These are his numbers for the first two years of his career:2010: 45/561/62011: 63/928/9In two seasons, he's put up 108/1489/15, and none of that is including his ST's contributions.A guy like Micheal Crabtree has never lived up to expectations. Dez Bryant had SKY-high expectations, and still has had a very respectable career to date. I mean, Over 60 catches, almost 1,000 yards, and almost 10 TD's his second year and he's a disappointment?He has the talent to live up to people's sky-high expectations, even if they were wrong to have them right out of the gate.
ayton Manning (One solid hit away from being having a setback with his neck)
The other point on Newton, is that last year he did all without the OTAs, preseason, etc. I agree I see his rushing TDs going down, but I see his passing TDs going up a good amount, since he has had time to work with the WR. Also, Nanee leaving is a blessing too. Should almost be a lock as a top 5 QB.
there is no pressure on dallas. no one thinks they can win the division. there was pressure back a few years ago when they were suppose to be the best team in the nfc but not now.
I think this is where it gets difficult for me. Last year, 4200 yds and 29 TD's would have only been good for QB9 or 10.1. Brees - 5,476 / 47'fightingillini said:
Pressure from the inside. This Garrett/Romo thing isn't going to go on forever if they never become winners.
He can be had for pennies. Thus not a bust candidate
No, I do think that's where he finishes. He was Top 10 last year. Didn't realize he'd slid that far.
If Tebow takes over I exact Keller to benefit. The implosion may actually benefit him.Martellus Bennett is beng drafted at TE-21<Him.
People don't like to hear logical arguments when it comes to Cam Newton. Just a warning.
What would make you think that? It can't be based off Tebow throwing to TE's last year.... explain.
His TDs are not the usual QB TDs, he is basically the goal line back. He had 8 rushing TDs from inside the 5 yard line. I think he will still have double digit rushing TDs.
yep touches/ carries will be split even with Rogers
You can't just add his rushing and passing production to compare to QBs who don't run often...rushing production is worth more in most leagues. In a normal 4 pts per pass TD league, 500/7 on the ground is worth 92 points, while 500/7 through the air is worth 48 points. It would take 1000/13 (roughly double his rushing production) in passing to equal those 92 points. So, using the 3700/22 above, another QB would need 4700/35 in passing to match it. Based on last years numbers, that puts Cam at QB5. Rushing production is the reason that Cam was QB4 on that list over Stafford, despite fewer total yards and TDs.
Silliest prediction I have heard yet this preseason.
No one knows what will happen in NY. Most assume Sanchez will screw up and Tebow will take over but he could respond well to the challenge too.As for Keller if Tebow does start he didn't have a TE like him in Denver either, someone who could take a 7 yard pass 15 yards or more. It s a guess based on talent. I think they'll use him to earn yards after the catch because Tim is a better short passer and Keller will move the chains.It's a guess but if you have good players you use them. Time will tell but I still like Keller to be top 10 or 12.
Haha I love that.
Your league score rushing yards the same as passing? Big whiff on your analysis here.
The differences in scoring systems is a fair point and appreciate pointing it out. Assuming just one scenario where Cam increases his pass stats and gears down the run, he would need 4,200 / 28 passing and 600 / 10 to match his FF point production (442 pts) from last year in the more standard scoring systems. That's a big year but certainly doable. With a reasonable floor at 3,700 / 22 and 500 / 7, that would seem a good bet at ADP QB4-5 range.My league is pretty QB-intensive with pass TD = 6pts and also penalizes for INTs and sacks. In those types of leagues (which I'm seeing is the minority), it's a little different story. His relatively high sacks (35) and INT's (17) combined with his lower second half 2011 pass stats make his ADP seem higher and more of a bust-risk vs. more efficient passers you can find in the ADP QB5-10 range.'Dippa said:
Agree with this. Ingram has more potential to be a steal than a bust this year based on his ADP
How so?
Agree, Cam is something special. Remember last year he did all that as a rookie with no OTA or most preseason. That is incredible! Some are predicting 30+/20 in TDs. Speed, Size, intelligence, strong arm, good work effort, loved by teammates, a leader and a love of the game. I can't imagine how good he is going to be with practice with his teammates. I hope many others pass on him in my leagues.
Rodgers has been on the season ending injured reserve twice in his career already.
Huh? What language is that???
Algonquin.
I think Murray is certainly talented and could be very good but the projections based off a small sample leaves little room for additional value considering the price to draft/acquire him. To put it in context, he is being drafted in 2012 around the same spot as Hillis and Mendenhall in 2011. They ironically underperformed last year but that is not the point. Hillis and Mendenhall were coming off great 2010 seasons where they were top producers, not just demonstrating potential.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11pprmock_1.php I think Murray would be better equated to where Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best were drafted last year.
