This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
The better question is how is the Jets situation this year much different than the Jets situation last year? Fitzpatrick was horrendous, Petty played a few games, Decker missed most of the season and Marshall was hurt early in the season and was never the same. Forte did well early in the season and Powell looked very good at the end of the year.
And Jets dont have a good defense to keep games low scoring like the Rams and will be in catch up mode quite a bit which means a lot of passing and dumpoffs down the stretch of games.
Before I get accused of Powell bashing, I have owned him pretty much every year in multiple leagues in multiple scoring systems. That being said, the Jets scored 125 points over the final 8 games on the season last year. As others have suggested, what changed for the Jets from last year to this year? Let's run with that and project the 2017 Jets to score 250 points on the season.
I don't really truly believe the Steve Smith stuff, but Powell's contract for 2017 is fully guaranteed so releasing him does them no good.Anarchy99 said:
That's what happens when you have a small sample size that includes his biggest outlier game of his career in terms of receptions (11). He averaged 3 receptions a game in 15 other games. Maybe Powell somehow gets to 70 receptions and his production the last month of the season carries over into 2017 (138 yfs/g over the last 4 games). However, that pretty much was achieved with Forte out.shadyridr said:
Sorry I didnt realize you can use an 8 game sample to draw conclusions but I couldnt
You can draft whomever you want and project players how ever you want. But Powell excelled when Forte's contribution and workload was ZERO. So sure, Powell could see the huge majority of snaps and Forte could be on the sideline watching. But IMO some consideration needs to be made for projected numbers from Forte and a shared workload.
fair enough....just not sure Blount scores 17 TD's last year on the Jets or Browns
Forte played in 14 of 16 games so I think the bolded statement is fairly inaccurate. I think it's more likely that Powell outplayed Forte down the stretch, leading to less time for Forte. Both are back in 2017, with only a 6th rd RB added in the draft. So I feel pretty safe in projecting an increase in Powell's numbers.
From what I remember, Forte got dinged late in the season (torn meniscus) and tried to play through it. His last 4 games were:
I agree. That's not what I was projecting. I estimated Powell would produce around 2/3rds of the total 2016 RB production which represents about a 25% bump for rushing and about the same for receiving. Based on how 2016 ended and the lack of competition drafted for 2017 I don't think that is too far fetched. That would place him firmly as a RB2, which was the original point after all.
Blount scored 18 TDs for the Pats, and the question was raised how many he would have scored on the Jets or Browns. Seeing that the Jets RBs scored 15 and Forte had 8, I don't think 10-12 would have been a stretch for Blount.
Not singling you out, but it's funny how everybody loves career years but forgets the rest of someone's career. Prior to 2016, Blount had 31 rushing TD's in 84 career games played. Or a rate of 5.9 TD per projected 16 game season before his TD explosion in 2016. I guess we will see which Blount hits the field in 2017 . . . the one that averaged 6 TD's a season or the one that produced triple that last year.
Good point. I guess my thought was that if Forte could score 8 its conceivable Blount would have had 10-12.
To give you some dynasty perspective (albeit just one league) I finished a 12 team 24 roster PPR startup last week.
If he's a journeyman that would make him.... three times better than any other receiver on that roster? I kind of hate PPR and Powell is going to be the poster boy demonstrating why PPR scoring is an abomination.
How is he a journeyman if he's only been on the Jets since he was drafted by them. The guys has improved each season he's been in the league and has worked hard to earn more time playing time.
Tough to call him a journeyman when he's only played for one team.
It's doubtful that any team would trade for Forte. More than likely he could be cut and a week later will resign with the Jets with a new lower contract. Assume he does get traded, yes Powell should get an uptick but no one should assume that they don't have a plan already in place for someone else to fill Forte's role and touches.
In ppr leagues he just may. I can see him catching 70 balls in this offense. As far as having bad QBs, while that's certainly true it also means the offense will revolved around the running game and Powell is a very under-rated runner. I actually think he'll outperform his ADP - but I'm only in one redraft league (he went at 3.11 - not to me- which I think is good value per my projections). In a standard league maybe that would be a reach but in ppr I think his floor is 55 receptions and about 1,100 total yards if healthy.
The plan, even with Forte in the mix, has been to make Powell the RB1a - and if they release Forte only rookie Elijah McGuire is behind him to take carries and he is not anything special from what I've seen.
While that may be true, you also have to watch the Jets if you draft him. Which I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy.
Oops. Very very tired last night.
That's if they have enough sustained drives to support that.
This is a team that is going to be playing from behind often and with no real threats at WR will be dumping the ball off to Powell often during "catch up mode". The Jets offense is definitely going to be among the lowest scoring in the NFL - heck it will be the lowest scoring most likely - but even the worst offenses move the ball and rack up yards. No team goes three and out on every drive.
McCoy is going #6 while Powell is at #60. Both in terrible offenses. Give my Powell all day long.
While this is true, he has a history of getting nicked up. He's gold when he plays, but I can't see him lasting long without injury with higher usage. I'd make sure you have a back-up plan.
While you are most likely spot on the one element I think you're missing is the garbage time points. I see a ton of games the Jets are down 21 in the 4th and it's dump off pass mania all of which will go to Bial. That's fantasy gold. Due to that I don't think it's a stretch at all to see RB2 value in PPR's.
