I understand your point, but I still think the data has to many unknown variable to be a useful measuring stick in determining where or not a team has a greater chance than not of making it on a 4th down play. The other point is that a coaches own 'political' situation has a ton of bearing on the choice and that choice is dependent upon the individual players on the team.Let's do an example:Raider 4th and 1 at the 35. IMHO Russell (all of 6'6 325- I kid but only a little) could lean over the line and get this most of the time. But do I think that Cable would do this, especially with AL? No way.
Agreed. But that's a special case. Presumably, you could show the chart I linked to management/ownership of 29 other NFL teams and they would at least give you a long enough leash to make the "easy" calls. But still, coaches don't do it, either because they don't bother to look at those stats, don't embrace them fully, or don't have the kahunas to do what they should. Belichick does embrace the numbers, and I was simply pointing to this as one piece of evidence that he may be bringing a Moneyball approach to the game, something a previous poster had posited. it may or may not be true, but at least in this case he seems to understand a gap between perception and reality, just like Beane understood the gap between perception and reality for OBP a decade ago.Also, I'd like to think that even Al Davis could understand going for it on 4th and 1 from the 35, no???