I had Blackmon ranked as my dynasty WR9 until this. Today I got this email from a friend: "I know you were high on Blackmon before this. Do you view this as a reason to cool on him, given that he is theoretically subject to a bigger suspension if caught again and given this as evidence of poor judgment? Or do you view this as a buy low opportunity?" I have to see him as a huge risk now, not a buy low.
The 2010 arrest could be thought of as no big deal, a college kid enjoying college. The 2012 arrest with a crazy 0.24 blood alcohol in retrospect should have been more alarming to me but because of his immense talent I looked the other way more than I should have. A blood alcohol level that high by itself should have had alarm bells going off in my head, for that's a level a casual drinker probably can't even reach before passing out first. It should have said to me that this was a hard core drinker. Now he's been fined 4 games for substance abuse, not PEDs, which has to make one assume he has a continuing drinking problem, one so bad that he's unable to stop even if it means losing millions in contract guarantees. By being suspended it means he has tested positive multiple times since entering the NFL -- not counting the 0.24 last year before he signed a contract, as I understand it. So, 2010, 2012, and getting caught by tests multiple times in 2012/13 under the NFL testing program... and that's only the times he's been caught. Imagine all the other times he's been under the influence.
It is pretty clear to me he has a lifestyle problem he can't control, and all the apologies and good intentions in the world don't add up to 10 cents worth of ability to beat this problem. He looks like a huge risk to again fail a test and be done for a year, and then who knows. If he can't beat this he essentially kills his career at some point. I haven't decided where to now rank him. First, there's the 4 games lost in 2013 which matter. Then there's the big risk he's got a lifelong problem, and you can bet the Jags are taking into account his unreliability when forecasting his future with the team, as will other teams if/when he's no longer with Jacksonville. He falls from dynasty WR9 in my rankings no doubt, but to where is the question. I'll be posting new rankings in the next day or two and by then I'll have digested this better and hopefully will have a better feel for that. Bruce