I agree. ARod is no slouch, but Bonds may be the best overall player since......Wille Mays maybe?ARod wasn't the best player on the team when he was in Seattle (Junior was).
He is still a no brainer first ballot HoF, but Bonds was just speaking the truth.
I think what a lot of people fail to understand is that Bonds' career before the 21st century is a fantastic one, that almost certainly would have placed him in the HOF, but...What makes him arguably the best offensive power of all time was his production between 2001-2004, the likes of which had never been seen before in the game, nonetheless by a guy his age.
So when we're talking about Bonds vs. A-Rod, the interesting thing to note is that A-Rod is just now about 5 years younger than Bonds was when he hit his "stride." A-Rod's stats through age 31 are almost all better than those of Bonds', but he still probably won't finish with some of the gaudy career numbers Bonds has because of the "second peak" of Bonds' career (which was much better than his or anyone for that matter's first peak) that A-Rod will likely never have.
Between 2000 and 2004, Bonds hit 142 MORE home runs than statistical projections would have had him hit. While there do exist statistical anomalies, it's hard to imagine that all 142 of those dingers came naturally.
Essentially, accepting Bonds achievements as being untainted by steroids means accepting that a 36 year old was able to do things that 25-30 year olds have never been able to do, even though his skills had declined not far out of the range of prediction between the ages of 30 and 35. As I'll show later, Bonds' numbers
in each season between 2001-2004 when he was 36-39 years old were better than those of anyone not named Ted Williams in any year of their career at any age, even during their prime.
The statistic "equivalent average" is made to encapsulate all offensive attributes into one metric that sits on approximately the same scale as batting average, so we're comfortable with it. A .260 is about average, .300 very good, .200 they'll call you Mendoza, .400 they'll put you in Cooperstown.
Here is how Bonds fared in that regard:
Age Year Team EQA21 1986 PIT-N 0.28022 1987 PIT-N 0.28323 1988 PIT-N 0.31624 1989 PIT-N 0.30225 1990 PIT-N 0.34426 1991 PIT-N 0.34127 1992 PIT-N 0.37728 1993 SF_-N 0.37429 1994 SF_-N 0.34730 1995 SF_-N 0.34131 1996 SF_-N 0.36232 1997 SF_-N 0.35033 1998 SF_-N 0.34734 1999 SF_-N 0.32835 2000 SF_-N 0.36036 2001 SF_-N 0.42737 2002 SF_-N 0.45338 2003 SF_-N 0.41239 2004 SF_-N 0.45640 2005 SF_-N 0.34341 2006 SF_-N 0.34242 2007 SF_-N 0.377Here are similar numbers for Ruth:
Code:
Age Year Team EQA19 1914 BOS-A 0.180 20 1915 BOS-A 0.335 21 1916 BOS-A 0.280 22 1917 BOS-A 0.319 23 1918 BOS-A 0.343 24 1919 BOS-A 0.378 25 1920 NY_-A 0.411 26 1921 NY_-A 0.391 27 1922 NY_-A 0.343 28 1923 NY_-A 0.401 29 1924 NY_-A 0.383 30 1925 NY_-A 0.298 31 1926 NY_-A 0.395 32 1927 NY_-A 0.382 33 1928 NY_-A 0.371 34 1929 NY_-A 0.352 35 1930 NY_-A 0.372 36 1931 NY_-A 0.384 37 1932 NY_-A 0.377 38 1933 NY_-A 0.344 39 1934 NY_-A 0.334 40 1935 BOS-N 0.298
Ted Williams:
Code:
Age Year Team EQA20 1939 BOS-A 0.33221 1940 BOS-A 0.34322 1941 BOS-A 0.42023 1942 BOS-A 0.38827 1946 BOS-A 0.39228 1947 BOS-A 0.38329 1948 BOS-A 0.36830 1949 BOS-A 0.36331 1950 BOS-A 0.33932 1951 BOS-A 0.33833 1952 BOS-A 0.41734 1953 BOS-A 0.40535 1954 BOS-A 0.37336 1955 BOS-A 0.36937 1956 BOS-A 0.34538 1957 BOS-A 0.39839 1958 BOS-A 0.35040 1959 BOS-A 0.28141 1960 BOS-A 0.356
and finally, Hank Aaron
Code:
Age Year Team EQA20 1954 MIL-N 0.27121 1955 MIL-N 0.31722 1956 MIL-N 0.32523 1957 MIL-N 0.34224 1958 MIL-N 0.33125 1959 MIL-N 0.36126 1960 MIL-N 0.32927 1961 MIL-N 0.33328 1962 MIL-N 0.33729 1963 MIL-N 0.35130 1964 MIL-N 0.33531 1965 MIL-N 0.33332 1966 ATL-N 0.32033 1967 ATL-N 0.33534 1968 ATL-N 0.32535 1969 ATL-N 0.33436 1970 ATL-N 0.31937 1971 ATL-N 0.35138 1972 ATL-N 0.317
From these we can see a few things.
Aaron was not as good an overall hitter as Bonds, Ruth, nor Williams
It is possible to have years in the latter part of your career where you do much better than the year before
Bonds is the only player here that had sustained abnormal success in the latter part of his career, even though his early years in San Francisco had him following a much more normal career trajectory for a 30 year old player.And I think it's that last bullet that matters most. I think steroids go a long way into explaining that sustained success after age 35, and I think that if we take those gaudy 4-5 years away from him and replace it with those of any of the other greats I listed, Barry Bonds is a HOFer, but nowhere near the greatest hitter of all time, as the now tainted stats half-make the case for.