Brady Overrated this year? (1 Viewer)

[bbuster]

I ended up with Brady as my QB2 last year in my auction league. I wasn't really thrilled with it initially since I didn't really consider him a strong fantasy QB, but he I was pleasantly surprised when I was forced to start him when Bulger went down. This year Brady is ranked much higher than he has in past seasons. I figured he would be ranked higher this year than he has in the past, but I was pretty surprised to see him ranked as the #2 QB. I personally think that part of the reason why he was so successful as a fantasy QB last year was due to injuries at the RB position. Dillon is getting older and missed a few games last year and wasn't as strong as usual in the games he played. With Dillion healthy this year(?) and the Pats drafting Maroney in the 1st round this year, I just don't see Brady passing as much as last year. Does anyone else have any ideas about this?

2001 15 games ranked 21

2002 16 games ranked 9

2003 16 games ranked 11

2004 16 games ranked 10

2005 16 games ranked 2

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

I'm of the opinion that outside of Manning, Brady and Hasselbeck are the only absolute locks to put up very good numbers this year. All of the other remaining "elite" QB's come with plenty of upside but some serious injury concerns as well. Simply put, if you're looking for great value, Brady and Hasselbeck aren't your guys. That said, you won't have to worry about them either. They'll flat out produce for you.

 

[RAPTURE]

 

[David Yudkin]

I've been saying this all off season, and Brady will be one of my over valued picks in a group staff article coming out soon.

Brady ranked so high last year due the sieve of a defense the Pats had early in the year, the lack of a running game, and out of pure necessity.

New England had 85 fewer rushing attempts and 80 more passing attempts than in 2004.

With the defense healthier, the running game shored up, the lack of WR depth, and less need to put the team on his back, Brady should see his numbers come in closer to his other seasons where he ranked in the QB9-11 range.

 

[RAPTURE]

I've been saying this all off season, and Brady will be one of my over valued picks in a group staff article coming out soon.

Brady ranked so high last year due the sieve of a defense the Pats had early in the year, the lack of a running game, and out of pure necessity.

New England had 85 fewer rushing attempts and 80 more passing attempts than in 2004.

With the defense healthier, the running game shored up, the lack of WR depth, and less need to put the team on his back, Brady should see his numbers come in closer to his other seasons where he ranked in the QB9-11 range.

All it takes is a couple of injuries in a game or two and they are back to where they were last year. No one knows the status of R. Harrison and whether or not he will be back for week 1, week 9 or even for the entire year. They lost W. McGinest to free agency and T. Bruschi is not the same player as he was a couple of years back. If the Pats miss out on T. Law, I see them being a mediocre defense at best.As for the running game, I agree, they did shore up their backfield with Maroney. But the verdict is still out on whether or not he is ready for the big time. If he ends up playing like JJ Arington did last year, then the Pats will have to count on C. Dillon for 20+ carries a game.....which is quite scary to say the least.

I agree losing D. Givens to FA hurt the passing game to a certain degree, but in the Patriots system one wide receiver does not make the passing game click. The system allows everyone to touch the ball and this will allow Brady to put up numbers in the top 5 once again.

Overall, it is all about the defense, and I do not see any sign of improvement from prior year.

RAPTURE

 

[Warhogs]

Simple answer is yes.

There is nothing wrong with Brady and for the past few years he was always under rated a bit it seemed. Now he is generally being drafted in the top 3 or 4 QBs. I personally feel he will most likely be in the 6-10 range so if he gets drafted earlier than that he is over rated IMO.

Defense should play better, loss of Givens with questionable replacements at WR, possible poor weather games during fantasy playoffs (have not looked at NE schedule). I will look at him in the 6-10 range but he will probably be gone.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Brady goes from being underrated for the past three years to being overrated. I cant think of too many other QBs that are as conistent at as he is.

Easily a top 5 QB IMHO

 

[David Yudkin]

If the Pats miss out on T. Law

John Clayton mentioned the other day that the Patriots are really the only team left in the Law sweepstakes and that he will eventually sign with them. Obviously, he hasn't yet, but I would expect them to get him back.I happen to think that the Pats defense is somewhere between the dominant one from a couple of seasons ago and the one that started the season last year.The latter part of the year the Patriots shut down the run, and by the end of the year came and some guys came back they were a decent defense (albeit not for a long duration).In Weeks 13-16 (ignoring the MIA game when the starters sat) and their two playoff games, N.E. allowed an average of 205 total yards and 9 points per game. Granted, some of the teams were mediocre, but they still played TB, JAX, and DEN in that 6-game stretch. I doubt they will suffer the rash of injuries again all at once like they did last year.As for their WR corps, there's Branch (currently holding out), Troy Brown (hasn't had more than 40 receptions in 5 years), Caldwell (career high of 28 receptions in a season), and no one else on the roster with more than 3 CAREER receptions. While the system may call for spreading the ball around, there still is not much to work with at WR this year (although the TEs might see more targets).ANother issue last year was the Dillon, Faulk, and Pass were all hurt at once at RB, thus slowing the run and limiting patterns with RB as options.

 

[ptsteelers]

(Jumping around a bit here) ...

Has Brady ever missed anytime ?

I don't recall an injury ?

(Sorry ... just had to ask)

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

To an extent, yes he is overrated.

He is a "safe" pick, but his usual numbers place him in a class of QBs that generally can be had MUCH later in the draft.

QB3 is way too high for him.

 

[Bri]

I ended up with Brady as my QB2 last year in my auction league. I wasn't really thrilled with it initially since I didn't really consider him a strong fantasy QB, but he I was pleasantly surprised when I was forced to start him when Bulger went down. This year Brady is ranked much higher than he has in past seasons. I figured he would be ranked higher this year than he has in the past, but I was pretty surprised to see him ranked as the #2 QB. I personally think that part of the reason why he was so successful as a fantasy QB last year was due to injuries at the RB position. Dillon is getting older and missed a few games last year and wasn't as strong as usual in the games he played. With Dillion healthy this year(?) and the Pats drafting Maroney in the 1st round this year, I just don't see Brady passing as much as last year. Does anyone else have any ideas about this?

2001 15 games ranked 21

2002 16 games ranked 9

2003 16 games ranked 11

2004 16 games ranked 10

2005 16 games ranked 2

Pats backup RBs did OK.Since the DBs can't hit the WRs after 5 yards, stellar QBs have easily stayed stellar QBs. Brady's a guarantee to be top 10 (unless he suddenly gets hurt) so is Manning. Once McNabb, Carson, and Daunte play like their old selves, them too. It just doesn't seem that hard for them. It might be the rule, might be because sometimes stars do make the game look easy....not sure why but GB em'.

 

[Bri]

To an extent, yes he is overrated.

He is a "safe" pick, but his usual numbers place him in a class of QBs that generally can be had MUCH later in the draft.

QB3 is way too high for him.

He was second last year, so how is 3 overrating him? please elaborate

 

[David Yudkin]

To an extent, yes he is overrated.

He is a "safe" pick, but his usual numbers place him in a class of QBs that generally can be had MUCH later in the draft.

QB3 is way too high for him.

He was second last year, so how is 3 overrating him? please elaborate

Brady ranked in the 9-11 range his previous years.Due to injuries, the team gave up way more points and struggled to field RBs. The team passed 80+ times more and ran 80 times less.

If things revert to more the usual in New England, why would Brady be expected to stay as the #2 QB?

 

[Bri]

To an extent, yes he is overrated.

He is a "safe" pick, but his usual numbers place him in a class of QBs that generally can be had MUCH later in the draft.

QB3 is way too high for him.

He was second last year, so how is 3 overrating him? please elaborate

Brady ranked in the 9-11 range his previous years.Due to injuries, the team gave up way more points and struggled to field RBs. The team passed 80+ times more and ran 80 times less.

If things revert to more the usual in New England, why would Brady be expected to stay as the #2 QB?

wasn't my opinion but KRS' I just asked why the drop. Previously, I had stated top 10 lock but given no ranked #. I'll play though-because 80 passes over a 16 game season is just 5 a game and I can't imagine losing 5(if he did) attempts a game would affect his stats dramatically.

 

[David Yudkin]

To an extent, yes he is overrated.

He is a "safe" pick, but his usual numbers place him in a class of QBs that generally can be had MUCH later in the draft.

QB3 is way too high for him.

He was second last year, so how is 3 overrating him? please elaborate

Brady ranked in the 9-11 range his previous years.Due to injuries, the team gave up way more points and struggled to field RBs. The team passed 80+ times more and ran 80 times less.

If things revert to more the usual in New England, why would Brady be expected to stay as the #2 QB?

wasn't my opinion but KRS' I just asked why the drop. Previously, I had stated top 10 lock but given no ranked #. I'll play though-because 80 passes over a 16 game season is just 5 a game and I can't imagine losing 5(if he did) attempts a game would affect his stats dramatically.

Brady had 46 more completions and 418 more yards than the season before.Part of the reason Brady ranked so high is that QB scoring overall for top guys was much lower than in previous seasons. The Top 12 QB averaged 278 points in a 4 pts per TD league vs. 325 points the previous season. Brady's numbers from 2005 in 2004 would have ranked 7th.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Part of the reason Brady ranked so high is that QB scoring overall for top guys was much lower than in previous seasons. The Top 12 QB averaged 278 points in a 4 pts per TD league vs. 325 points the previous season. Brady's numbers from 2005 in 2004 would have ranked 7th.

Furthermore, I think part of Brady being ranked really high is a reaction to the uncertainty that ravaged the QB position last year. Culpepper, McNabb, Bulger, Favre, Collins, Brooks, Leftwich, Green were all hurt, benched, or disappointments to some degree. Even Manning, who was being drafted ridiculously high after his huge '04, didn't live up to expectations (as unrealistic as those expecations were). Brady is solid, safe, never misses a game, and will never be benched and is on a good offense. I think to a lot of people, that counts for a lot after last season.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Other than Manning, there's no one to really rank above him. You can pretty much pencil Brady in for atleast 3600 yards and 25 TDs, with upside to 4000 yards and 28 TDs. What other QB do you feel comfortble putting up those numbers?

 

[Doug Drinen]

Other than Manning, there's no one to really rank above him.

Somebody has to be #2. Were it not for the injury, I suspect Palmer would be the clear #2, or maybe even #1B. I agree that Brady does not represent value at #2, but I can't think of another QB (other than Manning) I'd rather have.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Other than Manning, there's no one to really rank above him. You can pretty much pencil Brady in for atleast 3600 yards and 25 TDs, with upside to 4000 yards and 28 TDs.

Do you feel comfortable drafting him at his current ADP to put up QB9-10 type numbers?

What other QB do you feel comfortble putting up those numbers?

Hasselbeck, Manning 2: electric bugaloo, Bledsoe, Plummer and Delhomme should all put up comparable numbers. None of them come with any significant risk compared to Brady.Brooks & Bulger are two who come to mind who could easily meet or exceed average Brady but of course come with more risk.

 

[H.K.]

Josh McDaniels is the key.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Other than Manning, there's no one to really rank above him. You can pretty much pencil Brady in for atleast 3600 yards and 25 TDs, with upside to 4000 yards and 28 TDs.

Do you feel comfortable drafting him at his current ADP to put up QB9-10 type numbers?

What other QB do you feel comfortble putting up those numbers?

Hasselbeck, Manning 2: electric bugaloo, Bledsoe, Plummer and Delhomme should all put up comparable numbers. None of them come with any significant risk compared to Brady.Brooks & Bulger are two who come to mind who could easily meet or exceed average Brady but of course come with more risk.

The ADP's of each according to this site arealmer 38

Brady 43

Hasselbeck 51

Eli 55

McNabb 56

Seems like he's in about the right place relative to the others to me. I wouldn't take any of them that high but that's neither here nor there.

 

[The Jacket]

If the Pats miss out on T. Law

John Clayton mentioned the other day that the Patriots are really the only team left in the Law sweepstakes and that he will eventually sign with them. Obviously, he hasn't yet, but I would expect them to get him back.

Clayton changes his mind daily. A few days ago, he said it's all but set in stone that he'll end up a Chief, that he'd already signed a contract and that he's just waiting until training camp is (almost) over.

 

[bbuster]

Part of the reason Brady ranked so high is that QB scoring overall for top guys was much lower than in previous seasons.  The Top 12 QB averaged 278 points in a 4 pts per TD league vs. 325 points the previous season.  Brady's numbers from 2005 in 2004 would have ranked 7th.

Furthermore, I think part of Brady being ranked really high is a reaction to the uncertainty that ravaged the QB position last year. Culpepper, McNabb, Bulger, Favre, Collins, Brooks, Leftwich, Green were all hurt, benched, or disappointments to some degree. Even Manning, who was being drafted ridiculously high after his huge '04, didn't live up to expectations (as unrealistic as those expecations were). Brady is solid, safe, never misses a game, and will never be benched and is on a good offense. I think to a lot of people, that counts for a lot after last season.

I was looking at the QB rankings again this morning and pretty much came to the same conclusion. That being said, I think this may be the year more than any other that reaching for a QB early may be a mistake. The highest I have ever reached for a QB in the past was grabbing Bulger in the 5th or 6th round last year and that felt like a value rather than a risk.(until he went down again) I think I'll be waiting on a QB again this year. I just don't think Brady represents value this year.

 

[Biabreakable]

Tom Brady had 71 more pass attempts in 2002 than he did in 2005. So I do not think that the high number of times he passed the ball in 2005 is an anomoly that we should not expect him to repeat at all.

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| Passing | Rushing |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| 2000 nwe | 1 | 1 3 33.3 6 2.0 0 0 | 0 0 0 |

| 2001 nwe | 15 | 264 413 63.9 2843 6.9 18 12 | 36 43 0 |

| 2002 nwe | 16 | 373 601 62.1 3764 6.3 28 14 | 42 110 1 |

| 2003 nwe | 16 | 317 527 60.2 3620 6.9 23 12 | 42 63 1 |

| 2004 nwe | 16 | 288 474 60.8 3692 7.8 28 14 | 43 28 0 |

| 2005 nwe | 16 | 334 530 63.0 4110 7.8 26 14 | 27 89 1 |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| TOTAL | 80 | 1577 2548 61.9 18035 7.1 123 66 | 190 333 3 |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

Then you have 2004 which was actualy more of an exception than the trend I see for his production. His pass attempts and completions were lower than average but he still threw for 3692 yards and 28 TD. So projecting his numbers to take a big hit because of improved running game and defense doesen't appear to have effected him when the Pats had this in 2004.

Bradys numbers in 2004 are overshadowed by Manning and Culpeppers monster seasons in 2004. Doesen't mean they were not still great.

Now you have CPep in Miami and some uncertainty about his health. McNabb will fall back because he no longer has TO. Palmer may miss a few games due to his injury.

Brady is the safest Qb out there after Manning.

It depends on your leagues scoring and what else you can do from your draft position as to if Brady is a value pick for you or not.

Considering how consistent he has been I think you could do a lot worse than use a pick on Brady.

 

[David Yudkin]

Tom Brady had 71 more pass attempts in 2002 than he did in 2005. So I do not think that the high number of times he passed the ball in 2005 is an anomoly that we should not expect him to repeat at all.

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| Passing | Rushing |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| 2000 nwe | 1 | 1 3 33.3 6 2.0 0 0 | 0 0 0 |

| 2001 nwe | 15 | 264 413 63.9 2843 6.9 18 12 | 36 43 0 |

| 2002 nwe | 16 | 373 601 62.1 3764 6.3 28 14 | 42 110 1 |

| 2003 nwe | 16 | 317 527 60.2 3620 6.9 23 12 | 42 63 1 |

| 2004 nwe | 16 | 288 474 60.8 3692 7.8 28 14 | 43 28 0 |

| 2005 nwe | 16 | 334 530 63.0 4110 7.8 26 14 | 27 89 1 |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| TOTAL | 80 | 1577 2548 61.9 18035 7.1 123 66 | 190 333 3 |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

Then you have 2004 which was actualy more of an exception than the trend I see for his production. His pass attempts and completions were lower than average but he still threw for 3692 yards and 28 TD. So projecting his numbers to take a big hit because of improved running game and defense doesen't appear to have effected him when the Pats had this in 2004.

Bradys numbers in 2004 are overshadowed by Manning and Culpeppers monster seasons in 2004. Doesen't mean they were not still great.

Now you have CPep in Miami and some uncertainty about his health. McNabb will fall back because he no longer has TO. Palmer may miss a few games due to his injury.

Brady is the safest Qb out there after Manning.

It depends on your leagues scoring and what else you can do from your draft position as to if Brady is a value pick for you or not.

Considering how consistent he has been I think you could do a lot worse than use a pick on Brady.

2002 was the infamous era of the "dink and dunk" passing scheme. The Pats had zip chewy success rushing the ball and went with three step drops and 4 yard patterns to control the ball--thus the low ypa numbers.Consistent? Yes. Reliable? Yes. Durable to start 16 games? Also yes. Value as the #2 or #3 QB? Not so much.

IMO, this year it's Manning early or wait . . . and wait . . . and wait.

And I'm not so sure that a QB that plays all the time is a great attribute. There are so many QB that can post decent numbers these days that someone that misses a game or two won't really hurt you if he has a high ppg average. You can always find a palatable QB to start in a pinch. You can't often say that about a true stud RB or WR.

There's so little difference in QB scoring to begin with (again, except for the uber studs if there are any), that there really is not a great drop off in using your QB2 or QB3 (unless you have Manning).

I'm not knocking Brady, only that there's not a ton of advantages in taking him where he's getting drafted unless you are in a league where you can't swap or change starting players.

 

[joffer]

IMO, this year it's Manning early or wait . . . and wait . . . and wait.

I've got him ranked at #2, but it's at the head of a group that's so closely grouped together, the one that has value for me is the last one still on the board.