Brady vs. Brees (1 Viewer)

[Coolerheads]

I know everyone has a man-crush on Brady right now, but has anyone noticed his O-line is horrible? It seems like every FBG scribe out there (except Dodds) is saying in a leauge like mine (5 for a passing TD, -2 for a pick) that Brady is worth pulling the trigger on almost a round earlier than Brees.

Why?

Yeah, Brandon Lloyd is back with his OC; I get it. But who has been more consistent the past four years? Brees. Who has a worse rushing game, not including passes to RBs? Brees. Who is younger? Brees. Who plays a weaker pass defense, regarding SOS? Again, Brees.

I'm just not convinced there is that big a difference between the two. Goodness, the man passed for almost 5500 yards last year, what more does he have to prove?

(Oh yeah, Stafford and Newton are keepers in this leauge, and Rodgers won't be around when I pick 7th. Nor will Calvin. After "the big three" RBs, who will also be gone, it's a crapshoot at that position until you get past the next 7 or 8, as far as I'm concerned. So I'm taking either Brees or Brady in the first, one way or another, and hoping for Charles in the second to go along with my keeper--Fred Jackson--in the 4th.)

If I am picking one of them that early, I want consistency and reliability, not somebody who is going to be on his back half the season. So I am leaning towards Brees, who wouldn't be there in the 2nd. (Trust me, I've been drafting with these guys for a decade, and they are QB crazy.)

What do you think?

 

[Raleigh Engineers]

I know everyone has a man-crush on Brady right now, but has anyone noticed his O-line is horrible? It seems like every FBG scribe out there (except Dodds) is saying in a leauge like mine (5 for a passing TD, -2 for a pick) that Brady is worth pulling the trigger on almost a round earlier than Brees.

Why?

Yeah, Brandon Lloyd is back with his OC; I get it. But who has been more consistent the past four years? Brees. Who has a worse rushing game, not including passes to RBs? Brees. Who is younger? Brees. Who plays a weaker pass defense, regarding SOS? Again, Brees.

I'm just not convinced there is that big a difference between the two. Goodness, the man passed for almost 5500 yards last year, what more does he have to prove?

(Oh yeah, Stafford and Newton are keepers in this leauge, and Rodgers won't be around when I pick 7th. Nor will Calvin. After "the big three" RBs, who will also be gone, it's a crapshoot at that position until you get past the next 7 or 8, as far as I'm concerned. So I'm taking either Brees or Brady in the first, one way or another, and hoping for Charles in the second to go along with my keeper--Fred Jackson--in the 4th.)

If I am picking one of them that early, I want consistency and reliability, not somebody who is going to be on his back half the season. So I am leaning towards Brees, who wouldn't be there in the 2nd. (Trust me, I've been drafting with these guys for a decade, and they are QB crazy.)

What do you think?

I am struggling with the same decision.

 

[chiefs2929]

So Brees has a worse running game? They run it in the red zone all the time. Brees only has 1 weapon, granted he is a good one, but Brady has 4 supreme weapons.

 

[HairySasquatch]

So Brees has a worse running game? They run it in the red zone all the time. Brees only has 1 weapon, granted he is a good one, but Brady has 4 supreme weapons.

Graham + Colston + Sproles = 1?

 

[Coolerheads]

So Brees has a worse running game? They run it in the red zone all the time. Brees only has 1 weapon, granted he is a good one, but Brady has 4 supreme weapons.

Brees only has one weapon? I would love to know which one that is.And how many weapons did he have last year, pray tell?

The reasons people were down on him a month or two ago was because he was holding out and the loss of Sean Peyton was going to somehow make him a bad QB. Turns out he signed the contract, and the OC and DC coaches are the same, with the O-line coach becoming the "head" coach.

Nothing to worry about here, folks: The guy who has averaged 4,888 yards a season the past four years still has a bunch of great players around him, no running game that he isn't connected to, and a crappy D. He will be a monster this year, and I can't understand why people aren't seeing it.

 

[LHUCKS]

A good question.

In my main league my decision may come down to these two.

Both have their issues and I think both will come back down to earth this year.

 

[amicsta]

New orleans was 6th in rushing last season. Not saying that makes brady better (although i would rather have him), but the idea that the pats rushing attack is better than NO is simply wrong.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I vote for Brees. Since moving to the Saints in 2006, he's outscored Brady in 4 out of the last 6 years. His best year (2011) was also better than Brady's best year (2007) in most fantasy scoring formats.

He also plays in a dome with an easier schedule in a pass happy division. Both of these guys are a lock for top 5, but I think Brees is the safer pick and may have more upside as well even considering all of Brady's weapons.

 

[Coolerheads]

FIrst off, thanks for all the input.

New orleans was 6th in rushing last season. Not saying that makes brady better (although i would rather have him), but the idea that the pats rushing attack is better than NO is simply wrong.

Yeah, okay, I'll concede that; but my point was (though I stated it poorly) that that Sproles is a big part of the passing game, too, and we have yet to see if Vereen and/or Ridley are going to do the same for Brady.

Even then, I'm not sure why everyone is focusing on that minimal part of the post; Brees had 657 attemps last year (46 more than Brady did, when they had the 6th ranked rushing attack in the leauge,) and I see no reason it's not going to be the same this year. If anything, Brady passing more without BJGE rushing--and blocking-- means he'll just be on his back more often. Because, again, their line is horrible.

I guess you can grab Brady and I'll take Brees, and we'll see where we both end up at the end of the year. I'm thinking I'll have an MVP candidate, and you'll have a guy on IR.

And again, I am going to take one of them in that leauge; I'm still just trying to find out why there is a whole round of difference between them.

 

[lbouchard]

Do you draft solely according to last year's stats? Then why would you rank SOS based on last year's stats? SOS shouldn't be a factor pre season. Way too much turnover.

 

[Reepicheep]

I would happily take either of them in the mid to late first round.

 

[Coolerheads]

Do you draft solely according to last year's stats? Then why would you rank SOS based on last year's stats? SOS shouldn't be a factor pre season. Way too much turnover.

Of course I don't draft that way, that would be stupid.

SOS is silly, unless you are comparing games against teams in the second half of this season. That said, do you really think that four games against the Jets and Bills are going to be easier than 8 games against Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay?

Obviously, Brady/Brees have played those respective teams (and that schedule) every year, and both seem to do okay. For me, SOS is not a big deal, but it is one of many factors that play into my projections. I would, however, be amazed if the NFC South suddenly became the place that nobody wanted to throw the ball in; I'm expecting more 27-33 shootouts than ever before. "Revis Island" isn't located anywhere near Dixie; meaning, I have seen nothing that tells me the NFC South has done anything to shore up their D to the point that teams aren't going to just throw all day.

Oh yeah, and as a side note, I'll ask again: Can anybody tell me when we should expect the O-line of the Pats to actually, you know, protect the QB? Brady has been sacked 16, 25 and 32 times the past three years, and I sure don't see that trend decreasing, the way their starters have performed in the preseason. People underestimate the continuity of the OL in making their projections, I think, although I haven't done a study on it (yet.) But when every I see 3 or 4 guys changing positions or 1 or 2 coming into the line for the first time, I alway throw up a red flag.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I think that the Patriots pre-season offensive line struggles dont (wont) really be representative of what they are going to roll out in the regular season. They are missing 3/5ths of their desired starters. Mankins just came back from knee surgery and looked ok in limited action. Sebastian Volmer is back from injury and Brian Waters is in "retirement", but a local beat writer tweeted today that his equipment is now in his locker - where his locker was empty earlier in the week. Speculation is that they cleared some money to pay him what he wants. If you put those guys back onto the line, then it goes from horrible to a good pass blocking unit. It may take them a few weeks to gel, but beyond that I think their line play will be comparable to recent years.

 

[Coolerheads]

Thanks, Itchy. I've known I was going to pick one or the other for about 3 weeks now, so I've been following the OL for the Pats as if I drafted them. Your insight makes me a lot more confident that if I can't get Brees, Brady should be just fine.

I know, it's a dilemma most people would love to have: Brady or Brees, right? Still, I have nothing else to fret about picking 7th with these settings and keepers, so after a dozen years in this leauge, it seemed unnatural to not worry about something!

 

[HurryUpSundays]

Saints D is putrid.

Dome.

Schedule.

Graham, Colston, Sproles, Moore, Henderson, Pierre are all plenty dangerous with Brees at the helm. Brees is on a mission to give Goddell and the league a big Ef you and also to prove himself worthy of that contract. Brees seems like a guy ready to relish in the underdog role.

I've drafted him every chance I've had.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think that the Patriots pre-season offensive line struggles dont (wont) really be representative of what they are going to roll out in the regular season. They are missing 3/5ths of their desired starters. Mankins just came back from knee surgery and looked ok in limited action. Sebastian Volmer is back from injury and Brian Waters is in "retirement", but a local beat writer tweeted today that his equipment is now in his locker - where his locker was empty earlier in the week. Speculation is that they cleared some money to pay him what he wants. If you put those guys back onto the line, then it goes from horrible to a good pass blocking unit. It may take them a few weeks to gel, but beyond that I think their line play will be comparable to recent years.

this is actually really good information, thanks for the post

 

[mere blitzianity]

Saints D is putrid.

Dome.

Schedule.

Graham, Colston, Sproles, Moore, Henderson, Pierre are all plenty dangerous with Brees at the helm. Brees is on a mission to give Goddell and the league a big Ef you and also to prove himself worthy of that contract. Brees seems like a guy ready to relish in the underdog role.

I've drafted him every chance I've had.

This sums it all up for me!

 

[Zeff]

You're splitting hairs if you're trying to find a definitive determining factor between these two. Their histories and immediate prospects both suggest that. If you assume anything more concrete than that they'll be more or less identical, you're putting too much value into your projections.

Take the guy you'd be happier rooting for.

 

[Louisville Slugger]

Another thing to consider is that Brady was a BRUTAL playoff schedule. He faces San Franciso and Houston in weeks 14 and 15. Both of those teams pressue the qb which is Brady's achillies heal and that issue could be magnified this year with sub par offensive line play.

In the end you can't go wrong with either guy, but I think I would choose Brees over Brady.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Nice thread CoolerHeads.

I'm all in on Brady but would take Brees if not available. I'm in the camp that Lloyd will make a large impact giving Brady the deep threat he's been lacking for years. I'm guessing that Brees becomes the de facto OC with Payton suspended a la Manning in Indy. In that case you wouldn't think that they will be calling a ton of running plays

 

[pollardsvision]

I'd take either, but I'd ever so slightly prefer Brady. I think it's close enough that the tad bit of uncertainty without Sean Payton gives Brady the nod for me.

 

[LHUCKS]

Another thing to consider is that Brady was a BRUTAL playoff schedule. He faces San Franciso and Houston in weeks 14 and 15.

This is an excellent point actually.Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[Coolerheads]

Another thing to consider is that Brady was a BRUTAL playoff schedule. He faces San Franciso and Houston in weeks 14 and 15.

This is an excellent point actually.Thanks for pointing it out.

Again, predicting SOS that far in advance is a dicey proposition. But despite the "amount of turnover every year" argument, I've gotta like Brees' week 14-16 schedule (@NYG, vs. TB, and @ Dallas) a whole lot better; that NYG game is the only one he should see bad weather in all season.

 

[David Yudkin]

Another thing to consider is that Brady was a BRUTAL playoff schedule. He faces San Franciso and Houston in weeks 14 and 15.

This is an excellent point actually.Thanks for pointing it out.

Yeah. Good thing. The Niners only held Brees to 462/4 and the Texans kept him to 370/3 last year. Both teams showed what happens when you have an elite QB up against a defense that plays mostly running teams or less powerful offenses.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Saints D is putrid.

Dome.

Schedule.

Graham, Colston, Sproles, Moore, Henderson, Pierre are all plenty dangerous with Brees at the helm. Brees is on a mission to give Goddell and the league a big Ef you and also to prove himself worthy of that contract. Brees seems like a guy ready to relish in the underdog role.

I've drafted him every chance I've had.

Pats D was much worse last year

 

[SSOG]

Saints D is putrid.

Dome.

Schedule.

Graham, Colston, Sproles, Moore, Henderson, Pierre are all plenty dangerous with Brees at the helm. Brees is on a mission to give Goddell and the league a big Ef you and also to prove himself worthy of that contract. Brees seems like a guy ready to relish in the underdog role.

I've drafted him every chance I've had.

Pats D was much worse last year

Last year was last year.

 

[HurryUpSundays]

Saints D is putrid.

Dome.

Schedule.

Graham, Colston, Sproles, Moore, Henderson, Pierre are all plenty dangerous with Brees at the helm. Brees is on a mission to give Goddell and the league a big Ef you and also to prove himself worthy of that contract. Brees seems like a guy ready to relish in the underdog role.

I've drafted him every chance I've had.

Pats D was much worse last year

And Brees still outscored Brady?