Branden Oliver (1 Viewer)

[tunamelt warrior]

Anyone holding on Oliver? Or is it time to drop him to the waiver wire for the likes of Jonas Gray, Daniel Herron, Latavius Murray, or Bryce Brown?

Oliver did have 13 carries last week compared to Mathew's 16, but neither scored a TD. Oliver is still a part of the game plan obviously, but is he a "hold" or "drop" at this point?

 

[Casting Couch]

in redraft.

Jonas Gray

Lat Murray

Branden Oliver

Dan Herron

Bryce Brown

 

[Shutout]

Anyone holding on Oliver? Or is it time to drop him to the waiver wire for the likes of Jonas Gray, Daniel Herron, Latavius Murray, or Bryce Brown?

Oliver did have 13 carries last week compared to Mathew's 16, but neither scored a TD. Oliver is still a part of the game plan obviously, but is he a "hold" or "drop" at this point?

Hold. He CAN produce by himself. He can produce with Matthews (much like Woodhead did last year).

The issue is more Chargers overall than Oliver. If Matthews came back and put up 25 fantasy points and Oliver 3, yeah, I would be saying "it was a fun run" but they were both comparable to each other...in essence, the Chargers ALL look a little flat right now. So hold and see if opportunity and time give you a strong finish in 3-4 weeks.

 

[humpback]

Just a handcuff.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Any chance Oliver gets the gig next year?

From Rotoworld:

The Union-Tribune San Diego's Kevin Acee doesn't believe the Chargers will re-sign impending free agent Ryan Mathews.

Analysis: Acee believes Mathews' time left in San Diego should be "measured in weeks." The former 12th overall pick just can't stay healthy, as he's battled ankle, shoulder, and knee injuries this season. He's played in just six games in 2014 and has just one 16-game season under his belt through five years. Mathews turned 27 in October. He'll likely be looking at $3-4 million annual-average offers.

 

[Jack White]

Any chance Oliver gets the gig next year?

From Rotoworld:

The Union-Tribune San Diego's Kevin Acee doesn't believe the Chargers will re-sign impending free agent Ryan Mathews.

Analysis: Acee believes Mathews' time left in San Diego should be "measured in weeks." The former 12th overall pick just can't stay healthy, as he's battled ankle, shoulder, and knee injuries this season. He's played in just six games in 2014 and has just one 16-game season under his belt through five years. Mathews turned 27 in October. He'll likely be looking at $3-4 million annual-average offers.

I doubt it. They'll be in the market for multiple backs.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Agree. Oliver had a couple of decent games but faded. I think he is more suited to a COP / 3rd down role.

 

[packersfan]

Agree. Oliver had a couple of decent games but faded. I think he is more suited to a COP / 3rd down role.

He's even lost that role to Brown. Be interesting to see how the touches are handled if Mathews can't play this week.

 

[Tau837]

Brown is better than Oliver in pass protection, and pass protection is a major issue for the Chargers. No one should be surprised that Oliver did not take over the third down role.

 

[Slider]

Rookie wall. He's a keeper for next year.

 

[Tau837]

IMO there is no way the Chargers go into next season with Oliver, Brown, and Woodhead as their RB solution. I think they will either sign an inexpensive veteran (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB NLT third round.

 

[humpback]

Rookie wall. He's a keeper for next year.

When exactly did he hit this "wall"? He has less than 150 touches on the season.

 

[rjv]

IMO there is no way the Chargers go into next season with Oliver, Brown, and Woodhead as their RB solution. I think they will either sign an inexpensive veteran (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB NLT third round.

Or go the direct opposite and sign a guy like Lynch??

 

[Tau837]

IMO there is no way the Chargers go into next season with Oliver, Brown, and Woodhead as their RB solution. I think they will either sign an inexpensive veteran (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB NLT third round.

Or go the direct opposite and sign a guy like Lynch??

Lynch will be an inexpensive veteran. No one will pay him what he is currently due to make. So, yes, possibly Lynch. But I doubt it.

 

[Futz]

IMO there is no way the Chargers go into next season with Oliver, Brown, and Woodhead as their RB solution. I think they will either sign an inexpensive veteran (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB NLT third round.

Or go the direct opposite and sign a guy like Lynch??

Lynch will be an inexpensive veteran. No one will pay him what he is currently due to make. So, yes, possibly Lynch. But I doubt it.

I'm not sure I agree. If Lynch leaves Seattle, he'll probably go to a playoff team on the cusp of greatness (Dallas?) and get paid quite a bit on a 1 year deal to do it.

 

[Tau837]

IMO there is no way the Chargers go into next season with Oliver, Brown, and Woodhead as their RB solution. I think they will either sign an inexpensive veteran (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB NLT third round.

Or go the direct opposite and sign a guy like Lynch??

Lynch will be an inexpensive veteran. No one will pay him what he is currently due to make. So, yes, possibly Lynch. But I doubt it.

I'm not sure I agree. If Lynch leaves Seattle, he'll probably go to a playoff team on the cusp of greatness (Dallas?) and get paid quite a bit on a 1 year deal to do it.

Well, if someone is going to pay him a large salary, I don't think it will be the Chargers.

And at the bolded. Are they getting a new QB?

 

[Futz]

IMO there is no way the Chargers go into next season with Oliver, Brown, and Woodhead as their RB solution. I think they will either sign an inexpensive veteran (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB NLT third round.

Or go the direct opposite and sign a guy like Lynch??

Lynch will be an inexpensive veteran. No one will pay him what he is currently due to make. So, yes, possibly Lynch. But I doubt it.

I'm not sure I agree. If Lynch leaves Seattle, he'll probably go to a playoff team on the cusp of greatness (Dallas?) and get paid quite a bit on a 1 year deal to do it.

Well, if someone is going to pay him a large salary, I don't think it will be the Chargers.

And at the bolded. Are they getting a new QB?

Believe me, I kinda laughed when I typed it. I think I meant they think they are on the cusp and Jerry Jones would be the type to break the bank for the splash factor because he thinks they are close.

Arizona with Palmer back maybe?

 

[packer_junkie]

You don't think the cowboys are resigning murray? Also, Lynch will command more than a 1 year deal. 2-3 years to somewhere like Indy, Baltimore, or even New England

 

[Futz]

You don't think the cowboys are resigning murray? Also, Lynch will command more than a 1 year deal. 2-3 years to somewhere like Indy, Baltimore, or even New England

I read somewhere that the Boys are going to be cash strapped and still need to get Dez under wraps. Murray is pricing himself out and I think that's why they are driving him into the ground with touches.

 

[towney]

So is Brown going to out touch Oliver this Sunday?

 

[Slider]

Rookie wall. He's a keeper for next year.

When exactly did he hit this "wall"? He has less than 150 touches on the season.

About the time college teams stop playing. Has nothing to do with touches. Kinda like if they asked you to stay at work 2 hours longer today.

 

[humpback]

Rookie wall. He's a keeper for next year.

When exactly did he hit this "wall"? He has less than 150 touches on the season.

About the time college teams stop playing. Has nothing to do with touches. Kinda like if they asked you to stay at work 2 hours longer today.

Um, college teams played last week and many will continue with bowl games (like Oliver did last year). That's the reason Oliver has stunk for most of the season?

 

[EBF]

Good game on Saturday. Had several strong individual plays where he made something out of nothing. It was refreshing to see that after a barren stretch of production, though a bit troubling that they had Ronnie Brown in on the key drives at the end of the game.

It will be interesting to see what San Diego does this offseason. Mathews is a good talent, but gets injured constantly. Will they sign him at a discounted price or move on? Neither would surprise me. If they let him walk then I think they'll draft a rookie in the first four rounds, but in either scenario BO should have a chance to get some snaps again next year. Hopefully the Chargers will shore up their run blocking so BO doesn't have to work miracles just to gain positive yardage every carry.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Good game on Saturday. Had several strong individual plays where he made something out of nothing. It was refreshing to see that after a barren stretch of production, though a bit troubling that they had Ronnie Brown in on the key drives at the end of the game.

It will be interesting to see what San Diego does this offseason. Mathews is a good talent, but gets injured constantly. Will they sign him at a discounted price or move on? Neither would surprise me. If they let him walk then I think they'll draft a rookie in the first four rounds, but in either scenario BO should have a chance to get some snaps again next year. Hopefully the Chargers will shore up their run blocking so BO doesn't have to work miracles just to gain positive yardage every carry.

I agree with this. I think the Chargers will let Mathews go (after not being able to rely on him when they needed him) - but, at this point I don't think the job just gets handed to Oliver. I do think he can carve a CoP role out though and perhaps earn the bulk of the carries if he hits the ground running.

 

[packersfan]

Good game on Saturday. Had several strong individual plays where he made something out of nothing. It was refreshing to see that after a barren stretch of production, though a bit troubling that they had Ronnie Brown in on the key drives at the end of the game.

It will be interesting to see what San Diego does this offseason. Mathews is a good talent, but gets injured constantly. Will they sign him at a discounted price or move on? Neither would surprise me. If they let him walk then I think they'll draft a rookie in the first four rounds, but in either scenario BO should have a chance to get some snaps again next year. Hopefully the Chargers will shore up their run blocking so BO doesn't have to work miracles just to gain positive yardage every carry.

I thought he looked better than he had in weeks. From a fantasy perspective it was good to see he was the lead back and got the goal line look (although he was stuffed at the 1). Unfortunately, once they went pass happy he barely got on the field so they clearly don't trust him over either Brown in their hurry-up or pass-first offense. Unless that changes that will cap his upside moving forward.

 

[humpback]

Love the guy, but he's basically a much slower version of MJD who isn't as good in the passing game. Hard to see much upside for fantasy.

 

[packersfan]

Love the guy, but he's basically a much slower version of MJD who isn't as good in the passing game. Hard to see much upside for fantasy.

I think he's been pretty solid as a receiver but he must be horrible in pass pro. I can't think of any other reason why he's buried behind both Browns in their pass-heavy sets.

 

[humpback]

Love the guy, but he's basically a much slower version of MJD who isn't as good in the passing game. Hard to see much upside for fantasy.

I think he's been pretty solid as a receiver but he must be horrible in pass pro. I can't think of any other reason why he's buried behind both Browns in their pass-heavy sets.

I don't think he's bad as a receiver, but not as good as MJD. Same goes for pass pro- he isn't terrible at it, just not as good as the alternatives right now.

 

[packersfan]

Love the guy, but he's basically a much slower version of MJD who isn't as good in the passing game. Hard to see much upside for fantasy.

I think he's been pretty solid as a receiver but he must be horrible in pass pro. I can't think of any other reason why he's buried behind both Browns in their pass-heavy sets.

I don't think he's bad as a receiver, but not as good as MJD. Same goes for pass pro- he isn't terrible at it, just not as good as the alternatives right now.

Yeah he's definitely not as talented as MJD was. MJD was a dynamic back at his best.

I think Oliver could be a solid RB2 as a volume back if he was a starter. He'll catch enough passes and they trust him near the GL so he should get a decent number of TDs to merit that level of production. But it's hard to see him being more than that. I like him and would love to see him do well but there are some clear limitations to his game and how he's used that I'm not sure I'd view him as the clear favorite to be San Diego's starter next season if Mathews is gone.

 

[DaveL]

MJD with less speed but better receiving skills I think is a good comparison

 

[Tau837]

1. Woodhead and Donald Brown will both be back next season and should monopolize the third/passing down RB role.

2. I expect the team will either sign an inexpensive veteran RB (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB in the first 4 rounds, and that player will have first shot at the early/run down role that Mathews has had under this coaching staff.

That leaves very little for Oliver, barring injuries or really poor performance ahead of him.He probably won't even be active on gamedays, until and unless one of the other RBs gets hurt. Just as he was inactive the first two games this season before Woodhead got hurt.

The only opportunity for Oliver would be if the team does not do #2 above and commits to him in the Mathews role. That would be very surprising IMO.

 

[Tau837]

BTW, on pass blocking, PFF shows Oliver has allowed 3 QB hits in 26 pass blocking snaps to date. That is the worst pass blocking efficiency among all of the Chargers RBs except Woodhead. That is why Brown and Brown have earned passing down snaps ahead of Oliver.

 

[packersfan]

BTW, on pass blocking, PFF shows Oliver has allowed 3 QB hits in 26 pass blocking snaps to date. That is the worst pass blocking efficiency among all of the Chargers RBs except Woodhead. That is why Brown and Brown have earned passing down snaps ahead of Oliver.

Good stat. Thanks. And yeah that would explain it.

He did allow a pass rusher to hit Rivers on an INT in the first half against the 49ers. Guy ran right over him.

 

[Jeremy]

He reminds me a bit of DuJuan Harris from the Packers. Kind of came out of nowhere, made some nifty runs that caught your attention, but will probably fade back into obscurity as Harris has.

I hope I'm wrong as I have him in a dynasty league. I regret not selling him when I had the chance.

 

[EBF]

1. Woodhead and Donald Brown will both be back next season and should monopolize the third/passing down RB role.

2. I expect the team will either sign an inexpensive veteran RB (which could be Mathews) or draft a RB in the first 4 rounds, and that player will have first shot at the early/run down role that Mathews has had under this coaching staff.

That leaves very little for Oliver, barring injuries or really poor performance ahead of him.He probably won't even be active on gamedays, until and unless one of the other RBs gets hurt. Just as he was inactive the first two games this season before Woodhead got hurt.

The only opportunity for Oliver would be if the team does not do #2 above and commits to him in the Mathews role. That would be very surprising IMO.

It might play out that way, but it's hardly a given. Bear in mind that Oliver is a rookie this year and it's pretty common for rookies to have reduced roles on their teams because of their inexperience. Not to say he's ever going to be this good, but guys like Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, and LeSean McCoy also split time with some inferior players as rookies. Once they gained experience, they surpassed those players on the depth chart.

With that in mind, I really don't buy Donald Brown as a long-term roadblock to Oliver's success. Oliver is already a better runner and more dangerous receiver. Woodhead could be more of a threat, but I think Oliver is a better runner. I'll be more worried about Mathews and/or whichever rookie RB they draft.

I don't think Oliver is a lock to produce. I have him on a bunch of teams and I'm not assuming I'll get any useful production from him next season. However, I consider his rookie year to be a pretty good success overall. He's going to finish the year with maybe 800+ total yards of offense. Not bad for a UDFA. The YPC leaves something to be desired, but in the games I've watched the blocking has been pretty terrible, so I'm willing to partially overlook it. I think he has announced himself as a player who could have a future. Nothing more. Nothing less. I don't think we can chart his career trajectory with any great confidence right now.

 

[packersfan]

What I think the Chargers should do is draft a RB not too early but not too late and let him and Oliver compete for the starter's job next season with Woodhead the third-down RB. I'd let Brown go. I never understood why they signed him in the first place.

 

[packersfan]

For those playing in Week 17 leagues I could see Oliver being a decent RB2 in PPR if Mathews is out again. I wouldn't expect the Chiefs to bury San Diego early like San Francisco did so the odds of Oliver playing 1 or 2 snaps for an entire half like Saturday night would seem rather remote. Plus, he was the GL back and if they get a shot inside the 5 again I like his chances to score against KC's run defense more than his chances were against San Francisco's.

 

[fruity pebbles]

That Jets game is looking more and more like the outlier for him. 3.4 ypc in games outside that one. Chargers are a poor run blocking team but they're not 3.4 ypc poor. Mathews while in limited time this year is at 4.4 and was at 4.4 last year as well. And he's no world beater.

 

[EBF]

That Jets game is looking more and more like the outlier for him. 3.4 ypc in games outside that one. Chargers are a poor run blocking team but they're not 3.4 ypc poor.

Any game where a back breaks two 50+ yard plays is an outlier.

It had been a while since I watched a San Diego game, but I recorded the Saturday night game and watched all of his carries. I can't speak on all their other games, but in this contest the Chargers didn't block that well for him. Most of his yardage came through individual effort. There were at least 3-4 times when the defense blew up the play and yet Oliver still gained positive yardage by bouncing off a tackle or making somebody miss in space. It was actually pretty impressive. So was the 22 yard run, where he showed some nice cutting and acceleration.

Ultimately, you'd still like the YPC figure to be higher than 3.5. It's a disappointing number, but not necessarily a career killer. LeVeon Bell averaged 3.5 YPC last year on an even bigger workload. Tomlinson did 3.6 YPC in his rookie season for the Chargers. I'm not predicting that kind of success for Oliver. Nobody is. The fact that his rookie season has been a mixed bag will be factored into his price tag. He's probably going to be a late round pick in dynasty startups this year and for me he has done enough to remain a solid hold at that price. If he were sitting on 1200+ rushing yards at 4.5 YPC, he'd be a lot more expensive and there'd be no debate. That's not what happened though.

 

[packersfan]

I was very impressed with Oliver's ability to make the first tackler miss Saturday night. That's one of the attributes I value most in RBs, especially ones who lack clear star talent. Give someone with that ability just a respectable run blocking line and he can be a valuable fantasy asset.

Long-term, though, nearly all of Oliver's production has come due to volume. For him to have anything more than handcuff value next season he'll need to be the clear starter or at worst in a 50-50 committee. A healthy Woodhead almost certainly removes him from third-down consideration.

 

[Tau837]

What I think the Chargers should do is draft a RB not too early but not too late and let him and Oliver compete for the starter's job next season with Woodhead the third-down RB. I'd let Brown go. I never understood why they signed him in the first place.

They signed Brown because he was a relatively inexpensive veteran RB coming off a strong season who could improve their depth. Remember, Mathews went down in the playoffs last year after he carried the offense down the stretch, and it hurt the team that they lacked depth. One can debate whether or not they should have considered Brown to be much of an improvement on that depth, but that was the rationale. And I'm not sure how much of a driver it was, but signing Brown also allowed them to ignore the RB position in the 2014 draft.

Brown is also very good at pass protection, which is important given that the Chargers have a weak OL and do not have strong pass blocking TEs.

I seriously doubt they will release Donald Brown. He is under contract for two more years. If they release him this offseason, they will only net a cap savings of around $800K. It seems much more likely they will release him after the 2015 season.

 

[packersfan]

I'd rather draft a RB in the later rounds than sign someone like Donald Brown but I admit I'm not a fan of the guy. I don't expect the Chargers will release him. Just saying that's what I would do but again I never would've signed him in the first place.

 

[EBF]

Brown isn't a long-term obstacle for Oliver's (or anyone else's) dynasty value. I'd be more worried about whichever rookie they might draft. How big of a priority they make the position in the offseason should say at least a little bit about how they view Oliver internally.

 

[packersfan]

Brown's ahead of Oliver on the depth chart as the passing down RB so he's very much a threat to Oliver's value in my opinion. Woodhead's better than both of them in the passing game so as of right now Oliver would be the No. 3 RB on passing downs or in San Diego's hurry-up offense. That would leave Oliver needing to be the clear lead back on early downs and at the goal line to generate meaningful fantasy value.

I do agree the Chargers will add a RB in some fashion in the offseason unless the market for Mathews is totally dry and he comes back on their terms. I wouldn't rule that out. I'm not sure too many teams are gonna view Mathews as a high priority free agent given his durability issues.

 

[EBF]

Brown turns 28 next season, has one year left on his deal, and has never been more than a below average NFL runner.

If Oliver can't beat him out in the long term then Oliver was never going to have real value anyway.

 

[packersfan]

Brown turns 28 next season, has one year left on his deal, and has never been more than a below average NFL runner.

If Oliver can't beat him out in the long term then Oliver was never going to have real value anyway.

I agree. Pass pro is the area Oliver needs to make significant improvements upon in the offseason. The coaching staff clearly does not trust him in that role right now. That was rather apparent Saturday night when they spent the entire second half throwing all the time and Oliver spent all but a couple of snaps on the bench.

 

[Tau837]

Brown turns 28 next season, has one year left on his deal, and has never been more than a below average NFL runner.

If Oliver can't beat him out in the long term then Oliver was never going to have real value anyway.

Brown has two years left on his deal. I do think he is a candidate to be released after the 2015 season, so perhaps that is what you meant.

 

[EBF]

Brown turns 28 next season, has one year left on his deal, and has never been more than a below average NFL runner.

If Oliver can't beat him out in the long term then Oliver was never going to have real value anyway.

I agree. Pass pro is the area Oliver needs to make significant improvements upon in the offseason. The coaching staff clearly does not trust him in that role right now. That was rather apparent Saturday night when they spent the entire second half throwing all the time and Oliver spent all but a couple of snaps on the bench.

That's actually kind of refreshing though and not dissimilar to what other players like Tre Mason, Frank Gore, Jamaal Charles, and Ray Rice went through as rookies. I'd rather him be a promising playmaker who struggles in pass pro than a great blocker who can't run or catch. One of those things seems a lot more fixable than the other. Most backs eventually learn how to block. Not all of them learn how to run or catch the ball. Oliver has shown pretty good promise as a receiver, so they definitely have an incentive to get his pass blocking sorted. Similar to Mason in St. Louis, although Mason has been better overall.

 

[Tau837]

Brown turns 28 next season, has one year left on his deal, and has never been more than a below average NFL runner.

If Oliver can't beat him out in the long term then Oliver was never going to have real value anyway.

I agree. Pass pro is the area Oliver needs to make significant improvements upon in the offseason. The coaching staff clearly does not trust him in that role right now. That was rather apparent Saturday night when they spent the entire second half throwing all the time and Oliver spent all but a couple of snaps on the bench.

That's actually kind of refreshing though and not dissimilar to what other players like Tre Mason, Frank Gore, Jamaal Charles, and Ray Rice went through as rookies. I'd rather him be a promising playmaker who struggles in pass pro than a great blocker who can't run or catch. One of those things seems a lot more fixable than the other. Most backs eventually learn how to block. Not all of them learn how to run or catch the ball. Oliver has shown pretty good promise as a receiver, so they definitely have an incentive to get his pass blocking sorted. Similar to Mason in St. Louis, although Mason has been better overall.

Woodhead is a terrible pass blocker, so it may be that the team ends up using Oliver as Woodhead's successor for passing downs, primarily running routes rather than pass blocking. I think that is actually more likely than Oliver ending up taking the Mathews/lead back role. Remember, Woodhead was healthy last year, but he only had 56 pass blocking snaps in 504 total snaps (per PFF). And he had 106 rushing attempts, so that role would keep Oliver involved in the running game in addition to the passing game. In PPR, Woodhead was RB #12 last season, which is pretty impressive. I would be surprised if Oliver ever posts a finish that high, but there is at least a chance.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

If Ryan Matthews signs elsewhere, which looks likely, will the conversation start swirling around Branden Oliver as a viable option in San Diego ?