Also, a note to everyone who is comparing Marshall's second season to Walker's second season: please stop. I'm not arguing that Walker was a better 2nd-year receiver than Marshall, I'm arguing that Walker is better at the moment (assuming full health) than Marshall. If I say that Brandon Marshall is a better WR right now than Jerry Rice, are you going to tell me that Rice had 1600 yards and 16 scores in his second year, too?
The second-year comparison is valid in my opinion in terms of projecting where Marshall could go and if he could surpass a healthy Javon Walker as the No. 1 WR on the Broncos. That Marshall has put up considerably better numbers with a worse QB in his second season than Walker did in his speaks volumes about Marshall's potential in my opinion. Like I said, I like Javon Walker but the fact is he has had only two standout seasons in six seasons. Now two of those seasons (2005 and 2007) were destroyed by injuries but this is a bottom line business and the bottom line with Walker is that for all his talent, he has not been a consistently elite NFL wide receiver. That's what the Packers expected him to be when they drafted him with a first-round pick and it's what the Broncos expected him to be when they traded for him. As we sit here today I think Marshall has a higher ceiling than Walker.
The thing is, I'm not arguing where Walker and Marshall will be 2 years from now, I'm arguing where they're at right now, and where they'll be next season. As a result, pointing out how Marshall's learning curve compares to Walker's doesn't mean a whole lot to me. Mentioning Marshall's ceiling doesn't mean a whole lot to me, either.
SSOG, do you watch the Broncos games every week? You are one of, if not the best Broncos fan posting on this board and I respect your opinion a lot. I just cannot understand how you can still believe Walker is the better guy to have. Marshall has appeared to be nothing but a beast. If I had to choose today which WR I would rather have on the Broncos, it would be Marshall. And that is strictly from a fan perspective, and it is not close.
I watch the Broncos games almost every week, although I miss some since I live in Florida. Today's was the second that I've missed this year.The thing with Marshall is that I think he's a very deceiving WR. There are very, very, very few WRs in the league who do better things with the ball in their hands (Boldin, Owens, and Smiff are the only three that spring immediately to mind, although I'm sure that I'm missing a couple). As a result, you see a lot of highlight-reel plays from Marshall, and you remember all of his good plays (because you're always watching the guy with the ball). The problem is that, as good as he is with the ball in his hands, Marshall isn't that great at all when the ball is in Cutler's hands, or when the ball is in the air. Walker's better at beating coverages, he's better at tracking the ball in the air, he's better at plucking the ball out of the air at the highest point, he can run a wider array of routes, he has much better awareness of the field, and he's more athletically gifted. The problem is that we often don't see those things, because our eyes (and the camera) focus on the ball at all times.
Those stats are nice and all but look at the company he's with Branch, Muhammad, Stallworth, McCardell, Marcus Robinson. Not exactly elite players are they? The fact that guys like that are on the list doesn't exactly prove that Walker is elite. Some players on the list are obviously great like Harrison/Owens but a lot of them are not.
The fact that you put Stokely on that list of top 30 wr's is really funny. He's not in the top 50 let alone top 30. Definitely in the top 30 #3 wr's though.
Seattle traded a 1st rounder to acquire Branch. Muhammad had 16 TDs in one year from that sample, ranked as the #1 fantasy WR, and made that list primarily on the strength of that one season. Stallworth is a good WR with a knack for scoring TDs- it's easy to forget just how good he looked at the beginning of the year last year in Philly before he got hurt. McCardell is #8 in receptions in NFL history, so he must be doing SOMETHING right. Marcus Robinson is really the only head-scratcher on either list, in my opinion. And even if one or two head-scratchers crashes the party, does that invalidate the entire list? I mean, Furrey led the NFC in receptions last year, so does that completely invalidate using receptions as a rough guide to which receivers are pretty good, too?As for Stokley... I think you're selling him short. He's another guy who does amazing things with the ball in Cutler's hands or with the ball in the air, but who is only ho-hum with the ball in his own hands. Guys like that are always underrated. On third down, though, Stokley is ALWAYS OPEN. Read some of the previous game threads and see my play-by-play reaction to Brandon Stokley sometime.
Marshall vs. Stokley reminds me a lot of Chambers vs. Welker. Not because Marshall is an overrated turd like Chambers is (as I said, I think Marshall is very good, one of the best WR2s in the league, and will continue to improve), but because Marshall's skillset leads to a lot of highlights while Stokley's does not. As a result, everyone was convinced that Chambers was this superstud who was going to set the world on fire, while Welker was a veritable afterthought, a clear fluke. Fast forward to this year, and Chambers is still far more physically gifted... while Welker is still consistently making the plays that matter.
A few criticisms: Your redzone statistics are too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions. Your point about the offense being better than last year's (which you make ad nauseum) is merely an opinion, I have not seen tangible facts on this.
Also who is this supposed #2 WR drawing all the coverage away from Marshall? Stokely? Oh yes, he strikes fear into the hearts of his opponents. All of your cherry picked stats and per play metrics can't make up for the fact that Marshall is more productive than Walker.
All your numbers don't even take into account how much better of a blocker Marshall is than Walker. Maybe that's why the running game is better this year? Because Marshall is willing to get dirty and actually block somebody!
You want some tangible facts that the offense is better this year? I'm happy to oblige. This year's offense ranks 7th in ypa passing and 3rd in ypc rushing. Last year's offense ranked 19th in ypa passing and 9th in ypc rushing, averaging almost a full yard less per pass. This year's offense is 8th in yards, last year's was 23rd. This year's offense is 10th in DVOA, last year's was 23rd. Oh yeah, there's the "eye test", too. Ask someone who's watched a lot of games from both seasons which offense is better sometime.Marshall's a stud blocker, yes. I asked last week whether it was too soon to start mentioning him with the likes of Hines Ward, so you're preaching to the choir, here. With that said, Marshall's more productive than Walker, but Marshall is also averaging more targets from a better QB in a better offense. In addition, Marshall wasn't changing teams or coming off of a season-ending surgery that historically has had a 2-year recovery timeframe. But, by all means, feel free to continue ignoring surrounding circumstances and looking strictly at receptions and yardage as if they are the gospel when it comes to how good of a player someone is. Chris Chambers must be a stud, too, because if you target him 160+ times he can crack the top 10 of fantasy WRs.
SSOG was happy to see that slant thrown to Mark Jackson rather than Vance Johnson. Johnson was a much better athlete, and had much more of an upside. But on that one play, I'm sure he would have chosen Jackson over Johnson. I think that's where he's going with the Stokely argument.
I have to admit, I was a pretty casual football fan until the Shanahan era. I didn't follow details like that, I just wanted the big-name guys on my team to score lots of TDs and win by a million points. I'm ashamed to admit that I was basically no different than those guys you hear calling in to sports talk radio all the time. Hey, we all have to start somewhere, right?Anyway, the point is that I don't really know the specifics of the situation you mention, but I do think that's about what I'm saying. Marshall might be a beast with the ball in his hands, but Stokley is far more reliable. Stokley's going to be more likely to get open, going to be more likely to catch the ball when it's in the air, and going to be more likely to maintain awareness and convert the down after getting the ball. More good things happen when Denver throws to Stokley on 3rd down than when Denver throws to Marshall. On 1st or 2nd down I prefer passes to Marshall, because he's more likely to do something he shouldn't be able to do and turn a good play into a great play... but when it really matters, when it's convert or go home, Stokley's the guy.
To make another Welker comparison... I don't think it'd be blasphemous if a New England homer said that they'd rather see Brady throwing to Welker than Moss when it's 3rd-and-6.
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ercentage of touchdown conversions to targets in the red zone (WRs with 25+ targets 2004-06)Player Targets TD PercentageLarry Fitzgerald 39 15 0.384615385Marcus Robinson 30 11 0.366666667Javon Walker 28 10 0.357142857Terrell Owens 48 17 0.354166667Marvin Harrison 69 24 0.347826087Deion Branch 26 9 0.346153846Joey Galloway 36 12 0.333333333Roy Williams 40 13 0.325Darrell Jackson 38 12 0.315789474Numbers from between the 6 yard line and the 20 yard linePlayer Year Targets Tds PercentageLarry Fitzgerald 2004--2006 28 9 0.321428571Javon Walker 2004--2006 25 8 0.32Deion Branch 2004--2006 25 8 0.32Terrell Owens 2004--2006 35 11 0.314285714Hines Ward 2004--2006 47 14 0.29787234Muhsin Muhammad 2004--2006 48 14 0.291666667Roy Williams 2004--2006 32 9 0.28125Keenan McCardell 2004--2006 25 7 0.28Marvin Harrison 2004--2006 50 13 0.26Donte Stallworth 2004--2006 27 7 0.259259259Brandon Marshall, for what it's worth, has 19 targets in the red zone for 4 TDs (21%). Between the goal and the 5, he's got 1 TD on 6 targets, and between the 6 and the 20, he has 3 TDs on 13 targets. Both rates are significantly behind Walkers'. If you like DVOA, Walker last year beats Marshall this year pretty handily there, too, despite playing in a worse offense with worse QB play and no one to draw coverage. So, as it turns out, if you look at the stats in any but the most superficial manner, there is a pretty strong support for the sentiment that Walker last year was significantly ahead of Marshall this year. Superficial stats don't support that because of the difference in targets (Marshall's already surpassed Walker's target total from last season), but per-play stats clearly show the difference.As for the idea that Stokley is more dependable than Marshall... again, it's all there in the stats. Stokley has a better catch%, a better DVOA, and a significantly better conversion rate on 3rd downs. Marshall's 39 targets on 3rd or 4th down have resulted in 16 first downs (41%), while Stokley's 30 targets have resulted in 18 first downs (60%). In fact, there isn't a single receiver in the league with as many targets on 3rd down as Stokley and a higher conversion rate.Feel free to ignore all of this, though. Apparently facts make for irrational arguments.
