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The 22nd ranked running offense would tend to be the reasoning behind this...Also, how many plays did they have as a team this year?Colts - 1109 (3rd)Redskins - 994 (23rd)Seahawks - 974 (29th)That is over 100 plays more for the Colts with no running game...
Are you saying YPA is unimportant? I am not saying it means everything, but it is a good measuring stick of a quarterback's overall effectiveness, and to just dismiss it, because it makes your guy look bad, merely exposes your bias.
It's true that the Colts did not have much of a running game, and the Redskins did, but we cannot forget that RG3 was a huge reason WHY the Redskins running game was so dominant. He didn't benefit as a result of a great running game; he was one of the main reasons why their running game was so great (he accounted for 30% of their rushing yards, vs Luck accounting for 15% of the Colts rushing yards).
Tom Brady
Correct! YPA beast his first year!
Why do you keep trying to sell Luck over Griffin when you have already stated you would give the nod to Griffin?
Because I think it is close. And certainly much closer than others on here are stating.
Because the defense does not have to account for Rodgers in the running game the way they do for Griffin?YPA is really a measure of how efficient a QB is. It goes up with higher completion percentage and longer completions. Your comparison to Tom Brady as a rookie is an interesting one because Brady had a comparable completion % to RGIII (63.9% vs. 65.6%). That means that Griffin excelled at completing a lot of mid-range passes while Brady completed a lot of shorter passes, which accounts for the difference in YPA. I marvel at Griffin's YPA because rookie QB's are usually inefficient because of newness to the league, still developing accuracy, etc.
It's been done a few times by rookie QBs in recent seasons. Ben Roethlisberger - 295 attempts (8.89 YPA)Robert Griffin - 393 attempts (8.14 YPA)Matt Ryan - 434 attempts (7.93 YPA)Cam Newton - 517 attempts (7.84 YPA)Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick also did it as first year starters, though neither was a rookie. This is good company for RGIII to be in. Roethlisberger and Ryan have developed into top 10 NFL QBs. Newton looks like a perennial star. It's pretty hard for a bad QB to fluke his way to a high YPA. You can throw for a lot of yards and TDs on volume alone (see: Fitzpatrick, Stafford, Cutler). However, you can't really fake your way to a great YPA season. Having said that, one thing you'll notice about the above list is that the YPA drops as the number of pass attempts increases. I don't think it's pure coincidence. I think it makes sense that a generic QB who passes infrequently will be more effective than an identical QB who passes frequently. To use an analogy, it's kind of like a baseball pitcher who sneaks in a curveball occasionally versus a baseball pitcher who throws nothing but curveballs. When the hitter is expecting a curveball, he can prepare for it. When he's not expecting a curveball, he's more likely to be caught off guard. Limiting the curveball to favorable situations is going to result in the pitch being more effective than if you just threw it all the time. That doesn't fully excuse guys like Luck and Stafford for their relatively poor efficiency numbers, but it's certainly a factor. Put either player in a more conservative offense with a better run game and defense, and I'm certain that their YPA would climb. That's why I think the ROY discussion between Luck and Wilson/Griffin is a lot cloudier than you'd first think just looking at the efficiency stats.'dhockster said:
It's important to not let Griffin and Wilson's historic efficiency skew the perspective on Luck. Luck's 7.0 YPA is not poor by any means (he finished 16th out of 32 qualifying QBs in YPA this year). Bradford and Stafford (two highly regarded prospects) were asked to throw the ball a ton in their rookie season (36.8 times per game for Bradford and 37.7 times per game for Stafford) and could each only manage 6.0 YPA.
First, I would vote Griffin for ROTY for reasons stated earlier (performance and what he meant to the team's success), but I have to say I think it's wrong to characterize Luck's 600+ attempts as a negative. It's a function of the lack of talent around him that required him to shoulder a larger portion of his team's offensive. If the line and RBs were better they could have run more, if the WRs not named Wayne were better they would have been more effective at moving and scoring and likely needed fewer attempts. Yes his efficiency wasn't as good as RGIII or Wilson, but there are other factors than just a presumption that he isn't accurate or doesn't make good target decisions. I think asking a rookie to make 600+ attempts and having that lead you to 11 wins and the playoffs is remarkable and should be lauded as an amazing feat that of course can be improved upon.'Ghost Rider said:
Yea, I think Luck is a pretty special player and I still think it's very possible that he'll have the best career of this lot when the dust settles. I also think he'd have a real chance for at least sharing ROY honors if it were decided by coaches and personnel people.
Per no FBGs
Good point. Griffin also never threw a game winning interception either. Advantage Wilson.
Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
In some ways it's a shame that we had as many quality QBs as we did this season, since we invariably end up tearing each of them down to build up the others while losing perspective on just how good they are compared to so many of the rookie QBs who came before them. In any other year, Ryan Tannehill would receive substantial praise for his play with a pedestrian supporting cast, and yet he is basically an afterthought in the rookie QB discussion this season.
You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
If you need to cherry-pick a stat like "# of team wins vs. top ten defenses (in points allowed)" in order to give your guy an edge, that should tell you a lot about the quality of your argument.Same goes for dividing the season into portions. I may be wrong about this, but last time I checked it was rookie of the year, not "rookie of the portion of the year starting when Russell Wilson led his team to a dramatic overtime win vs Chicago" award. Did they change it? If so, I definitely support Wilson for the Rot5GamesStartingDecember2 award. He's been awesome.Wilson 1RGIII 0
That's real?! Awesomest!!!Off topic avatar based comment: just finished the Todd Margaret series and probably rank it up near TObias and AD for flat out humor.If you need to cherry-pick a stat like "# of team wins vs. top ten defenses (in points allowed)" in order to give your guy an edge, that should tell you a lot about the quality of your argument.Same goes for dividing the season into portions. I may be wrong about this, but last time I checked it was rookie of the year, not "rookie of the portion of the year starting when Russell Wilson led his team to a dramatic overtime win vs Chicago" award. Did they change it? If so, I definitely support Wilson for the Rot5GamesStartingDecember2 award. He's been awesome.Wilson 1RGIII 0
Wilson 1RGIII 1If you need to cherry-pick a stat like "# of team wins vs. top ten defenses (in points allowed)" in order to give your guy an edge, that should tell you a lot about the quality of your argument.Same goes for dividing the season into portions. I may be wrong about this, but last time I checked it was rookie of the year, not "rookie of the portion of the year starting when Russell Wilson led his team to a dramatic overtime win vs Chicago" award. Did they change it? If so, I definitely support Wilson for the Rot5GamesStartingDecember2 award. He's been awesome.Wilson 1RGIII 0
Hey, I am not uptight, I am just looking out for you and how you look on the board. If you want to keep putting Cousins numbers up there goright ahead. Just trying to be helpful.As for YPA, I agree that it is a metric. Just like turnovers. Just like rushing yards.When you look at all those metrics, I see RGIII as the most efficient QB (by a slim marging over Wilson), the most productive runner (Again over Wilson), who protected the ball the best (again over Wilson). Wilson had a tougher schedule. I give the award to RGIII (just like you) by a small margin over Wilson. Luck would be third.You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
Griffin put the ball on the turf 12 times, Wilson six times...Hey, I am not uptight, I am just looking out for you and how you look on the board. If you want to keep putting Cousins numbers up there goright ahead. Just trying to be helpful.As for YPA, I agree that it is a metric. Just like turnovers. Just like rushing yards.When you look at all those metrics, I see RGIII as the most efficient QB (by a slim marging over Wilson), the most productive runner (Again over Wilson), who protected the ball the best (again over Wilson). Wilson had a tougher schedule. I give the award to RGIII (just like you) by a small margin over Wilson. Luck would be third.You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
RG3 had five straight games with a passer rating of 100+. Is that not consistent? Also, Luck's consistency was more or less being consistently good/very good, while RG3 was often great.
Griffin lost 2, Wilson lost 3. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good...Griffin put the ball on the turf 12 times, Wilson six times...Hey, I am not uptight, I am just looking out for you and how you look on the board. If you want to keep putting Cousins numbers up there goright ahead. Just trying to be helpful.As for YPA, I agree that it is a metric. Just like turnovers. Just like rushing yards.When you look at all those metrics, I see RGIII as the most efficient QB (by a slim marging over Wilson), the most productive runner (Again over Wilson), who protected the ball the best (again over Wilson). Wilson had a tougher schedule. I give the award to RGIII (just like you) by a small margin over Wilson. Luck would be third.You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
Neither one of these guys need luck to win, only Luck would. But considering only fumbles lost when you are looking at the stats is rather arbitrary.Griffin lost 2, Wilson lost 3. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good...Griffin put the ball on the turf 12 times, Wilson six times...Hey, I am not uptight, I am just looking out for you and how you look on the board. If you want to keep putting Cousins numbers up there goright ahead. Just trying to be helpful.As for YPA, I agree that it is a metric. Just like turnovers. Just like rushing yards.When you look at all those metrics, I see RGIII as the most efficient QB (by a slim marging over Wilson), the most productive runner (Again over Wilson), who protected the ball the best (again over Wilson). Wilson had a tougher schedule. I give the award to RGIII (just like you) by a small margin over Wilson. Luck would be third.You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
Sure, but that luck is also likely to switch next year. Not that it matters for ROY race, but only losing 1 out of every 6 fumbles is a crazy good rate that won't sustain IMO.Griffin lost 2, Wilson lost 3. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good...Griffin put the ball on the turf 12 times, Wilson six times...Hey, I am not uptight, I am just looking out for you and how you look on the board. If you want to keep putting Cousins numbers up there goright ahead. Just trying to be helpful.As for YPA, I agree that it is a metric. Just like turnovers. Just like rushing yards.When you look at all those metrics, I see RGIII as the most efficient QB (by a slim marging over Wilson), the most productive runner (Again over Wilson), who protected the ball the best (again over Wilson). Wilson had a tougher schedule. I give the award to RGIII (just like you) by a small margin over Wilson. Luck would be third.You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
I agree totally. If RGIII continues to put the ball on the ground like he did this year he will lose more of them. But since he only lost 2 this year, he gets credit for that this year. Did someone say earlier in this thread that someone tracks dropped interceptions? I would be curious as to how Luck, Griffin, and Wilson ranked in that category.Sure, but that luck is also likely to switch next year. Not that it matters for ROY race, but only losing 1 out of every 6 fumbles is a crazy good rate that won't sustain IMO.Griffin lost 2, Wilson lost 3. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good...Griffin put the ball on the turf 12 times, Wilson six times...Hey, I am not uptight, I am just looking out for you and how you look on the board. If you want to keep putting Cousins numbers up there goright ahead. Just trying to be helpful.As for YPA, I agree that it is a metric. Just like turnovers. Just like rushing yards.When you look at all those metrics, I see RGIII as the most efficient QB (by a slim marging over Wilson), the most productive runner (Again over Wilson), who protected the ball the best (again over Wilson). Wilson had a tougher schedule. I give the award to RGIII (just like you) by a small margin over Wilson. Luck would be third.You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
Yup. And had four times as many TDs as incompletions.'pizzatyme said:
Careful, there, Tex. Don't want to throw out your back taking such big swings at such a sad little straw man.
I'll ignore your blatantly gerrymandered cutoff (7.1 YPA screams of a Multiple Endpoints violation) and play along. Luck has 5 games above 7.1 YPA and 11 (ELEVEN!) below. If five games below 7.1 indicated up and down play, what does eleven such games indicate? Down and down play?You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:
Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie.
Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes.
As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.
I'm also curious if anyone tracks interceptions that are directly a receiver's fault. I'm not trying to say that Wilson had more or anything. I'd imagine over a long enough period of time that everyone evens out. But it would be interesting to see if anyone differentiates passes that were picked off despite hitting a receiver smack in the hands.I agree totally. If RGIII continues to put the ball on the ground like he did this year he will lose more of them. But since he only lost 2 this year, he gets credit for that this year. Did someone say earlier in this thread that someone tracks dropped interceptions? I would be curious as to how Luck, Griffin, and Wilson ranked in that category.Sure, but that luck is also likely to switch next year. Not that it matters for ROY race, but only losing 1 out of every 6 fumbles is a crazy good rate that won't sustain IMO.Griffin lost 2, Wilson lost 3. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good...Griffin put the ball on the turf 12 times, Wilson six times...Hey, I am not uptight, I am just looking out for you and how you look on the board. If you want to keep putting Cousins numbers up there goright ahead. Just trying to be helpful.As for YPA, I agree that it is a metric. Just like turnovers. Just like rushing yards.When you look at all those metrics, I see RGIII as the most efficient QB (by a slim marging over Wilson), the most productive runner (Again over Wilson), who protected the ball the best (again over Wilson). Wilson had a tougher schedule. I give the award to RGIII (just like you) by a small margin over Wilson. Luck would be third.You seem to be a little uptight. Griffin padded his YPA against the Saints, Eagles, and Cowboys. Not stellar defenses IMO. He had 8 games with a YPA above 7.1 and 5 games well below 7.1. Pretty up and down. Indicative of a talented rookie. Luck was much more consistent but lower overall due to more passes. As I've said before, YPA is a metric. One of many.Please stop with this. You're making yourself look foolish. Doing something in one start (let alone one start against the Browns) is not the same as doing it over 15 or 16 games.This deserves its own post:Kirk Cousins 9.7 YPA this year! ROY?
Bob gets his chance Sunday.
Gee, how did Shanny manage a running game all those previous years with out RG3 to carry his teams rushing success? Oh, wait....
1st in rushing, 2nd in ypc this year. 25th and 22nd last year. 30th and 16th the year before. Washington DIDN'T manage a running game without Griffin to carry his team's rushing success.
Wilson has had 100+ rating in 7 of his last 8, Griffin only 5...
I've been wondering the same thing, I'd really like to see the results for this.
