Brett Favre: 2009 fantasy value (1 Viewer)

[millertyme1]

Where would you put him for 2009? I may be in the minority here, but I like his weapons better in MN (and dome) than NYJ. Also going to an offense he's familiar with, with an elite RB.

We talking Top 10? Top 15?

Discuss.

http://thevikingage.com/2009/05/06/video-d...re-will-return/

 

[PewterFan]

We talking Top 10? Top 15?

Top 34

 

[NorrisB]

Id say top 15 solid #2 QB

 

[T Bell]

Early on, a fair QB1.

Later on, a poor QB2.

If you're going to have him going into the season, I'd trade him around week 6-8, when his value is highest.

 

[Avery]

Early on, a fair QB1.Later on, a poor QB2.If you're going to have him going into the season, I'd trade him around week 6-8, when his value is highest.

Why?Are you theorizing he'll wear down physically or perhaps mentally?

 

[SproutDaddy]

Undraftable.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Early on, a fair QB1.Later on, a poor QB2.If you're going to have him going into the season, I'd trade him around week 6-8, when his value is highest.

Why?Are you theorizing he'll wear down physically or perhaps mentally?

I think he still thinks Favre will be playing a lot of games in cold weather. Obviously Favre hasn't played as well in cold weather the last couple of years. The bigger questions with Favre are whether the bicep will heal, and with a good running game and decent defense will he manage the game instead throwing it away trying to force the issue?

 

[duaneok66]

Early on, a fair QB1.

Later on, a poor QB2.

If you're going to have him going into the season, I'd trade him around week 6-8, when his value is highest.

I guess you play in 30 team leagues . . .

 

[duaneok66]

Undraftable.

this guy gets it . . .

 

[FUBAR]

Does your league give negative points for interceptions? I'd like him to start against me.

 

[SuperJohn96]

MIN

----

@CLE

@DET

SFO

GBP

@STL

BAL

@PIT

@GBP

BYE

DET

SEA

CHI

@ARI

CIN

@CAR

@CHI

NYG

 

[phillyphan07]

Does your league give negative points for interceptions? I'd like him to start against me.

My league does.It also gives positive points for TDs and yardage. So even if he's got a 1-1 TD:Int ratio, he's still a legit QB2.

 

[Gopher State]

Id say top 15 solid #2 QB

very here. I would say between 11 and 15 very solid #2 borderline #1

 

[Jason Wood]

Assuming he comes back AND assuming his biceps tear is 'healed', he would be a stone cold lock for top 15 at worst, and could easily end the year as a fringe top 10 passer. But to be clear, those are two big IFs IMHO. I really am curious how a guy can have a torn biceps and pass up surgery [because he was retiring] and then have it magically be fine. But again, I'm going to assume the Vikings wouldn't install him under center without vetting his biceps as being OK.

As others have said, there is a huge difference between Favre in New York and Favre in Minnesota. This is the exact same offense he ran in the last few years in Green Bay. Darrell Bevell was on the Packers staff and Favre knows this playbook inside and out already. That goes a long way for a veteran trying to play catch up.

Here are Favre's year end fantasy rankings [FBG scoring]:

1992 -- 7

1993 -- 7

1994 -- 2

1995 -- 1

1996 -- 1

1997 -- 1

1998 -- 3

1999 -- 6

2000 -- 10

2001 -- 4

2002 -- 11

2003 -- 7

2004 -- 5

2005 -- 14

2006 -- 11

2007 -- 8

2008 -- 14

A couple of things jump out. Even last year he was a top 15 QB [but likely drafted higher than that in your league]. BUT, he's finished outside the top 10 in three of his last four seasons.

And I think that really paints the picture here. Fringe QB1 if healthy, but not someone that's going to win you a league championship.

 

[-baller]

I think he still thinks Favre will be playing a lot of games in cold weather. Obviously Favre hasn't played as well in cold weather the last couple of years.

how many cold weather games does he have in '09?

 

[Mikey16x]

I may be the real minority here, but I don't see Favre racking up anymore fantasy points then I will this season.

 

[Tanner9919]

can we get a rundown of stats for Favre playing indoors vs. outdoors, esp his winning percentage in Minnesota?

If I'm not mistaken, he's 20-23 lifetime in games played indoors..

he is 6-10 lifetime vs. Vikings @ Minnesota. 7-9 lifetime @ Lions.

just saying, I don't think he is as good playing inside a dome, for whatever reason. SB aside , of course..

 

[RandyDB]

can we get a rundown of stats for Favre playing indoors vs. outdoors, esp his winning percentage in Minnesota?If I'm not mistaken, he's 20-23 lifetime in games played indoors..he is 6-10 lifetime vs. Vikings @ Minnesota. 7-9 lifetime @ Lions.just saying, I don't think he is as good playing inside a dome, for whatever reason. SB aside , of course.. :(

We should take into account that theses stats are a visiting QB in a dome, where the whole visiting offense is usually at a disadvantage from aa noise standpoint.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I think he still thinks Favre will be playing a lot of games in cold weather. Obviously Favre hasn't played as well in cold weather the last couple of years.

how many cold weather games does he have in '09?

As far as I can see MIN only has @CHI after Xmas for cold weather games.

 

[bcr8f]

I think he still thinks Favre will be playing a lot of games in cold weather. Obviously Favre hasn't played as well in cold weather the last couple of years.

how many cold weather games does he have in '09?

As far as I can see MIN only has @CHI after Xmas for cold weather games.

He hasn't played well in very cold weather but the playoff game against Seattle wasn't warm. He's OK unless it gets real cold. In the Championship game in Green Bay this year he will be in trouble.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Early on, a fair QB1.Later on, a poor QB2.If you're going to have him going into the season, I'd trade him around week 6-8, when his value is highest.

Why?Are you theorizing he'll wear down physically or perhaps mentally?

I think he still thinks Favre will be playing a lot of games in cold weather. Obviously Favre hasn't played as well in cold weather the last couple of years. The bigger questions with Favre are whether the bicep will heal, and with a good running game and decent defense will he manage the game instead throwing it away trying to force the issue?

Last five gamesARICIN@CAR@CHINYG Tough games but only one potentially cold weather game, ince Minny plays in a Dome.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Assuming he comes back AND assuming his biceps tear is 'healed',

I'd have to think these two things are not mutually exclusive. Minnesota is going to look into that, before he is signed.

 

[Jason Wood]

Assuming he comes back AND assuming his biceps tear is 'healed',

I'd have to think these two things are not mutually exclusive. Minnesota is going to look into that, before he is signed.

You would certainly think so Doc, I agree. But this is one of those injuries he can technically 'play through' as he did last year. So the tear could still be there, but Brett could say it feels great. I don't THINK that would happen, but stranger things have.

 

[sho nuff]

can we get a rundown of stats for Favre playing indoors vs. outdoors, esp his winning percentage in Minnesota?If I'm not mistaken, he's 20-23 lifetime in games played indoors..he is 6-10 lifetime vs. Vikings @ Minnesota. 7-9 lifetime @ Lions.just saying, I don't think he is as good playing inside a dome, for whatever reason. SB aside , of course..

We should take into account that theses stats are a visiting QB in a dome, where the whole visiting offense is usually at a disadvantage from aa noise standpoint.

Plus visiting a division foe which is a bit different.Look at some of the other records people may have against their divisional opponents and Id say its similar to the road record of most QBs in the division.

 

[T Man]

Even if he were healthy, he is playing on a team that needs to be run oriented. If we assumed the health of all QBs (including Favre), for fantasy purposes I would have him in the third tier of QBs (or a #2 in a 10 team league). Assuming health, I think he would be higher then that for real life purposes (able to lead a team, etc).

In no particular order, the tiers I have for fantasy at this point are

Drew Brees, NO

Peyton Manning, IND

Tom Brady, NE

Aaron Rodgers, GB

Kurt Warner, ARI

Philip Rivers, SD

Tony Romo, DAL

Matt Schaub, HOU

Carson Palmer, CIN

Donovan McNabb, PHI

Jay Cutler, CHI

Matt Ryan, ATL

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

Eli Manning, NYG

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

Brett Favre, MIN

Matt Cassel, KC

Jake Delhomme, CAR

David Garrard, JAX

Trent Edwards, BUF

Kyle Orton, DEN

Chad Pennington, MIA

Marc Bulger, STL

Jason Campbell, WAS

Kerry Collins, TEN

Shaun Hill, SF

Joe Flacco, BAL

JaMarcus Russell, OAK

Brady Quinn, CLE

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Assuming he comes back AND assuming his biceps tear is 'healed',

I'd have to think these two things are not mutually exclusive. Minnesota is going to look into that, before he is signed.

You would certainly think so Doc, I agree. But this is one of those injuries he can technically 'play through' as he did last year. So the tear could still be there, but Brett could say it feels great. I don't THINK that would happen, but stranger things have.

Seems like its now a non-issue:

Judd Zulgad and Chip Scoggins, of the Star Tribune, reports free-agent QB Brett Favre (arm) is willing to undergo a minor procedure in which surgeons would complete the cutting of the tendon, according to NFL sources. The recovery period would be quick and he would be ready to go long before training camp.

 

[Casting Couch]

Even if he were healthy, he is playing on a team that needs to be run oriented. If we assumed the health of all QBs (including Favre), for fantasy purposes I would have him in the third tier of QBs (or a #2 in a 10 team league). Assuming health, I think he would be higher then that for real life purposes (able to lead a team, etc).

In no particular order, the tiers I have for fantasy at this point are

Drew Brees, NO

Peyton Manning, IND

Tom Brady, NE

Aaron Rodgers, GB

Kurt Warner, ARI

Philip Rivers, SD

Tony Romo, DAL

Matt Schaub, HOU

Carson Palmer, CIN

Donovan McNabb, PHI

Jay Cutler, CHI

Matt Ryan, ATL

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

Eli Manning, NYG

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

Brett Favre, MIN

Matt Cassel, KC

Jake Delhomme, CAR

David Garrard, JAX

Trent Edwards, BUF

Kyle Orton, DEN

Chad Pennington, MIA

Marc Bulger, STL

Jason Campbell, WAS

Kerry Collins, TEN

Shaun Hill, SF

Joe Flacco, BAL

JaMarcus Russell, OAK

Brady Quinn, CLE

I'll put Cassel, Edwards and Flacco in front of him as well.19th QB

 

[IHEARTFF]

roughly # 20 QB, a spot starting #2 for a 12-team league