Broncos RB. (1 Viewer)

[hines]

I find it kind of crazy that people are saying drop Moreno, drop Hillman, Ball will have no value and then somehow are saying pick up CJ Anderson. that is laughable. he's an undrafted rookie who we haven't really seen who is just now starting to cut and is still having pain when cutting. he's so far behind the other 3 in terms of who you want on your roster, it doesn't make sense.

all 3 are probably worth slots on your roster for now in large leagues but in smaller ones Ball is probably easily droppable and Hillman is close (unless it's a PPR).

 

[monk]

You need to do more homework before you make that statement about Moreno.

SSOG is a Denver fan and has probably seen more of Moreno's plays than most of the board. That said, Moreno is a polarizing player for a lot of Denver fans based on his NFL draft status and who drafted him. But I'd bet SSOG has seen more of Moreno's snaps than most of the posters in this thread. Not saying his judgment is clouded vs. Moreno, but I think he's done his homework.

I've been around this board long enough to know that it doesn't matter how many snaps SSOG sees once he has formulated an oppinion.

He will twist the facts and play with statistics till the cows come home rather then admit he was wrong.

The guy unconditionally hates on Moreno but has an everlasting love for Ron Dayne?

 

[hxperson]

One game doesn't make a trend. Lots of overreaction going on in this thread, imo. It is too early to read into the splits considering that Ball is a rookie who is raw in pass coverage and Hillman had an up and down preseason. Also, they had so much success passing that there was no need to commit to a steady running game.

That being said, I'm leaning towards the camp of no one being worth owning in this situation given Fox's history with RB's.

 

[duaneok66]

I usually agree with the above comment (monk - #752), but Adam did admit he was wrong earlier. His greatest strength (backing up opinions with a mountain of facts) is usually his greatest weakness (building the mountain even higher) when he is wrong. But he stepped up and admitted it earlier in this thread - let's leave it at that and move on.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

When and why would that ever happen.

They have arguably the greatest QB that has ever played and at least 4 or 5 solid receiving options

A game-plan can be a lot more run-heavy than it was on Thursday without necessarily being run-heavy. Denver had a 3:1 pass:run ratio prior to the last couple of drives. They're not sustaining that over a full season.

 

[Adam Harstad]

You need to do more homework before you make that statement about Moreno. I've came to the conclusion that most of you guys are just conditioned to believe Knowshon is awful. Truth is, when he isn't out with nagging injuries and gets work he has been a really nice NFL/FF performer. I'm sure I posted the numbers in this thread, but he has not been avg for FF when he's recieved 15+ touches in a game. He actually produces top-12 numbers when he gets 15+ touches a game. I don't understand what caused the blind spot. He was a high performer just late last year!We all know things can get muddy here pretty quickly. I still wouldn't avoid this RB situation. NYG-OAK-PHI-DAL-JAC-IND-WAS before Den BYE Week-9 and divisional matchups with San Diego and Kansas City. I will take Mendoza in this offense with that schedule over anyone you recommend near his ADP. I don't even care if it takes 4-6 weeks for him to lose the main-carry job if he helps me get through 25-50% of my schedule. If someone wants to overpay after Mathew Berry says he likes him next week then he is a pretty good flip. He is also a strong hold. His value can only increase with a nice game(or 4-5).

Chalk one up to being smooth talked by coaches instead of your own logic.

Who's talking about fantasy production? When I say Moreno is the Mendoza Line of NFL RBs, I'm talking 100% about actual NFL production. I think you could give every one of Knowshon Moreno's carries to, say, Lance Ball and you'd get the exact same result. He's a replacement-level runner who only has a job because of his work as a receiver and a blocker.

This isn't to say that can't be valuable. Joe Addai had a pair of top-12 fantasy seasons, if I recall correctly (actually, I just looked it up, and he had three of them). But scoring a bunch of fantasy points doesn't mean you're a great runner. Joseph Addai outscored Steven Jackson in both 2007 and 2009. There's a lot to be said for having a good situation, and if Knowshon Moreno can keep getting 50+% of the RB snaps in Denver, he's got a fantastic situation and will be a strong RB2 all season long. That doesn't mean he's anything other than a mediocre runner.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

Adam, I have to disagree a bit with your prognosis.

Ball's first two carries came at 9:06 in the 3rd quarter at the Baltimore 15 with the score 28-17. He did not touch the ball again until the 4th quarter at 10:28, where they ran 3 runs and punted, and then again at 5:29 and 2:19. Ball became involved in the game when Denver had a comfortable lead and wanted to burn the clock.

Moreno on the other hand was the main guy in quarters 1-3 for the most part with Hillman spelling him. Hillman was used in the 1st quarter, 3rd quarter, and 4th quarter. I am not reading anything into this mess based on Montee's usage when the game was well in hand. In my opinion, Ball is the run out the clock guy, but I certainly wouldn't say he was the run-heavy guy. That was the nature of his usage.

Right now, there is no value in the DEN running game unless one person comes out of this mess.

I said earlier that any back that gets 40% of the work will be a decent flex play, and any back that gets 50% of the work is a fantasy RB2, and I stand by that whether it's Moreno, Ball, or Hillman. Prior to week 1, I didn't think there was any chance it would be Moreno. Clearly I was wrong. Either way, as long as someone is getting a large enough share of the pie, they'll produce. Denver's not going to pass the ball 75% of the time all season long. Denver's not going to throw for 100 TDs and rush for 0 this year.

Anyway, we can discuss why Denver was more run-heavy with Ball on the field- whether they meant all along for him to be the garbage-time back, or whether they put him in specifically because the game plan called for more running- but it's pretty clear that Denver's offense was a lot more likely to run the ball when Ball was on the field than it was when Moreno was on the field. Which I'd say is a clear case of playing to each player's strengths, because Ball is a better pure runner than Moreno, whereas Moreno is better in the passing game.

 

[ShaHBucks]

You need to do more homework before you make that statement about Moreno. I've came to the conclusion that most of you guys are just conditioned to believe Knowshon is awful. Truth is, when he isn't out with nagging injuries and gets work he has been a really nice NFL/FF performer. I'm sure I posted the numbers in this thread, but he has not been avg for FF when he's recieved 15+ touches in a game. He actually produces top-12 numbers when he gets 15+ touches a game. I don't understand what caused the blind spot. He was a high performer just late last year!

We all know things can get muddy here pretty quickly. I still wouldn't avoid this RB situation. NYG-OAK-PHI-DAL-JAC-IND-WAS before Den BYE Week-9 and divisional matchups with San Diego and Kansas City. I will take Mendoza in this offense with that schedule over anyone you recommend near his ADP. I don't even care if it takes 4-6 weeks for him to lose the main-carry job if he helps me get through 25-50% of my schedule. If someone wants to overpay after Mathew Berry says he likes him next week then he is a pretty good flip. He is also a strong hold. His value can only increase with a nice game(or 4-5).

Chalk one up to being smooth talked by coaches instead of your own logic.

Who's talking about fantasy production? When I say Moreno is the Mendoza Line of NFL RBs, I'm talking 100% about actual NFL production. I think you could give every one of Knowshon Moreno's carries to, say, Lance Ball and you'd get the exact same result. He's a replacement-level runner who only has a job because of his work as a receiver and a blocker.

This isn't to say that can't be valuable. Joe Addai had a pair of top-12 fantasy seasons, if I recall correctly (actually, I just looked it up, and he had three of them). But scoring a bunch of fantasy points doesn't mean you're a great runner. Joseph Addai outscored Steven Jackson in both 2007 and 2009. There's a lot to be said for having a good situation, and if Knowshon Moreno can keep getting 50+% of the RB snaps in Denver, he's got a fantastic situation and will be a strong RB2 all season long. That doesn't mean he's anything other than a mediocre runner.

It's pointless. I'll just say we disagree. He has enough skils that I won't ever throw him under the rug when assessing the broncos backfield or compare him to Lance Ball. You leave him for dead while I'll keep checking his pulse. That's all I'm here for.

 

[Buffaloes]

I think you could give every one of Knowshon Moreno's carries to, say, Lance Ball and you'd get the exact same result

If that were the case Lance would still be on the team considering how much cheaper he would have been as well as the fact he can play special teams and is just fine in the pass blocking dept.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

So, if we were redrafting today, where would you put Moreno, Ball, Hillman? PPR & non-PPR?

 

[Adam Harstad]

You need to do more homework before you make that statement about Moreno.

SSOG is a Denver fan and has probably seen more of Moreno's plays than most of the board. That said, Moreno is a polarizing player for a lot of Denver fans based on his NFL draft status and who drafted him. But I'd bet SSOG has seen more of Moreno's snaps than most of the posters in this thread. Not saying his judgment is clouded vs. Moreno, but I think he's done his homework.

I've been around this board long enough to know that it doesn't matter how many snaps SSOG sees once he has formulated an oppinion.

He will twist the facts and play with statistics till the cows come home rather then admit he was wrong.

The guy unconditionally hates on Moreno but has an everlasting love for Ron Dayne?

I don't hate Moreno. I drafted him in plenty of leagues this year- more than any other Denver RB, in fact. Sometimes, he was the only Denver RB I took in the entire draft- and I can prove it! I haven't always hated Moreno, either. I traded up to #1 to draft him in my very first dynasty league. I spent something like 10 pages arguing with LHUCKS before Moreno's rookie year because Hucks said he was being overdrafted. I spent another 10 pages arguing with him after the season because Hucks was saying Moreno had been terrible.

I also hardly have an everlasting love for Ron Dayne. In 2006, I thought he was going to win the starting RB job. I was wrong about that, and have admitted it plenty of times since, such as in this post from the very next offseason. I really screwed the pooch on that one. I thought a guy would be the starter, and instead he was among the final roster cuts. It's pretty embarrassing. Stay in the prediction business long enough and you're going to wind up with some pretty embarrassing calls on your record. You've already mentioned Ron Dayne, but there's also all my love for Lee Evans and Jonathan Stewart. When I was watching the Packers/Saints game to open 2011, I kept tweeting the whole time about how I didn't see why everyone else was so high on this Jimmy Graham kid. I sent out about a dozen tweets about it. I said he didn't look fluid or creative. I said his upside was Owen Daniels. In week 1 of 2011. That was a pretty spectacular failure. It sucked. It happens.

I don't have personal grudges against players. I don't have a vested interest in who succeeds and who fails. I try my best to get things right, and sometimes I fail pretty spectacularly, but it's not because I've got a bone to pick or an axe to grind. When I get things wrong, I'm less concerned with doubling down on my wrong projections than I am with figuring out why I was wrong, fixing it, and trying my best to be right going forward.

That's what I'm doing here. I was wrong in week 1. That sucked. It's in the past now, and there's nothing I can do to change it. Instead, I'm trying my best to figure out what's going on here so that starting in week 2, I can be right.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think you could give every one of Knowshon Moreno's carries to, say, Lance Ball and you'd get the exact same result

If that were the case Lance would still be on the team considering how much cheaper he would have been as well as the fact he can play special teams and is just fine in the pass blocking dept.

Ball's a worse blocker and receiver, and he wasn't that much cheaper. Moreno is making $1.7m this year, while Ball was schedule for $1.3m. None of Ball's salary was guaranteed, so I think cutting Lance actually saved more money against the cap than cutting Moreno would have.

 

[Adam Harstad]

So, if we were redrafting today, where would you put Moreno, Ball, Hillman? PPR & non-PPR?

I'd probably look at Moreno and Ball as RB3s (RB25-36 range) and Hillman as a late-round flier as an RB5 or RB6.

 

[OG_GF]

Did anyone else see the play where Manning was gonna get creamed and Moreno held the guy? Denver took a holding penalty and the reception was nulified, but Manning didn' get touched. If I was the coach, I would be thrilled with the heads up, protect Manning at all costs play by Moreno there, and it looks like that (as many of us suspected) is the main reason he is getting most of the snaps.

I agree that Moreno is not a dynamic playmaker, ala David Wilson, but he's the guy with the job because of his experience and complete skill set. I think I drafted him in the 15th round this year, long after Ball and Hillman were gone, and with Andre Brown going down, he's now my RB3. In PPR he will be more than servicable in that role.

 

[Buffaloes]

I think you could give every one of Knowshon Moreno's carries to, say, Lance Ball and you'd get the exact same result

If that were the case Lance would still be on the team considering how much cheaper he would have been as well as the fact he can play special teams and is just fine in the pass blocking dept.

Ball's a worse blocker and receiver, and he wasn't that much cheaper. Moreno is making $1.7m this year, while Ball was schedule for $1.3m. None of Ball's salary was guaranteed, so I think cutting Lance actually saved more money against the cap than cutting Moreno would have.

I forgot about the tender Denver extended to Lance so you may be right on Lance being cheaper to cut than Moreno. And I agree that Moreno is the better receiver. However, I do disagree with the notion that Lance is as good a runner as KM. What I will say is that the FO still doesn't seem enamored with Moreno and as soon as Ball gets everything figured out, I think he will eat into Moreno's snaps.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm curious to hear more from Gase and Fox about why they were rolling with Moreno so much. They mentioned this might be a "hot hand" situation- did Moreno show them something where they just couldn't take him off the field? Did the specific game plan (very, very pass-heavy) call for tons of Moreno, and in a normal game plan will he be relegated back to the 3rd string? Or is he now the 1st string RB going forward?

My initial thought is that it looked very game plan specific. Obviously Montee Ball was the back they were rolling with once they switched to a run-heavy game plan. If I had to guess, I'd think they passed around 75% of the time with Moreno on the field, and about 50% of the time with Ball. I also noticed that Moreno never got a single red zone carry (despite the seven TDs, Denver was only in the red zone twice, with Hillman getting one possession and Ball getting the other). Was that by design, or just by chance?

Interesting write-up SSOG. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't think it's a case of a "hot hand" situation so much as the Broncos are overcompensating running up the score with their potent pass offense to compensate for their specific short term losses in personnel on the defensive side. The old saying of the best defense being a good offense or something like that.

I don't think anyone is expecting Manning to throw 7 TD's every week, and the offensive production was a bit of an anomaly, even if we can agree it will continue to roll. Again, I think Moreno wasn't taken off the field for any specific flaw in his game. So much as the game was out of hand and Ball came into to mop up. If the game is within a score going into the 4th quarter, I bet you'd see a healthy dose of Moreno the entire game. I think you are a bit harsh on Moreno calling him a Mendoza RB. He's effective at taking what's there, and good in pass pro. A jack of all trades so to speak. You could do worse in Denver. He's the best 'complimentary' back they have. I am not sold on Ball passing Moreno on the depth chart this season. Not so much a knock on Ball as it is a situation of, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". Of course, injuries could changes things fast, but looks like Moreno is going to be the primary carrier this year. Hillman and Ball will get theirs of course, but typical games which aren't blowouts will be weighted toward Moreno.

When I call Moreno the "Mendoza Line", I'm referring to his running ability. Moreno is basically a replacement-level runner who only has a career because of his skills as a blocker and a receiver, just like Mendoza was a replacement level hitter whose MLB career was based on his standout defensive work.

Anyway, here's the breakdown of what each back did when he was on the field:

Knowshon Moreno- 9 rushes vs. 31 passes

23% carry, 40% run route, 8% run block, 30% pass block

Ronnie Hillman- 4 rushes vs. 11 passes

27% carry, 47% run route, 0% run block, 27% pass block

Montee Ball- 8 rushes vs. 10 passes

44% carry, 28% run route, 11% run block, 17% pass block

Clearly Denver ran a more run-heavy offense with Ball on the field, and a more pass-heavy offense with Moreno on the field. That makes sense, as it fits better with each player's strengths. The question then becomes how the snaps will break down if Denver goes into a game with a more run-heavy game plan.

Adam, I have to disagree a bit with your prognosis.

Ball's first two carries came at 9:06 in the 3rd quarter at the Baltimore 15 with the score 28-17. He did not touch the ball again until the 4th quarter at 10:28, where they ran 3 runs and punted, and then again at 5:29 and 2:19. Ball became involved in the game when Denver had a comfortable lead and wanted to burn the clock.

Moreno on the other hand was the main guy in quarters 1-3 for the most part with Hillman spelling him. Hillman was used in the 1st quarter, 3rd quarter, and 4th quarter. I am not reading anything into this mess based on Montee's usage when the game was well in hand. In my opinion, Ball is the run out the clock guy, but I certainly wouldn't say he was the run-heavy guy. That was the nature of his usage.

Right now, there is no value in the DEN running game unless one person comes out of this mess.

I said earlier that any back that gets 40% of the work will be a decent flex play, and any back that gets 50% of the work is a fantasy RB2, and I stand by that whether it's Moreno, Ball, or Hillman. Prior to week 1, I didn't think there was any chance it would be Moreno. Clearly I was wrong. Either way, as long as someone is getting a large enough share of the pie, they'll produce. Denver's not going to pass the ball 75% of the time all season long. Denver's not going to throw for 100 TDs and rush for 0 this year.

Anyway, we can discuss why Denver was more run-heavy with Ball on the field- whether they meant all along for him to be the garbage-time back, or whether they put him in specifically because the game plan called for more running- but it's pretty clear that Denver's offense was a lot more likely to run the ball when Ball was on the field than it was when Moreno was on the field. Which I'd say is a clear case of playing to each player's strengths, because Ball is a better pure runner than Moreno, whereas Moreno is better in the passing game.

I agree there will be games that Denver runs the ball more than they did against the Ravens.

Examples of heavy run game plans may be when the Bronco's face the Raiders. Seems like a good time to get an early lead and then give Montee Ball or Anderson or whomever a lot of carries and try to establish this part of their offense when there is less risk of this causing a missed block in pass protection, and points are not as needed with lead established.

They get the Raiders week 3. The Bronco's with longer week of preparation could even have this as part of their plan against the Giants who's run defense (front 7) does not as much impress me as what the Ravens have available. So it could be sooner than we think. Although the Giants are a potent offense, so they may employ similar game plan against them because of this.

Week 3 would be a good time to target possible increase in action for Ball I think.

I also want to say I have a lot of respect for Adam's opinions despite small things we disagree about at times. As I have respect for most people who put in the time to contribute informed opinions here.

I do also like to have fun sometimes and talk smack. But I mean no disrespect by that. Just having a bit of fun.

I still think end of year Moreno ends up with about 30% of the rushing attempts and perhaps 50% of the receptions, if healthy all season. With Moreno seeing 50-60% of total snaps. But most of those snaps, Moreno will be blocking. To me that is a fringe flex play not worth a large investment. Maybe Moreno could exceed this value but I doubt that.

When the Bronco's do want to run the ball a lot I expect them to use more of Ball/Hillman/Anderson. A running back by competition. Someone could win the feature role later on in the season. But they need to get up to speed on passing downs to be more than a situational play, for example week 3 vs. the Raiders.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I don't hate Moreno. I drafted him in plenty of leagues this year- more than any other Denver RB, in fact. Sometimes, he was the only Denver RB I took in the entire draft- and I can prove it!

Okay, I know that mock draft took place in late June, but how in the world, even then, did Ryan Mathews and Ahmad Bradshaw go before Peyton Manning? My God.

 

[LawFitz]

I don't hate Moreno. I drafted him in plenty of leagues this year- more than any other Denver RB, in fact. Sometimes, he was the only Denver RB I took in the entire draft- and I can prove it!

Okay, I know that mock draft took place in late June, but how in the world, even then, did Ryan Mathews and Ahmad Bradshaw go before Peyton Manning? My God.

My guess is a scoring system that overweights RB and underweights QB by allowing you to start 3 RBs (via flex) and only gives you 4 pts per TD pass.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I don't hate Moreno. I drafted him in plenty of leagues this year- more than any other Denver RB, in fact. Sometimes, he was the only Denver RB I took in the entire draft- and I can prove it!

Okay, I know that mock draft took place in late June, but how in the world, even then, did Ryan Mathews and Ahmad Bradshaw go before Peyton Manning? My God.

The staff drafts were notoriously late on QBs. Notice Aaron Rodgers lasted until 3.03 and Drew Brees went in the 4th (!!!), Newton and Manning were both 5th rounders, and Brady hung around until the 7th. At some point it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as even the guys who love the top QBs this year and think they're worth a second rounder (such as me) will wait at the position because they know the QBs will fall to them later (such as Brees in the 4th). I think as we got closer to the season, QBs crept up a little bit, but still, QBs always last far longer in FBG staff drafts than you think they would or should.

 

[OG_GF]

Moreno sucks. Does not deserve a chance to prove himself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0s1U8xnS-yg

Wont be worth a flex start. Right? Adrian Peterson may be an easy #1 overall pick, it's the guys you get in the 17th round, that are viable starters ... that wins you the salad.

 

[OG_GF]

Also, in a blog talk radio interview, when McGahee went down last year, I was asked how much of my FAAB I was gonna spend to get Hillman ... I said, "I don't want to give away my secrets ... but I don't think I will be bidding on Hillman at all." And I didn't. And when waivers opened, Moreno was still there and I got him for nothing.

See the skillz.

McGahee/Moreno last year was money!

 

[OG_GF]

I'm a Giants fan ... so I understand John Fox. There's value in being deceptive. He's been deceptive about Ball and Hillman ... when it comes down to it, Moreno is the starter.

Moreno is the only back with the complete skill set and experience. AND ... as a former "bust" ... might have something to prove.

Fox will .... has ... motivated him, or he wouldn't be on the team. Top sleeper in my drafts this year.

Last year, in my 250 auction ... I paid $8 for CJ Spiller. Another, first round "bust".

Do I think Moreno will put up CJ Spiller type numbers ... no. He doesn't have to. He just has to continue to be smart and well rounded. He's got the skillz.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I don't hate Moreno. I drafted him in plenty of leagues this year- more than any other Denver RB, in fact. Sometimes, he was the only Denver RB I took in the entire draft- and I can prove it!

Okay, I know that mock draft took place in late June, but how in the world, even then, did Ryan Mathews and Ahmad Bradshaw go before Peyton Manning? My God.

The staff drafts were notoriously late on QBs. Notice Aaron Rodgers lasted until 3.03 and Drew Brees went in the 4th (!!!), Newton and Manning were both 5th rounders, and Brady hung around until the 7th. At some point it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as even the guys who love the top QBs this year and think they're worth a second rounder (such as me) will wait at the position because they know the QBs will fall to them later (such as Brees in the 4th). I think as we got closer to the season, QBs crept up a little bit, but still, QBs always last far longer in FBG staff drafts than you think they would or should.

I noticed that in the auctions I did, too, that quarterbacks went for more and more as the regular season grew nearer. In the first one I did in late July, I got Brady for a measly $12 (!!!!), but by the time I was doing one of my last ones on Labor Day last week, even guys like Stafford and Romo were going for $20+.

 

[I Love Your Fantasy Team]

Moreno sucks. Does not deserve a chance to prove himself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0s1U8xnS-yg

Wont be worth a flex start. Right? Adrian Peterson may be an easy #1 overall pick, it's the guys you get in the 17th round, that are viable starters ... that wins you the salad.

Everyone looks good when that song is playing in the background.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Moreno sucks. Does not deserve a chance to prove himself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0s1U8xnS-yg

Wont be worth a flex start. Right? Adrian Peterson may be an easy #1 overall pick, it's the guys you get in the 17th round, that are viable starters ... that wins you the salad.

I do have to say, when a player's been in the league for 4 years and people are still posting highlight reels from his college days, that tells you something important about that player.

 

[gradin123]

This is still a pretty fluid situation but right now Moreno is the best play in terms of yardage and PPR and Ball still looks likely to get the most TDs and they actually used Ball in the closer role, I suspect this situation is going to become a 3 headed one like the Saints run. Purely situational running backs. The Broncos look like they will be more pass heavy this year which probably bodes well for moreno but they also are likely to be playing in front a lot late in games which bodes well for Ball.

Ball still carries the most upside and likely will see goalline work. The only time the Broncos were close in to the endzone it was Ball who was in the backfield and he made a nifty move and almost scored on his one carry near the goalline. But Moreno is the most useful now in terms of yardage and PPR and Hillman you might as well cut.

 

[Adam Harstad]

This is still a pretty fluid situation but right now Moreno is the best play in terms of yardage and PPR and Ball still looks likely to get the most TDs and they actually used Ball in the closer role, I suspect this situation is going to become a 3 headed one like the Saints run. Purely situational running backs. The Broncos look like they will be more pass heavy this year which probably bodes well for moreno but they also are likely to be playing in front a lot late in games which bodes well for Ball.

Ball still carries the most upside and likely will see goalline work. The only time the Broncos were close in to the endzone it was Ball who was in the backfield and he made a nifty move and almost scored on his one carry near the goalline. But Moreno is the most useful now in terms of yardage and PPR and Hillman you might as well cut.

The first time Denver was in the red zone was following the blocked punt in the 3rd quarter. At that point, it was first-and-goal from the 10 yard line, and Denver ran two pass plays resulting in Wes Welker's first touchdown. Ronnie Hillman, not Montee Ball, was the RB on the field for that series, even if he didn't get any touches. Ball came in in the red zone on the next series, which was the second and last time Denver would reach the red zone all night.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I am getting close I'm ready 2 play almost there did alot of cutting and pass routes getting back in shape lets go pic.twitter.com/H22tctjQHR

 

[I Love Your Fantasy Team]

I am getting close I'm ready 2 play almost there did alot of cutting and pass routes getting back in shape lets go pic.twitter.com/H22tctjQHR

Dude, we get it.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Greg Cosell weighed in on the Denver RB situation, today:

Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno is a mechanical and robotic runner. Rookie Montee Ball will beat him out as soon as he becomes a better pass protector.

FWIW.

I am getting close I'm ready 2 play almost there did alot of cutting and pass routes getting back in shape lets go pic.twitter.com/H22tctjQHR

He's a major long-shot this year, even when healthy. Worth a long-term stash in deeper dynasties, but he's not even on my radar in redraft leagues unless I've got a 20-player bench.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

What about Hillman? Is he worth stashing anymore?

 

[Eminence]

I'm pretty confident we're going to continue to see healthy doses of Moreno. This is John Fox and as long as Peyton Manning is happy and his blitzes are being picked up, I don't think we'll see them attempt anything cute anytime soon. I do really like Montee Ball's upside and think he can take the reigns of this offense by next season.

But for now, Manning has a reliable pass catcher and pass blocker. Which is more important that running ability at this point.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Lifeboat #1-row 3 please. Non oar seat if you have one.

 

[Adam Harstad]

What about Hillman? Is he worth stashing anymore?

I'd give him another week before cutting him loose entirely just to see if anything changes. He's certainly on thin ice, though.

 

[Judge Smails]

Greg Cosell weighed in on the Denver RB situation, today:

Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno is a mechanical and robotic runner. Rookie Montee Ball will beat him out as soon as he becomes a better pass protector.

FWIW.

I am getting close I'm ready 2 play almost there did alot of cutting and pass routes getting back in shape lets go pic.twitter.com/H22tctjQHR

He's a major long-shot this year, even when healthy. Worth a long-term stash in deeper dynasties, but he's not even on my radar in redraft leagues unless I've got a 20-player bench.

People act like "becoming a better pass blocker" is a quick fix. Newsflash - he might never become a better pass protector. I'm sure the Giants spent thousands of hours working with David Wilson on pass protection since they acquired him. Epic fail. Ball might be the same. Don't know yet. But to me, if they aren't better in pass protection by the time the season starts they usually don't acquire the skill set during that particular season.

 

[Teef]

Greg Cosell weighed in on the Denver RB situation, today:

Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno is a mechanical and robotic runner. Rookie Montee Ball will beat him out as soon as he becomes a better pass protector.

FWIW.

You just don't get it.

In real football, nobody cares if Ball becomes the lead back this season or not. As soon as Manning goes down, Denver's season is OVAH. It could take all year to become a trusted pass blocker for Manning, maybe longer, just ask David Wilson. Cosell's take is the same as everyone else's, mine included. I'll continue to hold in dynasty, but he's at the bottom of my bench in re-draft as his only value is at the stripe, on obvious running downs, pass patterns and garbage time. Good luck guessing right.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Greg Cosell weighed in on the Denver RB situation, today:

Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno is a mechanical and robotic runner. Rookie Montee Ball will beat him out as soon as he becomes a better pass protector.

FWIW.

You just don't get it.

In real football, nobody cares if Ball becomes the lead back this season or not. As soon as Manning goes down, Denver's season is OVAH. It could take all year to become a trusted pass blocker for Manning, maybe longer, just ask David Wilson. Cosell's take is the same as everyone else's, mine included. I'll continue to hold in dynasty, but he's at the bottom of my bench in re-draft as his only value is at the stripe, on obvious running downs, pass patterns and garbage time. Good luck guessing right.

Maybe his leagues reward style points?? Points per spin or something

 

[Adam Harstad]

Or maybe I didn't have any agenda other than sharing a link where a prominent football analyst commented on the Denver Broncos RB situation in a thread devoted to the Denver Broncos RB situation.

 

[Tau837]

Greg Cosell weighed in on the Denver RB situation, today:

Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno is a mechanical and robotic runner. Rookie Montee Ball will beat him out as soon as he becomes a better pass protector.

FWIW.

I am getting close I'm ready 2 play almost there did alot of cutting and pass routes getting back in shape lets go pic.twitter.com/H22tctjQHR

He's a major long-shot this year, even when healthy. Worth a long-term stash in deeper dynasties, but he's not even on my radar in redraft leagues unless I've got a 20-player bench.

People act like "becoming a better pass blocker" is a quick fix. Newsflash - he might never become a better pass protector. I'm sure the Giants spent thousands of hours working with David Wilson on pass protection since they acquired him. Epic fail. Ball might be the same. Don't know yet. But to me, if they aren't better in pass protection by the time the season starts they usually don't acquire the skill set during that particular season.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Or maybe I didn't have any agenda other than sharing a link where a prominent football analyst commented on the Denver Broncos RB situation in a thread devoted to the Denver Broncos RB situation.

I'm not trying to pile on, and I didn't read back through all the cyberbickering, but that cosell quote is essentially worthless.

you and cosell are apparently making teh observation that a rookie rb they took in the 2nd is a better runner than a jagback that hasn't impressed anyone in 4 yrs, and that ball's currently on the bench because the 4 yr guy is the better choice on passing downs.

is there anything there that isn't obvious to everyone and hasn't been repeated a million times already?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

What about Hillman? Is he worth stashing anymore?

I'd give him another week before cutting him loose entirely just to see if anything changes. He's certainly on thin ice, though.

I think all these things come down to your particular league situation and roster, but I think he's probably worth stashing simply due to scarcity at the position, and the offense he's on.

I don't see much changing from week 1, but if moreno was to get even some minor injury I think you'd see a lot more of hillman, and that has some kind of value, albeit if just in the typical vulture/handcuff sense.

 

[Biabreakable]

Even though the Ravens rarely blitzed (the only first-half blitz was a zone blitz out of the nickel),

I have a lot of respect for Cosell but what?

I frequently saw 5-6 pass rushers which is what made having a RB who could pick up the blitz important in the 1st place.

What criteria could he be using for the Ravens pass rush to be considered a blitz?

Is rushing 5 considered normal because it is a 3-4? I suppose but they are still rushing 5+

As far as guessing. Some people drafted Ball way too high. They might need to. Week 3 vs. the Raiders seems like a good target date for when they may look to get Ball more involved I would think.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Or maybe I didn't have any agenda other than sharing a link where a prominent football analyst commented on the Denver Broncos RB situation in a thread devoted to the Denver Broncos RB situation.

I'm not trying to pile on, and I didn't read back through all the cyberbickering, but that cosell quote is essentially worthless.

you and cosell are apparently making teh observation that a rookie rb they took in the 2nd is a better runner than a jagback that hasn't impressed anyone in 4 yrs, and that ball's currently on the bench because the 4 yr guy is the better choice on passing downs.

is there anything there that isn't obvious to everyone and hasn't been repeated a million times already?

There's a reason I attached it as a one-off to a post I was making anyway, rather than devoting an entire new post to it. I agree that there's no new information there. I'm just saying, this is a thread devoted to the Denver Broncos RB situation. Greg Cosell is a highly regarded national analyst. He made comments concerning the Broncos RB situation. I thought it was relevant enough to warrant at least a throwaway link.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Or maybe I didn't have any agenda other than sharing a link where a prominent football analyst commented on the Denver Broncos RB situation in a thread devoted to the Denver Broncos RB situation.

I'm not trying to pile on, and I didn't read back through all the cyberbickering, but that cosell quote is essentially worthless.

you and cosell are apparently making teh observation that a rookie rb they took in the 2nd is a better runner than a jagback that hasn't impressed anyone in 4 yrs, and that ball's currently on the bench because the 4 yr guy is the better choice on passing downs.

is there anything there that isn't obvious to everyone and hasn't been repeated a million times already?

There's a reason I attached it as a one-off to a post I was making anyway, rather than devoting an entire new post to it. I agree that there's no new information there. I'm just saying, this is a thread devoted to the Denver Broncos RB situation. Greg Cosell is a highly regarded national analyst. He made comments concerning the Broncos RB situation. I thought it was relevant enough to warrant at least a throwaway link.

It just so happened to support your argument for the past 16 pages. I was just kidding. Knowshon could run backwards for all I care.

 

[hines]

I listened to the Audible Waiver Wire show today and Bloom and Lammey were in agreement that CJ Anderson was the guy to target in this backfield. they said they would rather have him than Knowshon Moreno right now. does this sound like possibly some of the worst fantasy advice given by Bloom ever or am I just crazy? picking up an UDFA rookie who is having problems cutting without pain as he returns from a knee injury and isn't known as a good pass blocker over the starting Denver RB?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Bloom and I were arguing about this on Twitter earlier. The fact that Denver kept Anderson means that they like him long-term, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they think he's going to factor into the mix this year. Denver burned a roster spot on Julius Thomas all of last year knowing that he wouldn't contribute, but also knowing that he could bring something to the table in the future. So the fact that Anderson made the final 53-man roster isn't proof that the coaching staff likes him for this year.

The way I see it, Anderson has to have a lot of things break his way in order to be fantasy relevant this season. (1) he has to get healthy (which will take several more weeks, at least), (2) he has to get some carries in an already-crowded backfield, (3) he has to really turn some heads with the limited carries he'll get, (4) he'll have to hope some of the guys ahead of him stink up the joint and get taken out of the rotation. How long will all that take? At least 4 weeks, right (another week or two to get healthy, and another week or two after that with an undefined role while he tries to impress coaches enough to move up)? And are you willing to keep devoting a roster spot to a longshot for that long while waiting to see how it shakes out?

Anyway, if all of that breaks his way, then and only then will C.J. Anderson be a crappy flex play. From there, it'll take at least one, possibly two injuries to get any decent fantasy value. That's a lot of things that have to break right. It's not entirely outside the realm of possibility. Denver once had SEVEN running backs suffer season-ending injuries. Injuries and obscene amounts of suck once led to Denver's fullback leading them in rushing yards. Still, that's a lot of ifs and ands, several of which are outside of Anderson's control, and I feel like in all but the deepest of redraft leagues there are probably players with much better odds somewhere else that you could burn that roster spot on.

Moreno and Ball, on the other hand, both have much simpler paths to relevance. Moreno: Continue getting 60% of the offensive snaps, *OR* injury to Ball. Ball: Improve as a pass blocker *OR* dominate the goal-line work *OR* injury to Moreno. Either of them could be quality starts as soon as next week or the week after. I'd feel much more comfortable placing bets on either of those guys. I'd probably have to be playing in a league with 20 or 22 man rosters before I'd even begin to consider Anderson in redraft.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The way I see it, Anderson has to have a lot of things break his way in order to be fantasy relevant this season. (1) he has to get healthy (which will take several more weeks, at least), (2) he has to get some carries in an already-crowded backfield, (3) he has to really turn some heads with the limited carries he'll get, (4) he'll have to hope some of the guys ahead of him stink up the joint and get taken out of the rotation. How long will all that take? At least 4 weeks, right (another week or two to get healthy, and another week or two after that with an undefined role while he tries to impress coaches enough to move up)? And are you willing to keep devoting a roster spot to a longshot for that long while waiting to see how it shakes out?Anyway, if all of that breaks his way, then and only then will C.J. Anderson be a crappy flex play. From there, it'll take at least one, possibly two injuries to get any decent fantasy value. That's a lot of things that have to break right. It's not entirely outside the realm of possibility. Denver once had SEVEN running backs suffer season-ending injuries. Injuries and obscene amounts of suck once led to Denver's fullback leading them in rushing yards. Still, that's a lot of ifs and ands, several of which are outside of Anderson's control, and I feel like in all but the deepest of redraft leagues there are probably players with much better odds somewhere else that you could burn that roster spot on.

Pretty good framework here. Where I disagree with you is:

1) he may be healthy as soon as next week

4) the other guys will continue to stink up the joint because they aren't any good

2/3) Anderson is better than the other guys who stink, possibly a lot better, and I'm guessing the coaches have already figured that out. They saw him all camp, he had a strong preseason game, was running with the 2s immediately following the 1st preseason game, and made the active roster as an injured UDFA.

And if he gets an opportunity I expect him to shine given that the situation is so RB friendly. We're not talking about Moreno/Ball/Hillman flailing helpless behind Pittsburgh's line here. This is as awesome a RB situation as it gets. McGahee.

Do I think the above is probable in 2013? No. But it's possible -- far more likely than you're crediting. And regardless, I'd rather be holding the guy who might have RB 1/2 value than holding the guys who will only ever have RB 3/4 value.

 

[Shutout]

As a person who was saying "Moreno", I'll try to offer a completely unbiased opinion on Anderson.

I think the Broncos clearly see something they like and if things with the other running backs continue to go the way they started, then I think the door of opportunity opens soner than later. The Broncos have already outlined a plan for using Moreno to benefit Manning and they have an idea of giving carries to the other guys but if those other guys continue to do what they did last week and in pre-season, at some point the Broncos are going to find themselves in a game in the 4th quarter, up by a couple of TDs and they are going to say "Let's put this kid in and see what we've got...give him some meaningful time."

Those situations are dangerous usurper door openers because what happens is a fresh guy comes in against a beaten, tired team and typically looks better than he otherwise would and if the player can sustain that momentum, next thing you know, the opportunity is sitting there. In the end it will come down to what he can do with that opportunity if it ever arises. I generally like scenarios like this because if they are playing out, it usually indicates that the team isn't really happy with what they are getting out of their players and we see those types of changing of the guard scenarios a lot in football.

All in all, I think the fact that the Broncos are willing to openly talk about using 3 backs gives Anderson a higher than normal chance of making a sooner than later impact because all that is really needed is an injury to any one of the three backs to give an open door.

 

[socrates]

I listened to the Audible Waiver Wire show today and Bloom and Lammey were in agreement that CJ Anderson was the guy to target in this backfield. they said they would rather have him than Knowshon Moreno right now. does this sound like possibly some of the worst fantasy advice given by Bloom ever or am I just crazy? picking up an UDFA rookie who is having problems cutting without pain as he returns from a knee injury and isn't known as a good pass blocker over the starting Denver RB?

I have heaps of respect for these guys, and they have led me right far more often than they have steered me wrong. Cecil and Bloom have a habit of unearthing hidden gems long before most of the fantasy community, so when they make these types of comments, I listen. Yet, to me, Anderson looks like a plodder. He does many things well, but I don't see any special qualities that particularly stand out to me. Anderson was a part-time back for Cal, and predicting he will be anything more than that for the Broncos who have a logjam at the position already seems like a bit of a reach.

Now, with all of that said, consider this, especially if you play in a dynasty league: Is Knowshon going to help you win your championship? It seems highly unlikely that Knowshon will ever be more than just a spoke in the Denver RBBC wheel. If Cecil and Lammey are right, they are suggesting Anderson could be more than that. Food for thought.

 

[Rick James]

What about Hillman? Is he worth stashing anymore?

I dropped him yesterday for Brandon Bolden. It all depends on your league and team, though. We have short benches (5 players), and I have three solid RBs anyway (Martin, Shady, and David Wilson) so Hillman is expendable.