Bucs Receivers (1 Viewer)

[ponchsox]

VJax ADP is 54

Mike Williams ADP is 123

What do you expect out of these two? It seems to me Mike Williams is the better value and could return to 2010 form with VJax drawing coverage away from him. Of course, all depends on if Freeman performs better than last year. Thoughts?

 

[Chazzhawk]

I don't want either, Williams is going to end up being a slightly better version of Micheal Clayton, and I don't mind Jackson but not in the 5th round. I would give a 7th rounder for him.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

PPR : I've never drafted Jackson. Not the type receiver I want --too hit/miss (only been over 60 catches once in year). In addition, I usually stay away from WR's approaching 30 that change teams. I've always viewed him as a WR3 in PPR format.

Williams: Meh. Until he's learns how to run routes, he's not going to be a consistent performer.

Only guy that really interests me on Tampa offense is Doug Martin. I see many catches out of the backfield this year.

 

[Saint]

The question is do you have faith in Freeman? Personally, being able to take Mike Williams after the 10th round seems like a no brainer decision because of his upside.

 

[ponchsox]

PPR : I've never drafted Jackson. Not the type receiver I want --too hit/miss (only been over 60 catches once in year). In addition, I usually stay away from WR's approaching 30 that change teams. I've always viewed him as a WR3 in PPR format.Williams: Meh. Until he's learns how to run routes, he's not going to be a consistent performer. Only guy that really interests me on Tampa offense is Doug Martin. I see many catches out of the backfield this year.

I think Martin will help Freeman and the passing game. When Blount was effective in 2010 Freeman had a good season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Jackson won't be as productive with Freeman as he was with Rivers, and his production was always way up and down with Rivers. Some think Jackson will catch more balls now, but he is not really a guy who likes catching short passes and taking big hits while getting a 7-yard gain. He is a deep threat, nothing more, nothing less, from what I've seen. If I am wrong, I'll admit it, but I'll be shocked if he outperforms his ADP this year.

 

[Zackattack]

I had V.Jackosn last year. I don't see myself every drafting him again. he doesn't show up often and drops big passes. I traded him away in both leagues. I don't like his effort or lack of.

 

[ldizzle]

only way i draft vjax is in a best ball league.

i dont know about williams. last year he almost had the exact same season his rookie year minus the td's

last i heard they are going to run it more. in addition, some say he gave up last year.

2010: 128 tgts, 64 rec, 955 yds, 11 td's

2011: 124 tgts, 65 rec, 771 yds, 03 td's

vjax will likely be the better rz target.

all in all, im kind of down on him this year. but maybe he shows something in preseason

 

[David Yudkin]

Last I saw, Williams was not doing well (in OTAs) and some people thought he could lose his starting spot to Preston Parker.

 

[PewterFan]

Personally, being able to take Mike Williams after the 10th round seems like a no brainer decision because of his upside.

Reasons why I like Mike Williams this year:-The removal of Kellen Winslow. He was always in Freeman's ear to get him the ball. He was a cancer and kudos to Schiano for recognizing that early.

-The addition of Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark. Jackson will take on the burden of CB1's and Clark is a pro's pro. He'll get his share of catches, but won't be in Freeman's ear about getting balls thrown his way.

-A full offseason. This is great for both Freeman and Williams. Last year's lockout did them no favors.

-Greg Schiano in, Raheem Morris out. It's well documented how Morris was way over his head. This is looking like a NFL team again.

 

[Shutout]

PPR : I've never drafted Jackson. Not the type receiver I want --too hit/miss (only been over 60 catches once in year). In addition, I usually stay away from WR's approaching 30 that change teams. I've always viewed him as a WR3 in PPR format.

Williams: Meh. Until he's learns how to run routes, he's not going to be a consistent performer.

Only guy that really interests me on Tampa offense is Doug Martin. I see many catches out of the backfield this year.

I think you have been viewing him wrong then. The last two seasons he has played, he's finished top 12-15 in ppr.Overall, I'm a little surprised that people are down on VJAX at his ADP because, yes, he can be hit or miss, but he finishes as a top 12-15 WR. IMO, if people are still willing to think of Chris Johnson (the ultimate feast or famine RB) as a top RB, they should give the same consideration to VJAX. It may not be pretty every week, but he's a beast sometimes (just like CJ). I think you could do worse at his ADP because he can win you a week sometimes.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I think you have been viewing him wrong then. The last two seasons he has played, he's finished top 12-15 in ppr.

Not at all. And I absolutely love that people like you look at it like this and waste the early pick on him as your top WR.I play week-2-week. I want consistency from my top WR's. Not someone that'll score 30 points one week, 5 the next in PPR format.

 

[amicsta]

The issue with all Tampa wide outs is that they project to be a very run heavy offense. Freeman may not even see 500 pass attempts this year, which would limit the chances for vjax and williams to make plays.

 

[Chazzhawk]

PPR : I've never drafted Jackson. Not the type receiver I want --too hit/miss (only been over 60 catches once in year). In addition, I usually stay away from WR's approaching 30 that change teams. I've always viewed him as a WR3 in PPR format.

Williams: Meh. Until he's learns how to run routes, he's not going to be a consistent performer.

Only guy that really interests me on Tampa offense is Doug Martin. I see many catches out of the backfield this year.

I think you have been viewing him wrong then. The last two seasons he has played, he's finished top 12-15 in ppr.Overall, I'm a little surprised that people are down on VJAX at his ADP because, yes, he can be hit or miss, but he finishes as a top 12-15 WR. IMO, if people are still willing to think of Chris Johnson (the ultimate feast or famine RB) as a top RB, they should give the same consideration to VJAX. It may not be pretty every week, but he's a beast sometimes (just like CJ). I think you could do worse at his ADP because he can win you a week sometimes.

How can a guy rush for 2000 yards in a season and be feast or famine? Last year he was horrible, but before that he was good

 

[bengalbuck]

PPR : I've never drafted Jackson. Not the type receiver I want --too hit/miss (only been over 60 catches once in year). In addition, I usually stay away from WR's approaching 30 that change teams. I've always viewed him as a WR3 in PPR format.

Williams: Meh. Until he's learns how to run routes, he's not going to be a consistent performer.

Only guy that really interests me on Tampa offense is Doug Martin. I see many catches out of the backfield this year.

I think you have been viewing him wrong then. The last two seasons he has played, he's finished top 12-15 in ppr.Overall, I'm a little surprised that people are down on VJAX at his ADP because, yes, he can be hit or miss, but he finishes as a top 12-15 WR. IMO, if people are still willing to think of Chris Johnson (the ultimate feast or famine RB) as a top RB, they should give the same consideration to VJAX. It may not be pretty every week, but he's a beast sometimes (just like CJ). I think you could do worse at his ADP because he can win you a week sometimes.

How can a guy rush for 2000 yards in a season and be feast or famine? Last year he was horrible, but before that he was good

Yeah, I don't get the CJ comment. He had 12 100 yard rushing games 3 years ago and 8 of them 2 years ago before his down year after the contract dispute (plus 40+ catches each year). VJax is really tough to project for me. As mentioned, he was pretty much a deep threat only in San Diego who never got a ton of targets from Rivers. The San Diego offense really spread the ball around. Gates was the #1 option. They threw the ball to the RBs a ton with Mathews/Tolbert combining for over 90 catches. They also had multiple other WRs like Malcom Floyd who got decently large target numbers.

He went from getting a relatively small percent of the targets to a situation where he is the clear #1 on a team where the ball will probably be spread around much less. He has never been targeted more than 115 times. I think there's a decent chance that he gets more targets than that this year....no idea how well he will do with those targets from Freeman instead of Rivers, but I think there is a decent chance he has a very good year.

Another thing to keep in mind is that while TB wants to be a run first team, I think their D is still going to be pretty bad this year. They are going to give up a lot of points, especially with New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina in the division. They are going to be down double digits and need to throw a bunch to try to comeback more than they want to and VJax as the big play guy could be a real beneficiary.

 

[Dippa]

Another thing to keep in mind is that while TB wants to be a run first team, I think their D is still going to be pretty bad this year. They are going to give up a lot of points, especially with New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina in the division. They are going to be down double digits and need to throw a bunch to try to comeback more than they want to and VJax as the big play guy could be a real beneficiary.

Very good point, and I was about to mention that. The Bucs gave up almost 31 PPG on average last year, good for dead last in the NFL. Meanwhile, the rest of the NFC south were all in the top 10 offenses for PPG. I keep hearing that Schiano is a run first coach, but if you're in those types of game situations, you don't have much of a choice but to pass.

 

[Run It Up]

VJax ADP is 54 Mike Williams ADP is 123What do you expect out of these two? It seems to me Mike Williams is the better value and could return to 2010 form with VJax drawing coverage away from him. Of course, all depends on if Freeman performs better than last year. Thoughts?

I like both this year and half drafted them both twice between 3 leagues.I think as late as Vjax is going he is actually the better value (from my experience at least, hes going well into the 6th).I think Vjax is capable of dropping 1000/75/11 this year and I think Williams could possibly blow up in some PPR leagues getting close to 80 rec and 8-10 tds.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I actually see Vjax doing vey well this year as a true #1. Don't forget with the Chargers Gates has always been Rivers top target especially in the red zone. Those lack of red zone looks is what made VJ very hit or miss a lot of weeks.

 

[whatadai]

I actually see Vjax doing vey well this year as a true #1. Don't forget with the Chargers Gates has always been Rivers top target especially in the red zone. Those lack of red zone looks is what made VJ very hit or miss a lot of weeks.

You're operating with the assumption that the Bucs will be in the red zone as many times as the Bolts get in...which isn't even close. The Chargers also got in the red zone less last year because everyone was injured.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

The Bucs gave up almost 31 PPG on average last year, good for dead last in the NFL.

So how many worthwhile fantasy receivers did Tampa have last year constantly playing in catch up mode and forced to pass all year??

 

[Bayhawks]

I think you have been viewing him wrong then. The last two seasons he has played, he's finished top 12-15 in ppr.

Not at all. And I absolutely love that people like you look at it like this and waste the early pick on him as your top WR.I play week-2-week. I want consistency from my top WR's. Not someone that'll score 30 points one week, 5 the next in PPR format.

VJax would be the ultimate 2nd WR (assuming his scoring pattern this year in TB is similar to how it was in SD), when paired with a consistent 1st WR. According to ffcalculator.com ADP, VJax is going at the end of the 5th round. You could have this team, with VJax as your WR2:1.11-Fitzgerald2.02-T Richardson (Steven Jackson, if you are not sold on Richardson)3.11-Michael Turner4.02-Tony Romo5.11-VJaxThat is not a bad lineup, at all, and I wouldn't consider that a "waste" of an early pick, with VJax as your WR2.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Overall, I'm a little surprised that people are down on VJAX at his ADP because, yes, he can be hit or miss, but he finishes as a top 12-15 WR. IMO, if people are still willing to think of Chris Johnson (the ultimate feast or famine RB) as a top RB, they should give the same consideration to VJAX. It may not be pretty every week, but he's a beast sometimes (just like CJ). I think you could do worse at his ADP because he can win you a week sometimes.

Jackson had 3 catches or less in 10 of his 16 games last year (only catching TDs in two of those games, rendering him useless in 7 of the other 8 games - the 3-84-0 game wasn't bad). Yes, he will usually have a few monster games (like the ones against NE and GB last year), but they are always outweighed by the pitiful games. In a 5-week stretch last year, he had the big game against GB, and in the other four games he had: 3-34-01-15-03-49-01-22-0Yes, all WRs are gonna have down weeks, but Jackson has them more frequently, and his down weeks tend to be really down. Like I said, he has monster weeks, and they are big enough to get his overall numbers up in that 10-15 WR range, and he will almost win a few weeks for FF teams he is on, but he will also cost you a lot of games as well. He is the ultimate "drives you nuts" WR, so when deciding if you want him or not, you have to decide beforehand if you want the headache or not.

 

[ldizzle]

vincent jackson standard scoring points going backwards from 2011-2009

13.0

04.1

09.3

05.5

13.2

02.5

22.5

02.2

32.1

04.9

01.5

03.4

16.8

06.4

29.2

03.1

05.3

05.4

29.2

04.3

11.1

07.3

22.8

12.0

05.4

03.9

05.6

01.0

17.4

16.3

20.2

10.6

05.6

12.0

20.1

11.6

FWIW:

19 games under 10.0_(52.77% of the time) more than 50% of the time he will help you lose

10 games from 10-20_(27.77% of the time) about 27% of the time he will be productive

7 games over 20_____(19.46% of the time) right above 19% he will help you win

 

[Chazzhawk]

Even though I don't like either at their ADP, there is one thing that may help Jackson in Tampa. In San Diego when Rivers started feeling the heat he would check the ball down to Tolbert and Matthews and he did this a TON. The one thing I noticed about Freeman is when he gets into trouble he doesn't check it down very often, partly because of Blount and partly because he can run. This might help Jackson get some more deep targets. I also noticed that if Freeman didn't think he could scramble he would try to force it to Williams or Winslow, that could also lead more targets.

 

[amicsta]

vincent jackson standard scoring points going backwards from 2011-200913.004.109.305.513.202.522.502.232.104.901.503.416.806.429.203.105.305.429.204.311.107.322.812.005.403.905.601.017.416.320.210.605.612.020.111.6FWIW:19 games under 10.0_(52.77% of the time) more than 50% of the time he will help you lose10 games from 10-20_(27.77% of the time) about 27% of the time he will be productive7 games over 20_____(19.46% of the time) right above 19% he will help you win

To add to your point, VJax's scoring average over those games is 11.02 which is solid, but his standard deviation is a whopping 8.49! That kind of inconsistency is a red flag if we're talking about someone you want to rely on. I'd rather a feast or famine guy like VJax as my WR3. Now granted, he's in a totally different offense now, but I would expect his usage to be similar: a few vertical passes a game to supplement a strong (hopefully) rushing attack).

 

[Dippa]

The Bucs gave up almost 31 PPG on average last year, good for dead last in the NFL.

So how many worthwhile fantasy receivers did Tampa have last year constantly playing in catch up mode and forced to pass all year??

None in particular, but that's obviously not the only factor. However, Williams' and Winslow's best games were all in losses, and if you look at their splits, they were far more productive when trailing than winning (obviously skewed due to being behind so often, but the difference is huge). If you add all of the production from Williams, Winslow, Benn, and Parker, there could have been a viable fantasy option if the pass distribution were different, but it was spread around. Do you disagree that playing from behind can create additional opportunities in the passing game?

 

[BWill]

I can't believe I havent heard Benns name.

Shouldn't he eat into targets? Maybe 50-70?

 

[ponchsox]

I can't believe I havent heard Benns name. Shouldn't he eat into targets? Maybe 50-70?

Benn's injured