*** Buffalo at Tennessee Week 6 *** (1 Viewer)

[The Duff Man]

If Knox is in I would love putting the big guys in and rolling out. Without him I don’t think you can call that with the game on the line. Had to sneak if going for it. Dawkins just got blown up. 
 

But again, they couldn’t convert in short. They already pulled the trick play for the 2 pt conversion and also threw to Sweeney for a short TD. They knew they were getting no push. 

 

[renesauz]

Buffalo defense was swiss cheese in that game. They needed to score the TD. Not sure they prevent a FG if Tenn has 3 timeouts and 30 seconds, and even if they did they weren't stopping them in OT. A Qb sneak there was fairly low risk....just didnt work

 

[SoBeDad]

From FFI: In 2020, Josh Allen was only 11 of 15 in "And One" rushing situations on 3rd or 4th down to get a 1st down or TD.

For comparison, Brissett was 9 of 9, Tua was 8 of 8, and Goff & Burrow were 7 of 8.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just saw a stat on ESPN that Josh Allen was 13-14 on 4th and 1 sneaks in his career.

 

[GroveDiesel]

From FFI: In 2020, Josh Allen was only 11 of 15 in "And One" rushing situations on 3rd or 4th down to get a 1st down or TD.

For comparison, Brissett was 9 of 9, Tua was 8 of 8, and Goff & Burrow were 7 of 8.

Just saw a stat on ESPN that Josh Allen was 13-14 on 4th and 1 sneaks in his career.

Pretty sure only one of these can be true.

 

[SoBeDad]

Pretty sure only one of these can be true.

The first stat is from 2020 and includes both 3rd and 4th downs "and one".

 

[GroveDiesel]

I know it’s whiny and the Bills didn’t really deserve to win with how poorly their defense played, but it’s frustrating that that hold got called on the kickoff return but this hold on Henry’s long TD run wasn’t called.

Ok, I’ll stop being a whiny fan (for now anyway).

 

[The Duff Man]

A few good replays out there. Josh picked the wrong side. On the right the DE was flared out wide and it would have been a much easier push. Indeed that side did get a good push. 
 

When he took the snap he also did a jump backward and left. Not sure if that is normal to avoid foot tangling on sneaks?  When he did this his feet were in horrible position behind him and moving backward to then try to get any forward push. And then he slipped trying to create that leverage. 
 

So basically bad all around. 

 

[The Duff Man]

I know it’s whiny and the Bills didn’t really deserve to win with how poorly their defense played, but it’s frustrating that that hold got called on the kickoff return but this hold on Henry’s long TD run wasn’t called.

Ok, I’ll stop being a whiny fan (for now anyway).

When they showed the end zone view from behind Henry it also clearly showed one of the Bills on the second level get pushed down from behind.  But yeah, if you are going to rely on consistent penalty calls as a road team in big games you are going to get your heart broken for sure. 

 

[ahartig]

I know it’s whiny and the Bills didn’t really deserve to win with how poorly their defense played, but it’s frustrating that that hold got called on the kickoff return but this hold on Henry’s long TD run wasn’t called.

Ok, I’ll stop being a whiny fan (for now anyway).

Ill be a whiny fan also, that hold wasn't as egregious as the hold that #15 on the titans lays on Poirier (21) on that run.  Watch it again, its brutal.  Poirier pretty much gets tackled.

 

[BobbyLayne]

What do we need tonight fellas?

I’m done in all 4 leagues but facing Zach Moss in one (up 25, s/b OK) and Singletary in another (up 12, pretty dicey.)

Anyone else sweating it out?

this probably goes in the bragging thread but for one I survived a MNF sweat.

Moss had 5.90, won by 18.63
Singletary had 9.80, won by 1.42
(he had 9.20 in the first half, 2-6 rushing first drive of 2nd half, 0 touches last 3 drives)

I've lost two this year on MNF

• Week 1 by 0.14 on a late Waller TD late 4th. I was gonna be fine - mathematically impossible to lose.But the Raiders had a RZ holding call, then it went 10 yard pass to Waller, 10 yard TD to Waller. Zero point one four.
  
• Week 2 by 7.79 on another MNF game TE. This time Robert Tonyan had the only good game of the season. 3-52-1, with the TD mercifully coming early in the 3rd. Tonyan scored 14.20, in his other 5 game this year he has 12.00.
  

nice to have one go my way for a change.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Buffalo defense was swiss cheese in that game. They needed to score the TD. Not sure they prevent a FG if Tenn has 3 timeouts and 30 seconds, and even if they did they weren't stopping them in OT. A Qb sneak there was fairly low risk....just didnt work

Yep.  My guess is that if you rewind the game to the 4th-and-1 decision and play it out from there a few million times, we probably win the game 75% of the time by going for it and either getting the TD (likely) or going to OT.  And the QB sneak is absolutely a fine call -- I did not want Daboll calling up a pass to a player eight yards behind the line of scrimmage, or anything else cute.  Allen converts that play nearly all the time.  

The Bills are going to clinch their division in week 12 or something.  Every loss hurts a little in terms of playoff seeding, but it's not the end of the world.  The takeaway here is that the defense absolutely collapsed in the second half, the offensive line played poorly, the play-calling was off-rhythm all night, and we still put up over 30 points and really should have won on the final possession.  Definitely a disappointing evening, but I can live with the occasional close loss.

 

[humpback]

Buffalo defense was swiss cheese in that game. They needed to score the TD. Not sure they prevent a FG if Tenn has 3 timeouts and 30 seconds, and even if they did they weren't stopping them in OT. A Qb sneak there was fairly low risk....just didnt work

They snapped the ball with 22 seconds on the clock, so if they kicked the FG they would have been kicking off with around 18 seconds left, and Tenn only had 2 TOs left. Who knows what would have happened in OT (they may not have needed to stop them if they received the ball first), but kicking a FG would have all but guaranteed sending it to OT.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

All I know is that while I'm unhappy that we lost, I feel totally fine with the 4th and 1 decision -- I strongly approve of the decision to go for it, and I like the QB sneak.  

Then I imagine waking up on Earth 2, in which the Bills kicked the FG and never saw the ball again in OT and I am shaking with anger at the hypothetical decision to play for OT when you had inches to go and plenty of time to take four shots at the end zone from three yards out and a QB who normally excels in exactly this situation.  Like, I'm getting angry just talking about it and this is something that didn't actually even happen.

 

[renesauz]

They snapped the ball with 22 seconds on the clock, so if they kicked the FG they would have been kicking off with around 18 seconds left, and Tenn only had 2 TOs left. Who knows what would have happened in OT (they may not have needed to stop them if they received the ball first), but kicking a FG would have all but guaranteed sending it to OT.

Tennessee spent one of those timeouts on fourth down. Tennessee had just scored on SIX STRAIGHT POSSESSIONS, including 4 TDs. You don't give them the ball back, you win the game in regulation.

I can see disagreeing about the specific play call, but not the choice to go for it. 

 

[humpback]

Tennessee spent one of those timeouts on fourth down. Tennessee had just scored on SIX STRAIGHT POSSESSIONS, including 4 TDs. You don't give them the ball back, you win the game in regulation.

I can see disagreeing about the specific play call, but not the choice to go for it. 

Yes, which is why they only had 2 TOs and not 3 as you said.

Not sure if you actually read my post- I didn't disagree with going for it, just said that the chance of Tennessee scoring in regulation if Baltimore kicked a FG was nill, partly because you had both the amount of time left and number of TOs incorrect.

Again, not saying I disagree with going for it there, but kicking the FG doesn't automatically give them the ball back either- they had a 50/50 chance of getting the ball first in OT.