Burrow vs. Lawrence - redraft and dynasty (1 Viewer)

[zamboni]

Looking at one of these guys in my draft spot for my new superflex keeper league.

In the long term, I like Lawrence a bit more. In the short term, Burrow has the better supporting cast/commitment to the passing game in the short term, but also has the injury to overcome. Lawrence also has some good skill guys but who knows if he’ll come out strong like Burrow and Herbert did.

Thoughts on the two in comparison?

 

[TripItUp]

Burrow in both, but it's close in dynasty.

 

[socrates]

I would probably select Lawrence in either format, but both are very close for me.  Burrow is coming off of a serious injury, and while I like his supporting cast more, Lawrence isn't exactly without weapons.  

 

[travdogg]

Burrow in redraft, Lawrence in dynasty. I think Lawrence's mobility might be the difference in the long run. In the short term Burrow has superior weapons, and while that may not change anytime soon, it also might.

Also, despite only 1 year of draft difference, Lawrence is roughly 3 years younger. 

 

[higgins]

Burrow in both. The only info we have at is this moment is that Burrow has performed to expectations (limited sample), he has weapons up the wazoo, and the HC/OC are competent. Other than Lawrence’s talent/pedigree & weapons, we have nothing else from that side. As a matter of fact, some would suggest his HC will be a failure. 

 

[ffmail4me]

This is tough. Definitely 2 of my favorite young QBs in the entire league. I like Burrow's weapons better, so I'd give him the slight nod. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

Burrow in redraft, Lawrence in dynasty. I think Lawrence's mobility might be the difference in the long run. In the short term Burrow has superior weapons, and while that may not change anytime soon, it also might.

Also, despite only 1 year of draft difference, Lawrence is roughly 3 years younger. 

Burrow is not exactly immobile. Time will tell if the injury hampers that though.

 

[Tanner9919]

any chance you can get Herbert instead? not sold on Cincy's coaching staff, and while TL looks like a phenom, he'll have Brian Schottenheimer as passing game coordinator, correct? oof. that could sink him faster than an ACL tear. 

IF I had to pick between TL and Burrow, I'm going TL - easier division, especially with the Colts taking a considerable hit at QB ( and I wasn't a fan of Wentz to begin with). Houston stinks, Titans are up-n-down. The afc north is brutally tough, and Cleveland is no longer a pushover, they have lots of young talent, they're going to be good for years to come. 

 

[BespokeJort]

Dynasty I go Lawrence just from a risk standpoint. The difference in respective value/career implications drop from a potential blown knee this coming year is massive. Outside of that it feels close to a wash

 

[zamboni]

any chance you can get Herbert instead? not sold on Cincy's coaching staff, and while TL looks like a phenom, he'll have Brian Schottenheimer as passing game coordinator, correct? oof. that could sink him faster than an ACL tear. 

IF I had to pick between TL and Burrow, I'm going TL - easier division, especially with the Colts taking a considerable hit at QB ( and I wasn't a fan of Wentz to begin with). Houston stinks, Titans are up-n-down. The afc north is brutally tough, and Cleveland is no longer a pushover, they have lots of young talent, they're going to be good for years to come. 

Unfortunately Herbert is rostered already, as are all the top QBs. If it helps for context, as mentioned it’s a superflex league and I have Allen as my QB1. One of these guys are the best option for my QB2.

And good point about Schottenheimer - that's not a positive thing. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Unfortunately Herbert is rostered already, as are all the top QBs. If it helps for context, as mentioned it’s a superflex league and I have Allen as my QB1. One of these guys are the best option for my QB2.

I'm in something similar, but with Lamar as my QB1.  I was leaning more for TL, but Joe is starting to grow on me. Adding Chase might be the difference maker.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I know the discussion has been on SuperFlex but this is a really good debate for 1-QB Redrafts as well.

I love waiting on QB until the 9th/10th/11th round. If 10 teams have taken QBs and Stafford-Tannehill-Burrow-Lawrence (QBs 11-14) are still there I’ll keep stocking RB/WR depth. Feels great when I’ve built a strong team with depth and potentially a QB5 (MS/RT.) But If some moron starts drafting QB2s and I end up with TL I feel kind of sick. Just dint trust the coaching staff and as others have said their talented WR corps is not on the same level as Higgins-Chase-Boyd.

It’s so tempting with Burrow. We’ve seen some incredible Y2 QB breakouts the last few years. But then I realize how good the HC/staffs were for those guys, and looking at Zach Taylor I don’t feel so warm and fuzzy.

Burrow did not have great deep ball stats and his overall production was meh. But his tape is encouraging. Also, he completed only 1 of his first 19 throws over 20 yards last year, which skews a lot of his advanced stats. Definitely grew as he got more game experience.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would prefer Burrow for this season mostly because there is too much unknown for Jacksonville.

I do think both QB will be great so it's more of a toss up long term.

Maybe Lawrence and the Jaguars do really well right away but I'm not really expecting that.

 

[Ilov80s]

Redraft: Burrow because of the weapons and how pass heavy the current coach is. 

Dynasty: Lawrence is more talented IMO, Burrow's arm looked very average and there were some numbers I've heard tossed around on podcasts indicating he actually wasn't too good throwing the ball last year. It is close though. 

 

[Jayded]

I think the best point only one person mentioned thus far is division - for both redraft and dynasty. Watson played on an awful Texans team but still put up amazing numbers partly because he plays in the AFC South. This year the South will have an awful Houston and now an Indianapolis team without their intended QB1 for some time. Until the division can show a few years of strength, it's still considerably weaker than going up against Baltimore/Cleveland/Pittsburgh multiple times per year.

Because it's close, I go with Lawrence because he should have the easier path to fantasy points, but I do think they are close and will remain close (within 2-3 spots by EOY most years) so you really can't go wrong with either IMO.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Last season, Minshew was a popular "wait on QB" pick and Burrow was considered risky with a poor team and staff. I was passing on Minshew and picking up Burrow instead, the "draft analyzers" would trash my QB spot, draft after draft. 

This year, the wait on QB thing is not as popular and much less discussed. I like Burrow and I agree that he has better situation as per his offensive weapons. However, I think TL is a better player with a decent amount of talent around him and he plays Houston week 1! Trying to trade for him after week 1 might prove difficult. 

I like both players, but for full disclosure I have taken TL in 3 out 4 redrafts so far this year. 

 

[zamboni]

Good thoughts so far. The key things I am grappling with are:

1) Mobility: QB rushing points have become so critical, as evidenced by the top QBs. Have to expect that Burrow’s mobility will be limited in the short term, but does it also change the way plays longer term? We saw with Wentz (who obviously has other issues) that he become more of a pocket passer after his ACL.

2) Surrounding weapons: Burrow has them in spades, but not like Lawrence’s are slouches.

3) Schedule: on paper, it looks like Lawrence’s division is much easier than Burrow’s, but games aren’t played on paper and sometimes things work out differently than expected. Plus, things can and do change pretty quickly.

4) Coaching: Burrow seems to have a pass-oriented competent staff. With Lawrence, he’s going to learn under the guise of Meyer and Schottenheimer. Will they screw him up?

Bottom line: leaning towards Burrow right now, but I’ll probably change my mind a million times before my early September draft.

 

[Keith1]

 but I’ll probably change my mind a million times before my early September draft.

Nice to know I am not the only person who will do that. LOL.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Nice to know I am not the only person who will do that. LOL.

Old school reference but pencil > pen.

 

[Teezee]

Burrow by a mile.

 

[zamboni]

Burrow by a mile.

Seems a bit extreme - why so?