Buy Low/Sell High Discussion (1 Viewer)

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm in the group that sees Norwood being limited by his lack of bulk, especially in his legs. I just don't see how he can physically take the pounding if he had more than 10-12 touches per game. I also think his production would drop significantly if he had more touches. I can't see him as anything above a mid RB4 in the future.

 

[The Man With No Name]

.....I don't think he has much upside at RB40. Sure, he'd be a better FF player if he got 250 touches, but where are those touches going to come from? The Falcons are paying Michael Turner $15 million in guaranteed money. He's their horse. Norwood will have the same role he's had the last two years and I don't see any reason to expect a team to ever expand that role. ....

Per KFFL:

Falcons | Norwood's role could expandFri, 6 Jun 2008 10:57:27 -0700Steve Wyche, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons RB Jerious Norwood's role could increase this season. Norwood said he could line up at running back or any of the receiver spots, in a scheme that is based on creating favorable matchups.

Same thing was said last offseason. I would like to see it happen though.

 

[Timberlend]

terrific article!

Thanks so much for taking the time to share your insights.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Roethlisberger is not an elite fantasy QB, but he is a QB who should be a mid to low QB1 for the next 10 years and I'd be satisfied having him if I did not have a stud. I definitely would not trade down from him to a lesser QB because it's nice having the security of owning a QB who you know will be a starter for his team for 10 years and who should rarely if ever be outside of the top 10 QBs.

 

[DenverBroncos]

I think some of the best buy lows in any given year are the older WRs. Everyone wants the new shiny toy, but the old dull sun beaten ones still work just fine for a low cost. WRs like Driver, Coles, Bruce, Galloway...and others...have value even in a dynasty if you can win now.

I completely agree. Guys like that are that are undervalued every year, and if you own them you wont be able to get a fair exchange if you try to move them.

Ditto, give me Driver, Galloway or Derrick Mason over the likes of overrated players like Lee Evans, Mark Clayton, Kevin Curtis, etc. anyday.

 

[EBF]

Regarding Ben, I think people have been underestimating his FF potential since his rookie season. When he had a great rookie year, people said he was just a game manager like Troy Aikman. Now that he's had a good FF season, people are saying he's going to regress. I can see where they're coming from given that the majority of his value was due to a possibly flukish high number of TD passes. However, I still think Ben is a great dynasty FF option for two main reasons:

1. Stability - He's one of the best QB's in the NFL. Barring catastrophic injury, I would expect that to continue for 5-10 years. So even if he doesn't improve as an FF QB, you can plug him into your lineup and expect a competitive score for the next half decade.

2. Upside - This is where I really disagree with a lot of people. I don't think 2007 was anywhere near Ben's ceiling. Yes, he set a career high in TD passes, but he only threw the ball 404 times (compared to 520 for Romo, 575 for Palmer, 578 for Brady, and 652 for Brees). What happens if he throws the ball 500 times? He has QB1 potential. You can argue that the Steelers are a run-first offense, but I think the Mendenhall pick says more about FWP than Ben. And don't forget that Pittsburgh drafted Heath Miller and Santonio Holmes in consecutive first rounds, and just recently selected Limas Sweed in the second. They're not neglecting the passing game by any means. Roethlisberger is the centerpiece of their offense and he'll be given plenty of chances to make plays.

The past few years of FF have given us some monster seasons. I'm talking about Manning in 2004, Alexander in 2005, Tomlinson in 2006, Brady in 2007, and Moss in 2007. These guys were eastablish NFL superstars whose situations perfectly aligned to yield a magical year that lifted many of their FF owners to championships. Roethlisberger is also an established superstar talent and I believe he's capable of the same type of monster career year if his situation should ever align properly.

 

[EBF]

.....I don't think he has much upside at RB40. Sure, he'd be a better FF player if he got 250 touches, but where are those touches going to come from? The Falcons are paying Michael Turner $15 million in guaranteed money. He's their horse. Norwood will have the same role he's had the last two years and I don't see any reason to expect a team to ever expand that role. ....

Per KFFL:

Falcons | Norwood's role could expandFri, 6 Jun 2008 10:57:27 -0700Steve Wyche, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons RB Jerious Norwood's role could increase this season. Norwood said he could line up at running back or any of the receiver spots, in a scheme that is based on creating favorable matchups.

Don't get me wrong, I like his talent. He's lightning in a bottle. Extremely fast and explosive. I just think people expecting MJD or better type numbers don't really understand what type of back Norwood is. He's purely a change of pace guy IMO.

 

[FUBAR]

I think some of the best buy lows in any given year are the older WRs. Everyone wants the new shiny toy, but the old dull sun beaten ones still work just fine for a low cost. WRs like Driver, Coles, Bruce, Galloway...and others...have value even in a dynasty if you can win now.

I completely agree. Guys like that are that are undervalued every year, and if you own them you wont be able to get a fair exchange if you try to move them.

Ditto, give me Driver, Galloway or Derrick Mason over the likes of overrated players like Lee Evans, Mark Clayton, Kevin Curtis, etc. anyday.

I don't completely disagree, but the benefit of guys like Curtis or Evans is they have the potential to greatly outplay their draft slot. Curtis is currently the 32nd WR drafted, but was the 17th WR last year, with little difference on the roster now. Galloway is drafted around the same spot, but was #21 last year. He turns 37 this year, I don't like his chances to produce better than Curtis. Driver is the 26th WR drafted and slipped to 30th last year. Now he loses Favre and the team has Jennings, Jones, and Nelson. I don't like his odds of outproducing his ADP.Mason gets a 1st year starter (probably, either Flacco or Smith. I think he'll exceed his ADP of #38, but he's at best a mid tier WR2, and I doubt he does better than a decent WR3. In deep leagues, I'll certainly take the aging vets as others take the new kid, but in smaller leagues, where you win by getting studs - and therefore potential studs are worth more than ok WR2/3s, I'm probably not taking these elderly folk.ETA: if you're playing PPR, guys like Mason and Driver obviously get a nice bump, and I'd draft them earlier.

 

[Donnybrook]

.....I don't think he has much upside at RB40. Sure, he'd be a better FF player if he got 250 touches, but where are those touches going to come from? The Falcons are paying Michael Turner $15 million in guaranteed money. He's their horse. Norwood will have the same role he's had the last two years and I don't see any reason to expect a team to ever expand that role. ....

Per KFFL:

Falcons | Norwood's role could expandFri, 6 Jun 2008 10:57:27 -0700Steve Wyche, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons RB Jerious Norwood's role could increase this season. Norwood said he could line up at running back or any of the receiver spots, in a scheme that is based on creating favorable matchups.

Don't get me wrong, I like his talent. He's lightning in a bottle. Extremely fast and explosive. I just think people expecting MJD or better type numbers don't really understand what type of back Norwood is. He's purely a change of pace guy IMO.

If people were realistically expecting MJD type numbers they would be drafting him in the 1st round of dynasty drafts. It's not happening. I still think Norwood even as a change of pace guy is a great late round pick in dynasty. You want to point to his BMI and say he doesn't fit the mold of every down back that's fine. You can also point to Michael Turners BMI and say most players that have had BMI that high have been complete busts. Jerome Bettis was one of the exceptions.

 

[LBH]

Buy lowQB-Schaub, RiversRB-J.Stewart, T.JonesWR- R.White, N.Burleson, L.Coles

WTF!! He is the ultimate sell high and I sure wish I was in your fantasy leagues. 1) quite funny; 2) quite desperate and 3) extremely amateur fantasy football move. I do agree with Jonathan Stewart (wish I owned him).

I wish you were too! Glad you got one right with your opinion on Stewart, nice job

 

[LBH]

Buy low

QB-Schaub, Rivers

RB-J.Stewart, T.Jones

WR- R.White, N.Burleson, L.Coles

Who the heck buys Thomas Jones low in a dynasty league. He has one year left as a mediocre RB2 at best. Definetly not the definition of buy low.And Roddy White is the most perfect example of a Sell High candidate then I've ever seen. By your "buy low" expectations you think he's going to finish in the top 8 or something. WTF!! He is the ultimate sell high and I sure wish I was in your fantasy leagues.

Coles is also a sell high candidate. He has decent PPR stats but he is becoming a picture of inconsistency with numerous injuries and uncertainty at the QB positions.

I have a feeling you own all these guys and are trying to up their value which is 1) quite funny; 2) quite desperate and 3) extremely amateur fantasy football move. I do agree with Jonathan Stewart (wish I owned him).

Coles was hurt and missed 5 games last season. But in his previous 6 seasons, he did not miss a game, so the "numerous injuries" comment is misleading. I also personally find the bolded part of your post to be a completely ridiculous statement. Anyone who knows LBH knows he is a man of integrity. Many in the shark pool also play in several leagues with him and know for a fact that your comment is 100% untrue. It's fine to disagree with someone, but there is no need for a comment like the one you made unless you can prove it with facts.

fixed, and thanks!

 

[SSOG]

.....I don't think he has much upside at RB40. Sure, he'd be a better FF player if he got 250 touches, but where are those touches going to come from? The Falcons are paying Michael Turner $15 million in guaranteed money. He's their horse. Norwood will have the same role he's had the last two years and I don't see any reason to expect a team to ever expand that role. ....

Per KFFL:

Falcons | Norwood's role could expandFri, 6 Jun 2008 10:57:27 -0700Steve Wyche, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons RB Jerious Norwood's role could increase this season. Norwood said he could line up at running back or any of the receiver spots, in a scheme that is based on creating favorable matchups.

Don't get me wrong, I like his talent. He's lightning in a bottle. Extremely fast and explosive. I just think people expecting MJD or better type numbers don't really understand what type of back Norwood is. He's purely a change of pace guy IMO.

I never said I was expecting MJD or better type numbers. I don't think Norwood is in Jones-Drew's stratosphere. What I *DID* say was that I expect better numbers out of Norwood than I do out of Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Fred Taylor, Deuce McAllister, or Justin Fargas- the guys he's being ranked around. 12 touches a game at 6 yards per touch gives 1152 yards per season (without going over 200 touches). I think that's a perfectly attainable goal for Norwood, and it doesn't even represent his upside. I think Norwood is a quality RB3 candidate who is currently being valued as a low RB4, which to me represents value.To pull up the comparison I used earlier in this thread... Jerious Norwood is 6'0", 205 pounds. Felix Jones is 6'0", 200 pounds (5 pounds lighter at the same height). Both guys are splitting time with highly regarded RBs who have spectacular per-play numbers but no body of evidence that they can carry a full load. Both of those RBs just got comparable contracts this offseason. Felix Jones has never played a single down in the NFL, while Jerious Norwood is the only back in NFL history with 200+ carries and a 6+ ypc career average. Despite all of this, Felix Jones is ranked 8 spots higher than Jerious Norwood in FBG's consensus dynasty rankings. I don't get that- I think it's just another case of the veteran being undervalued (just like second year WRs are almost always undervalued with respect to the rookie WR class).

 

[tribecalledjeff]

.....I don't think he has much upside at RB40. Sure, he'd be a better FF player if he got 250 touches, but where are those touches going to come from? The Falcons are paying Michael Turner $15 million in guaranteed money. He's their horse. Norwood will have the same role he's had the last two years and I don't see any reason to expect a team to ever expand that role. ....

Per KFFL:

Falcons | Norwood's role could expandFri, 6 Jun 2008 10:57:27 -0700Steve Wyche, of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, reports Atlanta Falcons RB Jerious Norwood's role could increase this season. Norwood said he could line up at running back or any of the receiver spots, in a scheme that is based on creating favorable matchups.

Don't get me wrong, I like his talent. He's lightning in a bottle. Extremely fast and explosive. I just think people expecting MJD or better type numbers don't really understand what type of back Norwood is. He's purely a change of pace guy IMO.

I never said I was expecting MJD or better type numbers. I don't think Norwood is in Jones-Drew's stratosphere. What I *DID* say was that I expect better numbers out of Norwood than I do out of Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Fred Taylor, Deuce McAllister, or Justin Fargas- the guys he's being ranked around. 12 touches a game at 6 yards per touch gives 1152 yards per season (without going over 200 touches). I think that's a perfectly attainable goal for Norwood, and it doesn't even represent his upside. I think Norwood is a quality RB3 candidate who is currently being valued as a low RB4, which to me represents value.To pull up the comparison I used earlier in this thread... Jerious Norwood is 6'0", 205 pounds. Felix Jones is 6'0", 200 pounds (5 pounds lighter at the same height). Both guys are splitting time with highly regarded RBs who have spectacular per-play numbers but no body of evidence that they can carry a full load. Both of those RBs just got comparable contracts this offseason. Felix Jones has never played a single down in the NFL, while Jerious Norwood is the only back in NFL history with 200+ carries and a 6+ ypc career average. Despite all of this, Felix Jones is ranked 8 spots higher than Jerious Norwood in FBG's consensus dynasty rankings. I don't get that- I think it's just another case of the veteran being undervalued (just like second year WRs are almost always undervalued with respect to the rookie WR class).

Being a backup RB in Dallas where they have shown they like to split the load >> Being a backup RB in Atlanta where they are the suck.

 

[Duke1948]

I think some of the best buy lows in any given year are the older WRs. Everyone wants the new shiny toy, but the old dull sun beaten ones still work just fine for a low cost. WRs like Driver, Coles, Bruce, Galloway...and others...have value even in a dynasty if you can win now.

absolutely love those "older" WRs...they are money in the bank, got Mason last year as a throw in in a trade.....top 20. just finished a zealot startup draft got Mason in the 27th round. all because "Everyone wants the new shiny toy".

 

[EBF]

To pull up the comparison I used earlier in this thread... Jerious Norwood is 6'0", 205 pounds. Felix Jones is 6'0", 200 pounds (5 pounds lighter at the same height). Both guys are splitting time with highly regarded RBs who have spectacular per-play numbers but no body of evidence that they can carry a full load. Both of those RBs just got comparable contracts this offseason. Felix Jones has never played a single down in the NFL, while Jerious Norwood is the only back in NFL history with 200+ carries and a 6+ ypc career average. Despite all of this, Felix Jones is ranked 8 spots higher than Jerious Norwood in FBG's consensus dynasty rankings. I don't get that- I think it's just another case of the veteran being undervalued (just like second year WRs are almost always undervalued with respect to the rookie WR class).

Felix Jones is not 6 feet tall. I keep having to correct this number because people keep posting it. He's 5'10.1" and 207 pounds for a BMI of 29.6. That's slightly less than the average top 30 RB, but not by a wide margin. Norwood is 5'11.5" and 210 pounds for a BMI of 28.9. There are only three top 30 backs with BMI's lower than Norwood's: Peterson, Bush, and Dunn. All three of those guys were top 15 picks and I'd argue that all of them are built stockier despite what the BMI might say. Norwood is a lot like McFadden IMO. A good runner trapped in a beanstalk body.I like Felix more than Norwood because I think he has more potential to be a three down back.

 

[msommer]

Funny, Four of the QBs you mention have graced my roster in my main league this off season a fifth (Warner) is on there as well, but I had to let Brady go (the price got too high).

Unfortunately one of the ones that remain is one of your sell highs...

ETA: none of the RBs in either category though...

 

[FUBAR]

I think some of the best buy lows in any given year are the older WRs. Everyone wants the new shiny toy, but the old dull sun beaten ones still work just fine for a low cost. WRs like Driver, Coles, Bruce, Galloway...and others...have value even in a dynasty if you can win now.

absolutely love those "older" WRs...they are money in the bank, got Mason last year as a throw in in a trade.....top 20. just finished a zealot startup draft got Mason in the 27th round. all because "Everyone wants the new shiny toy".

Ok, if that's his value, you have to take him. However, why didn't you take him before the 27th?

 

[Duke1948]

I think some of the best buy lows in any given year are the older WRs. Everyone wants the new shiny toy, but the old dull sun beaten ones still work just fine for a low cost. WRs like Driver, Coles, Bruce, Galloway...and others...have value even in a dynasty if you can win now.

absolutely love those "older" WRs...they are money in the bank, got Mason last year as a throw in in a trade.....top 20. just finished a zealot startup draft got Mason in the 27th round. all because "Everyone wants the new shiny toy".

Ok, if that's his value, you have to take him. However, why didn't you take him before the 27th?

had more pressing needs than a 6th WR, actually thought about taking him a round or 2 earlier but like i said had other fish to catch.

 

[TheGooRoo]

Chad Johnson, if I'm right about how this will go, is a GREAT buy low right now.

FYI, I just traded Chad Johnson for MJD in a redraft.

 

[JPeso]

Chad Johnson, if I'm right about how this will go, is a GREAT buy low right now.

FYI, I just traded Chad Johnson for MJD in a redraft.

In a redraft I'd rather Chad.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'm amazed at how many people are writing Ryan Grant off. He wouldn't be as good on another team but fit MM's blocking scheme and offense perfectly. We'll see come week 8 or so.

I really like Grant - far from writing him off - but we've seen pretty consistently that very few RBs live up to their expected value when they have that out of nowhere sick first (or half) season out of the gate (Exhibit A: Julius Jones). I certainly dont advocate selling Grant to the highest bidder, just seeing if you can turn him into a real proven young stud by adding some modest value to your side of the deal.

 

[Tanner9919]

Good people of FBG,

I have started my annual offseason buy low/sell high series:

QB

RB

WR and TE to come in the next two weeks.

I have started this thread for further discussion of players mentioned (and not mentioned) - hope y'all enjoy.

Bloom, good stuff !I disagree on a few..

Your perception about Derrick Anderson's ability to get the ball to his 'big targets' isn't something that goes away in one season, might be correct. But his ability to throw INTS at an alarming rate won't disappear overnight, either..

Buy low on Moe Morris? 'cmon now..and why are you quoting his 2006 #'s , don't you care to look at his 2007 stats?

week 10, 28-87 vs SF

week 14 , 13-36 vs Az.

week 16, 15-40 vs Balt

sure he had some decent outings, yet not one 100+ yard game..

and exactly when was the last time Holmgren ever used RBBC?! NEVER. Not a chance Seattle turns to a RBBC this season,either..Thomas Jones was a bust until he got out of Az, and then turned himself into a very good RB with a lot of fantasy value. Maybe same is true for Julius Jones.

Michael Bush is a buy low candidate? how is he ever going to see the field when a) he can't stay healthy, b) Fargas has proven himself as a valuable backup player, c) ROY-in-waiting McFadden is on the roster and is the de facto starter in Oakland from day 1..?

Warrick Dunn's $6 mil 2 year deal is really a one-year stop-gap deal..$3 mill isn't exactly going to break their salary cap..he's an insurance policy, nothing more..

as for Aaron Rogers, I understand the Brohm stuff, but, Big Ben aside, name the last rookie QB who performed well in his first season in the NFL and his first season as starter( Marino). Elway, both Mannings stunk up the joint - no one other than Big Ben and Marino were quality starters in their rookie seasons..Also, if Brohm was SO good, why'd he slip so far in the NFL draft this April?!

Some other Sell High players you should have added include one-hit wonder David Garrard, overpriced Javon Walker, 'most potential yet most often hurt' Andre Johnson, 'Hit-n-run' Marshawn Lynch, Alex 'bust' Smith, Reggie Bush, Wes Welker ( Not a chance he grabs 100 balls this season!), McGahee ( might have a career year, or Rice will start eating into his production, by 2009, its Rice's job, either way), Gore ( too many injuries, Martz doesn't like calling'run' plays, and Alex Smith is learning yet another offense in a year where he could be embroiled in a QB controversy), Heap

buy low: Fred Taylor ( everyone loves MJD, and Taylor is just better and that team will always rely on the running game), Ginn, Steve Smith (NYG), Owen Daniels

 

[FUBAR]

Chad Johnson, if I'm right about how this will go, is a GREAT buy low right now.

FYI, I just traded Chad Johnson for MJD in a redraft.

In a redraft I'd rather Chad.

Really? I'm not so sure.Plus, although I realize I'm being too sensitive here, blanket statements like this are a pet peeve of mine. CJ/MJD is close enough that lineups make a huge difference. If you're starting 3 RBs and less than 6 WRs, in a 12 team league or more, I'll take MJD easily.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

WR

TEs

 

[EBF]

I like a lot of these calls. I'm kicking myself for dropping Burleson in a dynasty last season. I think he could have a very productive year. I'm also fairly high on Laurent Robinson. I was a fan of his when he was entering the league and I've seen nothing to discourage me. He has a chance to eventually be better than White and I agree that we'll see a bump from his 2007 numbers. David Patten isn't a world beater, but he's actually a pretty good football player. It will be interesting to see if Meachem can push him aside.

TO and TJ Houshmandzadeh are also at the top of my sell high list. They're extremely overrated in dynasty leagues. Owens is old enough to break down at any moment and Housh is merely a Keenan McCardell type whose friendly system inflates his numbers.

I disagree on a few of these calls though. People on FBG have always loved Steve Smith, but when you add up all the injuries and inconsistency, he's only put together one truly elite complete season. He's a nice player, but I don't view him as a buy low. All of the guys ranked in the same general range for dynasty leagues offer the same kind of risk/reward combination.

I just read a very positive blurb on DeSean Jackson and I've also heard good things about Reggie Williams. I don't see Reggie as a sell high since he doesn't have much trade value and he's finally shown signs of promise. I actually think you could argue that he's a buy low candidate right now. I think Roy Williams was a sell high last year, but his value has fallen to the point where he seems like a decent pickup at his cost. I'm lukewarm on Roddy White, but he's ranked quite low for a guy coming of a breakout year. I don't think his targets were the sole cause of his success. If I remember correctly, he put up pretty good yardage compared to other players who had a similar number of targets last season. And that was with Harrington and Redman at the helm. So while I'm not rushing out to acquire him, I don't necessarily think he's overrated right now.

Finally, I'm not a big Zach Miller fan. I've been following this guy for a long time. He was the #1 TE recruit in the nation coming out of high school and I owned him in my college dynasty league for his entire ASU career. He's a solid player, but a borderline athlete at the NFL level. I don't think he belongs any higher in the rankings than he is right now and I think some of the guys below him offer better upside. I know I would much rather have Dustin Keller, who's ranked lower and has a higher ceiling IMO.

 

[gorf]

good stuff, bloom.

agree on most of these calls. disagree on greg olsen. who else is going to catch balls in chicago?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I like a lot of these calls. I'm kicking myself for dropping Burleson in a dynasty last season. I think he could have a very productive year. I'm also fairly high on Laurent Robinson. I was a fan of his when he was entering the league and I've seen nothing to discourage me. He has a chance to eventually be better than White and I agree that we'll see a bump from his 2007 numbers. David Patten isn't a world beater, but he's actually a pretty good football player. It will be interesting to see if Meachem can push him aside. TO and TJ Houshmandzadeh are also at the top of my sell high list. They're extremely overrated in dynasty leagues. Owens is old enough to break down at any moment and Housh is merely a Keenan McCardell type whose friendly system inflates his numbers. I disagree on a few of these calls though. People on FBG have always loved Steve Smith, but when you add up all the injuries and inconsistency, he's only put together one truly elite complete season. He's a nice player, but I don't view him as a buy low. All of the guys ranked in the same general range for dynasty leagues offer the same kind of risk/reward combination. I just read a very positive blurb on DeSean Jackson and I've also heard good things about Reggie Williams. I don't see Reggie as a sell high since he doesn't have much trade value and he's finally shown signs of promise. I actually think you could argue that he's a buy low candidate right now. I think Roy Williams was a sell high last year, but his value has fallen to the point where he seems like a decent pickup at his cost. I'm lukewarm on Roddy White, but he's ranked quite low for a guy coming of a breakout year. I don't think his targets were the sole cause of his success. If I remember correctly, he put up pretty good yardage compared to other players who had a similar number of targets last season. And that was with Harrington and Redman at the helm. So while I'm not rushing out to acquire him, I don't necessarily think he's overrated right now.Finally, I'm not a big Zach Miller fan. I've been following this guy for a long time. He was the #1 TE recruit in the nation coming out of high school and I owned him in my college dynasty league for his entire ASU career. He's a solid player, but a borderline athlete at the NFL level. I don't think he belongs any higher in the rankings than he is right now and I think some of the guys below him offer better upside. I know I would much rather have Dustin Keller, who's ranked lower and has a higher ceiling IMO.

Always very interested to hear your thoughts EBF - your eye for talent is one of the best on the board.I've made my case for Smith - he WAS elite last year, except when Carr was in. Carr is a Giant, and soon will be an infomercial host or greeter at a Wal-Mart, so that is no longer a factor.I've read the same stuff on Williams, you're probably right that he doesn't have much trade value, but I still think his value has topped out coming off a 10 TD season. I don't think White is overrated as much as I think the perceived gap between him and young WRs who can become truly elite in fantasy circles is as small as its going to be for a while.Miller is limited athletically, no way around that (its why he was a high 2nd instead of a first round pick - see also: Forte, Matt), but it just means he'll have 80-850 instead of 80-1050. Either way, his role is going to increase greatly this year, and I think he has a real shot to be the most targeted passcatcher in Oakland this year.

 

[EBF]

I like a lot of these calls. I'm kicking myself for dropping Burleson in a dynasty last season. I think he could have a very productive year. I'm also fairly high on Laurent Robinson. I was a fan of his when he was entering the league and I've seen nothing to discourage me. He has a chance to eventually be better than White and I agree that we'll see a bump from his 2007 numbers. David Patten isn't a world beater, but he's actually a pretty good football player. It will be interesting to see if Meachem can push him aside. TO and TJ Houshmandzadeh are also at the top of my sell high list. They're extremely overrated in dynasty leagues. Owens is old enough to break down at any moment and Housh is merely a Keenan McCardell type whose friendly system inflates his numbers. I disagree on a few of these calls though. People on FBG have always loved Steve Smith, but when you add up all the injuries and inconsistency, he's only put together one truly elite complete season. He's a nice player, but I don't view him as a buy low. All of the guys ranked in the same general range for dynasty leagues offer the same kind of risk/reward combination. I just read a very positive blurb on DeSean Jackson and I've also heard good things about Reggie Williams. I don't see Reggie as a sell high since he doesn't have much trade value and he's finally shown signs of promise. I actually think you could argue that he's a buy low candidate right now. I think Roy Williams was a sell high last year, but his value has fallen to the point where he seems like a decent pickup at his cost. I'm lukewarm on Roddy White, but he's ranked quite low for a guy coming of a breakout year. I don't think his targets were the sole cause of his success. If I remember correctly, he put up pretty good yardage compared to other players who had a similar number of targets last season. And that was with Harrington and Redman at the helm. So while I'm not rushing out to acquire him, I don't necessarily think he's overrated right now.Finally, I'm not a big Zach Miller fan. I've been following this guy for a long time. He was the #1 TE recruit in the nation coming out of high school and I owned him in my college dynasty league for his entire ASU career. He's a solid player, but a borderline athlete at the NFL level. I don't think he belongs any higher in the rankings than he is right now and I think some of the guys below him offer better upside. I know I would much rather have Dustin Keller, who's ranked lower and has a higher ceiling IMO.

Always very interested to hear your thoughts EBF - your eye for talent is one of the best on the board.I've made my case for Smith - he WAS elite last year, except when Carr was in. Carr is a Giant, and soon will be an infomercial host or greeter at a Wal-Mart, so that is no longer a factor.I've read the same stuff on Williams, you're probably right that he doesn't have much trade value, but I still think his value has topped out coming off a 10 TD season. I don't think White is overrated as much as I think the perceived game between him and young WRs who can become truly elite in fantasy circles is as small as its going to be for a while.Miller is limited athletically, no way around that (its why he was a high 2nd instead of a first round pick - see also: Forte, Matt), but it just means he'll have 80-850 instead of 80-1050. Either way, his role is going to increase greatly this year, and I think he has a real shot to be the most targeted passcatcher in Oakland this year.

Miller could be decent. For all his shortcomings, he's always been productive. Frank Wycheck might be a decent best case scenario for him. Steve Smith is a guy I've always felt was a little overrated. Aside from that one monster year, he's been good but not necessarily great. I just don't see anything about him that distinguishes him from guys like Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, and Marques Colston.

 

[relic]

buy low on Jason Whitten? where?

Agree that he is a player that most should be seeking but I think its a year to late to be buying low.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

buy low on Jason Whitten? where?Agree that he is a player that most should be seeking but I think its a year to late to be buying low.

For one, I think he is still going too low in redrafts and initial dynasty drafts - the other instance is one I cited in the article. If most of the FBG staffers have Gates over Witten, that tells me that his price is more reasonable in a Gates/Winslow deal than you'd think. You might be able to get that swap as part of a different deal. Mainly I just want to point out that I think he deserves the "undisputed #1 fantasy TE" title, but I don't think the wider perception of his value has caught up to that reality yet.

 

[FUBAR]

I've made my case for Smith - he WAS elite last year, except when Carr was in. Carr is a Giant, and soon will be an infomercial host or greeter at a Wal-Mart, so that is no longer a factor.

Edit that to include Vinny. Which to me was somewhat surprising. He did VERY well with Delhomme and even did well with Moore. Coincidently, those are the two possible starters this year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I've made my case for Smith - he WAS elite last year, except when Carr was in. Carr is a Giant, and soon will be an infomercial host or greeter at a Wal-Mart, so that is no longer a factor.

Edit that to include Vinny. Which to me was somewhat surprising. He did VERY well with Delhomme and even did well with Moore. Coincidently, those are the two possible starters this year.

He still averaged about 7/75 when Vinny was the QB for the whole game, but yeah it just underscores how much the season was a nightmare in the passing game, and Smith was still a 1000 yard receiver and WR1 in PPR leagues.

 

[FUBAR]

I've made my case for Smith - he WAS elite last year, except when Carr was in. Carr is a Giant, and soon will be an infomercial host or greeter at a Wal-Mart, so that is no longer a factor.

Edit that to include Vinny. Which to me was somewhat surprising. He did VERY well with Delhomme and even did well with Moore. Coincidently, those are the two possible starters this year.

He still averaged about 7/75 when Vinny was the QB for the whole game, but yeah it just underscores how much the season was a nightmare in the passing game, and Smith was still a 1000 yard receiver and WR1 in PPR leagues.

Week 6 he was elite, but the other 5 games he was 2/18, 5/61, 8/64, and 6/44 with no TDs. Not exactly stats you want from your WR1. I agree with your point though, if people simply look at last year and draft without looking deeper, he'll be a steal.