Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

I think that Calvin Johnson is one of those guys where his perceived ability and dynasty ranking leads to a misplaced redraft ranking. Consider that he has had three NFL seasons with the following statistics:07 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% for 756 yards 15.8 ypc 4 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 3508 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% for 1331 yards 17.1 ypc 12 TDs & FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 309 14 gms 137 targets 73 catches 53.3% for 984 yards 14.7 ypc 5 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 21Compare the above stats with his current ADP of WR5 and 17 overall. They just don't match up. I really think that Calvin Johnson is an exciting player and capable of extraordinary production, but to me he is just not worth the risk as the WR5.He has several positive factors entering 2010, including the same coaching staff and QB as last year for the first time in his career. Other positives are the additions to the Lions offense, including Best, Burleson, and Scheffler. He should find a little more space on the field this year and Stafford should see improvement in his second year under center. He has the capability of being the top fantasy WR, but his past performances just don't seem to place him as a top five WR in redraft.Negative factors include the 52% career catch percentage, the missed games, and the game to game inconsistency. In non-ppr scoring last year, he had eight of 14 games where he scored single digits fantasy points.Calvin Johnson 16 gms 150 targets (9.4 per game) 78 catches 52.0% for 1170 yards 15.0 ypc and 8 TDs

Good stuff.I had no idea his catch percentage was that bad. Wow.

He's also, I believe, 4th in the NFL in dropped passes in the last two years, despite a relatively low number of receptions.Calvin is quickly in danger of becoming what Reggie Bush was a few years ago, in that people are too quick to give Calvin a free pass on everything. Detroit stunk last year, and so did Stafford. But I watched every Detroit game last year and Calvin did his fair share of stinking up the joint as well. He had plenty of dropped passes, and a LOT of other plays where there was only one defender around and that defender was turned around or out of position, and Calvin failed to make a play on the ball. He also came down a few inches out of bounds in the endzone several times last year on plays where it looked like he was going to be able to get his feet down.Obviously that's not necessarily predictive of his future, since he was clearly a stud two years ago and clearly has the innate ability to be a stud going forward. However this notion that Calvin being a poor fantasy player last year was everyone BUT Calvin's fault is silly. Calvin failed to make a lot of plays that a top WR could, or even SHOULD make last year. Plays where the throw was good and plays where these sensationalized triple teams were nowhere around.Calvin is still an elite fantasy player/prospect. But he's a potentially elite player coming off a down year, not a potentially elite player who just got screwed over last year.

 

[baconisgood]

I think that Calvin Johnson is one of those guys where his perceived ability and dynasty ranking leads to a misplaced redraft ranking. Consider that he has had three NFL seasons with the following statistics:07 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% for 756 yards 15.8 ypc 4 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 3508 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% for 1331 yards 17.1 ypc 12 TDs & FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 309 14 gms 137 targets 73 catches 53.3% for 984 yards 14.7 ypc 5 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 21Compare the above stats with his current ADP of WR5 and 17 overall. They just don't match up. I really think that Calvin Johnson is an exciting player and capable of extraordinary production, but to me he is just not worth the risk as the WR5.He has several positive factors entering 2010, including the same coaching staff and QB as last year for the first time in his career. Other positives are the additions to the Lions offense, including Best, Burleson, and Scheffler. He should find a little more space on the field this year and Stafford should see improvement in his second year under center. He has the capability of being the top fantasy WR, but his past performances just don't seem to place him as a top five WR in redraft.Negative factors include the 52% career catch percentage, the missed games, and the game to game inconsistency. In non-ppr scoring last year, he had eight of 14 games where he scored single digits fantasy points.Calvin Johnson 16 gms 150 targets (9.4 per game) 78 catches 52.0% for 1170 yards 15.0 ypc and 8 TDs

Good stuff.I had no idea his catch percentage was that bad. Wow.

The Lions in 08 and 09 had team completion % of 55 and 54%, so I don't think it is quite fair to judge him on his catch % just yet (Kitna's was 64% his rookie season- but as we know he was a rookie and had a bad back).

 

[massraider]

The Lions in 08 and 09 had team completion % of 55 and 54%, so I don't think it is quite fair to judge him on his catch % just yet (Kitna's was 64% his rookie season- but as we know he was a rookie and had a bad back).

"Judging him on his catch percentage"? No. Questioning why it's so low? Sure. We're talking 3 years of history, and this isn't the first good WR on a bad team. A target this size, and a talent like that, I think it's pretty fair to wonder what the problem is. And the team was 54% and 55%? Well, I want more from Megatron, I don't want him dragging the average down.

 

[baconisgood]

The Lions in 08 and 09 had team completion % of 55 and 54%, so I don't think it is quite fair to judge him on his catch % just yet (Kitna's was 64% his rookie season- but as we know he was a rookie and had a bad back).

"Judging him on his catch percentage"? No. Questioning why it's so low? Sure. We're talking 3 years of history, and this isn't the first good WR on a bad team. A target this size, and a talent like that, I think it's pretty fair to wonder what the problem is. And the team was 54% and 55%? Well, I want more from Megatron, I don't want him dragging the average down.

Steve Smith, Roddy White, Ochocinco all had sub 54% catch rates last year. Your catch rate depends on your QBs accuracy, the routes you run, the coverage you see and your hands.

 

[massraider]

The Lions in 08 and 09 had team completion % of 55 and 54%, so I don't think it is quite fair to judge him on his catch % just yet (Kitna's was 64% his rookie season- but as we know he was a rookie and had a bad back).

"Judging him on his catch percentage"? No. Questioning why it's so low? Sure. We're talking 3 years of history, and this isn't the first good WR on a bad team. A target this size, and a talent like that, I think it's pretty fair to wonder what the problem is. And the team was 54% and 55%? Well, I want more from Megatron, I don't want him dragging the average down.

Steve Smith, Roddy White, Ochocinco all had sub 54% catch rates last year. Your catch rate depends on your QBs accuracy, the routes you run, the coverage you see and your hands.

None of that changes my last statement.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

The Lions in 08 and 09 had team completion % of 55 and 54%, so I don't think it is quite fair to judge him on his catch % just yet (Kitna's was 64% his rookie season- but as we know he was a rookie and had a bad back).

"Judging him on his catch percentage"? No. Questioning why it's so low? Sure. We're talking 3 years of history, and this isn't the first good WR on a bad team. A target this size, and a talent like that, I think it's pretty fair to wonder what the problem is. And the team was 54% and 55%? Well, I want more from Megatron, I don't want him dragging the average down.

You do realize that's ridiculous right?A team's catch percentage is hugely influenced by throwing to positions other than receiver. Take a look at unfiltered catch percentage rankings, and you will see a list 15 RBs in the top 20 nearly every year. Why is that? Because those balls are easier to complete. It's that simple. Now take the OPPOSITE of those balls - the ones deep down field, or with heavy coverage in obvious passing situations. Those are the ones Calvin gets.

But back to the numbers. If the team is at 54% and 55%, that INCLUDES all of the passes to backs and TEs, which are raising that average. Which means that the balls they throw to WRs are more than likely worse, and Calvin probably isn't dragging the numbers down at all (even though he would be justified in doing so because of the kinds of balls he is getting even AMONG the WRs).

I understand questioning the numbers, and I'm not letting Calvin completely off the hook. But you do have to put that numbers into SOME kind of perspective considering the historically bad teams/offenses he has been a part of throughout his entire short career.

 

[Mikey16x]

I am avoiding this guy like the plague this year.. killed me the last 2 seasons. No longer will I be riding the Calvin Johnson hype train. If he blows up and catches 800 balls this year with 50 Touchdowns... I'll pat whoever drafted him on the back.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think it's crazy to evaluate a single talent on team completion percentage. Of course it was going to be down with a rookie QB, rookie TE, a team that was always playing from behind by it seems 3 TD's every week. They weren't going to be conservative. They were going to throw that rock up there. But with the addition of Nate Burleson, who thrived back in the days of working agains the Norse division, with a future stud RB in Best, this offense is about to explode. This will be a fun team to watch and Megatron will see his targets only increase. This may be a 7-9 team, but a team that will give up 30 points consistently and will open up the potent offense to keep up with others. This all means a nice bump in value for Calvin. I love the Lions offense this year.

I like 91/1400/10 for him.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I am avoiding this guy like the plague this year.. killed me the last 2 seasons. No longer will I be riding the Calvin Johnson hype train. If he blows up and catches 800 balls this year with 50 Touchdowns... I'll pat whoever drafted him on the back.

Are you really sure he killed you two years ago? Because he put up a 1300 yard 12 touchdown season in 2008. If that was disappointing to you, then perhaps your expectations of wide receiver scoring is unrealistic.

 

[KellysHeroes]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!

If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

 

[pantherclub]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

Totally agree. The stafford factor and crappy offense is too much to ignore. Now at some point in his career he is going to have a monster monster fantasy year and I will fully congratulate the lucky bastage that had the balls to draft him at 2.1 but until then he is too steep for me. Hopefully in my shark league where most of the guys are nuts about stats and proven points I can get him somewhere in the mid 3rd as my WR2. You have the potential to wreck your whole season if you draft him as your #1 as long as Stafford is there.

 

[FavreCo]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!

If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

Totally agree. The stafford factor and crappy offense is too much to ignore. Now at some point in his career he is going to have a monster monster fantasy year and I will fully congratulate the lucky bastage that had the balls to draft him at 2.1 but until then he is too steep for me. Hopefully in my shark league where most of the guys are nuts about stats and proven points I can get him somewhere in the mid 3rd as my WR2. You have the potential to wreck your whole season if you draft him as your #1 as long as Stafford is there.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

With this in mind, how do you explain his 2008 season? This year's Lions have much better offensive skill players than the 2008 team did. Basically, as I asked someone before, why are you (and others) counting last season so heavily and pretty much ignoring 2008?

 

[higgins]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

Totally agree. The stafford factor and crappy offense is too much to ignore. Now at some point in his career he is going to have a monster monster fantasy year and I will fully congratulate the lucky bastage that had the balls to draft him at 2.1 but until then he is too steep for me. Hopefully in my shark league where most of the guys are nuts about stats and proven points I can get him somewhere in the mid 3rd as my WR2. You have the potential to wreck your whole season if you draft him as your #1 as long as Stafford is there.

It looks like you know as much on fantasy football as you do geopolitics....zippo.

 

[KellysHeroes]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!

If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

With this in mind, how do you explain his 2008 season? This year's Lions have much better offensive skill players than the 2008 team did. Basically, as I asked someone before, why are you (and others) counting last season so heavily and pretty much ignoring 2008?

78 Recs on 151 targets... and why count 2009 so much, because he didn't look too impressive. And his Catch ratio is getting worse; 2008 it 51%, 2009 it was 49%.

 

[degenerate]

im just jumpin in here cuz im a lions and a megatron fan, but has any wr had a stud year with a rookie qb on a bad team? (speaking about '09)

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!

If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

With this in mind, how do you explain his 2008 season? This year's Lions have much better offensive skill players than the 2008 team did. Basically, as I asked someone before, why are you (and others) counting last season so heavily and pretty much ignoring 2008?

78 Recs on 151 targets... and why count 2009 so much, because he didn't look too impressive. And his Catch ratio is getting worse; 2008 it 51%, 2009 it was 49%.

He was the 3rd ranked fantasy receiver in 2008. Those 78 receptions on 151 targets got Calvin 1331 yards and 12 TDs. Why would anyone care about his target percentage in that year?As for 2009, he played 10 games with a rookie QB and 6 with Culpepper, who was horrendous. While I do agree that Calvin did not play as well in 2009 as he did in 2008, I think the circumstances and lack of weapons were the biggest reason.

I just don't think counting 2009 and ignoring 2008 makes any sense. Also, the reasons are just as important if not more so than the results when looking forward.

 

[pantherclub]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!

If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

Totally agree. The stafford factor and crappy offense is too much to ignore. Now at some point in his career he is going to have a monster monster fantasy year and I will fully congratulate the lucky bastage that had the balls to draft him at 2.1 but until then he is too steep for me. Hopefully in my shark league where most of the guys are nuts about stats and proven points I can get him somewhere in the mid 3rd as my WR2. You have the potential to wreck your whole season if you draft him as your #1 as long as Stafford is there.

what am I missing here? you dont think stafford will be a bust? Its going to be a couple more years before he is a consistent NFL qb, to think otherwise is just kidding yourself.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

im just jumpin in here cuz im a lions and a megatron fan, but has any wr had a stud year with a rookie qb on a bad team? (speaking about '09)

Good question. I have to think there are quite a few on decent teams, but I really would like to know how many were on bad teams with rookie QBs and a lack of other weapons.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

But once again, you do remember that people said all that stuff didn't matter before last season, right?

 

[LBH]

I still remember his sophmore season where he was studly despite a revolving door at the QB position. If healthy all year i expect a strong season in 2010. The Lions have made some improvements on defense and added some weapons on offense to take a little pressure off Johnson. Stafford has a year behind him, and more time to get in sync with the offense. I like what the Lions are doing as a team and think they will be competetive this year

Calvin- 80 1250 10

 

[Grahamburn]

Keep fighting the good fight in here Anthony.

I'm a Calvin supporter and major believer as well. I also don't understand why the 2008 season, on the worst team in NFL history, is being discounted either.

I'm perfectly comfortable drafting Calvin after Andre, Fitzgerald, Moss, or whomever, and I also have no problem drafting him before those guys. I just like having him on my team.

The optimism that is stemming from the additions the Lions have made is legitimate. Burleson's ability to separate quickly, Best's explosiveness, and the TE combo of Scheffler/Pettigrew gives Detroit some real weapons on the field with Calvin.

There's also the notion that these players can create a few more first downs for the Lions instead of the 2-3 yard run, sack, 3rd down heave to Calvin offensive gameplan the Lions deployed in 2009. It's not just that they'll take pressure off of him or take away coverage. They'll create more opportunities overall for the offense, which of course, creates more opportunities for the #1 receiving option. I'd also like to think that the players added on defense will help cause more possessions for the offense as well.

If Johnson is discounted for being a "risky" player because of injuries, so be it, but I don't feel like he should be downgraded because of the Lions' surrounding cast. 2008 happened, 0-16 happened, and 78 for 1,331 and 12 touchdowns happened. Those numbers, on THAT team, are nothing that should be scoffed at.

A puff piece

"Part of his improved comfort comes from entering his fourth season. He's more mature, but his comfort also comes from spending more time with a talented young quarterback. Johnson said he and Stafford have worked together four times a week since March, building the rapport essential between a quarterback and his primary receiver."

If this team fails it won't be for lack of desire. These guys are hungry and they're tired of losing. 2010 is the year of the Lion. Never, ever, doubt Calvin Johnson.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Here is an item on Bryant Johnson's performance last year. Remember...this was the #2 WR all year.

Link

Bryant Johnson only caught 35 passes for 417 yards and three touchdowns. Worse, opposing defenses didn't fear Bryant Johnson and kept their defensive focus trained on Calvin Johnson.

After catching at least three passes in four of the first five games, Johnson went 10 straight games where he had two catches or less. In the last five games of that stretch, he didn't have more than 18 receiving yards in a single game.

Take note especially of those numbers. This is a starting WR who was single covered virtually all the time. It seems almost impossible to put up numbers that bad with those circumstances. Now think for a minute here...if this is your starting WR and he was that bad and still kept his job, what do you think that says about the other WRs. Yes, the others were just as bad and even worse.

This underscores the problems Calvin had finding room to operate.

 

[dickey moe]

Until that offense gets its act together, he'll continue to remain grossly overrated in dynasty leagues.

 

[KellysHeroes]

There is nothing there to take the pressure off of him... nothing at the over WR positions, a KSmith returning from an ACL w/ a Rookie RB, a starting TE returning from an ACL, a 2nd yr QB returning from injury... my gawd. This might be the season to get Calvin cheap.

Det needs to invest in some other options at WR to get the pressure off. Why they didn't go after Boldin?

75 Recs - 1050 - 7 TDs... about 140 targets

 

[Grahamburn]

Here is an item on Bryant Johnson's performance last year. Remember...this was the #2 WR all year.

Link

Bryant Johnson only caught 35 passes for 417 yards and three touchdowns. Worse, opposing defenses didn't fear Bryant Johnson and kept their defensive focus trained on Calvin Johnson.

After catching at least three passes in four of the first five games, Johnson went 10 straight games where he had two catches or less. In the last five games of that stretch, he didn't have more than 18 receiving yards in a single game.

Take note especially of those numbers. This is a starting WR who was single covered virtually all the time. It seems almost impossible to put up numbers that bad with those circumstances. Now think for a minute here...if this is your starting WR and he was that bad and still kept his job, what do you think that says about the other WRs. Yes, the others were just as bad and even worse.

This underscores the problems Calvin had finding room to operate.

As a comparison, Nate Burleson had 63 catches for 812 yards (basically doubling Bryant's receptions/yardage), and equaled Johnson's TD production with 3. He'll be a nice compliment to Calvin in the short/intermediate passing game.

 

[jude]

70-1100-5

 

[Calvin Johnson]

Megatron will live up to expectations with over 80 catches + double digit TDs

80+-1300+-12+TDs

2nd yr of Stafford and other improvements made on offensive side of the ball will make Detroit resemble real NFL offense

Lions also win more than two games this year

 

[BlueBandit24]

I'm a huge believer in Calvin's talent. I'll probably get back on his bandwagon year after year even if he never attains the consistency needed from an elite receiver. There are two things I'm mildly concerned about moving forward.

1: Injuries - This is pretty minor, as I understand that it comes with the territory in the NFL. But he was hampered by a back injury his rookie year and struggled with the knee last season with both seeming to linger throughout the year. At his size, and with his willingness to go after the ball in traffic, I worry that he might get beat up quite a bit. I'm not going to forecast future injuries though and he has managed to play (I believe) 44 of a possible 48 games in his career, so he's not missing significant chunks of time.

2: Making The Easy Catch: Granted, I don't see every Lions game, but I am in NFC North territory so I see them quite a bit. Calvin's always had the ability to make the highlight-reel catch, but from what I have seen he's had lapses in concentration on some of the easier plays. I'm guessing that will come as he matures.

Those are really the only concerns I have with Calvin moving forward, and both are minor. I really love his talent and love what Detroit has done in the past few off-seasons. I feel this is the year he cements himself as an elite receiver moving forward.

85 receptions, 1349 yards, 10 TD's

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let's look at his 1st 3 seasons.

Year 1: He was hurt when he landed nasty on his back, still managed to place #35 as a rookie. 48/756/4 Tds...his 1st 2 games he posted 4/70/Td, 4/61/Td, what rookie has come out of the box like that?

Year 2: He was top3...let me repeat he was top3. 78/1,331/12Tds and only in his 2nd season, how many WRs can do this? He was almost on the Andre Johnson level here with the difference being that AJ doesn't catch double digit Tds but reels in more receptions.

Year 3: Was hurt and had a rookie throwing him the ball, no OL or defense and they were fresh off an 0-16 seasons. He still ranked 21st for the year with 67/984/5Tds. Bust for where he was drafted but just from a talent and NFL perspective he is the goods. Had he played those other 3 games he would have ended up with probably 80/1100/6Tds which would have put him in the top15 despite all the problems around him.

He's 6 foot 5 and 235 lbs, a total beast to cover. He was one of the best WRs I have ever seen coming out of colllege and has dominated on every level. No one was lined up across from him to even draw any coverage, at least he has Nate now at WR2 and Scheffler added at TE, Best will be more explosive in the back field, Stafford in year 2, better OL, better overall defense, he has to do better. I will say the schedule is tough but that might help as Detroit is not going to win a ton of games, probably 4-5 for the season and they will have to play catch up much of the time. Calvin is not a bargain at his ADP but he is also one of the most talened WRs in the game and those that disagree are simply sour grapes after picking him last year.

Top5 in terms of talent in the league, no question in my mind. 16 games the past 2 seasons of 80+ yds, 17 Tds which is more than a lot of other WRs can boast, 15 games of 5+ reception the last 2 seasons.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Link

Calvin Johnson -- Despite excellent coverage from cornerback Chris Houston throughout camp, Johnson still is pretty much unstoppable. The Lions are going to him a lot in the red zone, and he's coming through almost every time. The best part is that the Lions aren't simply throwing fades to him, they're using him on an assortment of routes so a corner and/or a double team can't anticipate what's coming.

I have been waiting to see something like this (red zone targets) forever and hope it continues when the games start. I was shocked to see how few times the Lions threw to Calvin in the red zone. He is impossible to cover down there.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I was shocked to see how few times the Lions threw to Calvin in the red zone. He is impossible to cover down there.

Calvin was top 5 in RZ targets on a per game basis last year despite the Lions having far less RZ trips than any of the teams of the other top RZ receivers. 20 total RZ targets, 3 RZ TDs.

The Lions had 100+ fewer points than any other team that had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets. Calvin was targeted in the RZ a ridiculous percentage of the time, probably tops in the entire NFL.

I thought it was people just not seeing many Detroit games, but I know Borbely saw them all. People just love Calvin so much they're just seeing what they want to see with him. Nothing is ever Calvin's fault. Rather, it's everyone's fault around him, every time.

Calvin was in a bad situation last year, but Calvin often played poorly himself as well. Does that mean Calvin will be a bust this year or for his career? No, because he was awesome in college and he was awesome in 2008. But let's call this what it is here folks. Calvin had a bad year last year. Not just the Lions, not just Stafford, not just the coaches. Calvin was a bust, not just the Lions.

EDIT: Correction, Denver "only" scored 64 points more than Detroit, and also had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets (Marshall).

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I was shocked to see how few times the Lions threw to Calvin in the red zone. He is impossible to cover down there.

Calvin was top 5 in RZ targets on a per game basis last year despite the Lions having far less RZ trips than any of the teams of the other top RZ receivers. 20 total RZ targets, 3 RZ TDs.

The Lions had 100+ fewer points than any other team that had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets. Calvin was targeted in the RZ a ridiculous percentage of the time, probably tops in the entire NFL.

I thought it was people just not seeing many Detroit games, but I know Borbely saw them all. People just love Calvin so much they're just seeing what they want to see with him. Nothing is ever Calvin's fault. Rather, it's everyone's fault around him, every time.

Calvin was in a bad situation last year, but Calvin often played poorly himself as well. Does that mean Calvin will be a bust this year or for his career? No, because he was awesome in college and he was awesome in 2008. But let's call this what it is here folks. Calvin had a bad year last year. Not just the Lions, not just Stafford, not just the coaches. But Calvin himself played poorly.

EDIT: Correction, Denver "only" scored 64 points more than Detroit, and also had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets (Marshall).

Just goes to show how misleading stats are by themselves because the majority of those so called targets were uncatchable and frankly should not have even been called targets. And only 5 of those targets were inside the 5 yard line.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I was shocked to see how few times the Lions threw to Calvin in the red zone. He is impossible to cover down there.

Calvin was top 5 in RZ targets on a per game basis last year despite the Lions having far less RZ trips than any of the teams of the other top RZ receivers. 20 total RZ targets, 3 RZ TDs.

The Lions had 100+ fewer points than any other team that had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets. Calvin was targeted in the RZ a ridiculous percentage of the time, probably tops in the entire NFL.

I thought it was people just not seeing many Detroit games, but I know Borbely saw them all. People just love Calvin so much they're just seeing what they want to see with him. Nothing is ever Calvin's fault. Rather, it's everyone's fault around him, every time.

Calvin was in a bad situation last year, but Calvin often played poorly himself as well. Does that mean Calvin will be a bust this year or for his career? No, because he was awesome in college and he was awesome in 2008. But let's call this what it is here folks. Calvin had a bad year last year. Not just the Lions, not just Stafford, not just the coaches. But Calvin himself played poorly.

EDIT: Correction, Denver "only" scored 64 points more than Detroit, and also had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets (Marshall).

Just goes to show how misleading stats are by themselves because the majority of those so called targets were uncatchable and frankly should not have even been called targets. And only 5 of those targets were inside the 5 yard line.

I also should add that being the only real weapon on offense and the coverage associated with that is a major factor in stats like that.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I think the problem I have with Calvin's usage is more near the goal line than just inside the 20. A lot of this is because of my memories of how the Lions used Herman Moore. He would line up all over the place and they threw him the ball in all parts of the field, which is what the article a few posts up said they were doing with Calvin in practice. The defense never had an answer for Moore and with them not really knowing where he was going, he often ended up single covered. They threw mostly fades and jump balls near the goal line. He was impossible to defend back then. The lack of fades and jump balls to Calvin was the problem more than targets inside the 20. Very few of the throws from inside the 20 were catchable. He caught 2 of 15 targets that were thrown from between the 20 and 5. That number should speak for itself.

I think this year will be much different because of Stafford's year of experience and comfort in the offense, Calvin's comfort in the offense and confidence in the team, the additions of Burleson, Best, and Scheffler, and more legit opportunities on offense, namely fewer third and longs.

I don't mean to hijack, but will for a second. I went to a couple of practices last week and I really think Jahvid Best is going to be a big part of this offense in both the running and passing game. A couple of his cuts were just sick. He can stop on a dime and next thing you know, he is gone. Seeing him play in college on TV doesn't do him justice. They were putting him all over the field on passing downs, some at RB, some in the slot, a couple of plays out wide, lots of motion, etc. His speed alone forces defenses to know where he is at all times. That is something the Lions' offense lacked last year.

 

[kupcho1]

Jerry Rice walked on to a team that already won 2 SB in '81 and '84...what did Calvin walk into?

Jerry Rice = product of the system

 

[jurb26]

I was shocked to see how few times the Lions threw to Calvin in the red zone. He is impossible to cover down there.

Calvin was top 5 in RZ targets on a per game basis last year despite the Lions having far less RZ trips than any of the teams of the other top RZ receivers. 20 total RZ targets, 3 RZ TDs.

The Lions had 100+ fewer points than any other team that had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets. Calvin was targeted in the RZ a ridiculous percentage of the time, probably tops in the entire NFL.

I thought it was people just not seeing many Detroit games, but I know Borbely saw them all. People just love Calvin so much they're just seeing what they want to see with him. Nothing is ever Calvin's fault. Rather, it's everyone's fault around him, every time.

Calvin was in a bad situation last year, but Calvin often played poorly himself as well. Does that mean Calvin will be a bust this year or for his career? No, because he was awesome in college and he was awesome in 2008. But let's call this what it is here folks. Calvin had a bad year last year. Not just the Lions, not just Stafford, not just the coaches. But Calvin himself played poorly.

EDIT: Correction, Denver "only" scored 64 points more than Detroit, and also had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets (Marshall).

Just goes to show how misleading stats are by themselves because the majority of those so called targets were uncatchable and frankly should not have even been called targets. And only 5 of those targets were inside the 5 yard line.

:X

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I was shocked to see how few times the Lions threw to Calvin in the red zone. He is impossible to cover down there.

Calvin was top 5 in RZ targets on a per game basis last year despite the Lions having far less RZ trips than any of the teams of the other top RZ receivers. 20 total RZ targets, 3 RZ TDs.

The Lions had 100+ fewer points than any other team that had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets. Calvin was targeted in the RZ a ridiculous percentage of the time, probably tops in the entire NFL.

I thought it was people just not seeing many Detroit games, but I know Borbely saw them all. People just love Calvin so much they're just seeing what they want to see with him. Nothing is ever Calvin's fault. Rather, it's everyone's fault around him, every time.

Calvin was in a bad situation last year, but Calvin often played poorly himself as well. Does that mean Calvin will be a bust this year or for his career? No, because he was awesome in college and he was awesome in 2008. But let's call this what it is here folks. Calvin had a bad year last year. Not just the Lions, not just Stafford, not just the coaches. But Calvin himself played poorly.

EDIT: Correction, Denver "only" scored 64 points more than Detroit, and also had a receiver in the top 10 in RZ targets (Marshall).

Just goes to show how misleading stats are by themselves because the majority of those so called targets were uncatchable and frankly should not have even been called targets. And only 5 of those targets were inside the 5 yard line.

Just to clarify, by definition they were targets. My only point was that stats by themselves don't always tell the whole story, not just this, but in general.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

With this in mind, how do you explain his 2008 season? This year's Lions have much better offensive skill players than the 2008 team did. Basically, as I asked someone before, why are you (and others) counting last season so heavily and pretty much ignoring 2008?

The answer is because it's more recent. The question I have is: Is there a reason for the poor numbers that Calvin had in 2009. I think there is, but part of the problem is, at least for me is the problem isn't just 1. You can't just fix 1 problem and then we'll go back to being a top 3 WR.Stafford needs to take a step forward, Stafford needs to stay healthy, there has to be at least a threat of a running game, there has to be someone in the passing game besides Calvin Johnson and Calvin Johnson has to keep his head up, even when things are tough.I think Stafford will take that step forward. Stafford staying healthy we can't know for sure. The offensive line is still a work in progress, hopefully he'll be on the field more this year. J. Best should help the running game, again though it's not just Best or Smith, we need to keep improving the offensive line here. I think Nate Burleson, T. Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew will help keep defenses honest. During the 2nd half of the season, I saw a defeated Calvin Johnson. He was walking slowly back to the huddle or off the field with his head down. You can't afford to do that, to be that kind of a leader on a team that's looking for someone to be the guy. Calvin's a young player but he needs to realize through a veteran friend or coach that there will be better days ahead. For now, keep clapping your hands, pumping your fists and whether it's 2 or 3 years down the road, his hard work and optimism will be rewarded both on the field and off.Calvin Johnson is a top 5 talent, but the Lions and Calvin himself have to overcome and prove many of the things I mentioned. I think they'll accomplish most of those goals and Calvin will have a more productive year than last. My biggest problem is the offensive line keeping Stafford healthy and creating a running game. IF they can do that, Johnson is in for a big big year and you'll see him on plenty of Sportscenter clips this season.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He is still way overvalued... ADP of WR5, crazy!!!If he played on a decent team then I could see the high ADP but its Det.. this is a case of a situation destorying a talented player. By the time Det is half-way decent CJ will be around 28.. just not worth the price your paying.

With this in mind, how do you explain his 2008 season? This year's Lions have much better offensive skill players than the 2008 team did. Basically, as I asked someone before, why are you (and others) counting last season so heavily and pretty much ignoring 2008?

The answer is because it's more recent. The question I have is: Is there a reason for the poor numbers that Calvin had in 2009. I think there is, but part of the problem is, at least for me is the problem isn't just 1. You can't just fix 1 problem and then we'll go back to being a top 3 WR.Stafford needs to take a step forward, Stafford needs to stay healthy, there has to be at least a threat of a running game, there has to be someone in the passing game besides Calvin Johnson and Calvin Johnson has to keep his head up, even when things are tough.I think Stafford will take that step forward. Stafford staying healthy we can't know for sure. The offensive line is still a work in progress, hopefully he'll be on the field more this year. J. Best should help the running game, again though it's not just Best or Smith, we need to keep improving the offensive line here. I think Nate Burleson, T. Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew will help keep defenses honest. During the 2nd half of the season, I saw a defeated Calvin Johnson. He was walking slowly back to the huddle or off the field with his head down. You can't afford to do that, to be that kind of a leader on a team that's looking for someone to be the guy. Calvin's a young player but he needs to realize through a veteran friend or coach that there will be better days ahead. For now, keep clapping your hands, pumping your fists and whether it's 2 or 3 years down the road, his hard work and optimism will be rewarded both on the field and off.Calvin Johnson is a top 5 talent, but the Lions and Calvin himself have to overcome and prove many of the things I mentioned. I think they'll accomplish most of those goals and Calvin will have a more productive year than last. My biggest problem is the offensive line keeping Stafford healthy and creating a running game. IF they can do that, Johnson is in for a big big year and you'll see him on plenty of Sportscenter clips this season.

Pretty much agree with all of this. The line should be better, but it's still a bottom third in the league line. One more thing about the line is the lack of weapons and no running game caused an awful lot of 3rd and longs. When that happens and there is no threat in the running game, the defense just pins their ears back and lets it fly. They should be in more manageable situations on 3rd down this year, which would help the line.

 

[-jb-]

Bounce-back year for Calvin. I'll be so bold as to say he finishes ahead of Andre in standard scoring.

 

[Largie]

98% of the posts were back in June. Anyone feel differently? Eyeball test in the preseason - seems to me 94-1200 12tds is reasonable.

He IS the redzone for the offense.

 

[Grahamburn]

Calvin's TD grab last night was a thing of beauty. The Lion's first team offense really seems to be clicking.

 

[jurrassic]

I think I may keep Calvin over Rodgers. He is going to get a ton of red zone targets

 

[Mimo]

I think I may keep Calvin over Rodgers. He is going to get a ton of red zone targets

Calvin is a great keeper but if I had a choice of Calvin or Rodgers I'm keeping Rodgers.

 

[Blackjacks]

Huge fan

Calvin has everything going in the right direction for him this year.

If he gets help from his teamates and qb and can stay healthy I see no way he isn't a top 3 wr in all formats at the end of the year.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Calvin is screaming up draft boards. I used to hope I could get him in the 3rd. Now I often don't get him at 2.6. At least in most mocks.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has more pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season. 88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 TdsAnd I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

I don't post in every player spotlight but I had a strong opinion of Calvin and still so.

 

[sgtrobo]

agree thoroughly MoP.

 

[jurrassic]

I think I may keep Calvin over Rodgers. He is going to get a ton of red zone targets

Calvin is a great keeper but if I had a choice of Calvin or Rodgers I'm keeping Rodgers.

One on One maybe, the thing is the price you need to pay for Rodgers and the difference between drop-off from Calvin to Boldin/Steve Smith/Crabtree vs. Rodgers to Brady/Schaub/Rivers