Cam Newton vs Russell WIlson : Who would you pay big money for? (1 Viewer)

[FUBAR]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs.

You Wilson fanbois.

Watch Brees throw downfield and hit muthas in stride over and over again. Watch Wilson every time he throws more than 20 yards downfield...he's relying on the threat of the run to get a guy in single coverage where lobbing a moonball up for grabs becomes a plus proposition for the offense. Even when those WR's get open, they're still forced to wait and contest balls because Wilson has a sub-standard deep arm.

You never see him hitting streaking receivers for long scores, even though he gets more streaking receivers happening than anyone -- because of both the threat of the league's best and most dedicated rushing attack AND because of the threat of his own legs on broken passing plays.

It's painful to listen to people with no concept of how NFL offenses run spew this crap. Wilson is a game manager QB whose athleticism adds some additional tricks to his bag. That's it. As a passer, especially downfield, he's nowhere near in the same universe as Drew Brees. Wilson loses his needle-threading ability after about 20 yards. To get the ball deeper than that, he has to loft the ball higher than any other QB in the league. That's an arm-strength issue, and it's why big plays simply aren't a meaningful part of the Seahawk offensive philosophy. Deep catches? Sure, because D's have to overcommit to stop the run. But deep catch and runs? LOL. The Hawks have done a brilliant job of tailoring both the offense and the defense to their players' strengths and weaknesses, but it's completely blinded the people who can't understand that.

He IS an excellent game manager, and his versatility and mind for the game make him richly deserving of a top-flight contract, because there's more than one way to be a great QB in the NFL. Although it's obvious when you dissect his strengths and weaknesses that he needs to be the guy pushing the buttons on a ball-control offense and not the trigger man for a high-performance machine.

But Wilson couldn't put up 5000/40 against an empty defensive backfield.

You have zero idea what you're talking about.

Granted, there will be some differences in how each site grades deep passes, but here's PFF's version for 2014:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/29/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/

In it, Wilson shows as being above average in the 21-30 range (#10), the 31-40 range (#6), and the 40+ range (albeit just slightly at #15).

Here's more from the 2013 season (Deadspin, but using PFF data):

http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039

Let's also not forget that's exactly how he finished the NFCCG in overtime too, hitting Kearse in stride for a 35 yard TD.

Do you have any metrics to back up your claims of him having a weak arm? Or are you about to explain how a weak arm can still be accurate and effective on 20+ yard passes?

interesting to see Cam more accurate at 11-20 and 21-30 yards, less 1-10 and 31-40, and equal at 40+. Not sure it means a whole lot.

 

[biju]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs.

You Wilson fanbois.

Watch Brees throw downfield and hit muthas in stride over and over again. Watch Wilson every time he throws more than 20 yards downfield...he's relying on the threat of the run to get a guy in single coverage where lobbing a moonball up for grabs becomes a plus proposition for the offense. Even when those WR's get open, they're still forced to wait and contest balls because Wilson has a sub-standard deep arm.

You never see him hitting streaking receivers for long scores, even though he gets more streaking receivers happening than anyone -- because of both the threat of the league's best and most dedicated rushing attack AND because of the threat of his own legs on broken passing plays.

It's painful to listen to people with no concept of how NFL offenses run spew this crap. Wilson is a game manager QB whose athleticism adds some additional tricks to his bag. That's it. As a passer, especially downfield, he's nowhere near in the same universe as Drew Brees. Wilson loses his needle-threading ability after about 20 yards. To get the ball deeper than that, he has to loft the ball higher than any other QB in the league. That's an arm-strength issue, and it's why big plays simply aren't a meaningful part of the Seahawk offensive philosophy. Deep catches? Sure, because D's have to overcommit to stop the run. But deep catch and runs? LOL. The Hawks have done a brilliant job of tailoring both the offense and the defense to their players' strengths and weaknesses, but it's completely blinded the people who can't understand that.

He IS an excellent game manager, and his versatility and mind for the game make him richly deserving of a top-flight contract, because there's more than one way to be a great QB in the NFL. Although it's obvious when you dissect his strengths and weaknesses that he needs to be the guy pushing the buttons on a ball-control offense and not the trigger man for a high-performance machine.

But Wilson couldn't put up 5000/40 against an empty defensive backfield.

You have zero idea what you're talking about.

Granted, there will be some differences in how each site grades deep passes, but here's PFF's version for 2014:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/29/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/

In it, Wilson shows as being above average in the 21-30 range (#10), the 31-40 range (#6), and the 40+ range (albeit just slightly at #15).

Here's more from the 2013 season (Deadspin, but using PFF data):

http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039

Let's also not forget that's exactly how he finished the NFCCG in overtime too, hitting Kearse in stride for a 35 yard TD.

Do you have any metrics to back up your claims of him having a weak arm? Or are you about to explain how a weak arm can still be accurate and effective on 20+ yard passes?

interesting to see Cam more accurate at 11-20 and 21-30 yards, less 1-10 and 31-40, and equal at 40+. Not sure it means a whole lot.

I think it simply means that beyond all of this weird bickering and one-upmanship they are both pretty damn good.

 

[Tau837]

beyond all of this weird bickering and one-upmanship

This thread was free of that stuff until Freelove showed up.

 

[Tau837]

Ran across this thread in a search for something else. Clearly, both Seattle and Carolina were right to pay Wilson and Newton more than $20M per year, which was the OP question.

But the thread naturally included a lot of discussion about Cam vs. Newton. A lot of discussion about ceiling and who would likely be the better QB over time. Interested to know if any strong opinions (e.g., @The Commish @Freelove ) have changed.

 

[The General]

Both are franchise guys. I’d much rather have Wilson.

Cam needs the money more to pay for his hats.