Can Chris Johnson's small frame hold up all season? (1 Viewer)

[gbill2004]

The only knock/question against Chris Johnson is is somewhat small frame. He's listed as 5'11" and 200 lbs.

I love the guy, but thats my only concern. Your thoughts??

 

[joffer]

GIVE ME A "B"!!!!!!

 

[EBF]

This has the potential to get ugly, so I'll keep it short.

There aren't a lot of thin backs carrying a full load in the NFL. Johnson is both thin and light, so I'd be surprised if he was able to endure the rigors of 15-20 weekly touches over the course of a full season. You can't completely rule out the possibility though.

 

[thecardiackid]

GIVE ME A "B"!!!!!!

AND A "M" !!!

 

[gbill2004]

GIVE ME A "B"!!!!!!

AND A "M" !!!

And I'll take care of the "I".Now that we have that settled...your thoughts??

 

[TitusIII]

Lendale will ease the load...but no, I don't think he is the type that can handle 20+ touches each week, nor do I think the Titans want him to handle such a load at this point in his career.

 

[Brewzers]

I'll take football 101 for $1,000......

Alex: A Tennessee football player most likely to hit a home run.

Brewzers: Who is Chris Johnson!

 

[deep vacuum]

I'm a little slow today so I guess I'm getting that CJ is a great sell high candidate in a few weeks provided he's not on IR? :wink,wink:

 

[thecardiackid]

GIVE ME A "B"!!!!!!

AND A "M" !!!

And I'll take care of the "I".Now that we have that settled...your thoughts??

Honestly, it's hard to deny the *science* behind EBF's research. The data is compelling to some degree. That said, the current state of the NFL is moving towards RBBCs / split backfields and LBJ has his role (NFL and FF), especially on a team that runs like TN. Norwood looks like a guy in a similar role, but w/ less opportunity. To me he looks (situationally) like MJD lite - w/o the tree trunk legs and goal line looks.Will he hold up @ 5'10" and 200 lbs? Only time will tell, and there are ALWAYS exceptions to rules like these. His speed and vision will help to keep him out of (most) trouble, and TN isn't asking him to take a 25-30 touch / week pounding - yet.

 

[Raider Nation]

Yes.

No, wait....

NO!

 

[thestingingrain]

Isn't Brian Westbrook listed at 5'10 and 203?

Believe me, I'm in no way comparing him to Westbrook or expect spectacular numbers, but isn't that a pretty close comparison as to the size and the carrying the load/touches debate?

 

[Bob Magaw]

he is reminiscent of reggie bush in some ways, which could be good & bad... bush has already been banged up at times in just over two seasons...

but if you think of where bush went in drafts this year, it was probably a lot higher than johnson... that gap could get closed considerably by this time next year...

bush no doubt is a better pass catcher (one of the best receiving RBs i've seen, along with marshall faulk) & almost certainly deserves to be ranked higher in PPR leagues... i haven't seen johnson a lot, but it wouldn't surprise me if his open field moves aren't as impressive as bush's...

be that as it may, johnson may have better inside running instincts than bush, which could make him the superior OVERALL pure rusher... johnson is a lot faster than bush (& i think bush was one of the fastest prep sprinters in the state of CA, so i don't say that lightly)... johnson may be the fastest RB to ever play in the NFL... i can't think of any off the top of my head that were faster... the scary thing is that he flashes good vision, instincts & moves, & can translate his cartoonish track speed onto the football field...

the receiving yardage bush is sure to get if healthy should give him more combined yards, but johnson's greater speed & explosiveness imo could garner far more long runs, rushing yards & rushing TDs, if he can hold up to about 12-15 carries & 2-3 receptions per game... he doesn't look like the kind of player that needs the ball 20 times before he breaks a long one... even if he is getting about 15 touches a game, he has a MUCH better chance of breaking a long run or two than a plodder that happens to get the ball a few more times at 17-18 carries per game... besides, there just aren't that many RBs that carry the ball 20 X a game anymore...

 

[JamesTheScot]

No.

Will he have fantasy value? Sure.

Will he ever be RB1 material? I don't think he ever will. There will always be a few NFL teams that will regularly get one of their RB's 20+ carries per week and those guys will always sift to the top 10 based on the superior number of touches they get.

Will he ever be RB2 material? I think he might but I'm still a little skeptical. I think the Titans will make an effort to keep him well involved in the gameplan and he has the talent to make the most of those 10-13 tounches per game. I just don't know if you will want to rely on him to consistently turning those 10 touches into similar production that his 20 touch contemporaries produce. I think he has the potential to explode on any given week but that also means he can disappear.

Will he be RB3 material? I think he should easily do this for the same reason.

I think he will always be paired with a larger "power" back based upon his size. Warrick Dunn suffered from this for years before Atlanta gave him the opportunity. And it's interesting to note that the plan in Atlanta was still to pair him with a larger power back. They just got away from that when they saw how unproductive their power back was.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Could you define what you mean by hold up? Do you mean play all 16 games? Carry the ball 300 times? There are rb's much bigger than this guy who can't do that. Running back's a pretty tough position to play you know.

 

[encaitar]

I think he can get 250 touches a year in the form of 200 carries and 50 receptions. IMO, that's enough to garner him RB2 status on most FF teams. It could even be RB1 status because of what he could do with those touches.

He is not, nor will he ever be, a bruising type of RB that will wear down defenses with his strength. He will never get 350 carries in a season. However, Barry Sanders was never a big back, yet he had the ability and vision to avoid big hits. I'm not saying that CJ has that ability and vision(we'll have to see), but it is possible to carry the load without having prototypical size.

 

[sterjs]

He is not, nor will he ever be, a bruising type of RB that will wear down defenses with his strength. He will never get 350 carries in a season. However, Barry Sanders was never a big back, yet he had the ability and vision to avoid big hits. I'm not saying that CJ has that ability and vision(we'll have to see), but it is possible to carry the load without having prototypical size.

Chris Johnson's size was discussed ad nauseum in the Hype thread. Sanders was a much denser back than CJ. The best players with similar body types are guys like Clinton Portis(gained weight after entering league) and Charlie Garner.

 

[encaitar]

He is not, nor will he ever be, a bruising type of RB that will wear down defenses with his strength. He will never get 350 carries in a season. However, Barry Sanders was never a big back, yet he had the ability and vision to avoid big hits. I'm not saying that CJ has that ability and vision(we'll have to see), but it is possible to carry the load without having prototypical size.

Chris Johnson's size was discussed ad nauseum in the Hype thread. Sanders was a much denser back than CJ. The best players with similar body types are guys like Clinton Portis(gained weight after entering league) and Charlie Garner.

True Sanders was a bit denser than CJ is, but he still never took big hits. He never would have made it through a season if he didn't know how to avoid hits. That's what CJ needs to do. If he can learn to avoid taking the punishing hits, then yes he can carry the ball 15 times a game, otherwise I can't see him getting that much of a load without getting hurt.Good point on Portis, though. I expect that Johnson will add a few pounds in the next few years also.

 

[Todem]

We have a 30 page thread with a plethora of info about Blue Jes...I mean Chris Johnson.

And yes he is a Stud back.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I think he can get 250 touches a year in the form of 200 carries and 50 receptions. IMO, that's enough to garner him RB2 status on most FF teams. It could even be RB1 status because of what he could do with those touches.

He is not, nor will he ever be, a bruising type of RB that will wear down defenses with his strength. He will never get 350 carries in a season. However, Barry Sanders was never a big back, yet he had the ability and vision to avoid big hits. I'm not saying that CJ has that ability and vision(we'll have to see), but it is possible to carry the load without having prototypical size.

In before EBF mentions that Barry's BMI was 30.9, while Chris Johnson's is 27.5 -- a huge difference. Their builds aren't even remotely similar.

 

[encaitar]

I think he can get 250 touches a year in the form of 200 carries and 50 receptions. IMO, that's enough to garner him RB2 status on most FF teams. It could even be RB1 status because of what he could do with those touches.

He is not, nor will he ever be, a bruising type of RB that will wear down defenses with his strength. He will never get 350 carries in a season. However, Barry Sanders was never a big back, yet he had the ability and vision to avoid big hits. I'm not saying that CJ has that ability and vision(we'll have to see), but it is possible to carry the load without having prototypical size.

In before EBF mentions that Barry's BMI was 30.9, while Chris Johnson's is 27.5 -- a huge difference. Their builds aren't even remotely similar.

I don't give a #### about BMI. I know they aren't of similar build, but that doesn't mean that Barry was a "big" back. Dude was 5'8" and 205. If he regularly took hits from 260 lb linebackers, he wouldn't stand up. So he learned to avoid the big hit. That's my entire point. It has nothing to do with comparing CJ's and Barry's respective builds and everything to do with saying that CJ needs to learn to avoid the hits, much in the way that Sanders did. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

 

[bcr8f]

We have a 30 page thread with a plethora of info about Blue Jes...I mean Chris Johnson.And no he is not a Stud back.

Now that's better. People keep bringing up Westbrook, but he is a much more solidly built back.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I think he can get 250 touches a year in the form of 200 carries and 50 receptions. IMO, that's enough to garner him RB2 status on most FF teams. It could even be RB1 status because of what he could do with those touches.

He is not, nor will he ever be, a bruising type of RB that will wear down defenses with his strength. He will never get 350 carries in a season. However, Barry Sanders was never a big back, yet he had the ability and vision to avoid big hits. I'm not saying that CJ has that ability and vision(we'll have to see), but it is possible to carry the load without having prototypical size.

In before EBF mentions that Barry's BMI was 30.9, while Chris Johnson's is 27.5 -- a huge difference. Their builds aren't even remotely similar.

I don't give a #### about BMI. I know they aren't of similar build, but that doesn't mean that Barry was a "big" back. Dude was 5'8" and 205. If he regularly took hits from 260 lb linebackers, he wouldn't stand up. So he learned to avoid the big hit. That's my entire point. It has nothing to do with comparing CJ's and Barry's respective builds and everything to do with saying that CJ needs to learn to avoid the hits, much in the way that Sanders did. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

Totally understand your point. Agreed, it is critical that he learn to avoid the big hit. Just wanted to make sure that EBF didn't have to feel obligated to post Barry and CJ3's BMI numbers.

 

[encaitar]

I think he can get 250 touches a year in the form of 200 carries and 50 receptions. IMO, that's enough to garner him RB2 status on most FF teams. It could even be RB1 status because of what he could do with those touches.

He is not, nor will he ever be, a bruising type of RB that will wear down defenses with his strength. He will never get 350 carries in a season. However, Barry Sanders was never a big back, yet he had the ability and vision to avoid big hits. I'm not saying that CJ has that ability and vision(we'll have to see), but it is possible to carry the load without having prototypical size.

In before EBF mentions that Barry's BMI was 30.9, while Chris Johnson's is 27.5 -- a huge difference. Their builds aren't even remotely similar.

I don't give a #### about BMI. I know they aren't of similar build, but that doesn't mean that Barry was a "big" back. Dude was 5'8" and 205. If he regularly took hits from 260 lb linebackers, he wouldn't stand up. So he learned to avoid the big hit. That's my entire point. It has nothing to do with comparing CJ's and Barry's respective builds and everything to do with saying that CJ needs to learn to avoid the hits, much in the way that Sanders did. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

Totally understand your point. Agreed, it is critical that he learn to avoid the big hit. Just wanted to make sure that EBF didn't have to feel obligated to post Barry and CJ3's BMI numbers.

Fair enough. I'm surprised he isn't here yet. I thought he had an alarm that went off anytime someone mentioned BMI in the shark pool.

 

[JKL]

Could you define what you mean by hold up? Do you mean play all 16 games? Carry the ball 300 times? There are rb's much bigger than this guy who can't do that. Running back's a pretty tough position to play you know.

Here is a summary of all running backs who have rushed at least 320 times in a season, since 1978, sorted by BMI, to see how many games were missed the next season, and what the average drop in YPC was (excluding all where the player retired, or took a year off to go to India to avoid a drug test):BMI 32.0 or higher: 14 seasons, 11.7 GP, -0.43 YPC diffBMI 30.5 to 31.9: 33 seasons, 14.4 GP, -0.00 YPC diffBMI 29.0 to 30.4: 37 seasons, 13.9 GP, -0.17 YPC diffBMI 28.9 or less: 35 seasons, 13.7 GP, -0.04 YPC diffIt's actually the heavy backs who have turned in the fewest high carry seasons, and those that did easily declined the most. But I don't see anyone questioning whether Johnathan Stewart, and not Chris Johnson, can hold up.It is true that the average height of starting running backs has decreased while weight has increased over the last twenty years, since guys like Allen and Dickerson entered the league. I just don't see strong evidence that those on the lower extreme who have made it to starting back status have broken down more than their peers.My position is that you are playing with fire if you expect any back to handle really high workloads, regardless of his size, weight, last name, or place of birth. I don't see evidence that "ideal" backs stay healthy when subjected to high workloads at any better rate. I suspect that serious injury avoidance has more to do with stamina and conditioning than size--getting too much work when you don't get adequate oxygen flow to tissue in the legs.That said, I think it is a good idea to monitor the workload of any young player, not just Johnson. Sample size is not large enough to have statistical significance, but younger backs (23 or under) do get injured at a higher rate than older ones when controlling for workload. Again, this is true even of "ideally sized" backs. Fred Taylor is a prominent example. When he carried the ball alot, having games with 30+ carries early in his career, he tended to break down and get the nickname Fragile Fred. When he got older and had more controlled workloads, he has thrived and stayed healthy, playing longer than most backs.I think he can reasonably get 15-18 carries per game on a consistent basis, and another 6 catches, so long as he is in good condition, and have no greater injury risk than others. And with those touches, if he is very productive, he can be a fantasy force.

 

[FavreCo]

Nope.