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As far as jumping the shark, the quality of the product is ultimately what will dictate this but could take several years to see. There have been some supplements to enhance the entertainment and supplement the product. The two biggest being fantasy football and sports betting. Fantasy football is somewhat saturated, but sports betting has not. These two things draw additional interest to the game that would otherwise not be watching.
The key to me is what happens when the sports betting market saturates? Without another driver, you must make the quality of the product better. Right now, there are some things that make the quality of the product worse.
1. The effectiveness of the salary cap has been neutralized by the need for a top 3/5 QB and has now made LESS, not more parity than at any point during the Super Bowl era. There are several data points to back this up, but it’s mind boggling there has only been 1 QB drafted after 2012 to win a Super Bowl. That did not happen pre salary cap.
2. There are far too many stoppages and inconsistencies in the game. TV timeouts, reviews, injury timeouts, timeouts, etc
3. There are some plays that no longer serve a purpose and need to be altered or taken out completely. The kick return and onside kick being the two biggest. Both used to be the most exciting plays in the game and both now serve little to no purpose due to rule changes.
What could be the next driver in ratings after sports betting is saturated?
1. For me, it’s technology. If I were in charge, I would make turn the football field into a smart field. Have cameras in every pylon. Have cameras in the first down sticks. Have a camera installed just above the face mask where the helmet manufacturer logo sits. Have sky cameras. Then allow people to watch via all the cameras at once or choose via a smart device. Evaluate putting a chip on the players and football. All the cameras/chips would be synched to a server, and you know exactly what plays your team is running, how fast they are, how fast the ball is moving, and see the field through your players point of view.
2. Special teams need to be consequential again besides just kicking FGs. Several ideas for Kick/Punt returns and onside kicks, and the competition committee should be held to make some changes in the future.
3. Shorter reviews and more efficient officiating.
Overall, football remains strong but I could see a continued rise in all other major sports and college football even take some market share after the sports betting market saturates.