Can somebody convince me that Steve Smith (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Bennett - Not even close

who the heck is going to catch balls in Tennessee? Aren't you high on McNair this year? That defense is going to be terrible and they will be forced to pass early and often. Their offensive line has some issues as well which will hurt the running game more than anything. All these things suggest another big season for Bennett.Meanwhile, in Carolina, you have a conservative coach who would much prefer to run the ball if given a choice. The Panthers defense and running game should be much better this year than it was in 2004. How do we know that Smith's 2003 season was not a fluke, and why would we expect him to do better than those 2003 numbers?

There are three main reasons why I don't have Bennett in Smith's tier:1) Chow is promising to spread the ball around much more this year including a a much larger percentage of balls going to the TEs and RBs. I can find the link, but I'm sure you've read the same quotes.

2) Bennett's stats were inflated due to a couple of flag-football-like games where Volek just locked onto him. Will the Titan's be in some shootouts this year...yes. Will Bennett see the kinds of games he had at the end of last year...I don't belive so.

3) I think Bennet's talent is above average, but not in Smith's class.

Edited to Add #4: Tennessee's running game should be much more solid.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Derrick Mason - I don't think he's as tough or blocks as well.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bennett - Not even close

Meanwhile, in Carolina, you have a conservative coach who would much prefer to run the ball if given a choice. The Panthers defense and running game should be much better this year than it was in 2004. How do we know that Smith's 2003 season was not a fluke, and why would we expect him to do better than those 2003 numbers?

Have you been watching the pre-season games? What about the 2003 post season. The evidence is everywhere.

 

[LHUCKS]

Bennett - Not even close

who the heck is going to catch balls in Tennessee? Aren't you high on McNair this year? That defense is going to be terrible and they will be forced to pass early and often. Their offensive line has some issues as well which will hurt the running game more than anything. All these things suggest another big season for Bennett.Meanwhile, in Carolina, you have a conservative coach who would much prefer to run the ball if given a choice. The Panthers defense and running game should be much better this year than it was in 2004. How do we know that Smith's 2003 season was not a fluke?

Fair warning LHUCKS. If you say Calico, Im coming ot find you and beat you with "Chrissy" Brown's walking boot from last year.

Jones, Troupe, Kinney, Henry, Brown, Roby, Williams, CalicoI believe Chow is going to really spread the ball around...why am I telling you this? I know you know this.

 

[Not Nipsey's Alias]

Do you believe Smith is better/just as talented as Muhammad?

Without question. He's a gamebreaker who can do as much after the catch than anyone in the league.\ Thats why he struggles to break 13 ypc as a #1 WR The guy is a possesion receiver and a deep threat. Also, my league doesn't give points based on ypc...yours does?.

Do you expect the Panthers to lose half of their starting defense to injury again?

No, but like any team, injuries happen.Yes, but you do realize the odds of that many key injuries happening again are very, very low, correct? hence the "no"

Do you expect their top 4 RBs will be injured again?

Given who those RB's are, I'd say there's a chance. Again, we're talking low odds "hence the "chance"

Do you expect the Panthers to be playing from behind, unable to run the ball well, and thus forced to throw quite a bit again?

It's possible. Only if the other two low odd scenarios both happen Hence "It's possible"

Do you believe that Keary Colbert(2nd year), Rod Gardner, and Ricky Proehl are less of an option to steal receptions than Keary Colbert(rookie), Ricky Proehl, and Karl Hankton?

I believe more talent on the other side equals MORE quality chances for Smith, not less. You should ask Marvin Harrison about that To equate the weapons on carolina to the emergence of players in Indy isn't really fair. Also, did Marvin suck recently and I wasn't informed?

If the answer to all of those questions are yes, then it might be reasonable that Smith could approximate Muhammad's numbers.  (This is not even including the injury, which in addition to a broken fibula also tore several tendons in his ankle)

Bones heal even stronger than before they broke. Are torn ankle tendons a reason for concern? Has anyone seen anything indicating they could be a problem? I honestly don't know. I read his ankle was sore after his first preseason game, but Fox said that was to be expected.Yikes...ok. When a player suffers a bone injury, yes, it is typically not a concern, because as you said, bones heal back stronger. But, you do realize this was a surgery situation right? One with a long recovery period? One that probably kept him from physical activities for 6+ months? Ankle soreness is to be expected...because he tore a bunch of tendons in it. That doesnt mean its not a huge deal, and that doesnt mean it won't slow him down. It will likely be a pain issue he'll have to deal with throughout the season. Not saying the injury is a huge deal, but to flippantly write it off is just silly, especially with all of the other factors working against him It's posts like this that encourage the casual fans to NOT post in the shark pool. Lose the attitude. Are you a doctor or did you just stay at a holiday inn last night? ool.

 

[LHUCKS]

BTW John, Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

 

[LHUCKS]

Derrick Mason - I don't think he's as tough or blocks as well.

Mason is tough, but Smith is more explosive and in a better situation.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Bennett - Not even close

who the heck is going to catch balls in Tennessee? Aren't you high on McNair this year? That defense is going to be terrible and they will be forced to pass early and often. Their offensive line has some issues as well which will hurt the running game more than anything. All these things suggest another big season for Bennett.Meanwhile, in Carolina, you have a conservative coach who would much prefer to run the ball if given a choice. The Panthers defense and running game should be much better this year than it was in 2004. How do we know that Smith's 2003 season was not a fluke, and why would we expect him to do better than those 2003 numbers?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Bennett - Not even close

Meanwhile, in Carolina, you have a conservative coach who would much prefer to run the ball if given a choice. The Panthers defense and running game should be much better this year than it was in 2004. How do we know that Smith's 2003 season was not a fluke, and why would we expect him to do better than those 2003 numbers?

Have you been watching the pre-season games? What about the 2003 post season. The evidence is everywhere.

sorry, BnB, try as I might but I've yet to find a way to watch every preseason game. I watch NFL network all day long, but have yet to see the Panthers play this year. Let me know when they're on TV and I'll be sure to catch it.From my perspective, I've seen plenty of "evidence" that all of the WRs I listed were talented enough to be ranked ahead of Steve Smith. Smith certainly impressed me during his 2003 season, and I appreciate his abilities...but, I think he's about equivalent to Laveranues Coles without the toe problem. That's not a bad thing...Coles is a damn good WR. But, I don't think he, nor Smith, belong in a ranking of the top-10 NFL WRs...and I'm reasonably confident that 90% of NFL GMs and talent evaluators would agree.

 

[Muahahaha]

I was down on Smith until I heard the NFL radio Training Camp Report with the Panthers. They had Delhomme and Smith on at the same time. Delhomme basically said that he likes to have a "go-to" guy. He said that last year MM was that guy and now Smith is that guy. I don't have a link.I happen to believe that Delhomme by nature locks in on one target. Some QBs spread it around; Brady certainly does. Delhomme doesn't. He keys on his top receiver. I am 100% sure that Smith will be in the top 5 in targets this year just like MM last year. I fully expect Smith to translate those targets into a top 5 finish. Colbert and Gardner will be afterthoughts. Talent has little to do with it. Targets will be the key.I think that by focusing on MM's size or the NFL's evaluation of Smith you are missing the point. The point is Delhomme is the same; he locks in. For that reason alone Smith looks good this year.

 

[packersfan]

Javon Walker, Michael Clayton, Drew Bennett, Reggie Wayne, Darrell Jackson, and Nate Burleson are all in better situations than him now and all are coming off great seasons from 2004. Nobody would have ranked those guys ahead of him last year.

How exactly is Bennett in a better situation? Does he have a better QB? Sure but Delhomme is pretty damn good and is easily one of the most under-rated players in the league in my opinion.

Has Bennett proven himself over the course of a full season as a go-to WR? Nope. However, Smith has.

Are Bennett's complementary WRs strong enough to take pressure off him? HIGHLY speculative there. I'd take Colbert over anybody the Titans have and Gardner's probably more talented than any of them as well. He's definitely more proven.

Has Bennett proven to have a strong rapport with his starting QB? Hardly. His best work last season came with Volek, not McNair. Smith, on the other hand, has already proven he can work well with Delhomme.

So how exactly is Bennett in a better situation than Smith again?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Derrick Mason - I don't think he's as tough or blocks as well.

Mason is tough, but Smith is more explosive and in a better situation.

the original claim was that Smith was a top-5 NFL WR. I don't think being in a more favorable situation automatically makes somebody a better WR. You have to try and mentally adjust for the situation and imagine what that player would do in a different situation.For example, I can't think of very many situations where Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss would not be considered top-5 WRs in the league. I also think you could have put Eric Moulds in a Colts uniform on draft day and he would be headed for the Hall of Fame.

Mason has clearly proved himself over a number of years to be one of the most reliable, consistent, and versatile WRs in the league.

 

[Not Nipsey's Alias]

BTW John,

Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

I used to be a safari guide for 7 years. Sorry you don't like it. My lady thinks it's hot and if you saw her, you'd want her to think you were hot.

 

[LHUCKS]

the original claim was that Smith was a top-5 NFL WR. I don't think being in a more favorable situation automatically makes somebody a better WR. You have to try and mentally adjust for the situation and image what that player would do in a different situation.

OK, I agree with that.

For example, I can't think of very many situations where Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss would not be considered top-5 WRs in the league. I also think you could have put Eric Moulds in a Colts uniform on draft day and he would be headed for the Hall of Fame.

I agree with all of that, but also believe that you could put a lot of the WRs mentioned in this thread into the Colts starting lineup and build a future HOF'er...including Steve Smith.

Mason has clearly proved himself over a number of years to be one of the most reliable, consistent, and versatile WRs in the league.

Sure, but he lacks the explosion that many of the top WRs have. Of course that can't be proven and it's a qualitative observation, but I think most would agree that Smith has more natural ability than does Mason.

 

[LHUCKS]

BTW John,

Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

I used to be a safari guide for 7 years. Sorry you don't like it. My lady thinks it's hot and if you saw her, you'd want her to think you were hot.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Javon Walker, Michael Clayton, Drew Bennett, Reggie Wayne, Darrell Jackson, and Nate Burleson are all in better situations than him now and all are coming off great seasons from 2004. Nobody would have ranked those guys ahead of him last year.

How exactly is Bennett in a better situation? Does he have a better QB? Sure but Delhomme is pretty damn good and is easily one of the most under-rated players in the league in my opinion.

Has Bennett proven himself over the course of a full season as a go-to WR? Nope. However, Smith has.

Are Bennett's complementary WRs strong enough to take pressure off him? HIGHLY speculative there. I'd take Colbert over anybody the Titans have and Gardner's probably more talented than any of them as well. He's definitely more proven.

Has Bennett proven to have a strong rapport with his starting QB? Hardly. His best work last season came with Volek, not McNair. Smith, on the other hand, has already proven he can work well with Delhomme.

So how exactly is Bennett in a better situation than Smith again?

He's the only viable WR on that team so he will receive a large % of targets and be the primary option in the red zone. He's one of a few WRs in the league who can produce as a deep threat and from the goaline. The defense sucks so they will be throwing early and often. Titans will almost certainly finish the season with a positive pass/run ratio and I wouldn't be shocked if it was 55/45 or higher.Panthers, however, WANT to commit to their running game and defense and they actually have the personnel to do so. Wouldn't be surprised if they finished with a 55/45 run/pass ratio or higher. They now have a much deeper group of RBs to rely on, and have upgraded their offensive line from last year. The defense will also be better.

Additionally, I respect the defense of the Falcons and Bucs much more than the Colts, Texans, or Jaguars so Bennett may have an easier strength of schedule as well.

 

[abe froman]

80-1100-8 max, possibility of 70-900-5.

Above average WR, but not nearly in Muhammad's class, and the offense and situation surrounding the offense will be vastly different this season. 

Im not a Smith hater; I called his 2003 breakout season when no one was high on him...but the situations arent the same.

You are joking right???Moose was the number 2 man behind Smith......officially for one season, but really two. If not for the injury last year it would have been 3 years for Moose as a #2 man.

I'd be shocked if Smith ever puts up a season like Muhammad did last year. Muhammad's a big physical receiver with all the tools.

Exactly. Smith couldnt dream of doing the things Moose did last year. Muhammad has fought through alot of injuries, but hes always had #1 WR ability. Smith is a good #2 WR who can be forced into a #1 role.

What can Muhammad do that Steve Smith can not.....other than be 6 foot tall?

Use his body, get open consistently, consistently dominate opposing defenses.

consistently for 1 whole year..zz the guys like 32 yrs old isnt he?? Prior to "04" and Smith getting injured, Mushy "used his body-consistently and dominated opposing defenses" a total of 3 times in "03" and again a whopping 3 TD's in "02".....Steve Smith is the future Mushy had a fluke year and might as well be in the bermuda triangle this year. lets move on!

 

[packersfan]

Bennett - Not even close

Meanwhile, in Carolina, you have a conservative coach who would much prefer to run the ball if given a choice.

I've posted this information before, but here's something to keep in mind about the "conservative" John Fox: In the first 9 games of the season in '04, Delhomme averaged 239 passing yards and 1.7 TD passes per game. In the last seven, he averaged 247 passing yards and 2 TD passes per game.

What's notable about the last seven games? That's when Nick Goings was supplying the Panthers with a stronger running game after weeks of problems following the injuries to Davis and Foster. Granted, the difference in production isn't extreme but it is interesting to note that Delhomme's passing production improved when the Panthers had a stronger and more consistent running game. That was one of the reasons why Muhammad was able to finish with such a flourish.

Just a little food for thought.

 

[Not Nipsey's Alias]

Javon Walker, Michael Clayton, Drew Bennett, Reggie Wayne, Darrell Jackson, and Nate Burleson are all in better situations than him now and all are coming off great seasons from 2004. Nobody would have ranked those guys ahead of him last year.

How exactly is Bennett in a better situation? Does he have a better QB? Sure but Delhomme is pretty damn good and is easily one of the most under-rated players in the league in my opinion.

Has Bennett proven himself over the course of a full season as a go-to WR? Nope. However, Smith has.

Are Bennett's complementary WRs strong enough to take pressure off him? HIGHLY speculative there. I'd take Colbert over anybody the Titans have and Gardner's probably more talented than any of them as well. He's definitely more proven.

Has Bennett proven to have a strong rapport with his starting QB? Hardly. His best work last season came with Volek, not McNair. Smith, on the other hand, has already proven he can work well with Delhomme.

So how exactly is Bennett in a better situation than Smith again?

He's the only viable WR on that team so he will receive a large % of targets and be the primary option in the red zone. He's one of a few WRs in the league who can produce as a deep threat and from the goaline. The defense sucks so they will be throwing early and often. Titans will almost certainly finish the season with a positive pass/run ratio and I wouldn't be shocked if it was 55/45 or higher.Panthers, however, WANT to commit to their running game and defense and they actually have the personnel to do so. Wouldn't be surprised if they finished with a 55/45 run/pass ratio or higher. They now have a much deeper group of RBs to rely on, and have upgraded their offensive line from last year. The defense will also be better.

Additionally, I respect the defense of the Falcons and Bucs much more than the Colts, Texans, or Jaguars so Bennett may have an easier strength of schedule as well.

Don't you think that a guy being the "only" option is actually a detriment?

 

[packersfan]

Javon Walker, Michael Clayton, Drew Bennett, Reggie Wayne, Darrell Jackson, and Nate Burleson are all in better situations than him now and all are coming off great seasons from 2004. Nobody would have ranked those guys ahead of him last year.

How exactly is Bennett in a better situation? Does he have a better QB? Sure but Delhomme is pretty damn good and is easily one of the most under-rated players in the league in my opinion.

Has Bennett proven himself over the course of a full season as a go-to WR? Nope. However, Smith has.

Are Bennett's complementary WRs strong enough to take pressure off him? HIGHLY speculative there. I'd take Colbert over anybody the Titans have and Gardner's probably more talented than any of them as well. He's definitely more proven.

Has Bennett proven to have a strong rapport with his starting QB? Hardly. His best work last season came with Volek, not McNair. Smith, on the other hand, has already proven he can work well with Delhomme.

So how exactly is Bennett in a better situation than Smith again?

He's the only viable WR on that team so he will receive a large % of targets and be the primary option in the red zone.

Agreed. However, that could work to his disadvantage. If defenses know there's no one else they have to be concerned about they'll roll coverage to Bennett and do everything they can to take him out of the passing game.

He's one of a few WRs in the league who can produce as a deep threat and from the goaline.

Has he proven this over the course of an entire season as a go-to WR?

The defense sucks so they will be throwing early and often. Titans will almost certainly finish the season with a positive pass/run ratio and I wouldn't be shocked if it was 55/45 or higher.

Agreed.

Panthers, however, WANT to commit to their running game and defense and they actually have the personnel to do so. Wouldn't be surprised if they finished with a 55/45 run/pass ratio or higher. They now have a much deeper group of RBs to rely on, and have upgraded their offensive line from last year. The defense will also be better.

Agree with both, but see my post above about what happened last season when the Panthers running game improved (that coincided with better play from the defense as well).

Additionally, I respect the defense of the Falcons and Bucs much more than the Colts, Texans, or Jaguars so Bennett may have an easier strength of schedule as well.

I think the Jags' defense is better than Atlanta's but that's splitting hairs. I like Bennett but we've seen before how difficult it can be for a No. 2 WR to step into the go-to role. How much double coverage did Bennett see last season with Mason on the other side of the field? Now how much will he see with Tyrone Calico or one of the rookies there? HUGE difference. Plus Bennett's best work last season came with Volek, not McNair. I think Bennett could do well but I think he's slightly over-rated this season. Smith seems to be under-valued in a lot of ways and I really hope that doesn't change anytime soon. I felt the same way about Delhomme last season and pimped him hard here and I'm back at it with him and Smith again this season.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Don't you think that a guy being the "only" option is actually a detriment?

It certainly can be...but, there's a fine line there. Plenty of WRs have been successful without a very strong complementary WR lining up opposite them. IMO, I want a WR who is going to be the #1 option for the QB on nearly every passing play. A lot depends on the abilities of the offensive coaching staff to move a WR around and make it difficult for defenses to double team that player. It's not like defenses are going to start double teaming Rod Gardner or Keary Colbert...and they also won't leave Tyrone Calico or Brandon Jones uncovered. So, both WRs should face a similar amount of double coverage.The differences in the running games could be key here. If the Titans struggle to run the ball, it will be tough for them to sustain drives. Part of Bennett's value to me is that he can be dominant inside the 20 b/c of his height whereas Smith's height will hurt him in that area. So, when the Panthers run the ball well, while that will improve the overall effectiveness of the offense, it could take away enough TD opportunities to make an impact. But, when the Titans run well, Bennett should get even more targets in the red zone area. I also think the Titans will get blown out or involved in more shootouts this year, and that is always a great thing for WRs.I guess the main reason I like Bennett more than Smith is b/c I think he has much better TD potential...but otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised to see them put up similar numbers this year.

 

[abe froman]

Bennett - Not even close

who the heck is going to catch balls in Tennessee? Aren't you high on McNair this year? That defense is going to be terrible and they will be forced to pass early and often. Their offensive line has some issues as well which will hurt the running game more than anything. All these things suggest another big season for Bennett.Meanwhile, in Carolina, you have a conservative coach who would much prefer to run the ball if given a choice. The Panthers defense and running game should be much better this year than it was in 2004. How do we know that Smith's 2003 season was not a fluke, and why would we expect him to do better than those 2003 numbers?

if we got points for targets than I think you would have a good point. Otherwise my league gives points for receptions and TD's. now although I agree that Ten. will be passing more because of the weak def, you still have to believe bennett will be fighting with 2-3 defenders. Also AGAIN, bennett success came with Volek..

 

[Not Nipsey's Alias]

Don't you think that a guy being the "only" option is actually a detriment?

It certainly can be...but, there's a fine line there. Plenty of WRs have been successful without a very strong complementary WR lining up opposite them. IMO, I want a WR who is going to be the #1 option for the QB on nearly every passing play. A lot depends on the abilities of the offensive coaching staff to move a WR around and make it difficult for defenses to double team that player. It's not like defenses are going to start double teaming Rod Gardner or Keary Colbert...and they also won't leave Tyrone Calico or Brandon Jones uncovered. So, both WRs should face a similar amount of double coverage.The differences in the running games could be key here. If the Titans struggle to run the ball, it will be tough for them to sustain drives. Part of Bennett's value to me is that he can be dominant inside the 20 b/c of his height whereas Smith's height will hurt him in that area. So, when the Panthers run the ball well, while that will improve the overall effectiveness of the offense, it could take away enough TD opportunities to make an impact. But, when the Titans run well, Bennett should get even more targets in the red zone area. I also think the Titans will get blown out or involved in more shootouts this year, and that is always a great thing for WRs.

I guess the main reason I like Bennett more than Smith is b/c I think he has much better TD potential...but otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised to see them put up similar numbers this year.

Thanks.

 

[PRS Guy]

BTW John,

Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

I used to be a safari guide for 7 years. Sorry you don't like it. My lady thinks it's hot and if you saw her, you'd want her to think you were hot.

Maybe you should have an avatar of your lady then rather than you.

 

[abe froman]

BTW John,

Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

I used to be a safari guide for 7 years. Sorry you don't like it. My lady thinks it's hot and if you saw her, you'd want her to think you were hot.

Maybe you should have an avatar of your lady then rather than you.

 

[Not Nipsey's Alias]

BTW John,

Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

I used to be a safari guide for 7 years. Sorry you don't like it. My lady thinks it's hot and if you saw her, you'd want her to think you were hot.

Maybe you should have an avatar of your lady then rather than you.

Her picture is posted in the free for all.

 

[higgins]

BTW John,

Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

I used to be a safari guide for 7 years. Sorry you don't like it. My lady thinks it's hot and if you saw her, you'd want her to think you were hot.

Maybe you should have an avatar of your lady then rather than you.

Her picture is posted in the free for all.

She is indeed a fine looking senorita, John. You're a lucky man

 

[Me & My Uncle]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.He has talent, don't get me wrong. But it is limited. He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison. I would not touch him within the top 15 WR. 5'9" people! When was the last dominant WR this height? Can you name any? At all?He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height. And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine. But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin?

 

[Not Nipsey's Alias]

BTW John,

Your avatar has got to be one of the worst I've ever seen.

I used to be a safari guide for 7 years. Sorry you don't like it. My lady thinks it's hot and if you saw her, you'd want her to think you were hot.

Maybe you should have an avatar of your lady then rather than you.

Her picture is posted in the free for all.

She is indeed a fine looking senorita, John. You're a lucky man

Appreciated.

 

[Burning Sensation]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong. But it is limited. He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison.

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR. 5'9" people! When was the last dominant WR this height? Can you name any? At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height. And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine. But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin?

So, would you take Mushin over Steve Smith? Would/did you last year?

 

[diesel7982]

Do you believe Smith is better/just as talented as Muhammad?

Without question. He's a gamebreaker who can do as much after the catch than anyone in the league.\ Thats why he struggles to break 13 ypc as a #1 WR The guy is a possesion receiver and a deep threat. Also, my league doesn't give points based on ypc...yours does?.

Do you expect the Panthers to lose half of their starting defense to injury again?

No, but like any team, injuries happen.Yes, but you do realize the odds of that many key injuries happening again are very, very low, correct? hence the "no"

Do you expect their top 4 RBs will be injured again?

Given who those RB's are, I'd say there's a chance. Again, we're talking low odds "hence the "chance"

Do you expect the Panthers to be playing from behind, unable to run the ball well, and thus forced to throw quite a bit again?

It's possible. Only if the other two low odd scenarios both happen Hence "It's possible"

Do you believe that Keary Colbert(2nd year), Rod Gardner, and Ricky Proehl are less of an option to steal receptions than Keary Colbert(rookie), Ricky Proehl, and Karl Hankton?

I believe more talent on the other side equals MORE quality chances for Smith, not less. You should ask Marvin Harrison about that To equate the weapons on carolina to the emergence of players in Indy isn't really fair. Also, did Marvin suck recently and I wasn't informed?

If the answer to all of those questions are yes, then it might be reasonable that Smith could approximate Muhammad's numbers.  (This is not even including the injury, which in addition to a broken fibula also tore several tendons in his ankle)

Bones heal even stronger than before they broke. Are torn ankle tendons a reason for concern? Has anyone seen anything indicating they could be a problem? I honestly don't know. I read his ankle was sore after his first preseason game, but Fox said that was to be expected.Yikes...ok. When a player suffers a bone injury, yes, it is typically not a concern, because as you said, bones heal back stronger. But, you do realize this was a surgery situation right? One with a long recovery period? One that probably kept him from physical activities for 6+ months? Ankle soreness is to be expected...because he tore a bunch of tendons in it. That doesnt mean its not a huge deal, and that doesnt mean it won't slow him down. It will likely be a pain issue he'll have to deal with throughout the season. Not saying the injury is a huge deal, but to flippantly write it off is just silly, especially with all of the other factors working against him It's posts like this that encourage the casual fans to NOT post in the shark pool. Lose the attitude. Are you a doctor or did you just stay at a holiday inn last night? ool.

John,This is the Shark Pool. I would expect anyone strongly voicing an opinion here to have some kind of f'ing clue what they are talking about. If this is too much for you, FFtoday would be a great place to meet guys on your level.

This might surprise you, but alot of us don't want "casual fans" here. Its those types of people that have severely driven down the quality of the board over the last few years. I'm sure Joe and Co. love having the influx of guys who don't know what in the hell they are talking about, because no matter how stupid any one person is, they likely have $25 to sign up. If you are one of these guys, sit back, quiet down, and learn. Ask questions. If you want to voice your opinion about things you dont really know about, like i said, FFtoday, great place.

 

[EBF]

I've never been a huge Steve Smith fan. He's a gamer and he certainly has skills, but he's a bit small and he's only had one good season. I thought he was overrated entering last season and my opinion hasn't changed. He's a good player, but he's too small to be used on fades in the red zone and I think his Gardner and Colbert will steal a lot of his thunder. Looking at ADP, I'd be inclined to take Michael Clayton (if healthy) and Drew Bennett over him. I also think that a strong case can be made for Donald Driver, Isaac Bruce, Roy Williams, and possibly the two Arizona guys.

 

[abe froman]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong. But it is limited. He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison.

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR. 5'9" people! When was the last dominant WR this height? Can you name any? At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height. And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine. But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin?

I would think that Smiths speed is what makes him a top WR. True that he will not be involved in too many of those tear drops to the deep corners like mushy, but theres no need to when he distances himself from the secondary and goes for 30+ yds for the TD..two different recievers with 2 different strengths. In my opinion Id rather burn the defense on a 30= yarder-especially since my leagues gives 1 point per every ten yards of the TD play. A 15 lob gets me only 1 extra point..

 

[Studs & Duds]

Do you believe Smith is better/just as talented as Muhammad?

Without question. He's a gamebreaker who can do as much after the catch than anyone in the league.\ Thats why he struggles to break 13 ypc as a #1 WR The guy is a possesion receiver and a deep threat. Also, my league doesn't give points based on ypc...yours does?.

Do you expect the Panthers to lose half of their starting defense to injury again?

No, but like any team, injuries happen.Yes, but you do realize the odds of that many key injuries happening again are very, very low, correct? hence the "no"

Do you expect their top 4 RBs will be injured again?

Given who those RB's are, I'd say there's a chance. Again, we're talking low odds "hence the "chance"

Do you expect the Panthers to be playing from behind, unable to run the ball well, and thus forced to throw quite a bit again?

It's possible. Only if the other two low odd scenarios both happen Hence "It's possible"

Do you believe that Keary Colbert(2nd year), Rod Gardner, and Ricky Proehl are less of an option to steal receptions than Keary Colbert(rookie), Ricky Proehl, and Karl Hankton?

I believe more talent on the other side equals MORE quality chances for Smith, not less. You should ask Marvin Harrison about that To equate the weapons on carolina to the emergence of players in Indy isn't really fair. Also, did Marvin suck recently and I wasn't informed?

If the answer to all of those questions are yes, then it might be reasonable that Smith could approximate Muhammad's numbers.  (This is not even including the injury, which in addition to a broken fibula also tore several tendons in his ankle)

Bones heal even stronger than before they broke. Are torn ankle tendons a reason for concern? Has anyone seen anything indicating they could be a problem? I honestly don't know. I read his ankle was sore after his first preseason game, but Fox said that was to be expected.Yikes...ok. When a player suffers a bone injury, yes, it is typically not a concern, because as you said, bones heal back stronger. But, you do realize this was a surgery situation right? One with a long recovery period? One that probably kept him from physical activities for 6+ months? Ankle soreness is to be expected...because he tore a bunch of tendons in it. That doesnt mean its not a huge deal, and that doesnt mean it won't slow him down. It will likely be a pain issue he'll have to deal with throughout the season. Not saying the injury is a huge deal, but to flippantly write it off is just silly, especially with all of the other factors working against him It's posts like this that encourage the casual fans to NOT post in the shark pool. Lose the attitude. Are you a doctor or did you just stay at a holiday inn last night? ool.

John,This is the Shark Pool. I would expect anyone strongly voicing an opinion here to have some kind of f'ing clue what they are talking about. If this is too much for you, FFtoday would be a great place to meet guys on your level.

This might surprise you, but alot of us don't want "casual fans" here. Its those types of people that have severely driven down the quality of the board over the last few years. I'm sure Joe and Co. love having the influx of guys who don't know what in the hell they are talking about, because no matter how stupid any one person is, they likely have $25 to sign up. If you are one of these guys, sit back, quiet down, and learn. Ask questions. If you want to voice your opinion about things you dont really know about, like i said, FFtoday, great place.

Wow, ease up, guy.

 

[packersfan]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

I've been touting Smith but I haven't had my draft yet so he's not on my team. And it's possible he won't be but that won't stop me from touting him. I think he has tremendous talent and potential.

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is

You might want to tell the Panthers that. After all, they had Smith as their go-to WR -- ahead of Muhammad -- both in 2003 and heading into last season before Smith got hurt.

 

[Buckychudd]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong. But it is limited. He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison.

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR. 5'9" people! When was the last dominant WR this height? Can you name any? At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height. And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine. But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin?

No, he took Moose's spot two years ago.....Moose got it back last year because Smith was injured.

We can argue about who was the better WR in their primes, but no question right now according to John Fox, Jake Delhomme, and probably even Moose himself.....Steve Smith is the better WR.

 

[abe froman]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong.  But it is limited.  He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison. 

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR.  5'9" people!  When was the last dominant WR this height?  Can you name any?  At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height.  And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine.  But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin? 

I would think that Smiths speed is what makes him a top WR. True that he will not be involved in too many of those tear drops to the deep corners like mushy, but theres no need to when he distances himself from the secondary and goes for 30+ yds for the TD..two different recievers with 2 different strengths. In my opinion Id rather burn the defense on a 30= yarder-especially since my leagues gives 1 point per every ten yards of the TD play. A 15 lob gets me only 1 extra point..

In addition Im pretty sure Harrison and Holt havent made their names by out jumping their defenders to make the catch...pretty sure they rely on speed and good hands..one can argue that steve smith has both of those qualities -dome & turf. he should put up top 10 numbers without a doubt..sig bet?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

for those who think not having a complementary WR is a huge detriment, how do you explain the year Muhsin Muhammad just had?I see the following similarities between Muhammad's 2004 situation and Drew Bennett's 2005 situation:no legit #2 WRinconsistent running gamepoor defensegood QB#1 WR has prototype size with speed to go deepsome might say Drew Bennett isn't as good of a WR as Muhammad is, and I would concede that point. But, he doesn't have to be in order to put up top-15 numbers in Tennessee this year.As for Steve Smith, his best season saw him compile 1100 yards and 7 TDs. You know who put up numbers like that in 2004?Michael ClaytonDarrell JacksonRod SmithDerrick MasonJimmy SmithEddie KennisonAndre JohnsonAshley LelieNate Burlesonhe definitely deserves to be drafted in the top-20, but does anyone realistically see him reaching 1300 yards or double digit TDs this year? that's probably what he would need to crack the top-10 and I don't think he has it in him.

 

[Buckychudd]

he definitely deserves to be drafted in the top-20, but does anyone realistically see him reaching 1300 yards or double digit TDs this year? that's probably what he would need to crack the top-10 and I don't think he has it in him.

I actually wouldn't have thought it.....But last year a lesser WR took his position and put up #1 numbers.

So yes, 1300 yds and double digits doesn't seem like that much of a stretch.

 

[Studs & Duds]

for those who think not having a complementary WR is a huge detriment, how do you explain the year Muhsin Muhammad just had?

I see the following similarities between Muhammad's 2004 situation and Drew Bennett's 2005 situation:

no legit #2 WR

inconsistent running game

poor defense

good QB

#1 WR has prototype size with speed to go deep

some might say Drew Bennett isn't as good of a WR as Muhammad is, and I would concede that point. But, he doesn't have to be in order to put up top-15 numbers in Tennessee this year.

As for Steve Smith, his best season saw him compile 1100 yards and 7 TDs. You know who put up numbers like that in 2004?

Michael Clayton

Darrell Jackson

Rod Smith

Derrick Mason

Jimmy Smith

Eddie Kennison

Andre Johnson

Ashley Lelie

Nate Burleson

he definitely deserves to be drafted in the top-20, but does anyone realistically see him reaching 1300 yards or double digit TDs this year? that's probably what he would need to crack the top-10 and I don't think he has it in him.

I'm not sure I agree with you on some of your points, but that's a quality post right there.

 

[Me & My Uncle]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong.  But it is limited.  He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison. 

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR.  5'9" people!  When was the last dominant WR this height?  Can you name any?  At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height.  And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine.  But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin? 

So, would you take Mushin over Steve Smith? Would/did you last year?

I took neither. Never liked Smith. Used to own Muhsin back in the day, but not last year. I never expected him to bounce back like that, but it was kinda fluky. I do not expect Muhsin to do much in Chicago, though I bet he would like Blake's passes if he becomes starter.

 

[Burning Sensation]

for those who think not having a complementary WR is a huge detriment, how do you explain the year Muhsin Muhammad just had?

I see the following similarities between Muhammad's 2004 situation and Drew Bennett's 2005 situation:

no legit #2 WR

inconsistent running game

poor defense

good QB

#1 WR has prototype size with speed to go deep

some might say Drew Bennett isn't as good of a WR as Muhammad is, and I would concede that point. But, he doesn't have to be in order to put up top-15 numbers in Tennessee this year.

As for Steve Smith, his best season saw him compile 1100 yards and 7 TDs. You know who put up numbers like that in 2004?

Michael Clayton

Darrell Jackson

Rod Smith

Derrick Mason

Jimmy Smith

Eddie Kennison

Andre Johnson

Ashley Lelie

Nate Burleson

he definitely deserves to be drafted in the top-20, but does anyone realistically see him reaching 1300 yards or double digit TDs this year? that's probably what he would need to crack the top-10 and I don't think he has it in him.

Aaron, If you were the GM of the Panthers, and had a choice between Mushin and Smith(assuming everything else equal, salary etc.) who would you rather have? Also, since nobody else wanted to answer this, who did you have ranked higher last year, Smith or Mushy? how about this year? After the 2003 regular season, if you were going to do a playoff draft, which of the two would have taken first?

 

[packersfan]

he definitely deserves to be drafted in the top-20, but does anyone realistically see him reaching 1300 yards or double digit TDs this year? that's probably what he would need to crack the top-10 and I don't think he has it in him.

I think he can reach double-digit TDs. I'm not sure about 1,300 yards and as much as I like Smith I don't view him as a Top 10 WR. I view him just outside that range -- in the same area as guys like Jackson and Burleson and slightly ahead of guys like Bennett, Clayton and Roy Williams. As far as the TDs go, he's on a team that will throw the ball with a QB whose game is clearly on the rise. He lacks Muhammad's size and that's not to be ignored -- especially in the Red Zone -- but he's more explosive and has more of an ability to take a short slant route to the house. Whereas Muhammad could feast in the Red Zone I think Smith has greater potential to score from outside the 20. Plus, if he remains the Panthers' punt returner he provides TD potential in that area as well for those who are in leagues that would get any of his special teams TDs. From 2001-03 he had 6 TD returns on punts or kickoffs. He clearly has big-play potential.

 

[Burning Sensation]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong.  But it is limited.  He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison. 

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR.  5'9" people!  When was the last dominant WR this height?  Can you name any?  At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height.  And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine.  But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin?  

So, would you take Mushin over Steve Smith? Would/did you last year?

I took neither. Never liked Smith. Used to own Muhsin back in the day, but not last year. I never expected him to bounce back like that, but it was kinda fluky. I do not expect Muhsin to do much in Chicago, though I bet he would like Blake's passes if he becomes starter.

SOOOO, what to you contribute Mushins career year to last year? His elite skills? or the system? Is Mushin that good that no other WR can post similar numbers as the #1 WR in Carolina this year? If you were forced by gun point to select one of the two this year, or last year, which one would you take?

 

[Not Nipsey's Alias]

John,

This is the Shark Pool. I would expect anyone strongly voicing an opinion here to have some kind of f'ing clue what they are talking about. If this is too much for you, FFtoday would be a great place to meet guys on your level.

This might surprise you, but alot of us don't want "casual fans" here. Its those types of people that have severely driven down the quality of the board over the last few years. I'm sure Joe and Co. love having the influx of guys who don't know what in the hell they are talking about, because no matter how stupid any one person is, they likely have $25 to sign up. If you are one of these guys, sit back, quiet down, and learn. Ask questions. If you want to voice your opinion about things you dont really know about, like i said, FFtoday, great place.

Wow. No need to be an #######. If you feel this thread and my contributions in it don't add to the forum, perhaps you should take your 15 year old rump over to fftoday. Either way, whether you view yourself as an expert or as a novice, there's no need to condescend to another person on a fantasy football message board.Good luck with the acne. ool.

 

[Capella]

Do you believe Smith is better/just as talented as Muhammad?

Without question. He's a gamebreaker who can do as much after the catch than anyone in the league.\ Thats why he struggles to break 13 ypc as a #1 WR The guy is a possesion receiver and a deep threat. Also, my league doesn't give points based on ypc...yours does?.

Do you expect the Panthers to lose half of their starting defense to injury again?

No, but like any team, injuries happen.Yes, but you do realize the odds of that many key injuries happening again are very, very low, correct? hence the "no"

Do you expect their top 4 RBs will be injured again?

Given who those RB's are, I'd say there's a chance. Again, we're talking low odds "hence the "chance"

Do you expect the Panthers to be playing from behind, unable to run the ball well, and thus forced to throw quite a bit again?

It's possible. Only if the other two low odd scenarios both happen Hence "It's possible"

Do you believe that Keary Colbert(2nd year), Rod Gardner, and Ricky Proehl are less of an option to steal receptions than Keary Colbert(rookie), Ricky Proehl, and Karl Hankton?

I believe more talent on the other side equals MORE quality chances for Smith, not less. You should ask Marvin Harrison about that To equate the weapons on carolina to the emergence of players in Indy isn't really fair. Also, did Marvin suck recently and I wasn't informed?

If the answer to all of those questions are yes, then it might be reasonable that Smith could approximate Muhammad's numbers.  (This is not even including the injury, which in addition to a broken fibula also tore several tendons in his ankle)

Bones heal even stronger than before they broke. Are torn ankle tendons a reason for concern? Has anyone seen anything indicating they could be a problem? I honestly don't know. I read his ankle was sore after his first preseason game, but Fox said that was to be expected.Yikes...ok. When a player suffers a bone injury, yes, it is typically not a concern, because as you said, bones heal back stronger. But, you do realize this was a surgery situation right? One with a long recovery period? One that probably kept him from physical activities for 6+ months? Ankle soreness is to be expected...because he tore a bunch of tendons in it. That doesnt mean its not a huge deal, and that doesnt mean it won't slow him down. It will likely be a pain issue he'll have to deal with throughout the season. Not saying the injury is a huge deal, but to flippantly write it off is just silly, especially with all of the other factors working against him It's posts like this that encourage the casual fans to NOT post in the shark pool. Lose the attitude. Are you a doctor or did you just stay at a holiday inn last night? ool.

John,This is the Shark Pool. I would expect anyone strongly voicing an opinion here to have some kind of f'ing clue what they are talking about. If this is too much for you, FFtoday would be a great place to meet guys on your level.

This might surprise you, but alot of us don't want "casual fans" here. Its those types of people that have severely driven down the quality of the board over the last few years. I'm sure Joe and Co. love having the influx of guys who don't know what in the hell they are talking about, because no matter how stupid any one person is, they likely have $25 to sign up. If you are one of these guys, sit back, quiet down, and learn. Ask questions. If you want to voice your opinion about things you dont really know about, like i said, FFtoday, great place.

 

[Me & My Uncle]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong.  But it is limited.  He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison. 

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR.  5'9" people!  When was the last dominant WR this height?  Can you name any?  At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height.  And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine.  But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin?  

So, would you take Mushin over Steve Smith? Would/did you last year?

I took neither. Never liked Smith. Used to own Muhsin back in the day, but not last year. I never expected him to bounce back like that, but it was kinda fluky. I do not expect Muhsin to do much in Chicago, though I bet he would like Blake's passes if he becomes starter.

SOOOO, what to you contribute Mushins career year to last year? His elite skills? or the system? Is Mushin that good that no other WR can post similar numbers as the #1 WR in Carolina this year? If you were forced by gun point to select one of the two this year, or last year, which one would you take?

Muhsin got hot because he was the only option, and despite the double coverage, he was able to sky for a lot of deep balls for TDs. That is not an option for Smith. So the situation does not transfer.Last year, with a gun to my head, I would have taken Smith over MM because I thought MM was washed up. If MM was still there, I would take him in a second. In Chicago, who knows. Who cares?

Smith is overrated. No way does a 5'9" WR have huge upside...period.

 

[Burning Sensation]

These types of threads always bring out the owners of said player, which explains the overall positive feeling about this guy.

He has talent, don't get me wrong.  But it is limited.  He aspires to be the next Derrick Mason, not the next Marvin Harrison. 

I would not touch him within the top 15 WR.  5'9" people!  When was the last dominant WR this height?  Can you name any?  At all?

He is nowhere near the WR that Muhsin is, not with that height.  And if you want to say he is taking Muhsin's spot in the offense, that is fine.  But do you think he will be catching all those lob passes in the end zone like Muhsin?  

So, would you take Mushin over Steve Smith? Would/did you last year?

I took neither. Never liked Smith. Used to own Muhsin back in the day, but not last year. I never expected him to bounce back like that, but it was kinda fluky. I do not expect Muhsin to do much in Chicago, though I bet he would like Blake's passes if he becomes starter.

SOOOO, what to you contribute Mushins career year to last year? His elite skills? or the system? Is Mushin that good that no other WR can post similar numbers as the #1 WR in Carolina this year? If you were forced by gun point to select one of the two this year, or last year, which one would you take?

Muhsin got hot because he was the only option, and despite the double coverage, he was able to sky for a lot of deep balls for TDs. That is not an option for Smith. So the situation does not transfer.Last year, with a gun to my head, I would have taken Smith over MM because I thought MM was washed up. If MM was still there, I would take him in a second. In Chicago, who knows. Who cares?

Smith is overrated. No way does a 5'9" WR have huge upside...period.

If healthy, Smith WILL be a top 10 WR, i am as sure about this than anything else in FF this year.......and yes, i will be bumping this thread periodically over the season, right or wrong.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Aaron, If you were the GM of the Panthers, and had a choice between Mushin and Smith(assuming everything else equal, salary etc.) who would you rather have?

Also, since nobody else wanted to answer this, who did you have ranked higher last year, Smith or Mushy? how about this year? After the 2003 regular season, if you were going to do a playoff draft, which of the two would have taken first?

if they were both 25 years old, I would take Muhammad in a heartbeat.obviously, Smith was ranked higher last year.

BUT, here are a few old posts of mine for your consideration:

Muhammad has a lot of upside based on how strong he finished last year. If he can stay healthy and doesn't suffer the post SB hangover, he could easily be a signficant force again with top-30 potential.

Despite not being able to inspire awe in Mr. Wimer, and starting out the 2003 season with only 153 yards in 5 games and 298 receiving yards after 9 games, Muhammad put up 539 yards over his final 7 games (would prorate to a 1232 yd season ) and finished as the #33 ranked fantasy WR. He continued that strong performance 4 games into the postseason, including the biggest stage in the world against the Patriots whose pass defense had shut down the high octane Colts just 1 game earlier.

I can understand looking at season by season trends...but, sometimes they don't tell the entire story. Muhammad was a new player once Steve Smith emerged as the go-to WR and took most of the defensive attention away from him. Furthermore, the Panthers running game draws even more attention, which allows Muhammad plenty of 1-on-1 matchups with often inferior 2nd CBs that he can use his size and surprisingly still capable wheels to beat.

Who was the Panthers QB in those years you are looking at? Rodney "I should have retired 5 years ago" Peete and Chris "I'm a 40 year old rookie" Weinke?

Come on guys. Muhammad has VALUE written all over him this year. Delhomme has no qualms about throwing the ball up for big Moose to come down with it when they need a big play. Steve Smith has become the possession WR on this team like Hines Ward in Pittsburgh...but Muhammad showed he's capable of making big plays like Plaxico did frequently in 2002, and Muhammad will likely be the primary receiving target in the red zone whenever they decide not to run it in.

My biggest (and only) concern with Muhammad is his health. He's had trouble staying healthy in the past and often gets knicked up by nagging injuries. But, if he picks up where he left off last year and can stay healthy, I seriously would not be shocked if he ended up outscoring Steve Smith this year.

I'm just starting to warm up on Muhammad's chances this year after looking at him more closely. I didn't list him in my top 40 but I may consider doing so in the next round. As I mentioned, my biggest concern is his ability to stay healthy. And, like most people, I had written him off going into last season. But, his last 11 games were very impressive to me, and I think provide plenty of reason for optimism. Fortunately, he can be had at a point in the draft where his risk will be minimized.

Rating him around the #40 WR or lower is hardly what I would call "overvaluing" a guy who has been a top-10 WR in the past and had a phenomenal run to end 2003 with a QB that can finally play compared to the bags of crap he has had in seasons past.

P.S. He's only 31 years old. Hardly seems reasonable that everyone automatically assumes he's "lost a step" after a few down years on some atrocious football teams. It wasn't just the Patriots game that he made big plays in. Check out his yards per catch on the year...over 19 games, he put up nearly 2 more yards per catch than at any time since his rookie season. Was every secondary he faced injured? Luck and "bounces" and injury excuses can only explain so much.

as for him having lost a step...how do you account for his biggest yards per catch average by a significant margin in the past 7 years? He ranked 18th in the league in that statistic. I believe most players that have lost a step tend to gain fewer yards per pass play as opposed to more.

I agree the Panthers don't throw the ball a ton....but I'm honestly not projecting him to tear things up and continue his torrid pace over an entire season. I'm just saying that the way he finished provides plenty of reason for optimism that the old Muhammad could be back this year. The last time he had a decent QB throwing him the ball (2000, Beuerlein), he finished as the 16th ranked fantasy WR in the league and tied for the league lead in receptions with 102. Whereas you put a lot of faith in his 2001 and 2002 numbers with Weinke and Peete at the controls...I'm willing to give more weight to his 2000 and 2003 seasons with Beuerlein and Delhomme at the controls.

Muhammad is 31 years old, not 33. For a possible comparison player, check out McCardell's numbers from 2002 to 2003. He went from being ranked the 45th fantasy WR to #10 in his 2nd year in Tampa with Brad Johnson and Gruden as coach. His y/r jumped by 3 full yards and he was 33 years old at the time.

If you think that he can maintain that 65% conversion percentage, then even if you give him 100 targets or so again this year, he'll wind up with about 65 catches, which is pretty solid for a WR and could get him near 1000 yards if he's able to maintain his y/r from last year. If you believe last year was a statisical anomaly and that he'll regress towards the mean in terms of his completion % and y/r, then obviously he'll need more targets to make an impact.

However, expecting some improvement from a 31 year old former Pro Bowl WR in a contract year, who played with 2 of the worst QBs in the league in 2001 and 2002 but finally has a legit NFL starting QB to throw to him and an established quality WR opposite him, does not sound all that far fetched to me. Some may expect Delhomme to regress after his dream season, but I think he could also improve in his 2nd year as a starter.

I don't think Muhammad at 31 is ready for the ol' glue factory just yet. He showed last year he still has some fight left in him.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Aaron, If you were the GM of the Panthers, and had a choice between Mushin and Smith(assuming everything else equal, salary etc.) who would you rather have?

Also, since nobody else wanted to answer this, who did you have ranked higher last year, Smith or Mushy? how about this year? After the 2003 regular season, if you were going to do a playoff draft, which of the two would have taken first?

if they were both 25 years old, I would take Muhammad in a heartbeat.obviously, Smith was ranked higher last year.

BUT, here are a few old posts of mine for your consideration:

Muhammad has a lot of upside based on how strong he finished last year. If he can stay healthy and doesn't suffer the post SB hangover, he could easily be a signficant force again with top-30 potential.

Despite not being able to inspire awe in Mr. Wimer, and starting out the 2003 season with only 153 yards in 5 games and 298 receiving yards after 9 games, Muhammad put up 539 yards over his final 7 games (would prorate to a 1232 yd season  ) and finished as the #33 ranked fantasy WR. He continued that strong performance 4 games into the postseason, including the biggest stage in the world against the Patriots whose pass defense had shut down the high octane Colts just 1 game earlier.

I can understand looking at season by season trends...but, sometimes they don't tell the entire story. Muhammad was a new player once Steve Smith emerged as the go-to WR and took most of the defensive attention away from him. Furthermore, the Panthers running game draws even more attention, which allows Muhammad plenty of 1-on-1 matchups with often inferior 2nd CBs that he can use his size and surprisingly still capable wheels to beat.

Who was the Panthers QB in those years you are looking at? Rodney "I should have retired 5 years ago" Peete and Chris "I'm a 40 year old rookie" Weinke?

Come on guys. Muhammad has VALUE written all over him this year. Delhomme has no qualms about throwing the ball up for big Moose to come down with it when they need a big play. Steve Smith has become the possession WR on this team like Hines Ward in Pittsburgh...but Muhammad showed he's capable of making big plays like Plaxico did frequently in 2002, and Muhammad will likely be the primary receiving target in the red zone whenever they decide not to run it in.

My biggest (and only) concern with Muhammad is his health. He's had trouble staying healthy in the past and often gets knicked up by nagging injuries. But, if he picks up where he left off last year and can stay healthy, I seriously would not be shocked if he ended up outscoring Steve Smith this year.

I'm just starting to warm up on Muhammad's chances this year after looking at him more closely. I didn't list him in my top 40 but I may consider doing so in the next round. As I mentioned, my biggest concern is his ability to stay healthy. And, like most people, I had written him off going into last season. But, his last 11 games were very impressive to me, and I think provide plenty of reason for optimism. Fortunately, he can be had at a point in the draft where his risk will be minimized.

Rating him around the #40 WR or lower is hardly what I would call "overvaluing" a guy who has been a top-10 WR in the past and had a phenomenal run to end 2003 with a QB that can finally play compared to the bags of crap he has had in seasons past.

P.S. He's only 31 years old. Hardly seems reasonable that everyone automatically assumes he's "lost a step" after a few down years on some atrocious football teams. It wasn't just the Patriots game that he made big plays in. Check out his yards per catch on the year...over 19 games, he put up nearly 2 more yards per catch than at any time since his rookie season. Was every secondary he faced injured? Luck and "bounces" and injury excuses can only explain so much.

as for him having lost a step...how do you account for his biggest yards per catch average by a significant margin in the past 7 years? He ranked 18th in the league in that statistic. I believe most players that have lost a step tend to gain fewer yards per pass play as opposed to more.

I agree the Panthers don't throw the ball a ton....but I'm honestly not projecting him to tear things up and continue his torrid pace over an entire season. I'm just saying that the way he finished provides plenty of reason for optimism that the old Muhammad could be back this year. The last time he had a decent QB throwing him the ball (2000, Beuerlein), he finished as the 16th ranked fantasy WR in the league and tied for the league lead in receptions with 102. Whereas you put a lot of faith in his 2001 and 2002 numbers with Weinke and Peete at the controls...I'm willing to give more weight to his 2000 and 2003 seasons with Beuerlein and Delhomme at the controls.

Muhammad is 31 years old, not 33. For a possible comparison player, check out McCardell's numbers from 2002 to 2003. He went from being ranked the 45th fantasy WR to #10 in his 2nd year in Tampa with Brad Johnson and Gruden as coach. His y/r jumped by 3 full yards and he was 33 years old at the time.

If you think that he can maintain that 65% conversion percentage, then even if you give him 100 targets or so again this year, he'll wind up with about 65 catches, which is pretty solid for a WR and could get him near 1000 yards if he's able to maintain his y/r from last year. If you believe last year was a statisical anomaly and that he'll regress towards the mean in terms of his completion % and y/r, then obviously he'll need more targets to make an impact.

However, expecting some improvement from a 31 year old former Pro Bowl WR in a contract year, who played with 2 of the worst QBs in the league in 2001 and 2002 but finally has a legit NFL starting QB to throw to him and an established quality WR opposite him, does not sound all that far fetched to me. Some may expect Delhomme to regress after his dream season, but I think he could also improve in his 2nd year as a starter.

I don't think Muhammad at 31 is ready for the ol' glue factory just yet. He showed last year he still has some fight left in him.

Not bad, but i think if Smith stays healthy last year, he is the leading WR on the team. I dont have the numbers off hand, but i would be willing to bet that when both were healthy and starting, dating back to 2002(including playoffs) that Smith outperformed Mushy in at least 75% of the games.