Can someone splain to me why John Elway is considered the greatest QB (1 Viewer)

[Kev4029]

From an article that Mel Kiper wrote earlier this year, here is his list of best QBs that he has evaluated (he started doing drafts in '79):

1. John Elway (No. 1 pick, 1983)

2. Jim Kelly (No. 14, 1983)

3. Drew Bledsoe (No. 1, 1993)

4. Peyton Manning (No. 1, 1998)

5. Ryan Leaf (No. 2, 1998)

6. Vinny Testaverde (No. 1, 1987)

7. Andre Ware (No. 7, 1990)

8. Troy Aikman (No. 1, 1989)

9. Boomer Esiason (No. 38, 1984)

10. Steve Young (Round 1 of supplemental draft, 1984)

Luck would fit between Kelly and Elway.

 

[Tau837]

Like early in his career he would get lauded for making 4th quarter comebacks to which I always thought (1) why have you not been playing like that the entire game and (2) if you had been playing like that the entire game there would be no reason for a dramatic 4th quarter comeback.

As moleculo already posted, this was the Dan Reeves effect.

 

[grateful zed]

There are certain players that had a skill that was so elite, the worlds best athletes would stop and stare....Bo's power and speed, etc....Elway's arm was that.

Miguel Indurain had that as a cyclist.

 

[Ilov80s]

Sort of related, but I read this week that Brian Billick and the Ravens gave Jamarcus Russell the highest draft grade of any player they ever evaluated.

 

[menobrown]

Like early in his career he would get lauded for making 4th quarter comebacks to which I always thought (1) why have you not been playing like that the entire game and (2) if you had been playing like that the entire game there would be no reason for a dramatic 4th quarter comeback.

As moleculo already posted, this was the Dan Reeves effect.

He might have posted it but I don't have to agree with it.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Agree that there is a lot of hindsight bias going on here. No one is going to say that Luck is the best prospect since JaMarcus Russell or Jeff George or Vince Young.

 

[Bri]

I see someone mentioned Jeff George. Nice to see.

Personally, I recall Manning as THE prototypical prospect.

To be candid, I've never seen so many drool as they did with Vick.

They were wrong (the degree of adoration and just how awesome he was) but I wouldn't be surprised if you found someone calling him Barry Sanders with Dan Marino's arm. It was past love and made fans at this "shut up already" puking point.

If I had time, I bet I could find enough articles convincing you all he was a better prospect than Elway. Again, it's wrong, but it was laid on so thick about Vick.

 

[Bri]

Like early in his career he would get lauded for making 4th quarter comebacks to which I always thought (1) why have you not been playing like that the entire game and (2) if you had been playing like that the entire game there would be no reason for a dramatic 4th quarter comeback.

As moleculo already posted, this was the Dan Reeves effect.

IMO Roger Staubach effect.His name creeped up in articles every now and again for any young QB Reeves coached/drafted even when Reeves almost convinced people Tommy Maddox might be better than Elway.I think a lot of traditionalists believe Staubach the player and person is the prototype QB.The average age of members of this board might be too young now to remember, but I'm sure it's discussed elsewhere.

 

[nxmehta]

The real answer to this question is: Hindsight and confirmation bias.For anyone to be claimed as "the greatest prospect ever", they'd need to have been selected #1 overall, and had a successful NFL career (hindsight). That greatly reduces the competition here. Here's a list of #1 overall QB picks in the Super Bowl era who won at least one Super Bowl:Eli ManningPeyton ManningTroy AikmanSteve Young (* supplemental)John ElwayJim PlunkettTerry BradshawSo really, not a very impressive list. Young doesn't count because he went to the USFL first, and it's obvious that Plunkett, Bradshaw, and Eli were not highly regarded as can't-miss prospects. So essentially you're comparing Elway to Peyton and Aikman. Aikman was good but not on the same level. So, all the top prospects now are either "the best prospect since Manning" or "the best prospect since Elway". Those things get repeated enough that they become accepted as gospel, but I don't think that if Elway came out in the same draft as, say, Vick, that Elway would have been taken first. I am certain that if Manning and Elway came out in the same draft that Manning (all the physical tools, great college success, son of a QB/coach) would have been selected over Elway who had never managed to make a bowl game.

/thread

 

[menobrown]

The real answer to this question is: Hindsight and confirmation bias.For anyone to be claimed as "the greatest prospect ever", they'd need to have been selected #1 overall, and had a successful NFL career (hindsight). That greatly reduces the competition here. Here's a list of #1 overall QB picks in the Super Bowl era who won at least one Super Bowl:Eli ManningPeyton ManningTroy AikmanSteve Young (* supplemental)John ElwayJim PlunkettTerry BradshawSo really, not a very impressive list. Young doesn't count because he went to the USFL first, and it's obvious that Plunkett, Bradshaw, and Eli were not highly regarded as can't-miss prospects. So essentially you're comparing Elway to Peyton and Aikman. Aikman was good but not on the same level. So, all the top prospects now are either "the best prospect since Manning" or "the best prospect since Elway". Those things get repeated enough that they become accepted as gospel, but I don't think that if Elway came out in the same draft as, say, Vick, that Elway would have been taken first. I am certain that if Manning and Elway came out in the same draft that Manning (all the physical tools, great college success, son of a QB/coach) would have been selected over Elway who had never managed to make a bowl game.

/thread

I don't really agree mainly because I don't agree with the statement that the answer to the question is hindsight and confirmation bias.When discussing Elway in the context of greatest prospect ever what he did in his NFL career means nothing. What he did in his career once he got to the NFL is another discussion entirely. Same for every other QB mentioned in this thread. When discussing how a player rated as a prospect that implies you are only discussing how that player was perceived BEFORE he entered the NFL, not what he did once he got there. On that same idea if people say Luck is the best prospect since Elway they are not inferring Elway was a better QB than say Peyton or Brady, just a higher rated prospect when he entered the league.

 

[CalBear]

When discussing Elway in the context of greatest prospect ever what he did in his NFL career means nothing. What he did in his career once he got to the NFL is another discussion entirely. Same for every other QB mentioned in this thread. When discussing how a player rated as a prospect that implies you are only discussing how that player was perceived BEFORE he entered the NFL, not what he did once he got there. On that same idea if people say Luck is the best prospect since Elway they are not inferring Elway was a better QB than say Peyton or Brady, just a higher rated prospect when he entered the league.

The question isn't whether Elway was the greatest prospect ever. The question is why he is considered the greatest prospect ever. If Elway had flamed out in the NFL, it is 100% guaranteed that no one would still be talking about him as the greatest prospect ever in 2012, no matter how they had him rated in 1983, just like no one talks about Jeff George as one of the greatest prospects ever.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

It says something about a kid's arm when both the NFL and MLB were drafting him. Drafted by the Royals in 1979 and then the Yankees in 1981.

Per Wiki he had 60 scholarship invitations coming out of High School as the #1 prospect.

Being the son of a football coach probably helped in more ways than can be put on paper.

Went to a "smart" school, graduating with a degree in Economics. Physical phenom + has brains.

Excellent mechanics, pedigree, long history of excellence, brain smarts + football smarts, and exceptionally gifted physically. Heck of a package.

So if I understand correctly, Elway was a better prospect than Andrew Luck currently is because Elway was more proficient at playing a sport that isn't football and because Elway's father was a football coach whereas Andrew Luck's father is only a former NFL quarterback, who may have been a general manager and president of a football league but he was never a coach. Makes sense.

 

[menobrown]

When discussing Elway in the context of greatest prospect ever what he did in his NFL career means nothing. What he did in his career once he got to the NFL is another discussion entirely. Same for every other QB mentioned in this thread. When discussing how a player rated as a prospect that implies you are only discussing how that player was perceived BEFORE he entered the NFL, not what he did once he got there. On that same idea if people say Luck is the best prospect since Elway they are not inferring Elway was a better QB than say Peyton or Brady, just a higher rated prospect when he entered the league.

The question isn't whether Elway was the greatest prospect ever. The question is why he is considered the greatest prospect ever. If Elway had flamed out in the NFL, it is 100% guaranteed that no one would still be talking about him as the greatest prospect ever in 2012, no matter how they had him rated in 1983, just like no one talks about Jeff George as one of the greatest prospects ever.

Again I don't really agree. Jeff George had warts that Elway did not have when he entered the league. That's the thing with Elway. He was wart free.

George could throw a pretty football but there was more to it than that. For instance whereas Elway received high marks the mental side of things as a Stanford student who scored a 30 on his wonderlic and was the son of a coach Jeff George scored a 10 on his wonderlic. Jeff George committed to 3 colleges and played for 2 of them. This kind of thing can be a red flag. I don't know how well Jeff George ran but I don't recall him running as well as Elway.

Finally not everyone was so high on Jeff George when he entered the league. I submit this comment from Mel Kiper:

Kiper rated Illinois QB Jeff George as the 84th-best player in the 1990 draft; George was chosen No. 1 overall by Indianapolis; he went 46-78 as a starter plus a 1-2 playoff record, in 12 seasons with five NFL teams. As on-screen graphics were being prepared for 1990 draft show, someone at ESPN asked Kiper why George wasn't on the list of top prospects. "He said, 'Well, I can't put up a Top 40 list and not have the No. 1 guy.' I said, 'Well, put him 40th. If you have to put him somewhere, put him 40th,"' Kiper remembers.

 

[CalBear]

When discussing Elway in the context of greatest prospect ever what he did in his NFL career means nothing. What he did in his career once he got to the NFL is another discussion entirely. Same for every other QB mentioned in this thread. When discussing how a player rated as a prospect that implies you are only discussing how that player was perceived BEFORE he entered the NFL, not what he did once he got there. On that same idea if people say Luck is the best prospect since Elway they are not inferring Elway was a better QB than say Peyton or Brady, just a higher rated prospect when he entered the league.

The question isn't whether Elway was the greatest prospect ever. The question is why he is considered the greatest prospect ever. If Elway had flamed out in the NFL, it is 100% guaranteed that no one would still be talking about him as the greatest prospect ever in 2012, no matter how they had him rated in 1983, just like no one talks about Jeff George as one of the greatest prospects ever.

Again I don't really agree. Jeff George had warts that Elway did not have when he entered the league. That's the thing with Elway. He was wart free.

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

 

[moleculo]

When discussing Elway in the context of greatest prospect ever what he did in his NFL career means nothing. What he did in his career once he got to the NFL is another discussion entirely. Same for every other QB mentioned in this thread. When discussing how a player rated as a prospect that implies you are only discussing how that player was perceived BEFORE he entered the NFL, not what he did once he got there. On that same idea if people say Luck is the best prospect since Elway they are not inferring Elway was a better QB than say Peyton or Brady, just a higher rated prospect when he entered the league.

The question isn't whether Elway was the greatest prospect ever. The question is why he is considered the greatest prospect ever. If Elway had flamed out in the NFL, it is 100% guaranteed that no one would still be talking about him as the greatest prospect ever in 2012, no matter how they had him rated in 1983, just like no one talks about Jeff George as one of the greatest prospects ever.

Again I don't really agree. Jeff George had warts that Elway did not have when he entered the league. That's the thing with Elway. He was wart free.

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

How many bowl games wete there in 1982? Coming from a school like Stanford, I'm not sure this the wart you think it is.

 

[CalBear]

Finally not everyone was so high on Jeff George when he entered the league. I submit this comment from Mel Kiper: Kiper rated Illinois QB Jeff George as the 84th-best player in the 1990 draft; George was chosen No. 1 overall by Indianapolis; he went 46-78 as a starter plus a 1-2 playoff record, in 12 seasons with five NFL teams. As on-screen graphics were being prepared for 1990 draft show, someone at ESPN asked Kiper why George wasn't on the list of top prospects. "He said, 'Well, I can't put up a Top 40 list and not have the No. 1 guy.' I said, 'Well, put him 40th. If you have to put him somewhere, put him 40th,"' Kiper remembers.

This is another place where hindsight comes into play; anyone who rated Elway as the #84 player in the draft in 1983 would not be publicizing that fact today.

 

[menobrown]

When discussing Elway in the context of greatest prospect ever what he did in his NFL career means nothing. What he did in his career once he got to the NFL is another discussion entirely. Same for every other QB mentioned in this thread. When discussing how a player rated as a prospect that implies you are only discussing how that player was perceived BEFORE he entered the NFL, not what he did once he got there. On that same idea if people say Luck is the best prospect since Elway they are not inferring Elway was a better QB than say Peyton or Brady, just a higher rated prospect when he entered the league.

The question isn't whether Elway was the greatest prospect ever. The question is why he is considered the greatest prospect ever. If Elway had flamed out in the NFL, it is 100% guaranteed that no one would still be talking about him as the greatest prospect ever in 2012, no matter how they had him rated in 1983, just like no one talks about Jeff George as one of the greatest prospects ever.

Again I don't really agree. Jeff George had warts that Elway did not have when he entered the league. That's the thing with Elway. He was wart free.

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

No it's almost laughable considering the only thing that kept Elway from a bowl game was the "the play". College football was a different game than it is today due to scholarship limitations. Elway was Pac 10 player of the year twice and considered by some to be one of the best college football players ever. The year after the left Stanford they won one game.There was no shame in his collegiate performance.Again you contend George was rated on the level as Elway when he came out. I've shown you Kipers comments rating him 84th. That was not with the power of hindsight and I'm pretty sure you won't ever find anyone who was down on Elway as an NFL prospect the way Kiper was down on George. Again, that has squat to do with hindsight.

 

[CalBear]

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

How many bowl games wete there in 1982? Coming from a school like Stanford, I'm not sure this the wart you think it is.

He had a losing record in college. Stanford would have gone to the Garden State Bowl in 1982 if they hadn't wound up with a losing record that year.Again, consider a draft where Manning and Elway were coming out at the same time. Both have great mechanics, big arms, elite pedigree. But one of them went 40-9, went to four bowl games (winning 3) and won an SEC championship, and the other one went 20-23 and never went to a bowl game. Do you really think Elway would have been chosen over Manning in that scenario? At best he would have been viewed like Jay Cutler, who was the third QB taken in his draft despite having better mechanics than Leinart or Young.

 

[menobrown]

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

How many bowl games wete there in 1982? Coming from a school like Stanford, I'm not sure this the wart you think it is.

He had a losing record in college. Stanford would have gone to the Garden State Bowl in 1982 if they hadn't wound up with a losing record that year.Again, consider a draft where Manning and Elway were coming out at the same time. Both have great mechanics, big arms, elite pedigree. But one of them went 40-9, went to four bowl games (winning 3) and won an SEC championship, and the other one went 20-23 and never went to a bowl game. Do you really think Elway would have been chosen over Manning in that scenario? At best he would have been viewed like Jay Cutler, who was the third QB taken in his draft despite having better mechanics than Leinart or Young.

No because Peyton has a strong arm but not Elway strong nor is he as good an athlete. If how teams did in college was the end all than Tee Martin should have gone in the first round because he actually accomoplished what Peyton could not and while that was hindsight when Peyton got drafted it was not when Tee went in the 5th round.

 

[CalBear]

No because Peyton has a strong arm but not Elway strong nor is he as good an athlete. If how teams did in college was the end all than Tee Martin should have gone in the first round because he actually accomoplished what Peyton could not and while that was hindsight when Peyton got drafted it was not when Tee went in the 5th round.

You're being obtuse. Obviously won-loss record is not the primary determinant of where QBs get drafted, but surely it's a factor when deciding between two excellent prospects. It surely counts as a "wart" on Elway's prospects coming out of college, which is what I was responding to.As for Elway having a bigger arm than Manning, asserting that over and over won't make it true.

 

[moleculo]

No because Peyton has a strong arm but not Elway strong nor is he as good an athlete. If how teams did in college was the end all than Tee Martin should have gone in the first round because he actually accomoplished what Peyton could not and while that was hindsight when Peyton got drafted it was not when Tee went in the 5th round.

You're being obtuse. Obviously won-loss record is not the primary determinant of where QBs get drafted, but surely it's a factor when deciding between two excellent prospects. It surely counts as a "wart" on Elway's prospects coming out of college, which is what I was responding to.As for Elway having a bigger arm than Manning, asserting that over and over won't make it true.

denying it over and over won't make it false either.

 

[golfguy]

... he took 3 very subpar teams to the super bowl on his back. his ...

Elway was closer to the weak link on those teams than anything else.

wow you have said some really stupid stuff over the years, but that might take the cake. their is no way they sniff the super bowl against the giants, washington ot SF without elway.

 

[moleculo]

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

How many bowl games wete there in 1982? Coming from a school like Stanford, I'm not sure this the wart you think it is.

He had a losing record in college. Stanford would have gone to the Garden State Bowl in 1982 if they hadn't wound up with a losing record that year.Again, consider a draft where Manning and Elway were coming out at the same time. Both have great mechanics, big arms, elite pedigree. But one of them went 40-9, went to four bowl games (winning 3) and won an SEC championship, and the other one went 20-23 and never went to a bowl game. Do you really think Elway would have been chosen over Manning in that scenario? At best he would have been viewed like Jay Cutler, who was the third QB taken in his draft despite having better mechanics than Leinart or Young.

let's throw in a little context here. Let's examine the talent surrounding Manning and Elway by looking at how their respective teammates were viewed by the NFL in the year they were drafted and the two subsequent years to account for contributing underclassmen.Between 1983 and 1985, there were exactly three Stanford Cardinal drafted in the first three rounds - Elway(1,1), Dressel (3,69), and Veris (2,48). this is the extent of the the NFL caliber players that composed Elways Stanford teams.Tennessee, on the other hand, had 16 players drafted in the first three rounds between 1998 and 2000. I'm not going to list them all, but this includes 6 first rounders, 6 2nd rounders, and 5 3rd rounders.

 

[menobrown]

No because Peyton has a strong arm but not Elway strong nor is he as good an athlete. If how teams did in college was the end all than Tee Martin should have gone in the first round because he actually accomoplished what Peyton could not and while that was hindsight when Peyton got drafted it was not when Tee went in the 5th round.

You're being obtuse. Obviously won-loss record is not the primary determinant of where QBs get drafted, but surely it's a factor when deciding between two excellent prospects. It surely counts as a "wart" on Elway's prospects coming out of college, which is what I was responding to.As for Elway having a bigger arm than Manning, asserting that over and over won't make it true.

No I'm not being obtuse you just can't pick and choose what you want to try and prove your invalid point that Jeff George was considered on the same level as Elway entering the league. I don't care to use college records as a basis but you do so the Tee Martin example is fitting just as it's fitting to point out that Stanford won one game the year after Elway left.You keep contending hindsight changes our perception but Kiper did not have hindsight when he listed George as his 84th prospect. You won't find anyone who was remotely down on Elway like that. That's not hindsight.

The main reason teams preferred Ryan Leaf over Peyton was they considered Leaf to have the superior velocity in his throws. Below are some comments that appeared in SI prior to the 1998 draft but please feel free to go ahead and think it's all just a figment of my imagination when I say Elway had a bigger arm than Peyton.

Summary

Manning is probably the most prepared QB to enter the NFL draft in several years.. He has had a storybook college career, and has been in a top level program with excellent coaching, and he has maturity and great intangibles to go along with his natural skills.. He should be able to pick up the mental aspects of the game early on the NFL level, and should play very quickly. He has great overall field vision. He is a fierce competitor, and all of his mechanics are very solid. He has good arm strength, but not necessarily a “gun” that you might expect from a QB at the top of the draft.. He has adequate mobility and good overall AA, although he is not a scrambler by nature. He has done an excellent job of getting the most out of his abilities, but he is not quite as natural a player as Leaf. One question that some NFL scouts have is the question “will he get any better?”. At times he gives the appearance of being a self-made player, and sometimes those types of players don’t always go on to great NFL careers. In Manning’s case, he may be a solid and productive NFL QB, but he may not have Hall of Fame type skills, but it certainly won’t be for lack of effort.. He has probably been the most scouted player in the draft in recent years, and because that NFL teams tend to look too much at potential flaws, instead of accepting him for what he is, a great college QB that is on his way to an outstanding NFL career.

 

[CalBear]

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

How many bowl games wete there in 1982? Coming from a school like Stanford, I'm not sure this the wart you think it is.

He had a losing record in college. Stanford would have gone to the Garden State Bowl in 1982 if they hadn't wound up with a losing record that year.Again, consider a draft where Manning and Elway were coming out at the same time. Both have great mechanics, big arms, elite pedigree. But one of them went 40-9, went to four bowl games (winning 3) and won an SEC championship, and the other one went 20-23 and never went to a bowl game. Do you really think Elway would have been chosen over Manning in that scenario? At best he would have been viewed like Jay Cutler, who was the third QB taken in his draft despite having better mechanics than Leinart or Young.

let's throw in a little context here. Let's examine the talent surrounding Manning and Elway by looking at how their respective teammates were viewed by the NFL in the year they were drafted and the two subsequent years to account for contributing underclassmen.Between 1983 and 1985, there were exactly three Stanford Cardinal drafted in the first three rounds - Elway(1,1), Dressel (3,69), and Veris (2,48). this is the extent of the the NFL caliber players that composed Elways Stanford teams.Tennessee, on the other hand, had 16 players drafted in the first three rounds between 1998 and 2000. I'm not going to list them all, but this includes 6 first rounders, 6 2nd rounders, and 5 3rd rounders.

Yes, and you could do the same thing for Jay Cutler vs. Matt Leinart and Vince Young, and they still got chosen ahead of him.

 

[moleculo]

That's hindsight speaking. The guy never made a bowl game--don't you think that's a bit of a wart?

How many bowl games wete there in 1982? Coming from a school like Stanford, I'm not sure this the wart you think it is.

He had a losing record in college. Stanford would have gone to the Garden State Bowl in 1982 if they hadn't wound up with a losing record that year.Again, consider a draft where Manning and Elway were coming out at the same time. Both have great mechanics, big arms, elite pedigree. But one of them went 40-9, went to four bowl games (winning 3) and won an SEC championship, and the other one went 20-23 and never went to a bowl game. Do you really think Elway would have been chosen over Manning in that scenario? At best he would have been viewed like Jay Cutler, who was the third QB taken in his draft despite having better mechanics than Leinart or Young.

let's throw in a little context here. Let's examine the talent surrounding Manning and Elway by looking at how their respective teammates were viewed by the NFL in the year they were drafted and the two subsequent years to account for contributing underclassmen.Between 1983 and 1985, there were exactly three Stanford Cardinal drafted in the first three rounds - Elway(1,1), Dressel (3,69), and Veris (2,48). this is the extent of the the NFL caliber players that composed Elways Stanford teams.Tennessee, on the other hand, had 16 players drafted in the first three rounds between 1998 and 2000. I'm not going to list them all, but this includes 6 first rounders, 6 2nd rounders, and 5 3rd rounders.

Yes, and you could do the same thing for Jay Cutler vs. Matt Leinart and Vince Young, and they still got chosen ahead of him.

thats not how it worked though. Lets not pretend there weren't other worthy QB's in that draft... Kelly, Marino, for starters.No, Elway was drafted ahead of these guys because he was the superior prospect. There really was no debate.

 

[Despyzer]

You keep contending hindsight changes our perception but Kiper did not have hindsight when he listed George as his 84th prospect. You won't find anyone who was remotely down on Elway like that. That's not hindsight.

Yeah, it is. George was #1 on Kiper's "Big Board" on draft day. He may "remember" having him rated that low, but he didn't actually place him there.

 

[CalBear]

thats not how it worked though. Lets not pretend there weren't other worthy QB's in that draft... Kelly, Marino, for starters.No, Elway was drafted ahead of these guys because he was the superior prospect. There really was no debate.

Marino threw 17 TDs and 23 INTs in his senior season at Pitt. Jim Kelly had just 14 TDs and 14 INTs at Miami (and went to the USFL anyway). Neither of them were Manning-level competition in terms of their pro prospects. If scouts were looking at Elway (20-23 career record, 3242/24/12 senior year) against Manning (40-9 career record, 3819/36/11 senior year) it's hard to imagine criteria which would result in them selecting Elway over Manning. Of course this is speculation, but the fact that Elway was selected over Marino is not relevant to whether he would have been selected over Manning.

 

[moleculo]

thats not how it worked though. Lets not pretend there weren't other worthy QB's in that draft... Kelly, Marino, for starters.No, Elway was drafted ahead of these guys because he was the superior prospect. There really was no debate.

Marino threw 17 TDs and 23 INTs in his senior season at Pitt. Jim Kelly had just 14 TDs and 14 INTs at Miami (and went to the USFL anyway). Neither of them were Manning-level competition in terms of their pro prospects. If scouts were looking at Elway (20-23 career record, 3242/24/12 senior year) against Manning (40-9 career record, 3819/36/11 senior year) it's hard to imagine criteria which would result in them selecting Elway over Manning. Of course this is speculation, but the fact that Elway was selected over Marino is not relevant to whether he would have been selected over Manning.

It should be obvious that scouts look at things beyond college stats, so I'm not sure why any of this is relevant.

 

[menobrown]

You keep contending hindsight changes our perception but Kiper did not have hindsight when he listed George as his 84th prospect. You won't find anyone who was remotely down on Elway like that. That's not hindsight.

Yeah, it is. George was #1 on Kiper's "Big Board" on draft day. He may "remember" having him rated that low, but he didn't actually place him there.

Ok, a few things here.Unless you provide evidence to the contrary him listing Jeff George #84 has nothing to with Mel's memory or what he remembered. That information is from a USA Today article that detailed Mel's hits and misses. Here's the link:http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2009-04-24-mel-kiper_N.htmNow Mel's proud he got it right with George. I've read and article where he refers to tabbing George as the 84th best prospect possibly his proudest achievement. According to you he can't remember his proudest achievement correctly so again I'm hoping you can provide some kind of link showing that both Mel and the USA Today have their information incorrect and he really had George listed as #1 and not #84. The very first post on this page someone lists Mel's top 10 grades he claims he's ever given QB's. Mel lists Andre Ware and Vinnie Testaverde in this group. He seems to exhibit no problem listing his failures but you contend he's just making the whole Jeff George as #84 ranked player up in his mind. Ok, sure.For the record I don't really care about Mel Kiper. I wanted to provide an example of how people perceived George when he entered the NFL versus how Elway was perceived and Mel's info is the most available on-line. The thing is Mel was not alone with this thoughts on George either. There is a detailed writeup from SI's archives they wrote right after the draft were they detail how a few workouts vaulted George from a player projected to go mid 40's to #1 overall. Here is a comment from that article:What defies belief is that George arrived at the head of the NFL list. Dave Thomas, editor of the Poor Man's Guide to the NFL Draft, is apoplectic. "I can't stress enough what a major mistake Indianapolis has made," says Thomas. "George emerged because he was like the new girl on the block. Everybody fell in love, but they didn't check with the old neighbors to see what a bad girl she was. The Colts better make sure they have a big stock of Excedrin, because they're going to need it."Thomas ranked George fifth among available quarterbacks, behind Houston's Andre Ware (page 60), Idaho's John Friesz, Washington's Cary Conklin and Utah's Scott Mitchell, and barely ahead of Maine's Mike Buck. George, Thomas predicts, will eventually become known as a "super blunder," joining such first-round quarterback flops as Kelly Stouffer (drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in 1987) and Todd Blackledge (by the Kansas City Chiefs in '83). Chiefs president and general manager Carl Peterson is more tactful than Thomas, but his message is the same. "There are some holes in George," says Peterson, "so to me the jury is still out."Here is a link to the article:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1136924/1/index.htmYou can look around and find plenty of people who liked Jeff George coming out. Obviously he went #1 overall.My only point was to show that Jeff George was never remotely considered the same prospect coming into the NFL that John Elway was and no hindsight changed that reality.

 

[CalBear]

thats not how it worked though. Lets not pretend there weren't other worthy QB's in that draft... Kelly, Marino, for starters.No, Elway was drafted ahead of these guys because he was the superior prospect. There really was no debate.

Marino threw 17 TDs and 23 INTs in his senior season at Pitt. Jim Kelly had just 14 TDs and 14 INTs at Miami (and went to the USFL anyway). Neither of them were Manning-level competition in terms of their pro prospects. If scouts were looking at Elway (20-23 career record, 3242/24/12 senior year) against Manning (40-9 career record, 3819/36/11 senior year) it's hard to imagine criteria which would result in them selecting Elway over Manning. Of course this is speculation, but the fact that Elway was selected over Marino is not relevant to whether he would have been selected over Manning.

It should be obvious that scouts look at things beyond college stats, so I'm not sure why any of this is relevant.

You don't think the fact that Marino threw 23 INTs against 17 TDs his senior year is relevant to how he was graded as a prospect?

 

[SWC]

i think eddie george would have been a better qb than jeff george and also eddie was true genetleman and ambasadoor for the sport so take that to teh bank in chatahoochie brohans

 

[RUSF18]

The real answer to this question is: Hindsight and confirmation bias.For anyone to be claimed as "the greatest prospect ever", they'd need to have been selected #1 overall, and had a successful NFL career (hindsight). That greatly reduces the competition here. Here's a list of #1 overall QB picks in the Super Bowl era who won at least one Super Bowl:Eli ManningPeyton ManningTroy AikmanSteve Young (* supplemental)John ElwayJim PlunkettTerry BradshawSo really, not a very impressive list. Young doesn't count because he went to the USFL first, and it's obvious that Plunkett, Bradshaw, and Eli were not highly regarded as can't-miss prospects. So essentially you're comparing Elway to Peyton and Aikman. Aikman was good but not on the same level. So, all the top prospects now are either "the best prospect since Manning" or "the best prospect since Elway". Those things get repeated enough that they become accepted as gospel, but I don't think that if Elway came out in the same draft as, say, Vick, that Elway would have been taken first. I am certain that if Manning and Elway came out in the same draft that Manning (all the physical tools, great college success, son of a QB/coach) would have been selected over Elway who had never managed to make a bowl game.

/thread

I don't really agree mainly because I don't agree with the statement that the answer to the question is hindsight and confirmation bias.When discussing Elway in the context of greatest prospect ever what he did in his NFL career means nothing. What he did in his career once he got to the NFL is another discussion entirely. Same for every other QB mentioned in this thread. When discussing how a player rated as a prospect that implies you are only discussing how that player was perceived BEFORE he entered the NFL, not what he did once he got there. On that same idea if people say Luck is the best prospect since Elway they are not inferring Elway was a better QB than say Peyton or Brady, just a higher rated prospect when he entered the league.

I'm also pretty sure that NFL prospects are actually graded on a standard scale by teams/scouts. Remember it having a top score of 9.0 and Elway was the only QB to ever receive an 8.9 grade. So he literally was the best prospect ever.