Can we talk QB in here and who/when you're targeting? (1 Viewer)

[fantasycurse42]

Thanks to Eminence, we now know that Luck and Rodgers will prob be the first off the board, but after that what is the plan?

Some people like taking the safe road on QB and going early, so if you're looking Luck/Rodgers in the first 1-3 rounds, this isn't the thread for you. Getting a high producing QB in the 6th or later will always give you an edge over the competition, I'm debating who to grab and when.

I'm interested in Big Ben, but I think he goes late 4 early 5 which is a little earlier than I want to go QB. Brees might be around in the 6th, but I'm worried about his surrounding cast. Wilson/Cam off of contracts have me worried.

I think I'm left in the Stafford, Ryan, Rivers, Eli, Romo, and Brady (paired with someone else) bucket.

Anyone have a strong argument or thoughts on best value at QB?

 

[The General]

I always take a QB late, think it is the way to go unless you have some really heavy QB scoring system.

I like in this order: Ben (has a bunch of weapons, Pitt D isn't very good) / Brady (if he gets lessened suspension he goes to top - they will throw non-stop when he comes back) / Peyton (won't be taking, afraid the wheels will come off at any moment ) / Brees (don't like him and won't take him unless he really drops but plays in the dome and he is a stat whore) / Wilson (more weapons this year).

If I miss out on all those guys I really wait on QB and take whoever is left out of Ryan / Romo / Stafford / Cam / Rivers / Eli.

 

[Deamon]

Wilson if you can snag him in the 4th. Ben if you can snag him in the 5th. If not, then wait it out and take a teddy/tannehill/rivers/ryan type

 

[BigSteelThrill]

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/729571-what-qb-pricepoint-do-you-like-according-to-current-adp/

 

[Robo35]

What about 2 qb league I like big Ben a lot but when do I pick him if available rd 2? I'm new to 2 qb league so any advice would help thx

 

[FUBAR]

I always take a QB late, think it is the way to go unless you have some really heavy QB scoring system.

I like in this order: Ben (has a bunch of weapons, Pitt D isn't very good) / Brady (if he gets lessened suspension he goes to top - they will throw non-stop when he comes back) / Peyton (won't be taking, afraid the wheels will come off at any moment ) / Brees (don't like him and won't take him unless he really drops but plays in the dome and he is a stat whore) / Wilson (more weapons this year).

If I miss out on all those guys I really wait on QB and take whoever is left out of Ryan / Romo / Stafford / Cam / Rivers / Eli.

Pretty much this.

If luck or Rodgers are available in the 2nd, I'll take one.

If not I'm probably waiting. Cam has been on a lot of my teams, but I probably like him too much.

 

[pantherclub]

Wilson if you can snag him in the 4th. Ben if you can snag him in the 5th. If not, then wait it out and take a teddy/tannehill/rivers/ryan type

in a 6pt td league I cannot imagine Ben lasting until the 5th.

 

[Ilov80s]

I always take a QB late, think it is the way to go unless you have some really heavy QB scoring system.

I like in this order: Ben (has a bunch of weapons, Pitt D isn't very good) / Brady (if he gets lessened suspension he goes to top - they will throw non-stop when he comes back) / Peyton (won't be taking, afraid the wheels will come off at any moment ) / Brees (don't like him and won't take him unless he really drops but plays in the dome and he is a stat whore) / Wilson (more weapons this year).

If I miss out on all those guys I really wait on QB and take whoever is left out of Ryan / Romo / Stafford / Cam / Rivers / Eli.

I wouldn't say drafting most of those guys constitutes waiting on a QB.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think Ben is a bit overrated. He had a great point total last year, but he was really inconsistent.

Romo, Tannehill Palmer and Bradford are the 4 guys that I usually find myself grabbing.

 

[The General]

I always take a QB late, think it is the way to go unless you have some really heavy QB scoring system.

I like in this order: Ben (has a bunch of weapons, Pitt D isn't very good) / Brady (if he gets lessened suspension he goes to top - they will throw non-stop when he comes back) / Peyton (won't be taking, afraid the wheels will come off at any moment ) / Brees (don't like him and won't take him unless he really drops but plays in the dome and he is a stat whore) / Wilson (more weapons this year).

If I miss out on all those guys I really wait on QB and take whoever is left out of Ryan / Romo / Stafford / Cam / Rivers / Eli.

I wouldn't say drafting most of those guys constitutes waiting on a QB.

Well sure, I'm not going Andy Dalton / Joe Flacco but there are 12 guys listed there. Definitely not taking Luck or Rodgers unless they somehow are there in the 3rd round which they won't be.

My perfect draft right know would be best WR/RB or Gronk / WR or RB repeat til the 5th round and get Ben or Brady.

 

[Biabreakable]

Thanks to Eminence, we now know that Luck and Rodgers will prob be the first off the board, but after that what is the plan?

Yeah the entire fantasy community was in the dark about Luck and Rodgers until Eminence came along. Not sure how this game survived the dark ages without that guy.

Tyrod Taylor = Speed.

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

So what your saying is take Brees basically.

 

[MattFancy]

I think Ben is a bit overrated. He had a great point total last year, but he was really inconsistent.

Romo, Tannehill Palmer and Bradford are the 4 guys that I usually find myself grabbing.

I was high on Ben, but then after looking at his schedule, it's pretty brutal. We all know the defenses in the NFC North are all pretty solid, but then they also get Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona, Denver, New England, San Diego and KC. I know they have some nice pieces on offense and their defense is bad, but that's still a rough schedule.

 

[Freelove]

Luck or Rodgers if they fall to me at anything approximating value (no backup)...

Cam/Eli/Rivers/Palmer/Bradford (specifically THOSE mid-late-rounders, and in that order) if any of THEM fall to me at anything approximating value (aim to get two)...

Or three of the dregs of ADP, and hope for the best, avoiding the rookies and focusing on Carr, Cutler, RG3, Alex Smith, Dalton, and Foles, in that order, and avoiding the rookies.

The QB's not named aren't guys I'm against, but their draft positions seem to be routinely way higher than my personal evaluations put them.

 

[fantasycurse42]

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

So what your saying is take Brees basically.

JAMEIS

What about Ryan or Cam? Brees lost his most dangerous weapon which gives me a little pause this year.

 

[Freelove]

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

So what your saying is take Brees basically.

JAMEIS

What about Ryan or Cam? Brees lost his most dangerous weapon which gives me a little pause this year.

Brees made his most dangerous weapon.

 

[FUBAR]

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

So what your saying is take Brees basically.

JAMEIS

What about Ryan or Cam? Brees lost his most dangerous weapon which gives me a little pause this year.

Brees made his most dangerous weapon.

Really hard to say but I'd bet Graham would succeed almost anywhere.

I'll lump Ryan, Cam and Brees together right now. If 6 pts per TD pass bumps Brees a little ahead of Cam.

 

[DocHolliday]

Eli, Romo, and Ryan

Seems like Romo will be throwing a lot. That running game is going to be inconsistent.

Eli has a ton of weapons

 

[Biabreakable]

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

So what your saying is take Brees basically.

Brees is the one I prefer out of the four, but I think all of them are good options at their ADP. I would not take Winston as my first QB drafted, but he is a good platoon option.

MFL ADP since Aug 1st 491 real drafts.

1. Luck, Andrew IND QB 10.54
2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 14.98
3. Wilson, Russell SEA QB 40.11
4. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 48.74
5. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB
6. Brees, Drew NOS QB 58.09
7. Newton, Cam CAR QB 62.24
8. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 64.36
9. Romo, Tony DAL QB 80.48
10. Stafford, Matthew DET QB 81.36
11. Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB 86.07
12. Brady, Tom NEP QB 88.75
13. Manning, Eli NYG QB 99.38
14. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 107.16
15. Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB 115.45
16. Bradford, Sam PHI QB 127.22
17. Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 132.67
18. Winston, Jameis TBB QB 135.37
19. Mariota, Marcus TEN QB 140.57
20. Flacco, Joe BAL QB 141.63
21. Carr, Derek OAK QB 149.64
22. Cutler, Jay CHI QB 153.11
23. Palmer, Carson ARI QB 157.94
24. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 158.51
25. Bortles, Blake JAC QB 166.78
26. Smith, Alex KCC QB 169.76
27. Foles, Nick STL QB 170.18
28. Griffin III, Robert WAS QB 173.54
29. Smith, Geno NYJ QB 211.24
30. Cassel, Matt BUF QB 213.63
31. Fitzpatrick, Ryan NYJ QB 216.47
32. Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB 225.43

All 3 of the top NFC South QB go in the 5th round according to this. Brees maybe the end of the 4th round. You could just take the one that is left in the 5th or 6th round.

I think Griffin represents the most value for the price.

 

[tangfoot]

10. Stafford, Matthew DET QB 81.36 11. Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB 86.07
12. Brady, Tom NEP QB 88.75
13. Manning, Eli NYG QB 99.38
14. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 107.16

Love all 5 of these guys at their cost.

 

[FF Ninja]

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

So what your saying is take Brees basically.

JAMEIS

What about Ryan or Cam? Brees lost his most dangerous weapon which gives me a little pause this year.

Brees made his most dangerous weapon.

Really hard to say but I'd bet Graham would succeed almost anywhere.

I'll lump Ryan, Cam and Brees together right now. If 6 pts per TD pass bumps Brees a little ahead of Cam.

I'm sure it would be a pain to track down, but I've seen several articles that conclude that Graham was actually quite average. His statistical rise to dominance was almost entirely due to QB accuracy and his volume of targets.

 

[ponchsox]

Brady and Bradford are my late round targets.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Brady and Bradford are my late round targets.

If Bradford could stay on the field in Philly, he would have so much value... Unfortunately he prob won't.

If I can grab him really late, I want him too, but def not as my main option for the season.

 

[The General]

Brady and Bradford are my late round targets.

If Bradford could stay on the field in Philly, he would have so much value... Unfortunately he prob won't.

If I can grab him really late, I want him too, but def not as my main option for the season.

He is perfect combo with Brady just needs to last 5 weeks.

 

[Freelove]

On a more serious note taking any of the QB from the NFC South offers a juicy schedule as they play themselves six times, the NFC Least and the AFC South. There are only two to three difficult defenses for these teams this season.

So what your saying is take Brees basically.

JAMEIS

What about Ryan or Cam? Brees lost his most dangerous weapon which gives me a little pause this year.

Brees made his most dangerous weapon.

Really hard to say but I'd bet Graham would succeed almost anywhere.

I'll lump Ryan, Cam and Brees together right now. If 6 pts per TD pass bumps Brees a little ahead of Cam.

I'm sure it would be a pain to track down, but I've seen several articles that conclude that Graham was actually quite average. His statistical rise to dominance was almost entirely due to QB accuracy and his volume of targets.

Graham will be junk now that he's with a below average passer in Seattle. I guess he might still get an above-league average number of TD's if they force the ball to him to try to justify the terrible contracts they gave both him and Wilson, but he certainly can't hope to return value on his ADP.

 

[The General]

Graham will be junk now that he's with a below average passer in Seattle. I guess he might still get an above-league average number of TD's if they force the ball to him to try to justify the terrible contracts they gave both him and Wilson, but he certainly can't hope to return value on his ADP.

:eyeroll:

 

[Freelove]

FWIW, I was only talking to people who understood that Wilson has made a career of forcing his targets into underachievement, has never had a single target worth FF ownership in even the smallest of leagues, and was purely relevant as a running QB. Wilson/SEA fanbois like General and ITS are, obviously, not worthy of reply or serious consideration. Only people who understand football and the numbers are.

 

[The General]

FWIW, I was only talking to people who understood that Wilson has made a career of forcing his targets into underachievement, has never had a single target worth FF ownership in even the smallest of leagues, and was purely relevant as a running QB. Wilson/SEA fanbois like General and ITS are, obviously, not worthy of reply or serious consideration. Only people who understand football and the numbers are.

 

[Freelove]

This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by The General. View it anyway?

I thought policy here was to ban no-content serial posters?

What a clown show.

 

[The General]

I thought policy here was to ban no-content serial posters?

Good idea.

 

[mphtrilogy]

Dalton has all his wrs back and healthy, could put up some good regular season numbers again...

 

[fantasycurse42]

Dalton has all his wrs back and healthy, could put up some good regular season numbers again...

The door is at the front on the left, go find it and leave quickly.

 

[Freelove]

Dalton has all his wrs back and healthy, could put up some good regular season numbers again...

The door is at the front on the left, go find it and leave quickly.

I'm not super high on Dalton or anything, but last time he had a healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones, he did put up a 4400/33 season, and now he's got a bonus Gio and Eifert he didn't have then.I lean toward the idea that says Hue + Hill will result in a somewhat more consevative approach. But to be fair, Hue did promise to open it up.

I don't know what it amounts to, but out-and-out dismissal seems too kneejerk a reaction.

 

[JHuber77]

Never trust a ginger.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Dalton has all his wrs back and healthy, could put up some good regular season numbers again...

The door is at the front on the left, go find it and leave quickly.

I'm not super high on Dalton or anything, but last time he had a healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones, he did put up a 4400/33 season, and now he's got a bonus Gio and Eifert he didn't have then.I lean toward the idea that says Hue + Hill will result in a somewhat more consevative approach. But to be fair, Hue did promise to open it up.

I don't know what it amounts to, but out-and-out dismissal seems too kneejerk a reaction.

I can't believe McCarron is their backup. If I thought he was the least bit competent, I'd stash him. Katherine Webb is the only positive I can take away from the Bengals QB situation.

 

[fantasy stud]

10. Stafford, Matthew DET QB 81.36

11. Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB 86.07

12. Brady, Tom NEP QB 88.75

13. Manning, Eli NYG QB 99.38

14. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 107.16

Love all 5 of these guys at their cost.

agree and throw in Palmer who is even going later than these guys

 

[TripItUp]

Great year to wait on QB if you can't land Rodgers or Luck at a reasonable cost.

I'm targeting two or three of the following:

Eli

Stafford

Brady

Ryan

Palmer

 

[ryno1980]

What about 2 qb league I like big Ben a lot but when do I pick him if available rd 2? I'm new to 2 qb league so any advice would help thx

Round 2 seems a little early even in a 2 qb format. I'd try to wait till the 3rd-4th. I like Taking a chance on Bradford in a 2 qb. Eagles qb has been a qb1 since Kelly's arrival.

 

[Freelove]

Dalton has all his wrs back and healthy, could put up some good regular season numbers again...

The door is at the front on the left, go find it and leave quickly.

I'm not super high on Dalton or anything, but last time he had a healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones, he did put up a 4400/33 season, and now he's got a bonus Gio and Eifert he didn't have then.I lean toward the idea that says Hue + Hill will result in a somewhat more consevative approach. But to be fair, Hue did promise to open it up.

I don't know what it amounts to, but out-and-out dismissal seems too kneejerk a reaction.

I can't believe McCarron is their backup. If I thought he was the least bit competent, I'd stash him. Katherine Webb is the only positive I can take away from the Bengals QB situation.

I can't say I'm dazzled by most of the league's backups. Hell, some of them are Johnny Manziel at this point.

 

[ryno1980]

This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by The General. View it anyway?

I thought policy here was to ban no-content serial posters?

What a clown show.

Use the ignore function

 

[KellysHeroes]

I love Flacco this yr w tresman as the OC. Maybe not as a QB1 but late round back up

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

I think waiting to draft a qb until round 8 or later is the best way to go, although I always draft three in that case. Its a crapshoot, but I would be pretty happy with Eli, Romo, Rivers, Bradford, or Brady if he falls. My third qb is going to be Flacco or Cutler. Those guys are both 18 mil plus for a reason, they have raw talent and if the chips fall right in any given year, they could blow up. I am also going to keep a close eye on Carr and Bortles for early pick ups.

The great thing about the low round qb strategy is that you are not wedded to any of them. Anyone who takes a qb in the first three or four rounds will stick with them for at least the first half of the season, even if the wheels are falling off. By the time you actually switch you are out of the playoffs.

 

[ratbast]

I bought Peyton on the cheap in my 5 keeper. I will try and back him up with Bridgewater unless Rivers falls then i will pounce. Imagine Rivers as a FA next year?

 

[rocketsauce]

I'm picking 12th in my main league, 6 pts per TD pass. I'd take Big Ben (my #4 QB) if he's there at the 5/6 turn, but I seriously doubt he will be. If that doesn't happen, I'll likely wait till the 9/10 turn, and look at that point at Brady, Ryan or Stafford. If that doesn't happen, Tannehill in the 11/12 turn. If I miss on all of those, I'm content slopping something together involving Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, and Jameis Winston. That would be ugly, but I'd be okay starting the season with that.

 

[zftcg]

I've always made my living in the second tier of QBs. Basically, I don't want to waste an early pick on a Rodgers/Luck, but I also don't want to have someone who's not a set-it-and-forget-it every-week starter. I've misfired a couple times with this strategy, but for the most part it's worked out. Got Rodgers and Brees in their breakout years, and have owned Romo numerous times. He's like the platonic ideal of a mid-tier QB.

This year, I view Wilson at the top-end of that second tier, and would be happy to take him in the 4th, but I suspect there will be an owner who will reach for him early. So I'm thinking more likely Brees/Cam/Romo/Brady/Rivers

I'm a little down on Ben and Tannehill based on their current ADP/hype. Ben reminds me of Matt Ryan coming off of his '12 season. It seemed clear to me at the time that would be Ryan's high point, and even then his numbers didn't blow me away. Last year was only the second time Ben's thrown for more than 30 TDs, and his first over 4,500 yards (plus more than a third of his TDs came from two games). If you told me he was going to repeat those stats I'd be fine taking him in the 4th or 5th round, but I have a feeling he'll go earlier.

As for Tannehill, IMO the hype has gone way too far. Again, I think he'll have a good season, but I'm not convinced he can justify his ADP.

The big question mark for me is Stafford. After a couple of up and down years, he looked like he was getting ready to settle into that 4,500/30 range. And if the buzz about last year being an adjustment year for Lombardi as OC is true, that could still happen, and Stafford would likely be a value pick. But I'm not convinced that's the case.

Bridgewater to me is the perfect example of a guy who's intriguing but who I won't be targeting (unless maybe I draft Brady and need a good 4-week fill-in). He could make the leap this year, but I'm not confident enough in that happening that I'd be willing to draft him as my only QB, and I really hate to waste two picks on my QB slot.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm picking 12th in my main league, 6 pts per TD pass. I'd take Big Ben (my #4 QB) if he's there at the 5/6 turn, but I seriously doubt he will be. If that doesn't happen, I'll likely wait till the 9/10 turn, and look at that point at Brady, Ryan or Stafford. If that doesn't happen, Tannehill in the 11/12 turn. If I miss on all of those, I'm content slopping something together involving Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, and Jameis Winston. That would be ugly, but I'd be okay starting the season with that.

:X

No reason to do that to yourself. At least grab like Rivers or someone in that neighborhood once it starts thinning.

 

[LawFitz]

15th yr 10 team 2 QB (4pt pass TD) auction league and I fully expect 4-5 of the top 10 $$$ bids to be QBs.

 

[Robo35]

Yea what rd would u take the 2nd tier Qbs in a 2 qb league?

 

[MattFancy]

I love Flacco this yr w tresman as the OC. Maybe not as a QB1 but late round back up

I've been thinking the same thing. Though, his WRs and TEs are a big question mark outside of Steve Smith. But, if Perriman, Aiken, Brown step up at WR and Williams come along quickly, they could have an interesting offense.

 

[Ilov80s]

Dalton has all his wrs back and healthy, could put up some good regular season numbers again...

The door is at the front on the left, go find it and leave quickly.

I'm not super high on Dalton or anything, but last time he had a healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones, he did put up a 4400/33 season, and now he's got a bonus Gio and Eifert he didn't have then.I lean toward the idea that says Hue + Hill will result in a somewhat more consevative approach. But to be fair, Hue did promise to open it up.

I don't know what it amounts to, but out-and-out dismissal seems too kneejerk a reaction.

Dalton was so inconsistent that year that he was pretty much useless. His first 5 games he was awful (5 TDs, 5 Ints, median of 235 yards passing). Then, he went nuts for 3 games. By the time anyone really trusted him to start, they got 1 or 2 really good games. Then, they got screwed by 4 straight duds (6 TDs, 9 Ints, 2 games with <200 yards passing). He played very well through the rest of the season, but what balls it would have taken to start him in the playoffs.