Man of Zen
Footballguy
Obviously lots of fantasy relevance scattered all over this thing, but putting the puzzle together is a bit of a headscratcher right now.
So then, this is my best crack at laying out the issues. Let me know your thoughts on them:
QB - Obviously Brady is going to be Brady, and if they lead the league in rushing, he'll probably finish in the 6-8 range, while if they go pass heavy, he'll probably finish in the 4-6 range. He's super safe, without a whole lot of variance, IMO, unless you see another 2007 on the horizon. I don't.
RB - Ridley seems like a lock to offer up an encore presentation of his 2-down monstery from last year. Should easily crack 1000/10, barring injuries, with again (in my mind) very little chance for alternative scenarios.
Now it starts to get wonky.
RB - Vereen. He seems to be touted as likely to fill any number of different scenarios, depending who you listen to. At the productivity top end, hardcore Vereenists seem to believe he'll be the primary guy to spell Ridley, in addition to taking over most or all of Woodhead's production from last year, in addition to taking over the lion's share of Hernandez's production. This would make him the ultimate swiss army knife, and put him in the discussion as a sleeper for year end top ten. I feel like this is a little optimistic.
Those who take a more measured view might think Blount/Bolden will be the primary spell back for Ridley, with Vereen reprising Woodhead's role, but with a little more versatility, while Sudfeld works his way into the Hernandez role. This seems like it would offer a better prognosis for the Pats O as a whole, but would create a pretty drastic plunge in the top end estimation of Vereen's value.
One of the guys I'm having the toughest time reading so far, league-wide.
TE - Gronk. If healthy, should of course be a monster, in a role that would have to shape up to be pretty similar to his old one. Yardage eater and Brady's unquestioned top red zone target. Not sure how healthy he'll be to start the year, but opinions seem to be converging on a pretty early, but not quite immediate return to the lineup. Can't say I'm worried about him, but even with his relatively stable role, he's going all over drafts because of the uncertainty aspect.
TE - Sudfeld. Seems to be the only other TE name to worry about. They're calling him the "#1" while Gronk is out, which I don't take to mean he'll fill the same role on the field, but rather that he should become Brady's favorite TE target, since Ballard is no real threat offensively. The question seems to be whether he does enough to force his way into 2 TE sets, as well as whether he instills enough confidence in Belichick and Brady that they go ahead and continue to use 2 TE sets prolifically.
If he does force his way in, it will be because he produced while Gronk was out, and if he can then provide something resembling a surrogate for Hernandez in that offense, his top end goes through the roof because he will have had a full year of great production. Remember that while Hernandez could never stay healthy, he nonetheless put up 80/900/7 in 12 starts in 2011.
Now, if he can provide a good enough early week replacement for Gronk that he generates at least some decent percentage of expected Gronkish output, and then steps in for Hernandez, where do we put him? Is something like 70/800/6 a reasonable floor in that scenario? Is there actual upside from there? I think so. But then there's the Vereen question. Is Vereen significant and versatile enough a talent that even if Sudfeld excels, Vereen pushes him out of a big chunk of what would have been Hernandez's move-TE numbers? Even if that happens, is there a little unseen upside on the chance Amendola doesn't step up and fill the gap left by Welker? *sigh*
I think we're probably looking at a balancing act, here, where Vereen gets some of that Hernandezian output, Sudfeld gets some, and they both end up with better numbers than their current ADP's are dictating, but neither guy genuinely explodes.
WR - Amendola. One of the real wild cards this year. We have to figure out what percent of Welker's usability he is able to handle, plus what other scenarios his different skills allow that we didn't have to account for in projecting Welker, plus to what degree we see the emergence of Vereen and Sudfeld as potentially eating into those numbers.
Best case scenario, he shows, week in and week out, that the 15/160/1 neo-Welker showcase that he put on with Bradford last year in week 2 was merely a tantalizing look at what he could do in a system built for him. Plus, his extra size maybe gives Brady a little more incentive to look for him once in a while down near the goalline. Then on top of that, he also shows he can get deep and challenge #1 CB's downfield when called upon to do so, which he'd have opportunities for because there is already such a glut of potential underneath targets. If this happens, he challenges for the top 5 among WR's. I've been on record saying this is where I see him, although with some reservations, to be sure. He's my #1 blue chip undervalued stud of the year, since I see him returning second round value, but I freely acknowledge that I may be off my rocker on this one.
Other scenarios, even if you discount his injury history (which you may well not want to, if he's going to take a Welker-ish pounding underneath as often as seems ideal), mean that he does nothing but reprise the Welker role, but lacks the laser-like precision of Welker's route-running and Welker's best-in-class change of directional quickness and toughness. Maybe it turns out he can only handle 5-6 short grabs a game instead of Welker's 7-9, with limited yardage and few red zone looks. Maybe this lets the young guys with their speed and Gronk with his size prove that they're better suited as downfield targets, so DA sees little if any of that pie. Ends up very useful for the Pats, with a workmanlike 90/900/4 type line, and a disaster for FF'ers who targeted him early and felt they had to start him every week.
The spread between these two scenarios, coupled with the seeming likelihood of either make him one of the most high-risk, high-reward discussions in FF this preseason. I'm gambling on him, but would love to hear as many opinions as possible.
WR - The Rookies. Especially Thompkins and Dobson. Both guys seem to be getting targets in the preseason, with Thompkins clearly getting the lion's share of the first team snaps with Brady et al for the time being. I think whoever emerges here almost has to take on the Lloyd role from last year, but the question becomes: how does that role shape up, now that the names are new and have an all-new chance to bond with Brady? And at the same time, with so many question marks and new faces around the field, isn't it entirely possible the Lloyd role becomes much bigger in the new-look Pats' O than it was with Lloyd himself?
I'm sticking to the middle ground here, but just because I'm always skittish about relative no-name rookies, no matter how good the situation. Curious what role people see, and what they're willing to gamble on it. To me, for now, a Thompkins endgame pick seems wise if he falls that far, but even at that price, I'm not really in love with the opportunity cost.
Anyway, a number of these guys have make-or-break potential, and I think it's worth figuring out how to best read the tea leaves in NE. Anyone with thoughts?
So then, this is my best crack at laying out the issues. Let me know your thoughts on them:
QB - Obviously Brady is going to be Brady, and if they lead the league in rushing, he'll probably finish in the 6-8 range, while if they go pass heavy, he'll probably finish in the 4-6 range. He's super safe, without a whole lot of variance, IMO, unless you see another 2007 on the horizon. I don't.
RB - Ridley seems like a lock to offer up an encore presentation of his 2-down monstery from last year. Should easily crack 1000/10, barring injuries, with again (in my mind) very little chance for alternative scenarios.
Now it starts to get wonky.
RB - Vereen. He seems to be touted as likely to fill any number of different scenarios, depending who you listen to. At the productivity top end, hardcore Vereenists seem to believe he'll be the primary guy to spell Ridley, in addition to taking over most or all of Woodhead's production from last year, in addition to taking over the lion's share of Hernandez's production. This would make him the ultimate swiss army knife, and put him in the discussion as a sleeper for year end top ten. I feel like this is a little optimistic.
Those who take a more measured view might think Blount/Bolden will be the primary spell back for Ridley, with Vereen reprising Woodhead's role, but with a little more versatility, while Sudfeld works his way into the Hernandez role. This seems like it would offer a better prognosis for the Pats O as a whole, but would create a pretty drastic plunge in the top end estimation of Vereen's value.
One of the guys I'm having the toughest time reading so far, league-wide.
TE - Gronk. If healthy, should of course be a monster, in a role that would have to shape up to be pretty similar to his old one. Yardage eater and Brady's unquestioned top red zone target. Not sure how healthy he'll be to start the year, but opinions seem to be converging on a pretty early, but not quite immediate return to the lineup. Can't say I'm worried about him, but even with his relatively stable role, he's going all over drafts because of the uncertainty aspect.
TE - Sudfeld. Seems to be the only other TE name to worry about. They're calling him the "#1" while Gronk is out, which I don't take to mean he'll fill the same role on the field, but rather that he should become Brady's favorite TE target, since Ballard is no real threat offensively. The question seems to be whether he does enough to force his way into 2 TE sets, as well as whether he instills enough confidence in Belichick and Brady that they go ahead and continue to use 2 TE sets prolifically.
If he does force his way in, it will be because he produced while Gronk was out, and if he can then provide something resembling a surrogate for Hernandez in that offense, his top end goes through the roof because he will have had a full year of great production. Remember that while Hernandez could never stay healthy, he nonetheless put up 80/900/7 in 12 starts in 2011.
Now, if he can provide a good enough early week replacement for Gronk that he generates at least some decent percentage of expected Gronkish output, and then steps in for Hernandez, where do we put him? Is something like 70/800/6 a reasonable floor in that scenario? Is there actual upside from there? I think so. But then there's the Vereen question. Is Vereen significant and versatile enough a talent that even if Sudfeld excels, Vereen pushes him out of a big chunk of what would have been Hernandez's move-TE numbers? Even if that happens, is there a little unseen upside on the chance Amendola doesn't step up and fill the gap left by Welker? *sigh*
I think we're probably looking at a balancing act, here, where Vereen gets some of that Hernandezian output, Sudfeld gets some, and they both end up with better numbers than their current ADP's are dictating, but neither guy genuinely explodes.
WR - Amendola. One of the real wild cards this year. We have to figure out what percent of Welker's usability he is able to handle, plus what other scenarios his different skills allow that we didn't have to account for in projecting Welker, plus to what degree we see the emergence of Vereen and Sudfeld as potentially eating into those numbers.
Best case scenario, he shows, week in and week out, that the 15/160/1 neo-Welker showcase that he put on with Bradford last year in week 2 was merely a tantalizing look at what he could do in a system built for him. Plus, his extra size maybe gives Brady a little more incentive to look for him once in a while down near the goalline. Then on top of that, he also shows he can get deep and challenge #1 CB's downfield when called upon to do so, which he'd have opportunities for because there is already such a glut of potential underneath targets. If this happens, he challenges for the top 5 among WR's. I've been on record saying this is where I see him, although with some reservations, to be sure. He's my #1 blue chip undervalued stud of the year, since I see him returning second round value, but I freely acknowledge that I may be off my rocker on this one.
Other scenarios, even if you discount his injury history (which you may well not want to, if he's going to take a Welker-ish pounding underneath as often as seems ideal), mean that he does nothing but reprise the Welker role, but lacks the laser-like precision of Welker's route-running and Welker's best-in-class change of directional quickness and toughness. Maybe it turns out he can only handle 5-6 short grabs a game instead of Welker's 7-9, with limited yardage and few red zone looks. Maybe this lets the young guys with their speed and Gronk with his size prove that they're better suited as downfield targets, so DA sees little if any of that pie. Ends up very useful for the Pats, with a workmanlike 90/900/4 type line, and a disaster for FF'ers who targeted him early and felt they had to start him every week.
The spread between these two scenarios, coupled with the seeming likelihood of either make him one of the most high-risk, high-reward discussions in FF this preseason. I'm gambling on him, but would love to hear as many opinions as possible.
WR - The Rookies. Especially Thompkins and Dobson. Both guys seem to be getting targets in the preseason, with Thompkins clearly getting the lion's share of the first team snaps with Brady et al for the time being. I think whoever emerges here almost has to take on the Lloyd role from last year, but the question becomes: how does that role shape up, now that the names are new and have an all-new chance to bond with Brady? And at the same time, with so many question marks and new faces around the field, isn't it entirely possible the Lloyd role becomes much bigger in the new-look Pats' O than it was with Lloyd himself?
I'm sticking to the middle ground here, but just because I'm always skittish about relative no-name rookies, no matter how good the situation. Curious what role people see, and what they're willing to gamble on it. To me, for now, a Thompkins endgame pick seems wise if he falls that far, but even at that price, I'm not really in love with the opportunity cost.
Anyway, a number of these guys have make-or-break potential, and I think it's worth figuring out how to best read the tea leaves in NE. Anyone with thoughts?
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