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Cecil Shorts, will you regret not drafting him this year? (1 Viewer)

Eminence

Footballguy
The guy is an absolute menace getting downfield. He averaged 17.8YPC last season as a Rookie on an abysmal Jacksonville team. I don't believe Jacksonville has gotten astronomically better, so the opportunity for garbage time production may very-well be possible this year.

I don't know where he is being drafted, but he seems like a perfect play as WR3.

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Once getting the starting job, Cecil Shorts posted a statline of:

47 Catches / 774 Yards / 5 Touchdowns in 9 games.

If you're one of those people who believe in prorated stats for a baseline of a season's worth of production, over a 16-game season those numbers are good for:

83 Catches / 1,376 Yards / 8 Touchdowns

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Was his production an anomaly? Or will there be many, many fantasy owners be kicking themselves for passing on him in this year at a reduced value?

 
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HellToupee

Footballguy
The guy is an absolute menace getting downfield. He averaged 17.8YPC last season as a Rookie on an abysmal Jacksonville team. I don't believe Jacksonville has gotten astronomically better, so the opportunity for garbage time production may very-well be possible this year.
He wasn't a rookie last year

 

Eminence

Footballguy
The guy is an absolute menace getting downfield. He averaged 17.8YPC last season as a Rookie on an abysmal Jacksonville team. I don't believe Jacksonville has gotten astronomically better, so the opportunity for garbage time production may very-well be possible this year.
He wasn't a rookie last year
Even better, now we can claim he'll have a third-year breakout.

lol.

lol.

lol.

 

Lott's Fingertip

Footballguy
Either Gabbert improves and wins the job, or he doesn't improve and loses the job. Either way, whoever is at QB should be better than 2012 Gabbert.

 
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x260bm

Footballguy
2 concussions in a span of 3 weeks to end the season. I won't be drafting him this season.

 

Patoons

Footballguy
He (and Blackmon) were top 10 on a PPG basis in PPR leagues after Henne took over...
Shorts was top 10 over nine games -- three with Gabbert and six with Henne. It wasn't limited to either guy.



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Shorts' numbers with each of Gabbert and Henne were almost identical on an average basis (numbers = targets, catches, and yardage)

 

Mr. Brownstone

Footballguy
He (and Blackmon) were top 10 on a PPG basis in PPR leagues after Henne took over...
That's the part that worries me.Gabbert throwing= Eek
Gabbert probably wont beat him out in camp :shrug:
Gabbert will beat out Henne in camp, but i don't see him holding on to the job. He looks good in practice because he doesn't get hit. Once the hitting starts, it's a different story.
 

Toad_1234

Footballguy
I'm high on him, but there are question marks surrounding. How much the Jags will pass with MJD back and Gabbert under center as well as how many balls he'll command versus(with) Blackmon namely.

I'm buying but last year was last year. Henne was forced to basically throw it every down because they couldn't run the ball to save their lives. This is a new year and MJD will be rushing for more than the 40 YPG Richard Owens did.

Not sure where to rank him at the moment.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
I'm high on him, but there are question marks surrounding. How much the Jags will pass with MJD back and Gabbert under center as well as how many balls he'll command versus(with) Blackmon namely.

I'm buying but last year was last year. Henne was forced to basically throw it every down because they couldn't run the ball to save their lives. This is a new year and MJD will be rushing for more than the 40 YPG Richard Owens did.

Not sure where to rank him at the moment.
Good posting.

IMO those are all the reasons he won't continue to plow along at a top-10 pace. But he'll easily outperform the WR36 where the staff rankings have him.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Glad I picked him up last year in my Dynasty league.
Thanks for that contribution. There's some decent discussion here. It was probably best to dilute it.

Anyway... Given the FBG composite ADP he's going WR32 with a range across the different sites of 71 overall to 101 overall. If you want him, you should probably plan on spending a 7th. Might not get him if you have a late 7th. Here's the company he keeps in the ADPs:

Smiff

James Jones

Stevie

Tavon Austin

T.Y. Hilton

Shorts

Maclin

Gordon

DeSean

Miles Austin

Danario

Britt

Mike Williams

I'd have a hard time reaching for Shorts over a proven player like Steve Smith, but most of these guys have plenty of question marks without the upside of Shorts. Stevie, Maclin, DeSean, Hilton, Danario are all in new offenses. Hilton hasn't even won the #2 job yet. Personally, I really like Miles Austin. At WR36 he's a steal. He's more proven than any of the other guys in that lower range and his only real injuries are hamstrings. So I'd be pretty happy with Shorts or Austin as a WR3. Britt is risky, but he's in a contract year and over a year removed from his ACL injury. But overall, I don't think the opportunity cost of gambling on Shorts is very high here.

With Blackmon suspended for 4 games, Shorts becomes an easier pick. He'll have a decent shot at a hot start and if your WR4 is performing maybe you move Shorts after 2-3 weeks. If not, you can hope that the chemistry he developed with the starting QB carries over and his drop off isn't too bad when Blackmon returns. Blackmon is WR42 so maybe grab both, but owning two Jax WRs is kind of scary.

Finally, you've got concussions to worry about. I don't know if last year was an isolated thing or if he's had a history of them. That could cause a guy to play more tentatively, or it could be an Austin Collie type thing where you've just wasted a pick. I choose to roll the dice on these concussion risks. It seems there are many more cases of guys bouncing back, but the Austin Collie story gets a lot of attention so it strikes fear into everybody.

 

Mr Non Sequitur

Footballguy
Jacksonville has 2 solid OT to bookend the line. Most of the pass rush comes from the edge, sometimes up the middle but offenses by design are better equipped to handle pass rushes up the middle.

Gabbert has not had much time to throw the ball. I think he will have an extra half second to maybe full second compared to last season to find guys open. I'm not saying the Jags will be a vertical passing team but they finally have some stability at the OL with what they did in the draft.

MJD is still going to be what defenses are looking to key in on and daring Gabbert to beat them. I don't know how I feel about Shorts just yet but I am intrigued with the suddenly stable Tackle spots.

 
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bengalbuck

Footballguy
He is a good player, but I also think there was some luck/extenuating circumstances that led to the big numbers in the small sample size.

1. He had quite a few big plays and long TDs. That is always a combo of good offensive play and bad defense. But he had a couple that really just looked like blown coverages. Somewhat akin to people drafting Victor Cruz based on his monster 2011 stats and predicting a repeat, I think he comes back to earth a bit statistically without those long TDs that are hard to count on occurring consistently for any WR. Like Cruz, I do think he is a talented guy who will be around for a while, but that his YPC is likely to regress to a lower number with less big plays.

2. I watched a few of his bigger games and they were just weird games all around. He had a 70 or so yard catch against Houston for example in a game totally lacking in defense during this weird few game stretch where the Texans D disappeared. I believe Schaub had over 500 yards passing that game for example and it was just wide open. Also, a 60 yard TD against Tennessee when their D was really struggling. Some big plays against a mediocre Indy defense where the Safeties seemed badly out of positioin, etc.

3. J'ville just couldn't run the ball well at all and fell behind early in a lot of games later in the year. They were pretty aggressive in throwing to come back. Will they throw it around much with Gabbert at QB and a defensive minded head coach who seems to want to build the offense around the OL and running game?

Overall, I think he is a good player. But I don't think his upside is what people are making it out to be based on a small sample size that includes some long TDs that skew the stats. Injury risk, new coaching staff, bad QBs still, I think he is being drafted about where he should be....I'm not avoiding him, but not planning to reach to make sure I get him either.

 

loose circuits

Footballguy
Don't get how some people believe the return of MJD is a bad thing. A running game to draw that safety into the box takes the pressure off Shorts. Also, Mac's D probably wont be top notch so they could play from behind quite a bit.

Shorts is in my top 24 easily for dynasty leagues. The dude has legit skills

 
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Mimo

Footballguy
Offered Shorts straight up for Crabtree, instant reject. Also most of my league members not buying the hype and potential upside given Blackmon's suspension.

 

bengalbuck

Footballguy
Don't get how some people believe the return of MJD is a bad thing. A running game to draw that safety into the box takes the pressure off Shorts. Also, Mac's D probably wont be top notch so they could play from behind quite a bit.Shorts is in my top 24 easily for dynasty leagues. The dude has legit skills
Easily top 24 is pretty high...

I don't dislike him, but I think once you get past the top 15 or 20 dynasty WRs it is just pick your poison and the position is crazy deep. Guys like Pierre Garcon, DeAndre Hopkins, TY Hilton, Danny Amendola, Tavon Austin, etc. are non-top 20 guys I would probably take over Shorts. Justin Blackmon is also outside the top 20. There are a whole lot of young WRs with "legit skills" in my opinion, so it comes down to looking at situation and trying to decide which talents you believe in most.

I do think in drafts if you choose to wait on WR, there is a ton of depth and Shorts (at WR40 or so I believe) is a great example of how deep the position is.

 

Hoosier16

Footballguy
He is a good player, but I also think there was some luck/extenuating circumstances that led to the big numbers in the small sample size. 1. He had quite a few big plays and long TDs. That is always a combo of good offensive play and bad defense. But he had a couple that really just looked like blown coverages. Somewhat akin to people drafting Victor Cruz based on his monster 2011 stats and predicting a repeat, I think he comes back to earth a bit statistically without those long TDs that are hard to count on occurring consistently for any WR. Like Cruz, I do think he is a talented guy who will be around for a while, but that his YPC is likely to regress to a lower number with less big plays. Overall, I think he is a good player. But I don't think his upside is what people are making it out to be based on a small sample size that includes some long TDs that skew the stats. Injury risk, new coaching staff, bad QBs still, I think he is being drafted about where he should be....I'm not avoiding him, but not planning to reach to make sure I get him either.
I think this is very similar to the Cruz situation. He came out of nowhere, had some long TDs, and had another WR on the team who was supposed to be better. And, while Cruz didn't repeat, he still finished in the 10-13 range, far above where he was being drafted. I think Shorts will have a simialr year, finishing much closer to 15 than he will to 40.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
I'm high on him, but there are question marks surrounding. How much the Jags will pass with MJD back and Gabbert under center as well as how many balls he'll command versus(with) Blackmon namely.

I'm buying but last year was last year. Henne was forced to basically throw it every down because they couldn't run the ball to save their lives. This is a new year and MJD will be rushing for more than the 40 YPG Richard Owens did.

Not sure where to rank him at the moment.
Good posting.

IMO those are all the reasons he won't continue to plow along at a top-10 pace. But he'll easily outperform the WR36 where the staff rankings have him.
Who ranked ahead of him will finish below him?

If he plays 16 games he'll probably finish better than WR36, but part of that will be because 10-15 players in front of him missed time.

That said, him being at the Fitz camp actually caught my attention more than his finish to last season. Direct correlation to success from players at that camp. He's creeping up my board, I have him in a tier around #30. I'd rather have him as a 4, but could stomach him as a 3.

 

Two Deep

Footballguy
I don't see him sneaking up on opposing D's this year. Good solid receiver but not dominating like he appeared to be at times last year.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
MAC_32 said:
wdcrob said:
Toad_1234 said:
I'm high on him, but there are question marks surrounding. How much the Jags will pass with MJD back and Gabbert under center as well as how many balls he'll command versus(with) Blackmon namely. I'm buying but last year was last year. Henne was forced to basically throw it every down because they couldn't run the ball to save their lives. This is a new year and MJD will be rushing for more than the 40 YPG Richard Owens did. Not sure where to rank him at the moment.
Good posting. IMO those are all the reasons he won't continue to plow along at a top-10 pace. But he'll easily outperform the WR36 where the staff rankings have him.
Who ranked ahead of him will finish below him? If he plays 16 games he'll probably finish better than WR36, but part of that will be because 10-15 players in front of him missed time. That said, him being at the Fitz camp actually caught my attention more than his finish to last season. Direct correlation to success from players at that camp. He's creeping up my board, I have him in a tier around #30. I'd rather have him as a 4, but could stomach him as a 3.
Staff projections have him at 22/24/25/30 on a ppg basis. I might bump him slightly from there, but those seem pretty sensible. So OK as a WR2, but great as a WR3.And on a ppg basis I think he's much more likely to hit 15ppg (~WR15) than he is to put up 12ppg (WR36).
 

Quibbler

Footballguy
I love that he's learning from Larry Fitzgerald.

But am I the only one worried about the concussions? Two in a month is a red flag to me. He's been cleared to play, so there shouldn't be a lingering issue, but I'm a little worried that he may have some sort of susceptibility to head injuries. At least the team seems to have taken it seriously (putting him on IR).

 

GroveDiesel

Footballguy
I love that he's learning from Larry Fitzgerald. But am I the only one worried about the concussions? Two in a month is a red flag to me. He's been cleared to play, so there shouldn't be a lingering issue, but I'm a little worried that he may have some sort of susceptibility to head injuries. At least the team seems to have taken it seriously (putting him on IR).
After getting a concussion myself last week, I have educated myself for more.The odds are very high that he came back too soon and that his first concussion wasn't totally healed. When your concussion isn't totally healed, you are much more susceptible to another concussion. I didn't have a baseline teat done or MRIs like NFL players do, but my doctor said no physical activity until I've gone 2 weeks with no symptoms. That means every time I experience a concussion symptom it resets the clock to 2 weeks.Once you are totally healed up, you shouldn't be more susceptible to concussions than anyone else.So I would say the odds are that he came back too soon and that's what lead to his second concussion. Hopefully he's 100% normal now. The problem is that it really can take literally months to be 100% and sustaining a second concussion when not fully healed generally does a lot more damage. I would say draft assuming he's fine, but if he sustains another concussion you might as well consider it game over for him.
 

Khy

Footballguy
I'm about as high on him as I can get with Blaine Gabbert throwing him the ball. Which isn't that high. If this kid was on any other team with a developing young QB he'd probably be looked at as a Top 15 WR right now. Put him on MIA, STL, IND, WAS and he's instantly a WR1 stud.

Personally, I'm hoping a miracle happens and Matt Scott gets healthy and wins a spot on the team in camp. I feel like if that happened he'll be the starter by Week 6 when the Jags are 0-6. He'll leap frog Henne as the Jags saw what Henne could give them last year, it was one amazing game and then he went back to being Chad Henne. They'd much rather see what they have in someone like Scott or even Jordan Rodgers. Neither are leaps better than Gabbert but at least they can make some plays on the field. Think Denver when the benched Orton and started Tebow but with more upside to the WRs than Tebow gave Denver. Similar scenarios though, get rid of the dead weight at QB and put in someone who can at least make something happen.

 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
He (and Blackmon) were top 10 on a PPG basis in PPR leagues after Henne took over...
Shorts was top 10 over nine games -- three with Gabbert and six with Henne. It wasn't limited to either guy.
Shorts' numbers with each of Gabbert and Henne were almost identical on an average basis (numbers = targets, catches, and yardage)
Why does it seem like Shorts was so much better with Henne???

 

Shawn

Footballguy
He (and Blackmon) were top 10 on a PPG basis in PPR leagues after Henne took over...
Shorts was top 10 over nine games -- three with Gabbert and six with Henne. It wasn't limited to either guy.
Shorts' numbers with each of Gabbert and Henne were almost identical on an average basis (numbers = targets, catches, and yardage)
Why does it seem like Shorts was so much better with Henne???
Because Gabbert is TERRIBLE
 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
He (and Blackmon) were top 10 on a PPG basis in PPR leagues after Henne took over...
Shorts was top 10 over nine games -- three with Gabbert and six with Henne. It wasn't limited to either guy.
Shorts' numbers with each of Gabbert and Henne were almost identical on an average basis (numbers = targets, catches, and yardage)
Why does it seem like Shorts was so much better with Henne???
Because Gabbert is TERRIBLE
Ha, well yeah, that was my feeling too, not alone in that, so I was surprised if the above stats were true.

Personally I've gone from thinking of outright cutting Shorts in disgust to starting him.

 

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