Chad Johnson (1 Viewer)

[AnonymousBob]

Is Chad Johnson overrated as far as fantasy football is concerned? He finished as the number three wr last year (7th ppg). He has finished with 1,355 1,274 and 1,432 yards the past three years. He's had 10, 9, 9 td's the past three seasons. His reception totals have increased every year, with 97 coming this past season.

While it appears Palmer's injury is no longer a concern, Carson has said he's in the past forced the ball CJ's way when he shouldn't have. With Palmer maturing as a passer and Houshmandzadeh improving as well, I don't understand how he is being ranked so high. Ahead of Owens and Holt? He's never had the seasons they've had. Do people really see CJ having a monstrous career year or is he merely viewed as a safe pick? A guy who likely won't finish #1 but just as likely won't finish out of the top ten?

 

[diesel7982]

Is Chad Johnson overrated as far as fantasy football is concerned? He finished as the number three wr last year (7th ppg). He has finished with 1,355 1,274 and 1,432 yards the past three years. He's had 10, 9, 9 td's the past three seasons. His reception totals have increased every year, with 97 coming this past season.

While it appears Palmer's injury is no longer a concern, Carson has said he's in the past forced the ball CJ's way when he shouldn't have. With Palmer maturing as a passer and Houshmandzadeh improving as well, I don't understand how he is being ranked so high. Ahead of Owens and Holt? He's never had the seasons they've had. Do people really see CJ having a monstrous career year or is he merely viewed as a safe pick? A guy who likely won't finish #1 but just as likely won't finish out of the top ten?

Having only 8 months to recover from an ACL injury isnt a concern?

 

[AnonymousBob]

Is Chad Johnson overrated as far as fantasy football is concerned?  He finished as the number three wr last year (7th ppg).  He has finished with 1,355 1,274 and 1,432 yards the past three years.  He's had 10, 9, 9 td's the past three seasons.  His reception totals have increased every year, with 97 coming this past season.

While it appears Palmer's injury is no longer a concern, Carson has said he's in the past forced the ball CJ's way when he shouldn't have.  With Palmer maturing as a passer and Houshmandzadeh improving as well, I don't understand how he is being ranked so high.  Ahead of Owens and Holt?  He's never had the seasons they've had.  Do people really see CJ having a monstrous career year or is he merely viewed as a safe pick?  A guy who likely won't finish #1 but just as likely won't finish out of the top ten?

Having only 8 months to recover from an ACL injury isnt a concern?

I have not dismissed the injury but it's not scaring me now nearly as much as it did some months ago. I should change the wording. It's something I'm keeping an eye on but "concern"? Not really, reports have been coming along for some time how well he's progressing. I know this is camp season and lots of optimism floats about so who knows if those are true.Though if you're still concerned about Palmer that's all the more reason to knock him from the rankings. Who's their backup? Anthony Wright? Doug Johnson?

 

[diesel7982]

Is Chad Johnson overrated as far as fantasy football is concerned?  He finished as the number three wr last year (7th ppg).  He has finished with 1,355 1,274 and 1,432 yards the past three years.  He's had 10, 9, 9 td's the past three seasons.  His reception totals have increased every year, with 97 coming this past season.

While it appears Palmer's injury is no longer a concern, Carson has said he's in the past forced the ball CJ's way when he shouldn't have.  With Palmer maturing as a passer and Houshmandzadeh improving as well, I don't understand how he is being ranked so high.  Ahead of Owens and Holt?  He's never had the seasons they've had.  Do people really see CJ having a monstrous career year or is he merely viewed as a safe pick?  A guy who likely won't finish #1 but just as likely won't finish out of the top ten?

Having only 8 months to recover from an ACL injury isnt a concern?

I have not dismissed the injury but it's not scaring me now nearly as much as it did some months ago. I should change the wording. It's something I'm keeping an eye on but "concern"? Not really, reports have been coming along for some time how well he's progressing. I know this is camp season and lots of optimism floats about so who knows if those are true.Though if you're still concerned about Palmer that's all the more reason to knock him from the rankings. Who's their backup? Anthony Wright? Doug Johnson?

This is my main concern.If Palmer is 100%, CJ is a top 3 WR. Hes ranked 3rd, 9th, and 4th over the last 3 years.

As far as him ranking ahead of Owens, thats obviously a risk thing. Owens hasnt finished a season in how long? 3-4 years? Owens has finished 12th, 4th, and 32nd over the last 3 years.

Holt you may have a legitimate claim on, but he is playing in a new offense, and there is some concern of losing Martz. He has finished 2nd, 7th and 6th over the last 3 years.

Overall, Im not sure where you are getting "hes never had the seasons they have had" comment.

CJs Career Stats:

| 2001 cin |  12 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    28    329  11.8    1 || 2002 cin |  16 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    69   1166  16.9    5 || 2003 cin |  16 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    90   1355  15.1   10 || 2004 cin |  16 |     4     39    9.8    0 |    95   1274  13.4    9 || 2005 cin |  16 |     5     33    6.6    0 |    97   1432  14.8    9

 

[AnonymousBob]

Losing Mike Martz but not exactly gaining Joe Schmoe. Linehan has had himself a few good wr's before and those wr's have had pretty solid fantasy numbers.

Good point about Owens' health. Health was the main reason I did not mention Moss.

CJ has had very good years but his peak seasons have not been to the level of Holt or Owens. Of course he's still young. He's matched TO with yardage but not td's. He's come close but not yet matched Holt in yards or td's.

 

[diesel7982]

Losing Mike Martz but not exactly gaining Joe Schmoe. Linehan has had himself a few good wr's before and those wr's have had pretty solid fantasy numbers.

Good point about Owens' health. Health was the main reason I did not mention Moss.

CJ has had very good years but his peak seasons have not been to the level of Holt or Owens. Of course he's still young. He's matched TO with yardage but not td's. He's come close but not yet matched Holt in yards or td's.

You might be underestimating the effect of Linehan becoming a HC. While yes, he has been a fairly strong OC in the NFL, hes also a 1st year HC, who might be in over his head, and not be able to fully concentrate on just the offensive side of the ball. Greg Olson, their new OC, is scarily horrible in my opinion. I think you are being a little nitpicky about CJ not reaching the level of what Holt or Owens have done in their careers. No one is suggesting that Holt or Owens will have career years this year, so while CJ might never have met their career highs, he might not need to this year to be a top 3 WR. (wow thats a poorly typed sentence, sorry, its 2AM)

 

[Black Box]

I take the philosophy that you can't predict who will be the #1, #2, #3 receiver from year to year. It just fluctuates too much.

The best you can do is look at a guy and determine his probability for a top X finish.

CJ is the #1 receiver on his team. CJ is young. CJ is in a high-powered offense. CJ has a solid QB (granted, this is pending on injury recovery). CJ has been consistant for 3 years. CJ's teams defense is suspect (good for a WR).

Therefore, CJ is a good bet for a top 5 finish and is worth a top pick just as much as any other top receiver in a redraft, IMO.

 

[thayman]

I take the philosophy that you can't predict who will be the #1, #2, #3 receiver from year to year. It just fluctuates too much.

The best you can do is look at a guy and determine his probability for a top X finish.

CJ is the #1 receiver on his team. CJ is young. CJ is in a high-powered offense. CJ has a solid QB (granted, this is pending on injury recovery). CJ has been consistant for 3 years. CJ's teams defense is suspect (good for a WR).

Therefore, CJ is a good bet for a top 5 finish and is worth a top pick just as much as any other top receiver in a redraft, IMO.

I'd add, that yes I do think someone in your draft will take him entirely too early though.......

 

[videoguy505]

I take the philosophy that you can't predict who will be the #1, #2, #3 receiver from year to year. It just fluctuates too much.

The best you can do is look at a guy and determine his probability for a top X finish.

CJ is the #1 receiver on his team. CJ is young. CJ is in a high-powered offense. CJ has a solid QB (granted, this is pending on injury recovery). CJ has been consistant for 3 years. CJ's teams defense is suspect (good for a WR).

Therefore, CJ is a good bet for a top 5 finish and is worth a top pick just as much as any other top receiver in a redraft, IMO.

 

[gang-wars]

I take the philosophy that you can't predict who will be the #1, #2, #3 receiver from year to year. It just fluctuates too much.

The best you can do is look at a guy and determine his probability for a top X finish.

CJ is the #1 receiver on his team. CJ is young. CJ is in a high-powered offense. CJ has a solid QB (granted, this is pending on injury recovery). CJ has been consistant for 3 years. CJ's teams defense is suspect (good for a WR).

Therefore, CJ is a good bet for a top 5 finish and is worth a top pick just as much as any other top receiver in a redraft, IMO.

CJ is young? So I guess Randy Moss is young too. CJ is 28. That's not young. Fitz is young, he's 23.The OP is exactly right. He's very overrated. If he didn't dance/yap he wouldn't be a top 5 WR on most people’s boards. Last half of the year Housh had just as many TDs. Housh might be a better big play WR. Without Palmer force feeding CJ (and CJ punching coaches when he isn't forced fed) he'd be a loud D-JAX.

I mean his career high is 10 tds? There's 15 WRs who've had better career years in the last 5 years. CJ isn't going to ever get you 13-14-15 TDs.

He's a safe pick. He's in a nice offense. I wouldn't be surprised if Housh ends up with more TDs this year. 2005 - PPG 8th. 2004 PPG 10th. 2003 PPG 4th. In a redraft TO/SS/Harrison/Holt are going to kill CJ in PPG. As they all did last year and the year before (except SS - injured). Then toss in Boldin/Fitz/Randy Moss. CJ is WR5-8.

A nice safe WR.

 

[Bri]

Is Chad Johnson overrated as far as fantasy football is concerned? He finished as the number three wr last year (7th ppg). He has finished with 1,355 1,274 and 1,432 yards the past three years. He's had 10, 9, 9 td's the past three seasons. His reception totals have increased every year, with 97 coming this past season.

While it appears Palmer's injury is no longer a concern, Carson has said he's in the past forced the ball CJ's way when he shouldn't have. With Palmer maturing as a passer and Houshmandzadeh improving as well, I don't understand how he is being ranked so high. Ahead of Owens and Holt? He's never had the seasons they've had. Do people really see CJ having a monstrous career year or is he merely viewed as a safe pick? A guy who likely won't finish #1 but just as likely won't finish out of the top ten?

Bolded on part above because I think that's very important. He already made the top 3. Suppose ya bump him and think Owens will be in that top 3, well then he's just 4. If dynasty, then there's the ages and how some will look at 31 or 32 as the beginning of the end(Owens and Holt are closer to that point)

I don't find anything noteworthy about Palmer forcing the ball to CJ. He has confidence in him and we all know that. Most people think there is always someone open or else a QB throws it away or gets sacked. That's not true and sometimes it's a blind faith throw he's gotta make. Granted, the great Favre probably forces more than he should but you could watch a bunch of Favre games and find him almost daring the WR to catch it as he fires it to his coverred WR.(BTW I find this entertaining to watch please relax, Favre basher patrol association)

I'd have agreed if your reasoning was Palmer will either miss time or pass less til he gains confidence in his knee and they'll open with a grind it out ground game but.....

 

[Pick]

Cincy WRs are a handful.

 

[cstu]

Try under-rated. Maybe if the guy would promote himself a little people might know who he is.

 

[Joe T]

I agree that he is slightly over rated this year. The emergence of Housh will hurt his numbers slightly.

CJ's popularity factor is the reason he is over valued. You can have a similar receiver (Hines Ward) a round and a half later and not miss a thing.

T. Holt is the clear #1 WR this year in my book. I think CJ is in the 6-7 range.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

FINALLY...I've been pimping this for months any chance I could get.

On a game to game basis, Chad Johnson is a roleplayer in fantasy football. He will not win you games but rather put up consistent solid numbers that won't lose you the game. With guys like TO or Steve Smith they can win you the game on their own even when your RBs flop for the week, that will not happen with CJ.

I ran all the numbers on CJ a while back, he had fewer 100 yard games than all the other top WRs, and only 1 multi-TD game last year. He also had only one game where he scored 20+ fantasy points (standard 10/6 scoring) and none with 30+ points, whereas a guy like TO despite only playing 7 games had several 20 and 30+ point games. I'll see if I can dig up the numbers from a post I made on this a while back later tonight.

EDIT: Here are the numbers:

-Steve Smith went over 20pts six times, over 30pts twice, and over 10pts thirteen times in 16 games.

-Torry Holt went over 20pts two times, over 30pts once, and over 10pts nine times out of fourteen games.

-Terrell owens went over 20pts three times and over 10pts six times out of only 7 games.

-Larry Fitzgerald went over 20pts two times and over 10pts twelve times out of 16 games.

-Anquan Boldin went over 20pts two times and over 10pts ten times out of only 14 games

CJ went over 20pts once, over 30pts zero times, and over 10pts only seven times in sixteen games.

The only place CJ does better than ANY of them is consistency where he generally scores 7-9 points in an "off" week as opposed to 6 or 7. From a "big game" perspective he can't keep up with any of them, most of whom had more big games in fewer tries.

I mean heck, TO had three times as many 20+ point games and only one fewer 10+ point game and he only played in SEVEN games compared to CJ's SIXTEEN!

Also, when Housh was healthy last year his numbers were pretty comparable to CJ's

 

[diesel7982]

FINALLY...I've been pimping this for months any chance I could get.

On a game to game basis, Chad Johnson is a roleplayer in fantasy football. He will not win you games but rather put up consistent solid numbers that won't lose you the game. With guys like TO or Steve Smith they can win you the game on their own even when your RBs flop for the week, that will not happen with CJ.

I ran all the numbers on CJ a while back, he had fewer 100 yard games than all the other top WRs, and only 1 multi-TD game last year. He also had only one game where he scored 20+ fantasy points (standard 10/6 scoring) and none with 30+ points, whereas a guy like TO despite only playing 7 games had several 20 and 30+ point games. I'll see if I can dig up the numbers from a post I made on this a while back later tonight.

Also, when Housh was healthy last year his numbers were pretty comparable to CJ's.

956/7 in 14 games vs 1432/9 in 16 games. Not really that comparable. CJ was at least 2 pts/gm better not including receptions.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

FINALLY...I've been pimping this for months any chance I could get.

On a game to game basis, Chad Johnson is a roleplayer in fantasy football. He will not win you games but rather put up consistent solid numbers that won't lose you the game. With guys like TO or Steve Smith they can win you the game on their own even when your RBs flop for the week, that will not happen with CJ.

I ran all the numbers on CJ a while back, he had fewer 100 yard games than all the other top WRs, and only 1 multi-TD game last year. He also had only one game where he scored 20+ fantasy points (standard 10/6 scoring) and none with 30+ points, whereas a guy like TO despite only playing 7 games had several 20 and 30+ point games. I'll see if I can dig up the numbers from a post I made on this a while back later tonight.

Also, when Housh was healthy last year his numbers were pretty comparable to CJ's.

956/7 in 14 games vs 1432/9 in 16 games. Not really that comparable. CJ was at least 2 pts/gm better not including receptions.

I said when they both played. When Housh in the lineup their numbers were:CJ - 1250yds, 7 TDs

Housh - 1000yds, 7 TDs

Chad had 7 games of 10+ points out of 16 or every 0.4375 games

Housh had 7 games of 10+ points out of 14 or every 0.5 games

Chad had 1 game of 20+ points out of 16 or every 0.0675 games

Housh had 2 games of 20+ points out of 14 or every 0.143 games

The main difference is that those games in between Chad was scoring 15-19 points while Housh was 11-14. Not all that large of a difference considering Housh went over 10 more often and over 20 more often and Housh is supposedly a "clear #2" whereas CJ is supposedly a top 3 WR in the entire league.

 

[AnonymousBob]

FINALLY...I've been pimping this for months any chance I could get.

On a game to game basis, Chad Johnson is a roleplayer in fantasy football. He will not win you games but rather put up consistent solid numbers that won't lose you the game. With guys like TO or Steve Smith they can win you the game on their own even when your RBs flop for the week, that will not happen with CJ.

I ran all the numbers on CJ a while back, he had fewer 100 yard games than all the other top WRs, and only 1 multi-TD game last year. He also had only one game where he scored 20+ fantasy points (standard 10/6 scoring) and none with 30+ points, whereas a guy like TO despite only playing 7 games had several 20 and 30+ point games. I'll see if I can dig up the numbers from a post I made on this a while back later tonight.

EDIT: Here are the numbers:

-Steve Smith went over 20pts six times, over 30pts twice, and over 10pts thirteen times in 16 games.

-Torry Holt went over 20pts two times, over 30pts once, and over 10pts nine times out of fourteen games.

-Terrell owens went over 20pts three times and over 10pts six times out of only 7 games.

-Larry Fitzgerald went over 20pts two times and over 10pts twelve times out of 16 games.

-Anquan Boldin went over 20pts two times and over 10pts ten times out of only 14 games

CJ went over 20pts once, over 30pts zero times, and over 10pts only seven times in sixteen games.

The only place CJ does better than ANY of them is consistency where he generally scores 7-9 points in an "off" week as opposed to 6 or 7. From a "big game" perspective he can't keep up with any of them, most of whom had more big games in fewer tries.

I mean heck, TO had three times as many 20+ point games and only one fewer 10+ point game and he only played in SEVEN games compared to CJ's SIXTEEN!

Also, when Housh was healthy last year his numbers were pretty comparable to CJ's

This is why IMO CJ does not belong in the elite tier of other fantasy wr's. If you're going to spend an early pick on a guy I'd think you would want somebody who can blowup for monster games and single handedly pick up the slack from your other players off days. Don't misunderstand me; 9-10 points is very good and I do value consistency. But you can get that type of guy several rounds later by the name of Darrell Jackson, Hines Ward, etc, while snagging yourself another stud rb. If I could get CJ as the fifth wr or later I would be happy to get him. But he's consistently being taken as the #1 wr! Seems silly to claim he's not overrated when in order for him to live up to his draft position he's going to have to have a career year. I understand ANY player being taken #1 at their position will be hard pressed to finish there but why not take a guy who has actually done it before rather?

 

[Footballhead]

CJ is young.

Here's where most people are mistaken....CJ is only 1 yr younger than Moss and many would consider Moss as old.

 

[DropKick]

CJ is young.

Here's where most people are mistaken....CJ is only 1 yr younger than Moss and many would consider Moss as old.

Relative to the WR position and the productivity seen there, few would consider Moss or CJ "old". I'll give you injury concerns with Randy but, not purely age.Rod Smith Born: 05/15/1970

Joe Horn Born: 01/16/1972

Marvin Harrison Born: 08/25/1972

Terrell Owens Born: 12/07/1973

Torry Holt Born: 06/05/1976

Randy Moss Born: 02/13/1977

Chad Johnson Born: 01/09/1978

Steve Smith Born: 05/12/1979

Larry Fitzgerald Born: 08/31/1983

As far as productivity goes... The Bengals have a well balanced offense. Rudi will get his as will the other Bengal WRs who are a talented group. CJ likely won't have many monster games but should be a consistently productive play.

I would imagine that most offensive coordinators would like that balance. Does Edge in Zona mean Fitz and Boldin see a few less targets? How about Steve Smith with either a return to the running game (oh, for a healthy RB) or a dependable possession option in Keyshawn? TO? I've heard Parcells say TO won't catch 100 balls in the Dallas offense.

I would rank CJ between 5th and 8th; with a large concern to the health of Palmer.

 

[zamboni]

CJ isn't going to ever get you 13-14-15 TDs.

That's what people used to say about Holt - lots of catches and yards, but few TDs. I agree that Housh cuts into some of Chad's numbers, but he also helps CJ by having a strong second target. Not unlike, yes, Bruce/Holt.

The Palmer injury is a concern, but CJ did quite well before him with Kitna. And don't forget, Palmer is still just scratching the surface - he might get even better. This can only help Chad.

 

[brobe4]

Chad Johnson= No#1 wr this year

 

[Challenge Everything]

Chad Johnson= No#1 wr this year

Without Carson... . With an injured Carson... . With Carson from day #1... . Its possible but I see to much spreading going on there this year.