Chances Peyton Isn't Peyton (1 Viewer)

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

I was just watching the NFL Network and 76% of the viewing population think the Broncos will win the Super Bowl in the 2012 season. Not can....but WILL. 76%?!?! I want to play devil's advocate now. What are the chances Manning is just an average QB in 2012? I think the chances are very real that he isn't the All-Pro Peyton Manning we have all grown to love watching. I'm by no means saying that I think he'll fail or turn into Rex Grossman, but there are more than just a few concerns I'd like to list for discussion. Personally I don't think he'll be the QB we know.

1) 4 neck surgeries: This is the most obvious. Can he sustain an NFL hit? Is there a chance he doesn't get his throwing power back because of the nerve injury?

2) Missed Time: Everyone is assuming that Manning will hop right into the Denver offense and throw for 4500 yards and 30+ TD's, but when he takes his first snap it will be 1.5 years since he's played competitive football. Playing QB in the NFL isn't like riding a bike. The missed time might affect Peyton for a number of games.

3) Age: 35 years old isn't young for an NFL QB. Players age at a different rate, I know that, but again the last time we saw Peyton take a snap in the NFL, he was 33 years old. Who's to say he didn't lose "IT" in the last 1.5 years? How often have we seen an All Pro go from an elite year to an average year the next?

4) 2010 season: Statistically Manning had a good 2010 NFL season, but when I watched him play I could tell something was off with him. He didn't look Peyton. People were talking about it in 2010....but everyone was chalking it up to WR inconsistency from numerous injuries and poor O-Line play. This could be true, but I did see Peyton make some horrible un-Manning-esk decisions. I wondered in 2010 if this was the first signs of Peyton's decline. Now 1.5 years later seems like a century ago.

5) WR inconsistency: If people want to give Peyton the benefit of the doubt for 2010....chalking it up to unfamiliar WR's, how's going into DEN with and entirely new WR corp any different? Demaryius Thomas is by all accounts not a refined route runner like Wayne, Collie, and Harrison are/were. Demaryius has the athletic skills, but will have to mature quickly with his route running. Decker I think is more ready to go than any other target Manning has, but was injured in playoffs last year and we have yet to hear if he'll be ready for OTAs or even training camp. That can't help for QB-WR being on the same page.

I know this is going to be a hot topic and I'll get scrutinized for this thread and it's not necessarily my feelings entirely. I do feel Manning will be very good still, just not the elite QB he was previously. I wanted to make this thread to point out that it's not time to hand Denver the trophy. There is still a chance that Manning could flat out be average or below average this fall.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

I'm surprised more people are not skeptical(not saying I am), but a couple weeks ago there were questions about if he could even throw the ball. I hope he is back to where he was and can stay healthy. NFL doctors know more than me but the neck injury still scares me.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

Herd w/Colin Cowherd @TheHerd 3m One of the few people to see Peyton Manning throw a football....Duke HC David Cutcilffe NEXT in the HERD! Listen: es.pn/kAlujf

ETA: Guy that has been training Payton at Duke. He said he's biased but that Payton is in great shape and ready to play.

 

[Shutout]

Somewhere in the forum a long time ago I had a post giving my wife's take on this (she works in this area on the rehab side). Summary: She said in 2010 before there was so much info on this that something was wrong. After the info came out, using all her big long words and such, she basically said he will never be the same again. so, i'll stand by her and agree on your side on this one.

I hope we are all wrong because its been a real treat over the years but I agree in thinking it is likely that we will not see what we saw before. Of course, Peyton at a reduced capacity might still be better than the majority of the league but I don't expect elite performance.

 

[shader]

The only way he isn't is if there is physically something wrong. He's not going to forget how to play QB, and he's one of the smartest QB's in NFL history.

Still, you have to wonder about his ability to take hits. You also have to wonder about the offensive line in Denver. I remember Tebow getting killed on passing downs last year, but Manning is infinitely better than Tebow at getting the ball out.

If healthy, I see no reason why he shouldn't perform at usual standards for the next 2 seasons or so.

Which means, he'll probably have a couple playoff chokes to enjoy watching over the next few seasons also.

 

[Warhogs]

I wouldn't go out and make superbowl predictions but I am pretty confident that his health is OK at this time. He wasn't afraid to work out for these clubs and they all came away saying good things. Obviously there are worries about age and injurie in the future but I believe what I am hearing about him being ready to go.

 

[Statcruncher]

Peyton has been running the show in Indy for years; the o-line, wr's, and rb's have all developed the chemistry that made them such an incredible offensive threat. IMO so much of what made the Indianapolis offense dangerous was stuff that can't be written into a playbook. It takes time and pratice to learn to know what each other is thinking and when. How long will it take to start fresh with a new NFL team and get to that point? Is it even possible? I don't doubt Manning will be a very good quarterback, I just don't think he has enough quality years left to get his team around him experienced enough to return to the elite level we've become used to.

 

[Jason Wood]

My main concern is the outdoor conditions. Most QBs don't put up as good numbers in the cold months outdoors, but Manning has played the majority of his career in climate control, so I really wonder how effective he's going to be in the wintry months up in the Mile High City.

 

[DoubleG]

Another minor point: you can't teach an old dog new tricks. What I mean by that, simply, is that there are quite a few examples of excellent QBs that have been part of one team their entire careers, moving and having somewhat less than "the usual" success on their new team. Joe Montana's stint with the Chiefs, Favre's numerous non-Packer appearances, are just a few off the top of my head (I'm sure there are numerous others). Whether this has to do with age, getting acclamated to a new team, new teammates, new system, new stadium, etc. I am not sure - but histroy is not on his side, per se.

The fact that the Denver defense was in the bottom 10 teams in points allowed and the o-line was in the bottom 10 in sacks allowed and all the factors others have posted above - I could easily see a situation where the Broncos again go 8-8 - just for different reasons.

Of course, I could also see them going 12-4 and Manning taking them deep in the playoffs - but it is hardly a given the way many think it might be. A great many things have to go right - and the NFL it seems that "instant chemistry" is usually not.

I realize this flies in the face of the "They were 8-8 with Tebow, they will obviously be better than that with Manning" mind set - except that football isn't that simple - and Manning is guaranteed to be "Manning-like" - especially given his physical situation, his age and many of the other variables that surround the Broncos. Could Manning fail? Yes, he could (presuming that "not going to the SuperBowl = fail in th case). Could he succeed? You bet. Which is more likely? Honestly, I am not sure right now.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

well you have to wonder in his 'down year' in 2010 if the neck was really bothering him, i mean it did spawn several neck surgeries. the big question is more like a 3part question.

1) does the neck surgery get him back to pre 2010 form, highly unlikely.

2)did the surgery just take the pain or discomfort and rapid deterioration away where he can atleast sustain his 2010 season form and be able to play a few more years?

3) did all the procedures help get him back somewhere inbetween the previous 2 assumptions(better than 2010 but less than 2009)?

the answer prolly comes of the last 2parts. a older(even the greats) that move to new teams usually see some drop in production. i know Peyton will workout/study like a maniace and will and hopefully prove me wrong but i'd guard that if he plays a full season 3200-3800 yards and 25-30TD's with a fair amount of INT's is his ceiling.

the best and toughest question of them all is will Elway/Fox have the fortitude to kinda direct or limit Peyton if he isn't successful from neck/age/new team

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I'm surprised more people are not skeptical(not saying I am), but a couple weeks ago there were questions about if he could even throw the ball. I hope he is back to where he was and can stay healthy. NFL doctors know more than me but the neck injury still scares me.

You can count me in for being skeptical in many ways.The injury is big enough but then you factor in how long it's been since he played as well as him just going to a team that really isnt very good. He will essenitally be teaching a whole new system there as well.

 

[Chase Stuart]

4) 2010 season: Statistically Manning had a good 2010 NFL season, but when I watched him play I could tell something was off with him. He didn't look Peyton. People were talking about it in 2010....but everyone was chalking it up to WR inconsistency from numerous injuries and poor O-Line play. This could be true, but I did see Peyton make some horrible un-Manning-esk decisions. I wondered in 2010 if this was the first signs of Peyton's decline. Now 1.5 years later seems like a century ago.

I agree with this point. That said, I think he might be rejuvenated. A season off and a new place could end up being a blessing in disguise for Manning. Perhaps missing the wear and tear and grind of a season will help him?That said, an argument could easily be made that he was in the middle of a decline. I generally look at two stats for quarterbacks: net yards per attempt, which is the best predictive measure of QB efficiency, and adjusted net yards per attempt, which includes TD and INT adjustments. Manning has always been outstanding in these metrics, but he took a nose dive in '08 and '10:

Year NFL NY/A NFL ANY/A PM NY/A PM ANY/A NY/A Ratio ANY/A Ratio2010 6.2 5.7 6.6 6.5 108% 113%2009 6.2 5.6 7.6 7.5 124% 133%2008 6.2 5.7 6.9 6.9 112% 121%2007 6.0 5.5 7.3 7.3 121% 132%2006 6.0 5.4 7.5 7.9 126% 147%2005 5.9 5.3 7.8 8.0 132% 150%2004 6.1 5.6 8.7 9.8 142% 174%2003 5.8 5.2 7.1 7.3 122% 141%2002 5.9 5.3 6.6 6.1 112% 114%2001 5.9 5.2 6.8 5.9 115% 113%2000 5.8 5.2 7.2 7.2 124% 139%1999 5.8 5.2 7.3 7.1 126% 136%1998 5.9 5.3 6.1 4.8 103% 91%In 2010, he was better than league average but far from the Peyton Manning we've come to expect. Even putting aside his monster 2004, he was generally about 25% better than average from '05 to '07 in NY/A and his TD/INT numbers were fantastic. In '08, he slipped from super elite to very good, and his performance in 2010 was his worst since the beginning of the decade.Manning won the MVP, of course, in 2008, but it was an award that many (myself included) thought was undeserved. He basically won it for a lot of game winning drives and a hot streak in the second half of the season. But Manning has never been about being great in spurts, he was always about just being great. To me, the decline started in '08. In 2009 he was excellent, although again I thought his MVP probably should have gone to Rivers or Brees. But in 2010, he flat out regressed. He averaged just 10.4 yards per completion, the fewest of his career. It would not be absurd to assume a career path where he started to regress in '08 from his GOAT levels to excellent, to then merely very good in 2010, to just above average in 2012. At 36, that's not an outlandish prediction.

OTOH, perhaps his neck was really causing him issues in 2010. His arm strength may have been sapped, which explains the low YPC numbers. It's just as easy to assume a 2012 Manning is fresher than the 2010 version, and will be back to his usual 20% above average in NY/A. But I think it's silly to not at least acknowledge there was a decline (from an admittedly absurd peak) going on the last three years of his career in Indy, and wonder where that puts him two years from that point. One could paint the picture (choosing end points liberally) that from ages 23 to 26 he was 19% above average in NY/A and 26% above average in ANY/A; from 27 to 31 he was 29% above average in NY/A and 49% above average in ANY/A; then from 32 to 34 he was only 15% and 22% above average in NY/A and ANY/A. Where does that leave him at age 36? Maybe 8% and 12%? Maybe even closer to average? On a new team with new receivers, who knows?

But it's Peyton Manning. I'll be incredibly hesitant to bet against him. The wheels will come off (or he'll retire) at some point, but I'd rather get burned betting on Peyton Manning than betting against him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

there are quite a few examples of excellent QBs that have been part of one team their entire careers, moving and having somewhat less than "the usual" success on their new team. Joe Montana's stint with the Chiefs, Favre's numerous non-Packer appearances, are just a few off the top of my head

Joe Montana took a fairly average Chiefs team to the AFC Championship game. Favre had the Jets at 8-3 and looking like the best team in the AFC before blowing out his arm and then took the Vikings to the NFC championship game the next season.Of course this has little to do with what Manning will do with Denver, but your examples don't really back up the point you were trying to make.

 

[BeTheMatch]

4) 2010 season: Statistically Manning had a good 2010 NFL season, but when I watched him play I could tell something was off with him. He didn't look Peyton. People were talking about it in 2010....but everyone was chalking it up to WR inconsistency from numerous injuries and poor O-Line play. This could be true, but I did see Peyton make some horrible un-Manning-esk decisions. I wondered in 2010 if this was the first signs of Peyton's decline. Now 1.5 years later seems like a century ago.

I agree with this point. That said, I think he might be rejuvenated. A season off and a new place could end up being a blessing in disguise for Manning. Perhaps missing the wear and tear and grind of a season will help him?That said, an argument could easily be made that he was in the middle of a decline. I generally look at two stats for quarterbacks: net yards per attempt, which is the best predictive measure of QB efficiency, and adjusted net yards per attempt, which includes TD and INT adjustments. Manning has always been outstanding in these metrics, but he took a nose dive in '08 and '10:

Year NFL NY/A NFL ANY/A PM NY/A PM ANY/A NY/A Ratio ANY/A Ratio2010 6.2 5.7 6.6 6.5 108% 113%2009 6.2 5.6 7.6 7.5 124% 133%2008 6.2 5.7 6.9 6.9 112% 121%2007 6.0 5.5 7.3 7.3 121% 132%2006 6.0 5.4 7.5 7.9 126% 147%2005 5.9 5.3 7.8 8.0 132% 150%2004 6.1 5.6 8.7 9.8 142% 174%2003 5.8 5.2 7.1 7.3 122% 141%2002 5.9 5.3 6.6 6.1 112% 114%2001 5.9 5.2 6.8 5.9 115% 113%2000 5.8 5.2 7.2 7.2 124% 139%1999 5.8 5.2 7.3 7.1 126% 136%1998 5.9 5.3 6.1 4.8 103% 91%In 2010, he was better than league average but far from the Peyton Manning we've come to expect. Even putting aside his monster 2004, he was generally about 25% better than average from '05 to '07 in NY/A and his TD/INT numbers were fantastic. In '08, he slipped from super elite to very good, and his performance in 2010 was his worst since the beginning of the decade.Manning won the MVP, of course, in 2008, but it was an award that many (myself included) thought was undeserved. He basically won it for a lot of game winning drives and a hot streak in the second half of the season. But Manning has never been about being great in spurts, he was always about just being great. To me, the decline started in '08. In 2009 he was excellent, although again I thought his MVP probably should have gone to Rivers or Brees. But in 2010, he flat out regressed. He averaged just 10.4 yards per completion, the fewest of his career. It would not be absurd to assume a career path where he started to regress in '08 from his GOAT levels to excellent, to then merely very good in 2010, to just above average in 2012. At 36, that's not an outlandish prediction.

OTOH, perhaps his neck was really causing him issues in 2010. His arm strength may have been sapped, which explains the low YPC numbers. It's just as easy to assume a 2012 Manning is fresher than the 2010 version, and will be back to his usual 20% above average in NY/A. But I think it's silly to not at least acknowledge there was a decline (from an admittedly absurd peak) going on the last three years of his career in Indy, and wonder where that puts him two years from that point. One could paint the picture (choosing end points liberally) that from ages 23 to 26 he was 19% above average in NY/A and 26% above average in ANY/A; from 27 to 31 he was 29% above average in NY/A and 49% above average in ANY/A; then from 32 to 34 he was only 15% and 22% above average in NY/A and ANY/A. Where does that leave him at age 36? Maybe 8% and 12%? Maybe even closer to average? On a new team with new receivers, who knows?

But it's Peyton Manning. I'll be incredibly hesitant to bet against him. The wheels will come off (or he'll retire) at some point, but I'd rather get burned betting on Peyton Manning than betting against him.

I think you can chalk up some of the recent regression to the o-line's worsening play, Reggie Wayne slowing down considerably, Clark's injuries, Collie's injuries, Garcon's inconsistency, the disappearance of the run game, to name just a few things.

 

[Tau837]

3) Age: 35 years old isn't young for an NFL QB. Players age at a different rate, I know that, but again the last time we saw Peyton take a snap in the NFL, he was 33 years old. Who's to say he didn't lose "IT" in the last 1.5 years? How often have we seen an All Pro go from an elite year to an average year the next?

Correction: Manning turns 36 this week; the last time he took a snap in the NFL, he was 34.Otherwise, good post. I agree and have posted my skepticism in other threads in recent weeks.

And you didn't even mention these things specifically: new coaches, new system, new teammates other than WRs (e.g., new OL, new RBs, new TEs), new setting (outdoors), new home (moving family).

 

[Raiderfan32904]

1) 4 neck surgeries: This is the most obvious. Can he sustain an NFL hit? Is there a chance he doesn't get his throwing power back because of the nerve injury?

By throwing power, I think you also have to infer besides velocity, will his release be just as quick as before? This is going to be key in defeating zone blitzes he’s routinely torched over the years. And not only can he sustain a hit? But what is his new threshold for pain? If there is any tingling in his extremities the day after, could he be shutdown for good unexpectedly?

2) Missed Time: Everyone is assuming that Manning will hop right into the Denver offense and throw for 4500 yards and 30+ TD's, but when he takes his first snap it will be 1.5 years since he's played competitive football. Playing QB in the NFL isn't like riding a bike. The missed time might affect Peyton for a number of games.

Also, in Manning’s case, he’s a precision field general who expects his wideouts, running backs, tight ends to be in exact locations before he makes his reads. A lot of communication has to be perfect or the play is easily blown up. Who can say he will quickly find that chemistry after 18 months off and an entirely new set of skill position players to work with? This seems like a huge challenge, and it would be naïve to think it’s something that can be perfected over the offseason. Denver’s skill position players are young and inconsistent to count on in the short term. Even if they bring in Clark, Saturday, and Addai, they are way past their prime to count on for another Super Bowl run.

3) Age: 35 years old isn't young for an NFL QB. Players age at a different rate, I know that, but again the last time we saw Peyton take a snap in the NFL, he was 33 years old. Who's to say he didn't lose "IT" in the last 1.5 years? How often have we seen an All Pro go from an elite year to an average year the next?

I will give Peyton the benefit of the doubt on this one. He’s the perfect field general. But if there are any effects from the neck surgeries that have diminished his 1) arm speed, or 2) speed of delivery/release, then all bets are off.

4) 2010 season: Statistically Manning had a good 2010 NFL season, but when I watched him play I could tell something was off with him. He didn't look Peyton. People were talking about it in 2010....but everyone was chalking it up to WR inconsistency from numerous injuries and poor O-Line play. This could be true, but I did see Peyton make some horrible un-Manning-esk decisions. I wondered in 2010 if this was the first signs of Peyton's decline. Now 1.5 years later seems like a century ago.

Manning at his age and rust is still an elite QB in the NFL, until he proves otherwise. It’s the supporting cast that is in doubt for him to be the recognizable Manning of old.

5) WR inconsistency: If people want to give Peyton the benefit of the doubt for 2010....chalking it up to unfamiliar WR's, how's going into DEN with and entirely new WR corp any different? Demaryius Thomas is by all accounts not a refined route runner like Wayne, Collie, and Harrison are/were. Demaryius has the athletic skills, but will have to mature quickly with his route running. Decker I think is more ready to go than any other target Manning has, but was injured in playoffs last year and we have yet to hear if he'll be ready for OTAs or even training camp. That can't help for QB-WR being on the same page.

Great point. I agree about the young & inconsistent and relatively unproven WR crew.

I know this is going to be a hot topic and I'll get scrutinized for this thread and it's not necessarily my feelings entirely. I do feel Manning will be very good still, just not the elite QB he was previously. I wanted to make this thread to point out that it's not time to hand Denver the trophy. There is still a chance that Manning could flat out be average or below average this fall.

I’ll add another potential component of failure. Manning has always been a QB whose ego and stature has never allowed a QB of decent NFL quality. He’s always had a Jim Sorgi or Curtis Painter holding a clipboard with no safety net to work with. He was always an ironman until all the news of his neck injuries and then missing all last year. He didn’t need a good backup. It’s doubtful that Denver will sign anyone better than a Sorgi or Painter type to back him up now, and with Manning’s injury history, the Bronco’s eggs are all in Manning’s basket. He’s got a 5 year deal…. (but let’s be honest, he’s got a degenerative neck problem that he’ll live with the rest of his life) …he’s probably good for 3 or 4 years with any luck. What level of play within those years will he be elite? 80% of the old Peyton? 50% of the old Peyton? Who knows. And how long is that window for the Broncos to assemble all those moving parts to Peyton’s exacting standards? A year? Two years? Also consider that the defense has many holes other than a few good pieces and a new DC.And when Peyton finally hangs em up, expect the Broncos to go into full rebuilding mode, just like the Colts are in now. Just like the Vikings were post-Favre.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think you can chalk up some of the recent regression to the o-line's worsening play, Reggie Wayne slowing down considerably, Clark's injuries, Collie's injuries, Garcon's inconsistency, the disappearance of the run game, to name just a few things.

I'm inclined to agree. But I wonder if things are any better in DEN? Not sure the OL is any better, and it's unclear whether the targets represent an upgrade or not.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I think you can chalk up some of the recent regression to the o-line's worsening play, Reggie Wayne slowing down considerably, Clark's injuries, Collie's injuries, Garcon's inconsistency, the disappearance of the run game, to name just a few things.

I'm inclined to agree. But I wonder if things are any better in DEN? Not sure the OL is any better, and it's unclear whether the targets represent an upgrade or not.

I think Decker might catch 85 passes this season if he's healthy all year. Manning will absolutely love this guy.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Re: the neck injury. I had the exact same surgery that Manning had just over a year ago. For the record, I thought at the time of his surgery it was likely he might choose to retire. That said, there are essentially 2 issues going forward - 1) the extent of the nerve damage he had and amount of strength he regenerates, and 2) problems with the disks on the other sides of the fused vertebra.

Once you have the problem disk removed and bone fused, there is nothing left to press on spinal cord in that area so the immediate problem is eliminated. The problem is that you lose roughly 10% range of motion for every level that is fused and the levels on the other side are exposed to more torsion/stress. It's easy to tell with an MRI how healthy those disks are, so given the number of teams that have checked him I don't think they see an immediate concern.

That leaves the issue of arm strength. By all accounts he is progressing, but there's probably no way of knowing for certain if he ever makes it fully back to where he was before he started having the neck issues.

 

[JohnnyU]

My main concern is the outdoor conditions. Most QBs don't put up as good numbers in the cold months outdoors, but Manning has played the majority of his career in climate control, so I really wonder how effective he's going to be in the wintry months up in the Mile High City.

He looked pretty good in a constant down pour in the Super Bowl.

 

[5Rings]

I'd be more concerned that Manning is going to a team that is vastly overrated. It was only a year ago that Denver was the 2nd worst team in the league. Last year was a perfect storm of last place schedule and Tebonics that led this poor team to overperform. Without Manning, I think Denver is a 5-6 win team. With Manning, its a .500 team.

I hope Manning doesn't take the fall for Denver's regression to mean.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

I'd be more concerned that Manning is going to a team that is vastly overrated. It was only a year ago that Denver was the 2nd worst team in the league. Last year was a perfect storm of last place schedule and Tebonics that led this poor team to overperform. Without Manning, I think Denver is a 5-6 win team. With Manning, its a .500 team.I hope Manning doesn't take the fall for Denver's regression to mean.

Great points! They will have a first place schedule this year......which means Patriots, Ravens, and Texans. I do think Denver was a bit overrated as well.

 

[Sinn Fein]

This is where I think playing for John Fox will benefit Manning - Fox wants to be a run-first, ball control offense. I think the Broncos will continue to focus on the run, while utilizing Mannings football IQ to keep defenses honest. Manning just has to make a few key plays to make this work, rather than carry the entire offense like he did in Indy. In Elway's last 5 seasons (34-38 years) he never had 4000 yards passing, and averaged about an 88 QB rating - solid, but not spectacular. I think they are looking for the same type of stats from Manning - make smart decisions, move the chains, keep defenses honest, hit an occasional big play.

 

[BeTheMatch]

This is where I think playing for John Fox will benefit Manning - Fox wants to be a run-first, ball control offense. I think the Broncos will continue to focus on the run, while utilizing Mannings football IQ to keep defenses honest. Manning just has to make a few key plays to make this work, rather than carry the entire offense like he did in Indy. In Elway's last 5 seasons (34-38 years) he never had 4000 yards passing, and averaged about an 88 QB rating - solid, but not spectacular. I think they are looking for the same type of stats from Manning - make smart decisions, move the chains, keep defenses honest, hit an occasional big play.

You think they gave him 96 million dollars to hit an occasional big play? I don't.

 

[Sinn Fein]

This is where I think playing for John Fox will benefit Manning - Fox wants to be a run-first, ball control offense. I think the Broncos will continue to focus on the run, while utilizing Mannings football IQ to keep defenses honest. Manning just has to make a few key plays to make this work, rather than carry the entire offense like he did in Indy. In Elway's last 5 seasons (34-38 years) he never had 4000 yards passing, and averaged about an 88 QB rating - solid, but not spectacular. I think they are looking for the same type of stats from Manning - make smart decisions, move the chains, keep defenses honest, hit an occasional big play.

You think they gave him 96 million dollars to hit an occasional big play? I don't.

I think they gave him 96 million to bring a better, more consistent offense to the table. I think Elway hated having to rely on Tebow. I think Elway was willing to overpay to figure out how to get away from Tebow. I think Elway (and Fox) believe that they have a better chance to win a super bowl in the next 5 years with Manning, than they did with Tebow.

 

[BeTheMatch]

This is where I think playing for John Fox will benefit Manning - Fox wants to be a run-first, ball control offense. I think the Broncos will continue to focus on the run, while utilizing Mannings football IQ to keep defenses honest. Manning just has to make a few key plays to make this work, rather than carry the entire offense like he did in Indy. In Elway's last 5 seasons (34-38 years) he never had 4000 yards passing, and averaged about an 88 QB rating - solid, but not spectacular. I think they are looking for the same type of stats from Manning - make smart decisions, move the chains, keep defenses honest, hit an occasional big play.

You think they gave him 96 million dollars to hit an occasional big play? I don't.

I think they gave him 96 million to bring a better, more consistent offense to the table. I think Elway hated having to rely on Tebow. I think Elway was willing to overpay to figure out how to get away from Tebow. I think Elway (and Fox) believe that they have a better chance to win a super bowl in the next 5 years with Manning, than they did with Tebow.

But to have that better chance, Manning would have to do more than hit an occasional big play, wouldn't he? I mean, Tebow did that. I'm not saying he's going to throw for 5,000 yards or anything, but I get the sense from your post that you envision him more in an Alex Smith role than a Drew Brees role.

 

[menobrown]

It's some good points here because I don't think we've ever seen a QB be able to deal with more consistency for such a prolonged period of time as we saw with Peyton.

He's never played a snap in the NFL without Tom Moore either directly being his OC or being involved in some capacity with the team. He's always run the same offense.

He's played a minimum of half his games in a controlled weather environment.

His main playmakers (Harrison, Clark, Wayne) have up to this point all been career Colts leaving him with an incredible consistency and familiarity with his major targets.

He's been pretty much injury free until now and while cleared to play we still don't know if he's going to be 100% there.

Remember the year he was hurt and missed a lot of camp time. He was not the same guy to start the year and took him awhile to find his groove and that's with familiarity all around him. Absolutely a guy who thrives on repetition so I'd think the prolonged layoff would impact him more than most.

I assume the Tom Moore loss will be have the least impact simply because Peyton should know this offense so well and in many ways as operated as the OC for the past few years. That being said even a guy like Tom Brady would consult his QB guru from time to time so even those who have done it for years at a high level sometimes need a little extra brainpower in the room with them, especially someone who knows them so well.

The weather, different playmakers, health and time off are however things I'm greatly curious to see how Peyton deals with next years.

 

[Two Deep]

For his sake he better best Tebow of 2011 in regular season and playoff wins.I think he put himself in a bad situation trying to follow the Tebow phenomenon.

 

[yoman]

I was just watching the NFL Network and 76% of the viewing population think the Broncos will win the Super Bowl in the 2012 season. Not can....but WILL. 76%?!?!

All this shows is that people are stupid! I think this is just a case of people getting swept up in the moment - especially since there has been so much hype surrounding the Manning situation.

 

[stbugs]

there are quite a few examples of excellent QBs that have been part of one team their entire careers, moving and having somewhat less than "the usual" success on their new team. Joe Montana's stint with the Chiefs, Favre's numerous non-Packer appearances, are just a few off the top of my head

Joe Montana took a fairly average Chiefs team to the AFC Championship game. Favre had the Jets at 8-3 and looking like the best team in the AFC before blowing out his arm and then took the Vikings to the NFC championship game the next season.Of course this has little to do with what Manning will do with Denver, but your examples don't really back up the point you were trying to make.

To be honest, for their age, I thought Montana and Favre did pretty well. Favre was 12-4 with the Vikings in year 1 and were 3 points away from the Super Bowl. Going to the NFC Championship games with 2 teams that wouldn't have been there without them sort of shows two examples of excellent QBs doing well with their new teams, even after they "got old." Heck, wasn't 2009 with the Vikings one of Favre's best years ever in his first year with a brand new set of WRs?

 

[DoubleG]

For his sake he better best Tebow of 2011 in regular season and playoff wins.I think he put himself in a bad situation trying to follow the Tebow phenomenon.

For the life of me, I still can't wrap my head around why Manning chose Denver over SF. Seems like the 49ers have a decent enough receiving group, a better defense and he wouldn't have to quiet Tebowmaniacs. Honestly, anything short of AFC Championship appearance could be seen as failure - on both Manning and Elway's part.

IF Manning isn't healthy enough to make a difference, and the Broncos launch Tebow, only to have the Broncos finish 6-10 with Manning missing games and such, Elway could be run out of town just as fast as he ran Tebow off.

While gambling on possibly one of the GOAT at the position might seem like a great bet - Manning being 36 and having a severe injury to still recover from could prove to be a huge risk - in many ways.

One thing is for certain, this will be one fascinating football season - on many levels.

 

[Shutout]

4) 2010 season: Statistically Manning had a good 2010 NFL season, but when I watched him play I could tell something was off with him. He didn't look Peyton. People were talking about it in 2010....but everyone was chalking it up to WR inconsistency from numerous injuries and poor O-Line play. This could be true, but I did see Peyton make some horrible un-Manning-esk decisions. I wondered in 2010 if this was the first signs of Peyton's decline. Now 1.5 years later seems like a century ago.

I agree with this point. That said, I think he might be rejuvenated. A season off and a new place could end up being a blessing in disguise for Manning. Perhaps missing the wear and tear and grind of a season will help him?That said, an argument could easily be made that he was in the middle of a decline. I generally look at two stats for quarterbacks: net yards per attempt, which is the best predictive measure of QB efficiency, and adjusted net yards per attempt, which includes TD and INT adjustments. Manning has always been outstanding in these metrics, but he took a nose dive in '08 and '10:

Year NFL NY/A NFL ANY/A PM NY/A PM ANY/A NY/A Ratio ANY/A Ratio2010 6.2 5.7 6.6 6.5 108% 113%2009 6.2 5.6 7.6 7.5 124% 133%2008 6.2 5.7 6.9 6.9 112% 121%2007 6.0 5.5 7.3 7.3 121% 132%2006 6.0 5.4 7.5 7.9 126% 147%2005 5.9 5.3 7.8 8.0 132% 150%2004 6.1 5.6 8.7 9.8 142% 174%2003 5.8 5.2 7.1 7.3 122% 141%2002 5.9 5.3 6.6 6.1 112% 114%2001 5.9 5.2 6.8 5.9 115% 113%2000 5.8 5.2 7.2 7.2 124% 139%1999 5.8 5.2 7.3 7.1 126% 136%1998 5.9 5.3 6.1 4.8 103% 91%In 2010, he was better than league average but far from the Peyton Manning we've come to expect. Even putting aside his monster 2004, he was generally about 25% better than average from '05 to '07 in NY/A and his TD/INT numbers were fantastic. In '08, he slipped from super elite to very good, and his performance in 2010 was his worst since the beginning of the decade.Manning won the MVP, of course, in 2008, but it was an award that many (myself included) thought was undeserved. He basically won it for a lot of game winning drives and a hot streak in the second half of the season. But Manning has never been about being great in spurts, he was always about just being great. To me, the decline started in '08. In 2009 he was excellent, although again I thought his MVP probably should have gone to Rivers or Brees. But in 2010, he flat out regressed. He averaged just 10.4 yards per completion, the fewest of his career. It would not be absurd to assume a career path where he started to regress in '08 from his GOAT levels to excellent, to then merely very good in 2010, to just above average in 2012. At 36, that's not an outlandish prediction.

OTOH, perhaps his neck was really causing him issues in 2010. His arm strength may have been sapped, which explains the low YPC numbers. It's just as easy to assume a 2012 Manning is fresher than the 2010 version, and will be back to his usual 20% above average in NY/A. But I think it's silly to not at least acknowledge there was a decline (from an admittedly absurd peak) going on the last three years of his career in Indy, and wonder where that puts him two years from that point. One could paint the picture (choosing end points liberally) that from ages 23 to 26 he was 19% above average in NY/A and 26% above average in ANY/A; from 27 to 31 he was 29% above average in NY/A and 49% above average in ANY/A; then from 32 to 34 he was only 15% and 22% above average in NY/A and ANY/A. Where does that leave him at age 36? Maybe 8% and 12%? Maybe even closer to average? On a new team with new receivers, who knows?

But it's Peyton Manning. I'll be incredibly hesitant to bet against him. The wheels will come off (or he'll retire) at some point, but I'd rather get burned betting on Peyton Manning than betting against him.

I think you can chalk up some of the recent regression to the o-line's worsening play, Reggie Wayne slowing down considerably, Clark's injuries, Collie's injuries, Garcon's inconsistency, the disappearance of the run game, to name just a few things.

What's the phrase I'm looking for? Ahh, yes...CHILD, PLEASE! The 2010 year was an abbaration of injuries. Any team would have struggled mightily. It was actually more of a statement FOR Manning that they succeeded DESPITE all other things. It wasn't Manning. and It certainly wasn't Wayne "slowing down". Please look at something more than just an age before you make a statement like that. Really, i don't know how you guys don't remember the facts better.Look at these facts:

The Colts ended 2010 10-7 with a total of 55 different names on the injury report throughout the season, 21 of which were on injured reserve. 21? That is literally an entire TEAM of starters on IR. Would you struggle?

While injuries decimated the Colts' secondary, with Bob Sanders, Jerraud Powers, Chip Vaughn, Melvin Bullitt and Brandon King all ending the season on injured reserve, the offense was equally as hurt with offensive options Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie all ending 2010 on IR, as well as their running back corps of Joseph Addai, Mike Hart and Donald Brown all banged up throughout the season.

Read more: http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/football/professional/colts/article_13fb121c-efe9-5e87-a41f-bad4d63898c7.html#ixzz1pgQkjcn9

The article I pulled that from for "show and tell" also mentions that 11 of those Manning interceptions were during a brutal 3 game stretch. so, yeah, he played 13 games with 6 interceptions and had a rough month when his team disappeared to injuries in Week 11-13. And he somehow still got them to the playoffs. This yards per attempt stat needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[BeTheMatch]

4) 2010 season: Statistically Manning had a good 2010 NFL season, but when I watched him play I could tell something was off with him. He didn't look Peyton. People were talking about it in 2010....but everyone was chalking it up to WR inconsistency from numerous injuries and poor O-Line play. This could be true, but I did see Peyton make some horrible un-Manning-esk decisions. I wondered in 2010 if this was the first signs of Peyton's decline. Now 1.5 years later seems like a century ago.

I agree with this point. That said, I think he might be rejuvenated. A season off and a new place could end up being a blessing in disguise for Manning. Perhaps missing the wear and tear and grind of a season will help him?That said, an argument could easily be made that he was in the middle of a decline. I generally look at two stats for quarterbacks: net yards per attempt, which is the best predictive measure of QB efficiency, and adjusted net yards per attempt, which includes TD and INT adjustments. Manning has always been outstanding in these metrics, but he took a nose dive in '08 and '10:

Year NFL NY/A NFL ANY/A PM NY/A PM ANY/A NY/A Ratio ANY/A Ratio2010 6.2 5.7 6.6 6.5 108% 113%2009 6.2 5.6 7.6 7.5 124% 133%2008 6.2 5.7 6.9 6.9 112% 121%2007 6.0 5.5 7.3 7.3 121% 132%2006 6.0 5.4 7.5 7.9 126% 147%2005 5.9 5.3 7.8 8.0 132% 150%2004 6.1 5.6 8.7 9.8 142% 174%2003 5.8 5.2 7.1 7.3 122% 141%2002 5.9 5.3 6.6 6.1 112% 114%2001 5.9 5.2 6.8 5.9 115% 113%2000 5.8 5.2 7.2 7.2 124% 139%1999 5.8 5.2 7.3 7.1 126% 136%1998 5.9 5.3 6.1 4.8 103% 91%In 2010, he was better than league average but far from the Peyton Manning we've come to expect. Even putting aside his monster 2004, he was generally about 25% better than average from '05 to '07 in NY/A and his TD/INT numbers were fantastic. In '08, he slipped from super elite to very good, and his performance in 2010 was his worst since the beginning of the decade.Manning won the MVP, of course, in 2008, but it was an award that many (myself included) thought was undeserved. He basically won it for a lot of game winning drives and a hot streak in the second half of the season. But Manning has never been about being great in spurts, he was always about just being great. To me, the decline started in '08. In 2009 he was excellent, although again I thought his MVP probably should have gone to Rivers or Brees. But in 2010, he flat out regressed. He averaged just 10.4 yards per completion, the fewest of his career. It would not be absurd to assume a career path where he started to regress in '08 from his GOAT levels to excellent, to then merely very good in 2010, to just above average in 2012. At 36, that's not an outlandish prediction.

OTOH, perhaps his neck was really causing him issues in 2010. His arm strength may have been sapped, which explains the low YPC numbers. It's just as easy to assume a 2012 Manning is fresher than the 2010 version, and will be back to his usual 20% above average in NY/A. But I think it's silly to not at least acknowledge there was a decline (from an admittedly absurd peak) going on the last three years of his career in Indy, and wonder where that puts him two years from that point. One could paint the picture (choosing end points liberally) that from ages 23 to 26 he was 19% above average in NY/A and 26% above average in ANY/A; from 27 to 31 he was 29% above average in NY/A and 49% above average in ANY/A; then from 32 to 34 he was only 15% and 22% above average in NY/A and ANY/A. Where does that leave him at age 36? Maybe 8% and 12%? Maybe even closer to average? On a new team with new receivers, who knows?

But it's Peyton Manning. I'll be incredibly hesitant to bet against him. The wheels will come off (or he'll retire) at some point, but I'd rather get burned betting on Peyton Manning than betting against him.

I think you can chalk up some of the recent regression to the o-line's worsening play, Reggie Wayne slowing down considerably, Clark's injuries, Collie's injuries, Garcon's inconsistency, the disappearance of the run game, to name just a few things.

What's the phrase I'm looking for? Ahh, yes...CHILD, PLEASE! The 2010 year was an abbaration of injuries. Any team would have struggled mightily. It was actually more of a statement FOR Manning that they succeeded DESPITE all other things. It wasn't Manning. and It certainly wasn't Wayne "slowing down". Please look at something more than just an age before you make a statement like that. Really, i don't know how you guys don't remember the facts better.Look at these facts:

The Colts ended 2010 10-7 with a total of 55 different names on the injury report throughout the season, 21 of which were on injured reserve. 21? That is literally an entire TEAM of starters on IR. Would you struggle?

While injuries decimated the Colts' secondary, with Bob Sanders, Jerraud Powers, Chip Vaughn, Melvin Bullitt and Brandon King all ending the season on injured reserve, the offense was equally as hurt with offensive options Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie all ending 2010 on IR, as well as their running back corps of Joseph Addai, Mike Hart and Donald Brown all banged up throughout the season.

Read more: http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/football/professional/colts/article_13fb121c-efe9-5e87-a41f-bad4d63898c7.html#ixzz1pgQkjcn9

The article I pulled that from for "show and tell" also mentions that 11 of those Manning interceptions were during a brutal 3 game stretch. so, yeah, he played 13 games with 6 interceptions and had a rough month when his team disappeared to injuries in Week 11-13. And he somehow still got them to the playoffs. This yards per attempt stat needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I've seen every snap of every Colts game for the past several years. If you don't think Wayne started to tail off in 2010, I don't think you and I are seeing the same thing, obviously. And I don't know why you're directing your post at me since I was one defending Manning and citing other factors - as you've now done too.

 

[Shutout]

4) 2010 season: Statistically Manning had a good 2010 NFL season, but when I watched him play I could tell something was off with him. He didn't look Peyton. People were talking about it in 2010....but everyone was chalking it up to WR inconsistency from numerous injuries and poor O-Line play. This could be true, but I did see Peyton make some horrible un-Manning-esk decisions. I wondered in 2010 if this was the first signs of Peyton's decline. Now 1.5 years later seems like a century ago.

I agree with this point. That said, I think he might be rejuvenated. A season off and a new place could end up being a blessing in disguise for Manning. Perhaps missing the wear and tear and grind of a season will help him?That said, an argument could easily be made that he was in the middle of a decline. I generally look at two stats for quarterbacks: net yards per attempt, which is the best predictive measure of QB efficiency, and adjusted net yards per attempt, which includes TD and INT adjustments. Manning has always been outstanding in these metrics, but he took a nose dive in '08 and '10:

Year NFL NY/A NFL ANY/A PM NY/A PM ANY/A NY/A Ratio ANY/A Ratio2010 6.2 5.7 6.6 6.5 108% 113%2009 6.2 5.6 7.6 7.5 124% 133%2008 6.2 5.7 6.9 6.9 112% 121%2007 6.0 5.5 7.3 7.3 121% 132%2006 6.0 5.4 7.5 7.9 126% 147%2005 5.9 5.3 7.8 8.0 132% 150%2004 6.1 5.6 8.7 9.8 142% 174%2003 5.8 5.2 7.1 7.3 122% 141%2002 5.9 5.3 6.6 6.1 112% 114%2001 5.9 5.2 6.8 5.9 115% 113%2000 5.8 5.2 7.2 7.2 124% 139%1999 5.8 5.2 7.3 7.1 126% 136%1998 5.9 5.3 6.1 4.8 103% 91%In 2010, he was better than league average but far from the Peyton Manning we've come to expect. Even putting aside his monster 2004, he was generally about 25% better than average from '05 to '07 in NY/A and his TD/INT numbers were fantastic. In '08, he slipped from super elite to very good, and his performance in 2010 was his worst since the beginning of the decade.Manning won the MVP, of course, in 2008, but it was an award that many (myself included) thought was undeserved. He basically won it for a lot of game winning drives and a hot streak in the second half of the season. But Manning has never been about being great in spurts, he was always about just being great. To me, the decline started in '08. In 2009 he was excellent, although again I thought his MVP probably should have gone to Rivers or Brees. But in 2010, he flat out regressed. He averaged just 10.4 yards per completion, the fewest of his career. It would not be absurd to assume a career path where he started to regress in '08 from his GOAT levels to excellent, to then merely very good in 2010, to just above average in 2012. At 36, that's not an outlandish prediction.

OTOH, perhaps his neck was really causing him issues in 2010. His arm strength may have been sapped, which explains the low YPC numbers. It's just as easy to assume a 2012 Manning is fresher than the 2010 version, and will be back to his usual 20% above average in NY/A. But I think it's silly to not at least acknowledge there was a decline (from an admittedly absurd peak) going on the last three years of his career in Indy, and wonder where that puts him two years from that point. One could paint the picture (choosing end points liberally) that from ages 23 to 26 he was 19% above average in NY/A and 26% above average in ANY/A; from 27 to 31 he was 29% above average in NY/A and 49% above average in ANY/A; then from 32 to 34 he was only 15% and 22% above average in NY/A and ANY/A. Where does that leave him at age 36? Maybe 8% and 12%? Maybe even closer to average? On a new team with new receivers, who knows?

But it's Peyton Manning. I'll be incredibly hesitant to bet against him. The wheels will come off (or he'll retire) at some point, but I'd rather get burned betting on Peyton Manning than betting against him.

I think you can chalk up some of the recent regression to the o-line's worsening play, Reggie Wayne slowing down considerably, Clark's injuries, Collie's injuries, Garcon's inconsistency, the disappearance of the run game, to name just a few things.

What's the phrase I'm looking for? Ahh, yes...CHILD, PLEASE! The 2010 year was an abbaration of injuries. Any team would have struggled mightily. It was actually more of a statement FOR Manning that they succeeded DESPITE all other things. It wasn't Manning. and It certainly wasn't Wayne "slowing down". Please look at something more than just an age before you make a statement like that. Really, i don't know how you guys don't remember the facts better.Look at these facts:

The Colts ended 2010 10-7 with a total of 55 different names on the injury report throughout the season, 21 of which were on injured reserve. 21? That is literally an entire TEAM of starters on IR. Would you struggle?

While injuries decimated the Colts' secondary, with Bob Sanders, Jerraud Powers, Chip Vaughn, Melvin Bullitt and Brandon King all ending the season on injured reserve, the offense was equally as hurt with offensive options Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie all ending 2010 on IR, as well as their running back corps of Joseph Addai, Mike Hart and Donald Brown all banged up throughout the season.

Read more: http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/football/professional/colts/article_13fb121c-efe9-5e87-a41f-bad4d63898c7.html#ixzz1pgQkjcn9

The article I pulled that from for "show and tell" also mentions that 11 of those Manning interceptions were during a brutal 3 game stretch. so, yeah, he played 13 games with 6 interceptions and had a rough month when his team disappeared to injuries in Week 11-13. And he somehow still got them to the playoffs. This yards per attempt stat needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I've seen every snap of every Colts game for the past several years. If you don't think Wayne started to tail off in 2010, I don't think you and I are seeing the same thing, obviously. And I don't know why you're directing your post at me since I was one defending Manning and citing other factors - as you've now done too.

Not directed at you. Is in response to the post about Wayne slowing down and the conversation, in general, above your post. Clearly we disagree on Reggie Wayne and "slowing down" and there likely is no reasoning that because if you have truly watched EVERY snap for several years then I don't know how you don't understand the Colts well enough to know that there is such a level of interdependency going on at all times on that entire team (not just offense, but defense as well), that what you see in a stat, what you see in a series, or on a particular play is directly linked.

Again, we will simply disagree on the matter (and that is fine), but when you talk about the incredibly unique makeup of the Colts, it is almost impossible to finger point to any individual and say it was him or it wasn't him, and I think that was clearly illustrated with Manning's absence in 2011. That team melted down without him. In 2010, the TONS of injuries caused everything to be different. This couldn't be the team that got on top of you and then unleashed the speedy dobermans on you. They couldn't be the team that held up against a pass for 2.3 seconds because they suddenly had to be the team that held up against the pass for 3.5 seconds. And they were not built to do that. So the defense suffered. Which in turn resulted in the offense suffering. Addai wasn't there to block...and neither were his backups. clark wasn't there to take advantage of his space on the field...and neither were any of the slot guys. Routes had to be re-adjusted, which was a 180 from how this team used to be such a precision team. It was one giant bad snowball effect. how can you possibly examine that team in 2010 and compare it to other years and pinpoint a finger and say "well, obviously Reggie wayne is slowing down"?

was he more hesitant at times, or did the pass have to come out quicker due to necessity at times, or was he actually in a different position at times and it didn't look the same as 2004-2009? Sure. But it was all linked in to the masses of things going on. You didn't look at Wayne and say "he obviously can't run a route as precise as he used to". You didn't look at him and say "he can't catch anymore." You didn't look at him and say he runs slower (well, you shouldn't have, because that is almost impossible to know because of all the things mentioned above...entirely situational.

And it is in the eye of the beholder, for sure, but I can tell you from watching many many years of football, that there are times when you watch a torry Holt and say "man, he shouldn't have come back" or you watch an eddie george or Jamal Lewis and say "the burst is gone. The power or agility is gone." You can't look at reggie wayne and say those things with definition.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

I was just watching the NFL Network and 76% of the viewing population think the Broncos will win the Super Bowl in the 2012 season. Not can....but WILL. 76%?!?!

All this shows is that people are stupid! I think this is just a case of people getting swept up in the moment - especially since there has been so much hype surrounding the Manning situation.

Agreed! Just stupid! LOL. I'd put the Bronco's chances of winning the Super Bowl for 2012 at 5-10% with a healthy Peyton Manning. The Patriots, Ravens, and Texans all have better teams at the moment. The Steelers will be tough as well if they can stay healthy. I'd put their chances, IF Peyton is healthy, of 15-20% of making the Super Bowl and then a 50-50 shot at winning it.

 

[Tau837]

What's the phrase I'm looking for? Ahh, yes...CHILD, PLEASE! The 2010 year was an abbaration of injuries. Any team would have struggled mightily. It was actually more of a statement FOR Manning that they succeeded DESPITE all other things. It wasn't Manning. and It certainly wasn't Wayne "slowing down". Please look at something more than just an age before you make a statement like that. Really, i don't know how you guys don't remember the facts better.

Look at these facts:

The Colts ended 2010 10-7 with a total of 55 different names on the injury report throughout the season, 21 of which were on injured reserve. 21? That is literally an entire TEAM of starters on IR. Would you struggle?

While injuries decimated the Colts' secondary, with Bob Sanders, Jerraud Powers, Chip Vaughn, Melvin Bullitt and Brandon King all ending the season on injured reserve, the offense was equally as hurt with offensive options Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie all ending 2010 on IR, as well as their running back corps of Joseph Addai, Mike Hart and Donald Brown all banged up throughout the season.

Read more: http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/football/professional/colts/article_13fb121c-efe9-5e87-a41f-bad4d63898c7.html#ixzz1pgQkjcn9

The article I pulled that from for "show and tell" also mentions that 11 of those Manning interceptions were during a brutal 3 game stretch. so, yeah, he played 13 games with 6 interceptions and had a rough month when his team disappeared to injuries in Week 11-13. And he somehow still got them to the playoffs. This yards per attempt stat needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Counter example to this is the Chargers in the same season. In 2010, the Chargers used an NFL-record tying 74 players due to injuries. The Chargers offensive skill players missed more games than Manning's did, yet Rivers led the NFL in passing yards and threw 30 TDs.

 

[Obie Wan]

Somewhere in the forum a long time ago I had a post giving my wife's take on this (she works in this area on the rehab side). Summary: She said in 2010 before there was so much info on this that something was wrong. After the info came out, using all her big long words and such, she basically said he will never be the same again. so, i'll stand by her and agree on your side on this one.I hope we are all wrong because its been a real treat over the years but I agree in thinking it is likely that we will not see what we saw before. Of course, Peyton at a reduced capacity might still be better than the majority of the league but I don't expect elite performance.

I still believe that this was a big money grab and Manning may not play a single snapElway spent $20 mil to give cover to ditch Tebow and to tank 2012 to get Barkley next year.no other way he was going to be able to move Tebow and not incite a fan riot

 

[BeTheMatch]

Somewhere in the forum a long time ago I had a post giving my wife's take on this (she works in this area on the rehab side). Summary: She said in 2010 before there was so much info on this that something was wrong. After the info came out, using all her big long words and such, she basically said he will never be the same again. so, i'll stand by her and agree on your side on this one.I hope we are all wrong because its been a real treat over the years but I agree in thinking it is likely that we will not see what we saw before. Of course, Peyton at a reduced capacity might still be better than the majority of the league but I don't expect elite performance.

I still believe that this was a big money grab and Manning may not play a single snapElway spent $20 mil to give cover to ditch Tebow and to tank 2012 to get Barkley next year.no other way he was going to be able to move Tebow and not incite a fan riot

Awesome post. Just awesome.

 

[az_prof]

He will have some good games, but he will get hurt and that will be it. Neck surgeries are nothing to fool around with.

 

[Riversco]

One thing that COULD happen, and has happened to many athletes in the past, is that Manning changes his delivery, throwing motion, or footwork, or something else, subconsciously to compensate for the injury, and it causes a NEW injury in a completely different part of the body. He might all of a sudden come down with a bad case of elbow tendinitis late in the season and it affects his play.

 

[fatness]

Is there a chance he doesn't get his throwing power back because of the nerve injury?

I'm fairly certainly he doesn't have it yet, that it's a matter of nerves regenerating if they ever do. I think there's a significant chance he doesn't get it back.

 

[Couch Potato]

One thing that COULD happen, and has happened to many athletes in the past, is that Manning changes his delivery, throwing motion, or footwork, or something else, subconsciously to compensate for the injury, and it causes...

... an exact replica of Tim Tebow!!

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I guess my main question with Manning is what does "cleared to play" really mean in this case? Having neck surgery and being "cleared to play" in some other sport may be one thing, but having neck surgery and being cleared to play football is another. I doubt the testing process of clearing him to play included taking blind side whiplash inducing hits in the back from a 260 pound linebacker at full speed. How do you really test for that?

After signing a contract that makes him the highest paid player in the league, he ain't gonna get any sympathy from anybody after kick off. Part of me thinks this could end up being a trainwreck for the Broncos as they currently admittedly have no "plan B" and the contract is even structured to factor in that the neck could cause some problems.

He is going to be dancing around in the pocket all summer looking like a world beater as there will probably be a 10 foot "no entry zone" around him. Then he will probably only play about 1 quarter in any preseason game because after all he is Peyton Manning and Peyton Manning don't need no preseason action.

Fantasy wise:

When the puck drops in September and he starts getting smacked around (even though the NFL and the officials will probably still like to have that "no entry zone" in place) I will start paying attention fantasy wise. If I miss out on Manning and his stats this year, so be it. Where you will have to take him in most leagues after a summer of not getting touched and not having played in almost 2 years makes the price a little too high for the risk IMO.

Overall: I think the people that are handing Denver the Super Bowl are very misguided. It is very hard to win the Super Bowl and Denver isn't that good of a team with or without Peyton. Denver will be playing a very tough first place schedule this year. Realistically, anything but Super Bowls will be a disappointment considering the contract.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

I guess my main question with Manning is what does "cleared to play" really mean in this case? Having neck surgery and being "cleared to play" in some other sport may be one thing, but having neck surgery and being cleared to play football is another. I doubt the testing process of clearing him to play included taking blind side whiplash inducing hits in the back from a 260 pound linebacker at full speed. How do you really test for that? ...

FWIW, Linemen have played for years in the league after having the same procedure Manning had and take substantially more physical punishment than he will. The specific level where he had the surgery is stronger now than it was pre-injury since it is solid bone and titanium with no disk to affect the nerves there. The question is to what extent there is damage and future stress on the surrounding levels, and teams can tell how healthy they are from the MRIs. His risk of injury is higher, but if there is no current degeneration in those disks it's probably not more than 5-10% more than any other player. The bigger question is probably how much strength he regains in his arm from the originally damaged nerves.