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Chances Zeke gets some rest week 16? (1 Viewer)

Doug Martin went 16 for 33 in his first game back. Not sure that proves your point.

 
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Weebs210 said:
Doug Martin went 16 for 33 in his first game back. Not sure that proves your point.
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Go back to that thread and read the countless people just champing at the bit to put him in their lineups the minute he returned

Point to make: He wasn't tearing up the league before his injury... pretty much par for the course this entire season. But I guess he was "rusty" since week 1 right? 

 
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Willie Neslon said:
Dallas wants to win this game. It's at home like the two playoff games they need to win if they're going to the superbowl. Garrett has already alluded to wanted to keep the momentum going. I believe if you have guys going full throttle trying to win and not thinking about reps or when they'll be pulled they have less of a chance of injury. Dak and Zeke's focus need to be on winning the game, not on impressing in limited duty. If it's a 3 td game in the 4th then you think about sitting guys. If the game is anywhere near close you play to win and that means playing your starters. You don't want these guys last thought heading into the playoffs to be they took their foot off the gas and lost, you want them thinking everything is clicking and feeling unstoppable. Romo is a veteran and an all-pro, if called upon at some point he'll be ready. That's why he goes to meetings and practices. He doesn't need to play a half to be fresh for a game weeks in the future that he'll likely never play in anyway. In terms of the team and winning, these reps in these next two games hold far more value when Dak gets them than if/when Romo does.
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I mentioned it in this thread somewhere (before the NYG/PHI game), but with Dallas having clinched, it's reasonable (IMO) to expect Zeke (& other Dallas stars) to see around 80% of their normal workload in week 16, probably less in week 17.  They likely won't sit them completely, because they will want them to see some live competition between now and the 2nd round of the playoffs (& that won't happen in practices).  With Zeke/Dez/Witten this is much more practical.  Give McFadden/Morris an extra series here or there, let Dez take a few more plays off than he normally does, let the back-up TEs handle more of the duties, etc.  With Dak, it's harder to do, as they aren't going to give Romo a series here & there; if he comes in, he'll stay in.

As to the bolded, that's the key, IMO.  If Dallas is up/down 14-21 points in the 3rd quarter, I would think these guys would be less likely to be in (where if the game mattered, they would definitely be in).  So, if Zeke is giving up an extra series here and there for the first 2.5 quarters, getting about 80% of his "normal" touches, then he sits for the last 15-20 minutes of the game, his workload drops to maybe 70-75%. 

But we don't know, and unless you have another top-10 RB that is sitting on your bench, I don't see how you can sit Zeke in your championship game.  Even if Zeke only gets 70% of his normal work, that's better than 100% of Bilal Powell, IMO.

 
Weebs210 said:
Doug Martin went 16 for 33 in his first game back. Not sure that proves your point.
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Not sure you understood his point.

His point wasn't that Martin came back and lit it up, his point was that Martin owners (I'm one of them) didn't say "he's been off for a while, he'll be rusty."

 
Weebs210 said:
My opponent is starting him this week. Yes I would play him but I would also be nervous he re-aggrevates his foot or gets limited snaps.
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So you would risk your fantasy championship on a guy who just sat out of everything for 2 weeks with an injury that can end/shorten an athlete's career. But you would be seriously concerned about a player who is 100% healthy resting out of games but practicing fully for 2-3 weeks? 

 
Weebs210 said:
Right, but clearly there was rust has he avg 0.5 yds a carry his first game back. 
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Uh, 16 for 33 isn't .5 yds/carry.

And, that isn't "clearly" rust, as he hasn't gotten much better, nor have any of the other RBs in TB done much better.  This "rust" you speak of would more likely be described as poor offensive line play by TB.

 
Dr. Brew said:
So you would risk your fantasy championship on a guy who just sat out of everything for 2 weeks with an injury that can end/shorten an athlete's career. But you would be seriously concerned about a player who is 100% healthy resting out of games but practicing fully for 2-3 weeks? 
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Yes I did the math backwards (oops). But we keep talking about fantasy and real life. Not sure those have anything to do with each other.

 
Weebs210 said:
Yes I did the math backwards (oops). But we keep talking about fantasy and real life. Not sure those have anything to do with each other.
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Sure they do. If Julio has "rust" he won't do as well statistically, therefore he is not a good fantasy option. Unless you're telling me your fantasy league doesn't go by statistics? 

So, if you are in fantasy football, why would you start someone you would be worried would have "rust?" The only reason being, you don't think they will have "rust" therefore there is little worry Zeke sitting 2-3 weeks fully healthy would result in "rust" which would result in a poor statistical game for him when Dallas plays round 2. If Zeke has "rust" he doesn't run well. He doesn't run well he doesn't put up good stats. Zeke doesn't put up good stats Dallas likely doesn't do as well. 

 
Dr. Brew said:
Sure they do. If Julio has "rust" he won't do as well statistically, therefore he is not a good fantasy option. Unless you're telling me your fantasy league doesn't go by statistics? 

So, if you are in fantasy football, why would you start someone you would be worried would have "rust?" The only reason being, you don't think they will have "rust" therefore there is little worry Zeke sitting 2-3 weeks fully healthy would result in "rust" which would result in a poor statistical game for him when Dallas plays round 2. If Zeke has "rust" he doesn't run well. He doesn't run well he doesn't put up good stats. Zeke doesn't put up good stats Dallas likely doesn't do as well. 
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The way I make decisions about my fantasy line up has no bearing whatsoever on how JJ and Jason feel about how much playing time to give starters this week. Different coaches would approach this week differently with the division locked up. I think the cowboys will play Zeke for 3 1/2 quarters. And the main reason I would play Julio this week is because if I lost with him blowing up on my bench I would be depressed as hell.

 
Weebs210 said:
The way I make decisions about my fantasy line up has no bearing whatsoever on how JJ and Jason feel about how much playing time to give starters this week. Different coaches would approach this week differently with the division locked up. I think the cowboys will play Zeke for 3 1/2 quarters. And the main reason I would play Julio this week is because if I lost with him blowing up on my bench I would be depressed as hell.
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I understand that. That's not the point I'm trying to make. I'm not making it very well... sounds better in my head. That's a frequent problem for me, but at least I don't sound like Dismattle 

You're going to play players on your fantasy team that you think will get you the most points. If there is rust, like let's say Doug Martin, you would probably want to bench them for a game or two to let them work that off and get back into the swing of things. 

That's the point you are trying to make with resting Zeke for the next 2-3 weeks. Your argument, if I understand correctly, is that if Dallas rests Zeke, he will be rusty come playoff time when they need him at his best. 

To counter that point, I am saying that if you think resting for 2 weeks equals rust, which equals poor statistics/performance, then why would you play Julio on your fantasy team this week? Shouldn't you and ATL expect there to be rust? sure, there's upside there. There was upside when Martin came back from his injury. But even as you said, clearly he didn't run very well. 

I can't see how we can look at someone resting for 2-3 weeks when healthy as a high risk of being "rusty" but not look at someone HURT coming back after 2-3 weeks as "rusty" and shy away from starting him on our fantasy teams... Kind of a crazy bizarro-world double standard. My ultimate point in all of this is if your rest Zeke in the games, it's not like you're preventing him from running, working out, practicing, etc. He isn't just sitting on his couch eating cheetos for the next 2-3 weeks. He is active like everyone else just not competing in live action on Sundays, which is the biggest risk for injury. 

FWIW, I don't believe in "rust" at all. If a player is playing, he's ready to play. He's had time at practice to work off whatever "rust" he has and chances are he's been practicing at least limited or in rehab the entire time he's been hurt. So it's not like Sunday was the first time he put his cleats on since he last played a game. 

 
kyoun1e said:
I could see Zeke seeing a few less touches in the 4th quarter, but that's about it. Even if he does get a few less touches he could still go for 100-2 in the first 3 quarters.

This team is being led by a ROOKIE QB and a ROOKIE RB. These are not veteran players who necessarily know how to flick the switch back on after flicking it off. 

The rushing record is a factor as well.

I see minimal risk here. Anyone who has rode Zeke all year and is now benching is a fool.
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Well its a combination of headwinds. Its not just that he gets a lighter load, but he is also facing DET D which is good vs RBs this year. Zeke only put up 10 points vs a similar D when they faced the NYG. I don't buy the argument that these are rookies so need the work. I mean they are basically 2 games away from being 1 yr vets and are both comfortable in the offsene. I don't think playing Zeke 25 touches vs 15 touches is going to make a difference or play as a factor in their decision to sit him late in the game. If anything they will be likely to get McFadden more snaps to get him into game shape by the playoffs than to play Zeke for more "experience".

Risks:

1. DET D

2. Zeke might get 70-80% of normal workload.

3. Zeke gets a minor ding that would otherwise not put him out of the game ... this week he will sit.

4. The game could be wrapped up by the end of the 3rd quarter vs DET. I can see a score of 28-6 by the end of Q3.

5. They want to get McFadden some work, and up to speed in this offese.

None of these risks by themselves are enough to consider sitting Zeke, maybe a 5mp headwind at best, but put them all together and you have fairly strong 25mph headwind. To give an idea of my decision making process ... I am considering starting Howard vs WAS D instead of Zeke vs DET to pair with McCoy who is a no brainer start imo. (which means McCoy will crap the bed)

ETA: For ref, I would start Zeke over my other option in at the level of D. Lewis, K. Dixon, T. Rawls ... so not going cray here, and also grant you that if Cowboys are up 28-6 in the 3rd Q Zeke could very well have multiple TDs by then. hmm maybe I will start Zeke, but its less than ideal situation this week.

 
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I get what you are saying. Granted Julio on the field helps the team even if he is "rusty". All I'm saying is different coaches are going to have different philosophies on what to do in this situation. Some would rest their skill positions others may fear " rust" or timing issues. Based on past actions from the cowboys in a similar situation I believe Zeke will get 80-85% of his usual work load this week and probably closer to 50% next week. 

Will be an interesting Monday night to say the least. I am going to start Zeke over Ware this week. And yes I agree with MNM (what?!?!) one ding and he's done for the night.

 
Weebs210 said:
Actually I've been flying for fifteen years so....awkward...
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Wait does this guy ever post on topic or just pick meaningless fights to satisfy his online fantasy alpha male syndrome? I guess I should just be glad he finally forgot about me. Good luck WheelsUp! You just found a fantasy pilot "expert" to tangle with!

 
OK, so for the pessimistic people in the room who don't think Zeke will get enough carries to warrant even a spot start (what's up fellow Negative Nellies?), can someone explain why McFadden after nearly missing the entire season is considered the primary backup vs. Alfred Morris who has starter experience and has served as Zeke's #2 all season?

 
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Weebs210 said:
I get what you are saying. Granted Julio on the field helps the team even if he is "rusty". All I'm saying is different coaches are going to have different philosophies on what to do in this situation. Some would rest their skill positions others may fear " rust" or timing issues. Based on past actions from the cowboys in a similar situation I believe Zeke will get 80-85% of his usual work load this week and probably closer to 50% next week. 

Will be an interesting Monday night to say the least. I am going to start Zeke over Ware this week. And yes I agree with MNM (what?!?!) one ding and he's done for the night.
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yeah I would agree with his predicted work load. 

if it were me I'd bench him but I'm not making millions as a coach. as a gb fan I hope he does well and they smoke det

 
I suspect Zeke will play both of the next two weeks, but on a limited basis. Maybe split time more than usual during Q1-3 and sit out Q4. Keeps him seasoned, reduces injury risk and gives DMC some much needed playing time heading into the postseason. And all of that can jive with Garrett's intention to win the next two games.

I'd say this same dynamic applies to Dez, but less so to Dak, who plays a position with less injury risk and more need to remain sharp and well timed.

 
Here's something else to ponder: does Dwayne Washington hold any value going against a Dallas defense that also might be holding back for the playoffs?

 
Was just watching NFL live. Jason Garret sounded like he was playing his starters full go. Said the same type of stuff he said in 2014 week 17 when Murray had 100 yds and a TD with a broken hand.

 
Garrett plays them all, Zeke rolls his ankle while landing the perfect hurdle for a meaningless 7 yard gain, Dak gets blown up on the next play on his throwing shoulder, then Garrett says in the press conference that "it was the right call".

 
Weebs210 said:
Was just watching NFL live. Jason Garret sounded like he was playing his starters full go. Said the same type of stuff he said in 2014 week 17 when Murray had 100 yds and a TD with a broken hand.
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Jerry Jones just said the same thing.

2014 all over again.

Fire up Zeke.

 
Owner/GM Jerry Jones reiterated Friday that the Cowboys won't be resting any starters in Week 16 against the Lions.
The Cowboys have clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but Jones says he has learned from past experiences resting players and didn't like the results. "I know that in our (2007) season here with Wade Phillips, we had a great season and then we turned around and got into the playoffs and rested pretty good the last ballgame. And we ended up losing the first playoff game that we had with home-field bye all the way through," said Jones. "That's going to bear heavily our experience there with Wade in '07 will weigh heavily on any thoughts I have about who plays." Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, and Dez Bryant are all safe to use in fantasy title week.

 
 
Source: Dallas Morning News
Dec 23 - 2:58 PM

 
GiantsRule said:
Here's something else to ponder: does Dwayne Washington hold any value going against a Dallas defense that also might be holding back for the playoffs?
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This is wrong on so many levels ... Wrong thread, Wrong forum. Wrong player. :no:  

You hit the trifecta of three pigeon turds in one post! :cstu:

Now to answer your question in the spirit of peace on earth goodwill towards man, tis the season. Washington holds the same value he has had all season long. None. :deadhorse:

Now I could be proven wrong this week on Swaggy, but it would be the first time this year. :grad:

 
You guys posting all that evidence that Jerry and the coaches have played all their guys in similar situations in previous years ... Thanks. Good posts.

 
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Anyone else think Zeke is going to break E.D. rookie record tommorow .. 30 touches should just about do it.. how many rushing yards is he ahead from the next closest RB for the league leader 

 
Dr. Brew said:
FWIW, I don't believe in "rust" at all. If a player is playing, he's ready to play. He's had time at practice to work off whatever "rust" he has and chances are he's been practicing at least limited or in rehab the entire time he's been hurt. So it's not like Sunday was the first time he put his cleats on since he last played a game. 
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Game reps are significantly more different than practice reps.  Especially this time of year.

These guys are not mid 30s Peyton Manning.  Every game is valuable learning experience for them.

 
Gotta say at this point it's silly to even debate. JJ came out and said they wouldn't rest starters. Nobody in their right mind is benching Zeke so that's that. 

 
oswizzle said:
Anyone else think Zeke is going to break E.D. rookie record tommorow .. 30 touches should just about do it.. how many rushing yards is he ahead from the next closest RB for the league leader 
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I am 100% positive he won't break the record tomorrow.

 
Like most threads, this entire conversation is speculative.  All the chatroom doctors and pilots in the world can't predict Zeke's propensity to get hurt in Week 16.  No one really knows how many quarters Zeke will play against Detroit.  I'm not even sure the coaches know at this point.  What I do know is... if you're in the finals and you're following this thread, Zeke is probably the main reason you made it.  Dude has been an absolute beast this year and a blast to watch.   If they pull him early and he ends his day with 70 yards and 2 or 3 catches, I can live with it.  What I couldn't stomach is leaving him on my bench in the League Championship and watching him go for 100 yards and 2 scores at halftime, while I got Terrence West in his place playing a whole game and finishing with 27 yards.

 
Tong Po said:
Like most threads, this entire conversation is speculative.  All the chatroom doctors and pilots in the world can't predict Zeke's propensity to get hurt in Week 16.  No one really knows how many quarters Zeke will play against Detroit.  I'm not even sure the coaches know at this point.  What I do know is... if you're in the finals and you're following this thread, Zeke is probably the main reason you made it.  Dude has been an absolute beast this year and a blast to watch.   If they pull him early and he ends his day with 70 yards and 2 or 3 catches, I can live with it.  What I couldn't stomach is leaving him on my bench in the League Championship and watching him go for 100 yards and 2 scores at halftime, while I got Terrence West in his place playing a whole game and finishing with 27 yards.
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I agree his ceiling is 70 yards, not bad for week 16

 
mnmplayer said:
This is wrong on so many levels ... Wrong thread, Wrong forum. Wrong player. :no:  

You hit the trifecta of three pigeon turds in one post! :cstu:

Now to answer your question in the spirit of peace on earth goodwill towards man, tis the season. Washington holds the same value he has had all season long. None. :deadhorse:

Now I could be proven wrong this week on Swaggy, but it would be the first time this year. :grad:
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I'm sorry. I was simply trying to provide a scenario for anybody left with only Monday night options.

 
If anything, Zeke will get fed even more than usual this week. More than 30 carries is my prediction. They don't need to win so they can just get him as many rushing yards as possible this week to make the rushing record more reachable next week.

I know it sounds illogical with the possibility of injury and all, but the positive benefits of making Zeke as happy as possible in Dallas trumps injury concerns. Bank on it.

 
Yardage said:
If anything, Zeke will get fed even more than usual this week. More than 30 carries is my prediction. They don't need to win so they can just get him as many rushing yards as possible this week to make the rushing record more reachable next week.

I know it sounds illogical with the possibility of injury and all, but the positive benefits of making Zeke as happy as possible in Dallas trumps injury concerns. Bank on it.
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I pray you are right!

 
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