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***Chargers at DaRaiders*** (+3) 48.5u (1 Viewer)

Three's Company for the win
I remember watching that show as a kid and thinking I wanted to hear a character say, "The last 37 times I overheard something and made an assumption, it turned out to be wrong, so maybe this time I'll clarify."

(And yes, I was exactly that kind of kid. It also bothered me that cartoon characters would get their faces blown off and then be fine in the next scene.)

 
This exactly. And it’s all predicated on getting that 1st down.

If they didn’t get it, ok sure fine maybe they let the clock wind. 

But once they got the 1st down, there is zero question they were going to kick the FG. 

Either way, they weren’t in victory formation, about to take a knee when the Chargers called the TO, so people suggesting the TO changed that decision are delusional.
This.  The timeout was still stupid though.  Raiders were lining up in shotgun for a handoff draw up the middle.  they were burning clock.  Look at the last two runs previously, It's not like they were rushing to preserve clock to try and win the game.  If Staley just let's them run that (tired) play, maybe they still get a huge chunk, who knows?  But I would have rather had them run that play then give them time to rest Jacobs, and draw up a power run with the TE pulling.

The Raiders were content with the tie until Jacobs busts off that 10 yarder.  And the timeout allowed them time to draw up a play to try and make it happen.

 
and for Staley to pull a LB for a DB.

ya know, bc he wanted the right personnel package to stop the run (actual actual quote.)
Saw that.  Staley should be canned. So much bone head all year long.  I mean, you could go out and get Flores right now.  His relationship with Herbert will save him though.  For one more year anyway.

 
The Raiders were content with the tie until Jacobs busts off that 10 yarder.  And the timeout allowed them time to draw up a play to try and make it happen.
honestly the more I think about it, and the more I talk with my Raiders fan friends (several of whom were at the game) the less convinced I am that they were content with a tie.

I’d be willing to bet that if they didn’t get that 1st down, they let Carlson try the 50+ FG anyway. 

Yes, there’s a minute risk of something bad happening. But compared to having the choice of playing the Bengals or the Chiefs, it’s an easy call to try the FG & thus try not to face a divisional rival team that already blew you out twice, while also allowing another divisional rival into the playoffs.

Raiders don’t GAF if the Steelers make it. But those other two things? Yeah - Carlson is money. IMO They try the FG either way. 

 
honestly the more I think about it, and the more I talk with my Raiders fan friends (several of whom were at the game) the less convinced I am that they were content with a tie.

I’d be willing to bet that if they didn’t get that 1st down, they let Carlson try the 50+ FG anyway. 

Yes, there’s a minute risk of something bad happening. But compared to having the choice of playing the Bengals or the Chiefs, it’s an easy call to try the FG & thus try not to face a divisional rival team that already blew you out twice, while also allowing another divisional rival into the playoffs.

Raiders don’t GAF if the Steelers make it. But those other two things? Yeah - Carlson is money. IMO They try the FG either way. 
They may have let him try and kick a 50ish yarder.  I doubt a 57 yarder (assuming no gain on the 3rd down carry).  But I cannot be convinced they were really "trying" to win the game.  Just watch the 1st and 2nd down runs.  No urgency whatsoever.  If you're trying to win the game you are getting to the line of scrimmage a lot quicker than that and trying to get your kicker at least inside a 45 yarder.

 
They may have let him try and kick a 50ish yarder.  I doubt a 57 yarder (assuming no gain on the 3rd down carry).  But I cannot be convinced they were really "trying" to win the game.  Just watch the 1st and 2nd down runs.  No urgency whatsoever.  If you're trying to win the game you are getting to the line of scrimmage a lot quicker than that and trying to get your kicker at least inside a 45 yarder.
Agreed not a 57 yarder, but I do think they were trying to win the game. 

I think the Chargers stacked the box - Jacobs was certainly running hard, he just ran into a wall.  

But while we're speculating, I can't imagine playing for a tie with the entire Davis family there, and the spirit of Coach Madden in the air. Seems disrespectful to his memory. 

Anyway, it's all moot - they got the 1st & kicked the FG.  

 
Raiders don’t GAF if the Steelers make it. But those other two things? Yeah - Carlson is money. IMO They try the FG either way. 
This is the way I see it too.  The Raiders had a chance to keep a divisional foe out of the playoffs and took the opportunity.  Not having to play KC in the first round is a bonus.

 
After watching the last 3 runs,

1st down, Carr under C in a 2TE set with Waller left, and Moreau right. Run call left G/T side with no pulling TE leading the way, and the play is stuffed easily for a loss.

2nd down, Carr in shotgun with Jacobs to his right, it's a 1TE, 3WR set, with Waller on the right. Renfro goes in motion from right to left. Run call left G/T side with no pulling TE leading the way, and Jacobs bounces it outside after a nice block by Miller over Bosa for 7 yards. 

3rd down, Carr in shotgun with Jacobs to his right, it's a 1TE, 3 WR set, with Waller on the right. Renfro goes in motion from right to left, (hmmm, didn't we see this last down)?

TO is called by Staley, and he changes his personnel plus formation

3rd down, Carr under C in a 1TE, 3WR bunched up set with Jacobs lined up about 5 yards back. Carr motions Zay Jones right to left, and once the ball is snapped, Moreau starts to pull from right to left as a lead blocker. Moreau takes out Bosa, while the Charger's LB White takes himself out of the play for no reason, and their safety, Adderley, is off doing his own thing in no man's land. Jacobs hits the hole behind the excellent block by Moreau on Bosa. Both Charger linemen Jones and Joseph have a shot to stop him at the 35, but Jacobs has the power and momentum to slip by them, and blast by Samuel to add another 6 yards to the run, downed at the 29.

Here's the obvious. Raiders were lined up with the exact same formation, with the same personnel and pre snap motion, on that 3rd down prior to the snap as they were on that 2nd down run play, but before the TO was called. Everything changed after the TO was taken, and they came back lined up with different personnel, formation, pre snap motion, and a lead blocking TE pulling from right to left.

One can debate if that run before the TO being called would have been stopped or not, but the Raiders were in the exact same formation, had the same personnel, and same pre snap motion as the previous down, so it would appear to most that they were about to run the exact same play as before. I'm pretty sure the SD defenders knew this as well, since they were on the field the previous play. It's plainly obvious the TO call brought about a play call change, which cannot be debated. Yes, it was still a run call, but nothing like what was previously shown in that sequence of plays.

 
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Huh?

You didn't watch any of it.  You know why I know?  Because you went off on SVP. 

Tell us his take. (BTW, it will take him 5 mins to do so because he never did it the first time around, but claimed to do so).

Bring it.
I watched both coaches press conferences and posted the links. You just make stuff up.  No evidence. What they said is just “coach speak” and you know what they really meant. Yeah. OK

 
They may have let him try and kick a 50ish yarder.  I doubt a 57 yarder (assuming no gain on the 3rd down carry).  But I cannot be convinced they were really "trying" to win the game.  Just watch the 1st and 2nd down runs.  No urgency whatsoever.  If you're trying to win the game you are getting to the line of scrimmage a lot quicker than that and trying to get your kicker at least inside a 45 yarder.
No urgency because they wanted to kick with no time left. And they were at 3rd down so didn’t want to leave Chargers with time either way 

 
Here's the obvious. Raiders were lined up with the exact same formation, with the same personnel and pre snap motion, on that 3rd down prior to the snap as they were on that 2nd down run play, but before the TO was called. Everything changed after the TO was taken, and they came back lined up with different personnel, formation, pre snap motion, and a lead blocking TE pulling from right to left.

One can debate if that run before the TO being called would have been stopped or not, but the Raiders were in the exact same formation, had the same personnel, and same pre snap motion as the previous down, so it would appear to most that they were about to run the exact same play as before. I'm pretty sure the SD defenders knew this as well, since they were on the field the previous play. It's plainly obvious the TO call brought about a play call change, which cannot be debated. Yes, it was still a run call, but nothing like what was previously shown in that sequence of plays.


I don't think anyone disagrees with this. 

The disagreement is whether the Raiders were playing for the win or the tie.  I think it's a silly disagreement, but yeah - they did change their play call after the TO. The TO gave them that opportunity. They called a run play either way & the end result was a 1st down, kick the field goal, everybody drink! 

But did the TO change the Raiders intention to win or tie? I'm deeply skeptical about that to the point of incredulity. 

 
No urgency because they wanted to kick with no time left. And they were at 3rd down so didn’t want to leave Chargers with time either way 
Small technicality - time left only mattered if they missed the FG, as they'd both kicked FGs in OT to that point. The FG ended the game regardless. a MFG would have potentially given SD time. 

The bigger question to me is the hypothetical of a MFG, San Diego getting the ball back with ~15 seconds. Do they try a hail mary or take a knee? 

We'll never know, but to me that's a much more realistic debate. 

 
I don't think anyone disagrees with this. 

The disagreement is whether the Raiders were playing for the win or the tie.  I think it's a silly disagreement, but yeah - they did change their play call after the TO. The TO gave them that opportunity. They called a run play either way & the end result was a 1st down, kick the field goal, everybody drink! 

But did the TO change the Raiders intention to win or tie? I'm deeply skeptical about that to the point of incredulity. 
That part I don't know, but why were they lined up to run the exact same run play again? 

 
That part I don't know, but why were they lined up to run the exact same run play again? 
Maybe because the Chargers had the exact same defensive alignment & they thought it would get them a 1st down?

The only way one can assume they were playing for the tie is if the Raiders came out in victory formation & took a knee. That seems somewhat obvious. Any other play call and the intention seems clear. 

 
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No urgency because they wanted to kick with no time left. And they were at 3rd down so didn’t want to leave Chargers with time either way 
Exactly, you see some teams do this frequently at the end of the game.  1:20 left and a completion to the  other teams 45 and they immediately take a timeout, when their opponent still has 3 timeouts.  Let that clock run a bit.  Bleed that time down so your opponent has very little time if you score.

 
This.  The timeout was still stupid though.  Raiders were lining up in shotgun for a handoff draw up the middle.  they were burning clock.  Look at the last two runs previously, It's not like they were rushing to preserve clock to try and win the game.  If Staley just let's them run that (tired) play, maybe they still get a huge chunk, who knows?  But I would have rather had them run that play then give them time to rest Jacobs, and draw up a power run with the TE pulling.

The Raiders were content with the tie until Jacobs busts off that 10 yarder.  And the timeout allowed them time to draw up a play to try and make it happen.
The timeout is so stupid (not because it didn’t change the fact that the raiders were going to run the ball on 3rd down) but it accomplishes nothing. Let’s say they stuff them on 3rd down.  Do you call the other timeout ?  Then what?  Force the chargers to punt?  Then what?  You have the ball on your own 20?  Then what?  You throw a Hail Mary?  No you should knee it.  But I don’t think the chargers coach had any idea of a formalized plan, or if he did, it was so dumb at the risk of losing a playoff spot to tie that he should be fired anyway.

that’s really my issue, it is obvious there is no critical thinking there.  And that’s the issue.

 
Maybe because the Chargers had the exact same defensive alignment & they thought it would get them a 1st down?
They basically were telling the Chargers to stop the same play again. My opinion is just an opinion, but it seemed that the Raiders were not going to go out of their way to get another 10 yards or so before that TO was called.

 
Maybe because the Chargers had the exact same defensive alignment & they thought it would get them a 1st down?

The only way one can assume they were playing for the tie is if the Raiders came out in victory formation & took a knee. That seems somewhat obvious. Any other play call and the intention seems clear. 
Well I would say it was we will run it unimaginatively and if the chargers have any ability at all to stop us we will tie.  Otherwise maybe we get a field goal.  

the raiders were never throwing the ball once it got under 2 minutes. Yes, the raiders opened up themselves to a Jacobs fumble which we could also debate if it was worth it (although you assume if he fumbles and it is fallen on it won’t get returned for a TD so the downside is minimal).  So we’re the raiders going for the win or tie?  I would say they were fine with a tie unless the chargers failed.  If the raiders were truly going for the win they would have been throwing the ball downfield.  For example if the raiders only got in with a win, not a tie, I guarantee you they aren’t running the ball there with jacobs.

 
Well I would say it was we will run it unimaginatively and if the chargers have any ability at all to stop us we will tie.  Otherwise maybe we get a field goal.  

the raiders were never throwing the ball once it got under 2 minutes. Yes, the raiders opened up themselves to a Jacobs fumble which we could also debate if it was worth it (although you assume if he fumbles and it is fallen on it won’t get returned for a TD so the downside is minimal).  So we’re the raiders going for the win or tie?  I would say they were fine with a tie unless the chargers failed.  If the raiders were truly going for the win they would have been throwing the ball downfield.  For example if the raiders only got in with a win, not a tie, I guarantee you they aren’t running the ball there with jacobs.
first off, there’s a dramatic difference in “things that can go wrong if you pass”vs “things that can go wrong if you run”. A sack kills their FG chances, a pick could get taken back, and Jacobs isn’t a fumbler, historically.

but mainly why would they be taking shots downfield if a FG wins it & ends the game?  That simply doesn’t make any sense. At all. Especially considering how good the Chargers had been against the pass, and the fact that the Chargers D was gassed & had just given up 2 HUGE run plays to Jacobs.

Pound the rock, win the game. Which is precisely what the Raiders did.

I don’t buy for an instant that they were trying to run soft to kill the game. That’s patently absurd. If that’s the intention, take a knee. Because otherwise it’s risking the fumble on a soft run for absolutely no reason when a knee achieves the same with practically zero risk.  Absurd. 

ETA: taking a knee would have been a legal play. There’s literally no rule against settling for the tie (regardless of how distasteful some of us might find it) - as such there’s no reason to call a faux play intended to fail by telegraphing it to the defense, as you’re implying. 

Offenses do run different plays out of the same formation, you know. They sometimes even use the same pre-snap movement. So just because they were lined up the same really isn't proof that the same run play would be called. 

 
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Remember that episode of Three's Company where Chrissy and Janet were talking about something in the kitchen and Jack overheard them and totally misunderstood the context, leading to humorous results?  That was a great episode.
That was the whole show and maybe if you were lucky Chrissy would be at the receiving end of some type of water hazard causing her entire top to soak and rendering it see thru  :eek:

 
The timeout is so stupid (not because it didn’t change the fact that the raiders were going to run the ball on 3rd down) but it accomplishes nothing. Let’s say they stuff them on 3rd down.  Do you call the other timeout ?  Then what?  Force the chargers to punt?  Then what?  You have the ball on your own 20?  Then what?  You throw a Hail Mary?  No you should knee it.  But I don’t think the chargers coach had any idea of a formalized plan, or if he did, it was so dumb at the risk of losing a playoff spot to tie that he should be fired anyway.

that’s really my issue, it is obvious there is no critical thinking there.  And that’s the issue.
The timeout was called to set the defense up. There was no other strategic objective of it. Let the clock run until Vegas is about to snap to burn as much time as possible then call timeout to set the defense. That’s it.

 
That was the whole show and maybe if you were lucky Chrissy would be at the receiving end of some type of water hazard causing her entire top to soak and rendering it see thru  :eek:
Anything to get Chrissy in a bikini was everyone’s favorite episode, though I always thought Janet was hotter. 

 
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Well I would say it was we will run it unimaginatively and if the chargers have any ability at all to stop us we will tie.  Otherwise maybe we get a field goal.  

the raiders were never throwing the ball once it got under 2 minutes. Yes, the raiders opened up themselves to a Jacobs fumble which we could also debate if it was worth it (although you assume if he fumbles and it is fallen on it won’t get returned for a TD so the downside is minimal).  So we’re the raiders going for the win or tie?  I would say they were fine with a tie unless the chargers failed.  If the raiders were truly going for the win they would have been throwing the ball downfield.  For example if the raiders only got in with a win, not a tie, I guarantee you they aren’t running the ball there with jacobs.
There's a middle ground there.  I would say they were fine settling for the tie but preferred the win for obvious reasons.  When it got down under two minutes they weren't going to take the risk of throwing the ball but they were still trying to get into comfortable FG position if they could without too much risk.  I'm sure the coaches told the holder and the kicker that if the snap and hold were not perfect, don't kick it.  Also if the FG attempt was 10 yards further they would have just run out the clock but thanks to the Chargers pathetic run defense (which has been a problem all year) it worked out perfect for them.

 
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There's a middle ground there.  I would say they were fine settling for the tie but preferred the win for obvious reasons.  When it got down under two minutes they weren't going to take the risk of throwing the ball but they were still trying to get into comfortable FG position if they could without too much risk if they could.  I'm sure the coaches told the holder and the kicker that if the snap and hold were not perfect, don't kick it.  Also if the FG attempt was 10 yards further they would have just run out the clock but thanks to the Chargers pathetic run defense (which has been a problem all year) it worked out perfect for them.
Well summed. I agree with this. Run until they stop you, don't take risks & hope to win the game. 

It was literally a no-lose scenario for the Raiders at the point of that 3rd down, but one outcome was clearly preferable to the other. 

But they most certainly weren't calling over to the Chargers, "hey, here's what's coming, try to stop it wink wink winkity wink"

lol

 
This was already debunked earlier in this thread. He pulled a LB for a DT, not a DB.


OH

Before TO

LAC (4 DL-2 LB w/Murray on field & 5 DB)

After TO

LV stayed in 11 personnel, LAC took LB Murray out, only 1 LB on field & now S had to come down & play LB & didn’t know to read TE like a LB would following TE right into tackle & instead read it like S giving up big run

 
As an add on,like any defensive TO before a crucial play it also gave the offense a chance to think about their play and that can draw some criticism. I don’t buy the line of thinking that the offense benefited from the rest though. They just had the 2 minute warning and weren’t in any sort of hurry up. They were fine. Also no way did they give less than full effort blocking the previous 2 runs. No chance.

 
There's a middle ground there.  I would say they were fine settling for the tie but preferred the win for obvious reasons.  When it got down under two minutes they weren't going to take the risk of throwing the ball but they were still trying to get into comfortable FG position if they could without too much risk if they could.  I'm sure the coaches told the holder and the kicker that if the snap and hold were not perfect, don't kick it.  Also if the FG attempt was 10 yards further they would have just run out the clock but thanks to the Chargers pathetic run defense (which has been a problem all year) it worked out perfect for them.
Makes perfect sense, but I do think that TO gave them the opportunity to call a much more aggressive run play. I am convinced the run play before the TO was a carbon copy of the 2nd down call, and the SD defenders knew it as well. It was only a question if they were going to stop the same run play or not.

 
Makes perfect sense, but I do think that TO gave them the opportunity to call a much more aggressive run play. I am convinced the run play before the TO was a carbon copy of the 2nd down call, and the SD defenders knew it as well. It was only a question if they were going to stop the same run play or not.
It may have looked like it, but without trying to sound condescending here, that's basically the nature of NFL offensive schemes in present-day NFL. Show them the same look with several different playcalls, and within those playcalls have several options for the QB to change the play at the line, or within the play as with the RPO style plays. 

The Raiders could have run 5 different run plays out of that exact same formation. You just aren't privy to what they were going to call there, which kills your point, since it's predicated on the assertion that "the same" play was going to be called, based on the formation. 

 
It may have looked like it, but without trying to sound condescending here, that's basically the nature of NFL offensive schemes in present-day NFL. Show them the same look with several different playcalls, and within those playcalls have several options for the QB to change the play at the line, or within the play as with the RPO style plays. 

The Raiders could have run 5 different run plays out of that exact same formation. You just aren't privy to what they were going to call there, which kills your point, since it's predicated on the assertion that "the same" play was going to be called, based on the formation. 
They ran to left on first and second down, and were in the same setup on 2nd and 3rd. Yes, of course they could have shown the same look and run another play. My opinion is the same play was coming. I'm not basing it on fact, just on what I felt in that sequence, and from what I saw. Raiders did not have the look of a team ready to take risks at that stage. After the TO, they called an obviously different run play, and the rest is history. 

 
OH

Before TO

LAC (4 DL-2 LB w/Murray on field & 5 DB)

After TO

LV stayed in 11 personnel, LAC took LB Murray out, only 1 LB on field & now S had to come down & play LB & didn’t know to read TE like a LB would following TE right into tackle & instead read it like S giving up big run
They replaced the LB Murray, who's been terrible, with DT Joseph, just like they did twice earlier in short yardage situations (successfully).

LV out-executed them this time, it was their "best" run defense (and I use that term loosely).

 
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They ran to left on first and second down, and were in the same setup on 2nd and 3rd. Yes, of course they could have shown the same look and run another play. My opinion is the same play was coming. I'm not basing it on fact, just on what I felt in that sequence, and from what I saw. Raiders did not have the look of a team ready to take risks at that stage. After the TO, they called an obviously different run play, and the rest is history. 
Well, that’s one interpretation. Obviously, I disagree. You are certainly entitled to that opinion though.  :hifive:

 
Come on, any good drunk judge should be better than trying to deflect like this.  You made the assertion, now show us.

All of you claimed so far is SVP has no idea what he's talking about (he had plenty to show, btw). 

So we'll wait for your mountain of evidence, shall we?  (We can send it to SVP and show him how wrong he was!)
You directed me to the coaches press conferences. I listened. Posted links. Nothing to what you insinuated. Then you blow it off as coach speak because somehow you know for a fact that the Raiders changed their strategy and decided to stick it to the Chargers because they were insulted by the time out. That they were playing for the tie all along. Even if the coaches said differently.  You don’t know squat. 

 
They replaced the LB Murray, who's been terrible, with DT Joseph, just like they did twice earlier in short yardage situations (successfully).

LV out-executed them this time, it was their "best" run defense (and I use that term loosely).
off topic

Murray is one of the worst 1st round busts of the last few years - his PFF grade this year was 34.6. At least last year he was mediocre (45th out of 88 off ball LBs.)

The Chargers traded up to get him.

 
I have to go to a hey let’s meet up and see if we can get omicron meeting, see you guys tonight 

only 94 pages to go 

 
The Raiders look like that misfit team everyone counted out,  then turn into a team of destiny defying all the odds time and time again 

 
The Raiders look like that misfit team everyone counted out,  then turn into a team of destiny defying all the odds time and time again 
They gave up 3x 4th & longs on that final Chargers drive to tie it, any of which would have won them the game had they been able to make a stop.

I’m not sure “team of destiny” or “defying the odds” are accurate descriptions of events that unfolded. lol

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
They gave up 3x 4th & longs on that final Chargers drive to tie it, any of which would have won them the game had they been able to make a stop.

I’m not sure “team of destiny” or “defying the odds” are accurate descriptions of events that unfolded. lol
and after all that they still won, I chalk that up to Hebert playing off the hook. 
Thats 4 in a row , its impressive by any measure all things considered 

 
and after all that they still won, I chalk that up to Hebert playing off the hook. 
Thats 4 in a row , its impressive by any measure all things considered 
Sure, but "got lucky as hell after failing to shut the door repeatedly" would also seem like an accurate description. 

 
Cobbler1 said:
The timeout was called to set the defense up. There was no other strategic objective of it. Let the clock run until Vegas is about to snap to burn as much time as possible then call timeout to set the defense. That’s it.
The raiders were not running no huddle.  There was no reason the chargers shouldn’t have had whatever personnel they wanted in there, unless they were not ready.

 
Judge Smails said:
You directed me to the coaches press conferences. I listened. Posted links. Nothing to what you insinuated. Then you blow it off as coach speak because somehow you know for a fact that the Raiders changed their strategy and decided to stick it to the Chargers because they were insulted by the time out. That they were playing for the tie all along. Even if the coaches said differently.  You don’t know squat. 


What in the world are you talking about now?

I come back from lunch and you have turned the entire thing upside down (once you started reading up on things today and realized you were on the wrong side) and found a way to make it look like you had ground to stand on.

Forget the game, I would hire your dr*** ### and whatever you're pitching in a heartbeat. :hifive:  

 
The raiders were not running no huddle.  There was no reason the chargers shouldn’t have had whatever personnel they wanted in there, unless they were not ready.
Oh I know, they certainly could have substituted while the clock was ticking. I don’t think they were certain they were ready and with the season on the line they wanted to be certain.

 
The chargers coach is painfully over his head as a head NFL coach.

This was apparent throughout the game and the timeout was just the cherry on top.

Seemed desperate the entire game, could not figure out how to get Ekeler more involved, no game awareness and just baffling calls that were not just aggressive but reckless.

The chargers are a heads and shoulders more talented football team than the raiders, but we’re coached down which was a pattern throughout the season.


This is sad.  And I feel bad, I like the Chargers.

But true. 

Do not tell Chargers fans the truth, however, the scars of decades past run deep.

 
Oh I know, they certainly could have substituted while the clock was ticking. I don’t think they were certain they were ready and with the season on the line they wanted to be certain.


The backtrack is now in full motion, I see.  8 hours it took.  Not real smooth but not too shabby either.

 

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