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Charles Johnson - WR Grand Valley State (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter werdnoynek
- Start date
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright and Patterson. Not really a need.Young 8 said:No WRs for the Vikings in the first three rounds.
skol asylum
Footballguy
They can pick up Duron Carter when the Colts cut him.
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
Adam Theilen is also there...decent 5th WR and special teams stud.Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright and Patterson. Not really a need.Young 8 said:No WRs for the Vikings in the first three rounds.
loose circuits
Footballguy
Love the value of Diggs
cstu
Footballguy
Fresh Prince of Bel Nor
Footballguy
Not really anything fantasy related--I just thought this needed to be shared. It's hard not to question the motives of athletes/celebrities when they do something positive that attracts a lot of media attention. In this case, it seems obvious that the man shows up with his family solely because he was moved by her story. I think he is going to end up on a lot of my teams this year.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015/04/18/minnesota-birthday-party-charles-johnson-mackenzie-moretter/26019497/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015/04/18/minnesota-birthday-party-charles-johnson-mackenzie-moretter/26019497/
Bold prediction: If third-year Patterson can put up even 3/4 of third-year Percy Harvin's stats, the Vikes (27th last year) are gonna be a top-10 offense this season ... with or without AP.Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright and Patterson. Not really a need.No WRs for the Vikings in the first three rounds.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Hell diggs is the wr3 right now. He is more a wr than cpatt. They should move patterson to rb
loose circuits
Footballguy
thanks for sharing, my son has sotos so this hits home...
lod01
Footballguy
The guy got lucky that Norv Turner coached in Cleveland, otherwise, he probably languishes as a special teams guy. Green Bay knew what they had and messed up. Cleveland had no idea but Norv was there when Johnson was so he knew.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Ya I also think there was a story about Kyle Shanahan was pissed off when the Browns let this guy go. It was only one of the many things that caused Shanahan to run for the hills.lod01 said:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If he can carry that weight without destroying his body he's got beast potential, and would be far more likely to be the team's #1 WR than Wallace IMO.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
From the article:
Without seeing what the projections are for Mike Wallace and Bridgewater it is hard to put this projection into perspective.
I think this is overly optimistic unless the author has Bridgewater throwing the ball 550+ times.
Johnson had a 52.5% catch rate last season. So unless this significantly improves (it might) that would require 140+ targets for Johnson to end up with 75 receptions.
While I think that would be great I consider it unlikely.
People seem to forget that Norv Turners comments about Johnson being the best WR on the team was before they traded for Mike Wallace. I consider Wallace a lock for the most targeted WR on the Vikings in 2015.
cr8f
Footballguy
75 is too many? I think he can do that. That isn't a ton these days but will have to improve his drops.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's assuming it doesn't improve at all. All players over 100 targets last year averaged 61.4%, which would require just 122 targets. 24 players got that, so this seems quite realistic to me.
cr8f
Footballguy
75 catches would have been 27th in the league last season and I don't see Wallace as the #1 there in a new system.
Norv is no stranger to having two decent WR's, one of whom is more of an all-around threat, and one of whom is a burner/field stretcher.
I think it's well worth looking to his previous sets of skill guys...since there are a couple that very conspicuously featured workhorses at RB, young QB's, and WR's with that particular pairing of skills.
Rams: Everett/Greg Bell/Ellard/Flipper Anderson.
Cowboys: Aikman/Emmitt/Irvin/Harper
In both cases, the all-around guy SIGNIFICANTLY out-targeted the deep threat. Maybe you'd point out that Irvin and Ellard were legends...so duh...but I'd point out that they weren't when Norv took hold of them. Both guys were rather pedestrian wideouts who struggled until Norv fit them into roles opposite dynamic downfield threats. And the leap came INSTANTLY once Norv put all the pieces in place.
As successful as that formula's been for Norv, I'd be amazed to see him change it too drastically. And it's obvious who fits into which roles with the 2015 Vikes.
I think Johnson will get every opportunity to fill that Irvin/Ellard role, and if last season's flashes are any indication, he's a good bet to run laps around Wallace in every meaningful FF metric, unless you count YPC.
Johnson doesn't necessarily need to be the greater talent. He needs to be good enough for his role in the scheme to remain secure, and the formula should take care of the numbers for him.
I think it's well worth looking to his previous sets of skill guys...since there are a couple that very conspicuously featured workhorses at RB, young QB's, and WR's with that particular pairing of skills.
Rams: Everett/Greg Bell/Ellard/Flipper Anderson.
Cowboys: Aikman/Emmitt/Irvin/Harper
In both cases, the all-around guy SIGNIFICANTLY out-targeted the deep threat. Maybe you'd point out that Irvin and Ellard were legends...so duh...but I'd point out that they weren't when Norv took hold of them. Both guys were rather pedestrian wideouts who struggled until Norv fit them into roles opposite dynamic downfield threats. And the leap came INSTANTLY once Norv put all the pieces in place.
As successful as that formula's been for Norv, I'd be amazed to see him change it too drastically. And it's obvious who fits into which roles with the 2015 Vikes.
I think Johnson will get every opportunity to fill that Irvin/Ellard role, and if last season's flashes are any indication, he's a good bet to run laps around Wallace in every meaningful FF metric, unless you count YPC.
Johnson doesn't necessarily need to be the greater talent. He needs to be good enough for his role in the scheme to remain secure, and the formula should take care of the numbers for him.
loose circuits
Footballguy
good stuff, looked up his year in SF and 2 years in Oak. Same kind of deal- one WR focused on possession and other guy has high risk/reward stuff. Seems like Jerry Porter switched to the possession guy when Moss showed up...Norv is no stranger to having two decent WR's, one of whom is more of an all-around threat, and one of whom is a burner/field stretcher.
I think it's well worth looking to his previous sets of skill guys...since there are a couple that very conspicuously featured workhorses at RB, young QB's, and WR's with that particular pairing of skills.
Rams: Everett/Greg Bell/Ellard/Flipper Anderson.
Cowboys: Aikman/Emmitt/Irvin/Harper
In both cases, the all-around guy SIGNIFICANTLY out-targeted the deep threat. Maybe you'd point out that Irvin and Ellard were legends...so duh...but I'd point out that they weren't when Norv took hold of them. Both guys were rather pedestrian wideouts who struggled until Norv fit them into roles opposite dynamic downfield threats. And the leap came INSTANTLY once Norv put all the pieces in place.
As successful as that formula's been for Norv, I'd be amazed to see him change it too drastically. And it's obvious who fits into which roles with the 2015 Vikes.
I think Johnson will get every opportunity to fill that Irvin/Ellard role, and if last season's flashes are any indication, he's a good bet to run laps around Wallace in every meaningful FF metric, unless you count YPC.
Johnson doesn't necessarily need to be the greater talent. He needs to be good enough for his role in the scheme to remain secure, and the formula should take care of the numbers for him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Mike Wallace career stats 659 targets 375 receptions 56.9% catch rate 5834 yards 15.6ypc 61.4 yards/gameFreelove said:I think Johnson will get every opportunity to fill that Irvin/Ellard role, and if last season's flashes are any indication, he's a good bet to run laps around Wallace in every meaningful FF metric, unless you count YPC.
47TD .494TD/game 1TD/12.5 receptions 27 rushing attempts 200 yards 7.4ypc
has scored 10TD twice in his 6 year career.
The lowest Wallace has ranked for fantasy is WR29 in standard leagues with 119 points. As a rookie. He has finished in the top 10 twice.
Charles Johnson 59 targets 31 receptions 52.5% catch rate 475 yards 15.3ypc 39.6 yards/game
2TD .166TD/game 1TD/15.5 receptions 1 rushing attempt -11 yards
Johnson scored 60 fantasy points in 2014 which was WR 79
I see at least a few metrics here where Wallace is clearly the better WR especially ones that matter for FF
loose circuits
Footballguy
Charles Johnson has way too small of a sample size especially when you consider rookie QB and coming off ACL tear, not spending training camp with his QB or in the same system, etc...Mike Wallace career stats 659 targets 375 receptions 56.9% catch rate 5834 yards 15.6ypc 61.4 yards/gameFreelove said:I think Johnson will get every opportunity to fill that Irvin/Ellard role, and if last season's flashes are any indication, he's a good bet to run laps around Wallace in every meaningful FF metric, unless you count YPC.
47TD .494TD/game 1TD/12.5 receptions 27 rushing attempts 200 yards 7.4ypc
has scored 10TD twice in his 6 year career.
The lowest Wallace has ranked for fantasy is WR29 in standard leagues with 119 points. As a rookie. He has finished in the top 10 twice.
Charles Johnson 59 targets 31 receptions 52.5% catch rate 475 yards 15.3ypc 39.6 yards/game
2TD .166TD/game 1TD/15.5 receptions 1 rushing attempt -11 yards
Johnson scored 60 fantasy points in 2014 which was WR 79
I see at least a few metrics here where Wallace is clearly the better WR especially ones that matter for FF
You don't see any metrics where the two have played together in Norv's trademark burner/possession scheme.Mike Wallace career stats 659 targets 375 receptions 56.9% catch rate 5834 yards 15.6ypc 61.4 yards/gameFreelove said:I think Johnson will get every opportunity to fill that Irvin/Ellard role, and if last season's flashes are any indication, he's a good bet to run laps around Wallace in every meaningful FF metric, unless you count YPC.
47TD .494TD/game 1TD/12.5 receptions 27 rushing attempts 200 yards 7.4ypc
has scored 10TD twice in his 6 year career.
The lowest Wallace has ranked for fantasy is WR29 in standard leagues with 119 points. As a rookie. He has finished in the top 10 twice.
Charles Johnson 59 targets 31 receptions 52.5% catch rate 475 yards 15.3ypc 39.6 yards/game
2TD .166TD/game 1TD/15.5 receptions 1 rushing attempt -11 yards
Johnson scored 60 fantasy points in 2014 which was WR 79
I see at least a few metrics here where Wallace is clearly the better WR especially ones that matter for FF
You have to rely on history for that...or ignore it entirely, I guess.
loose circuits
Footballguy
i don't think the pro-Charles Johnson crowd is using his production last year as a metric because there were mitigating circumstances- you don't think any allowances should be made for a guy that was coming off ACL surgery and not signed until week 2?
mr roboto
Footballguy
Wat? 2nd year practice squad player off an ACL tear who had no offseason work in the offense with a rookie QB???Seriously it's ####### remarkable he got on the field at all.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I actually did look into that last night in regards to the issue of if the Split End (Johnson or Patterson) gets more targets than the Flanker (Mike Wallace).You don't see any metrics where the two have played together in Norv's trademark burner/possession scheme.Mike Wallace career stats 659 targets 375 receptions 56.9% catch rate 5834 yards 15.6ypc 61.4 yards/gameFreelove said:I think Johnson will get every opportunity to fill that Irvin/Ellard role, and if last season's flashes are any indication, he's a good bet to run laps around Wallace in every meaningful FF metric, unless you count YPC.
47TD .494TD/game 1TD/12.5 receptions 27 rushing attempts 200 yards 7.4ypc
has scored 10TD twice in his 6 year career.
The lowest Wallace has ranked for fantasy is WR29 in standard leagues with 119 points. As a rookie. He has finished in the top 10 twice.
Charles Johnson 59 targets 31 receptions 52.5% catch rate 475 yards 15.3ypc 39.6 yards/game
2TD .166TD/game 1TD/15.5 receptions 1 rushing attempt -11 yards
Johnson scored 60 fantasy points in 2014 which was WR 79
I see at least a few metrics here where Wallace is clearly the better WR especially ones that matter for FF
You have to rely on history for that...or ignore it entirely, I guess.
Target data on PFR only goes back to 1998 so it was difficult to evaluate WR targets in Norv Turner offense prior to that.
Looking at which position the primary WR played in Truners offense since 1998 I found a pretty even split of Split Ends and Flankers being the primary target in the offense.
1998 Leslie Shepherd Flanker 97 targets (Westbrook did miss 5 games 75 targets)
1999 Albert Connell Flanker 121 targets (Westbrook 114 targets, Larry Centers with 90 targets Shepherd left for Cleveland)
2000 Albert Connell Flanker 102 targets (Larry Centers with 93 targets, 38 year old Irving Fryar with 76 targets)
2001 Curtis Conway Flanker 126 targets (Jeff Graham WR/TE 110 targets)
2002 Chris Chambers Split End 100 targets (Randy McMichel TE 68 targets, Ricky Williams RB 59 targets)
2003 Chris Chambers Split End 130 targets (Randy McMichel TE 83 targets, Ricky Williams RB 62 targets)
2004 Jerry Porter Flanker 136 targets (Doug Gabriel 79 targets, Ronald Curry 70 targets)
2005 Jerry Porter Flanker 142 targets (Randy Moss Split End 124 targets, Lamont Jordan RB 103 targets)
2006 Antonio Bryant Split End 91 targets (Frank Gore RB 86 targets, Arnaz Battle 85 targets)
2007 Antonio Gates Tight End 117 targets (LT RB 86 targets, Vincent Jackson (Z) 80 targets, Chris Chambers (X) 63 targets in 10 games)
2008 Vincent Jackson Flanker 101 targets (Antonio Gates TE 92 targets, LT RB 77 targets)
2009 Antonio Gates Tight End 114 targets (Vincent Jackson 108 targets, Malcolm Floyd split end 76 targets)
2010 Malcolm Floyd Split End 77 targets ( Darren Sproles 75 targets, Antonio Gates 65 targets in 10 games, Vincent Jackson only played in 5 games)
2011 Vincent Jackson Flanker 115 targets (Antonio Gates 88 targets, Mike Tolbert RB 79 targets)
2012 Malcolm Floyd Split End 85 targets (Antonio Gates 80 targets, Danario Alexander 62 targets in 10 games Vincent Jackson left for Tampa Bay)
2013 Josh Gordon Split End 159 targets (Jordan Cameron 118 targets, Greg Little (Z) 99 targets)
2014 Greg Jennings Flanker 92 targets (Cordarralle Patterson (X) 67 targets, Matt Asiata RB 63 targets)
9 times out of 17 the Flanker has been the highest targets position in the offense. 52.9%
6 times out of 17 the Split End has been the highest targets position in the offense. 35.3%
2 times out of 17 the Tight End has been the highest targets position in the offense 11.8%
Mike Wallace was the split end with Pittsburgh, then was used as a Flanker in Miami. So he could play either position interchangeably
The second most targeted player over these 17 seasons has often been a TE or a RB, sometimes both the second and third most targeted players are not a WR..
Bear in mind that Turner has had some very high run to pass ratios, that even in todays NFL might approach close to a 50/50 split in run to pass ratio. The last projection I did for Bridgewater I capped this at 46% rushing plays.
I have Bridgewater throwing 521-532-543 pass attempts 335-342-350 completions 3555-3634-3719 passing yards 23-24 TD
If Charles Johnson were to get 75 receptions this would be 21-22% of Bridgewaters completions. 31-32% of his passing yards and 34% of his TD.
Given the high use of RB and TE in the passing game and the fact that I think Mike Wallace is a significantly more accomplished player than Johnson is, I am not confident that Johnson will even be the fourth most targeted player on the Vikings.
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mjr
Footballguy
Your break down/analysis was pretty well thought out, but it doesn't really reflect what I saw down the stretch last year.Biabreakable said:
Take Greg Jennings for example. While I'd have to concede Jennings isn't nearly the player he used to be, he would still have to be considered the significantly more accomplished WR when compared directly with Johnson. Furthermore, Jennings, like Wallace, also has experience playing both the flanker and split end roles and should thereby also be considered an interchangeable type player. According to such reasoning, Jennings should have been the more targeted player last year....but he wasn't. Come week 11 when Johnson started to play a more significant role, Bridgewater immediately began targeting him more so than he did Jennings.
All that said, Jennings put up 4 TDs during that stretch (vs. Johnson's 2 TDs), I do believe a 2015 Wallace is a certain upgrade over a 2014 Jennings and I do believe Wallace will see more targets than Johnson. However, I don't think it'll be by a significant amount. I can see Wallace/Johnson playing out a 1A/1B type split in the receiving numbers.
cr8f
Footballguy
Getting the past to predict the future is often used but MN had a rookie HC and rookie QB. Turner is smart enough to adjust to his players and not just fit them into positions he used in the past.
I don't see Wallace getting short to medium throws nearly as much as Johnson, but being a home run threat mostly.
I don't see the 4th most targeted player either. Rudolph is hurt too often and Johnson has chemistry with Teddy now.
MN's last 3 years playing had 59 targets twice to the top 2 RB's and 74 once. In Cleveland his offense threw to them more but again I don't think the sample size is big enough to predict these things.
The last 3 years Wallace had less than 930 yards. I see him more of a deep threat and Johnson closer to the LOS and medium but Turner has worked too little with these players to predict in my opinion.
I don't see Johnson 4th in targets.
After he started games he and Teddy worked well together and with an off season working together.
With no news until TC a lot of people will make predictions but I think Turner will tailor his offense to his players; I agree with mjr above they will be 1A and 1B until something happens to elevate one or the other. on the field.
I don't see Wallace getting short to medium throws nearly as much as Johnson, but being a home run threat mostly.
I don't see the 4th most targeted player either. Rudolph is hurt too often and Johnson has chemistry with Teddy now.
MN's last 3 years playing had 59 targets twice to the top 2 RB's and 74 once. In Cleveland his offense threw to them more but again I don't think the sample size is big enough to predict these things.
The last 3 years Wallace had less than 930 yards. I see him more of a deep threat and Johnson closer to the LOS and medium but Turner has worked too little with these players to predict in my opinion.
I don't see Johnson 4th in targets.
After he started games he and Teddy worked well together and with an off season working together.
With no news until TC a lot of people will make predictions but I think Turner will tailor his offense to his players; I agree with mjr above they will be 1A and 1B until something happens to elevate one or the other. on the field.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is certainly possible that Wallace and Johnson are the two highest targeted players in the 2015 Vikings offense.
However based on the above target analysis 2 WR being the the number one and number two target only occured 5 out of 17 times or 29% while 11 out of 17 times (65%) the second most targeted player was a TE or a RB.
So I am expecting Rudolph and the other TEs to get a significant amount of targets. I also expect the RBs to get a lot of targets as well. If anything last seasons shows Bridgewaters tendency to dump off the to RBs under pressure and when no one else was getting open.
So I do not see this as a typical WR1 and WR2 get the majority of the targets in 2015. Especially when I still expect Patterson and Wright to be involved even if Johnson wins the starting X WR role.
The way that Bridgewater spreads the ball around and throws to the open receiver (often the RB) I am not sure that any Vikings WR/TE/RB sees more than 100 targets. If I were to bet on who might see 100+ targets it would be Wallace, Rudolph and not likely anyone else. As I do expect McKinnon to be used enough in the passing game that no RB will see 100 targets. Other TE such as Ellison, and either Ford or Pruitt getting some targets as well.
Just like with Patterson last offseason I would be happy to be wrong about this and Charles Johnson really breaks out this season. If that does happen the Vikings could be a more explosive offense than I am expecting. I have seen some predicting Bridgewater throwing for 4,500 yards, which again would be GREAT but honestly I do not expect that to happen. I think the defense takes a big step forward and that the Vikings may be in a lead situation more often in 2015 because of that. If this happens then the Vikings will likely run the ball more, which caps the opportunity for all receivers in 2015.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Minimum 90 catches
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Why don't you see Wallace being used in the short to intermediate passing game? They have already stated that they want to use him on WR screens and other quick hitting plays where his speed is deadly. For the most part the short and intermediate throws were the ways he was used in Miami the last two seasons which has a lot to do with his lower yardage numbers that you point out.
I have watched all of Charles Johnson's plays several times by now and this chemistry that you talk about is not really evident to me.
The most compelling thing for Johnson was the number of snaps he played during that last stretch of games.
Week 9
Jennings 63os 86%
Patterson 54os 74%
Johnson 19os 26%
Thielen 4os 5%
BYE
Week 11
Patterson 35os 74%
Jennings 32os 68%
Johnson 25os 53%
Wright 18os 38%
Thielen 11os 23%
Week 12
Johnson 66os 97%
Jennings 61os 90%
Patterson 32os 47%
Wright 8os 12%
Thielen 4os 6%
Week 13
Johnson 47os 98%
Jennings 38os 79%
Wright 28os 58%
Patterson 3os 6%
Thielen 1os 2%
Week 14
Johnson 58os 100%
Jennings 52os 90%
Wright 35os 60%
Patterson 1os 2%
Week 15
Jennings 65os 94%
Johnson 64os 93%
Wright 44os 64%
Patterson 8os 12%
Thielen 3os 4%
Week 16
Johnson 55os 90%
Jennings 47os 77%
Wright 34os 56%
Patterson 9os 15%
Thielen 6os 10%
Week 17
Johnson 57os 92%
Jennings 48os 77%
Thielen 20os 32%
Wright 8os 13%
Patterson 6os 10%
So from week 12-17 Johnson had the most offensive snaps of all WR and was in on 90% or more of the plays during that stretch of games. even more than Greg Jennings.
Here are Johnsons targets from week 12 to 17
Green Bay 11 targts 3 receptions 52 yards 1TD
Carolina 4 targets 2 receptions 41 yards
NYJets 8 targets 4 receptions 103 yards 1TD
Detroit 7 targets 5 receptions 72 yards
Miami 6 targets 3 receptions 38 yards
Chicago 4 targets 2 receptions 22 yards
During this 6 week stretch of games Johnson had 6.7 targets/game 3.2 receptions/game 54.7 yards/game .33TD/game
If you extrapolated that 6 week stretch of games to 16 this would be 107 targets 51 receptions 875 yards 5TD
loose circuits
Footballguy
you aren't hearing what everyone is saying- Johnson wasn't with the team during camp and coming off ACL injury. Why would you extrapolate those numbers? His production should be light years better
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This is a very tough receiving corps to handicap. In health Rudolph has signifIcant value particularly in the Red Zone. Wallace has a far more diverse skill set than he's given credit for. Johnson looked the part late last season of realizing the potential he has always shown. And, sitting on the sidelines is a physical freak who, if he ever figures out route running, should surpass them all. Add in our assumption that Bridgewater makes a significant step forward and AP's return loosens coverage and you have the elements of a potentially dynamic offense offset only by a likely step forward by the defense. Where to invest here apart from AP isn't obvious.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think I made the first statement.loose circuits said:
What are people saying that I have not read/heard?
Those were the last 6 games when Johnson played 90% or more of the snaps in each game. Not saying that is my projection for him, but I consider that to be closer to what I would expect from Johnson in 2015 than 75 catches 1160 yards and 8TD.
It would be very difficult for Charles Johnson to play more than he did during that stretch of games. So why should we expect his production to be light years better than that?
eta- If you go to Vikings.com you will hear a lot of talk about Mike Wallace and not as much positive buzz about Johnson as you were before the Vikings acquired Wallace. Why? Because Wallace stood out during OTAs and PR guys have realized where to hitch their wagons.
I am Vikings fan. I want Charles Johnson to succeed. But I am just being honest here that I think people are already hyping Johnson too much. It isn't quite as bad as what people were expecting from Patterson last offseason but I can see that momentum building.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
recovery time helps that knee get to 100% which means more explosion and accelerationMore time in the offense and chemistry with Teddy should also have benefits as well. Do I really need to go through this?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not really because as far as I can tell I have looked at the situation from multiple different angles. You are not saying anything I do not already know.
So what kinds of numbers are you expecting light years of improvement to be?
Johnson reportedly has added weight and strength to 225lbs during the offseason.
