GregR_2
Footballguy
I loaded up one of my league's settings and rosters into MyFBG to play around with the options in there. I generally wouldn't advise people to draft straight from a cheatsheet anyway, but there's some use in different views of player value and especially in auction values (this is an auction league). So I checked out the cheatsheets. The values that it came up with look very very suspect to me, and didn't seem like they could have come from the methodology from MT's article as the webpage stated. It was giving a very RB dominant set of values in a league setup where there is parity across all 4 skill positions.
First, here's the league setup. 6 pt all TDs, .05 passing yards, .1 rush/rec yards. RB get .25 ppr, WR get .5, TE get 1. 12 team, 55 player rorsters, starting lineup is 2 QB, 2 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE on offense. Just from that with 1 pt TE receptions and starting 2 of them, and the .5 WR receptions and starting 5 of them, plus the 2 QBs starting, we should already intuitively be expecting something close to parity across the positions.
Here's the cheatsheet I get using Dodd's projections:
Player Fant Points Value
1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson 348.4 36.7
2 RB Steven Jackson 308.1 31.3
3 QB Peyton Manning 361.1 30.1
4 QB Tom Brady 326.9 24.3
5 RB Frank Gore 244.2 23.3
6 RB Brian Westbrook 243.7 22.9
7 RB Joseph Addai 243.3 22.6
8 QB Carson Palmer 326.4 22.5
9 WR Steve Smith 245.5 22.0
10 WR Torry Holt 245.0 21.8
11 RB Willie Parker 234.9 21.3
12 WR Chad Johnson 240.1 21.1
13 RB Larry Johnson 232.6 20.7
14 RB Travis Henry 231.5 20.2
15 WR Terrell Owens 232.1 20.1
16 RB Reggie Bush 227.4 19.5
17 TE Antonio Gates 231.8 19.0
18 QB Marc Bulger 307.3 19.0
19 WR Javon Walker 220.9 18.8
20 WR Reggie Wayne 220.2 18.6
21 WR Marvin Harrison 219.8 18.5
22 WR Larry Fitzgerald 219.6 18.3
23 RB Shaun Alexander 217.1 18.1
24 RB Rudi Johnson 216.9 17.8
25 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 215.8 17.4
26 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 219.0 17.3
27 WR Roy Williams 218.7 17.1
28 QB Drew Brees 302.7 17.0
29 RB Clinton Portis 214.4 16.9
30 WR Anquan Boldin 207.3 15.9
Note especially where Gates shows up at 17. He's a great anomaly to track down since he's easily a mid-to-early first round pick in this league. Quick look, with an average backup baseline as MT starts with, for Dodds projections, Peyton is a 260, LT a 230, Steve Smith a 185, Gates a 180. Using that average backup baseline the only RBs ahead of Gates are LT and Steven Jackson and then a 55 point drop from Gates to the 3rd RB.
So I went through the rest of MT's methodology for TE and RB. I used his formula for # of starts, which is going to probably be accurate for RBs since his formula is a 2 RB league and so is this, but his formula for TE is going to give too low a number of starts for TEs in a 2 TE league and so hurt TE value. I used it anyway, keeping in mind that TE value should be higher than what is showing, especially for the guys in the 5-12 range.
Keep in mind these values won't match the ones from the cheatsheet I cut and pasted since those are dollar figures from a $200 cap and I'm giving the raw value without multiplying it by the value per dollar. The last column is the player's total value.
Rank Player Pts P/G P/S V/S S V
1 Antonio Gates 231.8 16.6 18.2 14.3 11.0 157.4
2 Todd Heap 191.3 13.7 15.0 11.1 10.6 117.2
3 Jeremy Shockey 188.5 13.5 14.8 10.9 10.1 109.8
4 Kellen Winslow Jr 182 13.0 14.3 10.3 9.7 99.9
5 Tony Gonzalez 179.1 12.8 14.1 10.1 9.2 93.0
6 Chris Cooley 164 11.7 12.9 8.9 8.7 78.0
7 Jason Witten 153.6 11.0 12.1 8.1 8.3 67.1
8 Vernon Davis 151.8 10.8 11.9 8.0 7.8 62.2
9 L.J. Smith 142.8 10.2 11.2 7.3 7.3 53.4
Here are those top few RBs:
Rank Player Pts P/G P/S V/S S V
1 Tomlinson 348.42 24.9 27.4 18.1 11.1 200.4
2 Jackson 308.05 22.0 24.2 14.9 10.9 162.3
3 Gore 244.15 17.4 19.2 9.9 10.7 105.6
4 Westbrook 243.7 17.4 19.1 9.8 10.5 103.2
5 Addai 243.35 17.4 19.1 9.8 10.3 101.0
6 Parker 234.9 16.8 18.5 9.1 10.1 92.3
7 Johnson 232.55 16.6 18.3 9.0 9.9 88.6
8 Henry 231.5 16.5 18.2 8.9 9.7 86.0
9 Bush 227.4 16.2 17.9 8.5 9.5 81.2
So even with pessimistic TE games started, Gates should be 50-70 value points ahead of the 3rd to 9th best RBs who appear ahead of him in the cheatsheet, which means he's worth 150 to 200% of what those RBs are. Heap and Shockey should also be be ahead of the 3rd best RB, but instead are 36th and 44th in the draft sheet, 3 and 4 rounds behind where that RB3 shows up.
If I monkey with the league settings just to see what I have to do to make the cheatsheet look reasonable, I have to start 5-6 TEs just to get Gates near some semblance of what MT's formula says his value should be.
It seems like either MT's formula is not being correctly applied, or it isn't what's being used. MT's system does seem to provide some reasonable values when I apply it to this league, but what's showing on the website doesn't seem to reflect his system's results.
First, here's the league setup. 6 pt all TDs, .05 passing yards, .1 rush/rec yards. RB get .25 ppr, WR get .5, TE get 1. 12 team, 55 player rorsters, starting lineup is 2 QB, 2 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE on offense. Just from that with 1 pt TE receptions and starting 2 of them, and the .5 WR receptions and starting 5 of them, plus the 2 QBs starting, we should already intuitively be expecting something close to parity across the positions.
Here's the cheatsheet I get using Dodd's projections:
Player Fant Points Value
1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson 348.4 36.7
2 RB Steven Jackson 308.1 31.3
3 QB Peyton Manning 361.1 30.1
4 QB Tom Brady 326.9 24.3
5 RB Frank Gore 244.2 23.3
6 RB Brian Westbrook 243.7 22.9
7 RB Joseph Addai 243.3 22.6
8 QB Carson Palmer 326.4 22.5
9 WR Steve Smith 245.5 22.0
10 WR Torry Holt 245.0 21.8
11 RB Willie Parker 234.9 21.3
12 WR Chad Johnson 240.1 21.1
13 RB Larry Johnson 232.6 20.7
14 RB Travis Henry 231.5 20.2
15 WR Terrell Owens 232.1 20.1
16 RB Reggie Bush 227.4 19.5
17 TE Antonio Gates 231.8 19.0
18 QB Marc Bulger 307.3 19.0
19 WR Javon Walker 220.9 18.8
20 WR Reggie Wayne 220.2 18.6
21 WR Marvin Harrison 219.8 18.5
22 WR Larry Fitzgerald 219.6 18.3
23 RB Shaun Alexander 217.1 18.1
24 RB Rudi Johnson 216.9 17.8
25 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 215.8 17.4
26 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 219.0 17.3
27 WR Roy Williams 218.7 17.1
28 QB Drew Brees 302.7 17.0
29 RB Clinton Portis 214.4 16.9
30 WR Anquan Boldin 207.3 15.9
Note especially where Gates shows up at 17. He's a great anomaly to track down since he's easily a mid-to-early first round pick in this league. Quick look, with an average backup baseline as MT starts with, for Dodds projections, Peyton is a 260, LT a 230, Steve Smith a 185, Gates a 180. Using that average backup baseline the only RBs ahead of Gates are LT and Steven Jackson and then a 55 point drop from Gates to the 3rd RB.
So I went through the rest of MT's methodology for TE and RB. I used his formula for # of starts, which is going to probably be accurate for RBs since his formula is a 2 RB league and so is this, but his formula for TE is going to give too low a number of starts for TEs in a 2 TE league and so hurt TE value. I used it anyway, keeping in mind that TE value should be higher than what is showing, especially for the guys in the 5-12 range.
Keep in mind these values won't match the ones from the cheatsheet I cut and pasted since those are dollar figures from a $200 cap and I'm giving the raw value without multiplying it by the value per dollar. The last column is the player's total value.
Rank Player Pts P/G P/S V/S S V
1 Antonio Gates 231.8 16.6 18.2 14.3 11.0 157.4
2 Todd Heap 191.3 13.7 15.0 11.1 10.6 117.2
3 Jeremy Shockey 188.5 13.5 14.8 10.9 10.1 109.8
4 Kellen Winslow Jr 182 13.0 14.3 10.3 9.7 99.9
5 Tony Gonzalez 179.1 12.8 14.1 10.1 9.2 93.0
6 Chris Cooley 164 11.7 12.9 8.9 8.7 78.0
7 Jason Witten 153.6 11.0 12.1 8.1 8.3 67.1
8 Vernon Davis 151.8 10.8 11.9 8.0 7.8 62.2
9 L.J. Smith 142.8 10.2 11.2 7.3 7.3 53.4
Here are those top few RBs:
Rank Player Pts P/G P/S V/S S V
1 Tomlinson 348.42 24.9 27.4 18.1 11.1 200.4
2 Jackson 308.05 22.0 24.2 14.9 10.9 162.3
3 Gore 244.15 17.4 19.2 9.9 10.7 105.6
4 Westbrook 243.7 17.4 19.1 9.8 10.5 103.2
5 Addai 243.35 17.4 19.1 9.8 10.3 101.0
6 Parker 234.9 16.8 18.5 9.1 10.1 92.3
7 Johnson 232.55 16.6 18.3 9.0 9.9 88.6
8 Henry 231.5 16.5 18.2 8.9 9.7 86.0
9 Bush 227.4 16.2 17.9 8.5 9.5 81.2
So even with pessimistic TE games started, Gates should be 50-70 value points ahead of the 3rd to 9th best RBs who appear ahead of him in the cheatsheet, which means he's worth 150 to 200% of what those RBs are. Heap and Shockey should also be be ahead of the 3rd best RB, but instead are 36th and 44th in the draft sheet, 3 and 4 rounds behind where that RB3 shows up.
If I monkey with the league settings just to see what I have to do to make the cheatsheet look reasonable, I have to start 5-6 TEs just to get Gates near some semblance of what MT's formula says his value should be.
It seems like either MT's formula is not being correctly applied, or it isn't what's being used. MT's system does seem to provide some reasonable values when I apply it to this league, but what's showing on the website doesn't seem to reflect his system's results.
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