one would hope Marshall would look at what happened with Chris Henry and rethink his off the field lifestyle and decisions. Most of Marshall's issues were off the field and had to do with battery charges until the new coaching regime. So he definitely had that in common with Henry. Maybe that hit home, and he keeps his nose clean.
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Chris Wesseling Dynasty Rank: Wide Receivers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
It's not a blindspot at all. In fact, I'd say it's much more accurate to say a rigid defender has a blindspot. My eyes are wide open to who Brandon Marshall is. I do apply "knucklehead factor" to all, and I have not overlooked it in Bowe at all. Bowe has been docked for being a potential knucklehead. Marshall has been docked more for being a quintessential knucklehead. V-Jax hasn't been docked yet because I don't consider him a knucklehead.Marshall's attitude problems aren't "alleged." They're real. He's had them under both head coaches, and his toddler-level antics in practice last summer were on video for anyone to see. You could easily google Marshall's attitude problems and come up with a laundry list of responses. Re: common knowledge. Marshall's problem with women are common knowledge because he's made them that way. You can try to gloss it up by calling it "alleged," but this isn't a court of law. We deal with reality here, and the reality is Marshall has had a lot of run-ins with the law. I've met a lot of people from all walks of life over the years, and zero of them have had as many incidents with the police as a mid-20s Brandon Marshall.
I would not agree that Marshall is a "top 3 or 4 in terms of performance." If you're talking fantasy, he might be close. If you're talking all-around NFL receiver, I don't think it's close. If you're talking anticipated production over the next couple of seasons (which is what Dynasty leagues should be concerned with), again, I don't think it's close to top 3 or 4. Just my two cents.
If you're willing to overlook "things that are not proven in a court of law" then you're missing out on most of what goes into being a knucklehead. Did you need Plax to get booked in jail before you realized he was a knucklehead? Did you need Laurence Phillips or Cecil the Diesel to be convicted before realizing they weren't dealing with a full deck? If you're waiting for the legal system to run its course, you're certainly not staying ahead of the curve on player values. You can throw out cute names like McFool, but it doesn't change the fact that you completely ignored the article I posted on Shanahan's major issues with Marshall. How can this all be thrown at McFool's feet when Shanny was so fed up with Marshall that he was determined to ship off the team? To reiterate: "Shanahan, a source said, felt Marshall had cost the Broncos more victories by his poor route running, dropped passes and his tepid run-blocking efforts. The coach also anticipated some contract problems, a source said."Those issues aren't going away. That's who Brandon Marshall is.
There is no way to work him. He's a delusional, immature buffoon. I can't speak for how others valued Randy Moss. Personally, I had him ranked No. 1 before he entered the league and kept him there until he was traded to the Raiders.
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squistion
Footballguy
The article on Shanahan should be viewed with skepticism because all the sources quoted were anonymous and have remained so to this day (to my knowledge). Despite that, you regard these statements as gospel, perhaps because it reinforces the preconceptions you have about Marshall. These sources may indeed be an accurate account of how Shanahan felt, but they could also be from someone with an axe to grind with Marshal or with some other agenda. When someone is willing to officially go on the record then we can take these accusations a little more seriously.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I think F & L is spot on as far as Marshall is concerned. Also, it doesn't take a conviction for Goodell to suspend a player.
cr8f
Footballguy
No kidding. I had low ball offers for him last year and it looks like this year will be the same. Hope he's traded to Baltimore.Cotchery at 30 is too low too. For me he is one of the best #2 WR's. 47. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts | Age: 26.0 – Like most Colts players, he derives more value from situation than talent. Now that Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have emerged as promising receivers, Gonzalez's situation has changed dramatically.I wonder how the Colts WR/TE crew will play out.
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GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
He's 27 and was ranked 32nd in PPR scoring last year. 30th seems about right IMO.
VA Sundevil
Footballguy
Wear a seatbelt?
Donnybrook
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
I won't argue with you about Marshall as it is clear you aren't open to seeing the other side, but let me ask why you don't consider VJax a knucklehead? He already has one DWI conviction (same as Marshall) but he now has another arrest on top of it, and on the day of the playoffs no less! http://www.duiattorney.com/news/6613-charg...arrested-sunday
As far as Shanny and Marshall goes, that's innuendo. I like how the writer doesn't even acknowledge his "source." What? Is he afraid Brandon Marshall is going to fire him? I really despise that sort of reporting. I am not aware of Shanny himself ever saying anything about how he was planning to release Marshall, but maybe I missed it. If I did, then I'll admit I was wrong.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
Disagree 100% He's one of the very few guys in the league that can outperform Fitzgerald, Johnson, or Moss. He's every bit the athlete any on the list as well. What you're failing to realize is that because the Lions surrounded him with players resembling a dumpster fire, he was triple teamed nearly every play. On top of that, having the garbage at quarterback after the injury to Stafford killed his season. The Lions brass is already saying they're bringing in players to take some heat off of him. That paired with a second season of Stafford and I think he's valued right where he should be. Being a packers die hard and seeing him always perform well against them, I can assure you there is no over-rating him. Give him half the help anyone else on this list has and he's top 3.
EBF
Footballguy
Crabtree is going to be a really solid possession WR. The lack of a franchise QB is a valid concern in the short term, but we're talking dynasty here. Crabtree averaged 56.8 yards per game as a rookie despite missing the first four weeks of the season and all of training camp. From the minute he stepped on the field he has looked like an NFL WR1 with all of the tools needed to become a perennial 1000+ yard WR. If anything, I think he's slightly undervalued at WR16. I think he's a top 10-12 guy. Maybe higher. By the way, Shaun Hill and Alex Smith didn't prevent Vernon Davis from putting up a monster season. Some of those targets will shift to Crabtree next season. I expect the first of many 1000+ yard campaigns from him. Sure, it would help if he had Aaron Rodgers slinging him the rock, but he's capable of putting up WR2 stats with any scrub under center.
SSOG
Moderator
F&L already posted an article explaining why he didn't dock VJax for "knucklehead factor". Reasons include, but are not limited to:1. Counselors at the league-mandated counseling saying he doesn't have a drinking problem.
2. The refs near VJax when he kicked the flag smiling and having no problem with the action.
3. VJax spending his college career earning Academic All American honors instead of assaulting police officers.
As for Shanny and Marshall... you're absolutely right, that's innuendo. It's never been proven, it's just smoke. And the domestic charges against his old girlfriend are also innuendo. They weren't proven, they're just smoke. And the domestic charges with his fiance were never proven, they're just innuendo, just more smoke. Marshall's altercation with a position coach mid-game? We don't know what was said, that's all speculation, just more smoke. Marshall's previous league suspension and the belief that Goodell told Marshall to straighten up or he'd get the full force of the hammer? More speculation, more innuendo, more smoke. When Cutler was throwing Marshall under the bus, that didn't necessarily mean that Marshall was a bad teammate, it was just so much more smoke.
The difference between you and me, though, is if I see a building with massive amounts of smoke billowing out of every window, I don't try to think of plausible explanations for each individual plume of smoke. I don't say "hmm... that plume from the kitchen might be because they're burning bacon, and the one from the downstairs window might be car exhaust from the garage, and the one from the bedroom might actually be water vapor from a humidifier, and the one from the bathroom is probably just some scented candles!". I look at the house with all the smoke pouring out and say "hey, you know what, I bet there's a fire there!".
Really, there are two explanations for Marshall's history. Either he's the unluckiest guy who has ever walked the planet and everyone is working together in this massive conspiracy against him, or else he's a knucklehead. It's possible that Mike Shanahan, Josh McDaniels, the Orlando Police, his former girlfriend, his current fiance, his position coach, Roger Goodell, and his former QB have all gotten together and hatched this elaborate scheme to discredit him... or else he's a tool with no respect for authority, no class, a penchant for domestic violence, and a prominent place at the top of Goodell's short list.
inzanitee
Footballguy
This is interesting to me, because VJax has multiple DIU's. He was convicted once and faces a second charge. He was caught driving with a suspended license before the playoff game. Do you think he is making rational decisions right now? I'm not saying he is going to implode, but it seems like someone with his intelligence would learn his lesson and move on after being caught the first time. The fact that he repeated his offense, driving while under the influence after being caught and convicted once (putting his life and others at risk), and was subsequently caught breaking the law again by driving without a license implies that he hasn't learned anything. I am not comparing VJax to Marshall, I am saying there is a pattern of behavior here that seems to imply extremely poor decisions on his part, and yet it is being brushed aside.
flat_earth
Footballguy
I agree with the inzanitee here, but I also tend to agree with F&L's original heavy downgrading of Marshall for being the biggest knucklehead WR in the league. I guess I just think that VJax is too high. My problem with VJax's high ranking is the slight knucklehead factor as mentioned above, coupled with the fact that the dude only caught 59 and 68 passes in the last two years on one of the best offenses in the league. Marshall has caught 104 and 101 over that same period on spotty offenses and games limited by suspension. I just don't think Jackson's production and potential are high enough to keep him in the top 5 dynasty WRs for PPR. I mean, what is going to change next year that will add 20+ receptions to VJax's total? Because that is what he would need to justify the #5 ranking AND overcome the knucklehead factor IMO. My point here is that Marshall's production has been so good that I'm a lot more willing to deal with the knucklehead factor (even though it's extreme knuckleheadedness as has been mentioned). VJax has not proven that he is 13 slots better than Marshall yet IMO.inzanitee said:
Instinctive
Footballguy
Thoughts on why Santonio Holmes is so low?
az_prof
Footballguy
I have to say it is funny to me that SSOG, also a great football commentator here but also someone who has underrated Marshall from the beginning, is willing to blow the smoke away from VJAX's rap sheet, but he sees a fire burning beneath Marshall's smoke. I can respect someone downgrading a player for having a bad attitude although in my experience that usually is a mistake (people have done the same thing to Moss, TO, Steve Smith, Ochocinco at various points in their careers). If you want to give up present value because you fear future decline in value due to attitude, that makes sense, but I am not satisfied that you two are being consistent in application of the so-called 'knucklehead' factor. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.inzanitee said:
Football Critic
Footballguy
I was watching a segment on ESPN, and Housh was asked who is the best wr in the NFL?His answer --- MARSHALLGreat size and hands, good routes, and can make people miss after the catch.Personally, I think his issues are not big enough to make his value slip at all, especially with the points he consistantly puts up.
PranksterJD
Footballguy
Part of the value-slip, however, is that his issues mean that he's a significantly higher risk of losing those consistent points than other guys are. If the generic wide receiver has a 15% chance of losing his value because of QB or coaching changes, etc., then Marshall has a 30% chance of losing value because the other things still apply... plus at some point he's going to lose another fight against a McDonald's bag.F&L takes a hard line on the inevitability of this meltdown. That may be extreme, but it would be careless of others to act like the possibility doesn't exist.Basically... if you're cool milking Marshall for his great production and then taking a bath on his value when the other shoe drops then he's a great WR to have. But there's always going to be that possibility that he'll drop from that Top 5 ranking to outside the top 50 because he does something **really** stupid, and there aren't many other WRs that have that risk.
EBF
Footballguy
That value drop could come for anyone. Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and Randy Moss are all 30+ years old and ranked ahead of Marshall here. Any one of those guys could lose a step tomorrow and become Torry Holt. F&L has previously said that he places a premium on players with difference maker potential because they can single-handedly elevate a contender into a champion. If he really believes that then I think Marshall should be higher. He has just as much short term potential as anyone listed ahead of him and he's only 26, so his long term upside far exceeds that of guys like Moss and Smith. He's the definition of a difference maker.I do think it's a bit incongruent to rank him this low. As I said before, when I was compiling my preliminary dynasty rankings I had Marshall in the WR4 spot based on his combination of proven elite talent and remaining shelf life. I think it's reasonable to downgrade him slightly because of his off field risk, but anything outside the top 10 seems like a bit of a stretch. The guy is 26 years old coming off three straight 100+ reception seasons. He has been as reliable as any WR in the league over the past three seasons. I don't see any obvious reason to expect anything less for the next 3-4 years.That said, these are personal rankings. Everyone has their pet players that they overrate and their hated players that they avoid because they exaggerate the downside. Most people can agree on the top 3-4 dynasty WRs, but anything beyond that is a matter of personal taste. I think you could practically swap any of the names in the third tier into any spot in the second tier and make a reasonable argument justifying why they should be there. I know that I value guys like Holmes, Crabtree, and Jennings a little bit higher than the consensus. I wouldn't expect everyone to agree with me.
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SSOG
Moderator
FWIW, I wasn't blowing the smoke away from VJax's rap sheet. I actually wasn't offering any opinion on the subject one way or another. You asked why F&L didn't consider VJax a knucklehead. F&L posted his reasons. You then asked again why F&L didn't consider VJax a knucklehead, so I reposted his reasons. Those weren't my reasons, those were just the reasons F&L had already given.Since you asked, though, I don't consider VJax a knucklehead, either. Part of the reason why is because, whether it's right or wrong (and it's most definitely wrong), there isn't the same social stigma against driving drunk that there is against domestic violence. In 2006, 1 out of every 139 licensed drivers was arrested for drunk driving- and this is just the people who get arrested. If the people I know are any indication, the guys getting arrested are just a fraction of the population driving drunk. I'm not saying that I don't think drunk driving is a big deal- quite the opposite, a good friend of mine in high school was orphaned by a drunk driver. I'm saying that society as a whole doesn't think that drunk driving is a big deal. A huge percentage of people that I know have driven while over the legal limit at least twice in their life. VJax has been caught twice. Is it a big deal? Absolutely- like I said, I'm as anti drunk driving as you'll find. With that said, I don't think it's an indicator of any major red flags going forward. An alcohol problem? Yeah, that'd be a major red flag... but if he's not an alcoholic, if he's just a guy who has made two monumentally bad decisions, then that doesn't make him a knucklehead.
I guess that's the key difference to me. Vincent Jackson is a guy who has made at least two bad decisions- the same bad decision that at least 50% of the people that I know have made and thought nothing of. Brandon Marshall is a guy with a massive pattern of knuckleheaded behavior that extends back over many, many years and reaches through to all walks of his life.
I was actually willing to cut Marshall some slack once upon a time. Back when all of his domestic disputes were with the same woman, I actually posted on the forums that I was perfectly willing to ignore all of the domestic incidents because it's possible that they were just the result of a toxic relationship. That benefit of the doubt disappeared in a puff of smoke (pun intended) when Marshall ended the relationship, started a new "healthy" relationship, and promised to change... and then wound up getting brought in six months later on domestic charges with his new girlfriend. After that, the toxic relationship excuse was gone and everything was back on the table.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Crabtree had several drop passes in his rookie season that most fans seem to overlook. San Francisco seems intent on rehabilitating Alex Smith. This might work or it could set them back futher than a team that is actively looking to draft a QB. I can tell you that I won't be buying him at his current price. Instead, I like to get a young player like Louis Murphy especially at F&L bargin basement price.
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EBF
Footballguy
He's going to be a good WR. Is he a good buy? That's a different question. The problem with Crabtree is that awareness of him has been high for two years, so his price tag has always been lofty. The people who own him either drafted him in the top 2-3 picks of their rookie draft or took him obscenely early in a startup draft. I wouldn't expect these people to sell him for anything less than a star player since they spent so much to acquire him in the first place (and he's done nothing to dissuade their optimism). I think he's the best WR in the rookie class for FF purposes. I think he would be a great WR2 for a dynasty team. He's a little bit of a stretch as a WR1, but he could certainly justify it. I don't think there's much bust risk and his upside is fairly high. He's a great player to own right now.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Anyone have a specific insight on Hakeem Nicks? I did not get a chance to see him play this year but loved him out of college.
SSOG
Moderator
He looks to me like the best WR on the Giants, for whatever that's worth.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Can we please clear this up once and for all to get past the confusion:
"Knucklehead" is not limited to "broke the law." Not even close.
I posted the clarification on page one, so I don't really want to go over it again. I don't consider V-Jax a knucklehead because he's a great teammate, is coachable, has a nice overall perspective/grasp on reality, hasn't made an issue out of his contract, doesn't take plays off, has a high football IQ, is one of the best blocking receivers in the league, has terrific hands, and is reliable.
Marshall is none of those of things. But he is a certifiable knucklehead in the vain of Plaxico Burress.
If you guys would prefer your own definitions of knucklehead, go for it. As I stated in the original Rotoworld article, I understand dissenting opinions on Brandon Marshall. If you're fine with a non-nucleus player as your WR1, feel free to move him up your personal rankings. I just don't value his species highly.
"Knucklehead" is not limited to "broke the law." Not even close.
I posted the clarification on page one, so I don't really want to go over it again. I don't consider V-Jax a knucklehead because he's a great teammate, is coachable, has a nice overall perspective/grasp on reality, hasn't made an issue out of his contract, doesn't take plays off, has a high football IQ, is one of the best blocking receivers in the league, has terrific hands, and is reliable.
Marshall is none of those of things. But he is a certifiable knucklehead in the vain of Plaxico Burress.
If you guys would prefer your own definitions of knucklehead, go for it. As I stated in the original Rotoworld article, I understand dissenting opinions on Brandon Marshall. If you're fine with a non-nucleus player as your WR1, feel free to move him up your personal rankings. I just don't value his species highly.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You can wait until somebody goes on record. I learned how to read through the lines a long time ago.
EBF
Footballguy
We're talking about a 22 year old player with probably 8-10 years left in his career. Plenty of time to find a QB.Moreover, he's the type of WR who can excel with a poor QB because his specialty is the short and intermediate game. Witness what Brandon Marshall did with pitiful Kyle Orton forcing lots of short throws to him.
I have Harvin and Nicks on a few of my teams. I don't own Crabtree in any leagues, but I would gladly trade either of them for him. He seems like the safest bet to give you perennial 60+ catch 1000+ yard numbers for the foreseeable future.
Rodeojones
Footballguy
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Any Giant fans get to see this kid in action and have a projection for the future? Does he have the ability to be a top 10 FF WR?
Where would you have him? Can you make a case for him in the top-10? I like Holmes, but between Pittsburgh repeatedly stating they want to be a running team and the fact that they have an abundance of other weapons I can't see him really doing much more than he did this year. Maybe he adds 2-3 TD's, but he's just as likely to come down as he is to go up. I guess I see him up in the Colston/Jennings range, but I have a hard time even coming up with a single reason he should be in tier 2 and I'm assuming "so low" means more than just a spot or two low.
Nicks really impressed me this year, especially since I thought the Giants should have taken Britt instead at the draft. I think Nicks and Smith will complement each other nicely for years to come in what is at least starting to become a bit of a passing offense in my opinion.I think he's rated just right in these rankings. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up having a better career than Harvin or Crabtree, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Steve Smith was the Giants WR to own both present and future.
nlgb1
Footballguy
james jones ranked in the 30s? sorry but jones couldnt hold boldin's jockstrap. cant get separation, very mediocre hands, and no he isnt great after the catch. as ridiculous as it might sound, i think the pack might draft a WR early either this year or next, because i just cant see nelson or jones being a quality successor to driver.
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Instinctive
Footballguy
Here is from page 1:
Now, obviously, I don't have him at #3. I'd move him down to #7 and not mess with the other guys. It was an attempt to highlight his being undervalued.So that's a bit of an overplacement, he's not realllllly top 3 or 5 lol. My hunch is top 5, but here's the case for top 10:1. Pittsburgh is definitely throwing the ball more, and Big Ben is definitely good at it.2. Hines Ward IS getting old. Some point, I bet sooner rather than later, he drops off. He and Derrick Mason can't go forever.3. Santonio is just now entering his 5th season in the league, age 25. That's 10 years of production if he takes great care of his body and route running, 7 if he's average.4. His receptions have steadily increased, sub 50, 50,50, over 50. One could say he is in the mold of a 4th year breakout, and although it is typically a myth spoken of in cheap magazines, many receivers do have a significant bust out in year 3/4 and continue at that pace for a significant time.5. He has the speed to break the deep plays.6. He has put up 8 TDs, in a 13 game campaign, and never had less than this year's 5 when he started in at least half the season's games. So I'd call him a virtual lock for 5 with definite upside. TDs typically come after yards and receptions.So mainly I just think that all the pieces are there. Isn't it worth taking the shot that it all comes together for a long time? Young QB, young receiver, passing more, aging other target...looks great to me.And value-wise, it is especially good. He's cheaper even than where he's at, typically. I've been acquiring him where I can.
stp-d
Footballguy
"if they shoot for a more balanced offense..." LMAO, Reid signed a new contract, expect the same lack of running game as you've seen for years."if maclin, mccoy or celek continue to develop..." They all will develop more which will make double covering DJAX very difficult, which makes a great case for 8-10 TD's a norm, but I so agree the high yardage is hard to continue...
