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CJ Anderson (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JetMaxx
- Start date
jeaton6
Footballguy
I already stated I think he goes for around 160 carries, I don’t see him getting 200. It’s not boggling, though I know you like to use these overblown terms when things go south when you are arguing with people on these boards.FF Ninja said:
Carolina typically averages under 500 rush attempts per year. Last year they went for 526. I will give you the high side and call it 526 even though it’s a stretch this year even though it is 50 more than they averaged the prior 3 years. I see McCaffrey getting the 200 carries you are giving to CJA. I think Cam goes for 110, others go for 50. That leaves 166 for CJA. 38% share is too high IMO on this team.
As for the salary cap implications, teams make it work for players they believe in. Do you think Carolina or PFF know more about Anderson and his abilities than the team that has groomed him since they picked him up as an UDFA 5 years ago? It’s rare to see a 27 yo “quality” starting RB dumped so cheap.
Deep breath, preparing for the forthcoming novella.
Got it. You are a CMC homer. Could've said that from the beginning and saved everyone some time.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
cmac is getting 200 carries. where is this coming from?
pantherclub
Footballguy
The panthers signed him to be the horse. He will get every opportunity to run the ball in a power game. I think he succeeds based on his strengths and what the Cats want to do on offense. He most certainly will out play his draft position. He is a lock for rb2 numbers and will probably be a sneaky rb1 before its all said and done. Rivera is going to give him the ball a ton to set up the vertical game for cam
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Why are so many of you sure CJA is gonna be the workhorse? They drafted a RB 8th overall last year and I know y’all think he’s an undersized RB incapable of running between the tackles but I just don’t think that’s accurate. CJA will get some carries but I think CMC will out-carry him. Of course there’s the Norv factor who could really mess with people.
I just don’t see CJA being quite the factor most of you do. We’ll find out soon enough.
I just don’t see CJA being quite the factor most of you do. We’ll find out soon enough.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I will bet you absolutely anything barring injury CJ surpasses Cmac in carries and its not even close. Cmac wasnt drafted as a 200 carry guy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Yeah but they went and got a back very capable of running between the tackles. I don't see this as an acquisition for depth.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I already laid out where it’s coming from. I mean I guess the two of you think it’s a pretty big leap to think a guy who handled twice the load CJA did in college in both absolute and per game terms (almost 24 carries per game his SO + JR year) could handle 40% of the team carries, I do not.
Before last year CJA had never carried the ball or shown he could carry the ball 200 times in a season without being constantly nicked up and that wasn’t enough to prove to Denver he could be their guy going forward.
CJA is a nice back, but he’s best as the occasional breather guy, or RB on 1st/2nd at times when CMC is split out. 10 carries per game.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Neither did Blount in Philly this time last year. All that was talked about was how he was a horrible fit, plodding old RB that would be cut. Oof
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Do you have any Ethereum or Bitcoin to wager?
E2A: Also, define "it's not even close" because I'd like to leverage that in our wager.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I can easily see this being a pretty close distribution of carries:
CMC: 180+
Anderson: 180+
Newton: 100+
Fozzy: 40
Artis-Payne: 20
In the above scenario, I still CMC being in on more downs and catching many more passes than Anderson. I'd presume CMC to have an increasing role as he matures in this league and I think that will come in the running game. Dude can ball and he's STILL only 21 years old. CJA is a good addition but I honestly cannot see him getting more PT than CMC.
CMC: 180+
Anderson: 180+
Newton: 100+
Fozzy: 40
Artis-Payne: 20
In the above scenario, I still CMC being in on more downs and catching many more passes than Anderson. I'd presume CMC to have an increasing role as he matures in this league and I think that will come in the running game. Dude can ball and he's STILL only 21 years old. CJA is a good addition but I honestly cannot see him getting more PT than CMC.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Its almost as if you know nothing about the Panthers or what they are trying to do.
For starters we are not talking about playing time we are talking about carries. And I doubt his role increases that much more from what he did last year. He is not a physcial pounding back that CJ is and that is what Rivera wants to run. Cmac lines up everywhere so the two will be on the field at the same time. There is simply no way he is going to get 180+ carries. Thats not even remotely in the cards. I am not even sure if you understand what type of running back cmac is or how he was used last year.
The past 3 years a beat up, over the hill, slow Jstew averaged over 200 carries a year, now tell me why you dont think CJ will do that?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
No matter which side you are on, there’s just no way to not factor in how much work Stewart got last year despite being so subpar. It amazed me game after game to see how many touches he kept getting despite how poorly he played. That’s a HC sticking to his guns in spite of the results. Now he’s going to get a RB who is going to fill the same role but be significantly more productive and people expect that same HC to use that RB less? How does that seem logical?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
It isn't logical. But hey, we are talking about the emotion-driven reaction of folks who over-drafted CMac based on a premise that doesn't appear to be holding up to reality.
For the record, I consider myself right in the middle. I don't believe CJA was truly the 6th best back in the NFL last year like PFF's scoring suggests, but I also don't think he's a scrub because injuries and crappy offenses have affected his season totals. Somehow being in the middle has apparently led to the appearance that I'm a superfan in a thread full of people who think he's barely a replacement level RB.
My logic behind why I think CJA will get 13-14 carries per game is that they drafted CMC 8th overall last year and yet still gave a clearly worn out Stewart 13.2 carries per game. They actually gave him 110 carries in the first 8 games, but I'm guessing they scaled that back a little bit in the second half of the season due to his ineffectiveness. I believe they used CMC as they did on purpose and don't plan to overload him this season, either. I also believe that 2018 CJA >> 2017 Stewart. So I'm not saying CJA is great or CMC shouldn't be used between the tackles. I was just looking at last year's usage and talent on their roster.
However, you bring up a good point that I had forgotten. The Norv factor. I firmly believe Norv is way past his time and is at this point a garbage OC. He could definitely throw a wrench in the whole thing. Maybe he'll go with a Mathews/Tolbert split. That wouldn't be all bad for either player - just a redistribution of anticipated touches. Despite Mathews being a vastly more talented player, Tolbert once had 54 receptions and 10 TDs in a 15 game season. I don't think any CJA owners would complain if he caught 3.6 passes per game and got all the goal line work. I'd still lean towards Carolina sticking with what worked last season, but with Norv we really don't know.
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Apologies to all for actually explaining my stance. I know some posters here prefer to just quip something stupid and pointless in one line, but I prefer to show my work. I guess reading is hard for some people so 2-3 paragraphs are akin to a novella to them.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
So do you want to wager some Ethereum or Bitcoin or are you just here to pound your chest and point fingers as if you’re the only one who knows football? Obviously we disagree which is why YOU threw out the idea of a bet. Now it’s time for you to #### or get off the pot!
pantherclub
Footballguy
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Enter Elijah Hood
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would bet the under for carries if it were 180, but the fact you think it’s unfathomable for McCaffrey to get 4 more carries per game than he got last year is pretty comical. We’re talking 11 carries per game. That’s not that crazy.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I feel more comfortable with projecting 150 rushing attempts and 115 targets for McCaffrey in 2018 which is a modest increase in rushing attempts and staying the same for targets as last season (already exceptionally high for a RB) but I certainly think its possible that he could run the ball more times that that.
I just feel more comfortable with the conservative projection of 150. I do expect his yards per carry to improve to at least average (4.2) and I could see his yards per reception going up a bit although this was already above average for a RB at 8.1 which is impressive considering the high volume.
I have always thought McCaffrey was going to be similar to Reggie Bush (sans injuries until those happen) who did have a pretty similar rookie season as McCaffreys.
RB historically tend to have their best seasons in years 2-6 of their careers. If they are good they tend to improve in their second season unless they were already pretty much maxed out in their rookie seasons, which happens some times, but usually not. I accept that my guess is conservative as McCaffrey could get a lot more opportunity than this if he does improve a lot in his 2nd season. If that happens it will take a big chunk of Andersons opportunity.
While I could see CJ Anderson fully replacing Stewarts opportunities I would project him more conservatively as well. Last season was he first and only time he has had more than 200 rushing attempts in a season at the college or pro level. With him being 27 years old now going into the 6th season of his career, jettisoned by the Broncos and now with a new team I don't see why I should expect him to have 200 or more rushing attempts this season.
At this moment I would project 180 rushing attempts for Anderson and 20 targets with McCaffrey having 150 rushing attempts 115 targets Cam Newton with 120 rushing attempts and there is still another 40 rushing attempts (based on the 3 year average) for other players or perhaps a part of those going to McCaffrey or Anderson. These numbers are what I would say the median projection would be. If you do an upside and downside projection from that then you are adding 50 rushing attempts for CmC (at the expensive of Anderson) or 20 rushing attempts for Anderson (at the expense of CmC) then the same thing for the downside, 100 rushing attempts for CmC (with 50 added to Anderson) I could see CmC having more targets in the passing game such as 130 for the upside there and 100 being the downside. I do not see Anderson having much more or less than 20 targets in the passing game unless CmC is injured for a lot of games.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
dynastyleaguefootball) In his Grill Bill segment, Panthers' blogger Bill Voth says C.J. Anderson was the best addition for the Panthers this off-season
Analysis: We agree! Carolina's front office seems particularly smitten with their new inside runner and Anderson is fresh off his first 1,000 yard (1,007) campaign, though he only scored three touchdowns on the ground. While not known for his hands out of the backfield, he did secure 28 receptions and another touchdown. At only 27 years of age, Anderson should still have a lot remaining in the tank but has only one year (2017) in which he played all 16 games. Taking over for the departed Jonathan Stewart came with virtually no fanfare but he's primed for material snaps in a system that features the running game. While all dynasty focus will remain on sophomore Christian McCaffrey, savvy dynasty coaches should be able to acquire Anderson on the cheap as a potential last-flex weekly play. On DLF's dynasty running back rankings, Anderson can be found as the RB41 and his ADP (118) is coming off a three-year low showing that there's a lot of sleeper potential available should his carries pan out as expected.
Analysis: We agree! Carolina's front office seems particularly smitten with their new inside runner and Anderson is fresh off his first 1,000 yard (1,007) campaign, though he only scored three touchdowns on the ground. While not known for his hands out of the backfield, he did secure 28 receptions and another touchdown. At only 27 years of age, Anderson should still have a lot remaining in the tank but has only one year (2017) in which he played all 16 games. Taking over for the departed Jonathan Stewart came with virtually no fanfare but he's primed for material snaps in a system that features the running game. While all dynasty focus will remain on sophomore Christian McCaffrey, savvy dynasty coaches should be able to acquire Anderson on the cheap as a potential last-flex weekly play. On DLF's dynasty running back rankings, Anderson can be found as the RB41 and his ADP (118) is coming off a three-year low showing that there's a lot of sleeper potential available should his carries pan out as expected.
I really dont get how CJA is ranked as low as #41. He is a proven back coming off his best season, high rated by PFF, now in a system that has a history of running RBBC where both backs are fantasy relevant, only a single competitor for touches and that competitor does not profile as a workhorse back so the RBBC is here to stay.
Over the last four years Jonathan Stewart in his age 27,28,29, and 30 seasons averaged 825 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 21 receptions for 98 yards and 1 TD. (This was also Stewart's 7,8,9, & 10 NFL seasons. That's RB23 standard scoring or RB27 in PPR. I find those numbers to be solid projections for CJA... who is also entering his age 27 season, but only his 6th NFL season, yet he is ranked 14-18 spots lower than that.
Over the last four years Jonathan Stewart in his age 27,28,29, and 30 seasons averaged 825 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 21 receptions for 98 yards and 1 TD. (This was also Stewart's 7,8,9, & 10 NFL seasons. That's RB23 standard scoring or RB27 in PPR. I find those numbers to be solid projections for CJA... who is also entering his age 27 season, but only his 6th NFL season, yet he is ranked 14-18 spots lower than that.
JackReacher
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Tanner9919
Footballguy
value pick
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Any recent trades? Trying to gauge his value
thecardiackid
Footballguy
How we feelin about CJ heading into week one?
Not starting him, but im optimistic he will be involved. Maybe 8 or 10 touches and 60 yds. And maybe he turns into the short yardage / GL guy.
Not starting him, but im optimistic he will be involved. Maybe 8 or 10 touches and 60 yds. And maybe he turns into the short yardage / GL guy.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I honestly have no idea. We know he can be a contributor, but all of the talk about leveraging CMC all over the field and in all different situations makes his usage one of the bigger questions marks to me out of all RB2s.
I can definitely see him being brought in on GL/short yardage, but I would think the variance of his forecasted touches is huge. Gun to my head, 6 for 20 with a 15% shot at a TD?
jeaton6
Footballguy
So where are we at here? All the 200+ CJA carry guys haven’t been by for a visit in a while.
CJA “the workhorse” pace: 64 carries, 69 touches.
CMAC “the small, unable to carry the load guy” pace: 245 carries, 362 touches.
But, but neither guy is carrying the ball much and they are going to make a point of getting CJA more involved, right guys?
So much for CJA “the 200 carry lock” Anderson.
ETA: Realized I posted this in CMC thread but all the CJA/CMC debate was here. Perhaps I’ll get some Crow Eaters to come here.
CJA “the workhorse” pace: 64 carries, 69 touches.
CMAC “the small, unable to carry the load guy” pace: 245 carries, 362 touches.
But, but neither guy is carrying the ball much and they are going to make a point of getting CJA more involved, right guys?
So much for CJA “the 200 carry lock” Anderson.
ETA: Realized I posted this in CMC thread but all the CJA/CMC debate was here. Perhaps I’ll get some Crow Eaters to come here.
jeaton6
Footballguy
All he is good for. Notice all the “thruthers” and blowhards that were convinced he was going to get 200 carries that said others were “dreaming” or “CMC Homers” if they believed CMC would get 200+ this year no longer show up here.
jm192
Footballguy
I was super high on CMC in the pre-season, couldn't pry him away in my dynasty league. Figure you get solid value if he goes down. I've got CMC in several re-draft leagues.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Cut by CAR today
As a stubborn CJA owner in dynasty, all I can do is say “Thank goodness!”
As a stubborn CJA owner in dynasty, all I can do is say “Thank goodness!”
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Gopher State
Footballguy
Time for CJA to retire
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Whoa.
CalBear
Footballguy
CJ Anderson is not "svelte" but he's still an effective back. Getting cut is an upgrade since he was getting less than 3 carries per game in Carolina. Someone will pick him up.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Any possible landing spots?
Tampa? I’d like to think he’s an upgrade on Barber.
Bills? No Ivory, insurance behind shady?
Tampa? I’d like to think he’s an upgrade on Barber.
Bills? No Ivory, insurance behind shady?
georg013
Footballguy
Love this post. New to the thread but some of the dumb dumbs in here were really on a good one. Jesus Christ. Was it complete roster bias or just plain ignorance? You decide since it’s unlikely any of them comes back to own it. I know I wouldn’t. Sheesh.So where are we at here? All the 200+ CJA carry guys haven’t been by for a visit in a while.
CJA “the workhorse” pace: 64 carries, 69 touches.
CMAC “the small, unable to carry the load guy” pace: 245 carries, 362 touches.
But, but neither guy is carrying the ball much and they are going to make a point of getting CJA more involved, right guys?
So much for CJA “the 200 carry lock” Anderson.
ETA: Realized I posted this in CMC thread but all the CJA/CMC debate was here. Perhaps I’ll get some Crow Eaters to come here.
CalBear
Footballguy
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I haven’t been invested in any way ... just think it’s weird that you “loved” this post from late September.
Sheesh.
