CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Seems like this could be a big year for Spiller in dynasty and redraft leagues. Looking at the list of RBs in both formats, he is one of the few options routinely available outside the top 15-20 who has obvious difference-maker potential.

He was a top 10 RB in the second half of last season and averaged an impressive 5.2 YPC for the year. He has first round talent and elite speed. He can also catch passes out of the backfield, making him a dangerous player in PPR formats.

On the other hand, he is already 25 years old and still seemingly stuck behind Fred Jackson. For a player whose game is predicated on speed and explosiveness, the window of peak years is probably a little smaller. So in some respects it's now or never for Spiller. If he is on the cusp of FF superstardom, this could be your last chance to acquire him without breaking the bank. But if you pay market value and he never takes the next step, you'll be kicking yourself.

So what do you think? Are you buying CJ Spiller in redraft and dynasty?

 

[Run It Up]

Fjax scraps.

125/500/2

30 Rec/180/1

Hard to roster someone you cant afford as a handcuff and will ride your bench all season if Fjax doesnt get hurt.

 

[msommer]

RBBC this year unless injury hits either. Next would depend on the structure of Fred Jacksons contract (assuming CJ Spiller performs).

150/700/4 - 42/300/3

 

[zamboni]

Spiller brings a lot to the table, and is faster and more elusive than Fred. That said, Fred is a big time player in all facets of the game, and will still likely be the lead guy.

Spiller will assuredly spell Fred from time to time to keep the latter fresh, but if Spiller doesn't hold onto the ball like the last game, he's going to lose touches.

Next year I think will be Spiller's time, sooner if the Bills fall out of contention and they want to give Spiller more opportunities.

 

[Tanner9919]

wouldn't touch Spiller..he's clearly not as talented as Fred Jackson, otherwise he would've kept FJ on the sidelines in preseason...you're paying a high price for a roster spot for a backup RB who *might* make it to the starting lineup this season, but needs an injury to make it there.If I'm picking a backup RB based on the word 'IF' I'm picking Ben Tate..'if' Foster gets hurt, I've got a top 5 RB, Tate, in a top 5 offense..

 

[Hendo]

I love the talent and situation, however i do not think FJax will go away anytime soon... he looked fantastic last season. I dont see Spiller getting much a chance unless injury to Fred.

 

[Banger]

He's certainly someone that has the tools to breakout. Who saw McFadden two years ago? High draft pick, talented, showed flashes, had some injuries and all of the sudden he's a force. I can't say I'm confident that he'll break out but I can say that he's pretty low risk for good potential upside.

 

[steveski]

I grabbed him in the 7th round last night as there really wasn't much left at RB. I have hopes of him filling in as a quality flex player. I believe I read an article somewhere on here that said the Bills are going to try to do more with Spiller. He's obviously not going to take over FJax's spot as the workhorse RB, but they may put him out as WR occasionally or design some special plays with him. Yes, he was pretty bad until FJax went down, but I think the Bills saw what Spiller can do now and will specifically design plays for him. They didn't really know how to use him before.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im buying in all formats

Spiller showed what he can do, fredydjax is a 31 year old incumbent coming off a busted leg.

probably be a murky committee to start the season, I think Spiller's talent wins out eventually

 

[GroveDiesel]

Spiller brings a lot to the table, and is faster and more elusive than Fred. That said, Fred is a big time player in all facets of the game, and will still likely be the lead guy.

I think there's a misconception about Jackson being strictly a power runner. He's powerful, but also extremely elusive. He makes guys miss all the time. In fact, according to PFF's Elusiveness Rating, he's been the second most elusive RB in the NFL over the last 3 years and has actually forced the most missed tackles in the league over the span.Spiller does have more speed and is more of a homerun threat, but even there Jackson is no slouch. Last year he had 12 plays over 20 yards. Jackson really is an all around complete back.

 

[zamboni]

Spiller brings a lot to the table, and is faster and more elusive than Fred. That said, Fred is a big time player in all facets of the game, and will still likely be the lead guy.

I think there's a misconception about Jackson being strictly a power runner. He's powerful, but also extremely elusive. He makes guys miss all the time. In fact, according to PFF's Elusiveness Rating, he's been the second most elusive RB in the NFL over the last 3 years and has actually forced the most missed tackles in the league over the span.Spiller does have more speed and is more of a homerun threat, but even there Jackson is no slouch. Last year he had 12 plays over 20 yards. Jackson really is an all around complete back.

Agreed - I didn't mean to imply that Fred wasn't elusive, just that Spiller is even faster and probably a bit more elusive. But as mentioned, Fred is a complete player in all facets.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Spiller will likely break out this year, as I just traded him for J Stewart last night.

In seriousness, Spiller did well last year when given an opportunity. That said, with Freddie back, how many touches will he get this year? The coaches had a clear preference for Fred last season when both were healthy....how much does that dynamic change this year? Is he the type of RB who could carry a full load over a season?

 

[Monk81]

It's possible that this is Spiller's year to break out but it may be another year before he becomes a star. Or it may never happen. I get the sense Spiller is still learning how to play RB. He was able to overwhelm people in the ACC through sheer speed and quickness so I'm not really sure he picked up as much as he should on the nuts and bolts of reading blocks and making people miss in heavy traffic.

I have Spiller on my team FWIW but I'm not counting on him.

 

[Goat Herders]

Im buying in all formatsSpiller showed what he can do, fredydjax is a 31 year old incumbent coming off a busted leg.probably be a murky committee to start the season, I think Spiller's talent wins out eventually

As has been pointed out before, Jackson has 150 more career carries than Arian foster, 150 fewer carries than ray rice and 600 fewer than Mjd. He's 31, but he hasn't been used a ton in the nfl yet.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

On the other hand, he is already 25 years old and still seemingly stuck behind Fred Jackson. For a player whose game is predicated on speed and explosiveness, the window of peak years is probably a little smaller. So in some respects it's now or never for Spiller. If he is on the cusp of FF superstardom, this could be your last chance to acquire him without breaking the bank. But if you pay market value and he never takes the next step, you'll be kicking yourself.So what do you think? Are you buying CJ Spiller in redraft and dynasty?

This year is now or never for Spiller? Already 25? He's got a good five (or more, he's not a contact runner) years of career left and Jackson is 31. Chances are really, really good that Spiller is getting the lion's share by sometime in 2013 at the latest.As far as talent, he has the pedigree, and looked the part last year. There's absolutely zero shame in not putting Fred Jackson on the bench. Jackson's really a very good RB - he sent Lynch packing and was straight up dominant last year prior to the injury.Bottom line - dynasty-wise, I'd buy, but his owners aren't selling in any of my leagues. Redraft, he's high-upside handcuff level, as it's likely still primarily Jackson's job for another year.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I will say that one huge positive for Spiller is that Gailey has commented a few times about how excited he is that Spiller finally put it all together and figured out how to pass block. Not being able to pass block means less playing time in the NFL. Now that the Bills can trust him to not get Fitzpatrick killed, he may see an increase in carries.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im buying in all formatsSpiller showed what he can do, fredydjax is a 31 year old incumbent coming off a busted leg.probably be a murky committee to start the season, I think Spiller's talent wins out eventually

As has been pointed out before, Jackson has 150 more career carries than Arian foster, 150 fewer carries than ray rice and 600 fewer than Mjd. He's 31, but he hasn't been used a ton in the nfl yet.

It's a young man's game COlin

 

[AngryPatriot]

This is a tough one to call. I'm in the Fred Jackson is still the man camp, Spiller is tough to draft but a nice sneaky pickup in the late rounds or as a handcuff. Obviously more value in a dynasty.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I absolutely agree that it is difficult to determine his value. And here's why: he hasn't had a true chance yet.

Think about it. He came into the league in 2010. However, if you recall, he did not sign right away - which meant missed time/practice/etc. In addition, it was a crowded backfield that season (F.Jackson, M.Lynch). Finally, he had a hamstring issue that season. Given the way F.Jax was playing and CJ's hamstring - he never had a single game with double digit carries. So what do we know about CJ after his rookie 2010 season? Not much, so let's move on to 2011.

In 2011, everyone was missing time, practices, workouts, etc. There was a league-wide lockout. So CJ finally had a chance to see all of preseason (unlike season before when he hadn't signed til about a week into August). But never got that chance to gel with o-line, get comfy with qb, and get in a full preseason of weights, practice. So going into last year, F.Jackson was the starting RB. F.Jax started out so ridiculously well - that they did not need to go to CJ early. (And when I say ridiculously well - through week 10, F.Jax's LOWEST total combined yards was 98. And the week he put up 98, he also had a TD and 5 receptions. His average through week 10 was actually just over 145 yards.) Needless to say, if you were the coach and FJ was doing that, how many carries would you have given CJ? CJ was seeing games with the following carry totals: 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, and 5 (not in that order). So yet again - lack of opportunity. But FJ then got hurt. So let's move on to what happened when CJ finally got the ball.

Weeks 12-17, 6 games, CJ put up: 86-446-3 (5.2 ypc during that stretch); 24-205-2.

So his combined totals were 651 yards and 5 TDs in 6 games.

So I have no idea what to make of him. He seems like the talent is there...but it is on a small sample size. He finally had a full preseason (which in his only 2 previous seasons he hadn't had)...but F.Jackson, who looked great last year, is back from injury. F.Jackson is 31 years old (usually decline in production for RBs at that age)...but FJ does not have typical 31 yr old wear and tear on him (5 seasons, under 1000 total carries - actually under 1000 total touches between carries and receptions).

You need that great talent that you can get late to help you win a league. Newton, Cruz, Nelson, Gronk, Graham - were all taken mid-draft, late, or not at all last yr (depending on which guy we are talking about). And those 5 put up absolutely studly numbers. So while I wouldn't take CJ early, I would grab him if he fell to a place where you felt comfortable taking that chance (ie, you already have 3 solid RBs, you aren't hurting anywhere else, etc). He is the type of guy that I could see being on that list next yr - ie, the guy you can possibly get in the 8th or even 9th round - but performs like a top 15 RB. But if FJ continues where he left off, I can just as easily see CJ being outside the top 30. He is one of those risk/reward picks.

 

[rickyg]

I am hoping to see a 60-40 split in caries bw fja and spiller to start the season and as TE season wears on perhaps a full blown rbbc. That's the only way spiller will be useful as a flex player. I also drafted him in the 7th or 8th round in redraft based on that hope. But rt after the draft I read an article that suggested that spiller once again will be nothing more than a backup to fjax who will be featured. If that happens he is nothing more than a bench stash until the 2nd half of the season when hopefully fjax wears down (y 31 yrs old very probable).

I think spillers BEST chance ate king a fantasy impact for 2012 will once again be I the latter part of the season which means if you drafted him you just have to stash and hold. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As has been pointed out before, Jackson has 150 more career carries than Arian foster, 150 fewer carries than ray rice and 600 fewer than Mjd. He's 31, but he hasn't been used a ton in the nfl yet.

Age >>> workload in determining when a player's performance is going to decline. Also, Jackson logged more than 700 professional carries in the arena leagues and NFL Europe prior to his arrival in Buffalo. I love Jackson as a player, but his days of being featured aren't going to last forever.

 

[zed2283]

I own F.Jackson and in the offseason I traded V.Jackson + 1.8 for Spiller + 1.12. So I'm buying in dynasty, but of course I had a little extra reason to. I think Spiller will get good use this year and probably take over by 2014.

 

[strong]

Im buying in all formatsSpiller showed what he can do, fredydjax is a 31 year old incumbent coming off a busted leg.probably be a murky committee to start the season, I think Spiller's talent wins out eventually

As has been pointed out before, Jackson has 150 more career carries than Arian foster, 150 fewer carries than ray rice and 600 fewer than Mjd. He's 31, but he hasn't been used a ton in the nfl yet.

He wasn't just sitting on the couch in his years before the NFL. I looked it up somewhere, and he had a ton of carries in college and other professional leagues before he made it to the NFL.

 

[strong]

One of the biggest factors in Spiller's playing time is Fred Jackson's AMAZING pass protection. The dude is a beast. Spiller, according to the coach, has improved in this area, but it's tough for a backup RB to get much playing time when you're not nearly as good at protecting the QB as the starter is.

This also knocks Spiller's dynasty value, too. Even as Fred Jackson slows down the next few years and becomes a less effective runner, I still see him getting the majority of the snaps because of his insane pass protection skills. If I was a coach, I'd be willing to drop a few points on YPC if it means keeping the quarterback on his feet.

 

[zamboni]

Im buying in all formatsSpiller showed what he can do, fredydjax is a 31 year old incumbent coming off a busted leg.probably be a murky committee to start the season, I think Spiller's talent wins out eventually

As has been pointed out before, Jackson has 150 more career carries than Arian foster, 150 fewer carries than ray rice and 600 fewer than Mjd. He's 31, but he hasn't been used a ton in the nfl yet.

He wasn't just sitting on the couch in his years before the NFL. I looked it up somewhere, and he had a ton of carries in college and other professional leagues before he made it to the NFL.

While true, I don't hear people decrying the work loads of McGahee, S-Jax, and the like, who have had just as great - if not greater usage.

 

[Tau837]

Good thread, good discussion.

I would buy at the right price, but I can't get that price in my leagues...

 

[dickey moe]

Love him as a Flex.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think handcuffing Spiller is really good move. FJax is a top 12 back, if he goes down,Spiller showed last year he can be just as good. I might not draft him as high as he might go because chances are in 2 or 3 weeks his owner will want a roster spot that he can start and Spiller can acquired for cheaper in a trade.

 

[DocHolliday]

I think handcuffing Spiller is really good move. FJax is a top 12 back, if he goes down,Spiller showed last year he can be just as good. I might not draft him as high as he might go because chances are in 2 or 3 weeks his owner will want a roster spot that he can start and Spiller can acquired for cheaper in a trade.

Makes sense.

 

[Goat Herders]

I am hoping to see a 60-40 split in caries bw fja and spiller to start the season and as TE season wears on perhaps a full blown rbbc. That's the only way spiller will be useful as a flex player. I also drafted him in the 7th or 8th round in redraft based on that hope. But rt after the draft I read an article that suggested that spiller once again will be nothing more than a backup to fjax who will be featured. If that happens he is nothing more than a bench stash until the 2nd half of the season when hopefully fjax wears down (y 31 yrs old very probable). I think spillers BEST chance ate king a fantasy impact for 2012 will once again be I the latter part of the season which means if you drafted him you just have to stash and hold. I hope I'm wrong.

I think most folks would consider a 60/40 split to be the epitome of rbbc.

 

[Joe Summer]

The verdict is that he sucks. He's terrible. He's a complete bust. Hasn't shown anything of value since he came into the league.

He's not even worth a handcuff. If Jackson gets injured, the job will eventually go to another RB besides Spiller.

 

[Shutout]

Fjax scraps.125/500/230 Rec/180/1Hard to roster someone you cant afford as a handcuff and will ride your bench all season if Fjax doesnt get hurt.

Agree. He has Ben Tate syndrome in that regard. Very expensive and its clear that he's the #2 on the team.

 

[steveski]

The verdict is that he sucks. He's terrible. He's a complete bust. Hasn't shown anything of value since he came into the league.He's not even worth a handcuff. If Jackson gets injured, the job will eventually go to another RB besides Spiller.

Did you not watch football last year?

 

[Shutout]

As has been pointed out before, Jackson has 150 more career carries than Arian foster, 150 fewer carries than ray rice and 600 fewer than Mjd. He's 31, but he hasn't been used a ton in the nfl yet.

Age >>> workload in determining when a player's performance is going to decline. Also, Jackson logged more than 700 professional carries in the arena leagues and NFL Europe prior to his arrival in Buffalo. I love Jackson as a player, but his days of being featured aren't going to last forever.

Agree. I think the wall maybe coming up fast. Until that time, Spiller is in limbo but you do have to account for age in this scenario.

 

[LHUCKS]

I like him if I can get him late enough. He's been going kind of early so he wont see many of my rosters.

Fred Jackson is no spring chicken and Spiller turned the corner last year.

A lot to like, but needs to be the right price.

 

[squistion]

On the other hand, he is already 25 years old and still seemingly stuck behind Fred Jackson. For a player whose game is predicated on speed and explosiveness, the window of peak years is probably a little smaller. So in some respects it's now or never for Spiller. If he is on the cusp of FF superstardom, this could be your last chance to acquire him without breaking the bank. But if you pay market value and he never takes the next step, you'll be kicking yourself.

So what do you think? Are you buying CJ Spiller in redraft and dynasty?

This year is now or never for Spiller? Already 25? He's got a good five (or more, he's not a contact runner) years of career left and Jackson is 31. Chances are really, really good that Spiller is getting the lion's share by sometime in 2013 at the latest.As far as talent, he has the pedigree, and looked the part last year. There's absolutely zero shame in not putting Fred Jackson on the bench. Jackson's really a very good RB - he sent Lynch packing and was straight up dominant last year prior to the injury.

Bottom line - dynasty-wise, I'd buy, but his owners aren't selling in any of my leagues. Redraft, he's high-upside handcuff level, as it's likely still primarily Jackson's job for another year.

For EBF 26 is the age that RBs start the downward spiral on the toboggon. In fact Foster and Forte were both on his "sell" list a few week back and it seemed mainly because of their age. And he had this to say about Forte.

Doesn't change the fact that he's a 26 year old RB whose trade value will drop precipitously over the next 2 years.

 

[moleculo]

counting indoor football, Europe, and NFL, Fred Jackson has 1524 career carries and 276 career receptions.

2004 Bandits

2005 Bandits

2006 Fire

for comparison:

Ray Rice: 959, 250

Willis McGahee 1790, 176

Steven Jackson: 2138, 369

 

[moleculo]

Fred Jackson is a "reverse handcuff". He will be fine for a while, but Spiller is the one you really want, IMO.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Think we are a year too early for Fred to further decline and Spiller to transition to 50/50 or full time.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I sold Spiller in a non-ppr contract dynasty league. He had a 3 yr contract, but would only start for me if Fred Jackson got injured. My reasoning was that Spiller would be no better than a committee back for two years, so I was only giving up one year of projected starter value.

In my no contract PPR dynasty, I drafted Spiller and am holding him. I traded a couple of RBs (R.Bush and Starks) for a WR a couple of months ago with the intention of using Spiller as my RB3BC. I have no problem holding him in PPR, but I wouldn't want to rely on him to start for me.

Redraft he is not startable, just a handcuff.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The verdict is that he sucks. He's terrible. He's a complete bust. Hasn't shown anything of value since he came into the league.He's not even worth a handcuff. If Jackson gets injured, the job will eventually go to another RB besides Spiller.

 

[matttyl]

Call me crazy, but in a 12 team or larger league, why not draft both with the intention of starting both each week, especially in a PPR?

Last year the two combined for 1,500 rushing, 700 receiving on 78 receptions, and 12 total TDs....but did so in only 26 total combined games. That's roughly 85 total yards, 3 catches, and half a TD each per game. This year the coaching staff it talking about using Spiller more, possibly even out wide. These two might combine for 3,000 total yards, 120+ catches and 18+ TDs this year.

Also, in the kick and punt return thread, Spiller is listed as the #1 punt returner....McKelvin isn't listed at all?!

 

[VaTerp]

The F-Jax/Spiller situation is a tough one to read.

There is talk of using Spiller more, his improvement in pass protection, and he obviously has big play ability.

On the other hand, you look at the fact that he registered just 36 total touches in the 11 games where F-Jax was healthy. F-Jax had 209 touches during that same span. Amazing to me that a first round pick in his 2nd year only gets 3 touches a game regardless of who is in front of them.

So while we all know that Spiller's workload will increase this year, the question is how much if both he and F-jax remain healthy. Will it be enough to make Spiller a viable option as a flex play? Will it eat into F-jax numbers enough to seriously downgrade his value? Lots of questions that I don't have a good read on one way or the other yet.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Last year the two combined for 1,500 rushing, 700 receiving on 78 receptions, and 12 total TDs....but did so in only 26 total combined games. That's roughly 85 total yards, 3 catches, and half a TD each per game. This year the coaching staff it talking about using Spiller more, possibly even out wide. These two might combine for 3,000 total yards, 120+ catches and 18+ TDs this year.

Uhhh.... no. Those numbers would be at or near the top historically for an NFL RB tandem. Neither the Bills as an offense nor Jackson / Spiller as players are capable of that type of production.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Call me crazy, but in a 12 team or larger league, why not draft both with the intention of starting both each week, especially in a PPR?

Last year the two combined for 1,500 rushing, 700 receiving on 78 receptions, and 12 total TDs....but did so in only 26 total combined games. That's roughly 85 total yards, 3 catches, and half a TD each per game. This year the coaching staff it talking about using Spiller more, possibly even out wide. These two might combine for 3,000 total yards, 120+ catches and 18+ TDs this year.

Also, in the kick and punt return thread, Spiller is listed as the #1 punt returner....McKelvin isn't listed at all?!

The coaching staff started out using Spiller as a wideout last year too. I realize it's great to see your guy get on the field....but as a Spiller owner last year, this scared the hell out of me. Do you really want your future "stud RB" to be thought of as a stopgap at WR???

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Fred Jackson is a "reverse handcuff". He will be fine for a while, but Spiller is the one you really want, IMO.

this is just wrong and makes very little sense to me. I don't understand how anyone who saw what Fred Jackson did last year could believe this.Fred Jackson is the guy to get. Spiller won't be startable unless Jackson gets injured.Spiller is a nice player, but Jackson is superior in almost every way.

 

[moderated]

Jackson will start, but Spiller will be used for 12-17 touches even with Fred healthy. If Fred gets hurt Spiller is a top 10 FF RB.

31 is 31, all this talk about a fresh 31 is laughable. In the 30's bodies don't heal as fast and get injured more easily.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Jackson will start, but Spiller will be used for 12-17 touches even with Fred healthy. If Fred gets hurt Spiller is a top 10 FF RB.31 is 31, all this talk about a fresh 31 is laughable. In the 30's bodies don't heal as fast and get injured more easily.

Do most RBs fall off a cliff at age 31 after leading the league in yards per carry the year before?1 year takes him from being a top-5 RB to an injury prone bust simply because his body won't heal as fast?the only reason people can get Jackson in the 3rd or 4th round this year is because of his age and the fact that some people think Spiller is a real threat to him. That's already factored into the price and makes Jackson a bargain.Spiller is one of the better backups to get, but he'll need Jackson to get hurt to emerge. Otherwise, you're most likely looking at 5 to 10 touches per week for him, IMO.

 

[socrates]

For dynasty leaguers, Spiller is a buy, but his price is up at the moment. If Jackson relegates Spiller to the bench, as I expect him to do, Spiller's value will take a downward turn, and an impatient owner may unload him for less than he is likely asking now.

I picked him up at a discount early last season, myself, as I have also done with the likes of McFadden and Mathews in the past.

Buy low, and generally, unless a player is injured or holding out, this is not the time to buy.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

probably be a murky committee to start the season

no it won't. this is fred's team. they fell apart when he went down last year.