Here's some interesting thoughts regarding trading, albeit from a Fantasy Baseball Perspective, of which the concepts I have found to be successful....credit to Razzball.com
Fantasy Baseball AlphaTrading – Lesson #1
July 20, 2009 By: Diamond, The Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist Category: Diamond, The Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist 46 Comments →
Diamond is widely acknowledged as the most successful Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist in the world – applying the methods of female seduction to the art of winning fantasy baseball league championships. He travels cyberspace with his wing Saber, teaching those who play fantasy baseball how to be fantasy baseball players.
I don’t spend my days perusing the latest fantasy news. I don’t spend my hard-earned money on the MLB package or pore through box scores like a Kabbalah follower. I am not one of those ‘web experts’ that spouts advice from within the friendly confines of their mom’s basement or a Connecticut cubicle.
So who am I and why am I posting on Razzball? Remember that trade you made last year that blew up in your face? I’m the guy advising your trade partner.
He likely attended one of the many seminars I run across the country where I impart wisdom to my Fantasy Pickup Artists-in-Training via small group sessions. And the question I get more than any other during my seminars: “Diamond, can you teach me how to be an Alpha Trader?” For your knowledge, an Alpha Trader is what we call a Fantasy Baseball Pick-Up Artist who can seduce another participant into making a trade that is more beneficial to your team’s needs than their own.
You may be thinking, “I believe a trade should help both teams equally” or “I’m in a league with friends and I don’t want to manipulate them just to win a league.” or “I’d rather do research and outsmart my trade partner rather than con them.” That’s fine. Organic trades and interactions with league members can often sprout positive results. You may even win a league by chance (assuming you don’t play with any of my students). So if you’re content being a ‘Trader Joe’ - no need to read further. But if you want to master the art of the fantasy baseball trade and transform yourself from winning by chance to winning by choice, you should study this article and bookmark it for later.
Assuming you absorbed the lessons from my previous post, you already have established a Fantasy Avatar™ that radiates power and confidence. Working from this position of strength, we just need to identify our target. Now most experts will tell you to peruse your roster and those of your leaguemates to find someone whose team is the inverse of your teams’ strengths/weaknesses. Take a step back, Trader Joe, and think about what you really want to accomplish here. You want to trade for superior players than those currently on your roster. Everyone in your league must have at least one player that’s an upgrade over yours so why rule out anyone right from the onset? Compatibility is not how we narrow in our target; susceptability is.
We do this by sending private messages to everyone in the league that allows us to gauge each competitor’s temperature. We can then rank everyone based on the likelihood we can Trade Close on them. This process is called Centigrading. This ‘Opener’ must be specially crafted to elicit a response that will determine trading temperature, maintain a position of power, and expose (or impose) any roster insecurities in your opponent. Here are two Openers – let’s see if you can separate the effective from the defective:
Nice draft. You snagged a few players right before I was going to (K-Rod, Cruz). Good luck in the league and hopefully we can make a trade at some point. Any thoughts?
Interesting draft. A SS and 2B in the first four rounds – you must really like middle infielders. Good thing you shored those up because it’s not like late round and free agent middle infielders ever work out (DeRosa, cough, Aaron Hill, cough, Jason Bartlett). I like my team a lot but let me know if there are any players you want to overpay for…
So which do you think is the good Opener – #1 or #2? Trick question – it’s neither. The first one is too passive and complimentary. The second is too heavy on the Negs. Here’s the proper balance:
“I like how you held off on pitchers until the 10th round. I had a couple of those pitchers on my wish list for upside 4th/5th/6th starters. Glad to see someone else here has the balls to draft based on instinct vs. the default rankings. Did any of my picks take you by surprise?”
See what I did here? Let’s break it down line by line:
Line Subtext
I like how you held off on pitchers until the 10th round. I’m smart enough to recognize your strategy.
I had a couple of those pitchers on my wish list for upside 4th/5th/6th starters. …but it seems pretty risky. A subtle but clear neg that might have Mr. Offense Is More Predictable feeling a bit worried by his staff.
Glad to see someone else here has the balls to draft based on instinct vs. the default rankings. I might not agree with your picks but I respect you have an opinion. This is a great line because everyone likes to think they are mavericks even when they are show ponies. It also sets up an environment where your trading partner can accept a lopsided trade and justify it based on their unconventional wisdom. We call this the Disoriental Rug Gambit – disorient your trading partner and then pull the rug out from under them.
Did any of my picks take you by surprise? Three messages in this final sentence: 1) Elicit a response. It’s a pain in the ### to look at another team’s roster to find a potential trade but it’s easy to call out a pick you don’t like, 2) Reaffirm power and confidence. I realize you might not like all my selections. That’s fine. Not all my evaluative methods are apparent so I can see how you’d be surprised but I am confident they are right and 3) Trade Enticement. I’m cocky enough that I might be easy to get the better of in a trade.
I think I’ve given you all that you can absorb in one reading. In the next post, I’ll go over how to Centigrade the responses from your messages to zero in on our target and my wing Saber will share his secrets on Carrot Theory ™.
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Fantasy Baseball AlphaTrading – Lesson #2
August 04, 2011 By: Diamond, The Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist Category: Diamond, The Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist 34 Comments →
Diamond is widely acknowledged as the most successful Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist in the world – applying the methods of female seduction to the art of winning fantasy baseball league championships. He travels cyberspace with his wing Saber, teaching those who play fantasy baseball how to be fantasy baseball players.
My name and avatar may be unfamiliar to you. My schedule is too demanding to distribute my daily thoughts in a weblog. Or to pontificate via podcast. Or to share my epiphanies via Twitter.
I am not here to provide advice on which player to start today. I am here to provide advice on which person to be tomorrow. I don’t change lineups. I change lives.
It’s been a long time since I’ve graced Razzball with my presence. I hope that’s provided sufficient time to osmose my advice and you have: 1) established the proper fantasy baseball avatar (mine this year is ninjassasininja) and 2) taken the initial steps towards becoming an AlphaTrader.
I am going to assume that you are in contention for first place (if you are not, I suggest re-reading my previous posts.). Your team can use some reinforcements and the best way to get them is via trade.
Most RTS’s (RotoSchmos) follow one of these three losing trading techniques:
1) Trader Joe – Look for the organic, win-win trade (e.g,. you need hitting, i need pitching)
2) ShortChanger – Try to trade two quarters for a dollar (e.g., Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur for Ryan Braun)
3) LowBaller – Make an insulting trade offer (e.g., Mike Aviles for Mike Stanton) thinking that might lead to something.
Trader Joe trades are achievable but are often hard to find. ShortChanger and LowBaller trades help your team but are hard to achieve.
A true AlphaTrader doesn’t acquire their desired target by battling with their trading partner. They disarm them. This requires deftly alternating between aggression and seduction. In the female seduction world, this avatar is known as the Dogmouse (a dog decides on what ##### to chase while a mouse gets the ##### to chase them).
Our AlphaTrading ground work has established which owners are most susceptible to our advantageous trade offers.
Here are four advanced gambits that I teach my students that produce reliable results (all terms mentioned are trademarked to Diamond PUA LLC):
1) The Garden of Eden – Let’s say I need SBs so I target Michael Bourn and want to give up Seth Smith. Instead of proposing this trade, we entice our trading partner by offering up fair value while hiding Smith behind the fig leaf of temptation. Something like, “I like Bourn. Willing to discuss an OF swap that doesn’t include Seth Smith.” Now let’s say your best OFs are Braun and Pence. Your trading partner will be enticed to offer a LowBaller trade of Bourn for Braun. He’s thinking you’re a RotoSchmo! You correct him gently with an “Of course I didn’t mean Braun. I meant any comparable OF to Bourn except for Seth Smith.” This subtle neg has him wanting to gain our respect by making a convincing argument that the next OF he asks for is comparable to Bourn. So he provides a couple of lines why Pence is comparable to Bourn. But he’s also thinking “Bourn is just as good as Smith. Why won’t he offer him? What does he know that I don’t?” We’re simultaneously devaluing his asset while boosting our asset. We close the deal by deflecting the attention away from Pence without negging…”You made some good points….but I need to keep Pence…..is there any other OF you would take?”. We don’t come out and say “How about Seth Smith?” as that would remove his ‘forbidden fruit’ status. We don’t pump up Seth Smith’s accomplishments. We just let our trading partner squirm until he can’t help but take a bite from our apple.
2) Spite and Switch – Proprietary research by my wingman Saber has shown that 70% of fantasy baseball transactions come from a negative place. This includes negative feelings towards a player, frustration at a leaguemate’s ‘good luck,’ frustration at their team’s ‘bad luck,’ etc. Negative feelings have no place in our decision-making as they lead to irrational actions. In my seminars, I refer to this as Rototilting. Amateur fantasy baseball pick-up artists recommend actively creating friction between two leaguemates in hopes one of them will Rototilt. But most people are smart enough to sidestep that gambit. I find it’s more effective to seduce a leaguemate into thinking you are on Rototilt and thinking they will use your spite against you. An experience AlphaTrader can move from faux Rototilt to an advantageous trade in three e-mails. You’ll need to attend one of my seminars for the exact verbiage but the basic outline is: 1) This <leaguemate> keeps asking me for <player>. I like you better. Make me an offer. 2) I’d TOTALLY take that <Lowballer/Shortchanger trade> but they’ll veto it. Let’s just swap these two players so they approve it and don’t suspect anything. 3) Okay, how about this variation. Oh, man, that <leaguemate> is going to be so pissed!
3) The Neglomaniac – This type of trade takes at least 8 weeks to pull off. Saber has crazy Neglomaniac game. I’ll let him explain the gambit….
‘Buy low’ offers insult potential trading partners. A star player has two poor weeks in April and the ‘buy low’ offers start flooding in. Our trading partner has invested his ego in this player – divesting from this player isn’t easy for them. What’s the best way to do this? If you guessed Dogmousing, you must be watching my subscription-only “Saber Rattling” online video service! While your leaguemate keeps getting Shortchanger offers for his slumping star, you show him the proper respect and clearly identify your interest in the player – e.g. “Tough going so far with Hanley Ramirez but he’ll rebound – he’s solid.” You continue to do this every two weeks – always complimenting your trading partner’s acumen and patience. At some point, his mind will convert your compliments to negs in much the same way that one’s body converts carbohydrates to sugar. He starts hating this albatross of a player – looking for some way to divest himself from this choice for the sake of his ego. And whom is first in line to receive the 80 cents on the dollar trade offer? The AlphaTrader, that’s who!
4) The Subliminator – This is something I came up with last year during my annual think tank (participants this year include Grey Albright, Alex Anthopolous, Rudy Gamble, Deepak Chopra, aspiring pickup artist SpikeOwnin’, a renowned hypnotherapist, and Boston Rob). It is similar to the Garden of Eden gambit in that we are subtly increasing the attractiveness of a player we want to trade. But the Subliminator gambit works by providing non-sequitur content that can be associated with said player. For example, if I want to trade BJ Upton, I might forward a link to a Kate Upton photo gallery with a “Now THAT’S a five-tool player” note. Before you know it, your trading partner forgets that Upton lost his power stroke three years ago. This could work both ways in that I might associate Jay Bruce with Bruce Springsteen if I’m looking to increase his value or Jay Leno if I’m looking to decrease his value (if he’s my trade target).
That’s all for now. Keep AlphaTrading!
thats awesome. Usually I'll find someone I want, then offer a trade including a similar player that I assume that team values more than the player I am actually looking to trade for. Once they shoot that down I counter with the guy I actually wanted, and they feel like i'm settling or that they won out. Doesn't always work, but I've found certain teams in the leagues I play in are extremely hesitant to accept initial offers.
Anyway, great topic. I find a good technique is to offer the other owner a choice in a situation if you can. Especially for a big trade as this can maximize the appeal and also can help in the kind of trades that get you that coveted last starter. Example: "You can pick one of these 3 WRs and one of my defenses" in exchange for (guy you want - or perhaps an either or on their end if they have 2 guys you rate similarly but will both help).Giving the other owner a sense they are dictating terms can be very effective.-QG
