If it ends up being moved, so be it. There's nothing political meant about it. This is science and any comments or discussions were meant to be related to that. Would be nice to keep it that way.I am thinking this thread will be moved.
We really need an "optimism" rating.If it ends up being moved, so be it. There's nothing political meant about it. This is science and any comments or discussions were meant to be related to that. Would be nice to keep it that way.
How so? I know that's very broad based and not asking you specifically for specific examples but thinking this through, it will take a massive effort to effect change on what is coming so I assume by your response, you are less than optimistic we (humanity, not just the US) address now and simply make concessions to our everyday life and "deal" with it. For the record I agree, no one is going to do much of anything to try to change the course we seem to be going down. And finger pointing aside, how would we? The US is at least making an effort as are most of the G8 but I look at China & India and think, our efforts are completely wiped out by these two countries not giving a ####.Humanity will adapt. We might not like a lot of the results but we will adapt
How so? I know that's very broad based and not asking you specifically for specific examples but thinking this through, it will take a massive effort to effect change on what is coming so I assume by your response, you are less than optimistic we (humanity, not just the US) address now and simply make concessions to our everyday life and "deal" with it. For the record I agree, no one is going to do much of anything to try to change the course we seem to be going down. And finger pointing aside, how would we? The US is at least making an effort as are most of the G8 but I look at China & India and think, our efforts are completely wiped out by these two countries not giving a ####.
Interesting discussion but methinks relatively pointless at this point.
So as I mentioned, there is no way #1 happens in any place other than a complete dictatorship like China & North Korea so while that would have an impact, it's pretty much a non-starter.At a high level, people will die from either direct effects (fires and floods) or indirect effects of being forced to migrate. This was first evident with 9/11. The people involved in that attack and that continue to propagate extremism are doing so because primarily their lives are upended by the inability to farm their lands, not because they really truly believe in some stupid cause. The same reason drives migrants to our borders, hurricanes and fires and floods will continue to put people at our doorsteps.
How should this be prevented
-Global population reduction is step 1. All efforts should be made to reduce the population in the short and long term. China, while doing not much, has done the most in this area and we will one day thank them. Policy wise need to de-incentivize all people from having children and pay people to become sterile. Every nation on the planet needs to be finding ways to cut their population. No other item has nearly as much impact on our future.
-Plant trees is step 2. Replanting huge portions of the planet with trees is the easiest step to reverse global climate effects, has minimal costs and pays huge dividends. It's a lot faster than carbon capture vaportech and the like.
Do those two things, odds are we make it out of here alive. Maybe.
im not trying to say everything will be fine or that we shouldn’t try to reduce it, just saying that long term we will deal with the consequences one way or another…and it will probably suck for a lot of peopleHow so? I know that's very broad based and not asking you specifically for specific examples but thinking this through, it will take a massive effort to effect change on what is coming so I assume by your response, you are less than optimistic we (humanity, not just the US) address now and simply make concessions to our everyday life and "deal" with it. For the record I agree, no one is going to do much of anything to try to change the course we seem to be going down. And finger pointing aside, how would we? The US is at least making an effort as are most of the G8 but I look at China & India and think, our efforts are completely wiped out by these two countries not giving a ####.
Interesting discussion but methinks relatively pointless at this point.
So as I mentioned, there is no way #1 happens in any place other than a complete dictatorship like China & North Korea so while that would have an impact, it's pretty much a non-starter.
#2 I agree 100% with but just in my little slice of the world, we continue to cut down forests for housing tracts. The fact that so many people want to live in SC is only possible by artificially conditioning the air to make it livable (as is the case with most of the south. At some point I feel like that is going to play a part in this population migration that will occur as we continue to waste resources trying to support population in areas that doesn't support population (which gets back to your 1st point).
And some crops will be grown further north, such as mangoes in Mississippi and maybe a longer growing season for soy and wheat in the Midwest. So, some positive effects.im not trying to say everything will be fine or that we shouldn’t try to reduce it, just saying that long term we will deal with the consequences one way or another…and it will probably suck for a lot of people
people may lose land and inland cities become coastal cities
Certain crops and animals may disappear but something else will take its place
So as I mentioned, there is no way #1 happens in any place other than a complete dictatorship like China & North Korea so while that would have an impact, it's pretty much a non-starter.
#2 I agree 100% with but just in my little slice of the world, we continue to cut down forests for housing tracts. The fact that so many people want to live in SC is only possible by artificially conditioning the air to make it livable (as is the case with most of the south. At some point I feel like that is going to play a part in this population migration that will occur as we continue to waste resources trying to support population in areas that doesn't support population (which gets back to your 1st point).
I hear you and agree. Birth rates in the US and Europe are upside down are essentially break even right now if I recall. Again, we're talking about developed countries. China and India are both considered developed and to your earlier point, China undertook a population reduction stance decades ago. They are also suffering from it now and will likely see a marked decline in population size because of it. India doesn't seem to care or maybe they do but it's too late I don't follow this nearly close enough to comment on it any way with confidence. I don't think telling the US you are limited to 1 kid and because you ####ers can't keep your #### in your pants, we're sterilizing that kid at birth. And we're going to do this for the next X amount of years. Might be what needs to happen but no way it occurs in my lifetime.#1 is happening in nearly all parts of the developed world, naturally, even where not forced. It's a requirement for all of us to come out of this alive. The world is below the replacement rate as a whole for the first time perhaps ever since plague times. That momentum might continue. Providing free contraception and incentivized sterility at 1 child or 0 child is a difficult concept and can be done horribly, but we have few choices.
Humanity will adapt. We might not like a lot of the results but we will adapt
I wouldn't agree to something like this, but a $500 check after the procedure is completed? Sure. You've just saved the government tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars over the next 18 years and then some. Plus the population control benefits of course.I don't think telling the US you are limited to 1 kid and because you ####ers can't keep your #### in your pants, we're sterilizing that kid at birth. And we're going to do this for the next X amount of years. Might be what needs to happen but no way it occurs in my lifetime.
I hear you and agree. Birth rates in the US and Europe are upside down are essentially break even right now if I recall. Again, we're talking about developed countries. China and India are both considered developed and to your earlier point, China undertook a population reduction stance decades ago. They are also suffering from it now and will likely see a marked decline in population size because of it. India doesn't seem to care or maybe they do but it's too late I don't follow this nearly close enough to comment on it any way with confidence. I don't think telling the US you are limited to 1 kid and because you ####ers can't keep your #### in your pants, we're sterilizing that kid at birth. And we're going to do this for the next X amount of years. Might be what needs to happen but no way it occurs in my lifetime.
You always make me thinkWe are less than 100 years from a country systematically killing all people of the Jewish faith in and near their borders. For no reason at all.
For doing something with a reason, good or bad, is well within the grasp of humans.
That's the "beauty" of most recycling info out there...it puts almost all of the messaging toward and burden on individuals. It's the corporations that continue to use plastic for everything, governments taking very few actions, etc where the real changes need to occur. Yet we'll continue to see recycling after recycling messages directed toward individuals. At this point it's insulting to consumers.What's frustrating about this issue to me is the lack of agency at an individual level to make a positive impact. I could become the composting and recycling guru, spend the rest of my life planting trees, never drive a combustion engine vehicle again, and none of that is even a drop in the bucket compared to even one day of industry and government action/inaction at an international level. Heck, even at the township level. I can separate all my recycling until the cows come home, if my town doesn't take the proper steps after they pick it up what am I, as an individual, supposed to do about that? So I support measures to reduce climate change, of course. What I frown upon is the push down to individuals, as if that makes a difference. "If we all as individuals do our part..." Yeah sure. Governments and industries need to lead this charge. Can I do my part as an individual? Sure. Does that make any difference at all? Questionable, imo.
I have of those big ### 96 gallon recycling bins that is pretty much full every week. I figure 90% of it just ends up in the landfill anywayThat's the "beauty" of most recycling info out there...it puts almost all of the messaging toward and burden on individuals. It's the corporations that continue to use plastic for everything, governments taking very few actions, etc where the real changes need to occur. Yet we'll continue to see recycling after recycling messages directed toward individuals. At this point it's insulting to consumers.
That means you're using too much sh!t.I have of those big ### 96 gallon recycling bins that is pretty much full every week. I figure 90% of it just ends up in the landfill anyway
Yes, this wasn’t ever going to get political. An inherently political solution got political? Quelle suprise!
its probably half full of white claw boxes and amazon boxes from my wifeThat means you're using too much sh!t.
The invisible hand will only move the exact amount it has to in order to maximize profits and stay within a relatively safe legal zone. Any other goal is so far removed from consideration it almost doesn't exist.Politics likely won't be involved in solving it. Industry is moving that direction without it.
An outright ban seems counterproductive at this point. Something has to change though.I'm somewhere between a tax and a ban on disposable plastic. Terrible for the environment, cheap to make, impossible for companies to give up. The plastic bag fight is a feel good story, but our reliance on plastics goes way, way too deep.
I got dibs on gills.Humanity will adapt. We might not like a lot of the results but we will adapt
The invisible hand will only move the exact amount it has to in order to maximize profits and stay within a relatively safe legal zone. Any other goal is so far removed from consideration it almost doesn't exist.
An outright ban seems counterproductive at this point. Something has to change though.
Thankfully (based on Culdeus' post above) industries will largely move without being compelled to do so with self improvements to protect us all. Like when cigarette companies added labels and restricted advertising, car companies willingly increased safety standards, lead was removed from gasoline by petroleum companies, etc etc etc. The magic of corporations doing the right thing without being forced to through legislative acts...awesome!!
We must have different magic 8 balls than each other good buddy. Yours appears to rely a bit much on a zero sum game style future.The bigger issue above climate change, is that the world has only a finite amount of certain resources. The lack of certain resources will put a hard cap on the energy needed.
You see this in copper mining, 10% of the planet's copper has been mined. Most of it is recycled because it's easy. The rare earths that we need for our monitors and phones. Nobody has a clue how to replace those. There's dozens of things like that which will hit hard, the shortages in some sectors will ultimately make us more efficient, consume less not because we want to but because we have to. Once that feedback loop gets started the world will course correct, not before perhaps 1-2B people are dead of disease, hunger, and war.
Zero question we have reached peak planet earth at least for the next 100 years.
We must have different magic 8 balls than each other good buddy. Yours appears to rely a bit much on a zero sum game style future.
Humans rarely "consume less because they have too" and more often move toward different types of consumption or other solutions. People didn't just use less whale blubber for their lamps and slowly suffer a less illuminated world...they improvised, discovered, and invented their way out of the impending problem. The same will occur with copper alternatives, various rare earth elements, etc.
As climate change continues, more and more people/companies/governments will eventually put in their time, energy, and resources into solving the problems. It doesn't mean the solutions will be easy (see vaccines and masks of late) but eventually humans will find ways to adapt.
If we've "reached peak Earth for the next 100 years" and "1-2 billion people die" that would seem to be in the bottom 1% of outcomes to me. Paradigm shifts, advancements in technology, and an acceptance of facts can occur much more quickly when the problems become too big to ignore. Are we there yet with climate change? Not sure, but more and more seem to be noticing real problems now. It's getting difficult to ignore.
That’s a very optimistic outlook you have. Climate change could create conditions (species extinction, catastrophic soil erosion) that could threaten the human species. Say bees go. That’s a big problem that isn’t solved by “something will replace it”.im not trying to say everything will be fine or that we shouldn’t try to reduce it, just saying that long term we will deal with the consequences one way or another…and it will probably suck for a lot of people
people may lose land and inland cities become coastal cities
Certain crops and animals may disappear but something else will take its place
How do you mitigate the impact of climate change over the next 50-100 years for you and your loved ones? Wife and I debated NC and upstate NY when moving off of Long Island. Climate change and fresh water access was a big reason we opted to go north.
Thinking that solar generation capabilities become more and more important as heat strains electrical grids. Small homestead and water storage are likely a positive, but I’m not sure if a necessity. If we are nearing peak population, do assets start a devaluation?
Orlando is 80 feet above sea-level. Central Florida will be good during our lifetime.Anyone anywhere in Florida is on borrowed time before insurance pulls the plug. That and California water are the two big migrations the US will face. Texas is well positioned for both green energy and with space to grow. I mean the I35 corridor has plenty of water.
If I was under 50 in Florida I would be looking for a way out ASAP. Or at least renting.
Orlando is 80 feet above sea-level. Central Florida will be good during our lifetime.
Florida Flood Map/Elevation Map | Sea Level Rise (0 - 100m)
Europe is in a horrible way if the gulf stream shuts down. Western Europe is the major exception to the developed economies will survive. They will absolutely be destroyed by this well before the US and need to migrate to Russia, have fun with that.
Cross posted these in the other climate thread earlier.Curious for a link to the dynamics here
Appreciate it. Seems like the just of these is that the collapse of the gulf stream will leave cold northern places even colder. Anything on the implications for other parts of Western Europe like Portugal or inland like Germany?Cross posted these in the other climate thread earlier.
https://tekdeeps.com/the-gulf-stream-is-about-to-collapse-sweden-can-become-uninhabitable/
https://globalnews.ca/news/8089039/gulf-stream-collapse-study-canada-europe/
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/environment/953735/what-is-the-gulf-stream-and-what-would-happen-if-it-collapsed
Anyone anywhere in Florida is on borrowed time before insurance pulls the plug. That and California water are the two big migrations the US will face. Texas is well positioned for both green energy and with space to grow. I mean the I35 corridor has plenty of water.
If I was under 50 in Florida I would be looking for a way out ASAP. Or at least renting.
Texas energy has a lot of issues. Yes, they have a lot of renewable established but this winter showed they need more development.