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Close Calls: Larry Fitzgerald -vs- Andre Johnson (1 Viewer)
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I voted Fitz in both.
I think Arizona will have to lean on him more than Houston leans on Andre. It was the same case last year but I think Palmer is enough of a difference maker (fantasy wise) to push Fitz past Andre.
But it is a very close call.
I think Arizona will have to lean on him more than Houston leans on Andre. It was the same case last year but I think Palmer is enough of a difference maker (fantasy wise) to push Fitz past Andre.
But it is a very close call.
Chaka
Footballguy
This one isn't really even a close call.
Bruce Arians offense feeds the starting WRs the ball pretty much unlike any other. They won't throw many passes to the RBs or TEs, and the running game will likely be below average as well. You can expect Arozona to throw the ball a lot. Last year Reggie Wayne had the most targets for a WR in something like 10 years and you can expect to see something similar for Fitz.
Fitz has missed 5 games in 9 seasons (one in the last five seasons); Johnson has missed 22 in 10 (12 in the last 5).
Fitz averages .55 TDs/game; Johnson averages .41 TDs/game.
Fitz has scored double digit TDs 4 times; Johnson has never done it.
Add in the fact that Fitz finally has a real NFL QB throwing him the ball for the first time since 2009 and this should be Fitz six days per week and twice on Sundays.
Bruce Arians offense feeds the starting WRs the ball pretty much unlike any other. They won't throw many passes to the RBs or TEs, and the running game will likely be below average as well. You can expect Arozona to throw the ball a lot. Last year Reggie Wayne had the most targets for a WR in something like 10 years and you can expect to see something similar for Fitz.
Fitz has missed 5 games in 9 seasons (one in the last five seasons); Johnson has missed 22 in 10 (12 in the last 5).
Fitz averages .55 TDs/game; Johnson averages .41 TDs/game.
Fitz has scored double digit TDs 4 times; Johnson has never done it.
Add in the fact that Fitz finally has a real NFL QB throwing him the ball for the first time since 2009 and this should be Fitz six days per week and twice on Sundays.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
What he said.
Fitz is a tier ahead of AJ this year IMO.
Calvin
Dez
AJ Green
Julio
DT
Fitz
Marshall
AJohnson
Roddy
Pots
Footballguy
After watching both play this preseason, I personally think AJ is ahead of Fitz. Palmer doesn't look very accurate on many of his throws to Fitz and while the Cardinals will throw a ton, I don't expect a high completion % from Palmer and I expect a lot of turnovers and sacks due to a less than stellar O-Line and no threat in the run game. Andre Johnson on the other hand is on a more balanced team but Shaub seems to still love to target him a ton (131 on 7 catches in Week 3 preseason) and should see a similar season to last year. Neither will likely have high TD totals, but will rely on a massive number of targets, receptions, and yards.
Shutout
Footballguy
I am about as big a fitz and Wayne fan as they come so I've seen this play out on the Wayne side and have put some time into extrapolating it to fitz this year and while I think fitz will be very strong this year, I don't think he can catch AJ in ppr this season.
Arians and Palmer will help a ton but this was such a brutal o line and running game in the desert (and the defense is pretty solid and able to keep the games in check for the most part) and I just think AJ commands more attention here.
I'm not crying if I have either option but if faced with both I will take AJ and that is with considering my unhealthy appreciation for Fitz.
All the stats listed above are good ones but that is a stat on a board in a vacuum. If you look at actual finishes in ppr over the last 6-7 years, AJ has placed higher, generally.
Chaka
Footballguy
In 2010 with Derek Anderson (9) John Skelton (4) and Max Hall (3) throwing him the ball he caught 90 for 1137 and 6 TDs.
In 2011 with Kevin Kolb (9) and John Skelton (7) throwing the ball he caught 80 for 1,411 and 8 TDs
In 2012 with John Skelton (6), Kevin Kolb (5), Ryan Lindley (4) and Brian Hoyer (1) he caught 71 for 798 and 4 TDs
In the three worst seasons of his career he averaged 80 catches, 1,115 yards and 6 TDs. That works out to 5 catches for 71 yards and 0.3 TDs/game, while starting 47 of 48 games.
Over the last three years Andre Johnson has been better on a per game basis, no doubt, averaging 6.6 catches for 94 yards and 0.4 TDs/game. Over that span AJ has started 35 of 48 possible games.
And I can see choosing AJ based on those numbers but things are much different in Arizona than they have been over the past three seasons.
Despite the loss of Cooper the offensive line is definitely better than last year if for no other reason then they get left tackle Levi Brown back. They also added Eric Winston and Chilo Rachal who may not be high end but are upgrades over what was there.
And love or hate Carson Palmer he is worlds better than any of the jokers who have started over the past three seasons in Arizona. In 24 starts for a bad Oakland Raiders team Palmer averaged 282 yards and 1.45 TDs/game. Last year on that terrible team with a very bad offensive line and no real offensive weapons he threw for 4,018 yards and 22 scores. His situation in Arizona is no worse than what he dealt with in Oakland. I would argue that it is better overall.
Throw in the most favorable coach for WRs in the league and I cannot for the life of me justify AJ over Fitz. Fitz is just the better talent.
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I would take Fitz just based on the fact he's a better red zone target. AJ's in the same system he's been for years. It's pretty established they just don't use him enough down there. Fitz is a post up/50-50 ball monster and I'll assume his new offense is going to get him the ball in the red zone.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I actually went the exact opposite. Johnson is likely to catch a ton of balls, but doesn't score a whole lot of TDs. I could easily see him putting up 100-1,245-6. Fitz has superior speed and cutting ability, and I think will be the target of more long balls with Arians in town. I could see him doing something more like 80-1,160-9.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I don't think it's close. Andre my a wide margin. If you think Carson Palmer will remain upright all year long, then it's close. But once Palmer gets carted off on a stretcher, you are back to hoping high school level Qb's can make something of Fitz's value. Good luck banking on that brutal O-line protecting Palmer.
Chaka
Footballguy
Not sure I see that.
Arizona's line is improved over last season and it's not really close and Schaub's line lost more than it gained this offseason.
And Carson Palmer is more durable than Matt Schaub has ever been.
And since when can we bank on AJ playing 16 games?
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A lot of good points have been made in this thread. AJ is certainly more injury prone but that is close to a wash because of the risk associated with a horrible Arizona team that can't protect their QB (recent OL injury hurts). Yes the new coach and QB helps and I don't think Palmer will get hurt but there is certainly downside to this situation because the offense could still be bad. We know HOU will have a good offense and protect Schaub so as long as AJ stays healthy, he will produce.
I think the idea that Fitz has more talent is flawed. Fitz is definitely better at attacking the deep ball and making some amazing plays but he's not as skilled as Johnson in other, less entertaining areas of receiving. About a year ago, FBG favorite Greg cosell rated Andre Johnson the best WR in the league. That honor certainly goes to Calvin now but a case can still be made that AJ is number 2 or 3.
AJ likely won't score more TDs than Fitz, but of the two he is much more likely to hit 100 catches and 1500 yards. I favor AJ slightly but I would be happy with either.
I think the idea that Fitz has more talent is flawed. Fitz is definitely better at attacking the deep ball and making some amazing plays but he's not as skilled as Johnson in other, less entertaining areas of receiving. About a year ago, FBG favorite Greg cosell rated Andre Johnson the best WR in the league. That honor certainly goes to Calvin now but a case can still be made that AJ is number 2 or 3.
AJ likely won't score more TDs than Fitz, but of the two he is much more likely to hit 100 catches and 1500 yards. I favor AJ slightly but I would be happy with either.
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I love Larry Fitzgerald as much as anyone ans would take him over Andre Johnson in a trade, but they aren't going in the same spot in my drafts. Fitz is usually gone by the first couple picks of the 3rd round, while AJ falls behind Cobb, Cruz, and Roddy. Andre made it into the 4th round of a few of my drafts, all of which were done before he went off last weekend.
Fitz is the better talent with fewer injury concerns, but I think AJ is a safer bet to put up low end WR1 numbers. Especially in PPR.
Fitz is the better talent with fewer injury concerns, but I think AJ is a safer bet to put up low end WR1 numbers. Especially in PPR.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't get the logic behind predicting the O-line will get Palmer injured particularly when comparing him and Fitz (one of the more durable players in the league) to two of the more injury prone QB/WR combos in the league in Schaub and AJ. Houston's offensive line lost talent and Arizona's gained talent, notably Tackle Eric Winston from Houston and LT Levi Brown is returning from injury. For all intents and purposes Arizona will have an improved line over the last couple seasons.
I guess it's splitting hairs between AJ and Fitz on talent but the offense favors Fitz in this debate as we know exactly what AJs maximum upside is with Houston which is about 1,500 or so yards and 9 TDs (a TD total he has only reached one time in 10 seasons).
Considering Fitz's history and what I saw last season from an aging Reggie Wayne with a rookie QB behind another weak offensive line with Arizona's new head coach I think his upside is significantly higher and his floor is, at worst, the same as AJs.
On the flip side AJ is coming at a slightly reduced price so perhaps he has more value.
I said "I don't think Palmer will get hurt". When I refer to the bad O-line, I just refer to the possibility that the O-line could hinder the offense to the point where Fitz's production is hurt.
Can someone elaborate on what important O-line talent HOU lost between this year and last year? I'm not aware of any major changes this offseason.
Can someone elaborate on what important O-line talent HOU lost between this year and last year? I'm not aware of any major changes this offseason.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Coming into the season I would have said Larry, but based on what I have seen from the AZ oline I have to vote AJ. Palmer may not be be afforded the protection needed to run Arian's down the field passing game. Cooper's injury is a big hit to the unit, and I am very skeptical that the oline will be much better than last year. For those with short memories, Fitz was unstartable after the week 10 bye due to QB and protection problems. In ppr format he exceeded 7 ppg ONCE in the last 7 games.
I love Fitz as much as anyone but fantasy wise until I see sustain protection from the oline I will be skeptical as about his value.
I love Fitz as much as anyone but fantasy wise until I see sustain protection from the oline I will be skeptical as about his value.
Chaka
Footballguy
Carson Palmer put up 4000+ and 22 TDs behind an equally poor line last season (with lesser skill position players) and Arians put together a very good passing attack in Indy with a rookie QB and a bottom third offensive line.
Right guard Wade Smith is out indefinitely after a knee scope and RT Derek Newton who started 13 games last season was an adequate, at best, replacement for Eric Winston.
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Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
As long as the Texans have Probowl LT Duane Brown, they will be fine. Winston was no great loss, as he's just bounced from one team to another. Good tackles rarely escape when they are wanted. In brief, I have a lot more faith in the Houston O-line than the Arizona O-line.
Chaka
Footballguy
No doubt the Texans line is top notch from C to LT but Arian Foster wasn't solely responsible for his drop in YPC last season. I am in no way saying that Arizona has a better line than Houston. But Winston is a big upgrade for Arizona any way you look at it (and I think he was more of a cap move in Houston).
Winston was sitting on his couch a month ago and signed with Ari for the league minimum. He's been cut by two teams in two years and despite the Texans issues with Newton at RT they had no interest in bringing him back. It's questionable at best if he's an upgrade for anyone.
Wade Smith is the left guard and had his knee scoped two weeks ago, he is expected back for week one and practicing again this week. Either way, the rookie Quessenberry is being talked about as pushing for his job anyway. Brandon Brooks (who I didn't like last year) has taken over the right guard position since late last year and is getting a lot of talk as a huge improvement at that spot. Plus the Texans added a true fullback in Greg Jones and got rid of disappointing hybrid James Casey. Their O'line should be better than last year.
Wade Smith is the left guard and had his knee scoped two weeks ago, he is expected back for week one and practicing again this week. Either way, the rookie Quessenberry is being talked about as pushing for his job anyway. Brandon Brooks (who I didn't like last year) has taken over the right guard position since late last year and is getting a lot of talk as a huge improvement at that spot. Plus the Texans added a true fullback in Greg Jones and got rid of disappointing hybrid James Casey. Their O'line should be better than last year.
adrenaline
Footballguy
I'm going with Andre, I trust the chemistry between him and Schaub.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
Absolutely taking Andre over Larry.
Opportunity is far better for Johnson!
I love Larry, but he could easily lay another egg in 2013 [less than 800 yards in 2012]. O-Line still sucks, no reasonable RB on hand, no other receiving threats who will draw attention from him. I'm not sold on the merit of an old Carson Palmer either. If he's laying on his back, he'll be no better than last year's group of QB's.
Andre Roberts was the WR rookie to assist Fitzgerald in 2010. In 48 games played, he's eclipsed 80 yards in a game 6 times! Yay!
Floyd is showing promise, but hasn't proven anything yet. He's had 1 game out of 16 where he collected more than 80 yards receiving [the one game he did it was in garbage time week 17 against SF]. He'll need at least another year to be of any use to Fitzgerald.
Opportunity is far better for Johnson!
I love Larry, but he could easily lay another egg in 2013 [less than 800 yards in 2012]. O-Line still sucks, no reasonable RB on hand, no other receiving threats who will draw attention from him. I'm not sold on the merit of an old Carson Palmer either. If he's laying on his back, he'll be no better than last year's group of QB's.
Andre Roberts was the WR rookie to assist Fitzgerald in 2010. In 48 games played, he's eclipsed 80 yards in a game 6 times! Yay!
Floyd is showing promise, but hasn't proven anything yet. He's had 1 game out of 16 where he collected more than 80 yards receiving [the one game he did it was in garbage time week 17 against SF]. He'll need at least another year to be of any use to Fitzgerald.
Chaka
Footballguy
So no one cares that Andre has never caught over 9 TDs in his 10 year career? Do you suddenly think that he will break that mark in a Kubiak offense (a derivative of the Shanahan offense which rarely, if ever, produced 10 TD WRs?
I guess I can see the argument for AJ producing more catches and yards but does AJ really have the same ceiling as Fitz? Particularly when you factor in the health issue between Palmer v Schaub and Fitz v AJ?
Just not seeing it. FItz seems like the much safer bet with the bigger upside.
I guess I can see the argument for AJ producing more catches and yards but does AJ really have the same ceiling as Fitz? Particularly when you factor in the health issue between Palmer v Schaub and Fitz v AJ?
Just not seeing it. FItz seems like the much safer bet with the bigger upside.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Schaub >> Palmer in real football and fantasy
Houston offensive line >>> Arizona offensive line
Arian Foster >>>>> any Arizona RB
Yates >>>> Arizona backup QB
NFC West defense >>>> AFC South defense
should I continue?
Houston offensive line >>> Arizona offensive line
Arian Foster >>>>> any Arizona RB
Yates >>>> Arizona backup QB
NFC West defense >>>> AFC South defense
should I continue?
Chaka
Footballguy
Here are the numbers for the #1 TD scoring receiver (WR or TE) from Shanahan/Kubiak offenses:
1995 Anthony Miller 14
1996 Shannon Sharpe 10
1997 Rod Smith 12
1998 Ed McCaffrey 10, Shannon Sharpe 10
1999 Ed McCaffrey 7
2000 Rod Smith 8
2001 Rod Smith 11
2002 Rod Smith 5
2003 Shannon Sharpe 8
2004 Rod Smith 7, Ashley Lelie 7
2005 Rod Smith 6
2006 Javon Walker 8, Andre Johnson 5, Owen Daniels 5
2007 Brandon Marshall 7, Andre Johnson 8
2008 Brandon Marshall 6, Andre Johnson 8, Kevin Walter 8
2009 Andre Johnson 9
2010 Santana Moss 6, Andre Johnson 8
2011 Jabbar Gafney 5, Joel Dreesen 6
2012 Santana Moss 8, Owen Daniels 6
So 6 times in 24 seasons (more than I thought actually) they produced a WR or TE that scored double digit TDs and none in the past 17 combined seasons. I know AJ can rack up the catches and yards but I am not optimistic that, in Kubiak's offense, that he can come close to what Fitz can do when it comes to TDs. Fitz on the other hand can certainly come close (although perhaps not surpass) to what AJ does in catches and yards. Add in Fitz's better durability and I am still not sure why this is even close.
1995 Anthony Miller 14
1996 Shannon Sharpe 10
1997 Rod Smith 12
1998 Ed McCaffrey 10, Shannon Sharpe 10
1999 Ed McCaffrey 7
2000 Rod Smith 8
2001 Rod Smith 11
2002 Rod Smith 5
2003 Shannon Sharpe 8
2004 Rod Smith 7, Ashley Lelie 7
2005 Rod Smith 6
2006 Javon Walker 8, Andre Johnson 5, Owen Daniels 5
2007 Brandon Marshall 7, Andre Johnson 8
2008 Brandon Marshall 6, Andre Johnson 8, Kevin Walter 8
2009 Andre Johnson 9
2010 Santana Moss 6, Andre Johnson 8
2011 Jabbar Gafney 5, Joel Dreesen 6
2012 Santana Moss 8, Owen Daniels 6
So 6 times in 24 seasons (more than I thought actually) they produced a WR or TE that scored double digit TDs and none in the past 17 combined seasons. I know AJ can rack up the catches and yards but I am not optimistic that, in Kubiak's offense, that he can come close to what Fitz can do when it comes to TDs. Fitz on the other hand can certainly come close (although perhaps not surpass) to what AJ does in catches and yards. Add in Fitz's better durability and I am still not sure why this is even close.
Chaka
Footballguy
Please because I am not sure your point. Particularly in regards to the RB situation which favors Fitz much more than AJ, unless you think Mendenhall is going to vulture a lot of TDs from the Arizona offense.
The best thin AJ has going for him, and this is a big one, is the fact that his team will definitely score more points than Arizona Of course, and this is speculation, they should also be ahead in more games which (in theory) should act against the passing game to some degree.
bonesman
Footballguy
bonesman
Footballguy
Good RBs keep drives alive allowing more chances for catches and yards... you seem overly focused on TDs
Chaka
Footballguy
That's nice. Not sure what your point is though. Who has a better chance of cracking double digit TDs between AJ and Fitz?
My goodness Arians installed a new offense in Indy last year and turned an aging veteran WR, that everyone discounted going into the season, into a fantasy stud with a rookie QB behind a substandard offensive line. And now people are worried that he can't do it with an accomplished veteran QB (who performed at a solid/high level behind an equally bad line with a lesser supporting cast), an equivalent offensive line and perhaps the best WR in football (who has a better #2 & #3 than Luck did last season).
What's the problem?
Chaka
Footballguy
TDs are a great equalizer and Fitz has a similar yardage upside and a much greater TD upside than AJ (and a greater chance to play 16 games). I am not sure how that can be argued against.
Manster
Footballguy
All things considered I think its a toss up. Right now, I'd say Fitz may be slightly overrated and AJ may be slightly underrated. Everyone thinks Fitz is gonna have a bounce back year with Palmer under center. He's better than the crapshack QB's they had last season. Palmer is still not the savior the Cards are lookin for.
Both play 16 games, I like AJ a little better.
Both play 16 games, I like AJ a little better.
