Folks here are telling you what to do with your first round pick. Your second round pick. You've got draft dominators, and draft apps, and team raters, and master raters, and master draft team dominating value based shark apps, and all this other great stuff, but at the end of the day, if you're using your first couple of draft picks, you're not much of a hawk at all, are you? How much dominance are you asserting over your league when you started on equal footing? That's not a hawk. That's barely a shark, at best, under the right circumstances, on the right day of the week.
You want to
really show the guys in your league who's boss? Throw away your first round pick. Seriously. Toss it. When you're sitting around the table and your pick comes up and everyone looks at you, just politely say "pass." Do the same thing in the second round. Let them laugh. That's just a sign of their insecurity. The quiet ones are the ones who understand, at that very moment, that they aren't dealing with just any ordinary fantasy magic football guy. This is a real life hawk, and they're sitting across the table from them, and the one thing that is going through their mind is what they should be putting in the Memo field of the $50 check they are writing to you, because this fantasy season has already ended for them.
This is it. The 2010 All-Value All-Otis Team -- start picking these guys in, like, I dunno, the 3rd, maybe 4th rounds, and then beat your entire league, and then have everyone fully appreciate who the real hawk in the room is. You'll probably be disinvited from the league in 2011, but screw those guys, they sucked anyway.
QB
Sam Bradford
Yes, I know that he's a rookie. Take this guy with your last pick, and do so with confidence, because the truth here is that the NFL hasn't seen a rookie QB like this guy since Peyton Manning started throwing INTs all over Indianapolis. That year he threw for 3800 yards and 26 TDs, which is good for on-the-cusp of QB10-12 last year depending on your
scoring format. (Aside: take your league scoring formats out of your sigs, gups). His weapons are new and limited, but Sjax will make enough out of the dump-offs, and new addition Mark Clayton will be sufficiently involved once he is up-to-speed, that I think we'll see pretty good numbers out of this kid. Certainly worth the last pick in your draft.
Edited to add: below some gup tells me I didn't make a prediction here. It's a fair point. So I'll add one. And why? Because I've watched Mark Sanchez act like a goofy college Freshman on Hard Knocks for a month now, and I'm tired of watching a guy who just got a ~$45M payday act like a kid in church. Bradford is the real deal. A consummate professional. And he'll quietly put up statistics we haven't seen from a rookie QB in years. Top 12 in standard scoring when it's all said and done. He'll be hampered a bit by the INTs, but he'll very quietly and reliably put up stats.
RB
Jerome Harrison
Joe Bryant gives us lots of good advice. Well, except for that one preseason he kept telling me not to take Frank Gore because Kevan Barlow or Michael Robinson or some other clown was the go-to-guy there, and I had to keep pulling Chase aside in a bar and plead with him that "
you guys have got this one all wrong" but
still nobody listened to old Oats, and we all know how that one turned out (with Calbear huddled in a corner in a pool of his own tears gripping a wet Kevan Barlow poster). That all went down in 2005, and this sort of feels a whole lot like 2005 to me. Because in every single writeup you see things like "well, with Hardesty hurt, expect to see Peyton Hillis and James Davis carry the load here." Wait, what? Why are we completely ignoring a guy who went bananas at the end of last year, and who has all the opportunity in the world to run behind a much better-than-advertised run blocking line (I've documented all of these thoughts and more
here). And then we now have Mangini finally acknowledging that "There's no more time to wait," -- "He's going to get a lot of work." The guy hasn't failed as a starting RB yet, his team had more success with him behind the wheel, and they don't have a ton of other options at this point. I'll send everyone here a dollar if he doesn't rush for 150 yards in at least one game this year. THAT'S LIKE THIRTY THOUSAND DOLLARS PEOPLE. I don't see other predictors tossing out guarantees like that here (yes MoP, I'm looking at you).
Matt Forte
All value all day long and the hawk in me gets all giddy when I see something like this. It's perfect really. Guy has a down year after being a top-5 consensus pick the year before. His team was a mess last year, he was injured, and he looked injured out on the field. Fast forward a year, and you've got a guy calling the plays who actually knows about offense (and a guy who knows how to utilize a good pass catching back), and you've got a healthy Forte who, by all accounts, looks like his old self out on the field, and his biggest competition for touches is a 30-year-old back who has broken 1,000 yards rushing exactly once in his career, when the Vikings were desperate at the position. This journeyman isn't keeping real talent off the field. Now, don't get me wrong here -- Forte is NOT physically gifted as a worldbeater. But he is competent across the board, and is now back to health and in the right situation. He won't average 4.5 YPC, but he will outperform all expectations and be a starting caliber fantasy back. Hawks roll with Forte. Let the gups take Gore.
BONUS: Larry Johnson
We all know Larry Johnson's story, and I won't punish us with a thorough accounting of the details. Everyone keeps telling me he looks like crap this preseason. I don't know, he didn't look like crap driving through the Jets defense and scoring a TD, but what do I know, I just work here.* (*I actually don't). The other gripe about LJ was that he has "looked slow" in preseason. Guess what, gang -- welcome to the NFL, where Larry Johnson has NEVER been fast. He's a hard runner with good vision who makes the right cuts, and hits the right holes at the right time. That's how he had multiple dominating seasons. It has never been about speed with him. And Portis? Ugh. Portis gets hurt more than my ex-girlfriend's feelings when I called her fat (she sort of was), and Shanahan has always had at least a mild crush on LJ. Do not be in the least bit surprised when you draft him in like the 34th round of your 12-IDP player draft and he puts up starting RB numbers. Yes, he's still got that much left in the tank, and this is one dude who is scary when he plays with a chip on his shoulder. I just wish he'd stop doing that stupid diamond thing in the end zone, because he looks like a moron.
WR
Mike Williams
No, I'm not even going to bother to specify which one I'm talking about, because if you followed my instructions at the beginning of this thread, only hawks are reading this, and you already know. Let the sharks waste their time with a rookie WR who'll have Josh Freeman hucking knuckleballs at him all season. Give me the guy, as one of my last picks in the draft, who will end up the SEA WR1 by mid-season, and who'll be manhandling DBs and catching every missile Hasselbeck fires at him this year. I know Hass hasn't looked like himself the last couple of years and has had back issues, but the reality here is that he's still only 34 and still can play the QB position well -- he just hasn't had a halfway decent WR1 to throw at in years. Enter Big Mike. We here at Otis HQ have been giddy about this one for weeks. You're getting a younger and hungrier T.O. at bargain basement prices. Fantastic. Ignore the knocks on Mike. I'm a firm believer in second chances. Remember that he had rough going out of the gate from college when he was forced to sit a year, get out of game shape, and lose his lust for the game. He was practically set up for failure. But he lost a boatload of weight, has his speed back, has matured, has some pro experience under his belt, is reunited with his college coach, and really does strike me as a young man who is so appreciative of this opportunity and wants so badly to get it right this time (someone phone Universal Pictures) -- which is something we so rarely see from these kids in pro sports today. "But Otis, it sounds like you just want him to succeed, and you're not being objective." Hogwash you Gup! I firmly believe this kid is going to break 1,000 yards receiving this year and catch at least eight touchdowns. Up to you if you'd rather draft the other Mike Williams (that whole debate, by the way, is so completely stupid, because you're only comparing them because they have the same first and last name, which is a really dumb reason to compare two football players, and unless you're playing in a league that requires at least one Mike Williams on every team (I know a guy from Oregon who plays in such a league, real hardcore
hawk, but that's a different story), it really doesn't matter much).
Wes Welker
His ADP is somewhere around 47, which means I guess you can take him with one of your first picks, which pains me, but whatever. He's value. He's the bald eagle. He's soaring high above the trees, into the clouds, and he's playing catch with Tom Brady all day and eating Swedish Fish among the singing angels. Ignore the nonsense about him not feeling 100%. Wes Welker doesn't need to feel 100%. When I was 25 I had the best day of my life -- I was in shape, I went out and got hammered and won 10 grand in a casino and hooked up with a bunch of hot chicks and had the most glorious day of my life, and still, on my best day ever, I was at Wes Welker's 53%. And that's being kind. But the point is that his ADP is somewhere close to the 20th WR off the board, and you'll end up with a top-8 WR. You can send me back a dollar for that. In fact, if everyone does that, I'll make back the thirty-large I gave away above (just kidding, that one's still airtight). He'll be just fine, he'll catch 115 balls and a bunch of TDs, and defensive backs will still be doing that thing where they forget where he is, and they look one way, and then look the other, and then bend down and look between their legs and see him firing off into the end zone again.
Eddie Royal
Eddie Royal had 91 catches as a rookie. Eddie Royal had 91 catches as a rookie. Eddie Royal had 91 catches as a rookie. Eddie Royal had 91 catches as a rookie. Just keep saying it until you go into a trance-like state and find enlightenment, because that's what us hawks are doing. I don't know if you heard the news, but Brandon Marshall left town, and his stand-in is Jabar Gaffney (lol). I had to scroll down a few pages in the rankings to find him, but he's going as the 46th receiver off the board. Eddie Royal had 91 catches as a rookie. The Broncos are, sadly, not going to be that good, and Moreno is heavily overrated, and they're going to be passing the ball a lot to keep up with the scores in their division games with the Chargers and Chiefs (srsly). Eddie Royal had 91 catches as a rookie. Denver plays the Jets and Baltimore early in the season, but after the BYE week it's like candy from a baby. Eddie Royal had 91 catches as a rookie. Jabar Gaffney? I honestly checked arena league rosters before even looking to think he was slated to be a WR1 in the NFL. He's turning 30 this season and he's only broken 700 receiving yards once in his career, just barely. Eddie Royal is fast, he's entering his third year, and his value coming out of a down season has never been lower. Eddie Royal will have 91 catches this year too.
Bonus: Pierre Garcon
No one fights like Garcon, Douses lights like Garcon, In a wrestling match nobody bites like Garcon! For there's no one as burly and brawny, As you see I've got biceps to spare. Not a bit of him's scraggly or scrawny. And ev'ry last inch of me's covered with hair! This WR24, if you're willing to sink to these easy picks, will finish top-15WR this year. Wayne is aging, Garcon is entering his third year in the season and is ready to break 1,000 yards. Expect a career year for a more focused than ever Manning, and expect Garcon to reap the rewards.
TE
Todd Heap
Everyone laughs at Todd Heap because he's old. Look, my dad's old, and I don't laugh at him every time he walks into the room. But Todd's only 30, which means he's younger than me, and it sort of pisses me off when you guys keep laughing at him just because he's old. I get that he's a few seasons removed from his 70+ catch streak, but he'll approach those numbers again this year. Why? Because Anquan Boldin will be hurt at some point. And Derrick Mason's wheels will come off. And Ray Rice is a nice safety valve, but you can't do that all day long and win. You'll see a steady dose of Healthy Heap over the middle this season. Did you see what he did to the Giants in the last preseason game? I know it's just preseason and I know nobody cares, but Flacco will target his nads off (approaching the 100+ targets of some years ago, and sufficient to get him the production he needs to be a top-5-7 TE this season, which is pretty sweet for a consensus 20+ ranked TE). Bottom line? I think we'll see at the end of the season that the only folks in the room laughing will be Todd Heap and the people who drafted him.
Bonus: Heath Miller
This borders on shark-level, but I'll toss it out there anyway just so we can laugh at the guy who stoops to taking him. Miller is going to dominate this year. Let me say this again so you understand. Dominate. His 98 targets and 5 TDs from 2009 will inflate to 120+ and 10+, and all of the sudden we'll all be sitting in a circle saying "jumpin' moses, when the hell did Heath Miller get so good." He got so good right about ..... now. And you were on notice. The QB situation is a mess, which means lots of short passes to the best receiver on the squad. They gave up Santonio, which was a colossal mistake. But here they are. And here Miller is. He's something like the 10-12 ranked TE going into the season, so top-3 TE isn't a huge stretch, but it's probably happening. I just don't want to make he easy picks here, so give me Heap. More bragging power.
K
?
If you're drafting online, a hawk puts his kicker selection on autodraft, because he knows the kicker position is just a giant roulette wheel and he's got another draft going simultaneously with more important picks to make. If you need to be smart, Neil Rackers was our pick two weeks ago when he was ranked somewhere in the 20's. Now that he's "won the job" (a job he'd really won the day they signed him up), he's shooting up closer to the top-10 in kickers. He's one of the best kickers in the NFL and will be a top-3 kicker this year, in part because Andre Johnson will catch a million touchdowns and in part because the highly overrated Arian Foster will struggle in the red zone and he'll get a bunch of FG attempts as a result. But again, I'm not suggesting you pick him. I'm telling you (like you even need me to, fellow hawk???) to, if you're at a life draft, set up a really elaborate shtick with a dart board and the available kickers on the board, and walk to the other side of the room with a handful of darts, and put on a blindfold, and start hucking, because that's the only way you can prove to the rest of the room that you know that the kicker position is a crapshoot that totally and completely doesn't matter.
Good luck in 2010, fellow kings of the sky.
-Otis and Out