Coby Fleener (1 Viewer)

[Longtucky Lemmings]

While it doesn't seem to me that rookie TE's typically produce high-end numbers Fleener does seem to be in a pretty unique position:

1) Likely starter right off the bat

2) Unique athleticism and pass-catching abilities

3) Super-talented QB

4) Long history with his QB

5) QB is a rookie and, while Luck "Seems" to be a pretty special rookie he is still an NFL rookie who will likely look to "safety valves"

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers? Does Fleener have a legitimate chance of doing this?

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers?

This guy did pretty well as a rookie (top 5 in my main league).Oh...and this guy was #9 TE as a rookie that same year.

So yes, a rookie TE has produced TE1 numbers. I'm certain there have been others besides these two, but they seemed so obvious I had to point them out. And yes, Fleener has an outside chance at it, IMO. But if I had to lay down a bet, I'd bet he finishes lower than TE12.

 

[Longtucky Lemmings]

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers?

This guy did pretty well as a rookie (top 5 in my main league).Oh...and this guy was #9 TE as a rookie that same year.

So yes, a rookie TE has produced TE1 numbers. I'm certain there have been others besides these two, but they seemed so obvious I had to point them out. And yes, Fleener has an outside chance at it, IMO. But if I had to lay down a bet, I'd bet he finishes lower than TE12.

I wonder what Gronk's rookie numbers would have been like had it been just him as the primary pass-catching TE in NE. Fleener should not have a Hernandez-type to compete with for catches.So, here's a question....what kind of numbers do people think Fleener is capable of? 60/700/6? More?

 

[msommer]

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers?

This guy did pretty well as a rookie (top 5 in my main league).Oh...and this guy was #9 TE as a rookie that same year.

So yes, a rookie TE has produced TE1 numbers. I'm certain there have been others besides these two, but they seemed so obvious I had to point them out. And yes, Fleener has an outside chance at it, IMO. But if I had to lay down a bet, I'd bet he finishes lower than TE12.

I wonder what Gronk's rookie numbers would have been like had it been just him as the primary pass-catching TE in NE. Fleener should not have a Hernandez-type to compete with for catches.So, here's a question....what kind of numbers do people think Fleener is capable of? 60/700/6? More?

What about Dwayne Allen? (Given Gronkowaki and Hernandez are being used as examples). Actually, Waldman calls Allen the Gronkowski of the two...

 

[zed2283]

 

[Longtucky Lemmings]

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers?

This guy did pretty well as a rookie (top 5 in my main league).Oh...and this guy was #9 TE as a rookie that same year.

So yes, a rookie TE has produced TE1 numbers. I'm certain there have been others besides these two, but they seemed so obvious I had to point them out. And yes, Fleener has an outside chance at it, IMO. But if I had to lay down a bet, I'd bet he finishes lower than TE12.

I wonder what Gronk's rookie numbers would have been like had it been just him as the primary pass-catching TE in NE. Fleener should not have a Hernandez-type to compete with for catches.So, here's a question....what kind of numbers do people think Fleener is capable of? 60/700/6? More?

What about Dwayne Allen? (Given Gronkowaki and Hernandez are being used as examples). Actually, Waldman calls Allen the Gronkowski of the two...

I could be totally off-base but I was under the understanding that Allen was going to be used primarily as a blocking TE

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers?

This guy did pretty well as a rookie (top 5 in my main league).Oh...and this guy was #9 TE as a rookie that same year.

So yes, a rookie TE has produced TE1 numbers. I'm certain there have been others besides these two, but they seemed so obvious I had to point them out. And yes, Fleener has an outside chance at it, IMO. But if I had to lay down a bet, I'd bet he finishes lower than TE12.

I wonder what Gronk's rookie numbers would have been like had it been just him as the primary pass-catching TE in NE. Fleener should not have a Hernandez-type to compete with for catches.So, here's a question....what kind of numbers do people think Fleener is capable of? 60/700/6? More?

What about Dwayne Allen? (Given Gronkowaki and Hernandez are being used as examples). Actually, Waldman calls Allen the Gronkowski of the two...

I could be totally off-base but I was under the understanding that Allen was going to be used primarily as a blocking TE

playing inline b/c you can block and being a blocking specialist are 2 totally different things.

 

[Longtucky Lemmings]

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers?

This guy did pretty well as a rookie (top 5 in my main league).Oh...and this guy was #9 TE as a rookie that same year.

So yes, a rookie TE has produced TE1 numbers. I'm certain there have been others besides these two, but they seemed so obvious I had to point them out. And yes, Fleener has an outside chance at it, IMO. But if I had to lay down a bet, I'd bet he finishes lower than TE12.

I wonder what Gronk's rookie numbers would have been like had it been just him as the primary pass-catching TE in NE. Fleener should not have a Hernandez-type to compete with for catches.So, here's a question....what kind of numbers do people think Fleener is capable of? 60/700/6? More?

What about Dwayne Allen? (Given Gronkowaki and Hernandez are being used as examples). Actually, Waldman calls Allen the Gronkowski of the two...

I could be totally off-base but I was under the understanding that Allen was going to be used primarily as a blocking TE

playing inline b/c you can block and being a blocking specialist are 2 totally different things.

Good point

 

[Shutout]

I wouldn't be surprised (I expect, actually), that Allen's use and production will be very similar to Fleener's.

I'd say its very plausible that Fleener will be a better FF TE because Luck might give him more looks in a redzone situation or something, but I don't think it will be overall very different and they will probably hold each other back overall as they share.

Related but not kinda: I think Allen might be one of the best bargains of the rookie FF draft. I don't think I saw him go higher than mid-late 3rd in any draft so far and think he can easily be just as productive as fleener, who seemed to go 1.11 in every draft I've seen. And I don't think that's odd because it seems like when really talented guys go to perceived bad locations or places where the "experts" say "It's gonna take time to develop", they fall out of sight, out of mind. That's basically what happened to Graham and Gronk. For different reasons, they were perceived as talented yet not in the best situation on the team or needed time to develop and...they did.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if next year at this time, we see both these guys very much closer in value.

 

[flc735]

he has a rookie qb, bad offense and isn't the talent than gronk is

i say he is most likely to finish like pettigrew/gresham did. they seemed to have the same type of talent as fleener does when they were rookies

50/525/4 ish

 

[comfortably numb]

Colston had a great year at TE his rookie year.

 

[Warhogs]

This might be reaching a bit too far back for some but Keith Jackson started out very strong as a rookie. Here is a blurb from his biography. I remember how great his rookie year was at the time.

After being drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles in 1988, Jackson recorded 81 receptions for 869 yards, and 6 touchdowns in his first season

 

[Scooby1974]

Colston had a great year at TE his rookie year.

Wasn't Colston a TE in name only? I seem to recall them using him as a WR, split out, most of the time.

 

[Scooby1974]

I'm betting that Fleener will produce in the #12-#18 range this year as Indy has a LOT of work to do on offense in 2012 and beyond. If he starts to do anything, I could see Defenses adjusting quickly to roll coverage over to him due to a 31 year old Reggie Wayne being the lone veteran receiving threat (unless you call Collie and his applesauce for a brain a threat as well). This offense is going to take some lumps, it is no NE situation where Gronk and Hernandez has a Pro-Bowl and multiple Super Bowl winning QB tossing to them. I think Allen will have an easier time seeing the ball due to being the inline TE and being able to get open underneath after releasing from the line. Much depends upon Luck and his ability to move the offense. Indy will no doubt be playing from behind much of the time, so the opportunities to catch will certainly come.

 

[Warhogs]

I'm just not sold on Fleener and avoided him in all my dynasty drafts. I did not see the value when he was being drafted late round 1 to early round 2 in my rookie drafts.

 

[SWC]

keith jackson was awesome as a rookie it was like razorsharp randall the runner cunningham had radar lock on him so take that to the bank but it has been a long time since then man a long time with a lot of rough road in there for some of us

 

[UKColt]

I think Allen is a good deep sleeper because he'll be on the field more, as his blocking is better than Fleener's.

I think Fleener will mainly be fantasy relevant because Luck will target him in the red zone. Fleener only had 34 receptions last year at Standford, but 10 of them were TDs. Luck clearly loves throwing to him in the end zone and I think that will continue in the NFL.

 

[EBF]

Allen and Fleener are completely different players. Fleener has range and deep speed to make plays downfield that Allen can only dream of. Allen is probably stronger and laterally quicker, so I'd expect him to be more effective than Fleener on short routes.

I don't really know what to make of the situation for FF purposes. Fleener is the more dynamic talent. He's a good player and I expect him to have some big moments in the NFL. On the other hand, he's basically a finished product (very old for a rookie) and he had a tendency to get dinged up in college. He must've been knocked out of 2-3 games last season alone. He is my #1 TE in this rookie class, but I could see him being a bit frustrating as a pro.

Best case scenario is probably something like Todd Heap. Worst case scenario is more like a John Carlson type.

 

[jurb26]

Allen and Fleener are completely different players. Fleener has range and deep speed to make plays downfield that Allen can only dream of. Allen is probably stronger and laterally quicker, so I'd expect him to be more effective than Fleener on short routes. I don't really know what to make of the situation for FF purposes. Fleener is the more dynamic talent. He's a good player and I expect him to have some big moments in the NFL. On the other hand, he's basically a finished product (very old for a rookie) and he had a tendency to get dinged up in college. He must've been knocked out of 2-3 games last season alone. He is my #1 TE in this rookie class, but I could see him being a bit frustrating as a pro. Best case scenario is probably something like Todd Heap. Worst case scenario is more like a John Carlson type.

For long term, I prefer Allen. I think he has more unharnessed potential to build on. So agree with you that Fleener is more a finished product. It's also hard to get past the fact that he Lready has such a great chemistry with Luck due to their college careers. For their rookie years, Fleener is clearly. Better bet. In 3 years however I can see Allen overtaking him. I like Allen's value in dynasty a lot.Really hate doing this on iPad...

 

[msommer]

From NFL.com's training camp coverage link

Allen: Fleener's ticketed for a role as a "matchup" guy in Indianapolis' offense, and likely will play more as the in-line tight end. Allen, on the other hand, will be the jack of all trades. The Clemson product has been a quick study, learning a number of positions on the fly and displaying an ability to contribute in a variety of ways. The Colts had New England's Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez combo in mind when they took tight ends in back-to-back rounds in April. The early signs are encouraging.

 

[Shutout]

I wouldn't be surprised (I expect, actually), that Allen's use and production will be very similar to Fleener's.

I'd say its very plausible that Fleener will be a better FF TE because Luck might give him more looks in a redzone situation or something, but I don't think it will be overall very different and they will probably hold each other back overall as they share.

Related but not kinda: I think Allen might be one of the best bargains of the rookie FF draft. I don't think I saw him go higher than mid-late 3rd in any draft so far and think he can easily be just as productive as fleener, who seemed to go 1.11 in every draft I've seen. And I don't think that's odd because it seems like when really talented guys go to perceived bad locations or places where the "experts" say "It's gonna take time to develop", they fall out of sight, out of mind. That's basically what happened to Graham and Gronk. For different reasons, they were perceived as talented yet not in the best situation on the team or needed time to develop and...they did.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if next year at this time, we see both these guys very much closer in value.

Some talk up of Allen today. Looks positive. I'm still optimistic for him.ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky observes that third-round TE Dwayne Allen "looks like he was built for" Bruce Arians' offense.

Allen rivals Titans pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley for most impressive AFC South newcomer in Kuharsky's camp watching. Allen is slated for the "F" spot in Arians offense, which is a "move" tight end in the Aaron Hernandez mold. "For his size and the things he's doing, it's incredible," said teammate T.Y. Hilton. "I haven't seen anyone like him." Second-rounder Coby Fleener is no longer a lock to outproduce Allen as a rookie.

ESPN.com for more info

 

[BigTex]

Im a huge fan of Allen's, will gladly draft him in the third in my rookie drafts...he's a monster!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Rookie TEs traditionally are fanatsy afterthoughts. Here's the greatest rookie TE seasons of all time. As you can see rookie TE1s are few and far between. Avoid in re-drafts.

Rank Player Year Rec Yards TDs Fantasy Points

1 Mike Ditka 1961 56 1076 12 235.6

2 Keith Jackson 1988 81 869 6 203.9

3 Charle Young 1973 55 854 6 176.4

4 Cam Cleeland 1998 54 684 6 158.4

5 Junior Miller 1980 46 584 9 158.4

6 Rob Gronkowski 2010 42 546 10 156.6

7 John Carlson 2008 55 627 5 147.7

8 Raymond Chester 1970 42 556 7 139.6

9 Aaron Hernandez 2010 45 563 6 137.3

10 Robert Awalt 1987 42 526 6 130.6

11 Ken Dilger 1995 42 635 4 129.5

12 Bob Tucker 1970 40 571 5 127.1

13 J. Gresham 2010 52 471 4 123.1

14 Pete Lammons 1966 41 565 4 121.5

 

[FUBAR]

Has a rookie TE ever produced TE1 numbers?

This guy did pretty well as a rookie (top 5 in my main league).Oh...and this guy was #9 TE as a rookie that same year.

So yes, a rookie TE has produced TE1 numbers. I'm certain there have been others besides these two, but they seemed so obvious I had to point them out. And yes, Fleener has an outside chance at it, IMO. But if I had to lay down a bet, I'd bet he finishes lower than TE12.

Luck isn't Brady. Yet anyway.

 

[Shutout]

Rookie TEs traditionally are fanatsy afterthoughts. Here's the greatest rookie TE seasons of all time. As you can see rookie TE1s are few and far between. Avoid in re-drafts.Rank Player Year Rec Yards TDs Fantasy Points1 Mike Ditka 1961 56 1076 12 235.62 Keith Jackson 1988 81 869 6 203.93 Charle Young 1973 55 854 6 176.44 Cam Cleeland 1998 54 684 6 158.45 Junior Miller 1980 46 584 9 158.46 Rob Gronkowski 2010 42 546 10 156.67 John Carlson 2008 55 627 5 147.78 Raymond Chester 1970 42 556 7 139.69 Aaron Hernandez 2010 45 563 6 137.310 Robert Awalt 1987 42 526 6 130.611 Ken Dilger 1995 42 635 4 129.512 Bob Tucker 1970 40 571 5 127.113 J. Gresham 2010 52 471 4 123.114 Pete Lammons 1966 41 565 4 121.5

How much do you take into consideration that the TE is used much more now vs. the time when most of the guys on this list started (just noticing that 1/3rd of that list is represented in the last 4 years)?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Rookie TEs traditionally are fanatsy afterthoughts. Here's the greatest rookie TE seasons of all time. As you can see rookie TE1s are few and far between. Avoid in re-drafts.Rank Player Year Rec Yards TDs Fantasy Points1 Mike Ditka 1961 56 1076 12 235.62 Keith Jackson 1988 81 869 6 203.93 Charle Young 1973 55 854 6 176.44 Cam Cleeland 1998 54 684 6 158.45 Junior Miller 1980 46 584 9 158.46 Rob Gronkowski 2010 42 546 10 156.67 John Carlson 2008 55 627 5 147.78 Raymond Chester 1970 42 556 7 139.69 Aaron Hernandez 2010 45 563 6 137.310 Robert Awalt 1987 42 526 6 130.611 Ken Dilger 1995 42 635 4 129.512 Bob Tucker 1970 40 571 5 127.113 J. Gresham 2010 52 471 4 123.114 Pete Lammons 1966 41 565 4 121.5

How much do you take into consideration that the TE is used much more now vs. the time when most of the guys on this list started (just noticing that 1/3rd of that list is represented in the last 4 years)?

Sure, things are changing (rookie WRs now make a much bigger impact than in the past as well) but even those recent guys that make the list are not really fantasy TE1s - with the exception of Gronk due to his TDs.I think there's enough depth at the position to ignore the rookies in re-draft leagues.

 

[menobrown]

Rookie TEs traditionally are fanatsy afterthoughts. Here's the greatest rookie TE seasons of all time. As you can see rookie TE1s are few and far between. Avoid in re-drafts.Rank Player Year Rec Yards TDs Fantasy Points1 Mike Ditka 1961 56 1076 12 235.62 Keith Jackson 1988 81 869 6 203.93 Charle Young 1973 55 854 6 176.44 Cam Cleeland 1998 54 684 6 158.45 Junior Miller 1980 46 584 9 158.46 Rob Gronkowski 2010 42 546 10 156.67 John Carlson 2008 55 627 5 147.78 Raymond Chester 1970 42 556 7 139.69 Aaron Hernandez 2010 45 563 6 137.310 Robert Awalt 1987 42 526 6 130.611 Ken Dilger 1995 42 635 4 129.512 Bob Tucker 1970 40 571 5 127.113 J. Gresham 2010 52 471 4 123.114 Pete Lammons 1966 41 565 4 121.5

Why is Shockey not on this list?