Colin Kaepernick is Overrated in FF (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

I think the people bringing up all the historical trends and stats and facts all that that jazz are wasting quite a bit of time."Historically" guys like RG3, Kaepernick, Newton, and Wilson were worthless."Historically" slot WRs weren't very fantasy relevant. "Historically" TEs weren't nearly as fantasy relevant. If all you do is go by history how are you ever going to get players like these guys. If you have the "wait and see" approach you are gonna miss out on almost every up and comer.I am not saying overpay like crazy to get a guy, but the "wait and see" just means you will never own that guy

Nobody is saying that guys like cam, kaep, wilson are worthless. My point is that the majority of success in fantasy sports is the output you receive versus the price you pay. Generally speaking--it is not a good idea to go after guys when their value is at an absolute maximum--because there is a solid chance that you overpay for their output. My point is that if you are going to pay top 3 value for a guy-- he better be a proven guy. If I'm going to pay top 3 value for a qb--his last name better be rodgers, brady or brees. It's about risk versus reward. You want to build your team around proven guys and sprinkle in some calculated risk. I personally can't justify paying top 3 value for a guy who has had one half of a great season. By no means does that mean that he or those other guys you mention have no value. It just means I will go after them once their prices are more reasonable.

I didnt say pay top 3. I also didnt say anyone said those guys were worthless. I would also probably take Kaepernick over Brady. I think he obviously plays a lot longer, and I think it's very realistic he outscores Brady this year.

 

[ghostguy123]

Love the run+pass QB combo in FF, no matter who it is. Add in a winning team, 56 yard runs, great RB threats to take away the defensive overloading, awesome.But:what do people of the 9ers moving forward? I realize they just keep loading so it looks like the rich are just getting richer but they were 11-4-1 last year. The Rams are improving, the Hawks are improving, do they go down, up or stay the same?

Staying the same would be fine, right? I say 11-5 is about right, maybe 12-4.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

If the reason Cam struggled from weeks 1-8 is because defenses figured him out, then what's the explanation for weeks 9-17? Over that span, he was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Did defenses unfigure him out? I think the "defenses figured him out" narrative is too simple to really explain Cam Newton's season last year- you really do have to look at the role his offensive system played, as well as remember that splits sometimes happen for no reason whatsoever- it is the nature of random variation to create plenty of hot and cold streaks due to sheer randomness. Also worth pointing out that even during his cold stretch (weeks 1-8), Newton was 13th in fantasy points and 3rd in YPA. That's a lot better than most players' cold stretches will tend to be.

Did you read my response--Cam started off the season slow because defenses adjusted to him--and another poster brought up some points about strategies within the Panthers that could have also contributed to a slow start. By midway through the season, both cam and the panthers made tweeks and adjustments to counter what defenses were doing--and it worked. My main point is that during Cam's rookie season--people were saying that he was also a top 2-3 dynasty stud qb--and if you gave up the bank or dismantled your team for him in hopes of winning last year--the odds are that you ended up being disappointed. The point is that the prime time to have bought Cam would have been in the first half of last season and not when his price was at a maximum--which was during his rookie season. I don't understand why that concept is hard to understand nor why people seem offended by it. Cam is a great quarterback--but he wasn't worth acquiring at top 3 pricing--nor is Kaep. Can I make it clearer that this doesn't mean that I think Cam is not great.

 

[drummer]

Love the run+pass QB combo in FF, no matter who it is. Add in a winning team, 56 yard runs, great RB threats to take away the defensive overloading, awesome.But:what do people of the 9ers moving forward? I realize they just keep loading so it looks like the rich are just getting richer but they were 11-4-1 last year. The Rams are improving, the Hawks are improving, do they go down, up or stay the same?

Staying the same would be fine, right? I say 11-5 is about right, maybe 12-4.

I'll say 10-6. Passing numbers up due to defense numbers not as good as the last two seasons. Plus, who knows if they drop off in the run game, but Gore will be one year older, and the other 2 backs are still smallish.

 

[Chachi]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

If the reason Cam struggled from weeks 1-8 is because defenses figured him out, then what's the explanation for weeks 9-17? Over that span, he was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Did defenses unfigure him out? I think the "defenses figured him out" narrative is too simple to really explain Cam Newton's season last year- you really do have to look at the role his offensive system played, as well as remember that splits sometimes happen for no reason whatsoever- it is the nature of random variation to create plenty of hot and cold streaks due to sheer randomness. Also worth pointing out that even during his cold stretch (weeks 1-8), Newton was 13th in fantasy points and 3rd in YPA. That's a lot better than most players' cold stretches will tend to be.

Did you read my response--Cam started off the season slow because defenses adjusted to him--and another poster brought up some points about strategies within the Panthers that could have also contributed to a slow start. By midway through the season, both cam and the panthers made tweeks and adjustments to counter what defenses were doing--and it worked. My main point is that during Cam's rookie season--people were saying that he was also a top 2-3 dynasty stud qb--and if you gave up the bank or dismantled your team for him in hopes of winning last year--the odds are that you ended up being disappointed. The point is that the prime time to have bought Cam would have been in the first half of last season and not when his price was at a maximum--which was during his rookie season. I don't understand why that concept is hard to understand nor why people seem offended by it. Cam is a great quarterback--but he wasn't worth acquiring at top 3 pricing--nor is Kaep. Can I make it clearer that this doesn't mean that I think Cam is not great.

Are you a football psychologist or something? You speak with authority about why cam plays good or bad. It smells fishy to me, not buying your logic.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

If the reason Cam struggled from weeks 1-8 is because defenses figured him out, then what's the explanation for weeks 9-17? Over that span, he was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Did defenses unfigure him out? I think the "defenses figured him out" narrative is too simple to really explain Cam Newton's season last year- you really do have to look at the role his offensive system played, as well as remember that splits sometimes happen for no reason whatsoever- it is the nature of random variation to create plenty of hot and cold streaks due to sheer randomness. Also worth pointing out that even during his cold stretch (weeks 1-8), Newton was 13th in fantasy points and 3rd in YPA. That's a lot better than most players' cold stretches will tend to be.

Did you read my response--Cam started off the season slow because defenses adjusted to him--and another poster brought up some points about strategies within the Panthers that could have also contributed to a slow start. By midway through the season, both cam and the panthers made tweeks and adjustments to counter what defenses were doing--and it worked. My main point is that during Cam's rookie season--people were saying that he was also a top 2-3 dynasty stud qb--and if you gave up the bank or dismantled your team for him in hopes of winning last year--the odds are that you ended up being disappointed. The point is that the prime time to have bought Cam would have been in the first half of last season and not when his price was at a maximum--which was during his rookie season. I don't understand why that concept is hard to understand nor why people seem offended by it. Cam is a great quarterback--but he wasn't worth acquiring at top 3 pricing--nor is Kaep. Can I make it clearer that this doesn't mean that I think Cam is not great.

Are you a football psychologist or something? You speak with authority about why cam plays good or bad. It smells fishy to me, not buying your logic.

Okay--so explain to me why an "alleged" top 3 elite qb like Cam would be average/below average for the entire first half of a season? The notion that defenses possibly caught up to him a bit makes me a psychologist? Are we to believe that he just lost skills for the first seven games and somehow re-acquired them for the rest of the season? Professional sports is about making adjustments and tweeks to be more successful. If you want to chime in and question my point of view--why don't you offer a better one. I take it that your point of view is that defenses had nothing to do with cam having a slow start to last season, and his team didn't make any adjustments to his game and their strategies didn't help things out. I only brought Cam up as a comparison to why I wouldn't overpay for Kaep at this very point of time--what is the big deal. Let it go. If you want to overpay for kaep and cam--go for it. I have a right to have a point of view without being called a fishy psychologist.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I think the people bringing up all the historical trends and stats and facts all that that jazz are wasting quite a bit of time.

"Historically" guys like RG3, Kaepernick, Newton, and Wilson were worthless.

"Historically" slot WRs weren't very fantasy relevant.

"Historically" TEs weren't nearly as fantasy relevant.

If all you do is go by history how are you ever going to get players like these guys. If you have the "wait and see" approach you are gonna miss out on almost every up and comer.

I am not saying overpay like crazy to get a guy, but the "wait and see" just means you will never own that guy

Nobody is saying that guys like cam, kaep, wilson are worthless. My point is that the majority of success in fantasy sports is the output you receive versus the price you pay. Generally speaking--it is not a good idea to go after guys when their value is at an absolute maximum--because there is a solid chance that you overpay for their output. My point is that if you are going to pay top 3 value for a guy-- he better be a proven guy. If I'm going to pay top 3 value for a qb--his last name better be rodgers, brady or brees. It's about risk versus reward. You want to build your team around proven guys and sprinkle in some calculated risk. I personally can't justify paying top 3 value for a guy who has had one half of a great season. By no means does that mean that he or those other guys you mention have no value. It just means I will go after them once their prices are more reasonable.

Interesting. I just bought Kaepernick in a league with...unusual setup. The price I paid for Kaep was < 1/2 the price another owner paid for Rodgers maybe 1-2 days earlier. Not sure what he's going for in other leagues.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Okay--so explain to me why an "alleged" top 3 elite qb like Cam would be average/below average for the entire first half of a season? The notion that defenses possibly caught up to him a bit makes me a psychologist? Are we to believe that he just lost skills for the first seven games and somehow re-acquired them for the rest of the season?

I'm late to this party, but have you shared actual data to back up this supposition? Cam's first 7 gamesassing: 121 for 212, 57% completion, 1701 yds, 5 TDs, 8 INTsRushing: 51 for 310 yds, 3 TDsFantasy points (standard scoring): 125.64 points; ~17.9 ppgCam's last 9 gamesassing: 159 for 273, 58% completion, 2168 yds, 14 TDs, 4 INTsRushing: 76 for 431 yds, 5 TDsFantasy points (standard scoring): 235.82 points; ~26.2 ppgOf course, in the 1st half of the season he had to face the Seahawks, Bears and Giants. So this could just be a combo of small sample size and tough strength of schedule in the 1st half....

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I think if you landed kaepernick for less than half of the price that Rodgers went for you in your league--you did very well. The risk versus reward in your scenario makes a lot of sense. At that price it is a calculated risk that is absolutely worth taking. The original poster mentioned that he had seen kaep going for top 3 dynasty value--and I think that top 3 value for him is not worth the risk. I do think Kaep is a great player and I think you should feel solid about the deal you made.

I think the people bringing up all the historical trends and stats and facts all that that jazz are wasting quite a bit of time.

"Historically" guys like RG3, Kaepernick, Newton, and Wilson were worthless.

"Historically" slot WRs weren't very fantasy relevant.

"Historically" TEs weren't nearly as fantasy relevant.

If all you do is go by history how are you ever going to get players like these guys. If you have the "wait and see" approach you are gonna miss out on almost every up and comer.

I am not saying overpay like crazy to get a guy, but the "wait and see" just means you will never own that guy

Nobody is saying that guys like cam, kaep, wilson are worthless. My point is that the majority of success in fantasy sports is the output you receive versus the price you pay. Generally speaking--it is not a good idea to go after guys when their value is at an absolute maximum--because there is a solid chance that you overpay for their output. My point is that if you are going to pay top 3 value for a guy-- he better be a proven guy. If I'm going to pay top 3 value for a qb--his last name better be rodgers, brady or brees. It's about risk versus reward. You want to build your team around proven guys and sprinkle in some calculated risk. I personally can't justify paying top 3 value for a guy who has had one half of a great season. By no means does that mean that he or those other guys you mention have no value. It just means I will go after them once their prices are more reasonable.

Interesting. I just bought Kaepernick in a league with...unusual setup. The price I paid for Kaep was < 1/2 the price another owner paid for Rodgers maybe 1-2 days earlier. Not sure what he's going for in other leagues.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Okay--so explain to me why an "alleged" top 3 elite qb like Cam would be average/below average for the entire first half of a season? The notion that defenses possibly caught up to him a bit makes me a psychologist? Are we to believe that he just lost skills for the first seven games and somehow re-acquired them for the rest of the season?

I'm late to this party, but have you shared actual data to back up this supposition? Cam's first 7 gamesassing: 121 for 212, 57% completion, 1701 yds, 5 TDs, 8 INTsRushing: 51 for 310 yds, 3 TDsFantasy points (standard scoring): 125.64 points; ~17.9 ppgCam's last 9 gamesassing: 159 for 273, 58% completion, 2168 yds, 14 TDs, 4 INTsRushing: 76 for 431 yds, 5 TDsFantasy points (standard scoring): 235.82 points; ~26.2 ppgOf course, in the 1st half of the season he had to face the Seahawks, Bears and Giants. So this could just be a combo of small sample size and tough strength of schedule in the 1st half....

Are you not getting my point? People were paying top 2-3 qb dynasty value for him in his rookie year. Overall his numbers weren't bad--but relative to what people had paid for him--his first half of the season--nor were his entire season numbers--as good as brady, rodgers, or brees. People paid for top 2-3 talent and ended up with top 5-6 talent--that is not great value. I'm not saying cam is bad--I'm just saying he wasn't a bargain for what people had paid for him in his rookie season. Does that make sense? People who traded first round picks for cam could have landed a doug martin or trent richardson and settled for a decent quarterback like a matt ryan or tony romo. It's about return on investment-- I'm not saying cam is bad.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Okay--so explain to me why an "alleged" top 3 elite qb like Cam would be average/below average for the entire first half of a season? The notion that defenses possibly caught up to him a bit makes me a psychologist? Are we to believe that he just lost skills for the first seven games and somehow re-acquired them for the rest of the season?

I'm late to this party, but have you shared actual data to back up this supposition? Cam's first 7 games:

Passing: 121 for 212, 57% completion, 1701 yds, 5 TDs, 8 INTs

Rushing: 51 for 310 yds, 3 TDs

Fantasy points (standard scoring): 125.64 points; ~17.9 ppg

Cam's last 9 games:

Passing: 159 for 273, 58% completion, 2168 yds, 14 TDs, 4 INTs

Rushing: 76 for 431 yds, 5 TDs

Fantasy points (standard scoring): 235.82 points; ~26.2 ppg

Of course, in the 1st half of the season he had to face the Seahawks, Bears and Giants. So this could just be a combo of small sample size and tough strength of schedule in the 1st half....

Are you not getting my point? People were paying top 2-3 qb dynasty value for him in his rookie year. Overall his numbers weren't bad--but relative to what people had paid for him--his first half of the season--nor were his entire season numbers--as good as brady, rodgers, or brees. People paid for top 2-3 talent and ended up with top 5-6 talent--that is not great value. I'm not saying cam is bad--I'm just saying he wasn't a bargain for what people had paid for him in his rookie season. Does that make sense? People who traded first round picks for cam could have landed a doug martin or trent richardson and settled for a decent quarterback like a matt ryan or tony romo. It's about return on investment-- I'm not saying cam is bad.

Um, yeah, I got your point. I just hadn't seen a post where anyone broke down his actual 1st half vs 2nd half stats. As noted above. Sorry, but after years in the Shark Pool I don't take any facts for granted - prefer to see the facts on paper vs. assertions. Comprende?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Okay--so explain to me why an "alleged" top 3 elite qb like Cam would be average/below average for the entire first half of a season? The notion that defenses possibly caught up to him a bit makes me a psychologist? Are we to believe that he just lost skills for the first seven games and somehow re-acquired them for the rest of the season?

I'm late to this party, but have you shared actual data to back up this supposition? Cam's first 7 games:

Passing: 121 for 212, 57% completion, 1701 yds, 5 TDs, 8 INTs

Rushing: 51 for 310 yds, 3 TDs

Fantasy points (standard scoring): 125.64 points; ~17.9 ppg

Cam's last 9 games:

Passing: 159 for 273, 58% completion, 2168 yds, 14 TDs, 4 INTs

Rushing: 76 for 431 yds, 5 TDs

Fantasy points (standard scoring): 235.82 points; ~26.2 ppg

Of course, in the 1st half of the season he had to face the Seahawks, Bears and Giants. So this could just be a combo of small sample size and tough strength of schedule in the 1st half....

Are you not getting my point? People were paying top 2-3 qb dynasty value for him in his rookie year. Overall his numbers weren't bad--but relative to what people had paid for him--his first half of the season--nor were his entire season numbers--as good as brady, rodgers, or brees. People paid for top 2-3 talent and ended up with top 5-6 talent--that is not great value. I'm not saying cam is bad--I'm just saying he wasn't a bargain for what people had paid for him in his rookie season. Does that make sense? People who traded first round picks for cam could have landed a doug martin or trent richardson and settled for a decent quarterback like a matt ryan or tony romo. It's about return on investment-- I'm not saying cam is bad.

Um, yeah, I got your point. I just hadn't seen a post where anyone broke down his actual 1st half vs 2nd half stats. As noted above. Sorry, but after years in the Shark Pool I don't take any facts for granted - prefer to see the facts on paper vs. assertions. Comprende?

I understand where you are coming from. It was just frustrating for me to use Cam as an example of return on investment in regards to the Kaep posting and then have to defend the tangents that seem to have arisen from it. My apologies if I came across as being rude to you--and I hope this exchange marks the end of posters thinking that I think Cam is a bust. Let's stick to the topic of Kaep's value from this point on.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

 

[Deamon]

So where does CK rank in terms of keeper qbs? I'm not in any dynasty leagues, but am in a keep 4 league and on the fence on whether or not to keep him. I can't find many rankings for him this year, but dynasty seems to have him around #9.

 

[ghostguy123]

Even if he ends up being the top scoring qb every year for 5 years, will he score enough above the other top qbs to make it worth the crazy prices some people are paying??

Adding a few points a week at the qb spot probably isn't worth the toll it is going to take on the rest of your lineup giving away so many resources.

 

[Concept Coop]

Even if he ends up being the top scoring qb every year for 5 years, will he score enough above the other top qbs to make it worth the crazy prices some people are paying?? Adding a few points a week at the qb spot probably isn't worth the toll it is going to take on the rest of your lineup giving away so many resources.

I think price to acquire is subjective and will depend a lot on league. Personally, I am not even interested in paying market value for Rodgers, Luck, or RG3. I'd rather take the cheapest option on tier 2, which is big right now. But I do think Kaepernick is in the top 7 or 8 dyasty QBs. I have him behind these guys (not in order):NewtonRodgersLuckBreesWilsonRG3Then there is Ryan, Brady, Stafford, who are all close in value as well. Looking at it that way, I do agree that he is being over paid for right now. But I do get the hype, and fully expect him to eventually be a top 5 dynasty QB.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

I was thinking it would be bumped after he gets hurt I like his talent but I'm willing to be late to this party in favor of:BreesBradyRodgersManningGriffenRyanNewtonRomoLuckStaffordWilsonAnd maybe Dalton or Freeman

 

[tdmills]

Even if he ends up being the top scoring qb every year for 5 years, will he score enough above the other top qbs to make it worth the crazy prices some people are paying??

Adding a few points a week at the qb spot probably isn't worth the toll it is going to take on the rest of your lineup giving away so many resources.

I think price to acquire is subjective and will depend a lot on league. Personally, I am not even interested in paying market value for Rodgers, Luck, or RG3. I'd rather take the cheapest option on tier 2, which is big right now. But I do think Kaepernick is in the top 7 or 8 dyasty QBs. I have him behind these guys (not in order):

Newton

Rodgers

Luck

Brees

Wilson

RG3

Then there is Ryan, Brady, Stafford, who are all close in value as well.

Looking at it that way, I do agree that he is being over paid for right now. But I do get the hype, and fully expect him to eventually be a top 5 dynasty QB.

It's all about price for me, not about Kaepernick.Why do you believe he will eventually be a top 5 dynasty QB, this is what made me start the thread

 

[tdmills]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

Then you don't get the point of it. It's in regards to the price/expectation of Kaepernick right now. If Harbaugh changes to the fun n gun, Kaepernick has 500 pass attempts, that would change my opinion.

 

[Concept Coop]

Why do you believe he will eventually be a top 5 dynasty QB, this is what made me start the thread

I like his talent. I like the potential he offers on the ground. He's a smart kid and I expect him to develop; he's a hard worker in a perfect situation. There are guys I would take over him now, in a vacuum, because they offer more immediate production. But I think the 49ers will lean on him more and more as he becomes a better player.

It's all about price for me, not about Kaepernick.

I agree, but I think that applies to just about the entire field. I'd much rather have Brady, Stafford, Wilson (wishful thinking), or even Tony Romo at their current prices, then treat a QB as a top 15 dynasty player. So, I think the price of the QB is too high, not just Kaepernick.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

If the reason Cam struggled from weeks 1-8 is because defenses figured him out, then what's the explanation for weeks 9-17? Over that span, he was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Did defenses unfigure him out? I think the "defenses figured him out" narrative is too simple to really explain Cam Newton's season last year- you really do have to look at the role his offensive system played, as well as remember that splits sometimes happen for no reason whatsoever- it is the nature of random variation to create plenty of hot and cold streaks due to sheer randomness. Also worth pointing out that even during his cold stretch (weeks 1-8), Newton was 13th in fantasy points and 3rd in YPA. That's a lot better than most players' cold stretches will tend to be.

The "defenses figured X" out is such a tired meme. Do offensive players never figure out defenses? It's Skip Bayless level of analysis.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

If the reason Cam struggled from weeks 1-8 is because defenses figured him out, then what's the explanation for weeks 9-17? Over that span, he was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Did defenses unfigure him out? I think the "defenses figured him out" narrative is too simple to really explain Cam Newton's season last year- you really do have to look at the role his offensive system played, as well as remember that splits sometimes happen for no reason whatsoever- it is the nature of random variation to create plenty of hot and cold streaks due to sheer randomness. Also worth pointing out that even during his cold stretch (weeks 1-8), Newton was 13th in fantasy points and 3rd in YPA. That's a lot better than most players' cold stretches will tend to be.

The "defenses figured X" out is such a tired meme. Do offensive players never figure out defenses? It's Skip Bayless level of analysis.

I don't want to go start another off topic tangent in this thread--as we should really stick to the price Kaep is commanding and if he's worth it--but why are you offended by the notion that defenses adapt to compete against certain players and teams? If you follow professional sports, you know that scouts, analysts, people who watch game tape and take stats are all using advanced metrics. Teams have groups of people who scout every qbs, and opponents teams game tape and understand every tendency they have--and then adjust accordingly. That is not a "skip bayless" level of analysis--that is reality. This is why elite quarterbacks are elite--they can see what a defense is doing and adapt to the adjustments that defenses have made against them. If every qb was great at this--then every qb would be elite. What is your train of thought? You think that NFL defenses can't figure out peoples tendencies? Football is a chess match. The elite qbs are elite because they think steps ahead--they adapt to the adaptations the defenses throw at them. Anyhow, that is my point of view and I'm entitled to it. If you think that's a "tired" point of view--then more power to you.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

If the reason Cam struggled from weeks 1-8 is because defenses figured him out, then what's the explanation for weeks 9-17? Over that span, he was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Did defenses unfigure him out? I think the "defenses figured him out" narrative is too simple to really explain Cam Newton's season last year- you really do have to look at the role his offensive system played, as well as remember that splits sometimes happen for no reason whatsoever- it is the nature of random variation to create plenty of hot and cold streaks due to sheer randomness. Also worth pointing out that even during his cold stretch (weeks 1-8), Newton was 13th in fantasy points and 3rd in YPA. That's a lot better than most players' cold stretches will tend to be.

The "defenses figured X" out is such a tired meme. Do offensive players never figure out defenses? It's Skip Bayless level of analysis.

I don't want to go start another off topic tangent in this thread--as we should really stick to the price Kaep is commanding and if he's worth it--but why are you offended by the notion that defenses adapt to compete against certain players and teams? If you follow professional sports, you know that scouts, analysts, people who watch game tape and take stats are all using advanced metrics. Teams have groups of people who scout every qbs, and opponents teams game tape and understand every tendency they have--and then adjust accordingly. That is not a "skip bayless" level of analysis--that is reality. This is why elite quarterbacks are elite--they can see what a defense is doing and adapt to the adjustments that defenses have made against them. If every qb was great at this--then every qb would be elite. What is your train of thought? You think that NFL defenses can't figure out peoples tendencies? Football is a chess match. The elite qbs are elite because they think steps ahead--they adapt to the adaptations the defenses throw at them. Anyhow, that is my point of view and I'm entitled to it. If you think that's a "tired" point of view--then more power to you.

Bob's comment should probably be added to the thread about not understanding NFL contracts being honored...

 

[ghostguy123]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

I was thinking it would be bumped after he gets hurt I like his talent but I'm willing to be late to this party in favor of:BreesBradyRodgersManningGriffenRyanNewtonRomoLuckStaffordWilsonAnd maybe Dalton or Freeman

Oh my god seriously??

 

[Bigboy10182000]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

I was thinking it would be bumped after he gets hurt I like his talent but I'm willing to be late to this party in favor of:BreesBradyRodgersManningGriffenRyanNewtonRomoLuckStaffordWilsonAnd maybe Dalton or Freeman

Oh my god seriously??

Oh snaps.....yes.

 

[ghostguy123]

Even if he ends up being the top scoring qb every year for 5 years, will he score enough above the other top qbs to make it worth the crazy prices some people are paying??

Adding a few points a week at the qb spot probably isn't worth the toll it is going to take on the rest of your lineup giving away so many resources.

I think price to acquire is subjective and will depend a lot on league. Personally, I am not even interested in paying market value for Rodgers, Luck, or RG3. I'd rather take the cheapest option on tier 2, which is big right now. But I do think Kaepernick is in the top 7 or 8 dyasty QBs. I have him behind these guys (not in order):

Newton

Rodgers

Luck

Brees

Wilson

RG3

Then there is Ryan, Brady, Stafford, who are all close in value as well.

Looking at it that way, I do agree that he is being over paid for right now. But I do get the hype, and fully expect him to eventually be a top 5 dynasty QB.

It's all about price for me, not about Kaepernick.Why do you believe he will eventually be a top 5 dynasty QB, this is what made me start the thread

I think he clearly has a great shot to be a top 5 fantasy QB for a while. He throws accurate on all throws short and long, strong arm, obviously can run like a deer. Maybe most importantly he appears to have a great head on his shoulders, and he plays with a good coach. He also has good talent around him on offense, and I am sure they will add to it at some point.

But like I said, even if I knew for a FACT he would be the #1 fantasy QB for the next 5 years, I wouldn't pay the price I see some people demanding, and in some cases actually paying, to get him.

I don't think he will score enough above the lower QB-1s to make it worth hurting the rest of your team.

 

[Concept Coop]

Oh snaps.....yes.

He was top 10 during the regular season, and averaged 33 points/game in the playoffs. He's 25 years old. Some of those names are head scratchers. Do you expect him to flame out

 

[ghostguy123]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

I was thinking it would be bumped after he gets hurt I like his talent but I'm willing to be late to this party in favor of:BreesBradyRodgersManningGriffenRyanNewtonRomoLuckStaffordWilsonAnd maybe Dalton or Freeman

Oh my god seriously??

Oh snaps.....yes.

I disagree with a few for sure on the top list, but Dalton and Freeman??? I don't mean to be rude, but that is fantasy football idiocy.You aren't late to the party. You missed the party completely, and when you got there you had to drag your girlfriend out of the bed she is sharing with some other dude. That's how late to that party you are.

 

[Chachi]

For the ones saying Kaep is going for too much, examples of these deals you're seeing would be nice to see.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

I was thinking it would be bumped after he gets hurt I like his talent but I'm willing to be late to this party in favor of:

Brees

Brady

Rodgers

Manning

Griffen

Ryan

Newton

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

And maybe Dalton or Freeman

Oh my god seriously??

Oh snaps.....yes.

I disagree with a few for sure on the top list, but Dalton and Freeman??? I don't mean to be rude, but that is fantasy football idiocy.You aren't late to the party. You missed the party completely, and when you got there you had to drag your girlfriend out of the bed she is sharing with some other dude. That's how late to that party you are.

Read the bolded regarding the other two I mentioned. Try better with jokes

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Oh snaps.....yes.

He was top 10 during the regular season, and averaged 33 points/game in the playoffs. He's 25 years old. Some of those names are head scratchers. Do you expect him to flame out

I dont think being in the 12-15 range is "flaming out"...he was hot for a short period of time against awful defenses. He's what you remember last and he did awesome. He's going to be extremely over valued because he's the last thing people have seen. In his regular season he averaged 22.5 ppg in my league which would make him the 11th best QB and .1 ahead of the 12th guy.

 

[ghostguy123]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

I was thinking it would be bumped after he gets hurt I like his talent but I'm willing to be late to this party in favor of:

Brees

Brady

Rodgers

Manning

Griffen

Ryan

Newton

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

And maybe Dalton or Freeman

Oh my god seriously??

Oh snaps.....yes.

I disagree with a few for sure on the top list, but Dalton and Freeman??? I don't mean to be rude, but that is fantasy football idiocy.You aren't late to the party. You missed the party completely, and when you got there you had to drag your girlfriend out of the bed she is sharing with some other dude. That's how late to that party you are.

Read the bolded regarding the other two I mentioned. Try better with jokes

"maybe" was good enough for me to make fun of you about it.

 

[Concept Coop]

I dont think being in the 12-15 range is "flaming out"...he was hot for a short period of time against awful defenses. He's what you remember last and he did awesome. He's going to be extremely over valued because he's the last thing people have seen. In his regular season he averaged 22.5 ppg in my league which would make him the 11th best QB and .1 ahead of the 12th guy.

He was top 11 in his first stretch of games played. He did much better in the playoffs. His fantasy points per attemp (rush/pass) are fantastic. I just have a hard time understanding why we think a guy who was top 10/11 in his first starts, improved drastically on that mark in the playoffs, is going to settle in around 12-15. They are going to use him more, and let him do more, as he improves.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

This thread has the makings of being bumped after years of inactivity when Kaep is the top FF QB in the NFL.

I was thinking it would be bumped after he gets hurt I like his talent but I'm willing to be late to this party in favor of:

Brees

Brady

Rodgers

Manning

Griffen

Ryan

Newton

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

And maybe Dalton or Freeman

Oh my god seriously??

Oh snaps.....yes.

I disagree with a few for sure on the top list, but Dalton and Freeman??? I don't mean to be rude, but that is fantasy football idiocy.You aren't late to the party. You missed the party completely, and when you got there you had to drag your girlfriend out of the bed she is sharing with some other dude. That's how late to that party you are.

Read the bolded regarding the other two I mentioned. Try better with jokes

"maybe" was good enough for me to make fun of you about it.

You're giving yourself too much credit...

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I dont think being in the 12-15 range is "flaming out"...he was hot for a short period of time against awful defenses. He's what you remember last and he did awesome. He's going to be extremely over valued because he's the last thing people have seen. In his regular season he averaged 22.5 ppg in my league which would make him the 11th best QB and .1 ahead of the 12th guy.

He was top 11 in his first stretch of games played. He did much better in the playoffs. His fantasy points per attemp (rush/pass) are fantastic. I just have a hard time understanding why we think a guy who was top 10/11 in his first starts, improved drastically on that mark in the playoffs, is going to settle in around 12-15. They are going to use him more, and let him do more, as he improves.

Because the first thing people do when they see a guy start hot is say "It can and will only get better" and that's not true. Case in point the guy he was .1 ahead of was Matthew Stafford...If he followed this same way of thinking (and he did) he should have been a top 3 guy....I want to see how this style holds up over 16 games and whether or not he was hot or this is just the norm....Right now (3/15/13)I'm betting on Hot meeting crap D's equalling the results you see in this thread....but that's just my bet and I'm willing to show up late to the party

 

[Concept Coop]

Because the first thing people do when they see a guy start hot is say "It can and will only get better" and that's not true. Case in point the guy he was .1 ahead of was Matthew Stafford...If he followed this same way of thinking (and he did) he should have been a top 3 guy....

Using this logic, you'd be late to every party. Am I fair to assume you need Wilson, Luck, RG3 to "do it again" as well? I am trying to understand what it is about Kaepernick that people think won't lead to improvement. But if you have the same stance on all 1st year players, I guess we're having two different conversations.

 

[ghostguy123]

Because the first thing people do when they see a guy start hot is say "It can and will only get better" and that's not true. Case in point the guy he was .1 ahead of was Matthew Stafford...If he followed this same way of thinking (and he did) he should have been a top 3 guy....

Using this logic, you'd be late to every party. Am I fair to assume you need Wilson, Luck, RG3 to "do it again" as well? I am trying to understand what it is about Kaepernick that people think won't lead to improvement. But if you have the same stance on all 1st year players, I guess we're having two different conversations.

It's the ability to figure out which of those guys who have a hot start can actually sustain it. You can't get them all right, but some people certainly seem to be better than others at this.

 

[Concept Coop]

It's the ability to figure out which of those guys who have a hot start can actually sustain it. You can't get them all right, but some people certainly seem to be better than others at this.

Which is fine and what I am asking. What is it about Kaepernick that makes his hot start less likely to lead to future success?

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Because the first thing people do when they see a guy start hot is say "It can and will only get better" and that's not true. Case in point the guy he was .1 ahead of was Matthew Stafford...If he followed this same way of thinking (and he did) he should have been a top 3 guy....

Using this logic, you'd be late to every party. Am I fair to assume you need Wilson, Luck, RG3 to "do it again" as well? I am trying to understand what it is about Kaepernick that people think won't lead to improvement. But if you have the same stance on all 1st year players, I guess we're having two different conversations.

You have to stay with me here. I NEVER said this logic applied to EVERY QB/ player. FWIW, it also applied to Wilson and Luck for me last year but not RGIII. It applied to Brandon Lloyd and Victor Cruz ETC.This isnt the bible for everyone. Just my view(s).

 

[Bigboy10182000]

It's the ability to figure out which of those guys who have a hot start can actually sustain it. You can't get them all right, but some people certainly seem to be better than others at this.

Which is fine and what I am asking. What is it about Kaepernick that makes his hot start less likely to lead to future success?

Because it was a perfect storm (his playoff run) that I do not believe can be replicated.

 

[Concept Coop]

Because it was a perfect storm that I do not believe can be replicated.

You're not giving me much, here. If you opinion is summarized as "just because", that's fine. But not really what I am asking. I am asking WHAT can't be replicated. I am asking for specifics about his game. I am asking why you think a 25 YO kid can't replicate what he did in his first 10 starts. That's quite a claim, that he's had one of his best stretches as a rookie. To make such a claim, I assume you have strong reasons behind it. That's what I am trying to get at. But, again, if you don't, that's fine. If it's your gut, that's fine. Just trying to understand, and maybe there is nothing more to understand than that.

 

[tdmills]

I dont think being in the 12-15 range is "flaming out"...he was hot for a short period of time against awful defenses. He's what you remember last and he did awesome. He's going to be extremely over valued because he's the last thing people have seen. In his regular season he averaged 22.5 ppg in my league which would make him the 11th best QB and .1 ahead of the 12th guy.

He was top 11 in his first stretch of games played. He did much better in the playoffs. His fantasy points per attemp (rush/pass) are fantastic. I just have a hard time understanding why we think a guy who was top 10/11 in his first starts, improved drastically on that mark in the playoffs, is going to settle in around 12-15. They are going to use him more, and let him do more, as he improves.

I'm not saying he will settle 12-15, just odds against him of being top 5.

 

[tdmills]

Because it was a perfect storm that I do not believe can be replicated.

You're not giving me much, here. If you opinion is summarized as "just because", that's fine. But not really what I am asking. I am asking WHAT can't be replicated. I am asking for specifics about his game. I am asking why you think a 25 YO kid can't replicate what he did in his first 10 starts. That's quite a claim, that he's had one of his best stretches as a rookie. To make such a claim, I assume you have strong reasons behind it. That's what I am trying to get at.

But, again, if you don't, that's fine. If it's your gut, that's fine. Just trying to understand, and maybe there is nothing more to understand than that.

He wasn't a rookie

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not saying he will settle 12-15, just odds against him of being top 5.

Why? That is what I am trying to ask. His per attempt (rush and pass) fantasy numbers are through the roof.

 

[tdmills]

I'm not saying he will settle 12-15, just odds against him of being top 5.

Why? That is what I am trying to ask. His per attempt (rush and pass) fantasy numbers are through the roof.

See Post #1I don't think he can sustain the rushing performances of the playoffs.SF doesn't pass enoughHis passing + rushing #'s were only good for 10th in PPG.NFC West has the toughest defenses in football, schedule isn't in his favor.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Because it was a perfect storm that I do not believe can be replicated.

You're not giving me much, here. If you opinion is summarized as "just because", that's fine. But not really what I am asking. I am asking WHAT can't be replicated. I am asking for specifics about his game. I am asking why you think a 25 YO kid can't replicate what he did in his first 10 starts. That's quite a claim, that he's had one of his best stretches as a rookie. To make such a claim, I assume you have strong reasons behind it. That's what I am trying to get at. But, again, if you don't, that's fine. If it's your gut, that's fine. Just trying to understand, and maybe there is nothing more to understand than that.

If he replicates what he did in his regular season starts and guys who finished behind him (Stafford/Wilson etc dont get better) then (In my league) he will be .1 away from exactley where I said he would be. I don't think I can say it any clearer then that.What he WON'T replicate (IMO) is the playoff run which is the driving force in his value right now. Him and the team were red hot and faced some of the worst defenses in the playoffs. I dont think that will be done over 16 games. He also broke a rushing record for QB's. I dont think that will be done again. He hasnt played a full season. The team doesnt pass much. The division is tough. He won't sneak up on anyone. This ALL factors into me staying away. If I'm wrong then fine. As I mentioned before, I have been. I'd rather take that approach with him then pick him higher then sopme of the other QB's I mentioned previously.The BIGGEST misconception you see (IMO) is the trajectory of fantasy players. The arrow is not always going up for young players.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think he can sustain the rushing performances of the playoffs.SF doesn't pass enoughHis passing + rushing #'s were only good for 10th in PPG.NFC West has the toughest defenses in football, schedule isn't in his favor.

-Of course he can't sustain his playoff numbers. If he could he'd be the #1 player by a very wide margin. But he doens't need to do that to be top 5 eventually.-We're talking about dynasty value. And at one point in time - as SSOG pointing out - Brady and Roethlisber were bus drivers whose teams didn't pass enough. If you're good enough, your team is going to lean on you more.-Top 10 in his first year starting is not a bad thing. We're talking about his career, not what he's done last year, or what he'll do next year, even. First year starters rarely set the mark, or even the baseline, in their fist 8 games or so.

 

[Chachi]

TdMills, pick a number you don't think Kaep will reach this year assuming all games played and we can talk about a bet.

 

[Chachi]

Because it was a perfect storm that I do not believe can be replicated.

You're not giving me much, here. If you opinion is summarized as "just because", that's fine. But not really what I am asking. I am asking WHAT can't be replicated. I am asking for specifics about his game. I am asking why you think a 25 YO kid can't replicate what he did in his first 10 starts. That's quite a claim, that he's had one of his best stretches as a rookie. To make such a claim, I assume you have strong reasons behind it. That's what I am trying to get at. But, again, if you don't, that's fine. If it's your gut, that's fine. Just trying to understand, and maybe there is nothing more to understand than that.

If he replicates what he did in his regular season starts and guys who finished behind him (Stafford/Wilson etc dont get better) then (In my league) he will be .1 away from exactley where I said he would be. I don't think I can say it any clearer then that.What he WON'T replicate (IMO) is the playoff run which is the driving force in his value right now. Him and the team were red hot and faced some of the worst defenses in the playoffs. I dont think that will be done over 16 games. He also broke a rushing record for QB's. I dont think that will be done again. He hasnt played a full season. The team doesnt pass much. The division is tough. He won't sneak up on anyone. This ALL factors into me staying away. If I'm wrong then fine. As I mentioned before, I have been. I'd rather take that approach with him then pick him higher then sopme of the other QB's I mentioned previously.The BIGGEST misconception you see (IMO) is the trajectory of fantasy players. The arrow is not always going up for young players.

You make some sad arguments. You don't think Kaep breaks 180 yards rushing in a game again. Way to go out on a limb.

 

[Concept Coop]

If he replicates what he did in his regular season starts and guys who finished behind him (Stafford/Wilson etc dont get better) then (In my league) he will be .1 away from exactley where I said he would be. I don't think I can say it any clearer then that.What he WON'T replicate (IMO) is the playoff run which is the driving force in his value right now. Him and the team were red hot and faced some of the worst defenses in the playoffs. I dont think that will be done over 16 games. He also broke a rushing record for QB's. I dont think that will be done again. He hasnt played a full season. The team doesnt pass much. The division is tough. He won't sneak up on anyone. This ALL factors into me staying away. If I'm wrong then fine. As I mentioned before, I have been. I'd rather take that approach with him then pick him higher then sopme of the other QB's I mentioned previously.The BIGGEST misconception you see (IMO) is the trajectory of fantasy players. The arrow is not always going up for young players.

This is just my personal opinion, but if a division's current strength is enough to lower a player in dynasty rankings, I personally don't have much use for said rankings. Especially if applied to a smart running QB. Seems very shortsighted to me. And we seem to be fighting the same straw man over and over again. Nobody claimed he could continue doing what he did in the playoffs, stat wise. He'd likely be the best fantasy player EVER if he could.