Colin Kaepernick is Overrated in FF (3 Viewers)

[tdmills]

TdMills, pick a number you don't think Kaep will reach this year assuming all games played and we can talk about a bet.

Odds are against him playing all 16 games, that's factored into his risk. See post #1

 

[maxwelledison]

The vehement responses defending CK from a modest criticism are proof that he's overvalued in FF. I've seen this movie a few times.

 

[tdmills]

I don't think he can sustain the rushing performances of the playoffs.SF doesn't pass enoughHis passing + rushing #'s were only good for 10th in PPG.NFC West has the toughest defenses in football, schedule isn't in his favor.

-Of course he can't sustain his playoff numbers. If he could he'd be the #1 player by a very wide margin. But he doens't need to do that to be top 5 eventually.-We're talking about dynasty value. And at one point in time - as SSOG pointing out - Brady and Roethlisber were bus drivers whose teams didn't pass enough. If you're good enough, your team is going to lean on you more.-Top 10 in his first year starting is not a bad thing. We're talking about his career, not what he's done last year, or what he'll do next year, even. First year starters rarely set the mark, or even the baseline, in their fist 8 games or so.

I pointed this out earlier as well. If Kaepernick has a Big Ben FF career, would you be satisfied as an owner? I would assume not.Alex Smith 2012 per game average:18.1 completions/26.1 attempts 207.2 yards 1.5 TD .6 INT3.3 carries 16.1 yards 0 TDCK 2012 per game average(reg):17.1 completions/27.4 attempts 229.7 yards 1.4 TD .4 INT6 carries 34 yards .3 TDOver 16 games:Alex Smith3315 yards 24 TD 10 INT258 yards 0 TDCK3675 yards 22 TD 6 INT96 carries 544 yards 5 TDFF PPG:Alex Smith=19.7CK=21.5Not a big difference, perhaps Harbaugh had a big advantage last year in SF.Diving further into the numbers:His YPA for regular season was 8.32. Only one starter had over 8 in all of 2012. Rodgers=7.78Brees=7.73Brady=7.58Peyton=7.99He will most likely regress to the mean. If you give him a 7.2 YPA(good for 13th in the NFL) he would've thrown for 3156 yards on 438 attempts.

 

[Concept Coop]

I pointed this out earlier as well. If Kaepernick has a Big Ben FF career, would you be satisfied as an owner? I would assume not.

Ben Roethlisberger with 6 points a game on the ground is certainly top 5.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

If he replicates what he did in his regular season starts and guys who finished behind him (Stafford/Wilson etc dont get better) then (In my league) he will be .1 away from exactley where I said he would be. I don't think I can say it any clearer then that.What he WON'T replicate (IMO) is the playoff run which is the driving force in his value right now. Him and the team were red hot and faced some of the worst defenses in the playoffs. I dont think that will be done over 16 games. He also broke a rushing record for QB's. I dont think that will be done again. He hasnt played a full season. The team doesnt pass much. The division is tough. He won't sneak up on anyone. This ALL factors into me staying away. If I'm wrong then fine. As I mentioned before, I have been. I'd rather take that approach with him then pick him higher then sopme of the other QB's I mentioned previously.The BIGGEST misconception you see (IMO) is the trajectory of fantasy players. The arrow is not always going up for young players.

This is just my personal opinion, but if a division's current strength is enough to lower a player in dynasty rankings, I personally don't have much use for said rankings. Especially if applied to a smart running QB. Seems very shortsighted to me. And we seem to be fighting the same straw man over and over again. Nobody claimed he could continue doing what he did in the playoffs, stat wise. He'd likely be the best fantasy player EVER if he could.

Maybe I should have specified but I was not talking about Dynasty.

 

[tdmills]

I pointed this out earlier as well. If Kaepernick has a Big Ben FF career, would you be satisfied as an owner? I would assume not.

Ben Roethlisberger with 6 points a game on the ground is certainly top 5.

I see what you did there

 

[Concept Coop]

Not a big difference, perhaps Harbaugh had a big advantage last year in SF.

He was top 10, higher if you include the playoffs. I don't know why we need to find external context to make it look any different than what it was.

He will most likely regress to the mean. If you give him a 7.2 YPA(good for 13th in the NFL) he would've thrown for 3156 yards on 438 attempts.

This doesn't make sense to me. His YPA was not a fluke, it was a result of the offense he played in, and his strengths. Comparing his YPA to the likes of Manning/Brady doesn't really do us any good. We could just as easily look at Cam Newton, who has had a high YPA in back-to-back seasons to start his career. But ask Newton to do what Brady and Peyton do, and he's in trouble. Different offenses and responsibilities. And if the line is 3156 yards, I'd happily lay a very good deal of scratch on that. Taking the over, of course. Those are Brandon Wheedon numbers. It doesn't make sense to assume his YPA drops by AN ENTIRE YARD, and his attempts don't also increase.

 

[Concept Coop]

Maybe I should have specified but I was not talking about Dynasty.

My bad, then, man. I assumed you were.

 

[Concept Coop]

I pointed this out earlier as well. If Kaepernick has a Big Ben FF career, would you be satisfied as an owner? I would assume not.

Ben Roethlisberger with 6 points a game on the ground is certainly top 5.

I see what you did there

Not ignore the points that he adds on the ground?

 

[tdmills]

I pointed this out earlier as well. If Kaepernick has a Big Ben FF career, would you be satisfied as an owner? I would assume not.

Ben Roethlisberger with 6 points a game on the ground is certainly top 5.

I see what you did there

Not ignore the points that he adds on the ground?

You changed the question.In his 9 year career Big Ben has thrown forver 30 TDs=1 timeover 25 TD=3 timesover 20 TD=4 timesover 4000 yards=2 timesover 3500 yards=3 timesThat's not a good FF QB

 

[Concept Coop]

You changed the question.

In his 9 year career Big Ben has thrown for:

over 30 TDs=1 time

over 25 TD=3 times

over 20 TD=4 times

over 4000 yards=2 times

over 3500 yards=3 times

That's not a good FF QB

What question did I change? He's not Ben Roethlisberger. If he didn't score points on the ground we wouldn't be having this conversation. He'd be right next to Ryan Tannehill in most rankings. But he does and that is why he had a top 2 fantasy game in the history of the NFL. He doesn't even need to be Ben Reothlisberger, in terms of passing stats, to be top 3. Newton threw for 3,900 yards and 19 TDs and was top 5 in the NFL.

 

[tdmills]

Not a big difference, perhaps Harbaugh had a big advantage last year in SF.

He was top 10, higher if you include the playoffs. I don't know why we need to find external context to make it look any different than what it was.

He will most likely regress to the mean. If you give him a 7.2 YPA(good for 13th in the NFL) he would've thrown for 3156 yards on 438 attempts.

This doesn't make sense to me. His YPA was not a fluke, it was a result of the offense he played in, and his strengths. Comparing his YPA to the likes of Manning/Brady doesn't really do us any good. We could just as easily look at Cam Newton, who has had a high YPA in back-to-back seasons to start his career. But ask Newton to do what Brady and Peyton do, and he's in trouble. Different offenses and responsibilities. And if the line is 3156 yards, I'd happily lay a very good deal of scratch on that. Taking the over, of course. Those are Brandon Wheedon numbers. It doesn't make sense to assume his YPA drops by AN ENTIRE YARD, and his attempts don't also increase.

Showing that he barely averaged more than Alex Smith isn't a good point?Running QB's have better YPA:Randall Cunningham had over 8 yards only once(98 Vikings)over 7 four other timeshis other 11 seasons were under 7Michael Vick over 8 onceover 7 two other timesthe rest below 7Sustained rushing yards:Cunningham had 5 seasons between 500-700 yards, only 1 season higher with 942.Vick had seasons of: 1,039, 902, 777, 676, 597, 589 and 4 other seasons below 400.

 

[Concept Coop]

Showing that he barely averaged more than Alex Smith isn't a good point?

He averaged 2 PPG more in the regular season, and 5 PPG more over 11 game stretch in which he starterd. Why not make a list of people he only scored 2 PPG less than?

Running QB's have better YPA:Randall Cunningham had over 8 yards only once(98 Vikings)over 7 four other timeshis other 11 seasons were under 7

I don't understand what you're trying to get at. What does Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick's YPA have to do with Kaepernick? It's about the offense he played in; low attempt, high reward per attempt.

Michael Vick over 8 onceover 7 two other timesthe rest below 7Sustained rushing yards:Cunningham had 5 seasons between 500-700 yards, only 1 season higher with 942.Vick had seasons of: 1,039, 902, 777, 676, 597, 589 and 4 other seasons below 400.

The NFL is breaking records for QB rushing totals left and right. Using past examples is faulty. Cam Newton is on pace to break the career rushing TD mark in his 4th season in the league. The current record holder, Young, played for 15 seasons. Young's career high was 7. Cam has 14 and 8 in his only two sesons. I don't care what QBs who didn't run the option read did. It has nothing to do with Kaepernick. Just like I don't care what numbers past TE who stayed in to block and didn't play in the slot did compared to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.

 

[SSOG]

I feel like the two sides are talking past each other at this point, so can we back up and define some of our terms to make sure everyone is talking about the same thing?

I've seen several assertions that some people are valuing him as a top-3 QB, but no idea of who these people may be. When someone says that Kaepernick is overvalued, is that statement based on the assumption that he's being valued as a top3 QB? I pointed out that his ADP in the dynasty mocks puts him at QB6, instead. Is he still overvalued at that price point, or is that about right for him? If he's still overvalued, what ranking would qualify as accurately valued?

I've seen several assertions that he costs a fortune to acquire, or that acquiring him would cripple the rest of your team. Can we get some examples of what kinds of trades he's been going for? What are some of the asking prices you've heard for him?

I think we might find that everyone has a little bit more common ground if we define more clearly what Kaepernick's current consensus value is.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Him and the team were red hot and faced some of the worst defenses in the playoffs.

The Packers were not a bad defense last year. Kaepernick shredded them in the playoffs - but that was not typical. Packers defensive stats:- 11th in total yards allowed- 11th in total points allowed- 17th in rushing yards allowed- 11th in passing yards allowedThis was a very average defense during the regular season.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I feel like the two sides are talking past each other at this point, so can we back up and define some of our terms to make sure everyone is talking about the same thing?I've seen several assertions that some people are valuing him as a top-3 QB, but no idea of who these people may be. When someone says that Kaepernick is overvalued, is that statement based on the assumption that he's being valued as a top3 QB? I pointed out that his ADP in the dynasty mocks puts him at QB6, instead. Is he still overvalued at that price point, or is that about right for him? If he's still overvalued, what ranking would qualify as accurately valued?I've seen several assertions that he costs a fortune to acquire, or that acquiring him would cripple the rest of your team. Can we get some examples of what kinds of trades he's been going for? What are some of the asking prices you've heard for him?I think we might find that everyone has a little bit more common ground if we define more clearly what Kaepernick's current consensus value is.

Exactly. SSOG, I posted this earlier but will repeat: I acquired Kaepernick in a league with....a somewhat interesting setup. Long story short, his cost was less than 1/2 the cost of Aaron Rodgers. It was basically the equivalent of Kaepernick + Demaryius Thomas for Rodgers. I have no idea what people think about that price point....but to me that isn't a steep price for Kaepernick.

 

[SSOG]

I mined the Dynasty Trade Thread for every trade posted involving Colin Kaepernick since February 4th (the day after the SB). Here's what we've got:

14-team non-PPR

Kaepernick -FOR- Gore

2QB League

Kaepernick -FOR- rookie pick 1.01

PPR w/ Flex

Kaepernick + Torrey Smith -FOR- Harvin + Reuben Randle

12-team non-PPR

Kaepernick + future 3rd and future 5th -FOR- T.Y. Hilton, 2014 1st, 2016 1st

No league data given

Kaepernick + 1.10 + 2.05 -FOR- Cutler + Crabtree + 4.06

32 team IDP league

Kaepernick + Finnegan -FOR- Bradford + Jason Worilds + Dre Kirkpatrick + 1.29 + 5.29

No league data given

Kaepernick + 1.10 + 2.10 -FOR- Jamaal Charles

12 team Zealots

Kaepernick + 5.10 + future 5th -FOR- Harvin + 2.09

12 team PPR

Kaepernick -FOR- 1.01

12 team PPR

Kaepernick + Martellus Bennett -FOR- 1.04 + 2.11

12 team PPR IDP

Kaepernick + Foster + TDavis -FOR- Rodgers + JStew + LDavid + SLee + future 1st

12 team PPR

Kaepernick + DRichardson -FOR- Romo + Ridley

no league data given

Kaepernick + Josh Gordon -FOR- Russell Wilson + Harvin

no league data given

Kaepernick + Chris Givens + Jeremy Maclin -FOR- Dez Bryant + 1.05

PPR

Kaepernick + Alshon Jeffrey + 4.04 -FOR- 1.10 + Hernandez + Bradford

12 team PPR

Kaepernick -FOR- Alex Smith + 2014 1st

That's 16 trades. I like the Kaep side in about 7 of them, which is just under half, which would suggest that he's a little bit overvalued right now, but not a ton.

 

[jurb26]

I feel like the two sides are talking past each other at this point, so can we back up and define some of our terms to make sure everyone is talking about the same thing?I've seen several assertions that some people are valuing him as a top-3 QB, but no idea of who these people may be. When someone says that Kaepernick is overvalued, is that statement based on the assumption that he's being valued as a top3 QB? I pointed out that his ADP in the dynasty mocks puts him at QB6, instead. Is he still overvalued at that price point, or is that about right for him? If he's still overvalued, what ranking would qualify as accurately valued?I've seen several assertions that he costs a fortune to acquire, or that acquiring him would cripple the rest of your team. Can we get some examples of what kinds of trades he's been going for? What are some of the asking prices you've heard for him?I think we might find that everyone has a little bit more common ground if we define more clearly what Kaepernick's current consensus value is.

It seems to me that Keap's value fluctuates greatly between leagues and owners, not uncommon. His ADP for dynasty is 6, as you pointed out. I'm sure that consists of several rankings closer to 3 and several closer to 9. Personally, I've got him at 9 in my rankings right now. I don't have a problem with his ranking of 6 or even 3. It just means he's not a guy likely to end up on my teams as I'm clearly on the lower end of his valuation. I just need to see more out of him before I can justify placing him in the top 5 or so of QBs. I think teams will adjust to the zone read he ran this year and his overall athletic ability. That should take away some of the rushing points in fantasy. I also need to see him develop more as a passer. Far too often he stuck onto his primary read and was ether later to his 2nd or just never got there at all. NFL teams will adjust to this, will he?

 

[tdmills]

Showing that he barely averaged more than Alex Smith isn't a good point?

He averaged 2 PPG more in the regular season, and 5 PPG more over 11 game stretch in which he starterd. Why not make a list of people he only scored 2 PPG less than?

Running QB's have better YPA:Randall Cunningham had over 8 yards only once(98 Vikings)over 7 four other timeshis other 11 seasons were under 7

I don't understand what you're trying to get at. What does Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick's YPA have to do with Kaepernick? It's about the offense he played in; low attempt, high reward per attempt.

Michael Vick over 8 onceover 7 two other timesthe rest below 7Sustained rushing yards:Cunningham had 5 seasons between 500-700 yards, only 1 season higher with 942.Vick had seasons of: 1,039, 902, 777, 676, 597, 589 and 4 other seasons below 400.

The NFL is breaking records for QB rushing totals left and right. Using past examples is faulty. Cam Newton is on pace to break the career rushing TD mark in his 4th season in the league. The current record holder, Young, played for 15 seasons. Young's career high was 7. Cam has 14 and 8 in his only two sesons. I don't care what QBs who didn't run the option read did. It has nothing to do with Kaepernick. Just like I don't care what numbers past TE who stayed in to block and didn't play in the slot did compared to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.

I stopped posting in here because it was going nowhere. You made a remark about not comparing non-running QB's YPA(Brady/Manning) to a running QB and brought up Cam Newton. So I brought forth two historical running QB's: Cunningham/Vick. But now because they weren't running the read option they're irrelevant. Well if you keep tweaking the criteria, nobody can be compared.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Showing that he barely averaged more than Alex Smith isn't a good point?

He averaged 2 PPG more in the regular season, and 5 PPG more over 11 game stretch in which he starterd. Why not make a list of people he only scored 2 PPG less than?

Running QB's have better YPA:Randall Cunningham had over 8 yards only once(98 Vikings)over 7 four other timeshis other 11 seasons were under 7

I don't understand what you're trying to get at. What does Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick's YPA have to do with Kaepernick? It's about the offense he played in; low attempt, high reward per attempt.

Michael Vick over 8 onceover 7 two other timesthe rest below 7Sustained rushing yards:Cunningham had 5 seasons between 500-700 yards, only 1 season higher with 942.Vick had seasons of: 1,039, 902, 777, 676, 597, 589 and 4 other seasons below 400.

The NFL is breaking records for QB rushing totals left and right. Using past examples is faulty. Cam Newton is on pace to break the career rushing TD mark in his 4th season in the league. The current record holder, Young, played for 15 seasons. Young's career high was 7. Cam has 14 and 8 in his only two sesons. I don't care what QBs who didn't run the option read did. It has nothing to do with Kaepernick. Just like I don't care what numbers past TE who stayed in to block and didn't play in the slot did compared to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.

I stopped posting in here because it was going nowhere. You made a remark about not comparing non-running QB's YPA(Brady/Manning) to a running QB and brought up Cam Newton. So I brought forth two historical running QB's: Cunningham/Vick. But now because they weren't running the read option they're irrelevant. Well if you keep tweaking the criteria, nobody can be compared.

To be fair, with the exception of RG3, I don't think there exists a fair direct comparison to Kap. Vick might be the closest (great feet and a cannon for an arm),but he didn't exist with the amazing supporting cast that Kap has and couldn't stay healthy. Kap may very well end up being what Vick was hyped up to be coming into the 2011 but younger and smarter about getting hurt.I however am staying away, I would be surprised if he stays healthy 16 games a year running as much as he does and QB rushing TDs might be one of the most variable stats out there. Especially since hes not the teams goal line back in the same way Cam is. I love him as a prospect and expect big things but with even with his risk someone is going to pay way too much for him and its not going to be me.

 

[Concept Coop]

I stopped posting in here because it was going nowhere. You made a remark about not comparing non-running QB's YPA(Brady/Manning) to a running QB and brought up Cam Newton. So I brought forth two historical running QB's: Cunningham/Vick. But now because they weren't running the read option they're irrelevant. Well if you keep tweaking the criteria, nobody can be compared.

I didn't say running; I was talking about the offense SF runs. I'll say this and be done. If his YPA drops by over a yard and his volume doesn't increase, we're talking about one of the worst QBs in the league. I don't think that happens. They ran an anti-dink-n-dunk, which is perfect for Kaeps talents and the reason for his YPC.

 

[Touchdown There]

I feel like the two sides are talking past each other at this point, so can we back up and define some of our terms to make sure everyone is talking about the same thing?I've seen several assertions that some people are valuing him as a top-3 QB, but no idea of who these people may be. When someone says that Kaepernick is overvalued, is that statement based on the assumption that he's being valued as a top3 QB? I pointed out that his ADP in the dynasty mocks puts him at QB6, instead. Is he still overvalued at that price point, or is that about right for him? If he's still overvalued, what ranking would qualify as accurately valued?I've seen several assertions that he costs a fortune to acquire, or that acquiring him would cripple the rest of your team. Can we get some examples of what kinds of trades he's been going for? What are some of the asking prices you've heard for him?I think we might find that everyone has a little bit more common ground if we define more clearly what Kaepernick's current consensus value is.

Good work on this data mine.

 

[Faust]

Jaworski sees Kaepernick as “special talent” with “elite skill set”

Posted by Michael David Smith on July 12, 2013, 3:45 PM EDT

NFL quarterback turned ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski is in the process of ranking all of the league’s passers, and he positively gushed in his assessment of 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

Jaworski ranked Kaepernick at No. 11, noting that he has played only half a season. But Jaworski said that 10 games was more than enough for Kaepernick’s talent to shine.

“Normally 10 NFL starts is not enough for me to evaluate a player so highly, but this kid has special talent, is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback with a power arm and outstanding athleticism,” Jaworski said.

Jaworski thinks that Kaepernick has the talent to rise a lot higher than No. 11 in future rankings.

“Kaepernick has a chance to be very special,” Jaworski said. “He has a complete throwing skill set with a powerful arm that I absolutely put at gun level. His ball comes out with a lot of energy and velocity. And Kaepernick can drive the ball down the field, on the move, with accuracy. . . . Kaepernick is one of the four or five most physically talented quarterbacks in the entire NFL. . . . The elite skill set is still there.”

It’s not often that a quarterback gets that kind of praise when he has played that little. But it’s not often that a quarterback plays as well, as early as Kaepernick.

 

[Eminence]

I like him, obviously he was supported by a decent supporting cast (49ers were the #2 seed). But he's certainly got upside. I wouldn't confidently roll with him as my starting QB this season but he's not a bad player to have.

 

[Biabreakable]

Are running QBs more injury prone than their pocket-passing peers? Surprisingly, no- I believe it was Brian Burke or Scott Kascmar who ran the regressions and found basically no correlation between rush attempts and injuries. It turns out the biggest predictor of injury is not rush attempts, but sacks taken (regardless of rush attempts).

I think it is an interesting stat/study, but find it hard to believe, myself. I'd have to see the criteria. I think measuring based on designed, non-QB sneaks would be a better indicator. What QBs like Aaron Rodgers do to account for their carries is very different than a QB running the option read.

I went looking for the article I remembered, but couldn't find it. I did find three other articles worth reposting, though:Jason Lisk looks at rush attempts vs. games played. He does find that rushing leads to more missed time (of QBs with 800+ attempts by age 26, high-rush QBs play 36/64 games from ages 27-30, while low-rush QBs play 42/64). Those numbers are so low because 800 attempts by 26 is a low threshold, and there are a lot of Carrs and Frerottes in the data.

Kascmar breaks down all of Griffin, Wilson, and Kaepernick's carries. He notes Kaepernick was particularly adept at avoiding hits by running out of bounds.

Lisk's old look at sacks vs. longevity. No surprise, guys who get sacked a ton have shorter careers.

I'll look again for the original study later this afternoon.

Thanks for posting this. Enjoy learning new things and perspectives

Ditto. This is nice information, thanks for posting.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I think he is overrated only due to the fact that Crabtree is gone.

 

[kface]

Put me in the camp that defenses figure out the read option this year and therefore Kaep becomes very overrated.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

 

[kface]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

Interesting take....I would be interested in seeing what those numbers were. All I know that in the playoff games where the kaep hype really took off I bet a good 60-70 % of his yards on the ground came off the read option

 

[Shawnky]

Put me in the camp that defenses figure out the read option this year and therefore Kaep becomes very overrated.

So RG3 and Cam should fall into this category as well. .....right?

 

[massraider]

Put me in the camp that defenses figure out the read option this year and therefore Kaep becomes very overrated.

So RG3 and Cam should fall into this category as well. .....right?

Don't know how much read option Cam does. Thinking it's a lot less than RG3 or Kaep.

 

[Biabreakable]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

Interesting take....I would be interested in seeing what those numbers were. All I know that in the playoff games where the kaep hype really took off I bet a good 60-70 % of his yards on the ground came off the read option

From the links in SSOGs previous post. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1519776-can-the-nfls-young-athletic-qbs-sustain-their-early-rushing-successes

Wilson's runs were more due to scrambling than the other 2 QB. Griffin had the most designed runs, while Kaep was about 50/50. Would be nice to see a similar breakdown on Cam Newton's runs. I hear they are moving away from their option game this offseason however.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

Interesting take....I would be interested in seeing what those numbers were. All I know that in the playoff games where the kaep hype really took off I bet a good 60-70 % of his yards on the ground came off the read option

Well, then evidently you aren't a Packer fan, because most of Kaep's yards against the Pack came on scrambles.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

Interesting take....I would be interested in seeing what those numbers were. All I know that in the playoff games where the kaep hype really took off I bet a good 60-70 % of his yards on the ground came off the read option

From the links in SSOGs previous post. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1519776-can-the-nfls-young-athletic-qbs-sustain-their-early-rushing-successesWilson's runs were more due to scrambling than the other 2 QB. Griffin had the most designed runs, while Kaep was about 50/50. Would be nice to see a similar breakdown on Cam Newton's runs. I hear they are moving away from their option game this offseason however.

As I guessed, all three of the young mobile QB's profiled there were more productive scrambling with the ball than keeping the ball in read-option looks, Kaep and Wilson significantly so.

Interestingly, on a YPC basis Wilson and Kaep were more effective running a keeper in those read-option looks, while Griffin was actually significantly more productive per carry when scrambling. He did have an 86-yarder, but that's what his world-class speed brings, so it wouldn't be right to exclude it from the sample.

 

[Biabreakable]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

Interesting take....I would be interested in seeing what those numbers were. All I know that in the playoff games where the kaep hype really took off I bet a good 60-70 % of his yards on the ground came off the read option

From the links in SSOGs previous post. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1519776-can-the-nfls-young-athletic-qbs-sustain-their-early-rushing-successesWilson's runs were more due to scrambling than the other 2 QB. Griffin had the most designed runs, while Kaep was about 50/50. Would be nice to see a similar breakdown on Cam Newton's runs. I hear they are moving away from their option game this offseason however.

As I guessed, all three of the young mobile QB's profiled there were more productive scrambling with the ball than keeping the ball in read-option looks, Kaep and Wilson significantly so.

Interestingly, on a YPC basis Wilson and Kaep were more effective running a keeper in those read-option looks, while Griffin was actually significantly more productive per carry when scrambling. He did have an 86-yarder, but that's what his world-class speed brings, so it wouldn't be right to exclude it from the sample.

The76 yard run vs the Vikings is what won that game for them. I wish it didn't count but it does. Griffen and the option had the Vikings defense totally confused that game.

 

[kface]

Put me in the camp that defenses figure out the read option this year and therefore Kaep becomes very overrated.

So RG3 and Cam should fall into this category as well. .....right?

Absolutely but I expect RGIII to take a FF hit mostly because of his knee. Cam on the other hand is a tank so his rushing is a little different than Kaep. I also don't love Cam because I think he is immature and not a leader. I don't think Kaep is going to be a good passer. RGIII is a much better pure passer imho.

 

[kface]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

Interesting take....I would be interested in seeing what those numbers were. All I know that in the playoff games where the kaep hype really took off I bet a good 60-70 % of his yards on the ground came off the read option

Well, then evidently you aren't a Packer fan, because most of Kaep's yards against the Pack came on scrambles.

I am a 49er fan and watched that game. I thought most of his runs came on the read option....anyone have a breakdown of this

 

[meyerj31]

I haven't done the figures, but I'd bet pretty good money that all of the mobile QB's last season gained a decent amount more yardage on the ground off of scrambles, compared to called read-option runs.

Interesting take....I would be interested in seeing what those numbers were. All I know that in the playoff games where the kaep hype really took off I bet a good 60-70 % of his yards on the ground came off the read option

Well, then evidently you aren't a Packer fan, because most of Kaep's yards against the Pack came on scrambles.

I am a 49er fan and watched that game. I thought most of his runs came on the read option....anyone have a breakdown of this

I know in the Falcons game Kaep had almost no designed runs. They ran the read option but he handed it to Gore every time - one of the reasons Gore's stats were so padded. I think with the Packers he had might have had one or two but most of them were scrambles. The entire game plan for the Packers revolved around making him a passer, forcing him to hand off to Gore on the read-option, and keeping him in the pocket. Even so, he still burned them multiple times on scrambles, but I don't think many of his runs were designed.

Edit: Just watched the 10-minute game recap and saw 1 run that was a designed read option where Kaep kept it and ran (the 60-yard run for a touchdown). He had a lots of runs but all the other ones were scrambles, which I guess is what makes him so dangerous. I remember Vick telling people a few years ago that not one of his runs in the 2010(?) season were designed. They wanted him to use his ability when he got in trouble but not expose himself unnecessarily. It's more about making people respect the threat than actually using it.

I really liked the Packers game plan; they just didn't have the personnel to make it work. Not enough speed or talent. It didn't help that we lost two ILB and Perry on the outside. If you don't have your best linebackers you aren't going to win very many games playing a 3-4, especially against a dual threat QB. I'm really excited for this season when we get two MORE first rounders on the defense. That'll make four first-rounders total in the front seven (Matthews, Raji, Datone, Perry). Does any other team have that kind of talent up front? With Rodgers at the helm and that kind of defense (plus some up and coming secondary players) this is going to be a fun season to watch! =)

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm really excited for this season when we get two MORE first rounders on the defense. That'll make four first-rounders total in the front seven (Matthews, Raji, Datone, Perry). Does any other team have that kind of talent up front? With Rodgers at the helm and that kind of defense (plus some up and coming secondary players) this is going to be a fun season to watch! =)

Yes. Most teams have better talent in the front 7 of their defense than this.

3 years in a row now the Packers head coach is having to talk about tackling better and becoming more physical on defense. Perhaps if he keeps saying it eventually it will be true.

 

[DeaLerZ]

i love the people that say "i am not going to take the risk on Kaepernick"... why do you even play fantasy football than??? He is one of the most exciting QB's with huge potential especially in fantasy circles we have ever seen in this game we play. I mean in the playoffs he scored like the 2nd most points ever in a single game. Pessimists drive me crazy. Who cares if he is going to end up in the top 5 or the top 10??? He is FUN TO WATCH REGARDLESS, and HAS HUGE POTENTIAL.

I play this game for fun, and that attitude has led me to the playoffs every year I have played out of the 10, and to 6 championships. 4 of which I have won. Having a QB in the top 10 or top 5 isn't going to make or break your season if you draft a team with great depth, and pick players that are consistent performers for at least half of your roster. When you draft a guy like Kapernick, you draft him because he can win a single week for you, and if you are planning on drafting him than you draft the rest of your team accordingly. Plus, anyone who knows a lick about fantasy football knows that the WAIVER WIRE is where championships are really won. The chances that you draft the PERFECT team based on all these pre-season stats is pretty low. The last two years I have made the championship, I have had half my team get injured and ended up with a completely different looking starting group by the playoffs. All this bickering about blah blah blah I don't want to touch that, he might get injured is just annoying, and not to mention the poster who showed statistics supporting that QB's who get sacked a ton are the ones to be the most worried about as far as injury concerns. If you are that worried about the player getting injured, than draft a GREAT BACKUP like Eli, or Roethlisberger. Again why even play fantasy football??

Also all the non-sense about defenses having Cam figured out is ridiculous too. I watched every single Panther's game last season. It doesn't matter if defenses have Cam figured out, he is way too athletic. Cam was his OWN WORST ENEMY the first half of the season, and like others mentioned the Panther's play calling, and his supporting cast wasn't much help. After all the criticism he took in the first half of the season he played spectacular the 2nd half of the season. He made smart decisions, allowed the play makers to make plays, cut down his turnovers, started listening to his mentors and btw was the #1 QB for the 2nd half of the season. Yes, I also had him as my QB for all of last season. The first 8 weeks were horrible, the last 8 he was awesome. I don't know about most of you, but I look at the 2nd half of a season as the biggest indicator of how well a player will do the next year. Of course coaching changes, philosophy, supporting cast, and offensive line are big factors as well. But you would have to be a complete moron to stay away from a QB like Cam who can also win a SINGLE WEEK FOR YOU BY HIMSELF. The noobs that start playing fantasy might not know where to draft a QB like this accordingly, but THEY ARE SURE AS HELL RIGHT ABOUT WANTING A PLAYER LIKE THAT ON THEIR TEAM. Again draft the rest of your team accordingly with guys you know to be more of the consistent performers. Every team should have a few wildcards that can win the week for you. Again why do you play fantasy football if you want to stay away from a guy like Cam?? He is INCREDIBLY EXCITING TO WATCH AND CHEER FOR... especially if you are a Panthers fan.

and btw his skillset which is very similar to Kaepernick's.. has led him to QB 4, and QB 5 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. Again you would have to be smoking something to stay away from these two guys, and you should probably stop playing fantasy football because you have forgotten how much fun it can be. Seriously, take a year off from playing Sean Peyton style (suspend yourself if need be) and sit back and watch the game, and wonder what players would I love to have on my fantasy team for next year. Might do you some good if you are one of these nay-sayers.

 

[bostonfred]

I kind of agree with the above sentiment. There's such a thing as overhype, but you need to draft players who can substantially exceed their expectations. Nothing wrong with drafting Brees early, but with the depth at QB this year, if you can get a stud at another position early, you have a great chance for your QB to outproduce his draft position, and Kaepernick is one of the guys who can do that. I also agree that if you go for boom/bust type players, you need to incorporate that into your overall philosophy. (If you're looking for an example, note how DeaLerZ appears to incorporate his random capitalization philosophy into everything he does.)

 

[althepostman]

i love the people that say "i am not going to take the risk on Kaepernick"... why do you even play fantasy football than??? He is one of the most exciting QB's with huge potential especially in fantasy circles we have ever seen in this game we play. I mean in the playoffs he scored like the 2nd most points ever in a single game. Pessimists drive me crazy. Who cares if he is going to end up in the top 5 or the top 10??? He is FUN TO WATCH REGARDLESS, and HAS HUGE POTENTIAL.

I play this game for fun, and that attitude has led me to the playoffs every year I have played out of the 10, and to 6 championships. 4 of which I have won. Having a QB in the top 10 or top 5 isn't going to make or break your season if you draft a team with great depth, and pick players that are consistent performers for at least half of your roster. When you draft a guy like Kapernick, you draft him because he can win a single week for you, and if you are planning on drafting him than you draft the rest of your team accordingly. Plus, anyone who knows a lick about fantasy football knows that the WAIVER WIRE is where championships are really won. The chances that you draft the PERFECT team based on all these pre-season stats is pretty low. The last two years I have made the championship, I have had half my team get injured and ended up with a completely different looking starting group by the playoffs. All this bickering about blah blah blah I don't want to touch that, he might get injured is just annoying, and not to mention the poster who showed statistics supporting that QB's who get sacked a ton are the ones to be the most worried about as far as injury concerns. If you are that worried about the player getting injured, than draft a GREAT BACKUP like Eli, or Roethlisberger. Again why even play fantasy football??

Also all the non-sense about defenses having Cam figured out is ridiculous too. I watched every single Panther's game last season. It doesn't matter if defenses have Cam figured out, he is way too athletic. Cam was his OWN WORST ENEMY the first half of the season, and like others mentioned the Panther's play calling, and his supporting cast wasn't much help. After all the criticism he took in the first half of the season he played spectacular the 2nd half of the season. He made smart decisions, allowed the play makers to make plays, cut down his turnovers, started listening to his mentors and btw was the #1 QB for the 2nd half of the season. Yes, I also had him as my QB for all of last season. The first 8 weeks were horrible, the last 8 he was awesome. I don't know about most of you, but I look at the 2nd half of a season as the biggest indicator of how well a player will do the next year. Of course coaching changes, philosophy, supporting cast, and offensive line are big factors as well. But you would have to be a complete moron to stay away from a QB like Cam who can also win a SINGLE WEEK FOR YOU BY HIMSELF. The noobs that start playing fantasy might not know where to draft a QB like this accordingly, but THEY ARE SURE AS HELL RIGHT ABOUT WANTING A PLAYER LIKE THAT ON THEIR TEAM. Again draft the rest of your team accordingly with guys you know to be more of the consistent performers. Every team should have a few wildcards that can win the week for you. Again why do you play fantasy football if you want to stay away from a guy like Cam?? He is INCREDIBLY EXCITING TO WATCH AND CHEER FOR... especially if you are a Panthers fan.

and btw his skillset which is very similar to Kaepernick's.. has led him to QB 4, and QB 5 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. Again you would have to be smoking something to stay away from these two guys, and you should probably stop playing fantasy football because you have forgotten how much fun it can be. Seriously, take a year off from playing Sean Peyton style (suspend yourself if need be) and sit back and watch the game, and wonder what players would I love to have on my fantasy team for next year. Might do you some good if you are one of these nay-sayers.

Amen brother! Preach on

 

[DeaLerZ]

I kind of agree with the above sentiment. There's such a thing as overhype, but you need to draft players who can substantially exceed their expectations. Nothing wrong with drafting Brees early, but with the depth at QB this year, if you can get a stud at another position early, you have a great chance for your QB to outproduce his draft position, and Kaepernick is one of the guys who can do that. I also agree that if you go for boom/bust type players, you need to incorporate that into your overall philosophy. (If you're looking for an example, note how DeaLerZ appears to incorporate his random capitalization philosophy into everything he does.)

haha what can I say I am a passionate guy... if you could hear me talking i would have been raising my voice for those statements lol

 

[Riversco]

These days I think every QB puts up gaudy numbers, or has the chance to. Kapernick could post great numbers and finish the 8th best fantasy QB.

 

[Riversco]

If we're back to comparing Kapernick, Wilson and RG3 again, I just fall back on the fact that, when the chips were down in the playoffs, in the 4th quarter, Russell Wilson was money. He led a 4th quarter comeback win at the Redskins and then nearly overcome a huge deficit in the 4th quarter against the Falcons. He's shown Montana-esqe heart with his play.

I'd bet on Wilson.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm starting to think Kaepernick is buying into his own celebrity a bit too much. Seems like for some reason he thinks he's arrived. He hasn't won anything yet. He's on a team that was clipping along just fine with Alex Smith. I still think this Kaepernick move could blow up in the 49ers face.

 

[Tau837]

If we're back to comparing Kapernick, Wilson and RG3 again, I just fall back on the fact that, when the chips were down in the playoffs, in the 4th quarter, Russell Wilson was money. He led a 4th quarter comeback win at the Redskins and then nearly overcome a huge deficit in the 4th quarter against the Falcons. He's shown Montana-esqe heart with his play.

I'd bet on Wilson.

He did overcome that deficit in the 4th quarter against the Falcons. It was the vaunted Seattle defense that blew it.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I'm starting to think Kaepernick is buying into his own celebrity a bit too much. Seems like for some reason he thinks he's arrived. He hasn't won anything yet. He's on a team that was clipping along just fine with Alex Smith. I still think this Kaepernick move could blow up in the 49ers face.

What's making you think this?

 

[Concept Coop]

Put me in the camp that defenses figure out the read option this year and therefore Kaep becomes very overrated.

There is nothing to figure out. It a very old concept; put the defense in a position to have to make a choice, or guess. College teams base their entire offense on it and have for decades. The NFL didn't have the talent at QB to run it - the defenders were too fast for it to work. Now, that is no longer the case.

It's like suggesting that teams are going to "figure out" play action.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm starting to think Kaepernick is buying into his own celebrity a bit too much. Seems like for some reason he thinks he's arrived. He hasn't won anything yet. He's on a team that was clipping along just fine with Alex Smith. I still think this Kaepernick move could blow up in the 49ers face.

What's making you think this?

The Dolphins thing with the hat for one speaks to a lack of maturity. Just his general flippant attitude about stuff like that. Shows a lack of professionalism.