RB RJ Harvey, DEN (2 Viewers)

[JohnnyU]

I didn't see a thread for him, so here it goes.

5'9" 208lbs for UCF. Had 1500 yards and 22 TDs. He ran 4.4 40 at the combine, which is surprising. Can he catch? Yeah, but not really a strong trait. Will he be a guy who gets what there but not much else? His pass protection is horrible, so will he even be in there on 3rd down? From a PPR perspective he doesn't seem to offer much upside. Maybe a solid RB for what he does, but may have limited upside. He does run a great pad level and has good vision and elusiveness. Is he good at most things, but not great at any of them? Plus he is already 24 years old. Probably goes in the 5th or 6th round of the NFL draft. I would be comfortable taking him somewhere in the 3rd round of rookie drafts.

 

[travdogg]

I'm WAY higher on him than 5th or 6th round. Back-to-back season over 1600 yards at well over 6 yards per carry, which is a pretty nice rebound after a torn ACL. He's a very good pass catcher in my opinion. I fully expect him to play 3rd downs. Pass pro is poor, and the age thing isn't ideal, but hardly a dealbreaker. He converted from QB, so despite his age he could still very much be on the upswing, especially in pass pro.

He's a sneaky powerful slasher for his size with receiving skills and more burst than expected. I like him as a 3rd rounder in the NFL draft. He's a way better prospect than someone like Ollie Gordon. Frankly, I like him more than Devin Neal.

I think he'd be an interesting fit in Minnesota behind Aaron Jones at #97.

 

[Faust]

Kent Lee Platte
RJ Harvey is a RB prospect in the 2025 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.07 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 179 out of 1909 RB from 1987 to 2025.

Splits projected, times unofficial.

ras.football/ras-informatio…

https://x.com/mathbomb/status/1895901890044707075?s=61

 

[Faust]

RJ Harvey Draft and Combine Prospect Profile (NFL.com)

 

[Faust]

Josh Norris
there is so much to love about UCF RB RJ Harvey's game

~ Phone booth creation vs unblocked DL/LB
~ Tempo behind pulling OL to maximize blocking
~ Juice and finish when given the second level

https://x.com/joshnorris/status/1900607171085152544?s=61

 

[Faust]

Jacob Gibbs
Highest career rushing EPA per snap from the 2025 RB class = RJ Harvey

Harvey was one of four RBs to avoid a tackle on at least 30% of rush attempts in each of his seasons as a starter:

Ashton Jeanty
Cam Skattebo
Bhayshul Tuten
RJ Harvey

Super fun to watch Harvey tote the rock

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900946333629882810?s=61

RJ Harvey's film is dope.

Vision, pacing, evasion, balance, strength, breakaway speed, receiving contributions -- he brings a lot.

Also important to realize that he is two years older than Bucky Irving.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900950698809839812?s=61

RJ Harvey = explosive play waiting to happen

Will be super excited if he is drafted somewhere with an opportunity to play in Year 1. He's like a Tyjae Spears/Bucky Irving hybrid. Very fun!

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900954750801101094?s=61

 

[Faust]

Ray G
Every RJ Harvey breakaway run (15+yards) from 2024 (2nd NCAA behind Ashton Jeanty) #NFLDraft2025

https://x.com/raygque/status/1903106078889418956?s=61

Derek Brown
(clears throat)

HARVEY IS A TOP 5 RB IN THIS CLASS

https://x.com/dbro_ffb/status/1903115223248126330?s=61

 

[Faust]

Josh Norris
10 minutes on UCF RB RJ Harvey ️

He'll likely go on Day 3 due to being 24 yrs old

But so did Tyrone Tracy, Bucky Irving and Kyren Williams. I was drawn to all three of those players prior to the draft - and I am equally drawn to RJ Harvey

He's fun!

youtu.be/bAr6ur7kb2g

https://x.com/joshnorris/status/1902875191921012758?s=61

 

[BigTex]

Jacob Gibbs
Highest career rushing EPA per snap from the 2025 RB class = RJ Harvey

Harvey was one of four RBs to avoid a tackle on at least 30% of rush attempts in each of his seasons as a starter:

Ashton Jeanty
Cam Skattebo
Bhayshul Tuten
RJ Harvey

Super fun to watch Harvey tote the rock

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900946333629882810?s=61

RJ Harvey's film is dope.

Vision, pacing, evasion, balance, strength, breakaway speed, receiving contributions -- he brings a lot.

Also important to realize that he is two years older than Bucky Irving.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900950698809839812?s=61

RJ Harvey = explosive play waiting to happen

Will be super excited if he is drafted somewhere with an opportunity to play in Year 1. He's like a Tyjae Spears/Bucky Irving hybrid. Very fun!

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900954750801101094?s=61

No way is he close to being anything like Bucky.

Tex

 

[eighsse2]

Jacob Gibbs
Highest career rushing EPA per snap from the 2025 RB class = RJ Harvey

Harvey was one of four RBs to avoid a tackle on at least 30% of rush attempts in each of his seasons as a starter:

Ashton Jeanty
Cam Skattebo
Bhayshul Tuten
RJ Harvey

Super fun to watch Harvey tote the rock

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900946333629882810?s=61

RJ Harvey's film is dope.

Vision, pacing, evasion, balance, strength, breakaway speed, receiving contributions -- he brings a lot.

Also important to realize that he is two years older than Bucky Irving.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900950698809839812?s=61

RJ Harvey = explosive play waiting to happen

Will be super excited if he is drafted somewhere with an opportunity to play in Year 1. He's like a Tyjae Spears/Bucky Irving hybrid. Very fun!

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900954750801101094?s=61

No way is he close to being anything like Bucky.

Tex

Is this take based on the "what we know now" Bucky, or college Bucky?

 

[BigTex]

Jacob Gibbs
Highest career rushing EPA per snap from the 2025 RB class = RJ Harvey

Harvey was one of four RBs to avoid a tackle on at least 30% of rush attempts in each of his seasons as a starter:

Ashton Jeanty
Cam Skattebo
Bhayshul Tuten
RJ Harvey

Super fun to watch Harvey tote the rock

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900946333629882810?s=61

RJ Harvey's film is dope.

Vision, pacing, evasion, balance, strength, breakaway speed, receiving contributions -- he brings a lot.

Also important to realize that he is two years older than Bucky Irving.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900950698809839812?s=61

RJ Harvey = explosive play waiting to happen

Will be super excited if he is drafted somewhere with an opportunity to play in Year 1. He's like a Tyjae Spears/Bucky Irving hybrid. Very fun!

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900954750801101094?s=61

No way is he close to being anything like Bucky.

Tex

Is this take based on the "what we know now" Bucky, or college Bucky?

College….some of us knew then and they are not close to being the same…not even close.

Tex

 

[pinkstapler]

Jacob Gibbs
Highest career rushing EPA per snap from the 2025 RB class = RJ Harvey

Harvey was one of four RBs to avoid a tackle on at least 30% of rush attempts in each of his seasons as a starter:

Ashton Jeanty
Cam Skattebo
Bhayshul Tuten
RJ Harvey

Super fun to watch Harvey tote the rock

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900946333629882810?s=61

RJ Harvey's film is dope.

Vision, pacing, evasion, balance, strength, breakaway speed, receiving contributions -- he brings a lot.

Also important to realize that he is two years older than Bucky Irving.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900950698809839812?s=61

RJ Harvey = explosive play waiting to happen

Will be super excited if he is drafted somewhere with an opportunity to play in Year 1. He's like a Tyjae Spears/Bucky Irving hybrid. Very fun!

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900954750801101094?s=61

No way is he close to being anything like Bucky.

Tex

Is this take based on the "what we know now" Bucky, or college Bucky?

I think he is very much like Bucky from the assessment perspective. While there is certainly a small contingent taking their well-deserved victory laps on being "right" on Bucky; the majority saw a smaller back who could run between the tackles better than you'd think for his size, but otherwise showed very little to get excited about with regards to speed, wiggle, or explosion. Then when Bucky participated in the combine, his measurables there basically validated all that was shown (or better yet NOT shown) on tape. And then he went on to be a day 3 draft pick, very end of the fourth round. Not bad draft stock, but typically you want your fantasy RBs going day 2 as there's a statistical drop off in hit rates going later than that.

So far RJ Harvey checks the first two boxes. Just ok film. Meh combine numbers. And he's projecting for similar draft capital. They comp similarly in build, and if anything Harvey actually tested better than Bucky. If I remember Bucky's vert was embarrassingly low. Nonetheless Harvey, like Bucky, (and kind of like a lot of guys every year in fantasy rookie classes) has his group of truthers who are much higher on him than consensus.

To Tex's credit; I would agree with the prediction Harvey doesn't turn out like Bucky; just likely disagree on why. I think Bucky was a long shot outlier who's film and analytical profile would not have predicted his outcome. But his NFL film shows he definitely made a skill/talent jump and is performing even better than he ever did in college and doing it against much stiffer competition. The likelihood that Harvey also does that is just low. Also, part of Bucky's success is 100% the situation he landed in. He was in a run friendly offense with a great passing game and good line to create a friendly place for RBs. His usage was also wild. I believe he was second only to Saquon Barkly in opportunities the second half of last season. A lot of things need to break Harvey's way for him to wind up following in Bucky's footsteps here.

 

[rockaction]

Harvey and Bucky is not a good comparison simply because Harvey tested really well. Anyone or any article saying something to the contrary is incorrect. He ran a 4.40 forty at 205 lbs., which is 89th percentile for the forty and a speed score that is 109.4, or 91st percentile for that measure. His jumps give him a burst score in the 89th percentile. That’s all excellent. The only ding on him is his bench press was 16 reps for 21st percentile, by far his worst testing number.

Bucky Irving’s numbers were terrible. Not Kyren Williams bad, but bad nonetheless. A 4.55 at 192 lbs. for a speed score of 90, which puts him in the 26th percentile. He has a burst score stemming from his tests measuring his jumping ability that is in the woefully bad 7th percentile. I’m still wondering about how Bucky will hold up in the NFL, frankly. But that’s me. His athleticism measure by Player Profiler puts him #6,351 out of 6,548 fantasy-relevant players for all positions and for all of time (since the Combine started measuring and compiling these stats and as far back as they go in the Player Profiler historical database). Those are awful numbers, and I’m shaking my head about how Irving is getting by. It’s possible to do so, but it’s so unlikely.

So Harvey is nothing like Irving, and I won’t be shocked if Irving falls back to earth next year. He’s stupidly overvalued in dynasty right now. Like criminally. Him for Breece on KTC? That’s ludicrous.

Anyway, enough about Bucky. Harvey is 5’8” and 205. He probably won’t be an every down back, but if you play PPR, he might sneak into your lineup twice or four times and be useful if you are desperate. I’m pulling for him. He explodes to the line with his runs and looks good out there with his serious first burst.

eta* Oh, one major drawback. He's notoriously bad at pass protection according to the scouting reports I read. Who knows how much that is one person saying it and then that observation keeps getting repeated, but it was a constant complaint. If he can't pass pro, forget about him in the pros. He'll never see the field. He's also old, so developing that pass protection at the pro level might be a huge issue. He's 24 with a birthdate of Feb. 4, 2001. If you're wondering (and why wouldn't you wonder) Bucky Irving is a year and six months younger than Harvey, who hasn't even set foot in a professional stadium for a professional team yet.

 

[Faust]

Why Harvey emerges as Simms’ newest 'man crush'

 

[BigTex]

Jacob Gibbs
Highest career rushing EPA per snap from the 2025 RB class = RJ Harvey

Harvey was one of four RBs to avoid a tackle on at least 30% of rush attempts in each of his seasons as a starter:

Ashton Jeanty
Cam Skattebo
Bhayshul Tuten
RJ Harvey

Super fun to watch Harvey tote the rock

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900946333629882810?s=61

RJ Harvey's film is dope.

Vision, pacing, evasion, balance, strength, breakaway speed, receiving contributions -- he brings a lot.

Also important to realize that he is two years older than Bucky Irving.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900950698809839812?s=61

RJ Harvey = explosive play waiting to happen

Will be super excited if he is drafted somewhere with an opportunity to play in Year 1. He's like a Tyjae Spears/Bucky Irving hybrid. Very fun!

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1900954750801101094?s=61

No way is he close to being anything like Bucky.

Tex

Is this take based on the "what we know now" Bucky, or college Bucky?

I think he is very much like Bucky from the assessment perspective. While there is certainly a small contingent taking their well-deserved victory laps on being "right" on Bucky; the majority saw a smaller back who could run between the tackles better than you'd think for his size, but otherwise showed very little to get excited about with regards to speed, wiggle, or explosion. Then when Bucky participated in the combine, his measurables there basically validated all that was shown (or better yet NOT shown) on tape. And then he went on to be a day 3 draft pick, very end of the fourth round. Not bad draft stock, but typically you want your fantasy RBs going day 2 as there's a statistical drop off in hit rates going later than that.

So far RJ Harvey checks the first two boxes. Just ok film. Meh combine numbers. And he's projecting for similar draft capital. They comp similarly in build, and if anything Harvey actually tested better than Bucky. If I remember Bucky's vert was embarrassingly low. Nonetheless Harvey, like Bucky, (and kind of like a lot of guys every year in fantasy rookie classes) has his group of truthers who are much higher on him than consensus.

To Tex's credit; I would agree with the prediction Harvey doesn't turn out like Bucky; just likely disagree on why. I think Bucky was a long shot outlier who's film and analytical profile would not have predicted his outcome. But his NFL film shows he definitely made a skill/talent jump and is performing even better than he ever did in college and doing it against much stiffer competition. The likelihood that Harvey also does that is just low. Also, part of Bucky's success is 100% the situation he landed in. He was in a run friendly offense with a great passing game and good line to create a friendly place for RBs. His usage was also wild. I believe he was second only to Saquon Barkly in opportunities the second half of last season. A lot of things need to break Harvey's way for him to wind up following in Bucky's footsteps here.

Bucky Irving had a very interesting profile with 34 broken tackles (18%), 3.83 YAC/A, and 709 total yards after contact. He offered the best mix of broken and forced missed tackles (29), and also the best mix of rushing and receiving upside. Irving ran 236 routes and caught 56 passes for 413 yards. He broke 10 more tackles as a receiver.

I like RJ just not sure where in the draft I’d take that chance but I can’t say I knew anything about any of these players, you lose some you win some but Bucky had numbers that no other back in his class could touch. We’ll disagree on landing spots which (for running backs) I think has no value….WR, TE, QB now that might be a different story.

Bucky’s numbers were special in college reminded me of Kamara.

Tex

 

[Faust]

Matt Miller
Was hesitant to put this out there, but what the hell.

This year's Bucky Irving (Day 3 pick that becomes a starter) is RJ Harvey.

I love his game. Productive. Shifty. Decisive. Good receiver. Make you miss ability is a dream.

https://x.com/nfldraftscout/status/1907833356160557299?s=61

 

[Faust]

Jordan Schultz
UCF RJ Harvey to the #Broncos. One veteran scout tells me: “Of course Sean got him, of course. Dude can go.”

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1915937327672623597?s=61

 

[Faust]

Next Gen Stats
RD 2 | PK 60 - Broncos: RJ Harvey RB, UCF

Harvey ran for 1,400+ yards in back-to-back seasons at UCF, earning an 86 NGS production, the 3rd-highest mark by a RB in this year's class. Broncos RBs generated the 7th-fewest rushing yards over expected in the NFL last season (-78).

https://x.com/nextgenstats/status/1915938254941262249?s=61

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

Harvey squarely in 1st round consideration in all formats.

 

[cdclopper]

Harvey squarely in 1st round consideration in all formats.

My immediate reaction was I love this dude. But apparently not enough. He was under the radar in fantasy circles to the point where I hadn't heard of him til just now. Which had me eyeing him as an early-mid 2nd.

But if he's going in the 1st that means he's going ahead of a couple of NFL draft1st rounder TEs/WRs. That's a tough one for me.

 

[Faust]

RJ Harvey Fantasy Outlook: Instant Reaction

 

[JohnnyU]

Probably gets over drafted in dynasty, but I like him enough to be intrigued.

 

[Faust]

Josh Norris
"If (Jeanty) is unrealistic.... where are we falling in love with somebody... I can remember the afternoon and spending two hours" watching RJ Harvey.

"And then it was like, 'okay, be quiet'"

Sean Payton on his 2nd round RB

https://x.com/joshnorris/status/1916239559563608539?s=61

Sal Vetri
The Broncos found their RB1 — and his name is RJ Harvey.

Round 2 draft capital. No real competition in Denver.

4.40 speed, elite burst, great receiver & goal-line ability.

Sean Payton knows how to feature a back.

Harvey looks like a must-draft RB right now.

https://x.com/salvetridfs/status/1916106856935702645?s=61

Chris Simms
RJ Harvey is one of most underrated superstar potential player in league. Ankle breaker and 80 yd td ability. Had him as the #3 RB

https://x.com/csimmsqb/status/1915939628093215108?s=61

 

[Jppaul]

https://x.com/joshnorris/status/1916239559563608539?s=61

his reaction is not quite that of post draft discussion on Nix, but it's up there... like he got away with putting his hand in the cookie jar. he's trying to contain his excitement. As a Broncos fan, I'm super excited for this season.

 

[kface]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

 

[JohnnyU]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

 

[kface]

Cu

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

Curious as to how you have it?

top 3 probably going to be (super flex league)
ward
jeanty
hampton

Hunter depends on how the summer shakes out on the pick spot, so that could impact it

Maybe Judkins?

 

[JohnnyU]

Cu

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

Curious as to how you have it?

top 3 probably going to be (super flex league)
ward
jeanty
hampton

Hunter depends on how the summer shakes out on the pick spot, so that could impact it

Maybe Judkins?

See the top 5 rookie thread. I posted 15. From there you can see where I have Harvey as a respectable draft position.

 

[kface]

Cu

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

Curious as to how you have it?

top 3 probably going to be (super flex league)
ward
jeanty
hampton

Hunter depends on how the summer shakes out on the pick spot, so that could impact it

Maybe Judkins?

See the top 5 rookie thread. I posted 15. From there you can see where I have Harvey as a respectable draft position.

We differ greatly on a lot of those guys. No way I'm taking Tet, Warren, Loveland, or Golden over him.

Egbuka is interesting but you are waiting at least another year for him. If you got the bench space sure

The beauty of my year this year is i own the 4, 5, 7, 8

 

[JohnnyU]

Cu

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

Curious as to how you have it?

top 3 probably going to be (super flex league)
ward
jeanty
hampton

Hunter depends on how the summer shakes out on the pick spot, so that could impact it

Maybe Judkins?

See the top 5 rookie thread. I posted 15. From there you can see where I have Harvey as a respectable draft position.

We differ greatly on a lot of those guys. No way I'm taking Tet, Warren, Loveland, or Golden over him.

Egbuka is interesting but you are waiting at least another year for him. If you got the bench space sure

The beauty of my year this year is i own the 4, 5, 7, 8

I don't expect everyone to agree with me. As for the TEs, that was assuming TE premium 1.5 ppr scoring To me, no way I take Harvey over Tet or even Golden, but I wouldn't argue about the latter. Good luck.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

2nd round rookie RBs drafted to a team with a need at RB have an extremely high hit rate.

I think Harvey will settle in mid 1st. I don't see him making it to the late 1st in most leagues.

 

[-OZ-]

Wow, I was thinking he’d be there for my pick- 16th. I could be wrong.

 

[kface]

Cu

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

Curious as to how you have it?

top 3 probably going to be (super flex league)
ward
jeanty
hampton

Hunter depends on how the summer shakes out on the pick spot, so that could impact it

Maybe Judkins?

See the top 5 rookie thread. I posted 15. From there you can see where I have Harvey as a respectable draft position.

We differ greatly on a lot of those guys. No way I'm taking Tet, Warren, Loveland, or Golden over him.

Egbuka is interesting but you are waiting at least another year for him. If you got the bench space sure

The beauty of my year this year is i own the 4, 5, 7, 8

I don't expect everyone to agree with me. As for the TEs, that was assuming TE premium 1.5 ppr scoring Good luck.

Fair - I also don't expect anyone to agree with me. It's what makes FF so great. Can tell from the rookie thread there is maybe a top 2 and then everyone else is pretty much all over the place.

We aren't 1.5 TE premium, so they move down for me

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Wow, I was thinking he’d be there for my pick- 16th. I could be wrong.

Zero chance.

 

[kface]

2nd round rookie RBs drafted to a team with a need at RB have an extremely high hit rate.

I think Harvey will settle in mid 1st. I don't see him making it to the late 1st in most leagues.

It's about the situation as much as the talent. Why would you take a WR (Egbuka) whose chance of doing anything is slim, or RBS that are sharing a backfield?
Unless your team is great already and you are willing to wait the years for them to potentially work out

 

[eighsse2]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

I'm in a RB-nuts 1QB league ... And even I can't imagine taking him there. Would love it if he's that valuable because I would assume he'd be there for me at 1.09.

 

[efactor]

Up soon in a Devy. Deciding between Harvey and Jeremiyah Love. Love is more talented but I already know Harvey is in a good position team and situation wise. Decisions decisions.

 

[Tha Guru]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

 

[JohnnyU]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

Yeah, 24 years old is a negative as far as rookie RBs go.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

Didn't realize he was already 24, thank you

 

[kface]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

My dynasty theory for RBS is to use them for about 3-4 years (if you can even get there nowadays) and ship them for a 1st after and reload

 

[JohnnyU]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

My dynasty theory for RBS is to use them for about 3-4 years (if you can even get there nowadays) and ship them for a 1st after and reload

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
-Mike Tyson

 

[kface]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

My dynasty theory for RBS is to use them for about 3-4 years (if you can even get there nowadays) and ship them for a 1st after and reload

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
-Mike Tyson

Doesn't work out all the time but it's fun to have lots of draft picks

 

[dipandglide]

Harvey and the QBs are the wild cards of rookie drafts this year. I doubt I'll draft a lot of him now that he's going in the late 1st of my rookie drafts

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The age is really the main concern for me. It will definitely hurt his value in 2-3 years if he does hit. He'll be worth a lot less as a 26-27 year old 3rd year RB than if he were a 24 year old 3rd year RB if it all works out.

Though to be fair, part of it is that his birthday falls in the offseason (he just turned 24). So for instance Treyveon Henderson will turn 23 early in the season, and when looking at ages in-season for trades Treyveon is only going to look 1 year younger and people aren't nearly as concerned about his age.

Outside of the age thing, he's a 4.4 guy with a workhorse history, can catch the ball, no meaningful competition in Denver, and Payton apparently loved him and was super excited to draft him.

I'm in.

 

[JohnnyU]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

My dynasty theory for RBS is to use them for about 3-4 years (if you can even get there nowadays) and ship them for a 1st after and reload

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
-Mike Tyson

Doesn't work out all the time but it's fun to have lots of draft picks

Your comment reminded me of something. How many times have you come across a dynasty player who values the draft more than winning? You know the type, even when they draft a stud, they are immediately on the trading block the next year. They seem to always be drafting at the top of the draft.

 

[kface]

I have pick 4 and this is where it's going

Seems way too high to me. Kind of confirms my last post.

His age is an issue for me. By (If) the time he gets to his second contract he'll be 28. I know the rule is to play dynasty in a 3/4 year window but.......

My dynasty theory for RBS is to use them for about 3-4 years (if you can even get there nowadays) and ship them for a 1st after and reload

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
-Mike Tyson

Doesn't work out all the time but it's fun to have lots of draft picks

Your comment reminded me of something. How many times have you come across a dynasty player who values the draft more than winning? You know the type, even when they draft a stud, they are immediately on the trading block the next year. They seem to always be drafting at the top of the draft.

We have a couple of those

I'm not much a believer in the long term success of rbs. They seem to come and go so fast nowadays

I traded Montgomery after his big year for the lions and got a 1st and took nabors

 

[barackdhouse]

Definitely a wheels up spot and 2nd round capital to boot. I was hoping my Bears would grab him but ok so only thing that stuck out from watching the FBG pundits do the live draft coverage was I think Waldman said he has major ball security issues, but can be corrected. Mid 1st of rookie drafts seems right. There is not a single WR in this draft I'm in love with year 1 on any level except maybe Higgins. Read something that says he is poor vs man, though, and I'm like well ok so that's a deal breaker. Running backs it is. And the tight ends. I think round 2 should have some interesting WRs that fall but overall I think the incumbent vets did much better than we were expecting. But I do think it's wheels up in Denver for this guy.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Definitely a wheels up spot and 2nd round capital to boot. I was hoping my Bears would grab him but ok so only thing that stuck out from watching the FBG pundits do the live draft coverage was I think Waldman said he has major ball security issues, but can be corrected. Mid 1st of rookie drafts seems right. There is not a single WR in this draft I'm in love with year 1 on any level except maybe Higgins. Read something that says he is poor vs man, though, and I'm like well ok so that's a deal breaker. Running backs it is. And the tight ends. I think round 2 should have some interesting WRs that fall but overall I think the incumbent vets did much better than we were expecting. But I do think it's wheels up in Denver for this guy.

I remember a discussion around this about 5 years ago here on FBGs (maybe in the dynasty discussion thread?). So not sure if it's changed in the last 5 years (I doubt it), but the basic gist of it was that ball security issues in college are pretty much irrelevant as a predictive stat in football, especially fantasy.

Basically there is very litte correlation to ball security in college versus the NFL. And even in the cases where that issue does translate to the next level, it rarely has a major impact.

It seems to be something that is extremely easy to fix, and if anything most of the guys that end up with fumbling issues in the NFL didn't have problems in college.

Some of the worst fumblers in college were guys like Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Jay Ajayi, Miles Sanders, Melvin Gordon. None of them really had issues with it in the NFL.

Sony had some of the biggest ball security issues in college that were constantly harped on and he only ended up fumbling 4 times in his entire NFL career.

Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon were famously lambasted for it because each of them had 7 fumbles in their senior season alone. Ajayi ended up with 8 fumbles his entire NFL career. Gordon did have a decent amount of fumbles as a rookie, but quickly fixed it after that (3 fumbles total over the next 3 years, averaged a little over 2 fumbles per year for his career).

The NFL RB leaders in fumbles the last two years are Breece Hall and Kyren Williams (8 each), neither of whom had much issue with it in college, and neither of whom have had their fantasy value or playing time affected by it.

 

[-OZ-]

Wow, I was thinking he’d be there for my pick- 16th. I could be wrong.

Zero chance.

I’m sure you’re right now, my expectation was pre-draft. I knew he’d come up some but top 5 seems too far.

Fwiw, this league is very WR friendly. Last year the fifth RB went pick 26. Granted, different year (FAR fewer good picks this year) and just being the fifth RB drafted clearly doesn’t mean 4 backs will be drafted ahead of him in FF, but i had expected Henderson and Judkins to be drafted ahead of him, in FF before the draft.