RB RJ Harvey, DEN (2 Viewers)

[Biabreakable]

FWIW in the 25 year RB study I did awhile back which had a threshold combination of 30 or more VBD cross referenced with a good PPG as well the sample size almost entirely consisted of RB age 20 to 23.

This came up in regards to Devontae Booker who was a 24 year old rookie.

David Johnson Mike Anderson and someone else I forget now were also 24 years old as rookies.

So on one hand it's going against the grain as a 24 year old rookie RB is an outlier.

At the same time how can one draw any conclusion from such a small sample of examples?

The main thing I learned from the study is that the average number of good seasons for a RB to have any is two.

So maybe don't worry too much about the long term with RBs.

I think things have changed since Covid and players staying in college longer now than they used to since they can actually make money.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

When was the last time a Sean Payton drafted a running back worth putting in your lineup?
This is a very different question from "when was a Sean Payton drafted running back worth putting in your lineup?"
Related question "when was the last time a Sean Payton drafted wr was worth putting in your lineup?"

 

[joey]

Now I wish I had a 1.7-1.9 pick in one of my drafts

 

[BespokeJort]

After just a few highlights he seems like a perfectly capable receiving back.
Hard to predict just how good he will be or if he will warrant targets over a different QB decision, but he looks fine receiving.
The number of receptions college RBs get can be quite misleading for all sorts of reasons.

However, I'm one of those that think age definitely matters. 24 is old to be drafting a non stud RB in the first round. I mean he looks decent, but I certainly don't see "stud" , and at 24 already........

I'm not sure where I rank him yet but I highly doubt it's top 10 for me

If you’re a strong contender at the end of the 1st I can see the appeal, but if my team is bad enough to warrant a mid-high first RB is already towards the bottom of where I’d like to spend it barring a “one missing piece and I got otherwise unlucky” situation, even before you get into him being 24. If my projected window is 2 years out he’s working against me for the first couple and then I’d better be ready to go when the window hits or he’s already gonna be getting hard to trade for the value his production would dictate.

Obviously if he’s your clear bpa you take him (and a hit at a non-roster-optimal position beats a bust at an optimal one). But it’s sure not how I like to rebuild if all things are equal

he's roughly 1.08 or beyond, yeah he's 24 now with not much tread on the tires. I know age is way more a factor but your still getting a good for the next 4 to 5 years and I expect he will do better yr 1 then his counterparts not named Jeanty.

Frankly, most of us shouldn’t be projecting more than 5 years away anyway. Take the player you think will perform in the next few years, beyond that is totally guessing. Injuries, situations change, etc.

I mean I’m not projecting out past 5, at 3 he will be 27 and very difficult to move for fair value unless he’s healthy and actively putting up rb1 numbers. A 27 year old rb2 is probably of minimal trade interest to 10/12 teams between non-contenders who don’t want him and stacked contenders who wouldn’t start him and don’t want to bleed value on aging bench players.

 

[eighsse2]

FWIW in the 25 year RB study I did awhile back which had a threshold combination of 30 or more VBD cross referenced with a good PPG as well the sample size almost entirely consisted of RB age 20 to 23.

This came up in regards to Devontae Booker who was a 24 year old rookie.

David Johnson Mike Anderson and someone else I forget now were also 24 years old as rookies.

So on one hand it's going against the grain as a 24 year old rookie RB is an outlier.

At the same time how can one draw any conclusion from such a small sample of examples?

The main thing I learned from the study is that the average number of good seasons for a RB to have any is two.

So maybe don't worry too much about the long term with RBs.

I think things have changed since Covid and players staying in college longer now than they used to since they can actually make money.

At the same time, there are RB's that have many good seasons. You're hoping to hit a guy like that. With a 24-year-old rookie, "many good seasons" is likely out of consideration.
Maybe I'm thinking too much of a lottery mindset, though. Those Tomlinson's and Kamara's are so extremely rare. It's not really realistic to hope for that.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Now I wish I had a 1.7-1.9 pick in one of my drafts

I have the 1.07, 1.08, 1.09….I am going to have to look at this guy a bit closer with the noise in this thread. I am big Waldman guy (not the be-all-end-all for my choice) and I was surprised how low he had him ranked. Situation matters and RJ should have an opportunity, just something about Payton causes pause for me. Jaleel looked electric at times, why was he not used more?

 

[massraider]

He's getting drafted before the area where I'm interested.
He blew up at an age when guys are rookies in the NFL. Had 121 carries through 4 years in college. Uh.......

That kind of late production is a major red flag, and we have lots of data that says that.

If they had taken him in the 4th, and I was getting a discount on a RB with tools, I may take him over other prospects with holes in their analytical profile. But at pick 6 or 7, there's guys I feel like are better shots.

If I was drafting at 10, I would probably take a guy like Kyle Williams over him. Also has flaws, but I like the dynasty shot of getting Drake Maye's #1 target vs the better half of a Sean Payton RBBC.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

I just talked myself out of RJ in round 1. I'm not sure how to correctly interpret the Broncos grabbing this guy early especially considering that they also did it with Bo last year and Pat Bryant this year. Coupled with the fact that Jax had their eye on both these guys (and this ain't Trent Baalke we're talking about) I'm thinking we should really be listening to what Payton is telling us. If the ACL never happened in 2021 and he got picked by the Broncos instead of Mims, would he not have been a slam dunk first rounder? And now I'm back in...

 

[-OZ-]

After just a few highlights he seems like a perfectly capable receiving back.
Hard to predict just how good he will be or if he will warrant targets over a different QB decision, but he looks fine receiving.
The number of receptions college RBs get can be quite misleading for all sorts of reasons.

However, I'm one of those that think age definitely matters. 24 is old to be drafting a non stud RB in the first round. I mean he looks decent, but I certainly don't see "stud" , and at 24 already........

I'm not sure where I rank him yet but I highly doubt it's top 10 for me

If you’re a strong contender at the end of the 1st I can see the appeal, but if my team is bad enough to warrant a mid-high first RB is already towards the bottom of where I’d like to spend it barring a “one missing piece and I got otherwise unlucky” situation, even before you get into him being 24. If my projected window is 2 years out he’s working against me for the first couple and then I’d better be ready to go when the window hits or he’s already gonna be getting hard to trade for the value his production would dictate.

Obviously if he’s your clear bpa you take him (and a hit at a non-roster-optimal position beats a bust at an optimal one). But it’s sure not how I like to rebuild if all things are equal

he's roughly 1.08 or beyond, yeah he's 24 now with not much tread on the tires. I know age is way more a factor but your still getting a good for the next 4 to 5 years and I expect he will do better yr 1 then his counterparts not named Jeanty.

Frankly, most of us shouldn’t be projecting more than 5 years away anyway. Take the player you think will perform in the next few years, beyond that is totally guessing. Injuries, situations change, etc.

I mean I’m not projecting out past 5, at 3 he will be 27 and very difficult to move for fair value unless he’s healthy and actively putting up rb1 numbers. A 27 year old rb2 is probably of minimal trade interest to 10/12 teams between non-contenders who don’t want him and stacked contenders who wouldn’t start him and don’t want to bleed value on aging bench players.

That’s a fair, reasonable approach. Although it inherently assumes the 4-5 year projection by guessing trade value in year 3.
To your point, if I thought he’d give 3 years of RB2 type production, I’d probably draft him in the late 1st. At It stands I’m very unlikely to take him in either dynasty I’m in - possibly if he fell to 2.12 in my SF.

 

[Jppaul]

I'm thinking we should really be listening to what Payton is telling us

that's really the bottomline.

Either you trust the HC and GM or you don't.

 

[BespokeJort]

After just a few highlights he seems like a perfectly capable receiving back.
Hard to predict just how good he will be or if he will warrant targets over a different QB decision, but he looks fine receiving.
The number of receptions college RBs get can be quite misleading for all sorts of reasons.

However, I'm one of those that think age definitely matters. 24 is old to be drafting a non stud RB in the first round. I mean he looks decent, but I certainly don't see "stud" , and at 24 already........

I'm not sure where I rank him yet but I highly doubt it's top 10 for me

If you’re a strong contender at the end of the 1st I can see the appeal, but if my team is bad enough to warrant a mid-high first RB is already towards the bottom of where I’d like to spend it barring a “one missing piece and I got otherwise unlucky” situation, even before you get into him being 24. If my projected window is 2 years out he’s working against me for the first couple and then I’d better be ready to go when the window hits or he’s already gonna be getting hard to trade for the value his production would dictate.

Obviously if he’s your clear bpa you take him (and a hit at a non-roster-optimal position beats a bust at an optimal one). But it’s sure not how I like to rebuild if all things are equal

he's roughly 1.08 or beyond, yeah he's 24 now with not much tread on the tires. I know age is way more a factor but your still getting a good for the next 4 to 5 years and I expect he will do better yr 1 then his counterparts not named Jeanty.

Frankly, most of us shouldn’t be projecting more than 5 years away anyway. Take the player you think will perform in the next few years, beyond that is totally guessing. Injuries, situations change, etc.

I mean I’m not projecting out past 5, at 3 he will be 27 and very difficult to move for fair value unless he’s healthy and actively putting up rb1 numbers. A 27 year old rb2 is probably of minimal trade interest to 10/12 teams between non-contenders who don’t want him and stacked contenders who wouldn’t start him and don’t want to bleed value on aging bench players.

That’s a fair, reasonable approach. Although it inherently assumes the 4-5 year projection by guessing trade value in year 3.
To your point, if I thought he’d give 3 years of RB2 type production, I’d probably draft him in the late 1st. At It stands I’m very unlikely to take him in either dynasty I’m in - possibly if he fell to 2.12 in my SF.

I think he makes plenty of sense in the late 1st for a team good enough to be drafting in the late 1st. I was just saying if your team was bad enough to earn the ~1.04 taking him there is doing it wrong unless he’s like, transcendently good

Edit: to elaborate, essentially there’s two ways to benefit from a draft pick: the first is points in your lineup at a time when that helps you, the second is trading the guy for more than you spent.

A lot of the typical paths to the second outcome are closed, so if I were spending assets on the level of a 1st rounder I’d want to be reasonably confident I had a good shot at the first

 

[-OZ-]

After just a few highlights he seems like a perfectly capable receiving back.
Hard to predict just how good he will be or if he will warrant targets over a different QB decision, but he looks fine receiving.
The number of receptions college RBs get can be quite misleading for all sorts of reasons.

However, I'm one of those that think age definitely matters. 24 is old to be drafting a non stud RB in the first round. I mean he looks decent, but I certainly don't see "stud" , and at 24 already........

I'm not sure where I rank him yet but I highly doubt it's top 10 for me

If you’re a strong contender at the end of the 1st I can see the appeal, but if my team is bad enough to warrant a mid-high first RB is already towards the bottom of where I’d like to spend it barring a “one missing piece and I got otherwise unlucky” situation, even before you get into him being 24. If my projected window is 2 years out he’s working against me for the first couple and then I’d better be ready to go when the window hits or he’s already gonna be getting hard to trade for the value his production would dictate.

Obviously if he’s your clear bpa you take him (and a hit at a non-roster-optimal position beats a bust at an optimal one). But it’s sure not how I like to rebuild if all things are equal

he's roughly 1.08 or beyond, yeah he's 24 now with not much tread on the tires. I know age is way more a factor but your still getting a good for the next 4 to 5 years and I expect he will do better yr 1 then his counterparts not named Jeanty.

Frankly, most of us shouldn’t be projecting more than 5 years away anyway. Take the player you think will perform in the next few years, beyond that is totally guessing. Injuries, situations change, etc.

I mean I’m not projecting out past 5, at 3 he will be 27 and very difficult to move for fair value unless he’s healthy and actively putting up rb1 numbers. A 27 year old rb2 is probably of minimal trade interest to 10/12 teams between non-contenders who don’t want him and stacked contenders who wouldn’t start him and don’t want to bleed value on aging bench players.

That’s a fair, reasonable approach. Although it inherently assumes the 4-5 year projection by guessing trade value in year 3.
To your point, if I thought he’d give 3 years of RB2 type production, I’d probably draft him in the late 1st. At It stands I’m very unlikely to take him in either dynasty I’m in - possibly if he fell to 2.12 in my SF.

I think he makes plenty of sense in the late 1st for a team good enough to be drafting in the late 1st. I was just saying if your team was bad enough to earn the ~1.04 taking him there is doing it wrong unless he’s like, transcendently good

Edit: to elaborate, essentially there’s two ways to benefit from a draft pick: the first is points in your lineup at a time when that helps you, the second is trading the guy for more than you spent.

A lot of the typical paths to the second outcome are closed, so if I were spending assets on the level of a 1st rounder I’d want to be reasonably confident I had a good shot at the first

yeah, the 1.04 seems really high for him. Even if he were 22 imo.

There are 6 backs I’d take before him.

 

[Jppaul]

I was just saying if your team was bad enough to earn the ~1.04 taking him there is doing it wrong

if your team is that bad (you 'earned' 1.01 to 1.05), you should trade down and pick up more assets. You might be able to make multiple trades and get three players out of it. If my team was that bad, instead of Jeanty at 1.01, I'd rather have Luther Burden (13) -and- Jayden Higgins (16) -and- Tre Harris (18)... and keep them on taxi until next season to effectively "tank" this year.

 

[ghostguy123]

I was just saying if your team was bad enough to earn the ~1.04 taking him there is doing it wrong

if your team is that bad (you 'earned' 1.01 to 1.05), you should trade down and pick up more assets. You might be able to make multiple trades and get three players out of it. If my team was that bad, instead of Jeanty at 1.01, I'd rather have Luther Burden (13) -and- Jayden Higgins (16) -and- Tre Harris (18)... and keep them on taxi until next season to effectively "tank" this year.

Eewwwwe

 

[IHEARTFF]

The Broncos didn’t have a rb and drafted this guy in round 2. Is there some dynasty risk with age/usage? Probably but this is easily offset by situation and draft capital particularly short term.

 

[BespokeJort]

I was just saying if your team was bad enough to earn the ~1.04 taking him there is doing it wrong

if your team is that bad (you 'earned' 1.01 to 1.05), you should trade down and pick up more assets. You might be able to make multiple trades and get three players out of it. If my team was that bad, instead of Jeanty at 1.01, I'd rather have Luther Burden (13) -and- Jayden Higgins (16) -and- Tre Harris (18)... and keep them on taxi until next season to effectively "tank" this year.

That might be true for the guys at 1.05 but I’m not considering trading Jeanty for that return for a second

 

[menobrown]

I just talked myself out of RJ in round 1. I'm not sure how to correctly interpret the Broncos grabbing this guy early especially considering that they also did it with Bo last year and Pat Bryant this year. Coupled with the fact that Jax had their eye on both these guys (and this ain't Trent Baalke we're talking about) I'm thinking we should really be listening to what Payton is telling us. If the ACL never happened in 2021 and he got picked by the Broncos instead of Mims, would he not have been a slam dunk first rounder? And now I'm back in...

Draft capital is putting your money where your mouth is and will always carry more weight with me then coachspeak. Unless a RB gets drafted in round two and faces a situation like Charbonnett he's in mid to late first round mix at worst.

I always scour post-draft for what coaches are saying about players to try and get an idea of their thinking behind the pick so yes that matters as well, just not as much as draft capital. In this case I guess it depends what you want to focus on what Payton is saying for how you feel about Harvey.

If you care a lot about what the Jags think try and grab yourself some Tuten a little later, but not a lot later since he seems to be going early"ish round 2.. They preferred Harvey, their GM did not seem so bothered pivoting to Tuten.

 

[Biabreakable]

FWIW in the 25 year RB study I did awhile back which had a threshold combination of 30 or more VBD cross referenced with a good PPG as well the sample size almost entirely consisted of RB age 20 to 23.

This came up in regards to Devontae Booker who was a 24 year old rookie.

David Johnson Mike Anderson and someone else I forget now were also 24 years old as rookies.

So on one hand it's going against the grain as a 24 year old rookie RB is an outlier.

At the same time how can one draw any conclusion from such a small sample of examples?

The main thing I learned from the study is that the average number of good seasons for a RB to have any is two.

So maybe don't worry too much about the long term with RBs.

I think things have changed since Covid and players staying in college longer now than they used to since they can actually make money.

At the same time, there are RB's that have many good seasons. You're hoping to hit a guy like that. With a 24-year-old rookie, "many good seasons" is likely out of consideration.
Maybe I'm thinking too much of a lottery mindset, though. Those Tomlinson's and Kamara's are so extremely rare. It's not really realistic to hope for that.

Yes that is the main point.

Of course some of the RB end up having 3 or more good fantasy seasons. I did include Emmitt Smith in the sample. But its super rare.

David JOhnson for example had 2 very good fantasy seasons to start his career, was considered the 1st overall player around that time, had an injury season after that then came back to have a top 10 season at age 27 so he actually had 3 but he was kind of done after that.

David Johnson Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for David Johnson. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

The agre curve of decline still begins at age 28 and so many RB get injured its just a smaller window for these older rookies to become relevant in fantasy before dynasty managers should be moving on to the next guy.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Now I wish I had a 1.7-1.9 pick in one of my drafts

I have the 1.07, 1.08, 1.09….I am going to have to look at this guy a bit closer with the noise in this thread. I am big Waldman guy (not the be-all-end-all for my choice) and I was surprised how low he had him ranked. Situation matters and RJ should have an opportunity, just something about Payton causes pause for me. Jaleel looked electric at times, why was he not used more?

Pretty big ranking correction from Waldman with his post-draft list (big riser).

 

[Faust]

Why the Broncos drafted RJ Harvey to be their featured RB

 

[JohnnyU]

In rookie drafts it seems to be coming down to a decision between RJ Harvey and Kaleb Johnson. To be honest, I don't care which one I get.

 

[menobrown]

In rookie drafts it seems to be coming down to a decision between RJ Harvey and Kaleb Johnson. To be honest, I don't care which one I get.

Since the day the draft ended I was trying to sort out these two vs Judkins for Rb's 4-6 but assumed Judkins would go sooner then I picked so was more or less occupied with trying to sort out Harvey vs Kaleb. I did not really have one ranked over the other so much as team specific and tried to game it all out in the week leading up to most of my rookie drafts.

For instance I had a team picking 7 that I was trying to get younger. I decided if it came down to Kaleb or Harvey I'd go Kaleb. I ended up with Tet, who I'd have taken over both of them but they were both gone anyway .

Had a team picking 8 that I'm loaded at RB so in that sense I decided if Harvey was not a need I'd go younger and go Kaleb. (I ended up with Judkins, Harvey was gone, strongly considered Kaleb but could not get past the draft capital difference of Judkins vs Kaleb)

And another team picking 9 where I had an immediate glaring RB need and that team I would have gone with Harvey but he went 8 and I ended up with Kaleb.

So after spending all week trying to decide between the two and thinking I would have to make that decision in up to 3 different leagues I never actually had to decide.

I had 7 rookie drafts this past weekend and Harvey had the greatest disparity of draft position of any first round pick. A high of 1.3 and a low of 1.12. All leagues the same format.

 

[Faust]

Broncos rookie RJ Harvey wants 'to be better' than pair of Sean Payton's former RB stars

 

[phandango]

In rookie drafts it seems to be coming down to a decision between RJ Harvey and Kaleb Johnson. To be honest, I don't care which one I get.

Since the day the draft ended I was trying to sort out these two vs Judkins for Rb's 4-6 but assumed Judkins would go sooner then I picked so was more or less occupied with trying to sort out Harvey vs Kaleb. I did not really have one ranked over the other so much as team specific and tried to game it all out in the week leading up to most of my rookie drafts.

For instance I had a team picking 7 that I was trying to get younger. I decided if it came down to Kaleb or Harvey I'd go Kaleb. I ended up with Tet, who I'd have taken over both of them but they were both gone anyway .

Had a team picking 8 that I'm loaded at RB so in that sense I decided if Harvey was not a need I'd go younger and go Kaleb. (I ended up with Judkins, Harvey was gone, strongly considered Kaleb but could not get past the draft capital difference of Judkins vs Kaleb)

And another team picking 9 where I had an immediate glaring RB need and that team I would have gone with Harvey but he went 8 and I ended up with Kaleb.

So after spending all week trying to decide between the two and thinking I would have to make that decision in up to 3 different leagues I never actually had to decide.

I had 7 rookie drafts this past weekend and Harvey had the greatest disparity of draft position of any first round pick. A high of 1.3 and a low of 1.12. All leagues the same format.

I faced the Harvey/Kaleb decision twice in FFPC. I realize age is a factor here, but I also view FFPC as more of a redraft-oriented dynasty league versus a more "true" dynasty, mostly because the higher entry fees and shorter rosters force me to think more in terms of a "win now" philosophy. In a 1 QB league, I took Harvey at 1.08 and the next guy immediately took Kaleb at 1.09. In a Triflex league, my partner and I took Harvey at 1.11, then Dart went 1.12 and Kaleb at 2.01. I just think the "win now" aspect of FFPC makes Harvey the better choice, even if he's older -- if he's actually good, then I don't care so much that his age will likely make his dynasty value decline sooner. But I do understand that his age may be the reason why he looked good in college and that there's a decent risk that he'll suck against pro players who have matured well past the legal drinking age.

 

[menobrown]

In rookie drafts it seems to be coming down to a decision between RJ Harvey and Kaleb Johnson. To be honest, I don't care which one I get.

Since the day the draft ended I was trying to sort out these two vs Judkins for Rb's 4-6 but assumed Judkins would go sooner then I picked so was more or less occupied with trying to sort out Harvey vs Kaleb. I did not really have one ranked over the other so much as team specific and tried to game it all out in the week leading up to most of my rookie drafts.

For instance I had a team picking 7 that I was trying to get younger. I decided if it came down to Kaleb or Harvey I'd go Kaleb. I ended up with Tet, who I'd have taken over both of them but they were both gone anyway .

Had a team picking 8 that I'm loaded at RB so in that sense I decided if Harvey was not a need I'd go younger and go Kaleb. (I ended up with Judkins, Harvey was gone, strongly considered Kaleb but could not get past the draft capital difference of Judkins vs Kaleb)

And another team picking 9 where I had an immediate glaring RB need and that team I would have gone with Harvey but he went 8 and I ended up with Kaleb.

So after spending all week trying to decide between the two and thinking I would have to make that decision in up to 3 different leagues I never actually had to decide.

I had 7 rookie drafts this past weekend and Harvey had the greatest disparity of draft position of any first round pick. A high of 1.3 and a low of 1.12. All leagues the same format.

I faced the Harvey/Kaleb decision twice in FFPC. I realize age is a factor here, but I also view FFPC as more of a redraft-oriented dynasty league versus a more "true" dynasty, mostly because the higher entry fees and shorter rosters force me to think more in terms of a "win now" philosophy. In a 1 QB league, I took Harvey at 1.08 and the next guy immediately took Kaleb at 1.09. In a Triflex league, my partner and I took Harvey at 1.11, then Dart went 1.12 and Kaleb at 2.01. I just think the "win now" aspect of FFPC makes Harvey the better choice, even if he's older -- if he's actually good, then I don't care so much that his age will likely make his dynasty value decline sooner. But I do understand that his age may be the reason why he looked good in college and that there's a decent risk that he'll suck against pro players who have matured well past the legal drinking age.

That's fair on the age but do have a philosophical difference in how I manage my teams and have never ran them with the short term goal in mind. Always thinking more long term then win now, have never felt the roster constraints made it like redraft and you could keep your core together for a long time.

But certainly agree if Harvey's a stud it's not going to be a big deal. Just all things being relative is Kaleb is in same ballpark I'd rather have the younger guy. I do put more trust in Harvey for next year which is why in the examples I gave above I was going to pick Harvey in the league I had pick 9 if given a choice because I had a crying need for immediate RB help. So age is for sure not everything, but it's a big part of the equation for me with respect to what you are saying with how he looked vs younger player but also longevity/value.

 

[kutta]

I took him at 1.10 in a 1 QB, PPR league. My team is very strong and one of the top 3 title contenders, but my core is getting old:
Saquon, Henry, Achane
ARSB, JSN, Adams, Evans, Kupp, Ridley
Andrews, Likely

We can play up to 3 RBs, so I figured when Henry goes to the glue factory I’ll be able to plug in Harvey for a few years.

I agree with what others have said - great opportunity with really really weak competition for touches in a Sean Payton offense. Gotta love it.

 

[Faust]

The Coachspeak Index
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on RJ Harvey in pass protection:

“We can create different protections to make sure that the matchup’s right. Because I know the question — ‘Is he a three-down back?’ Well, he’s gonna play on third down… There’s a lot we can do, relative, to really suit his strengths.”

https://x.com/coachspeakindex/status/1921374620172886362?s=61

 

[Jail]

FWIW in the 25 year RB study I did awhile back which had a threshold combination of 30 or more VBD cross referenced with a good PPG as well the sample size almost entirely consisted of RB age 20 to 23.

This came up in regards to Devontae Booker who was a 24 year old rookie.

David Johnson Mike Anderson and someone else I forget now were also 24 years old as rookies.

So on one hand it's going against the grain as a 24 year old rookie RB is an outlier.

At the same time how can one draw any conclusion from such a small sample of examples?

The main thing I learned from the study is that the average number of good seasons for a RB to have any is two.

So maybe don't worry too much about the long term with RBs.

I think things have changed since Covid and players staying in college longer now than they used to since they can actually make money.

At the same time, there are RB's that have many good seasons. You're hoping to hit a guy like that. With a 24-year-old rookie, "many good seasons" is likely out of consideration.
Maybe I'm thinking too much of a lottery mindset, though. Those Tomlinson's and Kamara's are so extremely rare. It's not really realistic to hope for that.

Yes that is the main point.

Of course some of the RB end up having 3 or more good fantasy seasons. I did include Emmitt Smith in the sample. But its super rare.

David JOhnson for example had 2 very good fantasy seasons to start his career, was considered the 1st overall player around that time, had an injury season after that then came back to have a top 10 season at age 27 so he actually had 3 but he was kind of done after that.

David Johnson Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for David Johnson. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

The agre curve of decline still begins at age 28 and so many RB get injured its just a smaller window for these older rookies to become relevant in fantasy before dynasty managers should be moving on to the next guy.

I couldn’t remember if it was 28 or 29.

Even if he drops off at 28 you still get 4 ff seasons before he hits that mark. I will take that for his cost at 1.7-1.9 range. Man the chances of any pick in that range isn’t high anyway. Give me the rb that a coach likes enough to spend a 2nd rounder on.

 

[KellysHeroes]

FWIW in the 25 year RB study I did awhile back which had a threshold combination of 30 or more VBD cross referenced with a good PPG as well the sample size almost entirely consisted of RB age 20 to 23.

This came up in regards to Devontae Booker who was a 24 year old rookie.

David Johnson Mike Anderson and someone else I forget now were also 24 years old as rookies.

So on one hand it's going against the grain as a 24 year old rookie RB is an outlier.

At the same time how can one draw any conclusion from such a small sample of examples?

The main thing I learned from the study is that the average number of good seasons for a RB to have any is two.

So maybe don't worry too much about the long term with RBs.

I think things have changed since Covid and players staying in college longer now than they used to since they can actually make money.

At the same time, there are RB's that have many good seasons. You're hoping to hit a guy like that. With a 24-year-old rookie, "many good seasons" is likely out of consideration.
Maybe I'm thinking too much of a lottery mindset, though. Those Tomlinson's and Kamara's are so extremely rare. It's not really realistic to hope for that.

Yes that is the main point.

Of course some of the RB end up having 3 or more good fantasy seasons. I did include Emmitt Smith in the sample. But its super rare.

David JOhnson for example had 2 very good fantasy seasons to start his career, was considered the 1st overall player around that time, had an injury season after that then came back to have a top 10 season at age 27 so he actually had 3 but he was kind of done after that.

David Johnson Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for David Johnson. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

The agre curve of decline still begins at age 28 and so many RB get injured its just a smaller window for these older rookies to become relevant in fantasy before dynasty managers should be moving on to the next guy.

I couldn’t remember if it was 28 or 29.

Even if he drops off at 28 you still get 4 ff seasons before he hits that mark. I will take that for his cost at 1.7-1.9 range. Man the chances of any pick in that range isn’t high anyway. Give me the rb that a coach likes enough to spend a 2nd rounder on.

RBs train a little different now or maybe its their usage or maybe the change in rules; but they seem to be lasting a yr or 2 longer before the cliff. I feel comfortable with a 29 yr RB1 if my team is ready to roll everywhere else

 

[Jppaul]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

 

[ffmail4me]

Hype is going crazy, he just went before Hunter and Judkins in one of my SF PPR Best Ball Dynasty Leagues. I think he will do well in that system but not over these guys, especially at his "old" age for a rookie RB.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score for the Denver Broncos from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance this year, looks like the OL will be in tact from last season.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

 

[Jppaul]

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

 

[IHEARTFF]

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

RJ Harvey good, Den Oline good. Buy for redraft.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

What?

 

[Jppaul]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

What?

kind of early to be drinking, yeah?

 

[Jppaul]

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

RJ Harvey good, Den Oline good. Buy for redraft.

thanks for the translation

 

[Jppaul]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

Still curious about this. Maybe a separate thread?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

What?

kind of early to be drinking, yeah?

I'm over 50 now, day drinking at home is much safer than being out late at the bars
-I sometimes write in a way to get folks attention, break from the same ole same ole

You ask if the OL outweighs other factors or issues and I was trying to make it an easy yes
99.5 rating on PFF for run blocking, lot of overthinking on this guy

Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson and Judkins went before him and then he was selected late 2nd round
After Jeanty, I think Harvey could be the 2nd most productive RB in this rookie class '25.

FYI...haven't had a drop today but it's about that time
Thanks for posting with me

 

[Alex P Keaton]

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Fantastic Die Hard reference

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I just put rookie RBs in the best order I can, considering my own roster in a contract league, and I pick the next man up unless my gut starts to growl at the last minute. Then instead, I pick a lower guy on the spot.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

What?

kind of early to be drinking, yeah?

I'm over 50 now, day drinking at home is much safer than being out late at the bars
-I sometimes write in a way to get folks attention, break from the same ole same ole

You ask if the OL outweighs other factors or issues and I was trying to make it an easy yes
99.5 rating on PFF for run blocking, lot of overthinking on this guy

Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson and Judkins went before him and then he was selected late 2nd round
After Jeanty, I think Harvey could be the 2nd most productive RB in this rookie class '25.

FYI...haven't had a drop today but it's about that time
Thanks for posting with me

I like your commitment on this one. I have a feeling Harvey will be there for me at 1.07-1.09 (I remember you not touch dynasty, but dynasty speaking) and am pondering on taking him. My premise is simply on upside at that point, as I think he presents the case. Payton scares the baJesus out of me. I was high on McGlaughlin coming out and he performed early well (on top of great coach speak) and never saw a lot of action. Draft capital may make the difference, but I am hesitant…..

 

[mjb03003]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

What?

kind of early to be drinking, yeah?

I'm over 50 now, day drinking at home is much safer than being out late at the bars
-I sometimes write in a way to get folks attention, break from the same ole same ole

You ask if the OL outweighs other factors or issues and I was trying to make it an easy yes
99.5 rating on PFF for run blocking, lot of overthinking on this guy

Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson and Judkins went before him and then he was selected late 2nd round
After Jeanty, I think Harvey could be the 2nd most productive RB in this rookie class '25.

FYI...haven't had a drop today but it's about that time
Thanks for posting with me

I like your commitment on this one. I have a feeling Harvey will be there for me at 1.07-1.09 (I remember you not touch dynasty, but dynasty speaking) and am pondering on taking him. My premise is simply on upside at that point, as I think he presents the case. Payton scares the baJesus out of me. I was high on McGlaughlin coming out and he performed early well (on top of great coach speak) and never saw a lot of action. Draft capital may make the difference, but I am hesitant…..

Jaleel was a UDFA though… does that matter? Not necessarily, but probably?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

What?

kind of early to be drinking, yeah?

I'm over 50 now, day drinking at home is much safer than being out late at the bars
-I sometimes write in a way to get folks attention, break from the same ole same ole

You ask if the OL outweighs other factors or issues and I was trying to make it an easy yes
99.5 rating on PFF for run blocking, lot of overthinking on this guy

Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson and Judkins went before him and then he was selected late 2nd round
After Jeanty, I think Harvey could be the 2nd most productive RB in this rookie class '25.

FYI...haven't had a drop today but it's about that time
Thanks for posting with me

I like your commitment on this one. I have a feeling Harvey will be there for me at 1.07-1.09 (I remember you not touch dynasty, but dynasty speaking) and am pondering on taking him. My premise is simply on upside at that point, as I think he presents the case. Payton scares the baJesus out of me. I was high on McGlaughlin coming out and he performed early well (on top of great coach speak) and never saw a lot of action. Draft capital may make the difference, but I am hesitant…..

One more thing I like to add into the soup is the Denver Defense which already was pretty good but they added Barron to that Secondary, a player I felt should have been long gone and wish Miami would have taken at 13 in the Draft last month. My point is they are going to create turnovers and short fields, Broncos could be nursing a few leads, I see the running game there expanding and if that knocks 300-400 yds off the current Bo Nix projections which I feel are a bit high, so be it.

It's May and far from Reckoning Day, talk to me in August as camp reports pour thru here and we are forced to pivot
But for now it looks pretty good to me, he's in borderline RB3 Land based on ADP, I see RB2+ numbers

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

REDRAFT

-PFF Offensive Line run blocking score from 2024...anyone...anyone?

99.5
A+

-Before you get buckled into the rocket ship and push the button, be aware that I'm not real familiar with any of these guys on the OL and the Broncos didn't draft all of them
I don't think anyone was talking up Denver and their All World OL last season, they didn't draft anyone of significance and it looks like The OL will be in tact from last year.
How did Williams do so poorly behind such a terrific run blocking OL?

"I could talk about OL industrialization and men's fashions all day but I'm afraid work must come first and my associates here at the Ministry have some questions for all of you
Sort of fill in the blank type questions..." (movie ref you should know)

-Typical Dynasty GM in May..."But there are others, we don't know what his role is, 35 year old rookies never fare well, you'll never find the returns you seek here"
MoP: SIT DOWN!

-I'm really not interested in your dynasty team or what life will look like in 2027.
But I need the Harvey Code Key because I am interested in the potential 1,800 yds and 15+ TDs locked in the FF vaults and the computer controls the vaults

-Dynasty GMs..."It's useless to you, there are all kinds of RBs you can take around this area, you don't need to fix on Harvey"
MoP: I'm going to count to 3(3rd round), there will not be a 4(4th round)
Give me the Harvey Code please

That was dramatic and meant to get your attention. Harvey also avg about 12-13 yds per catch, just didn't get enough targets at UCF and only had about 20 catches per season
I think he will be one of those Running Backs that people kick themselves for not grabbing, his ADP is around RB26 right now, I took him RB21 in a 16-team Survivor best ball format

I am going to double down with him early and often on many of my Redrafts this year which is my primary focus when I post at all of you
Harvey has a chance to be one of the top RBs from this class in 2025. After Jeanty, you can debate a lot about who will finish as Rookie RB2 this year

Cheers!

Umm, what?

What?

kind of early to be drinking, yeah?

Joe wouldn't allow someone on staff postulating in the Shark Pool while hitting the bottle all day.

PUIs don't fly on FBGs, guy.

 

[Biabreakable]

Is there a point where the OL is good enough that a RB's PassPro is irrelevant?

No.

Defenses can set up twists and stunts to overload a gap which only the RB would be able to match.

That said CMC was terrible is pass protection as a rookie so they mostly just had him run routes.

So the play design can be such that the RB isn't a factor in the protection but the defense can do things then to get a pass rusher that will not be accounted for.

So obviously good offensive line helps. It just doesn't negate the defense having more pass rushers than the offense on certain plays.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Hype is going crazy, he just went before Hunter and Judkins in one of my SF PPR Best Ball Dynasty Leagues. I think he will do well in that system but not over these guys, especially at his "old" age for a rookie RB.

Over Hunter is insane, you can talk me into over Judkins... atleast once

 

[ghostguy123]

Not sure over Hunter is "insane". Remember, Brian Thomas is there, plus there's a real chance his snaps are limited, or even made full time DB

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Not sure over Hunter is "insane". Remember, Brian Thomas is there, plus there's a real chance his snaps are limited, or even made full time DB

What odds do you put on him being a full time DB? They only have 1 other WR who is starter quality — B Thomas.

 

[Jppaul]

Not sure over Hunter is "insane". Remember, Brian Thomas is there, plus there's a real chance his snaps are limited, or even made full time DB

What odds do you put on him being a full time DB? They only have 1 other WR who is starter quality — B Thomas.

30% wr 70% db