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WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (2 Viewers)

Brett Kollmann
Stat that sounds made up but is completely real:

66.3% of all routes run by Brian Thomas Jr. this year were either go routes, curls, or hitches.

41.6% were just curls or hitches.

For reference, Odunze and Marv were at 16.5% and 16.7% on curls and hitches, respectively.
Excuse my relative ignorance, but I'm assuming this is intended as a negative point, right? That is to say, you want someone prolific at as many routes as possible, and if one is prolific at many routes, he's probably being used frequently on many different routes, not largely three routes?
 
Brett Kollmann
Stat that sounds made up but is completely real:

66.3% of all routes run by Brian Thomas Jr. this year were either go routes, curls, or hitches.

41.6% were just curls or hitches.

For reference, Odunze and Marv were at 16.5% and 16.7% on curls and hitches, respectively.
Excuse my relative ignorance, but I'm assuming this is intended as a negative point, right? That is to say, you want someone prolific at as many routes as possible, and if one is prolific at many routes, he's probably being used frequently on many different routes, not largely three routes?
Yes, intended as a negative. A lack of versatility.
 
Don't forget that Pickens was and is nearly the exact same way with his routes. Go routes, curls, and hitches.

Actually, there are quite a few guys that fall into that category and why Brett Kollmann, who studies this as far as I can tell, is surprised is beyond me, really. Unless the numbers are just staggering, but they don't seem so.
 
I wish I saw more of what he's capable of doing in college, but when you have Nabers there doing his thing, you don't need 2 WRs doing the same thing.
BTJ did what he did, and he did it VERY well.
 
So this guy lives in the end zone, huh? Just saw a highlight package. Has great acceleration from a dead stop. That's what jumped out at me. Will be interested in combine times.

He was making some catches that were pro catches. Like aerials with both feet in bounds. Even took a pass/jet sweep to the house from about ten.

Good stuff.
 
Austin Abbott
𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗝𝗿. could 𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗟𝗬 be a 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿 y’all

➖𝟲’𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟱 𝗹𝗯𝘀
➖𝟭,𝟭𝟳𝟳 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀
➖𝟭𝟳 𝗧𝗗’𝘀 (𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟯 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀)

It’s hard to 𝗳𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗺 just how fast he is (𝟰.𝟰𝟳) for his 𝘀𝗶𝘇𝗲, his 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 was also 𝗢𝗙𝗙 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀.

➖Scored a 𝗧𝗗 on 𝟮𝟱% of his 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀
➖𝗩𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗢𝗡𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗥
➖𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙥: 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝘃𝗶𝘀 𝗕𝗿𝘆𝗮𝗻𝘁

If the 𝗖𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶 𝗕𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗹𝘀 don’t want to pay 𝗧𝗲𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀, resetting that 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 is never a bad option. They could very well 𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 with the 𝟭𝟴𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗽𝗶𝗰𝗸.


Snoog’s Dynasty Society
Very few WRs that can sell vertically and sink their hips like that at his size.
 
Snoog’s Dynasty Society
Brian Thomas Jr Is A Standout Amongst 2024 NFL Draft Wide Receivers

2023: 68/1,177/17 TD
2022: 31/361/5 TD
2021: 28/359/2 TD

- Explosive athlete
- 50/50 ball winner
- Fluid body control
- Elite vertical threat

Dominant Explosive Playmaking at 6’4, The Next Tee Higgins

Brian Thomas Jr. had a really high ceiling at the next level, starting playing FB at late age.

Well rounded skillset with incredible explosiveness, fluidity, and ball skills at 6’4.

His breakout/TD scoring of a season cemented himself as a 1st rounder.

Brian Thomas Jr has incredible spatial awareness.

He’s very good at making plays with very little room to work with and makes it look easy.

Easy slot fade, creates separation, both feet in bounds, and soft hands 💨

If you give Brian Thomas Jr a chance to make a play, he’ll likely make it.

The ball tracking and spatial awareness to make this play in the back of the end zone in tight 1-1 coverage is 🔥

I’ll be drafting a lot of him in this upcoming rookie draft…

Another day, another Brian Thomas Jr big play.

This time it comes from his yards after catch skills and ability to make defenders miss.

Turns a 1st down into a 60+ yard TD making two defenders miss horrifically 💨

You better take the right angles in open field against Brian Thomas Jr.

The movement/ability to create after the catch is what translates at the next level.

After the consensus big 7, consider Brian Thomas my guy due to my love for chasing upside.

Something in that water at LSU.

Breeding WR talent over there.

The ability to high point this ball and get two feet down with no room to work with is why Brian Thomas Jr will be a top 4 WR in 2024.

Another TD would’ve been added to Brian Thomas Jr’s resume with a good throw here.

His ability to natural separate off the line of scrimmage with his explosive play makes him an elite vertical threat.
 
Doug Farrar
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

PLUSES

-- He's creeping death on go and seam routes; nice build-up speed, and then whammo -- he's gone.
-- Extensive library of foot fakes both at the LOS and when in open space; he knows how to get open.
-- Leans into and out of his routes to create openings, and the burner speed comes right back up.
-- Leverages his routes to coverage; would work well in any option route offense.
-- Great at slow-playing cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage before turning on the jets.

MINUSES

-- Could be more sudden on quick cuts.
-- Drops show up on tape and could be an issue at the next level.
-- Will face a crapton more press coverage than he did in college.
-- Not a contested-catch receiver per se; his game is about getting free from those situations.
-- Can he feast on more than go/seam and hitch stuff? Remains to be seen.

I love Thomas as a complementary speed target. I'm not sure if he's ready to be a true WR1 just yet.
 
Doug Farrar
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

PLUSES

-- He's creeping death on go and seam routes; nice build-up speed, and then whammo -- he's gone.
-- Extensive library of foot fakes both at the LOS and when in open space; he knows how to get open.
-- Leans into and out of his routes to create openings, and the burner speed comes right back up.
-- Leverages his routes to coverage; would work well in any option route offense.
-- Great at slow-playing cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage before turning on the jets.

MINUSES

-- Could be more sudden on quick cuts.
-- Drops show up on tape and could be an issue at the next level.
-- Will face a crapton more press coverage than he did in college.
-- Not a contested-catch receiver per se; his game is about getting free from those situations.
-- Can he feast on more than go/seam and hitch stuff? Remains to be seen.

I love Thomas as a complementary speed target. I'm not sure if he's ready to be a true WR1 just yet.
Whol is Doug Farrar? NFL Editor, USA TODAY Sports Media Group. What makes him an expert?

Edit to remove "Who the hell is...". It gives the impression I don't like Farrer, who I know nothing about.
 
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Doug Farmer

Doug Farrar. He's been a football writer for a long time. He once wrote the Shutdown Corner thread over at Yahoo! He's been on the beat forever. I followed him on Twitter years ago but he seemed to have a political agenda, too, one that I won't get into.

He's generally a knowledgeable football guy in my estimation. Definitely somebody worth listening to.
 
Doug Farmer

Doug Farrar. He's been a football writer for a long time. He once wrote the Shutdown Corner thread over at Yahoo! He's been on the beat forever. I followed him on Twitter years ago but he seemed to have a political agenda, too, one that I won't get into.

He's generally a knowledgeable football guy in my estimation. Definitely somebody worth listening to.
I don't feel like doing the research, but I wonder what his hit and misses have been on non-obvious players in the last 5 years.
 
I don't feel like doing the research, but I wonder what his hit and misses have been on non-obvious players in the last 5 years.

I don't know. I think he knows his stuff more than your average football writer. That was always the impression I got.
 
Doug Farrar

Over 15 years of covering the NFL with the following bio on media outlets that have paid him to cover the NFL:

I'm currently the National NFL Writer at the USA Today Sports Media Group. I've also written for Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo! Sports, Football Outsiders, the Seattle Times, and the Washington Post. "The Genius of Desperation" is my first book
Doug has also written about the NFL for the Athletic and he Has been accredited to attend the Senior Bowl for numerous years.

Doug spends countless hours watching tape, talking to scouts, his peers, and NFL team sources and he has 59,000 followers on X.

If that carries no weight for you, then perhaps the fact that the Associated Press includes him in the All-Pro and MVP voting might make a difference.

If after all of that you still feel that he has no expertise, then by all means, please feel free to disregard his content.
 
This isn't Daniel Kelly, who is busy getting mocked on Twitter these days for his hot takes. I'm not the only one who noticed.

Farrar's observations have always carried weight with me. Even though he's been wrong at times, he's pretty knowledgeable.
 
Maybe we pump the brakes a tad...I saw this post in massraider's analytics thread and figured it was really a Brian Thomas post especially since we're falling back a tad to reality from Doug Farrar analysis above.
Round 1-2 WRs since the 2018 Draft at a <2.0 YPRR in college (via PFF)

DK Metcalf
Dante Pettis
Van Jefferson
Chase Claypool
Terrace Marshall
Tyquan Thornton
Jonathan Mingo

2024:
Keon Coleman
Brian Thomas Jr
Adonai Mitchell
Xavier Legette
Ricky Pearsall
Ja’Lynn Polk
Ainias Smith
 
Apologies here fellow members of the FBG community for derailing the thread for a few minutes.

@JohnnyU adds a lot of great stuff at times and a perfect example is the thread that he kicked off on the 2024 RB class that has generated some great discussion.

I felt the need to showcase that Doug Farrar has some degree of credibility in my opinion; however, everyone has a right to disagree with that take.

Scouting NFL players coming into the league is never an exact science. Doug Farrar is perhaps not quite on the level of say someone like Dane Brugler or Daniel Jeremiah; however, even those guys get it wrong and for that matter the actual NFL has a significant swing and miss rate with early rounds - never mind mid and late round picks.

Success rates on their views are not what I get caught up with - especially when it’s a scouting report that is only one data point in the spectrum and not even a writer sticking their neck out making a call on the outcome if a player will be a hit or a miss in the NFL.

Now back to the discussion about Brian Thomas Jr.
 
Apologies here fellow members of the FBG community for derailing the thread for a few minutes.

@JohnnyU adds a lot of great stuff at times and a perfect example is the thread that he kicked off on the 2024 RB class that has generated some great discussion.

I felt the need to showcase that Doug Farrar has some degree of credibility in my opinion; however, everyone has a right to disagree with that take.

Scouting NFL players coming into the league is never an exact science. Doug Farrar is perhaps not quite on the level of say someone like Dane Brugler or Daniel Jeremiah; however, even those guys get it wrong and for that matter the actual NFL has a significant swing and miss rate with early rounds - never mind mid and late round picks.

Success rates on their views are not what I get caught up with - especially when it’s a scouting report that is only one data point in the spectrum and not even a writer sticking their neck out making a call on the outcome if a player will be a hit or a miss in the NFL.

Now back to the discussion about Brian Thomas Jr.
I'm sure you already have this information, so who are the WRs, both hits and misses the last two or three years for Farrer? Even though they has their misses, I prefer to guys like Matt Waldman or Greg Cosell.
 
I'm sure you already have this information, so who are the WRs, both hits and misses the last two or three years for Farrer?

Yeah, I don’t have the spare time to track that but I do know that I do find that Doug’s content is pretty thoughtful and detailed and I track it because I find it worthwhile to read. Feel free to disagree.

Can I asked you what you did not like about what Doug wrote that provoked you to question his expertise?
 
Apologies here fellow members of the FBG community for derailing the thread for a few minutes.

@JohnnyU adds a lot of great stuff at times and a perfect example is the thread that he kicked off on the 2024 RB class that has generated some great discussion.

I felt the need to showcase that Doug Farrar has some degree of credibility in my opinion; however, everyone has a right to disagree with that take.

Scouting NFL players coming into the league is never an exact science. Doug Farrar is perhaps not quite on the level of say someone like Dane Brugler or Daniel Jeremiah; however, even those guys get it wrong and for that matter the actual NFL has a significant swing and miss rate with early rounds - never mind mid and late round picks.

Success rates on their views are not what I get caught up with - especially when it’s a scouting report that is only one data point in the spectrum and not even a writer sticking their neck out making a call on the outcome if a player will be a hit or a miss in the NFL.

Now back to the discussion about Brian Thomas Jr.
I'm sure you already have this information, so who are the WRs, both hits and misses the last two or three years for Farrer? Even though they has their misses, I prefer to guys like Matt Waldman or Greg Cosell.
Google is your friend


Thanks Faust for all you do, appreciate the time and effort that you put into these boards.
 
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I'm sure you already have this information, so who are the WRs, both hits and misses the last two or three years for Farrer?

Yeah, I don’t have the spare time to track that but I do know that I do find that Doug’s content is pretty thoughtful and detailed and I track it because I find it worthwhile to read. Feel free to disagree.

Can I asked you what you did not like about what Doug wrote that provoked you to question his expertise?
I didn't say I disliked his take, but probably shouldn't have said "Who the hell is ....". That implies I don't like him. , I said, "What makes him an expert?" I don't know anything about him and probably should since several like him. I just asked what are his hits and misses the last few years in order to learn more about him.
 
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Apologies here fellow members of the FBG community for derailing the thread for a few minutes.

@JohnnyU adds a lot of great stuff at times and a perfect example is the thread that he kicked off on the 2024 RB class that has generated some great discussion.

I felt the need to showcase that Doug Farrar has some degree of credibility in my opinion; however, everyone has a right to disagree with that take.

Scouting NFL players coming into the league is never an exact science. Doug Farrar is perhaps not quite on the level of say someone like Dane Brugler or Daniel Jeremiah; however, even those guys get it wrong and for that matter the actual NFL has a significant swing and miss rate with early rounds - never mind mid and late round picks.

Success rates on their views are not what I get caught up with - especially when it’s a scouting report that is only one data point in the spectrum and not even a writer sticking their neck out making a call on the outcome if a player will be a hit or a miss in the NFL.

Now back to the discussion about Brian Thomas Jr.
I'm sure you already have this information, so who are the WRs, both hits and misses the last two or three years for Farrer? Even though they has their misses, I prefer to guys like Matt Waldman or Greg Cosell.
Google is your friend



Thanks Faust for all you do, appreciate the time and effort that you put into these boards.
Not a IDP guy on the first one, but he definitely had his misses in the 2nd one. Also, not much of a leap on Breece Hall #1, who didn't?

Edit: Oh wait, that isn't a Farrer article in the 2nd one. Some guy named Hickey.
 
Not a IDP guy on the first one, but he definitely had his misses in the 2nd one. Also, not much of a leap on Breece Hall #1, who didn't?

Edit: Oh wait, that isn't a Farrer article in the 2nd one. Some guy named Hickey.
Oops, sorry, removed that one
 
Is Brian Thomas Jr. the 4th rated WR in the class?
I would really like to hear who others believe is their top 5 WRs in this class. It seems like a consensus for the top 3 with MHjr, Nabers, and Odunze. Who is 4 and 5? Do you have someone that replaces one of the top three? I highly doubt that however. Who is 4 and 5?
 
Daniel Jeremiah's top 50: 2024 NFL Draft prospect rankings 1.0

Excerpt:

Thomas is a big, explosive wideout with incredible production, including an FBS-best 17 touchdown catches this past season. He lines up outside and in the slot. He easily defeats press coverage with his quickness. He is very sudden in his release and can find another gear once the ball is up in the air. He is very loose and fluid as a route runner. He has snap at the top of the route and doesn't waste steps. He has a very large catch radius because of his frame, leaping ability and ball skills. After the catch, he has some wiggle to make defenders miss and also boasts home run speed. Overall, Thomas is a big-play machine and has the upside to develop into a No. 1 receiver for his drafting team.

DJ currently has him as WR #4 and the #15 prospect overall.
 
I would really like to hear who others believe is their top 5 WRs in this class. It seems like a consensus for the top 3 with MHjr, Nabers, and Odunze. Who is 4 and 5? Do you have someone that replaces one of the top three? I highly doubt that however. Who is 4 and 5?
The consensus boards and Grinding the Mocks have Thomas and Coleman at 4/5.

Which is........ whatever. Just a data point right now.

I think during the pre-draft process, people will emerge, but it feels close enough that the order after the top 3 will have as much to do with the team drafting as to where they are ranked by the media.
 
Is Brian Thomas Jr. the 4th rated WR in the class?
I would really like to hear who others believe is their top 5 WRs in this class. It seems like a consensus for the top 3 with MHjr, Nabers, and Odunze. Who is 4 and 5? Do you have someone that replaces one of the top three? I highly doubt that however. Who is 4 and 5?
I have Brian Thomas, Jr. (LSU) and Troy Franklin (Oregon) penciled into the 4-5 spots right now, but this is a deep, talented class.
 
Is Brian Thomas Jr. the 4th rated WR in the class?
I would really like to hear who others believe is their top 5 WRs in this class. It seems like a consensus for the top 3 with MHjr, Nabers, and Odunze. Who is 4 and 5? Do you have someone that replaces one of the top three? I highly doubt that however. Who is 4 and 5?
I have Brian Thomas, Jr. (LSU) and Troy Franklin (Oregon) penciled into the 4-5 spots right now, but this is a deep, talented class.
I like that 4 and 5. Another WR I'm keeping my eye on is Ladd McConkey. The guy is always open and his YAC looked good to me when I watched him. Also hearing some good buzz about Roman Wilson.
 
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Bucky Brooks' top five 2024 NFL Draft prospects by position 1.0: Jayden Daniels at QB2 over Drake Maye

Bucky currently has Keon Coleman at #4 and Brian Thomas Jr. at #5 - I don’t personally agree with that order; however, Bucky watches a lot more film than I do and he’s way more plugged in to the scouting community than I am.
Repeating what someone said in another thread, I think N'Keal Harry has spooked a lot of fantasy folks regarding Coleman. I personally think he has many warts, but is a great jump ball guy.
 
Doug Farmer

Doug Farrar. He's been a football writer for a long time. He once wrote the Shutdown Corner thread over at Yahoo! He's been on the beat forever. I followed him on Twitter years ago but he seemed to have a political agenda, too, one that I won't get into.

He's generally a knowledgeable football guy in my estimation. Definitely somebody worth listening to.
He's possibly the thinnest skinned man alive.

I'm not exaggerating one iota when I say I've been on twitter pretty much since it started and he's the only person to ever block me and it was over absolutely noting, for sure not insults. Told me a lot about him and I don't think I'm missing much.
 
I'm sure you already have this information, so who are the WRs, both hits and misses the last two or three years for Farrer?

Yeah, I don’t have the spare time to track that but I do know that I do find that Doug’s content is pretty thoughtful and detailed and I track it because I find it worthwhile to read. Feel free to disagree.

Can I asked you what you did not like about what Doug wrote that provoked you to question his expertise?
I didn't say I disliked his take, but probably shouldn't have said "Who the hell is ....". That implies I don't like him. , I said, "What makes him an expert?" I don't know anything about him and probably should since several like him. I just asked what are his hits and misses the last few years in order to learn more about him.
He had been writing professionally for about as long as you have been posting in this forum.

So yeah you should know something about him by now.
 
I'm sure you already have this information, so who are the WRs, both hits and misses the last two or three years for Farrer?

Yeah, I don’t have the spare time to track that but I do know that I do find that Doug’s content is pretty thoughtful and detailed and I track it because I find it worthwhile to read. Feel free to disagree.

Can I asked you what you did not like about what Doug wrote that provoked you to question his expertise?
I didn't say I disliked his take, but probably shouldn't have said "Who the hell is ....". That implies I don't like him. , I said, "What makes him an expert?" I don't know anything about him and probably should since several like him. I just asked what are his hits and misses the last few years in order to learn more about him.
He had been writing professionally for about as long as you have been posting in this forum.

So yeah you should know something about him by now.
Im sorry, but I didn’t for whatever reasons, probably best to get back to the subject of this thread.
 
So was quentin last year. This guy is the same squirrel in the same tree
Hey i might agree
I'm only pointing out that everyone has Coleman there.

Which is simply a function of the fact that Coleman has been there all year.

If I could make one prop bet right now, it would be to take the Over on whatever his draft slot currently is set at.

By the draft, Coleman will be outside Bucky's top 5, I am sure.
 
Keon won't be a 1st round nfl pick imo. Probably not really a stretch, but 2nd half of the 2nd round wouldn't shock me either
 
He's possibly the thinnest skinned man alive.

I'm not exaggerating one iota when I say I've been on twitter pretty much since it started and he's the only person to ever block me and it was over absolutely noting, for sure not insults. Told me a lot about him and I don't think I'm missing much

I fully believe that. He would go off on tangents that were sideways pretty often. His political temperament (not his policy preference, but his demeanor about it) turned me off. I don't follow him anymore because he was caustic towards a lot of people and things.

But other than once saying that Ronald Jones was the eleventh best RB in the league, which partially prompted me to trade for him, he's usually pretty good in his assessment. Except when other issues come into play. Like Justin Fields's processing time at OSU. Fields had critics, and Farrar accused that line of thinking of being a product of old-time racism. I hated that, and wrote about it at length on these boards.

So yeah, he's a knowledgeable guy, but what sort of agenda are you getting seems to be a legitimate question when appropriate.

This is in no way to cast doubt upon him because I've seen much lesser writers all over the place making much greater mistakes and for much worse reasons than Farrar has. At least that's in my estimation. This guy isn't Daniel Kelly.
 

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