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WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (2 Viewers)

I have the 3rd and 6th pick in a 14 team ppr DEVY draft where Nabers and Odunze will probably go 1 and 2. Unless he goes to a horrible spot I’ll probably take Thomas at #3. Keep in mind it’s a DEVY before asking about MHjr. Franklin also already rostered. Most of the RBs are available. So is Daniels.
 
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So yeah, he's a knowledgeable guy
If you say so I believe you. Truly.

I had only followed him one NFL off-season, showed up on a list of recommended NFL follows back in 2012. I do recall he hyped me up on Coby Fleener, he was quite big on him, but I don't hold any singe misses against people, we all do that.

He ended up blocking me just a few months after I started following him, during Fleeners rookie season, the night of the "Fail Mary" play.

….but….but….Brian Thomas Jr. is…..what if the Bills draft him?
In order to assist with getting back on Brian Thomas Jr is the Bills draft him he'd simply remain where he is for me, my 4th ranked WR and 5th ranked player in single QB leagues and if I was sitting on pick 5 it would not be able to take away the pain of that pick not being one higher.
 
If you say so I believe you. Truly.

Uh oh. Now my credibility hangs on this guy who I think has passion and worldview affect his work. He'd better be right this year or the cultural wind best be blowing his way. One of the two. Heh.

Back to Thomas. I have been reading he's less refined a route runner than Harrison, Nabers, Odzune, and Franklin. Not sure if it's just somebody's say-so and it's getting repeated, but that seems to be the way it's going. I'm waiting for Matt Harmon's Reception Perception to tell a bigger story.

And who am I fooling? I'm not in range to draft any of these guys.
 
Fantasy consensus seems to have him as rookie WR 4 barely ahead of Troy Franklin. Best Ball 12-team redraft Brian Thomas Jr goes just before Troy around pick 75.

Slots in after guys like Godwin, Hopkins, Pickens, and JSN. upside pick swinging for the fences. Big play receiver that’ll make it past the worst teams at the NFL draft.
 
I thought he was a likely top 20 pick and locked in WR4 of this draft, in both real and fantasy, and in a tier of his own for awhile now.

Before today he was Bruglers overall player 14 and Jeremiahs overall player 15.

All today did was seal the deal on this stuff and only thing that might ding his draft stock a little, as well as the 3 at the front, is the supply might work against them a little.
 
4.33 just solidifies everything. Franklin’s 4.41 is a great time, too. Not sure why people would ding him for that, but Thomas seems to be solidified as WR4 or even maybe leapfrog Odunze.
 
4.33 just solidifies everything. Franklin’s 4.41 is a great time, too. Not sure why people would ding him for that, but Thomas seems to be solidified as WR4 or even maybe leapfrog Odunze.
Yeah he’s top 5 for single QB right now. Obviously draft matters but this is hard to ignore.
 
hold your horses, young man.

They're chomping at the bit.

I kid. I put that in there to stir some debate up with the thought that a contested catch guy might not be so appealing when the alternative is a bigger, faster dude who produced also his last year of school. That said, Odunze gets raves for his tracking and catching the football and I haven't heard that so much about Thomas. So just take it with a grain of salt. But Thomas definitely solidified his stock today.
 
hold your horses, young man.

They're chomping at the bit.

I kid. I put that in there to stir some debate up with the thought that a contested catch guy might not be so appealing when the alternative is a bigger, faster dude who produced also his last year of school. That said, Odunze gets raves for his tracking and catching the football and I haven't heard that so much about Thomas. So just take it with a grain of salt. But Thomas definitely solidified his stock today.

Thomas ends up with Josh Allen, we may have to rethink #3 a bit for fantasy (I'd likely still go with Odunze)... But Thomas is a very good WR. No doubt.
Odunze, for me, is special.
 
I'm not sure I'd put Thomas with Odunze, but I'm also not putting any other WRs with Thomas right now.
Someone may fall in love with Worthy as the 4th WR if he goes to KC or Buffalo.
That would be great since Im not high on Worthy and would love it if he went top 6 ( I pick 7). Hoping a RB lands in a great spot too so maybe Thomas makes it to me.
 
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My comp for him is Andre Johnson. How do you guys feel about that?

I mean... He's big, ya. But BTJ is mainly a vertical threat. Not close to Andre in traffic
Agree that BTJ isn't the prospect that AJ was coming out of college, but he's still kind of raw. He has gotten better every year, and has plenty more room to grow and learn. I think his athletic potential puts him in the conversation with guys like Johnson. Johnson just got there much sooner than BTJ did.
I fully realize that Thomas may never get there, but it's possible.
 
Chris Simms
Brian Thomas Jr. runs by EVERYBODY. Love how he uses his size so well to box out and get to contested balls. Extremely twitchy for a guy his size. And after the catch, he's angry. Looking to score every time he has the ball.
#2 WR this year
Here is every target of Brian Thomas Jr in 2023

I just came across the video, and watched it, and came here to say how meh he was, and didn't do crap after the catch, and see this from Simms. I am not sure Simms watched any of Thomas.
 

Excerpt:

NFL TRANSITION:

Watching Thomas' 2023 tape, I sensed that he is an ascending talent with much to be cultivated and developed as you project and transition him to the next level. He is a long, smooth athlete with the accelerating speed to run by and get on top of corners. There is no question he is a vertical dimension who seemed to consistently find an extra gear as the ball was in the air.

There was a fluidity to his movement that belied his size and length. While he was not sudden or explosive, his movement had an easy gliding feel and a deceptive quickness. Thomas could be a work in progress as he transitions to the NFL, given that you did not see a lot of route diversity and that there was not a true physical element to his game.

But as I watched all his targets, I thought there might be some similarities to Tee Higgins. The bottom line with Thomas is he has home run ability with his size and stride length. That trait is always in demand. I believe there can be more to his game with coaching and natural development.

Excerpt for @massraider from the weaknesses section:

  • Two things you did not see much of on the 2023 tape: Multiple route concepts and run-after-catch.
 
Chris Simms
Brian Thomas Jr. runs by EVERYBODY. Love how he uses his size so well to box out and get to contested balls. Extremely twitchy for a guy his size. And after the catch, he's angry. Looking to score every time he has the ball.
#2 WR this year
Here is every target of Brian Thomas Jr in 2023

I just came across the video, and watched it, and came here to say how meh he was, and didn't do crap after the catch, and see this from Simms. I am not sure Simms watched any of Thomas.
I honestly have no idea how you watched that and came to that conclusion. I know you know your stuff, but this just kind of shocked me when I saw it. This guy oozes talent and is only going to get better. He does have some work to do, but he seems to have gotten better every year so far.
 
He looks electric, and a bit one dimensional and untidy in places as well. Lots to like, lots to be wary of also.

Defo a lot of potential, and defo some bust potential as well.

Feels like if he fell to an organization with a history of developing WR's he could become fantastic.
 
I saw deep passes, and I saw hitches. He breaks loose a few times, big deal.

I did not see any YAC worth speaking about.

He looks like a potential solid #2 WR. Maybe a great one. Gabe Davis-ish? MIke Williams? Can have 1,000 and 8-10 TDs, but I don't see a target monster.

We didn't see a lot of routes from him, but that does not mean he can't do them, to be clear. We just haven't seen him do it.
 
From NFL.com

Strengths​

  • Good job of steering clear of press hands during his release.
  • Short-area shake helps uncover for quick hitters underneath.
  • Able to bend hips and sit in the chair at route breaks.
  • Straight-line speed takes him into top position on go routes.
  • Outstanding ball-tracker who can bring it in over his shoulder.
  • Length and burst to run down and secure potential overthrows.
  • Led nation with 17 receiving scores at a pace of one every four catches.

Weaknesses​

  • Needs to pick up his route pace and salesmanship as a pro.
  • Will battle occasional focus drops.
  • Can avoid catch contact by working back to the throw.
  • Fast but possesses average run-after-catch talent.
  • Might need to ramp up physicality against clingy coverage.

From Bleacherreport.com

POSITIVES
— Great acceleration and top speed. Serious vertical threat both outside and from the slot.
— Good ability to win at the line of scrimmage and stack on top of defensive backs.
— Fluid mover for a player of his size. Navigates the open field very well.
— Above-average ability to track and catch the ball down the field.
— Flashes of snappy route-running, especially on simple one-cut routes.

NEGATIVES
— Footwork and coordination fail him at times. Gets too loose with his feet at the top of routes that ask him to settle and explode back to the ball.

— Below-average ability to fight through contact for a player his size.
— Can struggle to find and fight for the ball in traffic. Better as a vertical ball tracker than a contested catch player.


From NFLbuzz.com

SCOUTING REPORT: STRENGTHS​

  • Exceptional ability to start and stop quickly, showcasing agility and control.
  • Boasts outstanding length, providing an advantage in reaching and securing the ball.
  • Demonstrates natural explosiveness, aiding in creating separation.
  • Moves fluidly, enhancing route-running capabilities.
  • Exhibits violent change of direction, making him elusive after the catch.
  • Proves to be a formidable red-zone target with his ability to high-point the ball effectively.
  • Has an impressive repertoire of releases, helping to beat press coverage.
  • Exhibits excellent ball-tracking skills, consistently posing a threat on downfield passes.


SCOUTING REPORT: WEAKNESSES​

  • Route breaks on short and intermediate routes can be inefficient.
  • While a vertical and crossing route threat, he shows an underdeveloped overall route tree.
  • Long limbs and unsteady footwork occasionally lead to inconsistent route breaks.
  • Needs to utilize his speed and athleticism more effectively to uncover against defenders.
  • Still in the process of becoming a more physical presence along the route stem.
  • Only has had a single year of being the featured player at college. Prior to 2023 his play was far from noteworthy

From SportsIllustraded.com

Where Thomas creates advantages​

Thomas's athletic profile is one of the most intriguing in this entire draft class, let alone at just the wide receiver position. He's a tantalizing jump ball and/or deep threat, as he boasts good length blended with good timing on his leaps. Additionally, Thomas is competitive at the catch point and has strong hands when he goes up for the ball. Those hands are mostly dependable. His 17 touchdowns during his final collegiate season led the nation — a testament to his true breakout campaign.

Despite his size, Thomas doesn't have much rigidity in his game. His stop-start ability is plus, giving him nice yards-after-catch potential at the next level. His early meal ticket in the NFL should be winning in the red zone and creating plays within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He seemed to have good long speed on tape, which was backed up by an awesome performance at the annual NFL Scouting Combine.

Where Thomas could be at a disadvantage​

While Thomas is undoubtedly an enticing prospect, he lacks high-level nuance as a route runner. At LSU, he didn't run an expansive route tree and had few chances to showcase a ton of diversity with Malik Nabers occupying so much attention. Thomas shows flashes of varying tempo in his routes but needs consistency there. His routes get rounded off at times; that's hopefully a reflection of youth rather than a real lack of ability to sink and set ideally.

Thomas doesn't play like an alpha-dog wideout in all facets of the game. Throughout the rep, he doesn't always do well with hand fighting and sometimes plays smaller than he actually is. His ball tracking needs some work. His separation profile is spotty. One noticeable development on film was inconsistent concentration. Was that an effort issue or related to something else? Thomas's tape gave off faint shades of Pittsburgh Steelers wideout George Pickens (who has turned into a very quality NFL pass-catcher, for the record).

From Draft Network

Strengths:

  • Vertical speed
  • Tracking deep ball
  • Catch radius
Concerns:

  • Beating press-man
  • Running entire route tree


From PFF

SCOUTING SUMMARY

Thomas is the kind of player every offense wants for their vertical passing game plans. A former football and basketball star in high school, he is a big, tall and fast vertical threat who forces the defense to be honest about his ability to get behind them. His footwork and flexibility are fast and fluid for a big man.

From 2022-23, his releases became more effective at creating separation. He is also a willing and competitive blocker. He posted a career-high catch percentage in 2023, and that needs to continue moving forward.


From Profootballnetwork

Strengths​

  • Streamlined WR with elite length and efficient mass and is a premier athlete at his size.
  • Stack specialist with superlative explosiveness and speed working the vertical plane.
  • Has the long speed to create and sustain vertical separation, generating big plays.
  • Energetic, flexible long-strider who can vaporize tackling angles with his acceleration.
  • Crisp foot speed and agility allows him to off-set DBs with split and foot-fire releases.
  • Has good zone awareness and can use bend to keep speed while splicing into lanes.
  • Has the fluidity to cut double-moves at incredibly acute angles, leaving DBs in the lurch.
  • Can be intentional with his body lean at stems and capitalize with sharp flexibility.
  • Has shown he can use his length to wall off DBs while tracking deep passes vertically.
  • Flashes elite focus, body control, and hand-eye coordination in contested situations.
  • Naturally tracks the ball over his shoulder and can guide passes in without much space.
  • Authoritatively attacks the ball in the air with his reach, winning routinely at the point.
  • Has the awareness to adapt and create second-wave separation on scramble drills.
  • Makes quick RAC transitions and can use tempo modulations to swim past defenders.
  • Can be schemed RAC opportunities with long-strider speed and has crafty fluidity.

Weaknesses​

  • Has a relatively underdeveloped route tree past verticals, crossers, and drags.
  • Head fakes and stop-and-start moves aren’t always abrupt or deliberate enough to sell.
  • Can be a bit more consistent at fully pressing upfield into stems with his vertical speed.
  • Sometimes loses his balance when attempting to sink and hinge around on hitches.
  • Still learning how to stay controlled while channeling high-energy athleticism at stems.
  • Longer limbs make it harder to manage plant-and-drive footwork on sharp route breaks.
  • Still learning how to use targeted physicality in conjunction on releases and at stems.
  • At times, keeps hands too wide when attacking, which can source catch-point instability.
  • At times comes overtop and wrenches down high passes too much, increasing drop risk.
  • Has good RAC physicality but doesn’t have high-end play strength or contact balance.
  • Shows glimpses of great hustle and physicality as a blocker but can be more consistent.

From WalterFooball

Strengths:​

  • Tall receiver
  • Fast; can go vertical
  • Presents mismatch ability with size or speed
  • Playmaker
  • Explosive speed to get vertical
  • Threat to rip off a chunk gain on any reception
  • Deceptive speed
  • Burst to get downfield
  • Maintains speed throughout the route
  • Quick release off of the line
  • First-step quickness
  • Challenges the defense downfield
  • Body control
  • Quick feet
  • Leaping ability
  • Very good on contested catches
  • Dangerous to win 50-50 passes
  • Skill set of a No. 1 receiver for the NFL

Weaknesses:​

  • Doesn’t play to size
  • Not a good route runner
  • Not tough
  • Drops passes
 
He's not exactly one-dimensional, but he does "one" thing very well.

He's a WR that if he lands in Buffalo, w Allen's arm, becomes the #4 wr for me for fantasy.

There will probably be 6-7 guys better at the actual game
 
I saw deep passes, and I saw hitches. He breaks loose a few times, big deal.

I did not see any YAC worth speaking about.

He looks like a potential solid #2 WR. Maybe a great one. Gabe Davis-ish? MIke Williams? Can have 1,000 and 8-10 TDs, but I don't see a target monster.

We didn't see a lot of routes from him, but that does not mean he can't do them, to be clear. We just haven't seen him do it.
Slightly more polished Christian Watson (SEC vs FCS) is what I see. That's worth a late 1st in my opinion. I think he's in the 2nd tier with Mitchell and McConkey. Obviously landing spot will matter a lot. I've got him WR4 but could move him to WR6 pretty easily.

ETA: I think he has YAC skill. He's not a tackle breaker per se, but he's a guy who if he makes 1 guy miss, nobody else is catching him.
 
I think the big question pre-draft is who is the WR4? Is it Thomas, Franklin, or McConkey? Landing spot will dictate dynasty drafts, but doesn't necessarily dictate truth IMO.
 
I think the big question pre-draft is who is the WR4? Is it Thomas, Franklin, or McConkey? Landing spot will dictate dynasty drafts, but doesn't necessarily dictate truth IMO.

I like Thomas a tier above those guys. I also like both Texas and both Washington wrs, and a few others in a tier with Franklin and McConkey. Coleman, Wilson, Pearsol, Corley, Legette. I also think the top of this draft is being over-hyped and the depth is what makes the class so special. There's 11 in that tier, and the next tier is pretty good.
 

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